Options Probability Calculator
Input Current Market Conditions Here Step One
Current Call Put Calendar
Enter the current stock price and
Stock Implied Implied Days To number of calendar days to Exp
Price Volatility Volatility Expiration Implied Volatility numbers can
www.cboe.com.(see the "CBO
$11,847.55 15.30 20.53 1 worksheet to see how to find the
Probability of Hitting Higher Target Price Step Two
Target Winning Probability Distance
Stock Probability of Closing from Enter the target prices in the
either above or below the curre
Price of Trade Above Target Target
you want to check probability o
$12,050.00 98.28% 1.72% $202.45 fields will show either the pro
winning the trade, or the prob
stock price closing above/belo
price by Expiration. You will typ
to determine the probability o
Probability of Hitting Lower Target Price strike being attacked in a cre
Target Winning Probability Distance
Stock Probability of Closing from
Price of Trade Below Target Target
$11,650.00 94.12% 5.88% $197.55
Probability of Stock Expiring in Range Step Three
Winning Lower Upper
Percent Stock Stock This chart shows the probabilit
Probability Price Price finishing in a specific range b
day. For example, the "98%" ro
98% $11,588.95 $12,044.02
there is a 98% probability that
95% $11,639.98 $12,004.65 close between the "Lower Stoc
90% $11,685.51 $11,969.77 the "Upper Stock Price" by Ex
85% $11,716.33 $11,946.30
80% $11,740.88 $11,927.67
75% $11,761.99 $11,911.72
70% $11,780.98 $11,897.41
65% $11,798.60 $11,884.17
60% $11,815.34 $11,871.61
55% $11,831.56 $11,859.48
50% $11,847.55 $11,847.55
Any probability calculation is based upon certain assumptions which may or may not be or continue to be accurate. The m
employed is by its nature an attempt to simplify and may not always be consistent with complex market realities. The use
not be or continue to be a true predictor of future events.
or
Step One
Enter the current stock price and the current
number of calendar days to Expiration. The
Implied Volatility numbers can be found at
www.cboe.com.(see the "CBOE Website"
worksheet to see how to find these numbers)
Step Two
Enter the target prices in the yellow fields
either above or below the current price that
you want to check probability on. The green
fields will show either the probability of
winning the trade, or the probability of the
stock price closing above/below your target
price by Expiration. You will typically use this
to determine the probability of your sold
strike being attacked in a credit spread.
Step Three
This chart shows the probability of the stock
finishing in a specific range by Expiration
day. For example, the "98%" row shows that
there is a 98% probability that the stock will
close between the "Lower Stock Price" and
the "Upper Stock Price" by Expiration Day.
continue to be accurate. The mathematical formula
mplex market realities. The use of this tool may or may
ure events.
Current Implied Volatility numbers can be found at www.cboe.c
Tools - Volatility Optimizer - IV Index
Current Implied Volatility Numbers can be found at www.cboe.
Tools - Volatility Optimizer - IV Index
Current Implied Volatility Numbers can be found at www.cboe.
Tools - Volatility Optimizer - IV Index
at www.cboe.com, under: Trading
- IV Index
at www.cboe.com under: Trading
- IV Index
