Sapm 2 Total 90 Pages
Sapm 2 Total 90 Pages
Sapm 2 Total 90 Pages
POCHENDER VAJROJ
Regd. No : (1176-09-408014)
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
-2011)
1
ABSTRACT
Portfolio management is a process encompassing many
activities of investment is assets and securities. It is a
dynamic and flexible concept and involves regular
and systematic analysis, judgment, and action. A
combination of securities held together will give a beneficial
result if they grouped in a manner to secure higher returns
after taking into consideration the risk elements
The main objective of the Portfolio management is to
help the investors to make wise choice between alternate
investments without a post trading shares. Any portfolio
management must specify the objectives like Maximum
returns, Optimum Returns, Capital appreciation, Safety etc.,
in the same prospectus.
This service renders optimum returns to the investors
by proper selection and continuous shifting of portfolio from
one scheme to another scheme of from one plan to another
plan within the same scheme.
Six different companies are chosen for the studyWIPRO, ITC, DR.REDDY, ACC, BHEL, and HEROHONDA. The
companies chosen for the study are some of the top
performers in the securities market.
is
evident
from
this
analysis
that
BHEL
and
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
At the outset, I wish to thank the Management of India Infoline for their kind
gesture of allowing me to undertake this project, and its various employees who lent their
helping hand towards the completion of this study.
Finally I thank to my parents & friends for their continuous support and help in the
completion of my project work.
(POCHENDER
VAJROJ)
DECLARATION
hereby
declare
that
this
Project
Report
titled
PORTFOLIO
(POCHENDER.
VAJROJ)
INDEX
CHAPTER--1.
INTRODUCTION
Page number
1.0
Company profile
1.1
Portfolio Management
14
1.2
Functions
20
1.3
Objectives
18
1.4
Types of Risk
24
1.5
39
1.6
39
CHAPTER2
REVIEW OF LITERATURE
CHAPTER3
40
45
CHAPTER4
CONCLUSION
84
CHAPTER5
BIBLIOGRAPHY
88
CHAPTER -1
COMPANY PROFILE
COMPANY PROFILE
Circa 1995 A group of professional formed a company called Probity Research &
Services Pvt Ltd. The name was later changed to India Infoline Ltd. The Objective was to
provide unbiased and independent information to market intermediaries and investors.
The quality of research soon caught the imagination of all major participants in the
financial market. In a span of 2 to 3 years the client list read like the whos who of Indian
Financial market. The list included consulting firms like Mckinsey, companies like
Hindustan Lever, Banks like Citibank, Rating agencies like CRISIL, D&B, FIs, foreign
brokers as well as leading Indian brokers.
One fine morning in early 1999, a colleague had a crazy idea that if the company made
all the research available free on the web, the number of users may well jump from 250 to
2,5 million. To make it true, the business required a reincarnation. And the pre-requisite
was a death. It meant that the company put up all the information free on the website and
let go of all the revenues and profits. Worse, if the new avatar failed, there would be no
comebacks.
The company became heavily dependent on its e-broking business for survival. The odds
were against them. There was no money available from the private equity investors at any
valuation. The core promoters of the company had little experience of broking. To add to
it, the market was hit by a scam. They also had their share of price to pay and lessons to
learn. It was difficult to retain people. Although devastating for morale, but not
surprising, most market observers had written them off.
There was a core group who never lost hope. They cut all possible costs and worked on a
bare bones structure. They survived against all odds and started capturing market share.
The company rose from strength to strength to become the leading corporate agent in life
insurance and among the top retail players in mutual fund and broking space.
India Info line Limited is listed on both the leading stock exchanges in India, viz. the
Stock Exchange, Mumbai (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and is also a
member of both the exchanges. It is engaged in the businesses of Equities broking,
Wealth Advisory Services and Portfolio Management Services. It offers broking services
in the Cash and Derivatives segments of the NSE as well as the Cash segment of the
BSE. It is registered with NSDL as well as CDSL as a depository participant, providing a
one-stop solution for clients trading in the equities market. It has recently launched its
Investment banking and Institutional Broking business.
January 2007.
Entered into an alliance with Bank of Baroda for Baroda e-trading in February 2007.
IRDA license for Insurance Broking April 2007.
