AN INTRODUCTORY GUIDE TO ADAPTIVE

MANAGEMENT
for Project Leaders and Participants

January 1999

For more information contact:

Brian Nyberg
Forest Practices Branch,
B.C. Forest Service
P.O. Box 9513 Stn Prov Govt
Victoria, B.C.
Canada V8W 9C2
Phone: (250) 387-3144
E-mail: brian.nyberg@gems6.gov.bc.ca
Introductory guide to adaptive management

Preface

Forest ecosystems are complex and dynamic. As a result, our understanding of

ecosystems and our ability to predict how they will respond to management actions is limited.
Together with changing social values, these knowledge gaps lead to uncertainty over how best to
manage British Columbia's forests. Despite these uncertainties, forest managers must make
decisions and implement plans. Adaptive management is a way for forest managers to proceed
responsibly in the face of such uncertainty. It provides a sound alternative to either "charging
ahead blindly" or "being paralysed by indecision", both of which can foreclose management
options, and have social, economic and ecological impacts.
Adaptive management may be particularly valuable for testing, refining and improving the
Forest Practices Code. Although the Code is based on the best available information and
expertise, it requires forest managers and workers to implement many new, previously untested
strategies. Managers are faced with questions such as: How do I implement the guidelines in a
way that will meet management objectives? Which of several possible actions should I implement?
There are also uncertainties about whether specific guidelines provide adequate protection for
non-timber values, and whether others place unnecessarily tight constraints on timber harvesting.
Adaptive management offers a powerful way for addressing these questions.
Adaptive management is a formal, systematic, and rigorous approach to learning from the
outcomes of management actions, accommodating change and improving management. It
involves synthesizing existing knowledge, exploring alternative actions and making explicit
forecasts about their outcomes. Management actions and monitoring programs are carefully
designed to generate reliable feedback and clarify the reasons underlying outcomes. Actions and
objectives are then adjusted based on this feedback and improved understanding. In addition,
decisions, actions and outcomes are carefully documented and communicated to others, so that
knowledge gained through experience is passed on, rather than being lost when individuals move
or leave the organisation.
Learning from experience is always valuable. A rigorous, deliberate approach to learning
is appropriate whenever there is significant uncertainty about possible outcomes of alternative
actions and where delaying action is either unnecessary or would have unacceptable ecological,
economic or social impacts. To be effective, adaptive management requires a commitment to
learn and adjust, adequate resources (e.g., for monitoring and data analysis), and access to
necessary expertise. Be aware that complex, contentious problems will require more skill and
expertise than simple problems and may take longer to resolve.
Adaptive management was developed in the 1970's by C.S. Holling and co-workers at the
University of British Columbia and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Since
then, it has been applied to a range of specific issues, including rehabilitation of salmon stocks in

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Introductory guide to adaptive management

the Columbia River Basin, management of acid rain, and water management in the Florida
Everglades. Its application to forest management issues is now receiving increasing attention.
For example, ten "Adaptive Management Areas" are now operating in the U.S. Pacific
Northwest, the Clayoquot Sound Scientific Panel recommended an adaptive approach to
managing Clayoquot Sound, and Alberta-Pacific Forest Industries (AlPac) has adopted adaptive
management as principle for guiding operations in its large Forest Management Area in Alberta.
This introductory guide is intended to promote and assist with the application of adaptive
management to a range of forest management issues in BC.

Adaptive management is a systematic process for continually improving management policies and
practices by learning from the outcomes of operational programs. Its most effective form ”active”
adaptive management employs management programs that are designed to experimentally
compare selected policies or practices, by evaluating alternative hypotheses about the system
being managed.”

From Nyberg, J.B. 1998. Statistics and the practice of adaptive management. Pages 1-7 in
Statistical Methods for Adaptive Management Studies, V. Sit and B. Taylor, (editors). Land
Manage. Handbook 42, B.C. Ministry of Forests, Victoria, BC.

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Introductory guide to adaptive management

