Magnit Valuation
Magnit Valuation
Magnit Valuation
1 General inputs
Start date Date 01/01/13
Model periodicity Months 12
Model date Date 07/09/19
Balanced check 1
2 Macro inputs
Exchange rate (average for period) RUB/$ Exchange rate 31.91 38.60 61.32
Consumer price index (average for period) % 6.45% 11.36% 12.90%
Exchange rate (as EOY) RUB/$ 32.73 56.26 72.88
Consumer confident index (average for period) % -8.00 -11.00 -26.00
Real Disposal Income Growth 4.00% -0.70% 3.20%
Real GDP per Capita Growth 1.57% -1.04% -3.04%
Real Wage Growth -9.00%
3 Sales growth
Sales growth % 3.87% 14.48% 6.20%
Traffic % -1.28% 4.47% -0.96%
Ticket % 5.22% 9.58% 7.23%
LFL Sales, Convenience % 3.70% 13.85% 7.29%
Traffic % -1.57% 3.68% -0.79%
Ticket % 5.35% 9.81% 8.14%
LFL Sales, Hypermarkets % 4.61% 14.06% 1.52%
Traffic % 2.52% 5.63% -3.80%
Ticket % 2.04% 7.98% 5.53%
LFL Sales, Supermarkets % 12.79% 18.97% 0.63%
Traffic % 7.41% 8.87% -3.55%
Ticket % 5.01% 9.28% 4.33%
LFL Sales, Drogerie % 14.65% 40.79% 19.60%
Traffic % 10.54% 35.69% 5.62%
Ticket % 3.72% 3.76% 13.24%
4 Number of stores
4.1. North Caucasus units 379 397 451
Convenience units 320 330 353
Hypermarkets units 6 7 7
Supermarkets units 2 3 6
Drogerie units 51 57 85
4.2. South units 1,669 1,876 2,196
Convenience units 1,411 1,523 1,648
Hypermarkets units 50 55 62
Supermarkets units 12 28 42
Drogerie units 196 270 444
4.3. Centre (inc. Moscow) units 2,100 2,466 3,163
Convenience units 1,910 2,170 2,578
Hypermarkets units 27 32 37
Supermarkets units 12 19 30
Drogerie units 151 245 518
4.4. Volga units 2,483 3,018 3,580
Convenience units 2,239 2,614 2,877
Hypermarkets units 51 58 61
Supermarkets units 15 34 49
Drogerie units 178 312 593
4.5. North West (inc. SPB) units 671 870 1,166
Convenience units 602 757 936
Hypermarkets units 10 12 14
Supermarkets units 1 3 11
Drogerie units 58 98 205
4.6. Ural units 671 836 1,105
Convenience units 610 731 866
Hypermarkets units 15 22 30
Supermarkets units 3 7 9
Drogerie units 43 76 200
4.7. Siberia units 120 248 428
Convenience units 108 219 336
Hypermarkets units 2 4 8
Supermarkets units 1 3 8
Drogerie units 9 22 76
4.8. Total units 8,093 9,711 12,089
Convenience units 7,200 8,344 9,594
Hypermarkets units 161 190 219
Supermarkets units 46 97 155
Drogerie units 686 1,080 2,121
5 Selling space
New space per year (stores & distribution th sq. m. 850.19 1,206.79
8 Revenue
10 LFL
LFL Sales, ttl Stores 3.9% 14.5% 6.2%
Traffic % -1.28% 4.47% -0.96%
Ticket % 5.22% 9.58% 7.23%
11 Historical IS
1000
Sales mln. RUB Sales 579,695 763,527 950,613
Cost of sales mln. RUB (545,561) (683,824)
Gross profit mln. RUB 579,695 217,966 266,789
SG&A mln. RUB (152,433) (189,566)
Impairment of non-financial assets mln. RUB Other operating income / (expenses)
Other operating income mln. RUB Other operating income / (expe 2,905 3,984
Other operating expenses mln. RUB Other operating income / (expe (581) (849)
Operating profit / (loss) mln. RUB 579,695 67,857 80,358
Interest income (investment income) mln. RUB Interest income 374 227
Interest expense (financial expences) mln. RUB Interest expense (6,677) (11,956)
Other income mln. RUB Other income / expenses
Other expences mln. RUB Other income / expenses
Net foreign exchange gain and loss, net mln. RUB Other income / expenses (2,827) (2,649)