11
12
Mr. Sinha is also on the Board of Directors of Hindustan Motors Limited, Larsen &
Turbo Limited & LICHFL Care Homes Limited.
Our Vision will not be accomplished only by maintaining high growth alone. Our vision
is to emerge as the most respected financial services company in India. Needless to
emphasize that it is imperative for all us to align our personal goals and values to this
vision.
Knowledge:
Always keep yourself up-to-date by reading newspapers like Economics Times,
Business standard and Business Line daily. Passing NCFM, AMFI, IRDA exams also
help you to get basic domain understanding.
We are in a knowledge industry and hence we cannot afford to go to a client and
appear ignorant and foolish by not even knowing basic things.
Technology:
By technology, we mean that as an organization, we leverage technology to deliver
best service to our clients at the least cost.
Our trading interface for broking is absolutely world class.
We expect our employees to be comfortable with and confident of using technology.
Service:
13
Our customer service is warm, friendly and responsive that media cannot help but
rave about. Today, service is the key driver for growth in financial services. We take
pride in our ability to add value that our customers can feel and appreciate.
Remember we have to always ensure that simple things like ensuring customer problems
are solved, requests are catered to, giving him investment ideas etc. Basically, whatever it
takes to keep him served.
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
MEANING:
A portfolio is a collection of assets. The assets may be physical or financial like Shares,
Bonds, Debentures, Preference Shares, etc. The individual investor or a fund manager would not
like to put all his money in the shares of one company that would amount to great risk. He
would therefore, follow the age old maxim that one should not put all the eggs into one basket.
By doing so, he can achieve objective to maximize portfolio return and at the same time
minimizing the portfolio risk by diversification.
14
Portfolio management is the management of various financial assets which comprise the
portfolio.
Portfolio management is a decision support system that is designed with a view to meet
the multi-faced needs of investors.
According to Securities and Exchange Board of India Portfolio Manager is defined as:
Portfolio means the total holdings of securities belonging to any person.
PORTFOLIO MANAGER
15
STRUCTURE
PROCESS
OF
TYPICAL
PORTFOLIO
MANAGEMENT
In the small firm, the portfolio manager performs the job of security analyst.
In the case of medium and large sized organizations, job function of portfolio manager and secu
rity analyst are separate.
RESEARCH
(e.g. Security
Analysis)
PORTFOLIO
MANAGERS
OPERATIONS
(e.g. buying and
selling of Securities)
CLIENTS
16
Whatever may be the status of the capital market, over the long period capital markets
have given an excellent return when compared to other forms of investment. The return
from bank deposits, units, etc., is much less than from the stock market.
The Indian Stock Markets are very complicated. Though there are thousands of
companies that are listed only a few hundred which have the necessary liquidity. Even
among these, only some have the growth prospects which are conducive for investment.
It is impossible for any individual wishing to invest and sit down and analyze all these
intricacies of the market unless he does nothing else.
Even if an investor is able to understand the intricacies of the market and separate chaff
from the grain the trading practices in India are so complicated that it is really a difficult
task for an investor to trade in all the major exchanges of India, look after his deliveries
and payments
1. DISCRETIONARY
PORTFOLIO
MANAGEMENT
SERVICE
(DPMS):
In this type of service, the client parts with his money in favor of the manager, who in
return, handles all the paper work, makes all the decisions and gives a good return on the
investment and charges fees. In the Discretionary Portfolio Management Service, to maximize
the yield, almost all portfolio managers park the funds in the money market securities such as
overnight market, 18 days treasury bills and 90 days commercial bills. Normally, the return of
such investment varies from 14 to 18 percent, depending on the call money rates prevailing at the
time of investment.
17
18
19
20
21
2.
continuous job of the portfolio manager. A good analyst makes a good financial consultant. The
analyst can know the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities of the economy, industry and the
company.
3.
4.
22
PORTFOLIO BUILDING:
Portfolio decisions for an individual investor are influenced by a wide variety of factors.
Individuals differ greatly in their circumstances and therefore, a financial programme well suited
to one individual may be inappropriate for another. Ideally, an individuals portfolio should be
tailor-made to fit ones individual needs.