Introduction

The purpose of this document is to assist those who wish to apply adaptive management,
by providing a quick overview of the six main steps involved: 1) problem assessment, 2) design,
3) implementation, 4) monitoring, 5) evaluation, and 6) adjustment. The framework formed by
these six steps is intended to encourage a thoughtful, disciplined approach to management,
without constraining the creativity that is vital to dealing effectively with uncertainty and change.
The details of how the steps are applied and the level of rigour used depends on the problem and
on the imagination of participants. This guide is intended to provide direction, stimulate thought
and augment discussions with resource people; it is not a detailed "how-to" manual. Nor is it a
comprehensive discussion of adaptive management; those who want more background
information can refer to the key references cited at the end of this document.
The six main steps in adaptive management are shown in Figure 1. Step 1 (problem
assessment) is often done in one or more facilitated workshops. Participants define the scope of
the management problem, synthesize existing knowledge about the system, and explore the
potential outcomes of alternative management actions. Explicit forecasts are made about
outcomes, in order to assess which actions are most likely to meet management objectives.
During this exploration and forecasting process, key gaps in understanding of the system (i.e.,
those that limit the ability to predict outcomes) are identified. Step 2 (design) involves designing
a management plan and monitoring program that will provide reliable feedback about the
effectiveness of the chosen actions. Ideally, the plan should also be designed to yield information
that will fill the key gaps in understanding identified in Step 1. It is useful to evaluate one or
more proposed plans or designs, on the basis of costs, risks, informativeness and ability to meet
management objectives. In Step 3 (implementation), the plan is put into practice. In Step 4
(monitoring), indicators are monitored to determine how effective actions are in meeting
management objectives, and to test the hypothesised relationships that formed the basis for the
forecasts. Step 5 (evaluation) involves comparing the actual outcomes to forecasts and
interpreting the reasons underlying any differences. In Step 6 (adjustment), practices, objectives,
and the models used to make forecasts are adjusted to reflect new understanding. Understanding
gained in the each of these six steps may lead to reassessment of the problem, new questions, and
new options to try in a continual cycle of improvement.
Introductory guide to adaptive management

FRAMEWORK FOR ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT

Assess problem

Adjust
Design

Evaluate
Implement

Monitor

In reality, some of the steps outlined will overlap; some will have to be revisited; some
may be better done in more detail than others. All steps should be planned in advance, though it
may be necessary to modify them later. All six steps are essential to adaptive management:
omission of one or more will hamper the ability to learn from management actions. In addition,
documenting the key elements of each step, and communicating results are crucial to building a
"legacy of knowledge", especially for projects that extend over a long time.
This guide summarizes the key points to consider in each step and provides a checklist for
quick reference. We have also included suggestions for creating the conditions that will facilitate
long-term learning by individuals and their agencies, companies or communities. Some potential
barriers to adaptive management, and suggestions for overcoming them, are noted in Appendix 2.
Learning how to do adaptive management is itself an adaptive process. Please let us know
what works and what doesn't. We would appreciate feedback on the value of the outlined
framework, how it could be improved, and how you applied it to different problems.

What are we trying to accomplish through adaptive management?

find better ways of meeting goals

identify key gaps in understanding

improve understanding of ecosystem responses, thresholds and dynamics, in order to

adapt practices to fit changing social values and ecological conditions

gain reliable feedback about effectiveness of alternative policies/practices

encourage innovation and learning

pass on information and knowledge gained through experience

foster an organizational culture that emphasizes learning and responsiveness

in some cases, adaptive management may also help detect cumulative, long-term, large-
scale, and emergent effects of actions

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Introductory guide to adaptive management

1. ASSESS PROBLEM

system, and then use the model to explore

This step may be done in a workshop or series of
different management options. For simple
workshops that bring together people with a
problems, the model may be a simple diagram or
variety of perspectives, skills, and areas of
graph. For more complex problems (e.g., those
expertise. It is important to involve those who
where actions are projected over time and space),
will implement, monitor and be affected by plans,
a computer simulation model is valuable. In
as well as managers and scientists. For example,
some cases, it may be possible to modify an
a workshop could bring together: forest
existing model. The steps outlined below are
managers, policy advisors, forest workers,
applicable regardless of the type of model used.
scientists, First Nations, other forest users and
people from local community groups. Simple Although the key points below are presented in a
problems will typically involve fewer people than numbered sequence, keep in mind that problem
complex problems. assessment is an iterative process. Be willing to
return to earlier steps if necessary. For example,
For complex or contentious issues, it may be
valuable to bring in 1-2 outside facilitators who, the exercise of exploring the effects of
between them, speak the language of the relevant management alternatives may suggest new
disciplines, are skilled at managing people, bring objectives, different management alternatives, or
a systems perspective to issues, and are unbiased even that the problem should be addressed at a
different spatial or temporal scale.
about the outcome. Facilitators should be
involved early in the process and can help with The elements of an assessment workshop are
both workshop preparation and follow-up. described in more detail in Appendix 1.
In the workshop, participants first synthesize
existing knowledge by developing a model of the

1.1 Define scope of management problem.



Define spatial scale, temporal scale, and range of factors (i.e., values) to be considered.


Define sensitivity of resource values (e.g., consider risk of damage).



Consider aspects of the system that affect indicators or that are likely affected by
management actions.


Avoid defining problem in terms of preconceived solutions, since this would limit the
development of imaginative alternatives.


