MADUAGWU CHUKWUEMEKA CHIBUEZE

PG/M.ENG/12/64352

An Appraisal of Highway Maintenance

Management in Nigeria

Department of Civil Engineering

Faculty of Engineering

Digitally Signed by:: Content manager’s Name

Nwamarah Uche
DN : CN = Weabmaster’s name

O= University of Nigeri
Nigeria, Nsukka

OU = Innovation Centre

1
 TITLE PAGE

An Appraisal of Highway Maintenance Management in Nigeria

By

MADUAGWU CHUKWUEMEKA CHIBUEZE

PG/M.ENG/12/64352

A PROJECT RESEARCH WORK

SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

UNIVERSITY OF NIGERIA NSUKKA

IN FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER

OF ENGINEERING

IN
CIVIL ENGINEERING CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT

SUPERVISOR: PROF O. O. UGWU

HEAD OF DEPARTMENT
CIVIL ENGINEERING
FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
UNIVERSITY OF NIGERIA, NSUKKA

AUGUST, 2014

2
 CERTIFICATION

This is to certify that Maduagwu Chukwuemeka Chibueze, in Civil

Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, University of Nigeria

Nsukka fully carried out this research work.

____________________________ August, 2014

Maduagwu Chukwuemeka C.

3
 APPROVAL PAGE

This work has been presented and approved by the department of Civil

Engineering, University of Nigeria Nsukka.

_________________________ _______________________
Date Engr. (Prof) O. O. Ugwu
Project Supervisor

_________________________ _______________________
Date Engr. (Prof) O. O. Ugwu
Head of Department

4
 DEDICATION

To the Almighty God for bringing me this far.

To my ever supportive parents, Ven. Dr. Charles and Dame Nne

Maduagwu.

To my siblings, Erinma, Amara, Paul and CJ for their encouragement.

To my bosses Engr. G. C. Amuchi and Engr. Rufus Onimisi for providing

me with the enabling environment for further studies.

To our able Secretary and colleague, Angela Akubuike and Uche Alioke

for painstakingly assisting me in typing and arrangement of this work.

To my indefatigable supervisor, Prof. O. O. Ugwu, for his huge source of

inspiration, encouragement and guidance that has made this work a

success.

5
 ABSTRACT

The primary objective of this work is to form the foundation of a Road

Management Maintenance System (RMMS) that Road Maintenance Agencies like

FERMA can immediately implement to make better decisions pertaining to

rehabilitation options. Further, this is to allow for appropriate decisions about the best

type of maintenance and rehabilitation interventions to apply to the poor state of

arterial roads taking into consideration various factors, least of which are the type and

extent of distress present and the benefit cost analysis. The outcome of this work will

assist sub-Saharan Africa, but principally Nigeria, in their goal of fostering economic

growth and creating a more sustainable transportation network. Recommendations on

how to simplify input factors necessary for Nigeria to initiate a database and prepare

more regionally specific designs have been made, including traffic, climatic and sub-

grade classifications. Economic analysis included present worth of costs (PWC) that

were derived from condition rating curves specific to intervention pavement life and

performance. Based on preliminary findings, subject to field validation, a chip-seal

specific rehabilitation strategy for low volume federal roads is more cost effective

over the 20-year analysis period and 1-lift Asphalt Concrete (AC) is more cost

effective over the 20-year analysis period for high volume federal roads.

Recommendations for further research have been made.

6
 DEFINITIONS

AASHO: American Association of State Highway officials

AASHTO: American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials
AC: Asphalt Concrete
ADT: Average Daily Traffic
ADTT: Average Daily Truck Traffic
AfDB: African Development Bank
ASSIST: African Programme of Advisory, Support, Information Services and
Training
CBR: Californian Bearing Ratio
ESAL: Equivalent Single Axle Load
FERMA: Federal Road Maintenance Agency
GDP: Gross Domestic Product
HDM4: Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Model
IBRD: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development
IDA: International Donor Agency
ILO: International Labour Organization
LGA: Local Government Authority
MR&R: Maintenance, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction
MTO: Ontario’s Ministry of Transportation
MTRSMMS: Medium Term Road Maintenance Management Strategy
NCHRP: National Cooperative Highway Research Program
NEEDS: National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy
PRMM: Performance Based Road Maintenance Management
PWC: Present Worth of Cost
ROCKS: Road Costs Knowledge System
RONET: Road Network Evaluation Tool
SATCC: Southern African Transport and Communications Commission
SRSE: Systematic Road Strengthening and Enhancement
SSA: Sub-Sahara Africa
SSATP: Sub-Saharan Africa Transport Policy
TRL: Transportation Research Laboratory
UCS: Unconfined Compressive Strength
UNCTAD: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
WASHO: Western Association of State Highway Officials

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 LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1: Generally, paved roads in Africa are poorly maintained creating a
fragmented system with significant potholing, shoulder deterioration
and unsafe driving
conditions…………………………………….…………….. 8

Figure 2.1: Nigeria is located in western Africa and borders Benin to the West Niger
to the North, Cameroon to the East and Chad to the Northeast
(CIA, 2008):…………..…………………………………………….………
16

Figure 2.2: Through the initiatives of FERMA and its approach to rehabilitating failed
Federal Roads, progress has been made in four years:………………
28

Figure 3.1: The paved Federal Road Network in Nigeria according to traffic
classification (Section 3.3):……………..………………………………….
46

Figure 3.2: Average daily traffic (ADT) and the percentage of heavy vehicles on
Federal Roads in
Nigeria:………………………………………………..……. 50

Figure 3.3: Designated Nigerian Federal Road traffic distribution for MR&R
interventions…….…………………………………………………...
50

Figure 3.4: The three major climatic zones of Nigeria………………………..…….

54

Figure 3.5: A visual condition rating from utilized by Arumala and Akpokodje (1987)
to evaluate pavement sin the Niger Delta. The form is not specific to
Nigeria………………………………………………………………….……..
61

Figure 3.6: A flexible pavement condition rating evaluation form utilized by

Ontario’s ministry of Transportation (MTO,
1989)…………………………………. 62

Figure 3.7: A surface-treated pavement condition evaluation form for distress

manifestations (MTO, 1989)………………………………………………
63

8
Figure 4.1: The prioritization process based on Overall Condition Rating (OCR)
and Roughness Condition Rating (RCR)
…………………………………….. 81

Figure 4.2: Condition rating curves for maintenance and rehabilitation interventions
for flexible pavements in Nigeria (adapted from Oguara and Iriakuma,
1987 and SATCC,
2001)………………………………………………….……. 91

Figure 4.3: Performance curves for chip seal rehabilitation of Federal Roads in
Nigeria………………………………………………..……………………
92

Figure 4.4: Performance curves for double surface seal rehabilitation of Federal
Roads in Nigeria …………………………………………………..……
92

Figure 4.5: Performance curves for a 1-lift asphalt concrete rehabilitation on

Federal Roads in
Nigeria………………………………………………………… 93

Figure 4.6: Performance curves for a 2-lift asphalt concrete rehabilitation on

Federal Roads in
Nigeria………………………………………………………… 93

Figure 4.7: Performance curves for a chip seal with and without a stabilized base.
A condition rating shift has been applied to account of the improved
overall pavement condition, resulting in an improved longevity of the
intervention by 1
year…………………………………………………………….…..…. 94

Figure 4.8: Performance curves for a chip seal with a stabilized base for Federal
Roads in Nigeria…………………………………..…………………………..
94

Figure 4.9: Performance curves for a double surface seal with a stabilized base for
Federal Roads in Nigeria………………………………………………..
95

Figure 4.10: Performance curves for a 1-lift asphalt concrete with a stabilized base
for Federal Roads in
Nigeria……………………………………………….….. 95

9
Figure 4.11: Performance curves for a 1-lift asphalt concrete with a stabilized base
for Federal Roads in
Nigeria………………………………………….……….. 96

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 LIST OF TABLES

Table 2.1: Projects in Nigeria that have exhibited pavement failure…………….

25

Table 3.1: Comparison between three subgrade classification systems used in

sub-Saharan
Africa………………………………………………………….... 48

Table 3.2: Traffic data for the major Federal Roads in Nigeria
(FERMA, 2007)……………………………………………….………………
51

Table 3.3: Truck factors utilized for determining pavement loading where data is
unavailable (SATCC, 2001)……………………………………….………
52

Table 3.4: Typically flexible pavement designs that should be applied to Nigerian
Federal Roads according to ORN 31 (TRL, 1993)…………………….…
65

Table 3.5: Road Costs Knowledge System (ROCKS) data for Africa (median cost
per two-lane km except Routine maintenance, which is per lane
km)………………………………………………………………………
66

Table 3.6: Nigerian projects contained in the ROCKS database with

costing……………………………………………………………..…….
67

Table 3.7: Data from RONET (World Bank, 2007b) on MR&R interventions for
asphalt roads in Nigeria…………………………………………….…….
72

Table 4.1: RONET Optimal Work Strategy output for Nigeria’s Federal Road
Network………………………………………………………………..
76

Table 4.2: Physical Distress Rating (PDR) criteria…………………………….

80

Table 4.3: Roughness Distress Rating (RDR) criteria………………………..

80

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Table 4.4: A guide to classifying condition rating according to observed or
recorded distress (MTO, 1989)…………………………………..
…………….. 82

Table 4.5: Adjustment factors based on traffic classification to be utilized for

priority analysis
………………………………………………………………… 84

Table 4.6: Input variables used for PWC and LCCA analyses……………….
87

Table 4.7: PWC for Low Volume Nigeria Federal Roads at a 12% discount
rate…………………………………………………………………….
98

Table 4.8: PWC for Low Volume Nigeria Federal Roads at a 6% discount
rate……………………………………………………………………...
98

Table 4.9: PWC for high traffic Federal roads in Nigeria at a 12% discount
rate……………………………………………………………………
99

Table 4.10: PWC results for high traffic Federal Roads in Nigeria at a 6% discount
rate…………………………………………………………..
………………..99

Table 4.11: Rank of rehabilitation strategy according to PWC for low volume
federal roads…………………………………………..……………
…………….. 104

Table 4.12: Rank of rehabilitation strategy according to PWC for high traffic federal
roads…………………………………………………..….
107

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 TABLE OF CONTENTS

Title Page:- - - - - - - - - - - i

Certification: - - - - - - - - - - ii

Approval Page: - - - -- - - - - - iii

Dedication: - - - - - - - -- - iv

Abstract: - - - - - - - - - - v

Definitions: - - - - - - - - - - vi

List of figures: - - - - - - - - - vii

List of tables: - - - - - - - - - - ix

Table of contents: - - - - - - - - - xi

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION: - - - - - - 1

1.1 Introduction : - - - - - - - 1

1.2 Objectives: - - - - - - - - - 5

1.3 Research Methodology: - - - - - - - 6

CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW: - - - - - 7

2.1 African Transport:- - - - - - - - 7

2.1.1 A Brief History: - - - - - - - 12

2.1.2 Specific Transport Issues in Africa: - - - - 14

2.2 Nigeria: - - - - - - - - - 16

2.3 Nigerian Roads Sector: - - - - - - - 19

2.3.1 Nigerian Road Distresses: - - - - - 24

2.3.2 FERMA: - - - - - - - - 27

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2.4 Transparency: - - - - - - - - 30

2.5 Pavement Design Theory: - - - - - - 31

2.5.1 Nigerian Pavement Design: - - - - - 33

2.5.2 HDM-III and HDM-IV: - - - - - - 34

2.6 Pavement Design Inputs: - - - - - - 36

2.6.1 Subgrade Type: - - - - - - - 36

2.6.2 Asphalt Cement: - - - - - - - 38

2.6.3 Traffic Data: - - - - - - - - 39

2.7 Pavement Management: - - - - - - 40

2.8 Summary: - - - - - - - - - 42

CHAPTER 3: DATA SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY: - - - - 44

3.1 Data Sources: - - - - - - - - 44

3.2 Subgrades: - - - - - - - - - 47

3.3 Traffic: - - - - -- - - - - 49

3.4 Environment: - - - - - - - - - 53

3.5 Conditions: - - - - - - - - - 54

3.6 Typical Pavement Designs: - - - - - - - 59

3.7 Nigerian Maintenance and Rehabilitation Costs: - - - - 64

3.8 Pavement Service Life: - - - - - - - 69

3.9 Summary: - - - - - - - - - 70

CHAPTER 4: FLOW DIAGRAMS, DESIGN TREES AND

LIFE CYCLE COSTING: - - - - - - - - 73

4.1 RONET: - - - - - - - - - 73

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 4.1.1 RONET Analysis: - - - - - - - 75

4.1.2 RONET Results: - - - - - - - 76

4.2 Optimum Maintenance Strategy: - - - - - 78

4.3 Cost Model and Life Cycle Cost Analysis: - - - - 83

4.3.1 Performance Curves: - - - - - - 86

4.3.2 PWC Calculations: - - - - - - - 90

4.4 Discussion of Results: - - - - - - - 100

4.4.1 Low Traffic Volume Road: - - - - - 101

4.4.2 High Traffic Volume Roads: - - - - - 103

4.5 Summary: - - - - - - - - - 106

CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS: - - 108

5.1 Conclusions: - - - - - - - - - 108

5.2 Recommendations: - - - - - - - - 111

5.3 Suggestions for Further/Future Research:- - - - - 113

REFERENCES: - - - - - - - - - 114

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 CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

As the curtains drew on the last decade, there was a paradigm shift
by International donor agencies involved in Sub Saharan Africa away
from funding of infrastructure projects toward those relating to health
and education (social projects). Between 1980 – 1984 the share of total
donor funding to infrastructure projects was close to 25%, whereas it
had decreased to less than 10% by the 21st century (AFDB working
group, 2006). Much of this has been due to the higher prevalence and
understanding of the impact of HIV/AIDS scourge, not to mention
malaria, on the economic development of the developing world.
However, this shift away from infrastructure projects has come at a cost,
as there has been an under appreciation of social and economical
impacts, that transportation infrastructure, irrespective of functional
classification can have on the economic growth of a country. It would
appear that the line has only just been drawn to connect the dots
between the appreciation for roads and basic access being directly
related to health and education. Clearly, there is a balance between
funding of road infrastructure and funding of health and social projects,
given the interconnection of these sectors.

With the exception of few Countries, Sub Saharan Africa is unique

in that roads that have been created are inefficient and insufficient to
spawn and sustain growth. Also these roads require not only substantial
maintaining and rehabilitation, but also substantial new road
construction. Many nations that have not had the opportunity to fully

16
develop road infrastructure systems are now discovering that the
standards and methods from neighbouring or western countries which
they have been relying upon are not altogether applicable to their
circumstances (Arumala and Akpokodje, 1987). This inapplicability stems
from differing climatic circumstances (heavy rain events) complex and
deep stratography of soils, highly plastic and highly decomposed
materials, and increasing transport distances of materials to the
construction site. There is also a difference in terms of need that is not
addressed in the standard manuals and application guidelines of other
countries.

Road infrastructure is critical to economic development, both low

volume/rural roads and major arterials. There is a direct relationship
between a country’s economic prosperity and kilometres of paved road.
(Owen, 1964; Queiroz and Gantam, 1992). There are many papers and
reports on the merits of the rural road sector, World Bank’s sub Saharan
African Transport Policy being a major source, (World Bank, 1996). It is
also a fact that all-season passability and lack of basic access to rural
communities impedes economic growth. There is also need to further
develop, effectively manage maintenance practices on and rehabilitate
the major trunk system within these countries. These will enable the
countries to sustain and accommodate economic growth brought about
by improved rural mobility.

In the case of Nigeria, as the thesis demands, the major arterial

network is in such disrepair and dilapidation that sustained immediate
action is required.

17
 The period between 1970 and 1982 played the most part in
Nigerian road development efforts. Most of the roads were constructed
with a life span of between ten and fifteen years. While there was
nothing wrong with this design life span, it was the neglect of a follow-
up maintenance regime that did worst damage to the road network. So,
by 1982, therefore, the roads built in 1970 had completed their
functional lifespan with their optimal performance life cycle between
1992 and 1995.

In other words, most of the roads constructed during the oil boom
years had collapsed by 1995. (FERMA 2008).

Looking back with hindsight now, the travesty that occurred was
instead of developing a programme of back rolling the terrible situation
in which we found ourselves we embarked on an unending journey of
rehabilitation of road network. In a country that is so rich in potential,
pavement infrastructure is critical. The enactment of FERMA ACT on
30th November, 2002 gave Nigeria, a singular platform for structured
and institutional mechanisms to address road maintenance.

“Transport is the lifeline of the economy and social interactions. An

inefficient transport system implies stagnation in all sectors” (Olusegun
Obasanjo, 1999). The formation of Federal roads Maintenance Agency
(FERMA), the publication of its strategy for roads sector maintenance
management (FERMA, 2003) and most recently “Preventive Road
maintenance initiative, (FERMA 2012) may be the injection needed to
realise this.

After decades of Civil strife and repression Nigeria has finally

embarked upon what appears to be a more democratic chapter in its

18
history. Unfortunately, the years of negligent spending and misdirected
national policy have left a national transportation infrastructure system
in need of desperate rehabilitation and modernisation, especially if the
millennium development goals are to be realised, and the 20-2020 plan
of becoming the 20th largest economy in the world by 2020 is to be
realised (FERMA 2008). Much of the road network requires some form or
other of maintenance, rehabilitation and reconstruction (MR&R).
However, this must be done with historical data and funding. What are
abundant is desire and seeming commitment to improvement.

