December 2018 No.

2018/1

The speed of urbanization around the world

I n recent decades, the world has been urbanizing rapidly. In

1950, only 30 per cent of the world’s population lived in
urban areas, a proportion that grew to 55 per cent by 2018.
The speed of urbanization in sub-Saharan Africa between
1950 and 2015, for example, represented by the blue line,
was higher than for the more developed regions between
The global urbanization rate masks important differences in 1850 and 1915, represented by the black line. In 1950, the
urbanization levels across geographic regions. Northern percentage urban in sub-Saharan Africa was about 11 per
America is the most urbanized region, with 82 per cent of its cent, equal to the urbanization level of the more developed
population residing in urban areas, whereas Asia is regions in 1850. Over the following 65 years, the percentage
approximately 50 per cent urban, and Africa remains mostly urban rose more rapidly in sub-Saharan Africa, reaching 39
rural with 43 per cent of its population living in urban areas in per cent in 2015, while the more developed regions reached
2018 (United Nations, 2018). a percentage urban of only 34 per cent in 1915. The pace
of urbanization in other less developed regions can be
Regional variations in levels of urbanization raises the
compared with that of the more developed regions in similar
question of whether some regions urbanize faster or slower.
terms (figure 1).
To address this question, the following analysis compares the
increase in the percentage urban in several less developed
regions between 1950 and 2015 with historical trends of Figure 1. Levels and trends of urbanization
urbanization in the more developed regions. Since pace and in selected regions
level of urbanization are related, the analysis across regions
90
compares the speed of urbanization at equal levels of the More developed regions
2015 2015
percentage urban. 80 Sub-Saharan Africa

Figure 1 presents changes in the percentage urban across 70 Northern Africa 2015
several regions or subregions of the world. The black line Eastern Asia 2015
60
refers to urbanization in the more developed regions between
Percentage urban

South-Central Asia
1800 and 2015 and serves as a base line for the comparison. 50 2015 2015
The black line shows an S-shaped profile, indicating that the South-Eastern Asia
40 2015 1950
rise in the percentage urban was relatively slow at low levels Western Asia
2015
of urbanization, before accelerating at medium levels and 30 Latin America and the 1950
then falling again at elevated levels of urbanization. Caribbean
1950
20 1950
For the sake of comparison, trends in urbanization for less 1950
10 1800 1950
developed regions start in each case with the percentage 1950
urban in 1950, which is plotted at the point along the black 0
line when the more developed regions experienced the Years (interval between tick marks is one decade)
same percentage of population living in urban areas. In cases
where the subsequent trajectory of a region lies above the
Data sources: 1800-1925: Taken from Grauman (1976: 32); 1930-1945:
black line, the pace of urbanization, starting from an equal Interpolated values; 1950-2015: United Nations (2018).
level of urbanization, was relatively more rapid in that region, Notes: Based on and updated from Dyson (2010: 148). The x-axis shows the
albeit at later date. Conversely, if the trajectory of a region number of years from the starting year of the trajectory of each region.
lies below the black line, the speed of urbanization was lower
in that region compared to the historical experience of the
more developed regions.
Urbanization has been faster in some less developed Causes of disparities of urbanization
regions compared to historical trends in the more devel- Changes in the level and pace of urbanization are determined
oped regions by several factors, including differences in natural population
Compared to the experience of the more developed regions, growth between rural and urban areas, rural-to-urban
the speed of urbanization has been higher in some less and international migration, and the expansion of urban
developed regions since 1950, except for Northern Africa and settlements through annexation and reclassification of rural
South-Central Asia. Urbanization has been relatively rapid settlements into cities. At very high levels, the urbanization
in sub-Saharan Africa, Eastern Asia, Western Asia and Latin rate reaches saturation and normally slows down. The
America and the Caribbean. Eastern Asia is the region that level and speed of urbanization, as well as the underlying
had experienced the most rapid urbanization, especially over demographic drivers are closely linked with economic
transformation as well as with spatial planning, including
the last 20 years. The share of the urban population in Eastern
housing, infrastructure and service delivery.
Asia more than tripled in 65 years, rising from 18 to 60 per
cent between 1950 and 2015, while a similar change in the
more developed regions required about 80 years, between Figure 2. Levels and trends
1875 and 1955. of urbanization in selected countries
Urbanization has slowed down in some geographic re-
90
gions More developed regions 2015
80 Ethiopia 2015
The speed of urbanization decreased in recent decades in
Egypt
Northern Africa, Western Asia and Latin America and the 70 China
Caribbean. For Northern Africa, in the decades immediately India
60
Percentage urban
after 1950, the trend in urbanization followed closely that of Indonesia 2015
2015
the more developed regions; the recent trend, however, is 50 Brazil
clearly distinct. The speed of urbanization in Northern Africa 2015
40
has fallen significantly over the last decades. Similarly, in
1950
recent decades urbanization in Western Asia and, to a lesser 30 1950 2015
degree, in Latin America and the Caribbean, has slowed
20 2015
down after a period of rapid increase in the decades after
1950. In South-Central Asia, the pace of urbanization has 1950
10 1800
19501950
been steady since 1950 and the region did not experience
0 1950
the phase of accelerated urbanization observed in the other Years (interval between tick marks is one decade)
regions (figure 1). Despite these distinctive trajectories, all
regions have continuously become more urban since 1950.
Regional diversity in urbanization conceals large varia- Data sources: 1800-1925: Taken from Grauman (1976: 32); 1930-1945: Interpolat-
ed values; 1950-2015: United Nations (2018).
tions across countries Notes: Based on and updated from Dyson (2010: 148). The x-axis shows the
number of years from the starting year of the trajectory of each region.
The speed of urbanization also varies substantially across
countries. Figure 2 illustrates the diversity in the pace of
urbanization for some populous countries located in the References
regions considered here. Starting at almost identical levels in Dyson, Tim (2010). Population and Development: The Demographic
1950, trajectories of urbanization have been very similar for Transition, London/New York: Zed Books.
China and Indonesia. In contrast, despite having comparable
levels in 1950, Brazil and Egypt followed very different Grauman, John V. (1976). Orders of magnitude of the world’s urban
trajectories thereafter, with Brazil experiencing rapid population in history, United Nations Population Bulletin, No. 8, pp. 16-
urbanization while the trend in Egypt has been flat since 33.
the 1970s, a reflection of the official definition of cities not
accounting for the recent urbanization of rural settlements. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
Population Division (2018). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018
Due to a slow process of reclassification of rural areas as urban, Revision, Online Edition. Available from https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/
urbanization in India has progressed more slowly compared Publications.
to other countries at similar levels of the percentage urban.
In contrast, starting from a very low level of urbanization in
1950, Ethiopia has undergone relatively rapid urbanization
compared both to the historical experience of the more
developed regions and to other developing countries at
similar levels of urbanization.

2 POPFACTS, No. 2018/1 December 2018