Consider long-term, cumulative and large-scale effects of management actions.

1.2 Define measurable management objectives and list potential management actions.

1.3 Identify key indicators for each objective.



Indicators are measurable attributes of system behaviour that allow you to weigh
management options and, eventually, assess outcomes.


Select indicators that are relevant to objectives and responsive to management actions.

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Introductory guide to adaptive management

Take into account the cost and practicality of measuring each indicator.


Select some indicators that respond in the short term, some in the medium term, and some in
the long term. Select indicators that respond at different spatial scales (e.g., site, landscape,
region).

1.4 Explore effects of alternative actions on indicators.



Develop a conceptual model of the system: outline linkages and describe the functional
relationships between actions and indicators (e.g., using box-and-arrow diagrams, graphs,
equations).


If warranted, modify an existing simulation model or build a new one to represent the
conceptual model. Simulation models are particularly valuable for projecting changes over
time and space and assessing the integrated consequences of a suite of actions.


Use the model (whether it is a simulation model or conceptual model) to explore the effects
of alternative actions.

1.5 Make explicit forecasts about response of indicators to alternative management actions.


Forecasts can be based on outputs from simulation models or, for simple problems, on the
graphs or diagrams used to describe the relationships between actions and indicators.

1.6 Identify and assess key gaps in understanding (key uncertainties).

 

hrough exploring alternatives and forecasting responses, key gaps in understanding of the
system will emerge. Express these key uncertainties as alternative hypotheses of system
function. Hypotheses can be expressed as simple graphs, or where appropriate simulation
models exist, as functional relationships or sets of model parameters.


Consider the relationship between action(s) and indicators over a range of conditions (i.e.,
how will an indicator respond to different degrees of a treatment?).


Assess the sensitivity of forecasts and management choices to alternative hypotheses. If

different hypotheses lead to different forecasts or management choices, then it is worthwhile
designing a management experiment that will discriminate between them1. (In modelling, this
step is commonly referred to as "sensitivity analysis" because it involves assessing how
sensitive model outputs are to different model assumptions or inputs).

Helpful tools & techniques



AEAM workshops (see Appendix 1)



conceptual models (e.g., box and arrow diagrams of potential impact pathways)


simulation models

1Understanding of complex and dynamic ecological systems will always be incomplete. However, not all gaps in
understanding necessarily need to be filled in order to decide between alternative management actions. For example,
where different assumptions lead to the same forecast, or to the same choice of management action, there is no need to
resolve the uncertainty about which assumption is "correct".

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Introductory guide to adaptive management

2. DESIGN MANAGEMENT PLAN

The purpose of this step is to design a 

there is a high level of certainty and

management plan and monitoring program that agreement about which hypothesis is true,
are informative and provide reliable feedback. and thus which action is best;
The most informative plans are those that are 

past actions or natural disturbances provide

deliberately designed as management reliable information about response over a
experiments, to discriminate between the range of conditions.
alternative hypotheses formulated in Step 1. Often, it is worthwhile evaluating several
Typically, this involves comparing a range of designs, one of which may be a "passive"
management actions. This approach is referred design. In some cases it may be valuable to test
to as "active adaptive management". The actions in a pilot project before testing them at a
alternative, referred to as "passive adaptive larger scale, in order to narrow the range of
management", is to assume that the most plausible actions, and refine methodologies. In
plausible hypothesis is true, and then implement situations or areas where the risk of damage is
the action or set of actions that the model high and irreversible, Steps 1 and 2 may lead to
forecasts will have the best outcome. the decision to postpone any management
Active adaptive management usually provides intervention until research and trials in less
feedback that is more reliable and less vulnerable areas provide more information.
ambiguous than passive adaptive management. At this stage it is also important to plan - at
However, passive adaptive management may be least in a preliminary way - how the data will be
the best (or only) alternative where: managed and analysed; how actions, objectives,


it is impossible or impractical to design a and models will be adjusted; and how

powerful experiment; information will be communicated.


the ecological costs of testing a range of

actions is unacceptably high;

2.1 Design management plan and monitoring program.



Consider a number of management options, for example: a passive approach, where one
action is implemented; an active approach, where several alternatives are compared; or
testing a range of options at a pilot scale, before testing one or more at a larger scale.


Ideally, a well-designed management experiment should include controls; replication of

treatments in space and time; allocation of treatments to control for bias and environmental
gradients, and to ensure statistical independence; and evaluation of confidence levels and
power. Researchers and statisticians can provide valuable assistance in designing
management experiments.


If necessary, consider how and when to relax some of the design principles; note the
consequences this will have for how the results are interpreted, and for the value of the
resulting information.