Investors Characteristics:
An analysis of an individuals investment situation requires a study of personal
characteristics such as age, health conditions, personal habits, family responsibilities, business or
professional situation, and tax status, all of which affect the investors willingness to assume risk.
Family responsibilities:
The investors marital status and his responsibilities towards other members of the family can
have a large impact on his investment needs and goals.
Investors experience:
The success of portfolio depends upon the investors knowledge and experience in
financial matters. If an investor has an aptitude for financial affairs, he may wish to be more
aggressive in his investments.
23
Liquidity Needs:
Liquidity needs vary considerably among individual investors. Investors with regular
income from other sources may not worry much about instantaneous liquidity, but individuals
who depend heavily upon investment for meeting their general or specific needs, must plan
portfolio to match their liquidity needs. Liquidity can be obtained in two ways:
1. By allocating an appropriate percentage of the portfolio to bank deposits, and
2. By requiring that bonds and equities purchased be highly marketable.
Tax considerations:
Since different individuals, depending upon their incomes, are subjected to different marginal
rates of taxes, tax considerations become most important factor in individuals portfolio strategy.
There are differing tax treatments for investment in various kinds of assets.
Time Horizon:
In investment planning, time horizon becomes an important consideration. It is highly
variable from individual to individual. Individuals in their young age have long time horizon for
planning, they can smooth out and absorb the ups and downs of risky combination. Individuals
who are old have smaller time horizon, they generally tend to avoid volatile portfolios.
24
Safety of Principal:
The protection of the rupee value of the investment is of prime importance to most investors.
The original investment can be recovered only if the security can be readily sold in the market
without much loss of value.
Assurance of Income:
`Different investors have different current income needs. If an individual is dependent of its
investment income for current consumption then income received now in the form of dividend
and interest payments become primary objective.
Investment Risk:
All investment decisions revolve around the trade-off between risk and return. All
rational investors want a substantial return from their investment. An ability to understand,
measure and properly manage investment risk is fundamental to any intelligent investor or a
speculator. Frequently, the risk associated with security investment is ignored and only the
rewards are emphasized. An investor who does not fully appreciate the risks in security
investments will find it difficult to obtain continuing positive results.
There is a positive relationship between the amount of risk and the amount of expected
return i.e., the greater the risk, the larger the expected return and larger the chances of substantial
loss. One of the most difficult problems for an investor is to estimate the highest level of risk he
is able to assume.
Risk is measured along the horizontal axis and increases from the left to right.
Expected rate of return is measured on the vertical axis and rises from bottom to top.
The line from 0 to R (f) is called the rate of return or risk less investments commonly
associated with the yield on government securities.
The diagonal line form R (f) to E(r) illustrates the concept of expected rate of return
increasing as level of risk increases.
26
TYPES OF RISKS:
Risk consists of two components. They are
1. Systematic Risk
2. Un-systematic Risk
1. Systematic Risk:
Systematic risk is caused by factors external to the particular company and uncontrollable
by the company. The systematic risk affects the market as a whole. Factors affect the systematic
risk are
Economic conditions
political conditions
sociological changes
The systematic risk is unavoidable. Systematic risk is further sub-divided into three types. They
are
a) Market Risk
b) Interest Rate Risk
c) Purchasing Power Risk
27
2. Un-systematic Risk:
Un-systematic risk is unique and peculiar to a firm or an industry. The nature and mode of
raising finance and paying back the loans, involve the risk element. Financial leverage of the
companies that is debt-equity portion of the companies differs from each other. All these factors
affect the un-systematic risk and contribute a portion in the total variability of the return.
Managerial inefficiently
Technological change in the production process
Availability of raw materials
Changes in the consumer preference
Labour problems
28
The nature and magnitude of the above mentioned factors differ from industry to industry
and company to company. They have to be analyzed separately for each industry and firm. Unsystematic risk can be broadly classified into:
a) Business Risk
b) Financial Risk
a.
Business Risk:
Business risk is that portion of the unsystematic risk caused by the operating environment of the
business. Business risk arises from the inability of a firm to maintain its competitive edge and
growth or stability of the earnings. The volatility in stock prices due to factors intrinsic to the
company itself is known as Business risk. Business risk is concerned with the difference between
revenue and earnings before interest and tax. Business risk can be divided into.
b.