The intent of this work is to assist sub-saharan African Countries,

principally Nigeria through FERMA, streamline its MR&R interventions. It
is particularly poignant given that African Development Bank’s country
strategy Paper (AFAS, 2005) identifies one of the major transportation
issues as the absence of a maintenance plan and the primary objective
of Nigeria’s Medium Term Road Maintenance Management Strategy
(MTRSMMS) or to apply preventive measures that will help to stabilize
the structural strength of Road pavement. To accomplish these a
generic framework that includes a series of decision tables and flow
charts will be developed based on the functional class of the road, traffic
volumes and loads, distress type and event, and the existing pavement
layer design. It is envisaged that engineers at the Federal, Zonal and
State levels with be able to utilize this proposed framework to determine
one of a suite of focussed and appropriate MR&R alternatives that can
be used to better assess, based on available budget and ability to carry
our maintenance, which intervention is most appropriate.

In essence a tool kit by which engineer can make appropriate

decisions would be ideal. Further, with respect to those roads that
19
require major rehabilitation or reconstruction, mix design guidelines
should be provided to ensure that layers that are reconstructed are
completed to meet the climate, load and future traffic volume.

1.2 OBJECTIVES

The objective of this thesis is to provide assistance to sub-saharan

African nations in making appropriate decision about the best type of
MR&R intervention to apply to the poor state of arterial roads. Such
decisions will be contextual and would answer various questions, least of
which are the type and extent of distress present and the benefit cost
Analysis.

A secondary objective is to provide FERMA with analysis of its mix

designs and re-evaluate them to allow for more appropriate pavements
to be constructed. It is recognised that these objectives need to be
balanced against regional issues that include;

Soils – condition and variability

Materials – quality and availability

Budget constraints

Maintenance capacity

Traffic type and volume

Experience and availability of partitions

20
1.3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

The methodology for this research includes an in-depth review of

current road building practices in Africa with a special focus on Nigeria.
Determination and expansion on data sources and how they can be
better formatted for use by pavement Engineers, and life cycle cost
analysis will be performed on various rehabilitation options. This will
provide FERMA with logical information on when to implement
rehabilitation interventions.

21
 CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

This chapter will attempt to convey the issues, principally from a

transportation standpoint that are not only facing Nigeria but Africa as a
whole. After having read this chapter the reader should have an
appreciation of the differences between Western Transport-related
issues and those being experienced in Nigeria and the reasons for them.
This chapter is not intended to provide an exhaustive account of all
aspects relating to transportation in Nigeria, however it will provide the
necessary background and references for a more detailed account of the
subject and further works, including the principles of road design and
asset management.

2.1 AFRICAN TRANSPORT

The continent boasts of a population of over 900 million in the

face of abundant natural resources. Yet it remains stagnated, poor and
underdeveloped. One of the resounding reasons for not having the
ability to reach its potential is the poor state of road infrastructure,
which the World Bank (2008) highlights as a principal reason that is
keeping the African continent from progressing. In Africa, inadequate
transport is the norm rather than exception.

Africa is poorly serviced with roads. The road density is on the

average 7km per 100 square km (AFDB, 2003), which is low when
compared with other developing regions, such as Latin America and Asia

22
with 12km and 18km respectively per 100 sq km (World bank, 2007).
The significant difference is partly due to diverse levels of development
in general but it also reflects the basic geographic fact that Africa is a
large continent, often with vast distances between main population and
production centres. The large size of the continent and the wide spread
of population only raises the significance of transport in almost all
development decisions. This lack of adequate transportation impacts on
the level of business activity by lowering productivity and limiting the
entry of new business enterprises. Business as in Africa either supply to
fragmented regional markets, or restrict themselves to market
opportunities with profits large enough to cover the high transport costs
(Ramachandran, 2008).

Backlogs in maintenance and inefficiencies in operations have

serious effects in many other sectors. Expensive and poor quality trunk
services (figure 2.1) reduce the competitiveness of African products. As
noted, typical pavements exhibit severe potholing and shoulder
deterioration.

Fig. 1.1 Generally paved roads in Africa are poorly maintained causing
potholing and shoulder deterioration. (e.g Enugu – Onitsha Road).

23
 The relative sparse road network does not imply lack of
importance of road transport. Rather, road transport is the most
important mode. Decades of under capitalization, poor management and
general neglect of the railways have propelled road transport to the
most important means of transport in Africa. Road transport accounts
for over 80% of all freight and passenger movements in Africa and there
are no signs that the position will change in the foreseeable future
(AFDB, 2003).

The existing road networks in sub-saharan African countries were

originally established to service the specific needs and interests of the
colonial powers who utilized Africa as import and export market to fuel
domestic economic growth. Therefore, after having achieved
independence, African nations inherited a transportation system that
was outward looking rather than geared towards improved trade and
transport with neighbouring countries (AFDB, 2003). One of the early
goals of the independent African nations was to break this pattern of
dependence and create new, User African ties.

One of the such project was the East-West Mombasa –Lagos Trans
– African Highway as a means to encourage inter – African trade and
development. This project, however, provides valuable insight into why
international donour aid into Africa has largely failed in the past. As early
as 1969, the Japanese Government proposed extending the Mombasa
Highway to Lagos, Nigeria on the Atlantic Ocean into a four lane, 6,260
kilometres paved highway. By 1971 the deal had the support of all six
nations through which the route would pass (Kenya, Uganda, Zaire now
the Democratic Republic of Congo), Central African Republic, Cameroon
and Nigeria) and six International aid Agencies.
24
 They hoped to have at least two lanes open by 1978. It did not
take long for problems to emerge. Dictator Idi Amin took control of
Uganda and threatened Kenya, which then closed the highway. The
fight reflected a constant plague for foreign aid to Africa – corrupt
dictators, and donors who gave them money to protect political and
economic interest. Nowhere was this exchange clearer than in Zaire,
now known as the Democratic Republic of Congo. Zaire needed to build
roads from scratch, however the country was ruled by Mobutu Sese
Seko, one of the most brutal dictators on African history. Mobutu took
power during the cold war, at a time when the United State and the
Soviet Union were scrambling for influence in Africa. Billions of dollars
powered into Zaire to keep him happy, and to maintain the flow of
Zairian gold, diamonds and coppers to the West. Mobutu stopped plans
for the highway in 1974. Despite Mobutu in Zaire, the road in Kenya
remained in good condition and by 1970’s Kenya’s economy was
booming. A further underlying problem which soon came to bare was
the lack of a maintenance plan to keep the critical asset in a functioning
capacity.

However, most recently, there is a new awakening which

necessitated a meeting of stakeholders in the road sector in Africa, from
16th – 19th April 2013. It was the 15th Forum of the Association of
African Road managers and Practitioners (AGEPAR), and the theme of
their meeting was. ‘construction of Trans – African Roads’: Strategies
and Prospects”

Cameroon’s Minster of Public Works, Patrice Amba Salla, said

irrespective of concerted effort to integrate the continent through good
roads, desired results are yet to be attained. With the absence of trans-
25
African rail infrastructure and the improper functioning of air transport,
roads remain the surest way of integrating and developing the
continent.

Participants at the Yaounde confab were unanimous that with the

setting up of the association, there is already light at the end of the
tunnels. This is justified by on-going as well as yet – to – begin trans –
African road infrastructural projects like the Morubassa – Lagos Trans –
African road comprising the 700km Kisangani – bangassan road, 441km
Bossembele – Garoua Banlai road, the 95km Meidougou – Garoua Boulai
road, the 326km foumbam Tibati as well as the 225km Bamenda –
Ekisk/Mfum roads, others include the Dakar – Ndjamena road, Lagos –
Nouakchott road, et al.

There are a multitude of examples that can be provided to help

illustrate the general State of transportation in Africa and how it differs
from roads in the developed world. For those not having had the
privilege of setting foot into sub-saharan Africa it is difficult to fully
appreciate how desperate the situation is.

From a Western perspective, it is important to note that roads

serve a multitude of functions, other than transport as is perceived in
sub-saharan Africa. It is commonplace for major roads to dissect towns
and cities rather than circumnavigating them. Major routes and roads in
general, serve not only as transport routes but also provide a meeting
place for the local community where markets are established and a
community interacts.

26
2.1.1. A BRIEF HISTORY

There have been two distinct modern eras in road transport in

Africa. The first major era described as the road and motor vehicle
sector boom era, was between the early 1960’s and 1980’s. This era
overlapped with the united nations transport and communications
decade for Africa (1978 – 1988), whose objectives included final
construction and improvement of the major highway and the
development of rural roads (Akinyemi 1998).

During this period, new road construction and reconstruction

consumed on the average approximately 1.1% of the gross domestic
products (GDP) of each country. (Mason and Thriscutt, 1989). Further,
there was significant investment by IDA’s, such as the European Union
which invested over USD $3 billion on road projects between 1970 to
1990.

Meanwhile, during the same period, the economy of many

countries started to stagnate. Much of the stagnation was a
consequence of political change away from democratic rule, resulting in
immediate lack of funding for infrastructure that was needed to maintain
and increase the transportation network. For examples, in Nigeria,
despite average maintenance expenditure that were 70% to 500%
higher than the desirable routine maintenance expenditure in other
developing countries, as well as adoption of several maintenance
approaches, potholes and bumps were ubiquitous on the roads
(Akinyemi, 1983). In a survey carried out by Mason and Thriscutt (1989)
on roads in west and central Africa between 1951 and 1952, it was now
noted that 4% of paved roads were sealed, strengthened or

27
reconstructed each year, while 3% of surfaced dressed roads were
either re-surfaced or rehabilitated. At the end of the survey period, more
than 50% of asphalted roads and 20% to 30% of surface dressed roads
required rehabilitation. The increase in the poor state of both rural and
arterial roads further stagnated economic growth and produced a
discontinuous, inefficient road network. Worsening these issues was the
disproportionately high cost of transportation, where families were
spending as much as 45% of their income on transportation, not to
mention expenditure of time that was required to do so, due to the poor
state of the roads.

With increased international realization and concern about the

problems, the second major era, described by Akinyemi (2001) as the
era of “externally initiated and financed transport sector reform
programmes, started around the end of the 1980’s and the early 1990’s.
One of the well known programmes was the World Bank’s sub Saharan
African Transport Programme (SSATP), which was intended to help
improve and sustain transport efficiency through policy reform and
institutional improvement. Another major programme was the
International Labour Organization’s (ILO) African Programme of Advisory
support, information Services and Training (ASSIST) for labour based
infrastructure works.

The current era in Africa is looking at improving trans – African

trade and connectivity. A comprehensive African trunk road framework
that will connect all African nations together with major arterials is
currently being carried out. To what extent it can be completed or face
the issues that the Mombassa – Lagos Trans African Highway did
remains to be seen.
28
2.1.2 SPECIFIC TRANSPORT ISSUES IN AFRICA

The World Bank specifically indicates that poor transport

infrastructure and services in sub-saharan Africa are serious obstacles to
poverty reduction (Plessis – Fraissard, 2007). Two thirds of Africa’s rural
population, who are also the same 300 million of the world’s poorest
people do not have access to an – all weather road. They are locked into
subsistence living, cut off from health care and education. Generally,
there is a major fraction of rural Africa that is cut – off places of
economy for at least one part of the year due to the lack of all season
passability of basic access routes. The majority of these routes are earth
roads that could benefit from simple pavement management.

On the other hand, while the majority of roads in sub-saharan

Africa (SSA) are un-surfaced roads, arterial roads are also a major
obstacle to not only poverty reduction, but impose a high burden on
African’s economic development. An efficient operation of urban
transport infrastructure is required to avoid bottlenecks that constrain
growth in other sectors. Africa’s unit transport cost are typically three to
five times higher than those of developed countries (World Bank, 2006),
which is one of the principal reasons why SSA contributes only 2% to
world trade.

These bad arterial roads restrict further economic development

through high vehicle operating cost, land transport times and general
poor and unsafe driving conditions of the roads. This is further
exacerbated due to the almost non-existent or inoperable state of the
waterway and rail transit system in the country placing further stains on
an already stressed road infrastructure.

29
 The high cost of transport in Africa seriously undermines growth
prospects on the continent (Henderson et-al 2001). A United Nations
Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) study on African
transport infrastructure (UNCTAD, 1990) highlighted the comparative
disadvantage of Africa in relation to other continents. On average,
freight cost are 5 percentage points higher in Sub-saharan Africa than
the average for all developing countries (11.41% for Africa versus 7.08
for America and 7.97 in Asia). In land locked African countries, the
situation is even worse, as costs are typically 10 percent higher
(18.79%). If Northern Africa is removed from the equation and only
Sub-saharan African economics are considered, the estimated total
freight costs on imports is 15.36% (UNCTAD 1999). In a study of
transport cost and trade, Limao and Venables (2000) found that poor
infrastructure accounted for 60% of transport cost for landlocked
countries, opposed to 40% for coastal countries. It is no wonder that
Africa ‘s Land locked countries are some of the poorest in the World (e.g
Chad). Whereas, Amjadi and Yeats (1995) found that the relatively low
level of sub-saharan African export is essentially due to high transport
costs.

Road accidents are Africa’s third largest Killer (Williams, 2003).

Traffic accidents cost 1% to 3% of Gross national product (GNP) as road
accident fatalities increased by 20 to 30% annually, and caused between
50-200 fatalities per 10,000 vehicles during this era of transport
(Akinyemi, 2001). In addition, 30-60% of the traffic fatalities involved
vulnerable road users like passengers and commuters. (TRRL, 1991).

30
2.2 NIGERIA

Nigeria covers an area of 924,000km2 in western Africa and is the

most populated African nation with 138,283,240 people (CIA, 2008).
Extending from the Atlantic Ocean in the South to the fringes of the
Sahara desert as the north (Figure 2.1). It has common borders with the
Republics of Benin, Niger, Chad and Cameroon.

Nigeria is supposedly composed of over 250 ethnic groups, with 36

States and 1 territory (Federal Capital Territory). It is mainly between a
Christian South and an Islamic North. The average of about 150 persons
per km2 masks the considerable differences that exist between the
densely populated South East of the country where the majority of the
urban population is concentrated, and less densely populated north.
Close to 60% of the population live in rural areas. A staggering 70% of
the population live below the poverty line.

31
With a GDP of approximately US$ 40 billion, Nigeria is currently African’s
largest economy, yet about two thirds of the population live below the
national poverty line. The average annual per Capita income stands at a
level of US$ 320.

The following additional statistics will help to provide a more

accurate impression of Nigeria, and the uphill battle confronting it. They
are;

52% of the population, over 70 million, live on less than a dollar a

day (Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, 2006)

Gross National Income (GNI) per capita is US$ 640
(Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, 2006)

Enrolment in primary education is around 65%, but there are wide
regional and gender disparities (DFID, 2007)

Average life expectancy in Nigeria is 47 years (DFID, 2007)

1 in 5 children die before the age of 5 (DFID, 2007)

Approximately 800 per 100,000 women die at child birth, although
this may exceed 1000 per 100,000 in some region (DFID, 2007)
• 44% of 15-49 year olds (2.6 million people) are living with HIV
and AIDS (DFID, 2007)
• The average annual growth rate between 2000 and 2006 was
under 6%
• Nigeria has the third highest number of poor people in the
world after China and India (AFDB, 2005)
• 45% of the population has access to safe and clean water.
• The Median age is 18.9 years.
• Approximately 70% of the population are below 30 years.
(CBN 2011).
32
 In May, 2004 the Federal Government finalised the National
Economic Empowerment and Development strategy (NEEDS), which
together with the state level (SEEDS) forms Nigeria’s home groom
strategy for growth and poverty reduction (AFDB, 2005). Nigeria has
made good progress on the implementation of key elements of the
reform program particularly in the fight against corruption. However,
despite progress recorded, major economic and structural challenges
persist. These include the achievement of a more diversified economy
away from the oil sector, improvement of education and health service
delivery especially to the poor, combating the spread of HIV/AIDS,
enhancement of social and economic infrastructure, particularly water
and power supply and transport and achieving food security.

Nigeria’s economy is largely dependent on oil production with

agriculture a very distant second (30% of GDP) and is generally not
diversified beyond the oil sector. Over the past 8 years, the oil industry
has contributed on average 38% of GDP. In 2004, proceeds from oil
exports amounted to 97% of all exports and in 2005 oil and gas
accounted for 77% of all government revenues (AFDB, 2005). The
reliance on oil and the importance of diversifying the economy was
evident over four decades. Owen (1964) identified that the reliance on
oil presented an unstable economy that was at the mercy of this
commodity and that any softening of this sector would significantly
impact the Nigerian economy. Owen (1964) stressed the importance of
improving the transport infrastructure and stressed that inadequate
investment on transport reduces the effectiveness of investment
elsewhere, which is something Nigeria cannot afford to happen.

33
However, little has changed when we look at today’s outlook and
priorities for change.

At the heart of all Nigeria’s problems is the absence of a solid and

reliable transportation infrastructure system. The African Development
Bank’s Country Strategy Paper for Nigeria (AFDB, 2005), outlines that
poor maintenance due to inadequate allocations of funds and in some
cases, faulty design and construction due to lack of institutional capacity
or poor contract administration is at the root of our problems.