Profit / (loss) before income tax mln. RUB 579,695 58,726 65,980
Income tax expense mln. RUB Income tax expense (14,408) (12,207)
Profit / (loss) for the period mln. RUB 579,695 44,318 53,773
Dividents mln. RUB 26,647 36,858
Dividents (начисленные) mln. RUB 26,374 26,375
12 Historical BS
Property, plant and equipment mln. RUB Property, plant and 195,158 159,855 223,794
Investment property mln. RUB Other long-term assets 411 505
Land lease rights mln. RUB Intangible assets, net 2,109 2,425
Intangible assets mln. RUB Intangible assets, net 621 1,175
Goodwill mln. RUB Other long-term assets 938 1,151
Long-term financial assets mln. RUB Other long-term assets 67 114
Total non-current assets mln. RUB 195,158 164,001 229,163
Inventories mln. RUB Inventories, net 55,906 97,993
Trade and other receivables mln. RUB Receivables 558 836
Advances paid mln. RUB Other current assets 3,327 4,456
Taxes receivable mln. RUB Other current assets 48 81
Prepaid expenses mln. RUB Other current assets 166 270
Short-term assets mln. RUB Other current assets 326 208
Income tax receivable mln. RUB Other current assets 90 -
Cash and cash equivalents mln. RUB Cash and cash equivalents 12,139 7,060
Total current assets mln. RUB - 72,561 110,903
TOTAL ASSETS mln. RUB 195,158 236,562 340,065
13 Other
Income tax rate 20.0%
Min cash to sales ratio 0.5% 1.59% 0.74%
Total Capex historical 55,993 54,332
Old stores & distribution centers not used 9,112 11,234
New stores & distribution centers not used 34,823 49,429
Old trucks not used 7,654 7,582
New trucks not used 4,404 (13,913)
35 37 37
1 1 1
8 8 8
9 9 9
9 10 10
2 3 3
3 3 3
3 3 3
1 1 1
42,647 87,636 87,257
(12,051)
1 Macro assumption
Exchange rate RUB/$ 31.91 38.60 61.32 66.83
Consumer price index % 6% 11% 13% 5%
Exchange rate (as EOY, 29.12.2014) RUB/$ 72.88
Consumer confident index (average for p% -8.00 -11.00 -26.00 -23.00
Real Disposal Income Growth % 4% (1%) 3% (6%)
Real GDP per Capita Growth % 2% (1%) (3%) (0%)
Real Wage Growth % - - (9%) 1%
2 Revenue assumtion
1.1. Number of stores growth
Number of stores growth (for super short calculation only)
North Caucasus 4.7% 13.6% 10.2%
South 12.4% 17.1% 9.9%
Centre (inc. Moscow) 17.4% 28.3% 18.4%
Volga 21.5% 18.6% 15.0%
North West (inc. SPB) 29.7% 34.0% 19.1%
Ural 24.6% 32.2% 18.6%
Siberia 106.7% 72.6% 36.9%
4. Debt assumption
Mininmum cash
Interest rate for revolver
Interest rate for LT debt
Total Cash & ST Investments: ### - 12,139.28 7,059.65 16,559.27
Dividends & Interest received: - 374.25 227.00 106.25
Effective Interest Rate: 3.1% 3.2% 0.6%
6. End Sheet
Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
01/01/17 01/01/18 01/01/19 01/01/20 01/01/21 01/01/22 01/01/23 01/01/24 01/01/25
31/12/17 31/12/18 31/12/19 31/12/20 31/12/21 31/12/22 31/12/23 31/12/24 31/12/25
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Growth
- - - - - - - -
31.8% 31.79% 31.79% 31.79% 31.79% 31.79% 31.79% 31.79% 31.79%
Units Other Actual Actual Actual Actual
Magnit Year 2013 2014 2015 2016
Model date 30/12/99 Start 01/01/13 01/01/14 01/01/15 01/01/16
ths. RUB End 31/12/13 31/12/14 31/12/15 31/12/16
Error check OK № 1 2 3 4
Total Stores (Magnit strategy) units Check 8,093 9,711 12,089 14,059
Convenience units 7,200 8,344 9,594 10,521
Hypermarkets units 161 190 219 237
Supermarkets units 46 97 155 194
Drogerie units 686 1,080 2,121 3,107