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Introductory guide to adaptive management

2.2 Evaluate management options/alternative designs, and choose one to implement.



Evaluate the proposed plan or plans, on the basis of ability to meet long term objectives,
ecological and economic costs, risk of negative outcomes, and ability to fill key gaps in
understanding. Decide which proposed plan to implement.

2.3 Design monitoring protocol.



Specify:

the type and amount of baseline (pretreatment) data required;

frequency, timing, and duration of monitoring;

indicators to be monitored at each interval;

appropriate spatial scales for monitoring different indicators;

who is responsible for undertaking different aspects of monitoring.

2.4 Plan data management and analysis.



Specify method(s) that will be used to analyse data.



Set up system for managing data over the long term (e.g., storage, analysis, access).


Agree on who will interpret data and who will have access to it.

2.5 State how management actions or objectives will be adjusted.



Identify who needs what information when in order to make timely changes.


Define the intensity and degree of response in an indicator that will trigger a change in
management actions or objectives.


djustments should reflect the trade-off between the costs of acting if preliminary results
later prove to be incorrect, and the costs of not acting if they later prove to be correct.

2.6 Set up system to communicate results and information.

Helpful tools & techniques



quantitative decision analysis (see Keeney, 1982; McAllister and Peterman, 1992)


project plan that documents uncertainties, design, and other parts of Steps 1 and 2

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Introductory guide to adaptive management

3. IMPLEMENT MANAGEMENT PLAN

3.1 Follow the plan!



In some circumstances, it may be necessary to deviate from the original plan: decide when
and what type of deviations are acceptable. Ensure that these circumstances are clear and
accepted by all partners. Otherwise, the "tyranny of small decisions" may eventually
invalidate the plan or lead to loss of confidence and support by partners.

3.2 Monitor implementation and document any deviations from plan.

4. MONITOR

Monitoring is often neglected in conventional models (i.e., hypotheses) of how the system
approaches to management, yet it is critical to functions, and take appropriate corrective
improvement. Monitoring allows you to assess action. Monitoring can also determine if actions
how actions actually affect indicators. This were implemented as planned, and may detect
information then allows you to evaluate the "surprising" events.
effectiveness of alternative actions, adjust

4.1 Monitor for:



implementation or compliance (did we do what we planned?);



effectiveness (did the plan meet objectives?);



validation of model parameters and relationships (which hypothesis is correct?);

4.2 Follow the monitoring protocol designed in Step 2.

Helpful tools and techniques



consider using volunteers for some types of monitoring



consider developing new, innovative and inexpensive monitoring techniques (e.g., videos or
photographs of sites)

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Introductory guide to adaptive management

5. EVALUATE

management experiment and monitoring

In this step, data are analysed and actual results
program. Better designs permit stronger
are compared to forecasts made in Step 1. The
inferences. Negative or unexpected outcomes
evaluation should explain why results occurred
can be as informative as positive, predicted
and include recommendations for future action.
outcomes.
Outcomes can be the result of the management
action, confounding factors not under your Results, whether expected or unexpected, must
control, or both. The strength of your be documented and communicated, so that
inferences (e.g., that the action lead to the knowledge and experience are passed on to
outcome) depends on the design of the others facing similar problems.

5.1 Compare actual outcomes to forecasts made in Step 1.

Evaluate the reasons underlying any differences between actual and forecasted outcomes.
Were the objectives met? If not, why not?

Evaluate to what degree tested hypotheses are supported by the results.

5.2 Document results and communicate them to others facing similar management issues.

6. ADJUST

Information must be used in order to have adjustments are rarely as simple as those
value. Information gained through the proposed initially. In addition, management
preceding five steps should be used to verify or experiments may yield some useful information
update the models used to make the initial that was not anticipated. Well-defined feedback
forecasts, and adjust management actions as loops are intended to ensure that information is
necessary. Objectives should be reviewed and used promptly and appropriately; they are not
adjusted to ensure that they remain consistent meant to be rigid rules that frustrate adaptation.
with overall goals and values. Often, new information will suggest new
In order to facilitate change, participants should management solutions, or new questions to
consider at the outset (i.e., in Step 2) how answer...leading to another cycle of assessment,
actions might be adjusted. However, results design, implementation, monitoring and
are rarely as clear as anticipated, and thus evaluation.

6.1 Identify where uncertainties have been reduced, and where they remain unresolved.

6.2 Adjust the model used to forecast outcomes (Step 1) so that it reflects the hypothesis
supported by results.

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Introductory guide to adaptive management

6.3 Adjust subsequent management decisions and policies, and reevaluate objectives, as
necessary.


In deciding what adjustments to make, consider the reasons underlying differences

between expected and actual outcomes (Step 5).


Future actions should be based on which hypothesis of system function was supported by
the results.

