Structured Problem Solving - Using The 7 Step Methodology
Structured Problem Solving - Using The 7 Step Methodology
• Conducting Analysis
                                                              1
Problem solving is the essence of consulting……
                                                    2                    3
    Client       1
   problem
                                                    Structure            Prioritize
                 Define problem
                                                    problem              issues               4
                                                                                              Plan
  Think next iteration:
                            7                                                                 analyses
  what are user/team‟s                             Communication                              and
  next priorities?          Develop
                            recomm                                                            work
                            endations                                    5
                                             6                                                        Think effectiveness:
                                             Synthesise                  Conduct                      How can the
                                             findings                    Analyses                     resources be utilized
                                                                         and work                     optimally?
                                                                                                          xxxx   xxxxxx
                                                                                                         xxxxxx   xxxxxx
                 Think buy-in and         Think “So what”: how do         Think answers not              xxxxxx   xxxxxx
                                                                                                         xxxxxx xxxxxxxx
                                                                                                         xxxxxx xxxxxxxx
                                                                                                                              3
Step 1: Problem Definition
                                            2             3
        Client     1
       problem
                                            structure     Prioritize
                   Define problem
                                            problem       issues       4
                                                                       Plan
                            7                                          analyses
                            Develop                                    and
                            recomme-                                   work
                            ndations 6                    5
                                     Synthesis findings   Conduct
                                                          analyses
SOURCE: McKinsey
                                                                                  4
Problem definition worksheet is a tool that consultants use
during the problem definition stage
• Specific
• Measurable
• Action-oriented
• Time-bound
                                                    6
PROBLEM STATEMENT WORKSHEET – EXAMPLE
1                                                        3
    Perspective/context                                      Decision makers/stakeholders
    • Consolidation                                          •   CEO of ABC Bank
    • Deregulation leading to many new non-traditional       •   ABC Board of Directors
      players e.g. microfinance banks                        •   Shareholders
    • Banking crisis                                         •   CBN
    • Emergence of internet and electronic-banking
2                                                        4
    Criteria for success                                     Scope of solution space
    Close the N1billion gap within 2 years                   • Focus on retail banking only
                                                             • Focus on Nigeria only
5                                                        6
    Constraints within solution space                        Key sources of insights
    Keep operating the bank as an independent                Pass studies on banking, CBN website, Financial
    company                                                  and banking databases and journals etc
Step 2: Problem Structuring
                                          2                  3
    Client   1
   problem
                                          Structure          Prioritize
             Define problem
                                          problem            issues       4
                                                                          Plan
                     7                                                    analyses
                                         Communication                    and
                     Develop
                     recomm                                               work
                     endations                               5
                                    6
                                    Synthesise               Conduct
                                    findings                 Analyses
                                                             and work
                                                                                     8
Principle of structured problem solving
                                          Key advantages
                                          • Facilitates problem-solving
                                           – Parts of problem easier to
                                             handle
                                           – Ensures completeness
                                           – Focus topics more easily
                                             recognisable
                                          • Facilitates planning
                                           – Working in parallel possible
                                           – Difficulties easier to detect
                                           – Scheduling more transparent
                                           – Goal-oriented approach
                                          • Facilitates communication
                                           – Concentration on key topics
                                           – Context clearer
SOURCE: McKinsey
Logic trees are tools that help to systematically structure a problem
                                                Second line
                                                of support
Problem                         First line
Statement                       of support
                                                        Consistent
Worksheet
                  Basic                      Relevant
                                                                     Mutually
                  question to                                        Exclusive
                  be resolved
                                                                     Collectively
                                                                     Exhaustive
                                                        Consistent
Logic trees are the link between the problem statement worksheet
and a list of manageable questions
                                         Why use logic trees?
Data-Driven – “Why?”
Hypothesis-Driven – How?
    disprove it
“MECE” means – a problem that has no overlaps and presented
in its entirety
              M    utually
                                           Mutually exclusive:
                                           Statements do not overlap
                                           in content
               E       xclusive
                         E        xhaustive
                                                    next highest level
SOURCE: McKinsey
FRAMING THE PROBLEM – ISSUE TREE EXAMPLE
                   Which
                  Product      How?      How?                 How?
                  Lines?