Check: growth of total stores units 20.0% 24.5% 16.3%
5. Calc SALES
5.1. SALES
5.1.1. North Caucasus bn. RUB
Convenience bn. RUB
Hypermarkets mln. RUB
Supermarkets mln. RUB
Drogerie mln. RUB
5.1.2. South mln. RUB
Convenience mln. RUB
Hypermarkets mln. RUB
Supermarkets mln. RUB
Drogerie mln. RUB
5.1.3. Centre (inc. Moscow) mln. RUB
Convenience mln. RUB
Hypermarkets mln. RUB
Supermarkets mln. RUB
Drogerie mln. RUB
5.1.4. Volga mln. RUB
Convenience mln. RUB
Hypermarkets mln. RUB
Supermarkets mln. RUB
Drogerie mln. RUB
5.1.5. North West (inc. SPB) mln. RUB
Convenience mln. RUB
Hypermarkets mln. RUB
Supermarkets mln. RUB
Drogerie mln. RUB
5.1.6. Ural mln. RUB
Convenience mln. RUB
Hypermarkets mln. RUB
Supermarkets mln. RUB
Drogerie mln. RUB
5.1.7. Siberia mln. RUB
Convenience mln. RUB
Hypermarkets mln. RUB
Supermarkets mln. RUB
Drogerie mln. RUB
6. End Sheet
Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
01/01/17 01/01/18 01/01/19 01/01/20 01/01/21 01/01/22 01/01/23 01/01/24 01/01/25
31/12/17 31/12/18 31/12/19 31/12/20 31/12/21 31/12/22 31/12/23 31/12/24 31/12/25
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
42 48 54 60 66 70 73
32 35 39 42 46 48 49
3 4 4 5 5 5 6
2 2 2 2 2 3 3
5 7 9 11 13 14 15
212 228 248 267 285 295 305
153 163 175 187 198 204 210
25 26 28 30 32 33 34
9 10 11 11 12 12 13
25 29 34 39 43 46 49
376 421 474 525 574 607 627
317 349 387 423 457 479 493
15 16 18 20 21 22 23
8 9 10 10 11 12 12
36 47 60 73 85 94 99
358 385 418 449 478 495 510
290 308 332 354 375 386 397
25 26 28 30 32 33 34
10 10 11 12 12 13 13
34 40 47 53 59 63 67
129 144 162 180 196 208 214
108 119 132 145 156 164 168
6 7 8 8 9 10 10
3 3 4 4 4 5 5
11 15 19 23 26 29 31
140 158 179 198 217 231 238
107 118 131 143 155 162 167
13 14 16 17 19 20 20
4 4 5 5 6 6 6
16 21 27 33 39 43 45
74 87 103 120 138 148 154
61 70 81 93 105 111 114
4 5 6 7 7 8 8
2 3 3 4 4 5 5
7 9 13 16 21 24 27
1. Equity Schedule
1. NWC
2. PPE Schedule
Capex per old stores mln. RUB 5.2 2.1 2.1 2.1
Capex Per New Convenience mln. RUB - 4.0 3.1 2.4
Capex Per New Hypermarkets mln. RUB - 36.6 27.8 22.7
Capex Per New Drogerie mln. RUB - 14.0 10.5 8.6
Capex Per New Supermarket mln. RUB - 2.9 2.2 1.8
Total Capex for old stores mln. RUB 42,095 17,285 20,639 25,688
Capex For New Convenience mln. RUB - 4,561 3,870 2,229
Capex For New Hypermarkets mln. RUB - 1,062 806 408
Capex For New Drogerie mln. RUB - 714 606 336
Capex For New Supermarket mln. RUB - 1,131 2,266 1,792
Capex For New distribution centers mln. RUB
Capex for new trucks mln. RUB
Total Capex mln. RUB 42,095 24,753 28,187 30,453
check
4. End Sheet
Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
01/01/17 01/01/18 01/01/19 01/01/20 01/01/21 01/01/22 01/01/23 01/01/24 01/01/25
31/12/17 31/12/18 31/12/19 31/12/20 31/12/21 31/12/22 31/12/23 31/12/24 31/12/25
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
73,531 53,759 0
9,943 6,661
35 37 - - - - - - -
2 (37) - - - - - - -
37 - - - - - - - -
1,640
44,324
5,713 6,089 - 0 0 0 0 0 0
376 (6,089) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0)
6,089 - 0 0 0 0 0 0 -
165
1. Debt
Cash mln. RUB 26,748 6,811
Cash flow for debt repayment mln. RUB (3,865) (1,521)
Mininmum Cash mln. RUB (6,811) (7,551)
Cash available for debt repayment mln. RUB 16,072 (2,261)
2. End Sheet
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