6.4 Make new predictions, design new management experiments, test new options.


i.e., return to step 1 or 2



In future management experiments, address unresolved or newly-identified uncertainties

that affect predicted outcomes and decisions about which actions to implement.

Documenting plans and communicating results

Documenting plans and communicating results are crucial elements of adaptive management. The
impact of many management activities can be assessed reliably only over the long term. All
aspects of adaptive management, including funding, project co-ordination, data handling, and
dissemination of information, must be designed to accommodate the potentially long time frame.

1. Document all major steps in the process including:



functional relationships, models, key uncertainties;



reasoning behind the choice of management plan, monitoring program and expected
outcomes;


methods, sites, treatments;



participants and their roles and responsibilities.

2. Ensure that such information is accessible over the long term, and in the event of turnover
in participants.

3. Define who is responsible for co-ordinating and for carrying out each task.

4. Set time lines for carrying out each task or part of project.

5. Distribute interim and final results.



A number of avenues can be used to communicate results, including

written progress and final reports, presentations, seminars, field trips, informal discussions,
posters.


In communicating the results, specify which uncertainties have been reduced, and how this
affects understanding of the system and future management actions.

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Introductory guide to adaptive management

Creating success: what you can do to facilitate learning

Project leaders play a crucial leadership role in encouraging the conditions that facilitate adaptive
management. In particular, institutional environment and individual attitudes are as critical to
effective adaptive management and learning as the actual steps followed. There is an extensive
body of literature that discusses "organizational learning"; we encourage you to refer to some of
the references listed on page 18. Below are some specific recommendations for creating success
in adaptive management.

1. Create an atmosphere and promote an attitude that is conducive to long-term learning -

where:


mistakes are recognized as the price of innovation and are treated as opportunities to
learn;


the desire (incentive) to improve is greater than the fear of failure;



there is more patience and less demand for quick fixes;



people are explicitly rewarded for innovation and learning (i.e., in performance
evaluations).

2. Ensure that all participants have a clear, consistent understanding of adaptive

management.

3. Build contingency plans into project to deal with:



potentially negative outcomes of some treatments;



unanticipated and uncontrollable events that compromise design (e.g., wildfires that
destroy replicates);


interruptions in funding;


external pressures to alter projects.

4. Anticipate potential barriers and develop strategies for overcoming or minimizing them.


See Appendix 2.

A Final Comment
In using this introductory guide, keep in mind that adaptive management is like painting: knowing
the steps is important, but it isn't enough to create great art. Potential project leaders and
participants are encouraged to use other resources, including those offered by the BC Forest
Service Adaptive Forest Management initiative. We must learn how to do adaptive management
by doing it.

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Introductory guide to adaptive management

APPENDIX 1

Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management (AEAM) Workshops

AEAM is a process where participants with a diversity of skills and expertise are brought together in a
workshop or series of workshops to assess a management problem and explore management options.
Usually, participants work with modellers to develop a computer simulation model that they then use to
explore various "what if..?" scenarios and evaluate potential outcomes of different management actions.
In addition, significant benefits are derived from the process of building the model. The workshops are
intended to encourage debate about system response to management actions and to stimulate a creative
search for new solutions, rather than build consensus around a single solution. In some cases, the scope
of the problem and the options explored will be bounded by prior decisions about land-use (for example,
those defined in Land and Resource Management Plans, or other regional or local land-use plans).
The AEAM workshops are valuable for:


building a common understanding of the problem;



synthesizing existing knowledge;



highlighting key uncertainties and clarifying assumptions;



stimulating creativity and generating new management options.

The model allows participants to:


project potential effects over time and space;



forecast potential effects of cumulative management actions; and it



provides a consistent basis for participants to discuss and evaluate management options.
AEAM workshops typically involve the steps outlined below, although they can be tailored to suit the
management problem and available budget. In some cases these steps will be done in a single
workshop, over one or several days; in other cases, they may be done in a series of workshops, with
some participants working on particular aspects of the problem in between. Work is done in both
plenary sessions and sub-groups.
While model-building is valuable for focusing discussion, workshops where time or budget constraints
preclude computer modelling can still be useful. The development of conceptual models is itself a very
worthwhile exercise. To maximize the value of the workshop, objectives and expectations must be
clearly understood by all participants, including the modellers and facilitators.
AEAM is an iterative process - later steps may lead to reevaluation and reiteration of earlier steps. For
example, it may be useful to model the problem at several different spatial scales. Similarly, exploring
the effects of management options may suggest alterations to model parameters or relationships, or new
options to try.
Steps that were outlined in section 1 (Assessing Problem) are noted.