2.3 NIGERIAN ROADS SECTOR

The performance of Nigeria’s roads sector has not been

satisfactory despite its enormous potentials for growth and development
Traditionally, the poor transport facilities and infrastructure have
seriously delayed economic development and this weakened transport
infrastructure has contributed negatively in efforts to reduce poverty.
The Nigerian inland waterways and railways are very ineffective, as road
transport accounts for 90% of the internal movement of goods and
people, which makes the recovery of the roads from its present grave
state very imperative.

There have been essentially four major road construction

movements in Nigerian history. The first major initiative dates back to
1925 when the Road board was established by the then colonial
administration. As of 1951, approximately 1800km of roads of the
44,414km total were surfaced. This represents 4.05% of the total road.

While these roads served to open up Nigeria, they were lacking

standard designs, had sharp serves (e.g Enugu – Awka Old Road,
34
though Milken Hill) and were constructed on weak sub-grades. The
growth of economic activities (oil) prompted the need for improved
roads and by 1952, 15,785km of bituminous road and 75,200km of
earth roads were in place. This short period of road improvement could
be considered the second wave of pavement infrastructure
implementation, the total paved road density increased from about
17km per 1000km2 in 1960 to about 160km per 1000km2 in 1979. The
third major effort at road construction occurred after the civil war in
1970 where the majority of major arterial were constructed, which are
the same roads that are in use today. Also, in the 1980’s a massive rural
road construction programme resulted in rural road densities increasing
to as much as 490km per 1000km2 in some Nigerian States (Akinyemi,
1983. The fourth phase of pavement infrastructure growth is upon us
now where the approximate 195,000km of Nigerian roads requires
immediate rehabilitation and reconstruction if the country is to forge
ahead on its pursuit of economic stability and development, especially
the highly vital economic routes, linking several States and zones.

Of the 195,000km of classified roads contained with the Nigerian

network, 32,100km (16.5%) are Federal Roads, linking States Capital
and other major towns to one another: 30,900km (15.5%) are state
roads linking towns and major settlements; and, the remaining
132,000km (67.7%) are Local Government Authority (LGA) roads,
linking smaller communities to one another and the Local Government
Headquarters. More than 80% of the network is either in fair or poor
condition (AFDB, 2007).

35
 The Bureau of Public Enterprises (2008) outlined four key issues
with road transport in Nigeria that are obstacles for progress and for
engaging private sector participation. They include;

2.3.1 INADEQUATE MAINTENANCE:

The road network suffers from inadequate routine maintenance,

neglect of periodic maintenance and absence of emergency maintenance
in areas affected by embankment washouts, flood, storms, and other
natural calamities. Absence of adequate road maintenance shortens the
useful life of the roads, thus resulting in premature and expensive road
construction, while poor surfaces increases the operating costs of
vehicles and has significant effect on the safety of the roads. (BPE 2008)

2.3.2 MISUSE OF ROADS:

A major cause of declining roads infrastructure is the misuse of

roads due to overloaded trucks. Excessively high axle loads on paved
roads especially during the rainy season contribute substantially to
reducing life expectancy of roads. (BPE 2008)

2.3.3 DEPENDENCE ON ROADS:

The dependence on roads in Nigeria at the present time is almost

total because of collapse of the Nigerian railway and the comatose
condition of air traffic. It is estimated that between 90 – 95% of the
total transport movements is on the road network. Therefore, freight
and bulk goods are carried over long distances by trucks and tractor
trailers. (BPE 2008)

36
2.3.4 POOR INTER-MODAL TRANSPORT SYSTEM:

A comprehensive transportation concept that interconnects the

various transport modes (eg. Road, water/sea, rail) to make the most
use of their individual advantages does not exist at the present time in
Nigeria. Hence, freight transports are generally not carried by the most
appropriate transport mode, Bulk goods are carried over long distances
by, trucks and tractor-trailers where as alternative transport
infrastructure is available if they are maintained, and; (BPE 2008)

2.3.5 INSTITUTIONAL ISSUES:

The Federal Ministry of Works and the Federal Roads Maintenance

Agency manages the entire Federal roads network. Their respective
state governments manage state roads, while the remaining roads are
under the jurisdiction of the local government authorities.

The State of Nigerian roads has remained poor for a number of

reasons. The principal reason is that poor quality of roads were
constructed in the first instance, due to a combination of faulty designs,
lack of drainage, thin wearing course coverings and negligible quality
control. Furthermore, funding of road maintenance has been grossly in-
adequate. The Central Bank of Nigeria (2003) indicates that since
economic reform in 1999, less than 10% of funding request made by
Federal Ministry of Works was received, while a little over half of that
received by the Ministry was released. A third reason for the poor state
of roads is the excessive traffic volume and loads being applied to
pavement. The reliance on road travel is exacerbated by the poor state
of railway, waterway transport infrastructure.

37
 Lastly, there appears to be little or no appreciation for
maintenance, and when decisions are made, in most cases they are
influenced by politics and not the actual maintenance needs.

In a 2002 survey conducted by the Central Bank of Nigeria (2008)

on the state of roads in Nigeria, a questionnaire along with usual
inspections were undertaken on 6 geographical areas (South East, South
West, South - South, North East, North West and North Central). The
survey indicated that most of the roads, especially in the Southern areas
were in poor conditions and required complete rehabilitation. The story
was relatively the same with roads in the Northern zones. Some roads
constructed over 30 years ago had not had any rehabilitation
interventions at all, resulting in major longititudinal and transverse
cracking depressions, broken bridges and numerous potholes that make
transport both very slow, costly and unsafe.

The survey concluded that some of the roads require total

rehabilitation and asphalt overlay, re-instatement of the shoulders, filling
of potholes (that can swallow cars) and re-building of collapsed bridges
(Central Bank of Nigeria, 2003). All these with a limited budget.

The majority of documentation on road design materials and

projects stems from the Southern part of Nigeria. This is little surprise
given the dense population and the presence of oil resources. In the
decade prior to 1986, three of the most important dual carriageway
were constructed. These included Lagos – Ibadan, Benin – Lagos, Port
Harcourt – Enugu dual carriageway. Within 10 years, sections of these
roads were exhibiting mild to severe failures, which were attributable to

38
the utilization of inappropriate materials, or inappropriate design given
the marginal material available. (Akpokodje, 1986).

2.3.6 NIGERIAN ROAD DISTRESS

History has shown that roads, even if the proper design has been
prepared it is unlikely that the road will be constructed to this standard
due to poor quality control resulting in inadequate compaction,
thicknesses and pavement quality (Pollit, 1950). There is little surprise
that the majority of studies on the cause of failures of road pavement
have revolved around the Southern part of Nigerian as this is where the
majority of roads have been constructed and where some of the more
complex environmental constraints are imposed (high water table,
rainfall, etc). Several examples of key projects that have had widespread
failure and the reasons for these failures are presented in Table 2.1

In a study on the geotechnical properties of the soils of South –

Eastern Nigeria and their evaluation for road construction, Akpokodje
(1986) concluded that pavement failure appear to be more extensive on
the outer lanes and pointed to the fact that all slow moving heavy trucks
and failures tended to use the outer lanes (except when overtaking). In
sections where the pavement is built on the highly weathered shale sub-
grade, widespread failures have occurred. Such failures are presumably
initiated in the sub-grade, which has very low dry density and
consequently low load – bearing capacity, poor drainage conditions in
same parts of the road accelerate the failure process of the sub-grade.

39
Table 2.1: Projects In Nigeria That Have Exhibited Failure
(source: consolidate of various literature)
Project Location Reason for failure Author
Port – Harcourt – Enugu Dual South – East  Poor field compaction Akpokodje 1986
Carriageway  Inferior pavement materials
 Particle size distribution and
plasticity of the majority of the
soils indicate that they are
unsuitable for base materials
were used.
Port Harcourt – Patani – Warri South – East  Due to sub surface flow, the Abam et al, 2000
Road road acted like a dam
 Poor quality aggregate
 Changes in pavement condition
due to interaction of local road
aggregates with water caused
severing, stripping and
potholing.
Ado – Ekiti South-West  Cohesive soils have an Jedege, 2000
excessively high fraction (20%)
 High liquid limit of soils greater
than 30
 Low CBR of soils
Lagos – Ibadan South-West  Twelve geotechnical properties Adeyemi, G. O.
were investigated and Oyeyemi, F.
 Statistically, differences 1998
indicated failures in areas of
higher fines content (<75
microns)
Ife – Akure South-West  Limited pre-engineering of Mesida, E. A.
various types of fill course 1986
materials
 Fine grained micacous clayey
and silty soils used extensively
as base course materials
Nine Major Roads Niger Delta  Very poor pavement Arumala, J. O.
performance in seasonal and Akpokodje, E.
flooded area. Caused by use of G (1987)
highly substandard soil
materials.
 Poor design, high water table
and failure to adhere to design
specifications.
 No in-situ soils of the Niger
Delta meet standard
specifications of acceptable
base course materials.

40
 During the wet season (average precipitation of 2,500mm/year),
under cemented ditches between the dual carriageway and on both
sides of the carriageway, are permanently water logged, resulting in the
ingress of water into the sub-grade and base courses.

Failed roads exhibit a multitude of distresses. Distress in the form

of Cracks of various geometric patterns, rutting and potholes has
necessitated expensive repairs and reconstruction of a number of
sections of the roads. Ola (1978b) and Ibrahim (1980) attributed failed
road sections mainly to overloading by commercial vehicles, use of sub-
standard construction materials and inadequate knowledge of the
geotechnical characteristics of the soils over which the roads are built.

It was observed by Jedege (1994) that the soil materials

properties of failed sections of the road had not been thoroughly
investigated. Little or no consideration was given to the effect of clay
mineralogy and associated engineering soil behaviour, as highway
foundation materials and the weakening of pavements was likely to be
induced by the surface water ingress through cracks and joints that
developed in highway pavements (Jegede, 2000).

(Ajayi 1987) noted that road failure often occurs where the
pavement is founded on saprolite rather than the strong lateritic
horizons. Adeyemi (1992) investigated some geotechnical properties of
the residential lateritic soil adjacent to some sections of the Lagos –
Ibadan expressway and concluded that the degree of stability of the
flexible road pavement increased with both the amount of Kaolinite
present in the sub-grade soils their (California bearing ratio (CBR) and
unconfined compressive strength.

41
 (UCS). Ayangade (1992) could not establish a clear relationship
between the index properties of the sub-grade and the stability of the
road pavement, but noted that there was a positive correlation between
the strength characteristics of the foundation soils and the stability of
the pavement along some sections.

In a study by Arumala and Akpokodje (1987) of soil properties and

pavement performance, nine major roads were studied in the Niger –
Delta region. The overwhelming conclusion was little adherence to
design standards had been followed, which was attributed to poor
supervision by government officials and lowering of the design
specifications during construction as result of insufficient funds. They
found that soaked CBR’s of sub-grades and some base materials was
found to be as low as 2% (the Nigerian standard soaked CBR for a base
course is greater than 30) and mostly the roads did not have well-
defined sub bases. This is the principal reason why the entire length of
the 45km Kolo – Junction – Ogbia road failed completely only two and
half years after.

2.3.7 FEDERAL ROADS MAINTENANCE AGENCY (FERMA)

The Federal Government of Nigeria, through the Federal Ministry

of Works (FMW), initiated a major reconditioning of Nigeria’s Federal
road network in 2002 by establishing the Federal Roads Maintenance
Agency (FERMA). FERMA is a parastatal Agency under the Federal
Ministry of Works whose mandate is to carry out regular routine
maintenance on Federal Road network. FERMA was established in 2002
as a 10-13 year stop gap intervention while a more fully, fledged reform

42
is put into action to incorporate Nigerian roads into a comprehensive
pavement management system.

One of the earliest challenges that FERMA faced was how to fix
the horrible state of federal highways stemming from decades of
neglect.

The Medium Term Strategy for Road Sector Maintenance

Management (FERMA 2007) outlined that during the first four years
after FERMA inception, maintenance would likely not be a possible
intervention, but rather the rehabilitation, of failed segments to keep the
network in, at the very least, a respectable condition of use, fair the
public. The Agency has been successful in this regard, as shown in the
improvement in “Good” and ‘very Good’. Federal roads improved from a
combined 15% to 35% over the first 4 years (figure 2.4) through
rehabilitation of failed sections alone, although no reference to criteria
used to assess the pavement was made.

Very good 5%

Very good 15%

Good 10%

Bad
50%

Good 20%
Poor 35%

2005 Poor 30%

Fig 2.2: Through the initiatives of FERMA road its approach to

rehabilitating failed federal roads, progress made in four years.

43
 The principal goal of FERMA following the rehabilitation of the road
failures that plagued the federal system is to produce a program that
will enhance and upgrade the quality of the road infrastructure. This will
be accomplished by adopting two initiatives: which are;

(a) Performance Based Maintenance Management (PBMM)

(b) Systematic Road Strengthening and Enhancement (SRSE)
Programme.

The objective of the PBMM is to establish a programme in which

comprehensive routine maintenance of existing adequate roads within
the network are managed in a way to provide same state of
serviceability for as along as the road is in use (FERMA, 2007).
Simultaneously, the SRSE programme will provide needed periodic
structural strengthening on a particular road, with the objective of
preventing it from imminent collapse and extending its life span. The
two programmes are in the maintenance and rehabilitation interventions
of a pavement management system.

The preventive maintenance initiative initiated by the present

management led by Engr. G. C. Amuchi in which special surveillance
teams and a mobile pothole patcher are stationed at strategic roads is
yet another step in the right direction.

Despite the progress made, there remain challenges, the least of

which is funding. Currently, Federal Roads Maintenance Agency is
funded through the budget as efforts at getting the 5% fuel pump price
which is allowed by the law for maintenance of federal roads has not
been achieved since the establishment of the Agency and enactment of
the Act. At the initial stages of formation of FERMA (2003 – 07), only

44
spot improvements and emergency repairs were undertaken. In 2007,
an amount of NGN 13.5 billion (USD 106 million) was allocated to
FERMA, compared to the assessed needs of NGN 22 billion (USD 173
million) this represents only 61% of requirements (AFDB 2007).

Despite all the uphill battles that are facing FERMA, its primary
mandate is to produce a federal roads system that is in a good, safe and
confortable condition, FERMA anticipates having approximately 85% of
roads in the system at “very good” state by 2020.

2.4 TRANSPARENCY

Politics will always play some role in resource allocation. This is the
case for even the most advanced economics of the world. However,
what is important is that a mechanism exists to limit external influences
that make certain that correct assets are being maintained, rehabilitated
or reconstructed. This is particularly important when we look at Africa,
where transparency is one of the lowest of the World’s continents.
This is certainly the case for Nigeria.

Nigeria has a corruption perception Index of (C.P.I) of 2.2. The

average for all African nations is 2.76 while Botswana, the highest
ranked in Africa has a CPI of 5.4.

Transparency International (2007) ranked countries based on their

corruption perception index, an indication of the degree of public sector
corruption as perceived by business people and country analysis.

This Nigeria 2.2, illustrates the need for greater institutional

frameworks and controls.

45
2.5 PAVEMENT DESIGN THEORY

Pavements have traditionally been classified as flexible or rigid.

Flexible pavements consist of unbound compacted stone or aggregate
under a bituminous surfacing, while rigid pavement consist of a slab
concrete overlaying a thin aggregate bed. Primary differences over and
above the materials used include the method by which they distribute
loading from overlying vehicular traffic. Rigid pavements are not
common in Nigeria, therefore flexible pavement design will be the focus
of the discourse in the section.

The purpose of structural design is to limit the stress induced in

the sub-grade by traffic to a safe level at which sub-grade deformation
is insignificant whole at the same time ensuring that the road pavement
layers themselves do not deteriorate to any serious extent within a
specified period of time. To accomplish this, there are several different
approaches, theories, or pavement design. These include experience
based, empirical, and mechanistic empirical (such as Mechanistic
Empirical Pavement Design – Guide – MEPAG).

Experience based pavement design employs standard sections that

are derived from successful past designs. They provide standard layer
thickness based on site conditions including, but not limited to soil types,
traffic levels, roadway classifications and drainage properties. However,
experience based designs are limited in providing future properties such
as increased traffic, new materials and improved construction and
maintenance activities (TAC, 1997).

46
 Empirical based pavement design has been the primary pavement
design theory used in North America since 1970s. The principal reason
for this was the creation of the American Association of State Highway
and Transportation officials (AASHTO), guide for Design of Pavement
Structures, 1972, 1986 and 1993 which was created as a result of
testing conducted in the 1950’s by the American Association of State
Highway officials (AASHO) and the Western Association of State
Highway Officials (WASHO). The principal objective of the AASHO Road
test was to determine the significant relationship between the number of
repetitions of specific axle loads of different magnitude and arrangement
the performance of different thickness of uniformly designed and
constructed asphaltic concrete surface on different thickness of base and
sub-base when loaded an a basement of known characteristics (AASHO,
1962). Presently, pavement designs often exceed the data limits and
conditions used in the AASHO road test. Pavements with expected traffic
as much as 30 tons greater are being designed using empirical
procedures based upon the AASHO Road test. The disadvantage of an
empirical method is that it can be applied only to a given set of
environmental, material and loading conditions (Huang, 2007). If these
conditions are changed, the design is no longer valid and a need method
must be developed through trial and error to be conformant to the new
conditions.

