Economy Economic Indicators Indonesia GDP growth is projected to reach the lower end of 2014 2015 2016F the forecasted 4.9% - 5.3% range during the first quarter of GDP Growth 4.8% 4.8% 4.9 – 5.3% 2016. The stock market continues to show improvement with an Inflation Rate 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% increase of 6.3% during the first quarter, closing at 4,885 on Central Bank Rate 7.5% 7.5% 6.75% March 18th 2016. On the currency side, the Rupiah experienced further appreciation of 4.0% to 13,098 per US$ 1.00, whilst Year- to-date inflation reached 4.2%, within the projected range of 3% Market Indicators to 5% by Bank Indonesia. 12-Month H1 15 H2 15 Market Overview Forecast Overall Sales Rate 93.0% 93.4% The new LTV regulation has been implemented since the Avg. Monthly Take-Up Unit beginning of the second semester of 2015, and it was expected 28 22 per estate (units) to boost the purchases of property. However, since some of the Avg. Monthly Take-Up developers still not apply this regulation, during the review Value per estate (IDR in 31.4 31.4 Billion) period, the market hasn’t shown any significant impact. Slowing of overall demand growth was observed during the semester, Supply-Demand Growth from 1.7% in H1 2015 to 1.3% in H2. The average housing units 2H TRAILING AVERAGE transacted reached about 22 units per month per estate, dropped by about 6 units compared to H1 2015. Many buyers showed a 3.0% 2.7% “wait and see” attitude in buying property due to the slow 2.5% 2.3% economy condition. In addition, mass layoffs which occurred in 2.10% 2.10% 2.0% 2.0% some companies, specifically in Oil & Gas industry, has 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.6% somehow affected the buyers’ decision to purchase property. 1.5% 1.7% Even though, the number of housing unit experience a slightly 1.0% 1.3% drop, the average sales value remained at relatively stable same 1.0% 0.9% level as that in H1 2015. The average monthly transaction of 0.5% landed residential in all area reached about 31.4 billion IDR per 0.0% month per estate. The highest monthly take-up value was still H1 2012H2 2012H1 2013H2 2013H1 2014H2 2014H1 2015H2 2015 contributed by Tangerang with average number of 57.3 billion Demand Supply IDR per month per estate. However the biggest increment of monthly take-up value occurred in Bekasi, which increased about 13.7 billion IDR, taking its monthly take-up value to 31.5 billion Overall Sales Rate 94% IDR. 92% Middle segment was the most transacted units during H2 2015 of about 34.2% of the total transaction, followed by lower-middle 90% Historical Average = 91.5% segment at about 29.9% of the overall transaction. The most 88% favorite housing units in ranged from 750 million to 1.6 billion IDR with building size of 45 to 96 sqm and land size of 60 to 112 86% sqm. 84% Due to the slowing market condition, many developers tend to hold launching their units supply, reflected with a major drop of 82% total net supply. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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Residential Snapshot H2 2015
Greater Jakarta
60.0 90.0 The total net supply in H2 2015 decreased almost half of the 80.0 previous net supply, from 6,178 units in H1 2015 to 3,228 units in
Take-Up Value/ Month (Billion IDR)
50.0 70.0 H2 2015. Most of the total net supply came from lower and Take-Up Unit/ Month (unit)
middle segments. The largest share of the total net supply
40.0 60.0 occurred in Bogor, even though it was only contributed by one 50.0 estate, Citra Indah. 30.0 40.0 Slower price increment was seen in the second semester of 2015 compared to that in the previous semester. Average sales 20.0 30.0 18.9
price in the Greater Jakarta grew by 4% HoH in H2 2015, lower
20.0 than the 7% HoH growth in H1 2015. Meanwhile, both of the land 10.0 10.0 price and construction cost also grew modestly by 4% and 5%, 11.6
49.7 37.1 30.0
27.6 35.8 21.3
10.6 16.2 15.9 4.8
0.0 - respectively. Jakarta Tangerang Bogor-Depok Bekasi
Unit H2 2014 IDR H2 2014 Unit H1 2015 IDR H1 2015 Unit H2 2015 IDR H2 2015 Outlook Optimistic market sentiment of Greater Jakarta landed residential market is expected to remain positive in 2016. However, due to some of the “wait and see” attitudes from both developers and buyers, the supply and demand growth are foreseen to grow positively in modest growth. In terms of unit supply, lower-middle and middle segment are expected to continue dominating the market supply in 2016. The housing supply ranging from 800 million to 2 billion IDR with average building size of 60 to 120 sqm and land size of 90 to 125 sqm.
PLANNED SUPPLY DEMAND AVG LAND PRICE
SUBMARKET DEVELOPED AREA (HA) SALES RATE AREA (HA) (UNITS) (UNITS) (IDR PSM)
*Cushman & Wakefield’s landed residential market analysis only focuses on actively marketed residential estates within the Greater Jakarta area. Those selected residential estates are considered as “major developments” with minimum development area of 30 hectares. Estates specializing in Healthy Simple Housing (Rumah Sederhana Sehat/ RSH) are excluded from the analysis.
Our market area coverage includes (1) North Jakarta; (2) Central Jakarta; (3) East Jakarta; (4) West Jakarta; (5) South Jakarta; (6) Bekasi Municipality; (7) Bekasi Regency; (8) Tangerang Municipality; (9) South Tangerang Municipality; (10) Tangerang Regency; (11) Depok Municipality; (12) Bogor Municipality; and (13) Bogor Regency.
JAKARTA Citra Garden City Aeromansion @ Aeroworld 8 UM to UP 300 TANGERANG Divine MI to UM 40 Bintaro Jaya Neou @ Kebayoran Harmony MI to UM 84 Paramount Serpong Amarilo (Phase 1) LM to MI 300 Suvarna Sutera Bianca LM 227 Nusa Loka Park MI 60 BSD City Anila House @ Vanya Park MI to UM 50 Vanya Lake Side UM 42 Serpong Jaya The Terrace LM 39 Citra Raya Paloma @ Gardenville (Phase 1) LM to MI 82 Metland Puri Type Azalea UP 10 BEKASI Cosmo Estate Phase 1 MI to UM 120 Lippo Cikarang Cosmo Estate Phase 2 MI to UM 52 Forest Green Phase 2 MI 48 Grand Wisata Cherryville 2 MI to UM 181 Kota Harapan Indah The Ara LM 200 BOGOR-DEPOK Bukit Damar LO 562 Citra Indah Bukit Dahlia LO 443 Bukit Ebony LO 388
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