SDD Poland Sept 07
SDD Poland Sept 07
Regional Market
                                         Overview
5 September, 2007
                                                                                   70/220/EEC
                                                                             90
                                                                             80
                                                                             70
                                                                                                74/290/EEC
                                                                             40
77/102/EEC
                                                                                                                                                                    94/12 Euro 2
                                                                                                                          78/665/EEC
                                                                             30
                                                                                                                                                                                   98/69 Euro 3
                                                                                                                                       83/351/EEC
                                                                                                                                                    91/441 Euro 1
                                                                             20
                                                                                                                                                                                                  98/69 Euro 4
                                                                             10
                                                                               0
                                                                        Sulfur
                                                                     Elimination
                                                                           &
                      Volatility
                                                                      Additional      Introduction
                      Controls           Initial
                                                        Olefin &     Composition            of
                          &             Benzene
   Lead                                                 Aromatic       Controls        Renewable
                     Oxygenate             &
  Removal                                               Content          ------           Fuels
                    Introduction         Sulfur
                                                         Limits       Advanced          (Biofuels)
                         ------        Reduction
                                                                      Emission
                   Cat. Converters
                                                                       Control
                                                                       systems
            Current Status
                 Japan                        W. Europe              Africa          L.America
                 North America                Middle East            Most Asia Pacific
1,200
                                                                                                                                                                              1.000
                                                                                                                                                                              900
                                                                                                                                                                              800
                                                                                                                                                                              700
                                                                                                                                                                                      PPM
                                                                                                                                                                              600
                                                                                                                                                                              500
                                                                                                                                                                              400
2003                                                                                                                                                                          300
                                                                                                                                                                              200
   2005
                                                                                                                                                                              100
                                                                                                                                                                              0
       2007
                                                US
Me
Br
Br
Ja
                                                                                                                                    Ind
                                                                                                       Ch
Ch
Ind
                                                                                                                                                                     Sa
               EU
Ru
Ru
US
Me
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pa
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                                                                                                        H
                                        s*
3.000
2.500
                                                                                                                                                                                         PPM
                                                                                                                                                                           2.000
1.500
2004 1.000
                                                                                                                                                                           500
   2006
                                                                                                                                                                           0
       2008
                      Ru
Ru
Me
Br
Br
Ja
                                                                                                                                           So
                EU
US
Me
Ch
Ch
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Sa
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                                                                                                                                                                          Ar
                                                                                                ***
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                                                                                          s
                                        s*
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                                                                   s*
                           * Also 500 ppm from 2003 and 350 ppm from 2006
                                                                         *
                                                                                                                                                                                 it ie
                         ** Northw estern frontier zone
                                                                                                                                                                                    s
                        *** 500 ppm is voluntary for autom otive diesel; Legislated sulfur lim it is 2,000 ppm
                       European
                      Commission
                       Parliament                        Environmental                              Sulfur for gasoline
                        Council                           Parameters         Biofuels Directive   and diesel fuel, aro for
                                                           01/01/2000           2003/30/EC         gasoline 01/01/2005
                                                                                              Environmental
                                                              Directive 2003/17                parameters
                                                              Review process                    01/01/2005
                 Auto Oil 1               Auto Oil 2                                          10ppm sulfur
1993 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 2009
              EN 228-
                 228-1993 (gasoline
                          (gasoline))     EN 228-
                                             228-1998       EN 228-
                                                               228-1999                  EN 228-
                                                                                            228-2004
              EN 590-
                 590-1993 (diesel fuel)   EN 590-
                                             590-1998       EN 590-
                                                               590-1999                  EN 590-
                                                                                            590-2004
                                                                           EN 14 274 (FQMS)
               C.E.N.                                                     EN 14 275 (sampling)
                                                                           EN 14 214 (FAME)
                *2005 introduction of 10ppm sulfur – Fuel must be geographically available in an appropriately balanced manner
          (1)      Regular petrol: Petrol blended with 0-5 vol% biofuel
          (2)      Low biofuel petrol: Petrol blended with 5-10 vol% biofuel
          (3)       Petrol with a minimum 3% bio content
               Diesel
                                         EN 590:         Dir 98/70      Dir. 98/70               Proposal MEP Dorette Corbey
                                                                                                          (July 2007)
               Entry into force         1993/1996          2000            2005                              2009
               Poly Aromatics,
                                           N/A              11.0           11.0                               6.0
               vol%, max
               Sulfur, ppm, max         2,000/500           350          50/10 **                             10
               Cetane number,
                                          46-49              51             51                                51
               min
                             o
               Density @ 15 C ,
                     3                  820 - 860           845            845                               845
               kg/m
               Distillation, T95
               o                           360              360            360                               360
                C, max
                                                                                        Full alignment of gas oils used for non-road
                                                                                        and inland waterways with on-road diesel by
                                                                                                       Dec. 31, 2009
*2005 introduction of 10ppm sulfur – Fuel must be geographically available in an appropriately balanced manner
Gasoline 68 51 37 38 19 19 23
* applies to EU15
Average Sulfur Content of Gasoline and Diesel Grades across the EU (%) in 2005
Source: AEA Technology Environment, EU Fuel Quality Monitoring – 2005 Summary Report
GASOLINE
DIESEL
Source: AEA Technology Environment, EU Fuel Quality Monitoring –2005 Summary Report
In d e x , 1 9 9 5 = 1 0 0
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
                    0
                           1990   1995         2000               2005              2010        2015         2020
 Broad messages:
       9 Greater links with CO2 impact of fuel & push towards carbon
         neutral fuels
       9 Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions: 2% per liter of energy
         of the emissions in 2010 for every 2 calendar years up to and
         including 2020.