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Introductory guide to adaptive management

Prior to the first workshop, typically in a meeting between the facilitator(s) and the project
leader(s):
1. Identify key participants.
The first workshop may involve 20-30 people, including:


modellers/facilitators


forest managers and planners



"knowledge experts" from a range of disciplines (e.g., hydrologists, wildlife biologists, fisheries
biologists, social scientists, etc.)


policy-makers


forest workers


people with local knowledge



other stakeholders
Participants can be drawn from government agencies, industry, community groups, environmental
organizations, First Nations or other groups with expertise to contribute or who will be affected by
management decisions. The mix and quality of participants is critical to workshop success. Participants
should not only have relevant expertise, but should also be creative, innovative thinkers.

2. Define the initial scope of the problem and key problem features.
(e.g., spatial and temporal scale, range of factors to consider, key indicators)


This can help keep the workshop on track.



For some problems it also may be useful to summarize existing, accepted knowledge about the
system. This can "jump start" the process and minimize time spent on issues about which their is
already general agreement.


It is critical that participants not feel constrained by this initial problem scoping;
leaders/facilitators must be prepared to alter or abandon any boundaries or framework
developed prior to the workshop.


In some cases, the scope of the problem will be influenced by land-use decisions made by other
bodies (e.g., LRMPs). Decisions made by AEAM participants should not conflict with or
supersede those made by other decision-making bodies.

During the workshop(s):

In the group as a whole:
3. Define scope of problem (see section 1).


The participants in the workshop should have the opportunity to revise the scope defined by the
facilitator(s) and project leader(s) prior to the workshop, to ensure that issues of concern are
addressed. This is the first step in building a common understanding of the problem.

4. Define measurable management objectives (see section 1)

5. Identify key indicators for each objective (see section 1).

6. Identify possible management actions (see section 1).

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Introductory guide to adaptive management

Actions and indicators are then grouped into logical sub-groups (e.g., based on theme or scale).
Participants are assigned to these sub-groups based the knowledge and skills they can contribute. In
each sub-group:
7. Draw impact hypothesis diagrams (for given group of actions and indicators).


These "box and arrow" diagrams outline the linkages between management actions and
indicators and represent a synthesis of existing knowledge on each subsystem.


Impact hypothesis diagrams are not intended to show detailed links between all components of
the system - only those that affect management outcomes/decisions.

8. Identify and assess key information gaps (see section 1).



Evaluate links in impact hypothesis diagram, considering: quality of existing information, level
of influence on outcome, feasibility of filling information gap. One suggested system for
assessing alternative hypotheses is:
1. unlikely, not worth testing
2. already tested
3. possible, too difficult to test
4. uncertain, research needed
5. likely, worth testing

Work in sub-groups alternates with discussion in plenary sessions. This ensures that the sub-groups
understand and have a chance to comment on each other's assumptions, and ensures that the diagrams
form a coherent whole. "Outputs" of one diagram will be "inputs" to another.

9. Modify an existing simulation model or develop a new one.



In some cases there may be an existing model that captures the relevant pathways and
conceptual model expressed in step 7 above. If so, this model can be used to explore alternative
actions. If a suitable model is not available, develop a new one based on the impact hypothesis
diagrams.


While a crude model can be developed in the workshop, typically it will have to be refined
before it can be used for exploring scenarios and forecasting outcomes.

10. Test and validate the model; do sensitivity analysis on model parameters.


Test model to determine how sensitive outcomes are to variations in model parameters.


Sensitivity analysis helps narrow in on those areas of uncertainty that most affect management
outcomes.

11. Explore alternative scenarios/management options.



Develop a range of plausible management options.



Use the model to explore the effects of these options on indicators.



This "gaming" with the model is usually done in the group as a whole.

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Introductory guide to adaptive management

12. Make explicit predictions about response of indicators (see section 1).

A reminder: AEAM is an iterative process- not sequential as summarized above. The model will
be continuously refined and tested, new options developed and explored, and new predictions
made.

The AEAM process should provide participants with:



a common understanding of the problem;



a list of key indicators;



documented assumptions about how the system functions, how variables respond (i.e., the
model);


predictions about the effects of alternative management actions;



a list of key uncertainties in model parameters and relationships (i.e., those that have most
influence on outcomes);


a list of plausible alternative hypotheses that should be tested, in order to improve understanding
of system behaviour and its representation in the model, and thus improve management
decisions;


an idea of what "probing actions" can be taken to test these alternative hypotheses.

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 Introductory guide to adaptive management

APPENDIX 2

What are likely to be the main barriers to adaptive management?