The Transportation Research Boards (TRB) National Co-operative

Highway Research Programme (NCHRP) has developed a new pavement
design guide, the MEPDG. The new guide employs mechanistic –
empirical approaches. The approaches provide more realistic
characterisation of in service pavement and provide uniform guidelines

47
for designing the in-common features of flexible rigid and composite
pavement. The use of these approaches can enable the Engineer create
more reliable pavement designs. The new method offers procedures for
evaluating existing pavement and recommendations for rehabilitation
treatment, drainage, and foundation improvement. In addition, the new
guide incorporates procedures for performing traffic analysis, including
opinions for calibrating to local conditions and incorporates measures for
design reliability (NCHRP, 2004).

2.5.1 NIGERIAN PAVEMENT DESIGN

The standard practices of pavement design in Nigeria is the

Nigerian Federal Ministry of Works General Specification (Roads and
Bridges, Vol.II) which was adopted from TRRL Road Note 31 (1971).
This guide to the structural Design of Bitumen surfaced Roads in
Tropical and Sub-Tropical Countries, was adopted without much
modification. Though the exact design specifications of the different
roads vary according to the category, they fall within the following
general groups (Arumala and Akpokodje, 1987).

(i) Sub-grade; compacted to 95% to 100% BS compaction

with soaked CBR 5 to 11.
(ii) 50 to 120mm sub-base, compacted 100% West African
Standard Compaction.
(iii) 50 to 150mm base of either coarse grained soils,
compacted to 100% West African Standard compaction
with a soaked CBR of at least 30% or a cement stabilized
soil (5% to 7% cement content); and
(iv) 30 to 90mm double bituminous surface dressing of rolled
Asphalt.

48
 The principal issue surrounding the adoption of the TRRL Road
Note 31 as the Nigerian road design standard is the generality in which
it was intended. Due to the area of influence that the document was
written, it was not intended to be directly applied to a country as diverse
as Nigeria without making modifications for different soils,
environmental conditions and road building materials.

There is only one mention in the literature of mechanistic –

empirical design being applied to roads in Nigeria (Olowosulu, 2005). In
1982, the Federal Government of Nigeria in conjunction with a highway
improvement loan from the International Bank for Reconstruction and
Development (IBRD) began a program aimed at creating a system for
evaluating, strengthening and rehabilitating the Nigerian highway
system. Olowosulu (2005) indicated that this project culminated in the
establishment of a Pavement Evaluation Unit in the Federal Ministry of
Works and an overlay procedure based on elastic layer theory. No
further details on either entity have been found and it is likely that the
program ended during the civil turmoil that plagued Nigeria during this
time.

2.5.2 HDM III AND HDM IV

The Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Model (HDM)

was developed by the World Bank’s Transportation Department to meet
the needs of authorities, particularly in developing countries, for
evaluation policies, standards and programs of road construction and
maintenance (PIARC, 2000). Simply put, it is a road project appraisal
model.

49
 The model simulates total life cycle conditions and the cost of a
single road, a group of road with similar characteristics, or a pavement
network. The simulation can be done for a series of road Agency
construction or maintenance strategies and provides the economic
design criteria for evaluating the strategies being analyzed. The HDM
can be used to establish (Kerali, 2008).

 Desired budget levels that would minimize the total costs of

road transportation
 Appropriate policies and standards for construction and
maintenance programs that are consistent with minimizing
total transport and expenditure programs, and
 Appropriate, economically derived intervention criteria to
develop short term programs and annual budgets, based on
an appropriate pavement management system.

The most updated version of the HDM IV Road User Effects (RUE)
model (compared to the 1995 HDM. III version). While the HDM. III
version has been applied widely in the developing world, developed
countries were just starting to apply the program. It was under these
circumstances, along with the time elapsed since a comprehensive
update, that the model was inappropriate and an updated version that
took into account traffic congestion effects, cold climate effects, a wider
range of pavement types, road safety, and environmental effects was
required.

50
2.6 PAVEMENT DESIGN INPUTS

The structural design of pavements aims to protect the sub-grade

from traffic loads by providing pavement layers which will achieve a
chosen level of services, with maintenance and rehabilitation during the
analysis period, as cost effectively as possible (TRH, 1985) it
encompasses factors of time, traffic, pavement materials sub-grade
soils, environmental conditions and economics. The various design
inputs that are required to compile a competent design are discussed in
the following section with specific reference to Nigeria.

2.6.1 SUB-GRADE TYPE

The Nigerian Building and Road Research Institute, has, since

1952, been involved on the development of an Engineering Soil sub-
grade Map of Nigeria, however the produced map using the unified soil
classification system was not significant in as much as it is sparsely
plotted with overlay broad isolines. Okunade (1995) utilised the data
obtained from the Road Research Institute and plotted AASHTO soil
groupings in addition to eleven other maps depicting the variance of
other relevant engineering soil properties, such as Group Index, percent
Sand, Silt and Fines and Atterberg Limits. While the research was part of
an unpublished doctoral thesis, isopleths for the states where the
majority of road holding has been constructed have been published
(Okunade 2000a and 2000b). It is the intention of these isopleths to
provide a source of primary information for consulting and practising
engineers and will constitute an invaluable aid to road planners and
designers.

51
 Nigeria’s major soil zones conform to geographical location: Loose
sandy soils are found in the Northern regions. In Southern Kano we
have mixed soils which contain locally derived granite and loess (Wind
born deposits). The middle two – thirds of the country, the Savannah
regions, contain reddish, laterite soils. The forest soils represent the
third zone. Sandy material occur principally at the most Southern
regions of the country, along the various deltas.

While both lateritic and non-lateritic soils occur in Nigeria, the

most abundant soils are laterites which are used most commonly in road
construction. This is even more accurate given the Southern Nigeria
predominance of road construction over the past half century and their
prevalence in this region. The climate of Southern Nigeria is ideal for
laterite formation (Ogunsanwo, 1989). Laterite is a surface formation in
hot and wet tropical areas which is enriched in iron and Aluminium and
develops by intensive and long lasting weathering of the underlying
parent rock. Laterites consist mainly of the minerals Kaolinite, goethite,
hematite and gibbsite which form in the course of weathering.
Moreover, many laterite contain quartz as relatively relic material from
the parent rock. The iron oxides goethite and hermatite cause the
reddish- brain colour of laterites (MC Bride, 1994).

Lateritic soils are common in tropical latitudes and are often used
in road construction due to their abundance. However, they frequently
do not meet specification requirements, commonly having too high a
fines content and plasticity (PI). Osinubu (1998) indicated that lateritic
soil is conventional material routinely used in most tropical countries for
road pavement construction even though most lateritic soils and gravels
are at best suitable mainly for sub-base course material. Therefore,
52
stabilization is a viable option to improve these soils to make them
appropriate to be incorporated into pavement layers. This is where soil
stabilization and the contemporary Nanotechnology comes into play.

Akpokadje (1986) indicated that the poor grading and high fines
content of the concretionary laterite gravels, in addition, the slightly
strong nature of the coarse particles render the material as troublesome
base materials. Teme (1991) indicated that pavements of Nigeria are
constructed with aggregates of very poor quality, due to the
unavailability of durable igneous or metamorphic rocks. Quarried or
borrow-pit materials are not generally used in Nigeria due to this reason
and when sound aggregates are used for pavement construction, the
haulage costs are often excessive. What is not appreciated is the
abundance of sedimentary rocks and limestone that are predominant
throughout the country (Ola, 1977). Yet laterities are typically relied
upon for pavement layers rather than quarried rocks or aggregates.

2.6.2 ASPHALT CEMENT/ASPHALTIC CONCRETE

The majority of Federal Roads in Nigeria are flexible pavements,

which consists of asphaltic concrete. There is no literature that mentions
rigid pavement design, which is logical given the high cost of concrete in
Nigeria and the over abundance of oil. It is the surface that is in direct
contact with traffic loads and provides characteristics such as friction,
smoothness, noise control, rut and showing resistance and drainage.

In Nigeria, there are only two grading envelopes for binder and
wearing courses. The mix design for both may account for some of the
poor pavement performance encountered in Nigeria. It is likely that

53
Nigeria specifications will not account for skid resistance and ride quality
of pavement structure and will blanket – cover the road with the same
asphalt mix design (TRL, 1993). Two striking parameters are the
bitumen content (0%) and the percent air voids. The FMWH
specification outlines a bitumen content range of 45% to 6.5% for
binder course and 5.0% to 8.0% content for wearing courses. Both
these values are too high and will cause instability of the produced
asphalt concrete. The percent air void specification for a binder or
surface course ranges between 3% and 8%. The Marshal Method mix
design specifies that a percentage air voids in a total mix should fall
between 3% and 5%. The Marshal method mix design specifies that a
percentage air voids in total mix should fall between 3% and 5%. The
high air void content of the Nigerian asphalt will increase permeability,
allowing for water and air to pass into the pavement and underlying
layers. This decreases the durability of the asphalt concrete mix and
weakens the underlying pavement layer (Esenwa, 2008).

2.6.3 TRAFFIC DATA

Magnitude Individual wheel loads and number of times these loads

are applied form the root causes of deterioration of paved roads. For
pavement design purposes it is necessary to consider not only the total
number of vehicles, but also the wheel loads (Axle loads).

The Federal Ministry of Works and Housing (FMWH, 1997)

specification does not provide information on various traffic classes or
axle loads. The sole mention of a traffic category is for mixed design
criteria for Marshal Design specifications, where Heavy, Medium and

54
light traffic designation are used. No quantification of what constitutes
these designations is provided. The overseas Road Note: 31 (TRL, 1993)
provides for 8 different traffic classes based on equivalent standard axle
loads, but whether this designation is utilized in Nigeria is unknown.
Very little published data exists for traffic loads, and all of the research
conducted on road failures attributed the cause to aspects other than
load – related failures. Assuming Nigeria follows other African nations,
vehicles are typically over loaded, poorly maintained and tires are likely
either too hard or under inflated.

2.7 PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT

The performance of a pavement depends largely on the design

process and the inputs that are used to derive the design. However, the
activities surrounding this design, including construction and subsequent
maintenance and rehabilitation intervention are as much part of the
designs performance as is the competency of the design. A well-defined
and implemented strategy provides for improved infrastructure
longevity. As such, pavement management can be defined as all the
activities involved in providing and managing the pavement portion with
the objective to use reliable information and decision criteria in an
organised framework to produce a cost – effective pavement program
(Haas et al, 1994).

Pavement management has progressed from a concept in the

1960’s to current, wide spread and successful application in many
countries around the world. The reasons include a sound underlying
framework, an extensive base of technology and foresight on the part of

55
individuals and agencies (Haas, 2001). A pavement management system
(PMS) helps in making informed decisions, enabling maintenances of the
network in a serviceable condition at a minimum cost to both the road
agency and the road users. For this well documented information is
essential to make and create a system that is not only locally assembled,
but also one that is sound from an engineering and management
standpoint. The elements of a PMS should include (Haas et al, 1994).

 An Inventory of pavements in the network

 A database of information pertinent to past and present pavement
condition
 An analysis methodology
 Long range budgeting provisions
 Privatizing the annual work program
 A basis communication of the developed plans and
 A feedback system

A PMS can be used to not only preserve the existing assets, but also
to increase the assets value of the system overtime. To find a cost
effective strategy for providing, evaluating and maintaining
pavements in serviceable conditions, the utilization of a pavement
management system is well positioned to streamline these factors
and produce a road map for the improvement of the future condition
to the economic sustainability of Nigeria.

Different types of data are used for road management and the
needs vary depending on which infrastructure element is evaluated.
There are two types of data collected for use in pavement
management. Firstly, inventory data describes the physical elements

56
 of the road system and, secondly, condition data that describes the
condition of elements that can be expected to change over time.
When considering the developing world. Bennett et al, (2007)
outlined the challenges the developing world faces when confronted
with the cost of collecting pavement data. Many transportation
agencies in developing countries are grappling with a
cost/performance dilemma: on one hand they recognise the need to
improve data collection accuracy and increase the extent of surveys
on their networks, but on the other hand, funding is often a major
obstacle which limits their activities. As such, Bennett et al, (2007)
outlined that careful consideration needs to be paid to the initial cost,
ongoing costs and the ability of the agency to sustain the technology
when choosing the appropriate data collection method or methods.

Periodic identification of distresses on a highway surface is

important to plan adequate maintenance and rehabilitation strategies
and is critical to good pavement management. Identification and
evaluation the types of distress, their extent, seventy and location.
Typical distresses are cracking, surface deformation, surface defects
and pavement failures.

2.8 SUMMARY

The chapter presented a literature review of the state of Nigerian

roads and the principal issues that the country is facing in its
development process. A solid pavement infrastructure system is critical
not only for economic development, but also, social, environmental and
health issues that are at the core of Nigeria’s obstacle to progress.

57
System wide failures of pavements both newly constructed and those
built 20 years ago, are well documented and are at the root of a
decayed, inefficient and stagnated road infrastructure system that needs
to be upgraded if progress is to be made on any front within the
country.

FERMA has initiated both immediate and medium term strategies

that will address the poor state of Nigerian’s Federal roads. This will
include the creation of an implementable pavement management
strategy in addition to reforming the road design and construction
process. Accountability and transparency are keys in achieving this goal.

Nigeria has the potential to produce an abundance of good

construction materials, such as crushed aggregate, yet such materials do
not seem to be incorporated into road projects. While there are very
poor soils on the Lagos and Port – Harcourt areas, the road failures that
have occurred are less as result of the materials used, rather than poor
design and road construction judgement.

This chapter has also presented a brief overview of pavement

design, both in North America and Africa. The Nigerian design guide is
outdated and needs to be modified. The World Bank’s HDM-IV is a good
example of regional design guide and manual that could be easily
replicated, or adapted, to reflect the needs of Nigeria.

58
 CHAPTER THREE

DATA SOURCES AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

This chapter discusses data sources used to undertake detailed

analysis of Nigerian pavement design. It also discusses classification
(Taxonomy) of the data/information into a system that can be utilized by
pavement Engineers and Field Engineering in Nigeria. The experimental
methodology applied will define the data\information that are needed as
input variable in the design, as well as the flow diagrams and decision
trees for appropriate maintenance and rehabilitation interventions.

The data envelop discussed has several components as they

impact pavement design, construction and maintenance. These include;
sub-grade classification, traffic, environment, pavement condition,
maintenance and rehabilitation costs and service life.

The chapter also discusses computational aspects of pavement

design and maintenance. This will facilitate automation of the processes
and enhance productivity in the sector.

3.1 DATA SOURCES

The Nigerian Federal Road network is composed of 32,100km of

asphalted roads (figure 3.1). One of the defining issues of the Federal
Road network in Nigeria is the lack of reliable data. For example the
current road classification distribution, according to FERMA (2007) is
that 15% of the roads are ‘Very Good’ and 20% roads are “Good” yet

59
there are no clear cut explanations on how these designations were
arrived at by the Road Maintenance Management Service Department
(RMMS) of the Agency. Data about the designs that were applied in
building of the roads are significantly lacking. Where designs are
available, literature has pointed to the fact that it is likely that they have
not been applied to the specifications and therefore, data about them
are rendered inadequate. Also, the “as constructed”
information/drawing are not often available. It is obvious that there is a
need to utilize data that can be supported. It also important that where
assumptions have been made, they have been done with logic and
regards to regional context. As such, where possible, data will be taken
from the literature on Nigerian roads and road related issues. Further,
since the project also deals with Sub-saharan African Nations, data from
Neighbouring countries will be used as appropriate. Furthermore, data
from World Bank or other international financial institutions (IFIS) and
donor groups will be utilized (where available), both on Nigeria and the
region as a whole.

The reasons for Federal Road failures are well defined. Chapter
Two reviewed and discussed the central issues. These include
inadequate and inappropriate designs, poor construction materials,
traffic overloading and most principally poor construction and quality
control measures. There is a great deal of rehabilitation interventions
required, as outlined by FERMA (2007). However, there is lack of data
on factors required to undertake a thorough analysis. There is therefore,
a need to compile regional data, such as road designs, traffic volumes,
truck factors and costs of interventions and format them into a useable

60
way that road Engineers can utilize. The format will follow outlines that
are well documented in African and International guides.

Fig. 3.1: The paved Federal Network in Nigeria according to traffic

classification as outlined by FERMA (2007).

61
3.2 SUB-GRADES

A series of 12 Engineering parameters in Nigeria through the use

of isopleths where presented in papers by Okunade (2006). While sub-
grade CBR is presented, the data appears to be incomplete in
comparison with other parameters. Two of the more reliable parameters
based on the larger data sets, would seem to be the soil sub-grade
AASHTO classifications and plasticity index (PI). For example, for the
lower Niger Delta States all of the soil sub-grade classifications are
outlined, which can be overlaid with the Federal road Network (Figure
3.1) to determine the exact classification of sub-grades that the
pavements are built upon. This was done for other States and a
compilation of AASHTO classified soils was created. What is apparent,
however, is that the majority of soil types are found throughout Nigeria
and that the current Federal system overrides these soils in at least one,
if not all, of the climatic zones. Consequently, the overlaid data adds
little value. There is a need, therefore to try and group the soils
according to sub-grade strength, rather than gradation and atterberg
limits as in the AASHTO soil classification system. This is because it is
the sub-grade strength that is more desirable from design standpoint.

The South African structural Design of Flexible Pavements for

Inter-urban and Rural Roads (TRH 4, 1996) utilizes a four-class sub-
grade designation based on CBR(%) for structural design. The
Transportation Research Laboratory utilizes a six class designation in
their overseas Road Note 31 (1993) based on CBR(%). The Tanzanian
Pavement and Material Design Manual (Ministry of Works, 1999) utilizes
a three-class sub-grade designation. A comparison of the three
classifications can be found in the Table 3.1, recognizing that the TRH-4
62
manual was utilized as a reference in the design of the ORN 31, and
both references were utilized in development of the Tanzanian standard.