Financial Risk:
It refers to the variability of the income to the equity capital due to the debt capital. Financial
risk in a company is associated with the capital structure of the company. Capital structure of the
company consists of equity funds and borrowed funds.
29
PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS:
Various groups of securities when held together behave in a different manner and give
interest payments and dividends also, which are different to the analysis of individual securities.
A combination of securities held together will give a beneficial result if they are grouped in a
manner to secure higher return after taking into consideration the risk element.
There are two approaches in construction of the portfolio of securities. They are
Traditional approach
Modern approach
TRADITIONAL APPROACH:
Traditional approach was based on the fact that risk could be measured on each
individual security through the process of finding out the standard deviation and that security
should be chosen where the deviation was the lowest. Traditional approach believes that the
market is inefficient and the fundamental analyst can take advantage of the situation. Traditional
approach is a comprehensive financial plan for the individual.
individual need such as housing, life insurance and pension plans. Traditional approach basically
deals with two major decisions. They are
a)
b)
30
MODERN APPROACH:
Modern approach theory was brought out by Markowitz and Sharpe. It is the combination
of securities to get the most efficient portfolio. Combination of securities can be made in many
ways. Markowitz developed the theory of diversification through scientific reasoning and
method. Modern portfolio theory believes in the maximization of return through a combination
of securities. The modern approach discusses the relationship between different securities and
then draws inter-relationships of risks between them. Markowitz gives more attention to the
process of selecting the portfolio. It does not deal with the individual needs.
MARKOWITZ MODEL:
Markowitz model is a theoretical framework for analysis of risk and return and their
relationships.
31
ASSUMPTIONS:
All investors would like to earn the maximum rate of return that they can achieve from
their investments.
All investors have the same expected single period investment horizon.
All investors before making any investments have a common goal. This is the avoidance
of risk because Investors are risk-averse.
Investors base their investment decisions on the expected return and standard deviation of
returns from a possible investment.
Perfect markets are assumed (e.g. no taxes and no transition costs)
The investor assumes that greater or larger the return that he achieves on his investments,
the higher the risk factor surrounds him. On the contrary when risks are low the return
can also be expected to be low.
The investor can reduce his risk if he adds investments to his portfolio.
An investor should be able to get higher return for each level of risk by determining the
efficient set of securities.
An individual seller or buyer cannot affect the price of a stock. This assumption is the
basic assumption of the perfectly competitive market.
Investors make their decisions only on the basis of the expected returns, standard
deviation and covariances of all pairs of securities.
32
33
34
R =
Rp
= Portfolio return
Xf
Rm
Formula can be used to calculate the expected returns for different situations, like mixing
risk less assets with risky assets, investing only in the risky asset and mixing the borrowing with
risky assets.
THE CONCEPT:
According to CAPM, all investors hold only the market portfolio and risk less securities.
The market portfolio is a portfolio comprised of all stocks in the market. Each asset is held in
proportion to its market value to the total value of all risky assets.
For example, if Satyam Industry share represents 15% of all risky assets, then the market
portfolio of the individual investor contains 15% of Satyam Industry shares. At this stage, the
investor has the ability to borrow or lend any amount of money at the risk less rate of interest.
E.g.: assume that borrowing and lending rate to be 12.5% and the return from the risky
assets to be 20%. There is a trade off between the expected return and risk. If an investor invests
in risk free assets and risky assets, his risk may be less than what he invests in the risky asset
alone. But if he borrows to invest in risky assets, his risk would increase more than he invests his
own money in the risky assets. When he borrows to invest, we call it financial leverage. If he
invests 50% in risk free assets and 50% in risky assets, his expected return of the portfolio would
be
35
if there is a zero investment in risk free asset and 100% in risky asset, the return is
Rp= Rf Xf+ Rm(1- Xf)
= 0 + 20%
= 20%
if -0.5 in risk free asset and 1.5 in risky asset, the return is
Rp= Rf Xf+ Rm(1- Xf)
= (12.5 x -0.5) + 20 (1.5)
= -6.25+ 30
= 23.75%
36
EVALUATION OF PORTFOLIO:
Portfolio manager evaluates his portfolio performance and identifies the sources of
strengths and weakness. The evaluation of the portfolio provides a feed back about the
performance to evolve better management strategy. Even though evaluation of portfolio
performance is considered to be the last stage of investment process, it is a continuous process.