- - - - (8,299)
2. End Sheet
Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
01/01/16 01/01/17 01/01/18 01/01/19 01/01/20 01/01/21 01/01/22 01/01/23 01/01/24 01/01/25
31/12/16 31/12/17 31/12/18 31/12/19 31/12/20 31/12/21 31/12/22 31/12/23 31/12/24 31/12/25
1,074,812 1,143,314 1,237,015 1,362,178 1,510,271 1,679,610 1,846,383 2,005,304 2,108,223 2,177,859
8.2% 10.1% 10.9% 11.2% 9.9% 8.6% 5.1% 3.3%
(753,429) (808,652) (906,357) (1,001,379) (1,113,924) (1,242,912) (1,366,323) (1,483,925) (1,560,085) (1,611,616)
(25,623) (30,020) (34,211) (35,304) (39,142) (43,531) (47,854) (51,972) (54,640) (60,231)
295,759 304,643 296,447 325,494 357,205 393,167 432,206 469,407 493,498 506,012
27.5% 26.6% 24.0% 23.9% 23.7% 23.4% 23.4% 23.4% 23.4% 23.2%
(192,390) (220,245) (214,319) (236,004) (261,662) (291,001) (319,895) (347,429) (365,261) (377,325)
3,147 7,024 7,803 6,983 7,742 8,610 9,465 10,280 10,808 13,737
106,516 91,422 89,931 96,473 103,285 110,777 121,776 132,257 139,045 142,425
9.9% 8.0% 7.3% 7.1% 6.8% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 6.5%
(25,688) (33,493) (36,517) (39,823) (42,025) (44,102) (46,092) (47,924) (49,533) (49,399)
80,828 57,928 53,413 56,650 61,259 66,674 75,684 84,333 89,513 93,026
7.5% 5.1% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 4.3%
(13,294) (12,979) (9,136) (11,417) (10,365) (9,934) (9,020) (7,504) (5,661) (5,935)
106 341 210 184 79 96 92 107 115 120
1,139 134 (1,415) 15 16 18 20 22 23 (2,492)
68,780 45,424 43,072 45,431 50,989 56,855 66,776 76,958 83,989 84,720
6.4% 4.0% 3.5% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.6% 3.8% 4.0% 3.9%
(14,371) (9,885) (9,207) (9,086) (10,198) (11,371) (13,355) (15,392) (16,798) (16,944)
54,409 35,539 33,865 36,345 40,791 45,484 53,421 61,567 67,192 67,776
5.1% 3.1% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 3.1%
(23,919) (17,297) (11,298) (10,766) (11,554) (12,968) (14,460) (16,983) (19,573) (21,361)
30,490 18,242 22,566 25,579 29,237 32,516 38,961 44,583 47,619 46,415
Units Other Actual Actual Forecast Forecast
Magnit Year 2017 2018 2019 2020
Model date 30/12/99 Start 01/01/17 01/01/18 01/01/19 01/01/20
ths. RUB End 31/12/17 31/12/18 31/12/19 31/12/20
Error check OK № 5 6 7 8
1. Cash flow pro forma
Net income mln. RUB 36,345 40,791
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
01/01/21 01/01/22 01/01/23 01/01/24 01/01/25
31/12/21 31/12/22 31/12/23 31/12/24 31/12/25
9 10 11 12 13
2. End Sheet
Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
01/01/17 01/01/18 01/01/19 01/01/20 01/01/21 01/01/22 01/01/23 01/01/24 01/01/25
31/12/17 31/12/18 31/12/19 31/12/20 31/12/21 31/12/22 31/12/23 31/12/24 31/12/25
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Upside/Downside -10%
Market valuation
Market capitalisation (20.08.2019) 362,507
Debt 164,573
Cash 26,748
EV 500,333
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
01/01/20 01/01/21 01/01/22 01/01/23 01/01/24 01/01/25
31/12/20 31/12/21 31/12/22 31/12/23 31/12/24 31/12/25
8 9 10 11 12 13
3.8%
1
E
B
I
T
D
3.3%
A
m
a
r
g
i
2.8%
n
2.3%
EV, RUB mln
WACC
456,237.79 11.1% 12.1% 13.1% 14.1% 15.1%
4.3%
3.8%
3.3%
2.8%
2.3%
Magnit Comparable Companies - Russian Based Retailers Companies
Market Enterprise
31.12.18 Share price 31.12.18
Company Name Capitalization, Value, mln.