TABLE 3.1: Comparison between three sub-grade classification

systems used in Sub-saharan Africa.

Sub-grade strength classes

ORN 31 TRH: 4 Tanzania
Class CBR class CBR Class CBR
S1 2 SG1 <15 S15 Min 15
S2 3-4 SG2 7 to 15 S7 7 to 14
S3 5-7 SG3 3 to 7 S3 3 to 6
S4 8-14 SG4 <3
S5 15-29
S6 30
ORN: Overseas Road Notes.

As Nigeria is at very early stage in the development of their

pavement management system and road standard or at least a design
manual that is specific to Nigeria, a four class designation may be more
appropriately suited. Such class designation could be the TRH-4
classification. Although in the series of progression of the ORN 31
classification the sub-grade number increases with increasing sub-grade
strength (i.e S1 is low strength and S6 is the highest), which seems
more reasonable than the decreasing format of the South African
standard. Therefore, a classification using NSG (Nigerian Sub-grade) is
recommended. It will be applied as follows;

NSG1;. CBR <3

NSG2;.CBR from 3 to 7
NSG3;. CBR from 7 to 15
NSG4;. CBR <15

63
3.3 TRAFFIC

The only traffic data that is available and easily accessible, is from FERMA
(2007) where each major section of Federal road is assigned an average daily
traffic (ADT) (Figure 3.2 and Table 3.2).

In Nigeria 90% of all trade travels are done over the roads due to lack of
an established rail system. A persistent lack of weight restriction and
enforcement on trucks is pandemic all over Africa, and thus severe overloading of
Trucks in Nigeria is prevalent. The Southern African Transport and
Communication Commission (2001) outlines that where axle loading and traffic
data is unavailable, the likelihood of overloading is high and that this should be
accounted for in the road design or rehabilitation intervention (Table 3.3).
Therefore, as the objective of evaluating the traffic parameters in Nigeria with
the intention of deriving suitable traffic classes, rather than more accurately
define the loads occurring on the roads, standards utilized within Sub-saharan
Africa are referred to. Attention will be paid, however, when undertaking analysis
that requires equivalent standard axles loads (ESALS).

The South African standard (TRH-4) utilizes ten pavement classes for
design purposes based on equivalent standard axle (ESA). The first five
designations are for very highly trafficked roads with very few heavy vehicles.
However, these classifications do not suit the Federal roads in Nigeria. The
remaining five designations include;

T1: Lightly trafficked roads, mainly cars, light delivery and agricultural
vehicles, approximate ADT per lane than 700.

T2: Medium volume of Traffic with few heavy vehicles, approximate ADT per
lane = 700 to 1500.

T3: High volume of traffic and/or many heavy vehicles; approximate ADT per
lane = 700 to 1500 with 20% heavy trucks.
T4: Very high volume of Traffic and/or a high proportion of fully laden heavy
vehicles; approximate ADT per lane = 1500 to 2200 and

64
T5: Excessively
cessively high volume of traffic and/or a high proportion of fully laden
heavy vehicles; approximates ADT per lane = >2200.

Figure 3.2: Average Daily Traffic (ADT) and the percentage of heavy vehicles on Federal
Roads in Nigeria.(FERMA,
(FERMA, 2007)

Figure 3.3: Average Daily Traffic (ADT) and the percentage of heavy vehicles on Federal
Roads in Nigeria.(FERMA
(FERMA 2007).

65
 Table 3.2 Traffic data for the major Federal Roads in Nigeria
(FERMA 2007)
Major Federal Road ADT Heavy Vehicles (%) ESAL*
Sokoto - Illela 3000 3.33% 111.6
Kano – Kastina 5600 3.57% 221.6
Akwanga – Jos 4000 5.50% 235.1
Abuja – Akwanga 5700 4.39% 271.8
Bida – Abuja 2100 14.29% 307.2
Kano – Potiskum 4000 7.50% 314.8
Benin City – Lokoja 7300 4.38% 347.9
Benin City – Warri Port Harcourt 5000 7.00% 368.6
Bauchi – Yola 4200 8.81% 385.3
Jos – Bauchi 7000 5.43% 406.5
Aba – Calabar 4400 9.09% 416.0
Makurdi – Akwamga 6200 6.45% 423.2
Zaria – Sokoto 5100 8.24% 438.7
Enugu – Mfom 4000 12.50% 514.0
Onitsha – Enugu 18000 2.50% 520.2
Enugu – Makurdi 3600 14.44% 583.7
Mokwa - Bida 4000 14.25% 687.3
Potisku – Maiduguri 5000 13.40% 694.2
Aba – Engu 9200 7.17% 706.4
Maiduguri – Ngala 2300 30.43% 737.2
Zaria – Kano 10000 7.00% 828.8
Abuja - Kaduna 8000 10.00% 922.5
Benin City – Onitsha 11500 7.65% 932.4
Lokoja – Abuja 9000 10.00% 932.3
Kaduna – Zaria 11000 8.36% 960.3
Port Harcourt – Aba 10000 9.90%% 1026.0
Ilorin – Jebba 5000 32.00% 1613.6
Ibadan – Ilorin 8900 21.35% 1928.0
Shagamu – Ibadan 8900 21.35% 1928.0
Shagamu – Benin City 22000 14.09% 3175.6
Lagos – Shagamu 40000 10.00% 4144.0

• ESALs are based on the ADT being representative of one lane

traffic.
Keys: ADT: Average Daily Traffic
ESAL: Equivalent Standard Axle Loads
66
 Table 3.3 Truck factors utilized for determining pavement loading
where data is unavailable (SATCC, 2011).
Normal Abnormal
Vehicle class Typed range
conditions conditions
Bus 2-axle (35+seats) 0.7 1.2 0.4 – 1.8
2-axle 0.7 1.5 0.3 – 2.0
3-axle 1.7 2.0 0.5 – 3.0
Trucks 4-axle 1.8 2.5 0.7 – 3.5
5-axle 2.2 3.2 1.0 – 4.5
6-axle 3.5 4.7 1.2 – 6.0
7 or more axles 4.4 6.0 2.0 – 8.0

Similarly, ORN 31 (1993) utilizes 8 traffic classes with the first

three reserved primarily for low volume roads. Conversely, Tanzania has
a seven class system with only the first classification (TLC02) reserved
for roads with an ESAL of less than 200,000. The remaining classes are
similar to both the South African and TRL manuals. Taking into
consideration the three regional manual forms South Africa, Tanzania
and the ORN, A Nigerian specific traffic classification (TC) for pavement
management purposes utilizing Average Daily traffic (ADT) and the
Average Daily Truck Traffic (ADTT) can be achieved as follows
(figure 3.3).

TC1; Low volume: ADT < 700: limited heavy vehicle (ADTT<35)

TC2; Moderate with few trucks; ADT 700 to 1500: few heavy
vehicles ADTT < 75

TC3; Moderate trucks: ADT 700 to 1500: heavy vehicles

(ADTT<225).

TC4; High; ADT 1500 to 2200; heavy vehicle (ADTT<400); and

TC5; Congested heavy traffic; ADT > 2200; heavy vehicles

(ADTT>400).
67
 The above classification is a recommended structure that can be
readily adopted by Nigeria to better designate their traffic classifications.
The intention of the designation is both to provide a sensible format for
designating traffic classes and to provide a means of addressing the
appropriate rehabilitation interventions based on logical traffic
classifications that are applied in the next chapter.

3.4 ENVIRONMENT

Nigerian climate can be divided into three climate zones for the
purpose of pavement design. (Figure 3.4).

 A humid zone or the Southern Part of Nigeria

 A dry, Sub humid zone in the middle; and,
 A Semi – arid Northern Region.

Moisture has a major influence on pavement performance, as the

strength of the sub-grade varies with moisture content. This is
particularly relevant in Southern Nigeria where the soils are particularly
plastic (highly weathered) and are more susceptible to moisture, and it
is the region with the most highly trafficked and loaded roads. Prior to
MR&R interventions, detailed data on the temperature conditions on the
project area is obtained. Temperature conditions can be expected to
correlate closely with site altitude. The pavement temperature should be
taken into account, as it impacts on the performance of bituminous
mixes with regards to;

 Load distribution properties

 Resistance to deformation
 Resistance to fatigue cracking and,
 Rate of ageing.

68
 While the three climate zones reflect the macro-climate of Nigeria,
it is recognised that there may be localized areas with different moisture
conditions. To simplify the zones in Nigeria, a dry (North), moderate
(central) and wet (South) designation is used in this study.

Figure 3.4; The three major climatic zones in Nigeria (CIA, 1989)

3.5 CONDITIONS

In FERMA’s strategy paper FERMA (2007), a four class designation

is utilized for road quality. This includes Bad, Poor, Good and Very Good.
There is insufficient information as per what the various designations

69
have been based. However, it would appear as though the four class
system, as it is set up for Nigeria, leads to a skewed result towards the
road network being in an adequate condition. Having two good
conditions of the road (Good and Very Good) and only one bad condition
(Bad) will always skew the perception that there are more roads of good
quality. In an odd number class designation, for example five
(Very Good, Good, Fair, Poor and Very Poor), there is less room for
having skewed results as there is balance between two dipoles. In an
evaluation of soil properties and pavement performance in Niger Delta,
Arumala and Akpododje (1987) utilized a visual condition survey data
collections from based on a slight, moderate, severe or No distress
evaluation (Figure 3.5).

The World Bank RONET program, which is derived from HDM-4,

utilizes a five class designation for the condition of primary asphalt
roads, including Very Good, Good, Fair, Poor, and Very Poor. The
RONET designation for each of these class types is as follows.

Very good: Roads in Very good condition require no capital road

works.

Good: Roads in Good condition are largely free of defects,

requiring some minor maintenance works, such as
preventative treatment of crack sealing.

Fair: Road in Fair condition are roads with defects and

weakened structural resistance, requiring resurfacing
of the pavement (periodic maintenance), but without
the need to demolish the existing pavement.

70
 Poor: Roads in Poor condition require rehabilitation
(strengthening or partial reconstruction); and,

Very poor: Roads in Very poor condition require full

reconstruction, almost equivalent to new construction.

The Ministry of Transportation of Ontario (MTO, 1989) developed

a rating scheme consisting of a rater evaluating two different
parameters (Figures 3.6 and 3.7). These include the riding quality of the
pavement surface (an indication of a pavements functional condition),
and the extent and severity of pavement distress, which is an indication
of the structural condition. After a distress survey or condition rating has
been conducted, MTO assigns a Pavement Condition Rating (PCR)
according to the following designations.

Very good: Pavement is in excellent condition with just a few bumps or

depressions from slight surface deformation. No surface
defects such as streaking, potholes or cracking distresses.
Ride is very good. Routine maintenance.

Good: Pavement is in good condition with just a few bumps or

depressions from slight to moderate surface deformation.
Intermittent slight to moderate surface defects and or
cracking distresses. Ride is good. Corrective maintenance on
an annual basis.

Fair: Pavement is in fair condition with intermittent to frequent

bumps of depressions from slight to moderate deformation.
Intermittent to frequent moderate surface defects and/or
cracking distresses. Ride is fair. Corrective maintenance to

71
 hold serviceability level on a semi-annual basis or sooner
when necessary. May be a candidate for major corrective
maintenance as holding strategy depending on performance
level and history. Candidate for rehabilitation program in 3 to
5 years;

Poor: Pavement is in poor condition with frequent bumps or

depressions from moderate surface deformation. Frequent
moderate to severe defects and or cracking distresses.
Localized slight to moderate alligator cracks may be present
indicating pavement structural failure. Ride is poor.
Corrective maintenance to retard rapid deterioration of
serviceability level Candidate for rehabilitation program in 1
to 3 years, and,

Very Poor: Pavement is in very poor condition with extensive bumps or

depressions from moderate to severe surface deformation.
Extensive to severe surface defects and/or cracking
distresses. Frequent slight to moderate alligator cracking
may be present, indicating pavement structural failure. Ride
is very poor. Corrective maintenance when and where
necessary to maintain minimal safety and serviceability level.
Rehabilitation within 1 year.

The SATCC (2001) and the South African TRH12 (1997) guides
utilize five degrees of severity to classify distress. These include:

Slight: Distress difficult to discern. Only slight signs of distress visible

72
Between Slight and Warning: Easily discernable distress but of little
immediate consequence;

Warning: Distress is notable with respect to possible consequences.

Start of secondary defects; maintenance is already possible
or needed e.g. cracks can be sealed.

Between warning and severe: Distress is serious with respect to possible

consequences. Secondary defects have developed
(noticeable secondary defects) and/or primary defect is
serious: and

Severe: Secondary defects have developed (noticeable secondary

defects) and/or extreme degree of primary defect.

The Tanzanian Pavement Rehabilitation Guide (Ministry of Works,

1999) utilizes a simplified three – class designation for pavement
distress.

Sound: Adequate condition;

Warning: Uncertainty exists about the adequacy of the condition, and,

Severe: Inadequate condition.

There would seem to be two perspectives with respect to

rehabilitation in Southern Africa. The TRL system uses Very Good to
Very Poor, while the TRH12 based method assigns an adjective to
describe the state of the road (Severe to Slight). Given the regional
relevance of the South Africa system (which both the SATCC and
Tanzanian guides were based) it would make sense for Nigeria to adopt
a similar distress classification. Therefore, a Nigerian condition rating

73
(NCR) that follows the TRH12 should be adopted and will be utilized in
this study.

The designation of road condition requires the extent of distress

on the road to be known. Further, this classification would differ
depending upon whether you were plotting occurrence of potholes or
riding condition rating. There is certainly room for a composite index.
One that is weighted with the International Roughness Index (Queiroz
and Gautam, 1992) would be reasonable given the valuable data it
provides in decision making criteria, as well as the simple and cost-
effective method of acquiring the data.

3.6 TYPICAL PAVEMENT DESIGNS

The designs outlined in ORN 31, which was the basis for the
original Nigerian method, is similar to the TRH-4 method used in South
Africa. Similarly, the Tanzanian Pavement and Materials Design Manual
(1999) utilizes a similar system that provides example designs based on
the type of base course, traffic loads, climatic zone and sub-grade
strength.

There is little data on what design have been applied to roads in

Nigeria, other than the information that is available on the type of
asphalt they use (FMWH, 1997), and the fact that aggregate is used
infrequently. Typically, reliance on borrow pit material is commonplace
and designs are applied even if suitable aggregate cannot be sourced.
Blasting and quarrying of rock is not a common practice. Numerous
studies have pointed to the poor quality control and neglect of design
during the construction process, where pavement layers are either

74
constructed with inferior material to those that have been specified,
layers are constructed thinner than specified, or both. Arumala and
Akpokodje (1987) indicate that the majority of federal roads fall into the
following range.

(i) Sub-grade compacted to 95% to 100% BS compaction

with soaked CBR of 5 to 11:
(ii) 50 to 150mm sub-base, compacted to 100%. West
African Standard compaction:
(iii) 50 to 200mm base of either course grained soils
compacted to 100%. West African Standard Compaction
with a soaked CBR of at least 30% or a cement stabilized
(5 to 7% cement content), or wet crushed stone base
(iv) 30 to 100mm double bituminous surface dressing of rolled
asphalt.

Based on the parameters that have been selected for Nigerian

sub-grades, traffic volumes and loads, and environmental factors, typical
designs can be derived from the Overseas Road Note 31 (Table 3.4). It
is unlikely, that roads are actually constructed to the standard, and if
they are, they are likely in a poor state due to the lack of maintenance
or rehabilitation interventions that have been applied. The designs in
Table 3.4 are more akin to a design that would be applied if
reconstruction was the chosen intervention. Nevertheless, as there
exists no details on the actual designs that are applied in Nigeria, the
designs outlined in Table 3.4 are reasonable as a starting point with
which to base decision tree models and life cycle costing and are likely
representative of designs that should be applied in Nigeria.

75
Figure 3.5: A visual condition rating form utilized by Arumala and Akpokodje (1987) to evaluate pavements
in the Niger Delta. The form is not specific in Nigeria.
76
Figure 3.6: A flexible pavement condition rating evaluation form utilized by Ontario’s Ministry of
Transportation ( MTO, 1989)

77
Figure 3.7: A surface - treated pavement condition evaluation form for distress manifestations (MTO, 1989)

78
3.7 NIGERIAN MAINTENANCE AND REHABILITATION COSTS

The sheer lack of data in Nigeria on all fronts further drives home
the urgent need for simple tools that the Federal Roads Maintenance
Agency can use to preserve the remaining pavement assets we have.
One of the most important data sources to accomplish this is the cost of
applying a given maintenance or rehabilitation intervention in the
Nigerian context.

The lack of well organized and archived data is a common theme

in the developing world. This was the reason the World Bank initiated
the Road Costs Knowledge System (ROCKS) in 1999. The main
objectives of the system were; (i) to develop an international knowledge
system on road work costs to be used, primarily in developing countries,
(ii) to establish an institutional memory, and (iii) obtain average range of
unit costs based on historical data that could ultimately improve the
reliability of new cost estimates and reduce the risks generated by cost
overruns (World Bank, 2006). The database is publicly available and it
contains regional data for Africa that outlines the costs associated with
carrying our various maintenance and rehabilitation interventions
(Table 3.5).