       9 Air quality & CO2 focus
       9 Technology neutrality
       9 Review by end 2012 looking at new developments in biofuels &
         engines.
       9 Sustainability criteria for the production of biofuels
 Diesel:
       9 End date for full introduction of 10 ppm diesel fuel confirmed
       9 PAH reduction from 11wt% to 6wt%
       9 Full alignment of non road & inland waterways gas oils with on road
         by 31 December 2009.
 Gasoline:
       9 Two gasoline grades allowed: <5vol% biofuel blend (“petrol”) and
         >5%-10vol%max biofuel blend (“low biofuel petrol”)
       9 Low Biofuel Petrol grade oxygen increased to 3.7wt%
       9 RVP changed to 56 kPa-66kPa with 4 kPa waiver for gasoline with 3%
         min bio content (max 10% bio)
 Other oxygenates            Varied between 3   All increased by a comparable amount in       All increased by a
                             and 15 wt%         "high biofuel petrol" except methanol.        comparable amount in
                                                                                              "low biofuel petrol"
                                                                                              except methanol.
 Vapor Pressure (RVP),       60kPa              Where fuel contains ethanol, the maximum      56 -66 (arctic) kPa with 4
 Summer Period kPa                              permitted summer vapor pressure may           kPa waiver option when
                                                exceed 60kPa by the amount shown in the       3 vol% to 10 vol%
                                                table in annex VI                             biofuels are blended
  Sulfur content of         Currently 50 ppm.              10 ppm from Jan. 1, 2009.             10 ppm from Jan. 1, 2009.
  road transport diesel     Provisionally 10 ppm from
                            Jan. 1, 2009
  Non-road machinery        Sulfur content to be reduced   Sulfur content to be reduced to 10    Full alignment with on-
  gas-oil                   to 1,000 ppm max from Jan.     ppm from 31 Dec. 200                  road diesel as specified
                            1, 2008                                                              under Annex IV (not just
                                                                                                 sulfur) by Dec. 31, 2009
  Inland waterway gas-      Sulfur content to be reduced   Sulfur content to be reduced to 300   Full alignment with on-
  oil                       to 1,000 ppm max from Jan.     ppm max from Dec. 31, 2009            road diesel as specified
                            1, 2008                                                              under Annex IV (not just
                                                           Sulfur content to be reduced to 10    sulfur) by Dec. 31, 2009
                                                           ppm max from Dec. 31, 2011
  Poly Aromatic             11 wt%                         8 wt%                                 6 wt%
  Hydrocarbon (PAH)
  content of diesel
                                                                                Diesel fuels                                                                                        Total demand of Euro-3, 4 and 5 vehicles for diesel fuels along
                                 100%
                                                                                                                                                                                              the main ITC (average expected values)
                                                      90%                                                                                                      500.00
  % o f to ta l d i e s e l fu e l p ro d u c tio n
                                                                                                                                     D e m a n d fo r fu e l, th . to n s
                                                      70%                                                       350-1000ppm                                                              Euro V
                                                                                                                                                               350.00
                                                      60%                                                       <350ppm
                                                                                                                <50ppm                                         300.00
                                                      50%
                                                                                                                                                               250.00
                                                      40%
                                                                                                                                                               200.00
                                                      30%
                                                                                                                                                               150.00
                                                      20%
                                                                                                                                                               100.00
                                                      10%
                                                                                                                                                                            50.00
                                                      0%
                                                                                                                                                                             0.00
                                                        1990   1996   1997   1998   1999       2000   2001   2002   2003      2004
                                                                                                                                                                                      2002     2003   2004   2005   2006    2007   2008    2009       2010
                     no
                                                                          No
                information          final spec
                    28%                                              information           Final Specs      Final Specs
                                        32%
                                                                         33%                  38%           Draft Specs
                                                                                                            None
                                                                                                            No information
                    no spec       draft specs                                 None      Draft Specs
                     21%             19%                                      21%           8%
 * 47 countries from West Africa, Nigeria & Neighbors, West Central Africa, Southern
 Africa and Eastern Africa
                                   Source: Clean Air Initiative in Sub-Saharan African Cities, Working Paper 20, May 2005
                                   Flexibility includes:
                                     9 Credit trading program
                                       9 Small refiner & hardship extensions to 2010
                 Whatever fuel standards are chosen by any country they must relate
                  to the emission standards of the cars in the market.
                 It makes no sense to adopt EU vehicle emission standards with USA
                  spec fuels, or vice versa
                 Mixing up different vehicle emission standards with non-matching fuel
                  standards would lead to long term problems
                 Choose one complete, ‘matching’ set :
                                 Fuel + emission standards
                  based on the car population types together with desired air quality
                  levels.
   General concern: Biofuels policy does not tend to follow due process!. Links
    with air quality, vehicle engine, environment often only studied after the fact.
    Product quality issues often not addressed nor seen as significant by policy
    makers and some members of bio industry. Better communication and
    understanding is needed!
                           http://www.ifqcbiofuels.org
                                                                Sandrine Dixson-Declève
                                                         Executive Director, IFQC, Europe & Africa
                                                                                 sdixson@ifqc.org
                           http://www.hartwrfs.com
                                                                                   +32 2661 3080
http://www.hart-isee.org