There are number of situations in which an evaluation becomes necessary and important.
i.
Self Valuation: An individual may want to evaluate how well he has done. This
is a part of the process of refining his skills and improving his performance over a period
of time.
ii.
iii.
iv.
37
We can try to evaluate the performance of portfolio as a whole during the period without
examining the performance of individual securities within the portfolio.
individual securities as well as with the theory & practice of optimally combining securities into
portfolios.
38
The modern theory is of the view that by diversification, risk can be reduced. The
investor can make diversification either by having a large number of shares of companies in
different regions, in different industries or those producing different types of product lines.
Modern theory believes in the perspective of combinations of securities under constraints of risk
and return.
PORTFOLIO REVISION:
The portfolio which is once selected has to be continuously reviewed over a period of
time and then revised depending on the objectives of the investor. The care taken in construction
of portfolio should be extended to the review and revision of the portfolio. Fluctuations that
occur in the equity prices cause substantial gain or loss to the investors.
The investor should have competence and skill in the revision of the portfolio. The
portfolio management process needs frequent changes in the composition of stocks and bonds. In
securities, the type of securities to be held should be revised according to the portfolio policy.
An investor purchases stock according to his objectives and return risk framework. The
prices of stock that he purchases fluctuate, each stock having its own cycle of fluctuations.
These price fluctuations may be related to economic activity in a country or due to other changed
circumstances in the market.
If an investor is able to forecast these changes by developing a framework for the future
through careful analysis of the behavior and movement of stock prices is in a position to make
higher profit than if he was to simply buy securities and hold them through the process of
diversification. Mechanical methods are adopted to earn better profit through proper timing. The
investor uses formula plans to help him in making decisions for the future by exploiting the
fluctuations in prices.
39
FORMULA PLANS:
The formula plans provide the basic rules and regulations for the purchase and sale of
securities. The amount to be spent on the different types of securities is fixed. The amount may
be fixed either in constant or variable ratio. This depends on the investors attitude towards risk
and return. The commonly used formula plans are
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
ADVANTAGES:
Basic rules and regulations for the purchase and sale of securities are provided.
The rules and regulations are rigid and help to overcome human emotion.
The investor can earn higher profits by adopting the plans.
A course of action is formulated according to the investors objectives
It controls the buying and selling of securities by the investor.
DISADVANTAGES:
The formula plan does not help the selection of the security. The selection of the security
has to be done either on the basis of the fundamental or technical analysis.
It is strict and not flexible with the inherent problem of adjustment.
The formula plans should be applied for long periods, otherwise the transaction cost may
be high.
Even if the investor adopts the formula plan, he needs forecasting. Market forecasting
helps him to identify the best stocks.
40
41
CHAPTER-2
REVIEW OF LITARETURE
42
REVIEW OF LITERATURE
1. OVERVIEW
2. SCOPE
3. FINDINGS
43
2. SCOPE
3. FINDINGS
44
INVESTMENT
Investment may be defined as an activity that commits funds in any financial form in the
present with an expectation of receiving additional return in the future. The expectations bring
with it a probability that the quantum of return may vary from a minimum to a maximum. This
possibility of variation in the actual return is known as investment risk. Thus every investment
involves a return and risk.
Investment is an activity that is undertaken by those who have savings. Savings can be
defined as the excess of income over expenditure. An investor earns/expects to earn additional
monetary value from the mode of investment that could be in the form of financial assets.
Risk-the variability in returns of the asset form the chances of its value going down/up.
preference pattern of investments. Each financial asset will have a certain level of each of these
characteristics.
Investment avenues
There are a large number of investment avenues for savers in India. Some of them are
marketable and liquid, while others are non-marketable. Some of them are highly risky while
some others are almost risk less.
Investment avenues can be broadly categorized under the following head.