Within the ROCKS database there are a number of entries of

Nigerian projects that have been completed by the World Bank. Of these
entries, there are 13 that have sufficient data on the maintenance or
rehabilitation intervention applied and the costs associated with it (Table
3.6). A disadvantage of this data is that it summarizes the total cost of
the project (in USD per kilometre and per square metre) rather than an
itemized cost of each activity associated with the project (e.g. the cost
of a 40mm AC overlay only).

79
80
Table 3.5: Road Costs Knowledge System (ROCKS) data for Africa (median cost per two lane km except Routine
Maintenance, which is per two-lane km).

Africa World
Number of
Work Type Activity Region Low High Data
Observations
USD USD

Routine Routine Maintenance;

2,323 2038 3086 18 1,964
Maintenance Bituminous 2L

Slurry Seal or Cape Seal 12,970 9686 14098 3 8,695

Surface Treatment
Single Surface Treatment 18,353 14359 23600 9 18,254
Resurfacing
Double Surface Treatment 18,767 19196 27186 18 27,968

Asphalt Mix Asphalt Overlay < 40mm 41,241 30228 55403 10 37,911
Resurfacing Asphalt Overlay 40mm to 59mm 51,332 46661 67898 24 68,183

Asphalt Overlay 60 to 70mm 91,905 79479 117874 6 81,270

Strengthening Asphalt Overlay 80 to 99mm 127,548 102532 150828 11 112,285

Asphalt Overlay > 99mm 181,992 146969 210151 4 157,360

Reconstruction Reconstruction Bituminous 190,031 192317 236912 92 178,945

81
Table 3.6: Nigerian projects contained in the ROCKS database with costing

Project Location Yr Work type C$/km C$/m Comments

Thickness or AC or road
ICRA0091 Multi-state 99 Rehab with AC 119,187 17.02
design unknown
Rehab with Thickness or road design
ICRA0092 Multi-state 99 97,295 13.89
DSD unknown
AC overlay 40
ICRA0116 Multi-state 98 111,853 15.32 Road design unknown
– 59mm
Double 20mm resurfacing
RACA0238 Multi-state 93 29,074 3.99
surface thickness
Bituminous
RACA0239 Multi-state 93 96,847 13.27 20mm surfacing thickness
reconstruction
2 lane road; distress
RACA0242 Multi-state 83 Patching - 9.65
extent unknown
Rolling terrain; hot, sub-
Bauchi – Tafawa
Bituminous tropical; base work =
NGAA001 Belewa – Dawaki 99 244,966 33.55
reconstruction 51%; asphalt work =
Rd section III
18%; 40mm resurface.
Rolling terrain; hot, sub-
Rehab of Okigwe Bituminous tropical; base work =
NGAA005 01 930,274 127.44
– Afikpo Road reconstruction 18%; asphalt work =
15%; 40mm resurfacing.
Rehab of Rolling terrain; hot, sub-
Ekwulobia – Oko tropical; base work =
Bituminous
NGAA006 – Umunze – 02 438,484 60.07 26%; asphalt work =
reconstruction
Ibinta – Imo 22%; 40mm resurfacing.
State Border
Construction of Rolling terrain; cool sub-
Langtang – Lalin Bituminous tropical; base work =
NGAA007 02 542,974 74.38
– Tunkus – reconstruction 24%; asphalt work =
Shendam Road 21%; 50mm resurfacing.
Sub-humid rolling; Base
Auchi – Ekperi – Bituminous work (Natural gravel) =
NGAA008 99 198,246 29.59
Agenebode Road reconstruction 13%; asphalt work =
36%; 40mm resurfacing
AC Overlay <
NGAB003 Lamata 04 89,973 - Humid tropical
40mm

Source: World Bank ROCKS. AC; Asphaltic Concrete

82
 A complementary program to ROCKS that was developed by the
World Bank solely for Sub-saharan Africa is the Road Network Evaluation
Tools (RONET). The RONET program was specifically created to assist
decision makers to accomplish the following tasks (World Bank, 2007).

• Monitor the current condition of the road network.

• Plan allocation of resources and,
• Assess the consequences of macro policies on the road
network.

To validate the model, Archando-Callao (2008) utilized four SSA

countries, including Mozambique, Uganda, Tanzania and Ghana. While
data from either of these countries could assist in fine tuning the costs
associated with implementation of various maintenance and
rehabilitation interventions in Nigeria, a copy of a trial RONET simulation
by Archando-Callao (2008) for Nigeria was obtained. The RONET
simulation for Nigeria contains costing data for various Maintenance,
Rehabilitation and Reconstruction (MR&R) interventions, which are
summarized in Table 3.7.

In comparing the data obtained from ROCKS for African roads,

data available for Nigeria obtained from ROCKS and the data from the
RONET simulation for Nigerian roads, there is some overlap. Firstly, the
price for routine maintenance that was used for the RONET analysis is
well above the African maximum cost obtained from ROCKS. The
resurfacing cost for applying an asphalt overlay approximately 50mm is
equivalent in both the Rocks and RONET data, as is the overlay cost.
Other than the routine maintenance cost, while appreciably different
from a percentage standpoint, in reality there is only a 2000 USD

83
difference between the two data sets. As such, the ROCKS data for
Africa is utilized in this study. The median, minimum and maximum
costs associated with each intervention are utilized to generate a range
of values.

3.8 PAVEMENT SERVICE LIFE

The service life of a given asphalt wearing or surface course is

critical to the pavements longevity. It is also an important factor when
selecting the appropriate maintenance or rehabilitation intervention to
apply, from a technical and economic standpoint. Both the South African
and SATCC standard provide suggested typical ranges of surfacing life
periods for various surfacing types. For granular bases, the following
typical surfacing life can be expected (SATCC, 2001).

Bitumen sand or slurry seal: 6 to 8 years

Bitumen single surface treatment: 6 to 10 years

Bitumen double surface treatment: 8 to 10 years

Cape Seal: 8 to 10 years

Continuously graded asphalt: 8 to 11 years

Gap-graded asphalt: 8 to 13 years

In the Nigerian General Specification for Roads and Bridges

(FMWH, 1997), only two asphalt mix designs are specified. These
include a binder or lower base course and a wearing or surface course.
There is no provision for alternative mix designs that take into account
traffic factors, surface temperatures, and other factors that are critical to

84
an asphalt concrete mix design. This is a very significant short coming of
current practice, as it stifles innovations in the contest of construction
materials and process improvements. A site survey conducted by
Esenwa (2008) outlined the following common problems observed on
working paving sites in Nigeria.

Mix deficiencies: Mix overheated, mix under-heated, too much bitumen,

too little bitumen, non-uniform mixing, excess coarse aggregate, excess
fine aggregate, excess moisture, segregation, and contamination.

Paving deficiencies: Uneven surface wearing course, spot bleeding,

ravelling, cracking of asphalt, honey combing of asphalt, and inadequate
compaction of asphalt.

Given the above observations and taking into account the range of
typical surface life, the lower value of surface life seems overstated with
respect to Nigeria. Given the complications with production and
application, the life of the applied wearing course is likely to be
significantly lower than that stated in the literature.

3.9 SUMMARY

This chapter presented the difficulties associated with, and

reliance on, data from Nigeria. While some data does exist, it has
generally been collected and stored in an unstructured format that
renders it of little applicability. What has been shown to be World Bank
experience, to derive data that is not only representative of the Nigerian
situation, but also defendable. At the very least, the data that has been
compiled, and the assumptions that have been made, serve as a logical

85
and sound starting point with which to develop and further validate as
more data is collected.

This chapter identified the various input factors that are required
to calculate the life cycle cost analysis and those that are required to
streamline maintenance and rehabilitation interventions. These variables
included traffic volumes and loads, environmental factors such as
climatic zones, typical designs applied to roads in Nigeria, sub-grade
types and strengths, condition rating, and reasonable surface life of the
various wearing course options. The next chapter discusses flow
diagrams, decision trees and life cycle costing, as well as the associated
processes in pavement design, construction operation and maintenance.

86
 Table 3.7: Data from RONET (World Bank, 2007b) on MR&R interventions for asphalt roads in Nigeria
Capital Road Works Unit Costs
Two-Lane Unit Costs of Road Works (USD
km)
Surface Current Condition Road Work Primary Secondary Tertiary Unclassified Urban
type

Good Condition Preventive 5,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 5,000

Treatment

Fair Condition Resurfacing 45,000 36,000 27,000 27,000 45,000

(Overlay)
Asphalt
Mix Poor Condition Strengthening 130,000 104,000 78,000 78,000 130,000
(Overlay)

Very Poor Condition Reconstruction 230,000 184,000 138,000 138,000 230,000

No Road New Construction 350,000 280,000 210,000 210,000 350,000

Good Condition Preventive 2,000 1,600 1,200 1,200 2,000

Treatment

Fair Condition Resurfacing (Reseal) 18,000 14,000 10,800 10,000 18,000

Surface
Poor Condition Strengthening 90,000 72,000 54,000 54,000 90,000
Treatment (Overlay)

Very Poor Condition Reconstruction 180,000 144,000 108,000 108,000 180,000

No Road New Construction 300,000 240,000 180,000 180,000 300,000

87
 CHAPTER FOUR

FLOW DIAGRAMS, DECISION TREES AND LIFE CYCLE COSTING

This chapter uses utilized the data and information acquired in the
preceding chapter to discuss tools that can be utilized by Road
Maintenance Agencies such as the Federal Roads Maintenance Agency
of Nigeria to streamline their maintenance and rehabilitation
interventions. It is intended that these tools provide an easy reference
by which a Road Maintenance site engineer can have access to
maintenance or rehabilitation interventions that suit the distress being
observed at the project level. Such tools include flow diagrams and
decision trees. It is also important that these streamlined maintenance
and rehabilitation intervention decisions are supported by life cycle
costing so that decision makers can have assurance that the correct
implementation has been applied, or will be applied.

4.1 RONET

The World Bank’s Road Network Evaluation Tool was created to

provide road managers the ability to better monitor the current condition
of road networks, plan allocation of resources, and assess the
consequences of macro-policies on the road network. It is specific to
sub-saharan Africa and provides a powerful tool to evaluate the road
network. RONET is a tool for assessing the performance of road
maintenance and rehabilitation policies and the importance of the road
sector for the economy. It demonstrates to stakeholders the importance
of continued support for road maintenance initiatives. It is this last
88
aspect where the true potential for the program (an elaborate
programmed series of Excel spreadsheets) lies. It is the programme’s
ability to provide decision makers with a simple output that allows the
funding requirements for a 20 year term to be visualized and budgeted
for.

However, it is still a program that requires further evaluation and

validation, although that Madagascar, Mozambique, Uganda and Ghana
have used it, it is a useful tool, but one disadvantage is the limited
ability to focus on a specific sector of the network, or a single facet of
the macro-program. For example, for the Federal road network in
Nigeria, the program lacks the flexibility to focus on only one road
design type, in FERMA’s case, asphalt concrete roads on a granular
base, and fine filtering the input parameters to focus on only one set of
conditions. The power of the program seems to lie in evaluating an
entire network with different road design types. Nevertheless, the
outputs are valuable to an agency that is looking to secure funding in
the long term that will allow for improved pavement performance at the
network level. Improved funding is of course what Roads Maintenance
Organization/Agencies like FERMA seeks.

The RONET program relies on a series of inputs that are specific to

the network to be evaluated. These include the management type,
network type, types of terrain, environmental factors, road condition
classes, traffic levels, and traffic categories. The program also requires
specific country data, including basic diagnostic parameters of the
country, such as land size, population, etc, traffic growth and pavement
width, capital road works unit costs, recurrent road works unit costs,
and traffic levels characteristics. After data has been inputted, an
89
Performance Assessment overview is conducted and a series of network
level outputs is provided.

4.1.1 RONET ANALYSIS

There is little data available on specific intervention costs in

Nigeria with which to apply to the RONET model. In an attempt to
evaluate the future cost requirements needed to improve the federal
road network in Nigeria, it became obvious that budgeting and resource
allocation is going to be one of the most important tools for FERMA to
address the hurdles that need to be overcome. Thus regional
intervention data from surrounding SSA countries were utilized. By
utilizing intervention costs that are known for other African nations a
good approximation of the likely cost in Nigeria can be obtained. The
majority of roads in the FERMA network are surfaced roads and
averages for these intervention types were utilized in the RONET
evaluation. The optimal Work Program output from the RONET
evaluation that was performed for the Federal road network in Nigeria is
summarized in Table 4.1.

90
Table 4.1 RONET Optimal Work Strategy output for Nigeria’s Federal Road Network. * IRI in m/km
Nigeria FERMA RONET
Optimal Work Program
Periodic Recurrent Road Road Net Average
Rehabilitation Maintenance Maintenance Agency Users Society Benefits Roughness
Year M US$) (M US$) (M US$) (M US$) (M US$) (M US$) (M US$) (IRI)
1 3,494.8 29.0 62.6 3,586.3 3,618.1 7,204.5 -2,752.2 4.25
2 0.0 0.0 62.6 62.6 3,745.8 3,808.4 846.2 4.44
3 0.0 0.0 64.8 64.8 3,880.1 3,944.9 927.1 4.65
4 434. 9 00. 68.8 503.7 3,999.3 4,503.0 3,204.7 4.33
5 0.0 58.0 69.0 127.0 4,140.3 4,267.3 380.5 4.51
6 0.0 94. 2 69.9 164.1 4,278. 3 4,442. 4 163.6 4.70
7 0.0 0. 0 73.7 73.7 4,436.3 4,510.0 282.0 4.94
8 0.0 0.0 74.3 74.3 4,603.0 4,677.3 312.4 5.19
9 1,957.1 137.7 76.6 2,171.4 4,504.7 6,676.1 -1,475.8 3.37
10 0.0 0.0 78.6 78.6 4,659.4 4,738.0 691.3 3.54
11 0.0 94. 2 72. 4 166.6 4,803.2 4,969. 9 692.0 3.70
12 0.0 43.5 72. 6 116.1 4,963.9 5,080.0 832.9 3.87
13 0.0 101.5 72. 9 174.4 5,123.9 5,298.3 2,612.6 4.01
14 372.8 0.0 77.4 450.1 5,276.8 5,726.9 426.8 3.73
15 0.0 58.0 80.2 138.2 5,455.4 5,593.6 247.6 3.90
16 0.0 87.0 79.6 166.6 5,644.4 5,811.0 65.6 4.09
17 0.0 145.0 73.6 218.6 5,815.7 6,034.3 78.0 4.26
18 0.0 0.0 72.7 72.7 6,025.7 6,098.4 265.7 4.50
19 0.0 0.0 74.1 74.1 6,247.2 6,321.2 319.1 4.74
20 0.0 0.0 75.4 75.4 6,480.9 6,556.3 377.0 5.01
Years 1-5 Total (M$) 3,929.7 87.0 327.8 4,344.5 19,383.6 23,728.0 2,606.3
Years 6-20 Total (M$) 2,329.8 761.1 1,123.9 4,214.9 78,318.8 82,533.7 5,890.9
Years 1-20 Total (M$) 6,259.5 848.1 1,451.8 8,559.3 97,702.4 106,261.7 8,497.2
Years 1-5 Total per Year (M$/year) 785.9 17.4 65.6 868.9 3,876.7 4,745.6 521.3
Years 6-20 Total per Year (M$/year) 155.3 50.7 74.9 281.0 5,221.3 5,502.2 392.7
Years 1-20 Total per Year (M$/year) 313.0 42.4 72.6 428.0 4,885.1 5,313.1 424.9
Present Value at 12% (M$) 4,680.2 295.2 585.4 5,560.8 36,827.2 42,388.0 2,725.5
Average (IRI) 4.29

Source: World Bank RONET, 2007

4.1.2 RONET RESULTS

The RONET Optimal Work Program output for Federal roads in

Nigeria indicates that an USD. 3.9 billion (N631.8bn) investment over
the next 5 years is needed to improve the road network through
rehabilitation measures and USD6.2 billion (over a trillion Naira) over the
next 20 years for rehabilitation is needed to improve the service level to
that which FERMA has earmarked. This is over and above funding that
would be required for routine or periodic maintenance, new
construction, or that would be required to address State and Municipal
roads throughout the country. What it does provide, however, is a good
reference for the funding that will be required, from a budgeting
standpoint, in the first 5 years of the program. FERMA (2007) estimates
that, in addition to their annual budgetary need of 40 billion Naira that is

91
required for routine and general maintenance of the road network, an
additional 70 billion Naira will be required per annum to address
rehabilitation. While no background data is given on the magnitude of
FERMA’s budgetary needs, it is much larger than that of the RONET
analysis which is based on regional, Africa specific data. The difference
could be attributed to input data used for the RONET analysis, but this
would infer that the prices for basic interventions are significantly higher
in Nigeria than they are for the countries utilized to obtain a sub-
Saharan average that were used in the RONET analysis.

Given the State of the Nigeria Federal road network, and the past
tradition of maintenance and rehabilitation, the budget that FERMA has
outlined is more in line with inefficient practices, while the RONET
derived analysis relies on state - of - the - art practices and application
efficiencies. The FERMA budget assessment over the next 5 years was
likely derived with little appreciation for pavement management and
intervention streamlining, which would account for the larger budget
requirement. However, the budget FERMA has outlined includes
reconstruction of seriously failed roads within the network, but not
expansion of roads to dual-carriageways. What the two sets of network
data do provide is an estimation of the potential savings that FERMA can
achieve by implementing a pavement management strategy, as outlined
through the RONET analysis process.