                From                    Decrease
                Widgets                 raw
                                        material
 How can                     Increase   costs
 Acme                        Revenues
 increase                                          Negotiate wage concessions
                From
 profits from
                Thrum-mats
 existing                               Decrease
                             Decrease              Negotiate higher productivity
 business                               labor
                             Expenses              quotas
 lines?                                 costs
                                                   Implement a labor-saving
                From
                                                   production process
                Grommets                Decrease
                                        overhead
                                        costs
Most times, we need to deep dive to get to the root cases of problem.
5-why‟s is a useful tool that underpins the issue tree framework in the
investigation of root causes….
 1                                                                                             ILLUSTRATIVE
 Why has the          2
 machine stopped?
                      Why did the over-         3
                      load fuse blow?
                                                Why wasn‟t there   4
                                                enough oil?
                                                                   Why doesn‟t the      5
                                                                   oil pump work
                                                                                        Why has the shaft
                                                                   properly?
                                                                                        worn?
 • The overload
     fuse has blown
                      • There was not
                          enough oil on         • The oil pump
                          the shaft                 doesn‟t pump
                                                    enough oil
                                                                   • Because the        • Because the oil
                                                                       shaft has worn       strainer is
                                                                                            blocked with
                                           Ask „Why?‟ until                                 metal swarf
                                          you get to the bottom
                                             of the problem
                                                                                                           15
Step 3: Prioritisation of issues
                                     2           3
    Client   1
   problem
                                     Structure   Prioritize
             Define problem
                                     problem     issues               4
                                                                      Plan
                     7                                                analyses
                                    Communication                     and
                     Develop
                     recomm                                           work
                     endations                   5
                                 6
                                 Synthesise      Conduct
                                 findings        Analyses
                                                 and work
                                                                                 16
                                                           Eliminated issues
Eliminate nonessential issues
                                • First step in constant, iterative
                                  refinement process
               Issue 1
                                  – Porpoise between
                                    hypotheses/theories and data
                                  – Use 80/20 thinking
               Issue 2
                                • „High grades‟ your effort on what is
   Problem                        most important
   statement
Be practical!
20
Polishing 80
80
                      Focusing on
                                        20
                      impact
                                      Time and Benefit for
                                      effort   problem
                                               solving
        Do back-of-the-
        envelope calculations                                      Take risks
                                                                                18
Benefits of the 80/20 rule for problem solving
 Benefits for
 problem-solving
                                                Efforts to structure the
 100%                                           problem
 80%
                                                          Requirements for analysing problems
                                                          • Focus on the main starting points of
                                                            the problem
                                                          • No gaps, no overlaps (MECE)
                        No cost                           • Logical hierarchy of levels
                        efficienc                         • Logical elements are consistent on
                            y                               individual levels
                                       High
              Ease of implementation
Low
Low High
Impact
                                                                    20
Step 4: Plan analyses and work
                                     2           3
    Client   1
   problem
                                     Structure   Prioritize
             Define problem
                                     problem     issues       4
                                                              Plan
                     7                                        analyses
                                    Communication             and
                     Develop
                     recomm                                   work
                     endations                   5
                                 6                                   Think effectiveness:
                                 Synthesise      Conduct             How can the
                                 findings        Analyses            resources be utilized
                                                 and work            optimally?
                                                                          xxxx   xxxxxx
                                                                         xxxxxx   xxxxxx
                                                                         xxxxxx   xxxxxx
                                                                         xxxxxx xxxxxxxx
                                                                         xxxxxx xxxxxxxx
                                                                                           21
Best practice work planning
                                                                                                                       Responsibility/
              Issue                     Hypothesis                Analysis                    Source                   timing              End product
Description   • An issue is typically   • The hypothesis is a • The analysis defines          • The source             • Responsibility    • The end
                an important               statement of the           the work necessary          identifies the         identifies the      products is a
                unresolved question,       likely resolution of       and sufficient to           likely location or     person who will     statement of
                phrased so that it         the issue; it              prove or disprove the       means of               obtain the data     the output from
                can be answered            includes the reason        hypothesis or resolve       obtaining data to      and undertake       the analysis
                “yes” or “no”              for answering yes          the issue                   undertake              the analysis.