45
1. Corporate securities
2. Equity shares.
3. Preference shares.
4. Debentures/Bonds.
5. Derivatives.
6. Others.
Corporate Securities
Joint stock companies in the private sector issue corporate securities. These include
equity shares, preference shares, and debentures. Equity shares have variable dividend and hence
belong to the high risk-high return category; preference shares and debentures have fixed returns
with lower risk.The classification of corporate securities that can be chosen as investment
avenues can be depicted as shown below:
Equity
Shares
Preference
shares
Bonds
Warrants
46
Derivatives
CHAPTER-3
ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
(P0)
1,700.60
1,233.45
1,361.20
2012
1900.75
(P1)
1233.45
1361.20
2,012
1900.75
1900.45
D
1
29
5
5
8
(P1-P0)
-467.15
127.75
650.8
-111.25
-0.3
D+(P1-P0)/ P0*100
-27.41
12.71
48.16
-15.84
1.38
TOTAL RETURN
19
Year
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
(P0)
(P1)
696.70 628.25
628.25 1043.10
1043.10 1342.05
1342.05
2932
2932
2976
D
15
20
31.8
2.65
3.1
TOTAL RETURN
Average Return = 213.5/5 =42.702
dR REDDY LABORATORIES LTD:
48
(P1-P0)
-68.45
414.85
298.95
1589.95
44
D+(P1-P0)/
P0*100
-7.67
69.25
31.7
118.67
1.61
213.5
Year
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
(P0)
(P1)
1090.95
916.30
916.30
974.35
974.35
739.15
739.15 1,421.40
1,421.40 1456.55
D
5
5
5
5
3.75
(P1-P0)
-174.65
58.2
23.52
682.25
35.15
TOTAL RETURN
D+(P1-P0)/
P0*100
-15.55
6.89
-23.63
92.98
2.74
63.43
Year
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
(P0)
153.40
138.50
254.65
360.55
782.20
(P1)
138.50
254.65
360.55
782.20
735.25
D
2.5
4
7
8
25
(P1-P0)
-14.19
116.15
105.9
421.61
-46.95
TOTAL RETURN
D+(P1-P0)/
P0*100
-8.08
86.71
44.34
119.19
-2.8
239.35
Year
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
(P0)
169.00
223.15
604.35
766.40
(P1)
223.15
604.35
766.40
2241.95
D
4
9.5
8.5
10.5
49
(P1-P0)
54.15
38.12
162.05
1475.55
D+(P1-P0)/
P0*100
34.4
175.08
28.2
193.9
2011-2012
2241.95
2261.35
18.5
19.4
TOTAL RETURN
1.69
433.27
Year
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
(P0)
338.55
188.20
490.60
548.00
890.45
(P1)
188.20
490.60
548.00
890.45
688.75
D
18
20
20
20
17
(P1-P0)
-150.35
302.40
57.40
342.45
-20.17
TOTAL RETURN
193.4
DIAGRAMATIC PRESENTATION
COMPANY
RETURN
WIPRO
3.8
ITC
42.7
DR.REDDY
12.6
ACC
47.8
86.5
BHEL
HEROHONDA
50
D+(P1-P0)/
P0*100
-39.08
171.3
15.77
66.14
-20.74
38.6
Year
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
Return
Avg.
(R)
Return (R) (R-R)
-27.41
3.8 -31.214
12.71
3.8
16.51
48.16
3.8
51.96
-15.84
3.8 -19.64
1.38
3.8
-2.42
(R-R)2
974.06
272.58
2,649.84
385.72
5.85
TOTAL
4,288.05
_
Variance = 1/n (R-R)2 = 1/5 (4,288.05) = 857.61
Standard Deviation = Variance =
857.61
=29.28
(R-R)
50.37
26.5
-11
75.97
-41.09
(R-R)2
2,537
702.25
121
5,771.4
1,688.39
ITC LTD:
Year
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
Return
Avg.
(R)
Return (R)
-7.67
42.702
69.25
42.702
31.7
42.702
118.67
42.702
1.61
42.702
TOTAL
10,820.04
Variance =
51
2,164.008= 46.5
DR. REDDY:
Year
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
Return
Avg.
(R)
Return (R)
-15.55
12.67
6.89
12.67
-23.63
12.67
92.98
12.67
2.74
12.67
(R-R)2
796.37
33.41
1,317.7
6,449.6
98.6
(R-R)
-28.22
-5.78
-36.3
80.31
-9.93
TOTAL
8,696
ACC:
Year
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
Return
Avg.