However, RONET does not provide a means of deciding which is

the most appropriate maintenance or rehabilitation intervention. It gives
a target number for FERMA to aim towards from a budgeting standpoint,
that is over and above what they have estimated internally, it does not

92
provide the ground level evaluation tools and assessments that are
required to deduce the most appropriate intervention.

4.2 OPTIMUM MAINTENANCE STRATEGY

As outlined by Haas et al (1994), the feasible set of alternatives

available for rehabilitation and maintenance may be much smaller that
the total available set because of costs, physical constraints, condition of
the existing pavement and regional factors. This is certainly the case for
Nigeria, where the available interventions are likely limited to those that
are in common practice throughout sub-Saharan Africa. These include
surface treatment, hot-mix resurfacing, pothole repair, rout and seal
cracking, hot-mix patching and other well practiced, simple techniques.
The costs associated with these interventions were presented in
Chapter 3 (see tables 3.5, 3.6 and 3.7). The process used to select the
feasible maintenance and/or rehabilitation intervention from a series of
alternatives can range from simple judgement to a decision tree or flow
diagram.

Ogurara and Iriakama (1987) established a means by which a

pavement maintenance management system (PMMS) for Nigeria could
be constructed. While it took into account the country as a whole, the
methodology and prioritization that was utilized presents merit for
modified adaptation. The PMMS identified pavement condition attributes
that were considered to significantly influence the overall acceptability of
the pavement to users. The physical condition in terms of physical
distress and surface roughness were considered as the major attributes

93
on Nigerian roads. Their measured values were combined to give an
overall pavement condition rating score.

A combined condition rating score including the results from a

physical survey and results from International roughness Index (IRI)
data provides a means of prioritizing which sections or roads within the
network or project receive maintenance or rehabilitation interventions
over another. The physical distress derived from physical condition
surveys should include surface deformation (rutting), surface defects
(bleeding), cracking (alligator, longitudinal and transverse) and failures
(potholes and patching). By using distress deduct points based on each
distress manifestation, a physical distress rating (PDR) has been derived.
The rating scheme to derive the PDR is highlighted in Table 4.2. If a
distress is not observed, it is given a perfect score for that distress type,
and the total of the distress scores are summed to give the PDR.

Similarly, the IRI has been used to produce a Roughness Distress

Rating (RDR). According to data from the World Bank ROCKS and
RONET programs, the IRI is utilized to determine maintenance and
rehabilitation intervention. Table 4.3 summarizes the criteria that are
used from IRI data to produce the RDR. The combination of the PDR
and the RDR are combined to produce an Overall Condition Rating
(OCR) that is utilized, through the decision tree developed in Figure 4.1,
to prioritize maintenance and rehabilitation interventions. The decision
tree utilizes both the OCR and the RCR data to deduce the appropriate
priority of the road or section. While physical distress and roughness are
correlated, substantial longitudinal cracking, for example, may not translate
into a poor IRI reading, and conversely, a poor IRI reading may not have
been expected given an adequate PDR. Having the ability to streamline

94
priorities based on both factors allows for better allocation of needs based on
roads that are exhibiting distresses.
Table 4.2: Physical Distress Rating (PDR ) Criteria (World Bank, 2007b)

Distress Very Good Good Fair Poor Very Poor

Surface
25 – 20 20 – 15 15 – 10 10 – 5 5–0
deformation
Surface
25 – 20 20 – 15 15 – 10 10 – 5 5–0
defects
Cracking 25 – 20 20 – 15 15 – 10 10 – 5 5–0
Failures 25 – 20 20 – 15 15 – 10 10 – 5 5–0
TOTAL 100 – 80 80 – 60 60 – 40 40 – 20 20 – 0
RDR Rating
50 to 40 40 to 30 30 to 20 20 to 10 10 to 0
(Total/2)

Table 4.3. Roughness Distress Rating (RDR) criteria (adapted from the World Bank,
2007b)

Distress Very Good Good Fair Poor Very Poor

IRI <4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 > 10
Rating 100 – 80 80 – 60 60 – 40 40 – 20 20 – 0
RDR Rating
50 to 40 40 to 30 30 to 20 20 to 10 10 to 0
(Total/2)

On a road from Ibadan to Ilorin in Nigeria, the IRI was calculated to be

6m/km and the physical distress survey highlighted that the road was in a fair state
with respect to both longitudinal cracking and potholing with ratings of 12 and 14
respectively, with some bleeding (18 or a rating of Good). The total PDR would be
calculated as follows.
PDR = [∑ distress] /2
= [Surface deformation +Surface Defects + Cracking + Failures]
/2
= [25+18 + 12 + 14] /2
= 69/2 = 34.5 (Equation 4.1)
A road with an IRI of 6 results in a RCR of 60/2 = 30
OCR = RCR + PDR = 34.5 + 30 = 64.5

95
 OCR > 80

Yes
No

P4 Yes RCR > 40

OCR 60 - 80
No

No Yes RCR > 30 Yes P3

OCR 40 - 60 No P2

Yes RCR > 30 Yes

No P1 No

Figure 4.1: The prioritization process based on Overall Condition Rating (OCR) and
Roughness Condition Rating (RCR) (World Bank, 2007b).

Utilizing the OCR for the Ibadan to Ilorin road, leads us through
the flow diagram in Figure 4.1 to the left of the first question: Is the
OCR greater than 80?. The second junction point is whether the OCR is
between 60 and 80, which it is. The RCR needs to be considered next,
and whether it is greater to or equal to 30, which it is. This leads to a
priority of P3.

A road that carries a higher amount of traffic (ADT) or axles loads

(ESALs) should be given a higher weighting when calculating the OCR of
the road. For this purpose, an adjustment factor should be applied. For

96
Federal roads in Nigeria, Oguara and Iriakuma (1987) applied
adjustment factors on roads based on three traffic levels for each
functional class of road. However, they apportioned more priority
through application of their adjustment factors to roads with lower
volume and loads, which is contradictory to what should be applied in
practice. According to the traffic classification in Section 3.3, a five class
designation was used to define traffic loads and volumes on Federal
roads in Nigeria. The appropriate adjustment factors for each traffic
level are presented in Table 4.4. The adjustment factor for the specified
traffic class should be applied to the OCR to provide an adjusted OCR.

Table 4.4: Adjustment factors based on traffic classification to be utilized

for priority analysis (World Bank, 2007b).

Traffic Adjustment
Level Number of vehicles
class factor
TC1 Low volume ADT < 700: Limited heavy 1.00
vehicles
TC2 Moderate with no ADT 700 to 1500; limited 0.95
trucks heavy vehicles
TC3 Moderate trucks ADT 700 to 1500; heavy 0.90
vehicles
TC4 High ADT 1500 to 2200; heavy 0.85
vehicles
TC5 Congested heavy ADT > 2200; heavy 0.80
traffic vehicles

The ability to assess the condition of pavement in a consistent and

uniform manner is to the benefit of the pavement management system.
As such, a guide for the estimation of pavement condition rating and of
associated maintenance and/or rehabilitation strategies is required. The
Ontario Ministry of Transportation (MTO, 1989) provides a good means

97
of classifying the condition of a pavement according to the extent of
distresses observed or recorded (Table 4.4).

4.3 COST MODEL AND LIFE CYCLE COST ANALYSIS

Life-cycle cost analysis (L.C.C.A) is an evaluation technique

applicable for the consideration of certain transportation investment
decisions. The LCCA approach enables the total cost comparison of
competing preservation alternatives. The most meaningful way of
comparing combined costs over a life cycle is to calculate the present
worth of cost (PWC). In this method, all future costs are discounted to
the present worth of costs by using an acceptable discount rate. The
rehabilitation option with the lowest expected PWC for a standard level
of service should be selected as the most appropriate rehabilitation
option. The PWC is calculated using the following formula.

PWC = p + ∑ Aj (1 + r)-j + Sn (1+r)-n (Equation 4.2)

Where PWC = Present worth of costs ($)

P = Initial rehabilitation costs ($)

Aj = Relevant costs occurring during the analysis

period after j years (present $)

Sn = Salvage value costs at the end of the analysis

period n years later ($)

n = Analysis period (years)

r = Discount rate (%/100)

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Table 4.5: A guide to classifying condition rating according to observed or
recorded distress (MTO, 1989).
Condition rating Recommended
Condition rating – description
– value intervention
80-100 Pavement in excellent condition with few Routine maintenance
bumps or depressions (slight surface
deformation). No surface defects such as
streaking, potholes or cracking distresses.
Ride is very good (8 – 10).
60 – 79 Pavement in good condition with few bumps Corrective maintenance
or depressions (slight to moderate surface on an annual basis or
deformation) intermittent slight to moderate sooner when necessary.
surface defects and/or cracking distresses.
Ride is good (6 – 8)
40 – 59 Pavement in fair condition with intermittent to Corrective maintenance
frequent bumps or depressions (slight to on a semi-annual basis
moderate surface deformation). Intermittent or as necessary.
to frequent moderate surface defects and/or Possible candidate for
cracking distresses. Ride is fair (4 – 6). holding strategy
depending on
performance level and
history. Candidate for
rehabilitation program
in 3 to 5 years.
20 – 39 Pavement in poor condition with frequent Corrective maintenance
bumps or depressions (moderate surface to retard rapid
deformation). Frequent moderate to severe deterioration of
surface defects and/or cracking distresses. serviceability level.
Localized slight to moderate alligator cracking Candidate for
may be present indicating pavement rehabilitation program
structural failure. Ride is poor (2 – 4). in 1 to 3 years.
0 -19 Pavement in very poor condition with Corrective maintenance
extensive bumps or depressions form when and where
moderate to severe surface deformation. necessary to maintain
Extensive to severe surface defects and/or minimal safety and
cracking distresses. Frequent slight to serviceability level.
moderate alligator cracking may be present, Rehabilitation within 1
indicating pavement structural failures. Ride is year.
very poor (0-2).

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 The PWC method typically comprises both agency costs and road
user costs. Agency costs include the initial rehabilitation costs,
maintenance during the life-cycle, future capital costs and the salvage
value at the end of the analysis period. Road user costs include delay
costs due to rehabilitation activities, vehicle operating costs (VOCs),
accident costs and time costs.

The use of the present worth of cost method requires the selection
of a suitable discount rate. This rate is dependent on several factors,
including the effective rate of borrowing money and the rate of return
that money can earn if invested. The World Bank utilizes a 12% discount
rate for their RONET program (World Bank, 2008) and Nigerian projects
listed in the ROCKS database have also been applied a 12% discount
rate. The SATCC (2001) suggests a 3% to 10% discount rate, however
given the political, economic and transparency climate in Nigeria a
discount rate above 10% is not unrealistic. Therefore, a 12% discount
rate in accordance with the World Bank has been applied, in addition to
a moderate discount rate of 6% will be applied to the various life –cycle
analyses for the various FERMA schedules.

The salvage value, or residual value, is the value of the pavement

at the end of the analysis period and is subtracted from the life-cycle
cost of the pavement over the analysis period. The salvage value can be
determined by using a straight-line depreciation as follows:

Salvage value = [1 – A/B] * cost of new overlay (Equation 4.3

Where A = Age of the overlay (years)

B = Expected life of the overlay (years)

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 Incorporation of road user costs into L.C.C.A is complex, but when
information is unavailable, as is the case of Nigeria, the task becomes
virtually impossible. Luckily, this cost item can be disregarded in the
comparative economic analysis of rehabilitation works for a particular
road because it is usually the same for the different options. This is
because the various options tend to meet similar design requirements
over the same design period (SATCC, 2001).

A summary of the input variables used in L.C.C.A and PWC

analyses for the various rehabilitation plans for the various FERMA roads
is highlighted in Table 4.6.

4.3.1 PERFORMANCE CURVES

Oguara and Iriakuma (1987) developed performance curves for

various maintenance and rehabilitation interventions. The curves, which
were slightly convex, did provide an introductory analysis of the rate of
deterioration of various interventions in the Nigerian context and their
relative costs. The critical overall condition rating score that would
trigger a rehabilitation interventions was set at 35, which is similar to
that utilized by the Onitario. Ministry of transportation (MTO,1989) as
outlined in table 4.4. Application of linear degradation of pavement is
not reasonable, as the level of service for a given rehabilitation strategy
would be greater earlier in its term and deteriorate more rapidly towards
the end of its term based on a load and time domain plot (Fwa, 1990).
When time dependent plots are used, the shape varies with an
introductory concave phase, a middle linear or transition phase, and a
convex shape towards the end of the pavement lifecycle to form an “S”

101
shaped degradation or performance curve (Fwa, 1990). Given the
potential for a myriad of curve types, and based on the work conducted
by Oguara and Iriakuma (1987) that was specific to Nigerian pavements,
convex curves were derived for life-cycle costing for this project. For
this, curve functions were developed from the Oguara and Iriakuma
(1987) study from the performance trends outlined for the various
rehabilitation interventions. The functions were utilized to derive
performance curves in this study with a rehabilitation trigger value set at
35. As the trigger value is the key component (i.e rehabilitate when the
condition rating reaches 35) the shape of the curve prior to this point is
less of a consequence for this study.

Table 4.6: Input variables used for PWC and L.C.C.A analyses
(Fwa, T.F, 1990)

Input Variables
Discount rate 6% and 12%
Cost of cement (N $/KG) 0.33
Maximum Dry Density of aggregate 1800Kg/m3
base
Dosage of cement stabilization 3%
Lane width 3.5m
Analysis period 20 years

The SATCC (2001) provides lifespan estimates for various MR&R

interventions (Section 3.8). For a given intervention, a range of years is
provided that represents the time that will pass before the intervention
will have to be rehabilitated. The upper data point is representative of
quality construction or a road that has lower traffic loading, all things

102
being equal, while the lower limit is representative of a more rapid
pavement deterioration as a consequence of less stringent construction
control or a higher traffic load over the lifespan of the intervention.

A combination of the work set out in Oguara and Iriakuma, (1987)

and SATCC (2001) was used to create performance curves for four
rehabilitation interventions (Figure 4.2) that are known to be used in
Nigeria (Esenwa, 2008). These include:

• Chipseal
• Double surface seal
• Asphalt concrete – 1 lift; and
• Asphalt concrete – 2 lifts.

Each rehabilitation option is composed of three separate

performance curves (Figures 4.3 to 4.6). The third curves is
representative of drastic pavement deterioration which is indicative of
very poor construction practice, or of heavily overloaded pavement. The
literature review pointed to several construction related factors that
accounted for the high prevalence of premature pavement failures.
These factors included inferior materials being used, poor quality control
practices resulting in thinner layers being incorporated into the
pavement design, and disregard for the specified pavement design. As a
result of these factors, a drastic performance curve was established for
each intervention at a point two years less than the minimum
performance curve, which is likely more representative of SSA.
Some of the more progressive African nations for example. South
Africa have a multitude of MR&R interventions readily available.
Conversely, Nigeria does not have interventions over and above those
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listed above. Additionally, the quality control of the products being
produced, such as asphalt concrete (AC), is of such poor quality that
recommending further rehabilitation intervention types may result in
further pavement problems due to limited experience with these
products.
Performance curves were also created using the Oguara and
Iriakuma (1987) derived functions for the same series of rehabilitation
interventions, but incorporating cement stabilized base course. Stabilized
granular bases with cement are used in Nigeria, and may serve as cost
effective means of improving both riding quality and pavement
longevity. As a result of stabilizing the base at the same time as a
rehabilitation intervention, a shift of the performance curve (Figure 4.7)
by 10 condition rating points is proposed, in addition to increasing the
lifespan by 1 year for the minimum and maximum curve. Improvement
in the base over which a wearing course would be overlaid is likely to
both improve the condition of the wearing course as well as increase the
lifespan of the intervention as a result of a more structurally sound
system. An improvement in condition rating was applied for the
performance curve. However, no shift in the expected lifespan of the
intervention as a result of a more structurally sound system. An
improvement in condition rating was applied for the performance curve.
However, no shift in the expected lifespan of the pavement was applied
due to poor construction techniques or extreme overloading that would
still degrade the rehabilitation intervention irrespective of whether the
base was stabilized or not. The base stabilized performance curves are
presented in Figures 4.8 to 4.11.

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4.3.2 PWC Calculations

Typical designs in Nigeria according to the Overseas Road Note

(ORN) (TRL, 1993) were outlined in Chapter 3. Designs were postulated
for both traffic condition (TC) and Nigerian sub-grade strength (NSG)
and consisted of either a thin wearing course layer (chip seal or double
surface seal) or asphalt concrete. It is the upper two layers (base and
wearing course) that are those layers which are the major cornerstones
of rehabilitation interventions for surfaced flexible pavements.

Performance curves derived for the various rehabilitation

interventions were used to produce various strategies over a 20-year
rehabilitation life-cycle. A condition rating trigger-value of 35 was utilized
to calculate the rehabilitation strategy, which was derived from the work
conducted by Oguara and Iriakuma (1987) along with Ontario’s Ministry
of Transportation (1989), where a condition rating less than 35 is a
candidate for near-immediate rehabilitation. Rehabilitation strategies for
the various rehabilitation options were carried out for the different traffic
classifications and sub-grade types. A summary is provided here.