An important component of any adaptive management plan will be to anticipate potential problems
and devise strategies for avoiding, minimizing or overcoming them. In the Table below we list some
potential barriers, the steps they will likely affect, and some potential solutions. To some extent the
barriers that arise will depend on the characteristics (e.g., scale, complexity) of the management issue.
It is also important to note that some of these barrier are not unique to adaptive management.

Potential Barriers Steps Comments/Potential solutions

affected
all identify designs and monitoring schemes that offer best
1. additional costs


trade-off between cost and effectiveness (i.e., using

(e.g., for model development, layout, decision analysis)
monitoring)  compare potential cost: benefit of adaptive management to
that of conventional management (i.e., assess the potential
long-term cost of implementing "wrong" or ineffective
practices)
 consider using volunteers for some aspects of monitoring
and layout
 develop cheaper measurement techniques that still provide
reliable information
 identify cost-sharing partnerships
2, 5 use alternative methods of statistical analysis (e.g.,
2. designing powerful experiments


Bayesian statistics)
(potential constraints on design include: long 
draw on other sources of knowledge to help interpret
response times, large spatial scales, high results (e.g., retrospective studies, descriptive studies,
variability between sites, high variability in process research, local knowledge)
measurements) 
designs that are less than ideal may still provide useful
information - consider consequences of relaxing design
rules and accepting lower levels of precision, confidence in
results

lack of powerful design does not preclude adaptive
management - it just makes interpretation of results more
difficult
2 use quantitative methods of risk analysis to assess and
3. reluctance to "experiment" with high


compare alternative designs/options

value, threatened ecosystems
 passive approaches may be less risky than active
approaches in some circumstances
 test risky actions in small, pilot studies or in "less
valuable" areas before applying them more widely
 design contingency plans (e.g., halt or adjust treatments
when indicators reach predetermined "thresholds of
acceptable change")
 monitor some indicators that respond quickly, or that are
particularly sensitive to change (e.g., behavioural changes
may precede population changes)
 recognize that the risk of managing in continued
ignorance is also high

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 Introductory guide to adaptive management

all, 

establish realistic expectations (so the project isn't

4. maintaining continuity of funding,
especially prematurely judged to have "failed")
support, staff over the long term
4,5 

document assumptions, objectives, treatments, sites etc.,

(despite changes in political and and ensure that information is accessible (e.g., sites,
economic climates) treatments, status could be mapped on GIS map layers and
stored electronically and as hard copy maps)


document and communicate interim results and

knowledge gains


write formal plan that: states long-term schedule of

treatments, monitoring, evaluation; assigns responsibility
for tasks to specific individuals or positions


generate local support and sense of ownership in project

beyond government agencies (e.g., by incorporating into
regional plans, through public education and involvement)


have outgoing staff train incoming staff (overlap

"employment windows")


if possible, design plans to weather interruptions in

funding (so that you can still get some information if
funding is reduced)


ensure funding is reserved at the time of initial harvest,

perhaps as a bond posted as a condition of harvesting
4,5 

develop explicit, written plan for handling data (e.g., who

5. logistics of collecting, storing,
is responsible for tasks, storage format, access)
analyzing data so that it is accessible 

a well-designed, focused monitoring program will

over the long term
minimize the amount of data that is generated


integrate data from adaptive management with other

standard databases
1, 2, 5 

for some issues, the FPC provides enough flexibility to test

6. regulatory and institutional
a range of treatments
inflexibility 

the FPC states minimum standards-and does not prevent

(real or perceived) testing of practices that exceed them


analysis of past management actions will often provide

information on response at one end of a range
5 

get commitment from all participants, at outset

7. "institutional inertia" 

ensure good, ongoing communication between those who

(reluctance to change practices, objectives make decisions and those who implement and evaluate
or opinions; barriers to quick response; them
prior commitment to certain course of 

delegate decision-making authority to those as close to the

action) ground as possible (but with checks and balances)


get agreement at outset on how potential results will

change objectives, or practices


sense of ownership in project will enhance willingness to

change on basis of results
3 

involve range of stakeholders, agencies from the outset

8. pressure to alter plans or poor 

involve operations staff or contractors responsible for

understanding of how to implement
implementing plans in assessment and design phases
plans 

anticipate potential pressures that may arise to alter plans

and agree on response; will it compromise the project?
all 

define “learning how to manage better” as one

9. fear of admitting uncertainty, making
management objective
mistakes, trying new solutions 

build public trust through education, public involvement in

process


reward learning and innovation in performance evaluations

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 Introductory guide to adaptive management

all, 

define adaptive management clearly and consistently at the

10. unclear, inconsistent definition of
especially outset
adaptive management and how it
1 

reinforce and repeat the definition throughout the process

should carried out 

correct misinterpretations when they arise

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Introductory guide to adaptive management