(R)
Return (R)
-8.08
47.87
86.71
47.87
44.34
47.87
119.19
47.87
-2.8
47.87
(R-R)
-55.95
38.84
-3.53
71.32
-50.67
(R-R)2
3,130.4
1,508.5
12.46
5,086.5
2,567
TOTAL
12,305
52
BHEL:
Year
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
Return
Avg.
(R)
Return (R) (R-R)
34.4
86.65 -52.25
175.08
86.65
88.43
28.2
86.65 -58.454
193.9
86.65 107.25
1.69
86.65 -84.96
TOTAL
(R-R)2
2,730
7,820
3,416
11,502.5
7,218.2
32,687
Return
Avg.
(R)
Return (R)
-39.08
38.7
171.3
38.7
15.77
38.7
66.14
38.7
-20.74
38.7
TOTAL
(R-R)
-77.8
132.6
-22.93
27.44
-59.44
(R-R)2
6,053
17,583
525.8
752.95
3,533
28,448
53
DIAGRAMATIC PRESENTATION
COMPANY
RISK
WIPRO
29.28
ITC
46.5
DR.REDDY
41.7
ACC
49.61
BHEL
80.85
HEROHONDA
75.4
54
CALCULATION OF CORRELATION:
Covariance (COV ab) = 1/n (RA-RA)(RB-RB)
Correlation Coefficient = COV ab/a*b
YEAR
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
(RA-RA)
-31.21
16.51
51.96
-19.64
-2.42
(RB-RB)
(RA-RA) (RB-RB)
50.37
-1572
26.5
437.5
-11
-571.5
75.97
-1492
-41.09
99.44
TOTAL
-3099
YEAR
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
(RA-RA)
-31.21
16.51
51.96
-19.64
-2.42
(RB-RB)
(RA-RA) (RB-RB)
-28.22
881
-5.78
-95.43
-36.3
-1886
80.31
-1577.3
-9.93
24
TOTAL
-2654
= -530.8/(29.3)(41.7) = -0.43
YEAR
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
(RA-RA)
-31.21
16.51
51.96
-19.64
-2.42
(RB-RB)
(RA-RA) (RB-RB)
-55.95
1746
38.84
641
-3.53
-183
71.32
-1400
-50.67
122.6
TOTAL
926.6
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
(RA-RA)
-31.21
16.51
51.96
-19.64
-2.42
(RB-RB)
52.25
88.43
-58.45
107.25
-84.96
TOTAL
(RA-RA) (RB-RB)
-1630
1460
-3037
-2106
205.6
-5107
56
YEAR
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
(RA-RA)
-31.21
16.51
51.96
-19.64
-2.42
TOTAL
3031
57
(RA-RA)
50.37
26.5
-11
75.97
-41.09
TOTAL
Covariance (COV ab) = 1/5 (5334) = 1066.8
5334
YEAR
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
(RA-RA)
50.37
26.5
-11
75.97
-41.09
TOTAL
5750
58
(RA-RA)
50.37
26.5
-11
75.97
-41.09
TOTAL
17257
(RA-RA)
50.37
26.5
-11
75.97
-41.09
TOTAL
4626
59
(RA-RA)
-28.22
-5.78
-36.3
80.31
-9.93
TOTAL
7714
(RA-RA)
-28.22
-5.78
-36.3
80.31
-9.93
TOTAL
9593.5
= 1919/(41.7)(80.85) = 0.6
iii. DR REDDY (RA) &HEROHONDA(RB)
YEAR
(RA-RA) (RB-RB) (RA-RA) (RB-RB)
YEAR
2007-2008(RA-RA)
-28.22 (RB-RB)
-77.8(RA-RA) (RB-RB)
2196
2007-2008
-55.95
52.25
-2923.4
2008-2009
-5.78
132.6
-766
2008-2009
38.84
88.43
3435
2009-2010
-36.3
-22.93
832.36
2009-2010
-3.53
-58.45
206.3
YEAR
2010-2011
80.31
27.44
2204
2010-2011
71.32
107.25
7649590
2011-2012(RA-RA)
-9.93 (RB-RB)
-59.44 (RA-RA) (RB-RB)
2007-2008
-55.95
52.25
-2923.4
2011-2012
-50.67
-84.96
4305
5056
2008-2009
38.84
88.43
3435
TOTAL
12,672
2009-2010 TOTAL
-3.53
-58.45
206.3
2010-2011
71.32
107.25
7649
2011-2012
-50.67
-84.96
4305
TOTAL
Covariance (COV ab) = 1/5 (5056) = 1011
12,672
61
YEAR
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
(RA-RA)
-55.95
38.84
-3.53
71.32
-50.67
TOTAL
Covariance (COV ab) = 1/5 (14553) = 2911
Correlation Coefficient = COV ab/a*b
a = 49.61; b = 75.4
=2911/(49.61)(75.4) = 0.78
62
14553
CORRELATION
HONDA
YEAR
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
BETWEEN
(RA-RA)
52.25
88.43
-58.45
107.25
-84.96
BHEL(RA)
TOTAL
16,994.25
63
&HERO
b [b-(nab*a)]
a2 + b2 - 2nab*a*b
Wb = 1 Wa
WEIGHTS OF WIPRO & OTHER COMPANIES:
i.