For the lower traffic categories (TC1 and TC2), combinations of chip seal
(CS), double seal (DS) and stabilized base (-B) rehabilitation
interventions were applied for the 20-year analysis period. Table 4.7 and
4.8 summarize the PWC for the condition rating curves and various
intervention costs at a discount rate of 12% and 6% respectively. The
most cost effective option for each condition rating curve and
intervention cost is highlighted in light green.

105
Figure 4.2: Condition rating curves for maintenance and rehabilitation interventions for flexible pavement in
Nigeria (adapted from Oguara and Iriakuma, 1987 and SATCC, 2001)

106
 Figure 4.3: Performance curve for chip seal rehabilitation of Federal Roads in Nigeria (Oguara and
Iriakuma, 1987 and SATCC, 2001).

Figure 4.4: Performance curve for double seal rehabilitation of Federal Roads in Nigeria (Oguara and
Iriakuma, 1987 and SATCC, 2001).

107
108
109
110
Figure 4.11: Performance curve for 1-lift Asphalt Concrete with a stabilised based for Federal
Roads in Nigeria (Oguara and Iriakuma, 1987 and SATCC, 2001).

For intermediate traffic volumes and loads (TC3), a combination of

thin wearing courses and asphalt concrete is investigated to assess
whether upgrading to a high quality wearing course is desirable from a
life-cycle cost standpoint. Costs associated with upgrading to AC from
thin wearing course is more expensive than continuing with the thin
surfacing option, irrespective of whether is a double surface seal or a
chip seal. While the AC overlay would likely improve the vehicle
operating costs, a thorough assessment by the Agency would need to be
made to justify the cost of upgrading the wearing course without
strengthening the base as well.

Heavy traffic loads are encountered in the TC4 and TC5 traffic
categories, where the later is more indicative of higher proportions of
overloaded trucks. The standard designs for these two traffic categories
differ with respect to the underlying base and sub-base layer

111
thicknesses. The AC wearing course is the same standard and thickness
and thus the PWC for the two traffic classes can be handled collectively.
For this, however, an average base thickness of 238mm is applied where
base stabilization is utilized as part of the life-cycle assessment.
Combinations of 1-lift of asphalt concrete (AC-1), 2-lifts of asphalt
concrete (AC-2) and stabilized base (designated with a =B’) rehabilitation
interventions were applied for the 20 years analysis period. Table 4.9
and 4.10 summarize the PWC for the condition rating curves and various
intervention costs at a discount rate of 12% and 6% respectively. The
most cost effective option for each condition rating curve and
intervention cost is highlighted and bolded.

112
113
114
4.4 DISCUSSION OF RESULTS

Both FERMA (2007) and Oke (2007) outline that an approximate

USD 667.2 million will be required per annum over the next 5 years
(total of USD 6.67 billion) to improve the federal road network to better
state. Yet, there is little explanation on where this figure comes from or
the state in which the investment aims to improve the roads. The World
Bank’s RONET program, which is used as a tool to estimate the budget
required over a life-cycle to improve the condition of a road network,
provides for a different interpretation of the monetary requirements.

The RONET derived figure, which used country specific data, was
approximately, USD 4.54 billion over a 5-years period for 34,000km of
roads contained under FERMA’s umbrella. The difference between the
RONET data and that which is highlighted in the literature provides for
an understanding of the great deal of uncertainty that surrounds the
enormous task of upgrading the federal roads in Nigeria to those which
are of an acceptable level for health, economic and social prosperity. It
underlines, however, the gross inefficiencies of the current rehabilitation
program and what can be achieved once these barriers have been
broken.

The discrepancy in budget stems from the uncertainty associated

with the overall condition of the federal roads in Nigeria, the costs of
materials that will be required for maintenance and rehabilitation
interventions and the costs associated with undertaking the
interventions. The budget also assumes that proper interventions will be
applied at the appropriate time according to a pavement management
strategy. Given historical perspective, it is likely that the budget required

115
to undertake FERMA’S lofty goals should be somewhere between the
FERMA and RONET derived budgets.

Irrespective of the budget size, the fact that the task at hand is a
formidable one points to the urgency for a maintenance and
rehabilitation strategy that will maximize Nigeria’s investment. Nigeria
has embarked upon pavement management at the federal road network
level as a means of improving the overall condition of their most
important national asset. For this, a pavement management strategy is
required to start this journey, one that will allow them to implement
applicable rehabilitation intervention options at the right time to optimize
expenses and stabilize road infrastructure budgets. To do this, the PWC
analysis have been undertaken for various traffic classes, rehabilitation
interventions, condition rating curves and discount rates.

4.4.1 LOW TRAFFIC VOLUME ROADS

Low traffic volume roads (TC1 and TC2) are constructed with a
chip seal or double surface seal. For a 12% discount rate, which is not
uncommon for sub-Saharan African Nations, there is no change in
optimum strategy for both the maximum intervention cost and minimum
intervention cost. All curves and cost, other than the mean Africa cost,
highlight that a chip seal-specific strategy (CS, CS, CS) over the 20-year
analysis period is optimal in all cases. Utilizing the mean Africa cost data
alters the optimal maintenance and rehabilitation strategy from chip seal
specific to a CS-CS-DS strategy for the minimum condition rating curve
only (Figure 4.2). The drastic curve, which is likely the most indicative of

116
Nigeria’s state at the present time, does not alter the optimum MR&R
strategy.

Application of a more reasonable discount rate of 6% does not

alter the optimum rehabilitation strategy under all condition. The PWC is
much greater for all cases, which would be expected given the lower
discount rate, and underlies the importance of identifying the most
appropriate discount rate to apply to economic analyses. A more refined
discount rate will assist in better budgeting as well since the price life
cycle cost for higher discount rates is much greater than for a more
reasonable rate. Further underlying the need for more refined input data
is the intervention cost to apply, as there is a significant cost fluctuation
when varying costs are applied. All of the costs applied are
representative of the region and can occur throughout Nigeria. It is quite
likely that the prices will vary depending on the region within Nigeria,
accessibility to a source of material, in addition to price fluctuations due
to black market trading.

While the optimum strategy does not change between a 12% and
6% discount rate, the ranking of strategies for each data set does vary
for the maximum and minimum condition rating curves (Table 4.1.1).
Application of the drastic condition rating curve does not alter the
ranking of intervention strategies under all cost functions.

Incorporation of cement stabilization into the rehabilitation

strategies does not affect the optimum strategy. The increased cost
associated with stabilizing the base with cement, coupled with the
relatively small increase in pavement longevity associated with the
intervention, is cost prohibitive in the scenarios analyzed. The relatively

117
high cost of cement in Nigeria compared with global price is likely a key
factor in the higher relative PWC when base stabilization is incorporated
into the rehabilitation strategy. An assumption of improved pavement
performance of 1-year needs validation and may also be a contributing
factor of the results achieved. Analysis of additional stabilization
technologies, (both traditional and non-traditional) may serve as a
means to improve both pavement performance and longevity.

4.4.2 HIGH TRAFFIC VOLUME ROADS

High traffic volume roads are constructed with a single

classification of asphalt concrete. This reliance on one property of AC
over the entire country of such vast climatic and varying traffic loads is
problematic. Asphalt thickness, not characteristic, is what changes in
Nigeria where a more double wearing course is needed, such as highly
trafficked roads or intersections where surface temperatures are much
higher. Improving the properties and availability of different types of
asphalt concrete will go a long way to improving the most important
trunk roads contained in Nigeria, rather than trying to optimize the
performance of the type of asphalt concrete they currently endorse.

118
Table 4.11: Rank of rehabilitation strategy according to PWC for low volume Federal Roads
(SATCC 2001).

The optimum rehabilitation strategy for high traffic volume roads

(TC4 and TC5) over a 20-year period with a 12% discount rate is the
same for both the maximum and minimum condition rating curves and
all intervention costs. In these cases, 1-lift of asphalt concrete over the
20-year analysis period is optimum. There is considerable price variation
between the minimum and maximum costs applied for the interventions,
which echoes the need to obtain more precise costing for asphalt
concrete over all climatic regions of Nigeria. The drastic curve, which is
likely the most indicator of the Nigerian federal road network at this
time, especially for the heavily loaded roads (TC5), requires the same
optimum rehabilitation strategy for all intervention costs. For the drastic
curve, a combination of 1-lift and 2-lifts of asphalt concrete (AC-1, AC-1,
AC-2) over the analysis period was determined to be optimum.

Utilization of a 6% discount rate does not change the optimum

maintenance strategy for all condition rating curves or intervention

119
costs. It is probable, however, that through refinement or improvement
in the properties and availability of different asphalt concrete
classifications throughout the country that the discount rate will have a
greater impact on the PWC.

The ranking of rehabilitation options for highly trafficked Nigerian

federal roads is presented in Table 4.12. The optimum rehabilitation
strategy does not change when the different discount rate is applied for
all condition rating curves and intervention costs. There is almost no
change in ranking moving from a 12% discount rate to a 6% discount
rate for all cases analyzed, with only swapping the secondary and
tertiary strategies in some cases. This is the converse to what was found
for low volume federal roads when a lower discount rate is applied for
highly trafficked roads, the application of a more moderate discount rate
does not affect the optimum rehabilitation strategy. It is likely that the
price of AC will be a more sensitive cost factor when determining the
PWC.

Incorporation of base stabilization into the state of rehabilitation

interventions for highly trafficked roads does little to influence the
optimum strategy. The cost of base stabilization when considering AC
overlays is a much smaller fraction of the rehabilitation costs than the
same intervention applied to a low volume road with a thin wearing
course. Yet, the increase in condition rating and pavement longevity
does not produce an adequate benefit over the pavement lifecycle to
justify the cost. Validation of the benefit that stabilization has, in
addition to other stabilization products over an above cement, should be
conducted as it is a common technique used throughout. North America
and other sub-Saharan African Nation.
120
 Application of an accurate discount rate and intervention cost
underlies the critical importance in determining a PWC that is
budgetable. Improvement in intervention cost accuracy and discount
rate forecasting will improve the condition of the Federal road network
as a consequence of a refined maintenance and rehabilitation strategy.
However, it will also enable Nigeria to design better roads from the
outset. These two factors are critical to improved pavement network
condition and better fiscal management.

4.5 SUMMARY

This chapter assessed the financial requirements that a road

maintenance agency such as FERMA will need to budget for to improve
the federal road network in Nigeria. The RONET determined cost is
much higher than the literature quoted figures, underlying the need to
further refine the analysis. The result does, at the very least, provide a
long term budget forecast that FERMA can utilize to apply the optimum
strategies that were determined for the various federal road
classifications. It was found that the condition rating curve and discount
rate influences the optimum rehabilitation strategy for low volume (TC1
and TC2) federal roads. Conversely, neither the condition rating curve
nor the discount rate influences the optimum strategy for highly
trafficked and loaded roads. Stabilization in all cases does not impart a
great influence on the optimum strategy for all roads. While the inputs
used in the PWC analyses requires validation, the results obtained are
extremely valuable for FERMA, as this will enable them to streamline
their rehabilitation efforts and save money in the long term.

121
Table 4.12: Rank of rehabilitation strategy according to PWC for high volume Federal Roads
(SATCC 2001).

122
 CHAPTER 5

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The state of the federal roads in Nigeria can be greatly improved

through pavement design and management tools. Road have been
constructed as is the case for sub-Saharan Africa in general, with little
consequence of the maintenance and rehabilitation that is required to
maintain the asset. Further, the roads that are in use today were
constructed decades ago and have long outlived their design life. Nigeria
has realized this and has responded to the need for better federal roads
through the establishment of FERMA, who have a mandate to improve
the federal road system through the use of pavement management and
appropriate MR&R interventions. The work presented in this thesis is a
viable tool for FERMA’s in her quest to create a pavement management
strategy.

5.1 CONCLUSIONS

The Federal road network in Nigeria is composed of approximately

32,100km of surfaced flexible pavement structures. The state of these
roads is questionable given available data on network pavement
condition, although FERMA does indicate that 15% of the roads are in
‘Very Good’ condition and 20% are in ‘Good’ condition. A network
assessment of the true condition of the federal roads would be a
valuable tool in better streamlining the rehabilitation intervention
required to improve the network.

123
 A RONET analysis utilizing World Bank data for Nigeria was
conducted. The investment required over the next ten years was found
to be considerable less than that of the requirement that is quoted in
the literature. It is interesting to note that the literature values are not
supported with any data or explanation, so their magnitude is
questionable. Certainly, the budget requirement outlined by the RONET
analysis does, at the very least, provide FERMA with a starting point
with which to budget towards. Once better data on the distribution
condition rating for the network is determined, along with more accurate
rehabilitation intervention costs, a more refined budget can be
determined.

Five different traffic classifications were outlined for the federal

roads in Nigeria. Essentially, they can be divided into two groups
according to the level of traffic and type of wearing course. On one hand
we have the low volume federal roads (ADT<1500) which are surface
with a thin bituminous wearing course applied as a single seal or double
surface seal. On the other side of the spectrum we have more loaded
roads with high traffic volume and/or a high percentage of heavy trucks
(ADT>1500) which are surfaced with either 1-lift or 2-lift of AC. A clear
need exists for Nigeria to expand upon the types and designations of AC
it uses, as a ‘one size fits all’ classification of binder and asphalt is not
logical over a country with such vast climate and traffic variations.
Focusing on more appropriate flexible pavement wearing courses that
are applied with a greater level of quality control will go a long way to
improving both the longevity of the surface and produce a network with
a better overall pavement condition.

124
 Condition rating curves were created for the various rehabilitation
interventions for typical designs utilized for federal road in Nigeria.
Drastic condition rating curves were created to better reflect the present
state and rate of degradation of rehabilitation interventions. Other than
increasing the life cycle cost of the pavement, the application of the
drastic curve for the ranges of intervention costs did not alter the
optimum rehabilitation strategy. For low volume federal roads, utilization
of a 6% discount rate instead of the 12% discount rate which is applied
by the World Bank for many SSA nations, altered the optimum
rehabilitation strategy for the maximum condition rating curve only from
a single chip seal specific rehabilitation schedule to one incorporating a
double seal specific rehabilitation strategy. For all other cases, a single
chip seal was more cost effective than application of a double seal over
the 20 year analysis period.

For high volume or loaded roads, 1-lift of AC is more cost effective

than application of two-lifts. This held true under all condition rating
curves, intervention costs and discount rates.

Utilization of a cement stabilized base as part of the rehabilitation

intervention had no influence on the optimum rehabilitation strategy.
While this was expected for the lower traffic federal roads where the
cost of stabilizing the base was disproportionately high when compared
to the cost of applying the surface seal, it was not expected for the
higher traffic roads. An improvement factor of 10 condition rating points
and a 1-year increase in the pavement performance was apportioned to
a stabilized base. It is possible that this is an underestimation and a
more refined analysis would prove that stabilization would have a higher

125
influence on the optimum rehabilitation strategy. Present Worth Cost
(PWC) analysis should be applied for different stabilizers.

The work conducted in this thesis provides a good basis for a road
maintenance agency like FERMA to ascertain the condition of Nigeria’s
Federal road network. While assumptions have been made, out of
necessity, the information obtained through the PWC analyses is
immediately implementable and outlines the value of this work.

5.2 RECOMMENDATIONS

The use of assumptions in the analyses in this document is an

unfortunate reality when dealing with federal road networks in the
developing world. This certainly proved to be the case for Nigeria.
However, the difference is that they have shown commitment to
improve on their federal road network through FERMA, but also by
instituting a pavement management strategy to preserve their most
important national asset.

Every effort has been made to utilize the most accurate and
representative data. What is required now is validation of the results
that were achieved and this would provide an excellent starting point for
further research. More refined cost data and condition rating of the
Federal road network would be an invaluable tool. Once more data
becomes available the life-cycle costs can be fine tuned and refined to
better reflect not only the federal system, but also at regional levels
where material and climate differences may predominate.

126
 It is noted that application of a more reasonable discount rate of
6% does not alter the optimum rehabilitation strategy under all
conditions. The PWC is much greater for all cases, which would be
expected given the lower discount rate. This highlights the importance
of identifying the most appropriate discount due to apply to economic
analysis. A more refined discount rate will assist in better budgeting as
well as the price life cycle cost for higher discount rate is much greater
than for a more reasonable rate. This further demonstrates the need to
use more refined input data as the intervention cost, as there is a
significant cost fluctuation when varying costs are applied.

Application of an accurate discount rate and intervention cost are

both of critical importance in determining a PWC that is budgetable.
Improvement in intervention cost accuracy and discount rate forecasting
will assist Nigeria through improved condition of their federal roads as a
consequence of better roads from the outset. These two factors are
critical to achieve improved pavement network condition and better
fiscal management.

There is considerable price variation between the minimum and

maximum costs applied for the interventions, this echoes the need to
obtain more precise costing for asphalt concrete over all climate regions
of Nigeria.

Validation of the benefit that different stabilization has, (eg; Lime,

Nanomaterial etc) in addition to other stabilization products over
cement, should be conducted as it is a common technique used
throughout North America and other sub-Saharan African Nations.

127
 Lastly, validation of the condition rating curves is essential as
slight differences in pavement longevity will have impacts on the PWC
and resultant optimum strategy to be applied.

5.3 SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER/FUTURE RESEARCH

• Nanotechnology for sustainable infrastructure in the 21st
century.

• An appraisal of Highways Maintenance by contract and direct

labour operations in Nigeria.

• Highways maintenance in Nigeria: Lessons from other

countries.

• An appraisal of the cost management practices in the delivery

of capital projects in Nigeria.

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