Sales Forecasting
A sales forecast is a prediction of what a firm’s sales will be during a specific future time period
Sales forecasts can be short-term, intermediate, or long-term in nature
Short-term : for a period of three months but not exceed six months
Medium-term: for a period more than six months but does not exceed two years
Ideally done in one year
Long-term: beyond five years, usually ten years, referred to as long range planning
Business managers and owners use sales forecasts frequently when making plans for their businesses.
Sales forecasts help them to determine:
How much to buy
What new items to offer
How many workers are needed
What prices to charge
Whether promotion is needed
Approaches to Forecasting
Before choosing a method for forecasting sales, businesses must decide which forecasting approach to
take. These approaches are referred to as the:
Top-down approach: In this approach, also known as the breakdown approach, the sales forecast is
prepared for the company as a whole. Then, the forecast is broken down into forecasts for specific
products, salespersons, territories, product lines, departments, etc.
Bottom-up approach: In this approach, also know as the build-up approach, the sales forecast is
prepared by starting with separate forecasts for specific products, salespersons, territories, etc. Then,
these individual forecasts are combined into a forecast for the entire company. For example, a shoe
company might gather forecasts for each line of shoes or for each salesperson’s territory and combine
the data to forecast sales for the whole company.
Categories of Forecasting Methods
Quantitative Forecasting
Quantitative methods of forecasting sales are based on the results of gathering and analyzing all kinds of
numerical market data.
Numerical data may come from internal sources such as:
Sales records
Past product/market research
Customer surveys that the company has on hand
Numerical data such as economic trends, population changes, consumer spending, and industry
forecasts come from external sources such as government reports, business publications, and trade
associations.
Qualitative Forecasting
Qualitative Techniques involves judgments and are subjective because they are based on the personal
assessment of sales manager, industry experts or consultants.
Qualitative, or judgmental, forecasting methods are based on expert opinion and personal experience.
The company prepares its sales forecasts by asking knowledgeable people such as experts in the field,
sales personnel, customers, and company executives.
These individuals base their predictions on what they have seen happen in the past as well as no current
observations of the economy or of the industry.
This method is especially common when sufficient historical data isn't available, i.e., for a new business
or a less-established market environment.
Five Methods:
Jury of Executive Opinion
This qualitative method gathers opinions from a group of company executives that meets together to
predict sales.
The executives’ predictions are averaged so that the forecast is a composite of their points of view.
Most widely used
Method of combining and averaging views of several executives regarding a specific decision or
forecast.
Leads to a quicker (and often more reliable) result without use of elaborate data manipulation and
statistical techniques.
Oldenst, simplest and most widely used method
Advantage:
Basedonreliable,insideopinion
Quickandeasytouse
Forecasting can be done quickly and easily.
Less Expensive than other method
Very popular
Disadvantage:
Results depend on executives’ skills
All predictions carry equal weight, which is a problem if some
executives’ predictions are not as relevant/accurate as others
Unspecific
Subjective
Difficult to breakdown the forecast into sub units
Delphi Technique
This method, also called the expert survey, is a variation of the jury of executive opinion.
It involves company executives and outside experts such as university professors, consultants, or
industry analysts.
It is based on the assumption that several experts can arrive at a better forecast than one.
In the Delphi method, predictions are made secretly and then averaged together. The results of the first
poll are sent to the experts, who are asked to respond with a second opinion. The process is repeated
until a very narrow, firm median is agreed upon.
coordinator getting forecasts separately from experts, summarizing the forecasts giving the summary
report to experts who are asked to make another prediction; the process is repeated till some
consensus is reached
Developed during late 1940’s by Rand Corporation
Advantages:
Can prevent social pressure and groupthink
Can prevent forceful individuals from dominating others
Can prevent time-consuming discussions or arguments
Can gather opinions from those who won’t speak out in groups
Objective forecast is accurate
Useful foe technology, new product and industry sales forecast
Both long and short term forecasting possible
Disadvantage
Takes a lot of time to complete multiple rounds of the process
Can be expensive
Difficulty getting a panel experts
Break-down of forecast into products or territories is not Possible
Sales force composite
This method gathers opinions from the sales force.
Each salesperson forecasts his/her sales for a future period.
The sales analyst then adds those forecasts together to get the sales force composite forecast for the
period.
Also known as “Grassroots Approach”
Individual salespersons forecast sales for their territories
Individual forecasts are combined & modified by the sales manager to form the company sales
forecast.
Best used when a highly trained & specialized sales force is used.
Estimates or forecasts are made by the sales force of the company
The individual sales estimates are then aggregated to arrive at company forecasts.
Each salesperson discusses his/her estimate with the concerned area sales manager before submitting it
The sales manager or senior manager then makes the final forecasts of the company
Advantages:
Accurate forecasts for individual products (The sales force works directly with customers and
understands the demand for certain products.)
Higher sales totals (When the sales force predicts its own sales, sales personnel are more motivated to
achieve those numbers.)
Inexpensive to use
Provides detailed information
(i) Forecasting is don by a salespeople who are closest to the market.
(ii) (ii)Detailed sales estimate broke down by customer, product and territory are possible
(iii) (iii) Involvement of salespeople.
Disadvantages:
Lacks a long-range view (The sales force may not have enough information about the company’s
future plans to accurately predict long- term sales.)
Sales force resentment due to having to take time away from selling to prepare sales forecasts
Forecasts that benefit sales force (A salesperson may forecast sales lower than s/he thinks can be
achieved to be sure the forecast is met.)
(i) Sales forecast are often pessimistic or optimistic,
(ii) (ii) If sales forecast are used to set sales quotas, which are linked to incentive schemes,
salespeople may deliberately under estimate the demand. (iii) Involvement of
salespeople
(iii) (iii) Many salespersons are not interested in sales forecasting, and prefer to spend time
in the field meeting sustomers.
Survey of buyer intentions
Process includes asking customers about their intentions to buy the company’s product and
servicesQuestionnaire may contain other relevant questions
This forecasting method gathers information about consumers’ plans to purchase products.
Analysts ask customers (via telephone, personal contact, or questionnaire)
what and how much they intend to purchase in the future
This information is gathered to create sales estimates for individual products.
Then, these estimates are combined to forecast overall sales for the company.
Also called “Market Research” or “Market Survey”
Advantages:
Reasonably accurate forecasts (The forecasts are based on information received from actual
users of the product.)
Easy to control costs (The way in which the surveys are administered is chosen by the company
and can be very inexpensive.)
Outside information is available (For example, The Quarterly Summary of Buying Intentions
publishes surveys of consumer buying intentions obtained by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.)
(i) Useful in forecasting sales for industrial products, consumer, durables, and new
products.
(ii) (ii) It also gives customer’ reasons for buying or not buying.
(iii) (iii) Relatively inexpensive and fast.
Disadvantage
(i) Difficulty getting a panel experts.
(ii) ii) Longer time for getting consensus.
(iii) (iii) Break-down of forecast into products or territories is not possible.