APPENDIX 3
Definitions
Indicators: - measures of system behaviour in terms of meaningful and perceptible attributes
- what do we really need to know in order to make a decision?
- what do we need to measure to determine if management objectives have been met?
- allow us to assess alternatives, weigh options

Actions: - activities to be considered in assessment of alternatives

Hypotheses: - predictions about how one or more indicators will respond to management actions
- alternative explanations for the mechanisms that underlie observed responses
- the most useful hypotheses state the degree of response, or describe the response over
a range of conditions; hypotheses that state only whether an indicator will or won’t
respond to a treatment are less useful for deciding between alternative courses of action,
or making informed trade-offs

Passive adaptive management:

- managers select the "best" management option, assuming that the model on which the
predictions are based is correct.

Active adaptive management:

- managers design practices so as to discriminate between alternative models, and thus
reveal the "best" management action. This sometimes involves testing practices that
differ from "normal", in order to determine how indicators will respond over a range of
conditions.
Both passive and active adaptive management require careful implementation,
monitoring, evaluation of results, and adjustment of objectives and practices. Active
adaptive management usually allows more reliable interpretation of results, and leads to
more rapid learning.

Key References on Adaptive Management

Holling, C.S., editor. 1978. Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management. John Wiley and
Sons, London.
Keeney, R.L. 1982. Decision analysis: an overview. Operations Research 30:803-838.
Lee, K.N. 1993. Compass and Gyroscope: integrating science and politics for the environment. Island
Press, Washington, D.C. 243 pp.
Raiffa, H. 1968. Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Uncertainty. Addison-
Wesley, Don Mills, Ont. 875 pp.
Sit, V. and B. Taylor, editors. 1998. Statistical methods for adaptive management studies. Land
Management Handbook 42. Research Branch, British Columbia Ministry of Forests, Victoria. 148
p.
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Introductory guide to adaptive management

Taylor, B, L. Kremsater, and R. Ellis. 1997. Adaptive Management of Forests in British Columbia.
British Columbia Ministry of Forests, Forest Practices Branch, Victoria. 93 p. (Note that in developing
this introductory guide, the elements of adaptive management (outlined in chapter 5) have been updated and
revised.)
Walters, C.J. 1986. Adaptive Management of Renewable Resources. McGraw-Hill, New York.
374pp.

References on Organisational Learning

Argyris, C. and D.Schon. 1978. Organizational Learning: A Theory of Action Perspective. Addison-
Wesley, Reading, Mass.
Argyris, C. 1993. Actionable Knowledge: Especially for Changing the Status Quo. Jossey-Bass. San
Francisco.
Kline, P.and B. Saunders. 1996. 10 Steps to a Learning Organization. Pfeiffer and Co., Prentice Hall
Canada.
Kofman, F. and P.M. Senge. Communities of commitment: the heart of learning organizations.
Organizational Dynamics 22: 5-23.
Senge, P.M. The Fifth Discipline - the Art and Science of the Learning Organization. Doubleday

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Introductory guide to adaptive management

QUICK REFERENCE:

Steps in adaptive management

1. Assess Problem


Define scope of management problem.



Define measurable management objectives.



Identify key indicators for each objective.



Explore effects of alternative actions on indicators



Make explicit forecasts about responses of indicators to management actions



Identify and assess key gaps in understanding.

2. Design (management plan)



Design management plan that will provide reliable feedback and fill gaps in understanding.


Evaluate management options/alternative designs, and choose one to implement.



Design monitoring protocol.



Plan data management and analysis.



State how management actions or objectives will be adjusted.



Set up system to communicate results and information.

3. Implement


Follow the plan!



Monitor implementation and document any deviations from plan.

4. Monitor


Monitor for: implementation, effectiveness, validation and surprises.



Follow the monitoring protocol designed in Step 2.

5. Evaluate/ Adjust


Compare actual outcomes to forecasts made in Step 1.



Document results and communicate them to others facing similar management issues.

6. Adjust


Identify where uncertainties have been reduces and where they remain unresolved.


Adjust the model used to forecast outcomes, so that it reflects the hypothesis supported by
results.


Adjust management actions and reevaluate objectives as necessary.



Make new predictions, design new management experiments, test new options...repeat cycle.

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Introductory guide to adaptive management

Document plans and communicate results



Document all major steps in the process.



Ensure that information is accessible over the long term.



Define who is responsible for co-ordinating and for carrying out each task.


Set time lines for carrying out each task or part of project.


Distribute interim an final results.

Create Success


Create an atmosphere and promote an attitude that is conducive to long-term learning.



Ensure that all participants have a clear, consistent understanding of adaptive management.


Build contingency plans into project.



Anticipate potential barriers and develop strategies for overcoming or minimizing them.

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