                                           or no                                                  analysis               Also the
                                                                                                                         completion due
                                                                                                                         date
                  Should ABC            • Yes, Virgin Bank is     • Assessment of             • Analyst reports        • Financial         • April 3, Tunde
                  Bank invest             the best option for         organic options for         on Nigerian            forecast and
                  N200 M in               ABC Bank to                 growth – time, risk         banking industry       value of
                  acquiring               establish skills and        etc                     •   In-house               investment
                  Virgin                  assets quickly          •   Comparison of other         financial and
                  Bank?                   compared with both          local banks in the          banking
                                          organic growth and          market as well as           specialists
                                          other acquisition           acquisition options     •   M&A valuation
                                          options.                •   Cash flow, NPV              methodology
DESIGNING THE ANALYSIS – WORKPLAN EXAMPLE
Can we implement
the new production
process? Yes
                                     2           3
    Client   1
   problem
                                     Structure   Prioritize
             Define problem
                                     problem     issues               4
                                                                      Plan
                     7                                                analyses
                                    Communication                     and
                     Develop
                     recomm                                           work
                     endations                   5
                                 6
                                 Synthesise      Conduct
                                 findings        Analyses
                                                 and work
                                                                                 26
Step 6: Synthesis findings
                                           2                  3
    Client   1
   problem
                                           Structure          Prioritize
             Define problem
                                           problem            issues       4
                                                                           Plan
                     7                                                     analyses
                                          Communication                    and
                     Develop
                     recomm                                                work
                     endations                                5
                                    6
                                    Synthesise                Conduct
                                    findings                  Analyses
                                                              and work
                                                                                      27
6 – Synthesise findings and build argument……
                                          and/o
Use situation, complication,                      Pyramid structure
                                            r
resolution
                                                                        Main assertion
Sub-assertion Sub-assertion
                                                          Decisive
                       Decisive                          questions:
                       question:                          "What?"
                      "So what?"                          "Why?"
                                                          "How?"
                                             Governing
                                              thought
Particular insights,
reasons, steps,                                                       Chapters
benefits, etc.
Analysis
                                                                        Subchapters
results
Facts,
assump-
                                                                          Bullet points
tions,
etc.
                                            Coherence1
                                                                                      29
SAMPLE: Synthesis (Note difference between summary and synthesis)
                      Synthesis
                                               place to have fun
                                                                                           ?
                                                                                          question:
                                                                                         „So what?‟
                     of the facts
       Summary
      of the facts         It has many places                  It has many places
                           to go in the evening                to go during the day
                                                                                                 30
Synthesis exercise – what are the characteristics of a great
project manager?
   1 He is results-oriented
11 Coaching
                                                                         31
Solution to synthesis exercise
                                      One governing
                                    thought at the top
                                      (key message)
                                                            Good project
                                                         managers possess
         Overall                                           management,
      conclusions                                         professional and
      in complete                                           interpersonal
        sentence                                             capabilities
                                                         Their professional
             They possess a set                          qualifications are
                                                                                               They have polished
             of broad                                    outstanding
                                                                                               interpersonal skills
             management skills                           (specialised
                                                         expertise)
                                                 Suffi-
                                                              Famili-      Under-
                                    Good         cient
             Leader-                                          arity with   standing    Able to      Conflict
  Results-             Ability to   time         know-                                                              Coach-
             ship                                             the          of market   work well    manage-
  oriented             delegate     manage-      ledge of                                                           ing
             skills                                           organi-      require-    in a team    ment
                                    ment         subject
                                                              sation       ments
                                                 area
     1          4          7           9             3            6           8            2            5             11
                                                                                                               32
Step 7: Develop recommendations
                                          2              3
    Client   1
   problem
                                          Structure      Prioritize
             Define problem
                                          problem        issues       4
                                                                      Plan
                        7                                             analyses
                                         Communication                and
                        Develop
                        recomm                                        work
                        endations                        5
                                      6
                                      Synthesise         Conduct
                                      findings           Analyses
                                                         and work
                                                                                          33
• Conducting Analyses (Internal and external)
• Power of Excel
• Market analysis
• Financial Analysis and Accounting
                                                34
Excel is a powerful tool for conducting analyses…….
   • What do I want to           • Excel probably has some       • Allow yourself to try and
    accomplish with my            functionality that helps you    fail! It does not have to be
    analysis?                     do what you need to             right the first time
   • What type of calculations   • Use formulas and              • If you are having trouble,
    do I need to include in my    functions that you are          seek help
    analysis?                     familiar with
                                                                 • Make sure analysis is
   • How do I need to modify     • Seek information on how        done correctly
    the data so that I can use    to do things:
    it?                           – Use Excel‟s formula
                                    builder
                                  – Use Excel‟s help
                                    function (F1 key)
                                  – Use the internet to
                                    search for help
                                  – Ask a friend for tips
Pivot tables are one of Excel‟s most useful features
                                               • Alt + D + P
                                               • Alt + N + V + T
= A1 + B2 = SUM ( A1 : B2 )
                                                                            Separator for
                                                                            formula
                                                                            arguments (, in
                                                                            some Excel
                                                                            versions)
= IF ( A1 > 1 ; “Yes” ; B2 )
       Excel 2007 helps you understand the syntax of your formulas as you
       write them!