close price, $ currency close price
mln. RUB RUB
Russia
Lenta 20,816 114,092 3.4 RUB 214.0
X5 Retail Group 327,750 511,146 27.5 RUB 1,725.0
O'Key 28,396 56,011 1.7 Euro 1.43
75th Percentile
Median
25th Percentile
Kopeyka
X5 Retail Group
12/6/2010 Trading House 1,648 1,648 1,473
N.V.
Ltd
75th Percentile
Median
25th Percentile
Magnit 1,362,178
Market
Enterprise 06.30.18 EBITDA
Company Name Country Capitalization,
Value, $mm close price, $ margin 2019E
$mm
Emergin martkets
2 CP ALL Thailand 21,402 8.3%
3 Shoprite Holdings South Africa 6,349 6.7%
4 Chadraui Mexico 1,862 5,5,%
7 Almacenes Exito Columbia 2,069 6.0%
9 President Chain Taiwan 10,037 7.9%
11 Clicks Group South Africa 3,143 8.3%
14 CIA Brasileira Brazil 6,508 5.7%
15 Puregold Price Club Philippines 2,671 8.1%
1 Massmart Holdings South Africa 1,317 3.7%
5 Lojas Americans Brazil 7,636 16.9%
6 Yonghui Superstores China 11,847 4.1%
8 Cencousud Chile 5,201 7.8%
10 Siam Marko Thailand 5,604 5.0%
12 Pick n Pay South Africa 2,238 3.9%
13 AVI South Africa 2,043 21.9%
16 SPAR Group South Africa 2,559 3.6%
75th Percentile
Median
25th Percentile
Magnit 7.1%
Revenue
Multiple
0.4x
0.9x
0.8x
1.1x
0.9x
0.83x
0.4x
1,264,680
1,124,818
574,703
DCF
456.2 456.2 - - -
492.0 Russia EV/EBITDA 2019F 472.7 19.3 - 40.7
410.4 Russia EV/Revenue 2019F 348.9 61.5 - 21.7
460.2 Russia EV/EBITDAR 2018 453.1 7.1 - 118.9
EV/Selling
EV/Reven EV/EBITDA EV/EBITD
EV space
ue 2019F 2019F Adj AR 2018
2018
75th Percentile 432.1 532.7 579.1 571.3
Russia Median 410.4 492.0 460.2 520.0
25th Percentile 348.9 472.7 453.1 508.1
75th Percentile 577.2 602.3 1,053.1
Emergin markets Median 435.0 441.4 917.0
25th Percentile 206.7 256.6 385.5
75th Percentile 1,264.7
Transactions Median 1,124.8
25th Percentile 574.7
75th Percentile 456.2
DCF Median 456.2
25th Percentile 456.2
EV/Selling
EV/Reven EV/EBITDA EV/EBITD
Share price space
ue 2019F 2019F Adj AR 2018
2018
75th Percentile 2,909.7 3,903.9 4,362.3 4,286.1
Russia Median 2,695.0 3,501.7 3,187.2 3,778.2
25th Percentile 2,087.1 3,311.0 3,116.6 3,661.3
75th Percentile 4,592.5
Emergin markets Median 3,001.6
25th Percentile 1,174.2
75th Percentile 11,140.9
Transactions Median 9,758.1
25th Percentile 4,319.3
75th Percentile 3,148.0
DCF Median 3,148.0
25th Percentile 3,148.0
DCF
DCF
0 1 400.0
75th Percentile
Median
25th Percentile
25th Percentile
10 000.0 12 000.0
Доля рынка в Доля рынка в Темп роста:
Регион Рост, п.п.
2018 г. 2023 г. предпосылка
North Caucasus 4% 10% 6% Middle
South 19% 20% 1% Low
Centre (inc. Moscow) Middle
Center 13% 16% 3%
Moscow 4% 10% 6%
Volga 12% 15% 3% Low
North West (inc. SPB) Middle
North West 13% 17% 4%
SPB 8% 13% 5%
Ural 10% 16% 6% Middle
Siberia 2% 14% 12% High
География