Other examples of advanced formulas
Function/
                What does it do?                    How do we use it?                                 Additional Comments
Functionality
                                                                                                     To count entries using mathematical
                                                                                                     operators, use "<32" in the <criteria>
                Counts the number of cells
                                                    COUNTIF(cell range you are looking in,criteria - parameter field, to count the number of
COUNTIF         within a range that meet the
                                                    value; cell reference - you are looking for)     values in the range <32
                given criteria
                                                                                                     Wildcard Usage: COUNTIF(C2:C40,"*te")
                                                                                                     will tell you how many words end with "te"
                Searches for a value in the first   VLOOKUP(cell reference of the value to be         Type of Match:
                column of a table array and         looked up,table array range where the first       0, False : Gives an exact match
VLOOKUP         returns a value in the same         column contains the value being looked            1, True : Gives an approximate or exact
                row from another column in the      up,position of the column data needs to be        match (be sure to sort your data in
                table array                         retrieved from,type of match)                     ascenfding order before trying this)
                Searches for a value in the first   VLOOKUP(cell reference of the value to be         Type of Match:
                row of a table array and returns    looked up,table array range where the first row   0, False : Gives an exact match
HLOOKUP         a value in the same column          contains the value being looked up,position of    1, True : Gives an approximate or exact
                from another row in the table       the row data needs to be retrieved from,type of   match (be sure to sort your data in
                array                               match)                                            ascenfding order before trying this)
Market analysis: Helps you understand how a market works, which
impacts the behavior and performance of market participants
S C P
                                             Feedback
      Structure                       Conduct                      Performance
Barriers to entry
Substitute products
Balance sheet
   Income statement
                        • Shows whether the company‟s operation has resulted in a
                          profit or loss as of a defined time period
                        • Can be thought of like a motion picture since it reports how
                          a company has performed during the period(s) presented
  Property, plant    Land, building, and             Reserves for          Money owed to employees
  and equipment      equipment owned by the          employee benefits     (usually pensions and
                     company; shown before and       plans                 health benefits)
                     after depreciation
                                                     Minority interested   Third party ownership in
  Deferred           Asset used to reduce future                           company subsidiary
  charges            income (usually tax)
  Goodwill           Intangible asset created upon   Stockholders‟         Interest in assets after all
                     an acquisition                  equity                liabilities are paid
Income statement
Income statement item definitions                                                          NOT EXHAUSTIVE
                         Income statement
                         Revenue
                         Expenses
                         Net income
                                                                               50
Basic accounting equation…..
(1) Costs   that can be directly attributed to the goods & services produced (i.e., cost of goods sold)
(2)   Earnings before interest and taxes
                                                                                                                                              52
The fundamental value of your company is set by growth, ROIC, and
cost of capital
    *Often called “Noplat” or “Nopat” (Net Operating Profit Less Adjusted Taxes)
Understanding what impacts the ROIC
                                                                  Cost of Goods Sold
                                                                  / Revenues
                                                                          +
                                        Operating margin =
                                        EBITA/revenues            SG&A / Revenues
                                        OR EBITA
                                                         1–                +
                                                                  Depreciation /
                   Pre-tax return                                 Revenues
                   on invested      X
                   capital
                                                                  Operating working
  Return on                                                       capital / Revenues
  invested    X
  capital                                                                 +
                                        Capital Turnover =        Property, plant and
                                        Revenues /                equipment /
              1–                        Invested Capital          Revenues
                   Cash tax rate
                                        Times
                                                             1/            +
                                                                  Other operating
                                                                  assets, net /
                                                                  Revenues
How to create value
                Increase                                        Improve return
          growth if returns are                                 on capital
            higher than cost                                     • Increase margin
               of capital                                        • Increase capital
                                                                   turnover
                           Growth
                                                                                      Sales
                                                                                      margin
                                                               ROIC
  Value                                                                           x
                                                           –                          Capital
                                                                                      turnover
                           Economic
                                                               WACC
                           Profit           x
                                                Invested
                                                Capital
                            Invest in                                     Reduce
                        businesses with                                WACC via capital
                       returns above cost                                structure
                            of capital
56