46.52 [46.52-(-0.45*29.28)]
2 + 2 2(-0.45)**
2777
4247.3
Wa = 0.65
Wb = 1 Wa
Wb = 1- 0.65 = 0.35
i.
41.7 [41.7-(0.43*)]
2 + 2 2(0.43)**
Wa =
1213.47
1546.19
Wa = 0.78
Wb = 1 Wa
Wb = 1- 0.78 = 0.22
64
ii.
Wa =
49.61 [- (0.13*)]
2 + 2 2(0.13)**
2272.14
2940.6
Wa =0.77
Wb = 1 Wa
Wb = 1- 0.77 = 0.23
iii.
Wa =
Wa =
7554.6
9430
Wa = 0.8
Wb = 1 Wa
Wb = 1-0.8 =0.2
65
iv.
75.4 [75.4-(0.27*2)]
+ 2 2(0.27)**
Wa =
Wa =
5088.77
5350.46
Wa = 0.95
Wb = 1 Wa
Wb = 1-0.95 = 0.05
Wa =
41.7 [41.7-(0.55*46.52)]
2 + 2 2(0.55)**
671.79
1769.13
Wa = 0.38
Wb = 1 Wa
Wb = 1- 0.38 = 0.62
66
49.61 [49.61-(0.5*46.52)]
+ 2 2(0.5)**
2
Wa =
1307.2
2317.4
Wa = 0.56
Wb = 1 Wa
Wb = 1- 0.56 = 0.44
Wa =
3076.74
1780.33
Wa =1.73
Wb = 1 Wa
Wb = 1- 1.73 = -0.73
67
nab = 0.26
Wa =
Wa =
75.4 [75.4-(0.26*46.52)]
2 + 2 2(0.26)**
4772.82
6025.31
Wa = 0.79
Wb = 1 Wa
Wb = 1- 0.79 = 0.21
Wa =
907.8
1094
Wa = 0.83
Wb = 1 Wa
Wb = 1- 0.83 = 0.17
80.85 [80.85-(0.6*41.7)]
68
2 + 2 2(0.60)**
Wa =
4513.85
4230.26
Wa = 1.06
Wb = 1 Wa
Wb = 1- 1.06 = -0.06
v. DRREDDY (a) & HEROHONDA (b)
a = 41.7
b = 75.4
nab = 0.32
Wa =
75.4 [75.4-(0.32*41.7)]
+ 2 2(0.32)**
2
Wa =
4679
5412.16
Wa = 0.86
Wb = 1 Wa
Wb = 1-0.86 = 0.14
Wa =
80.85 [80.85-(0.63*49.61)]
2 + 2 2(0.63)**
4010.16
3944.08
Wa = 1.02
69
Wb = 1 Wa
Wb = 1- 1.02 = 0.02
Wa =
2767.18
2310.98
Wa = 1.20
Wb = 1 Wa
Wb = 1- 1.20 = -0.20
75.4 [75.4-(0.55*80.85)]
+ 2 2(0.55)**
2
Wa =
2332
5515.88
Wa =0.42
Wb = 1 Wa
Wb = 1-0.42 = 0.58
70
RP =
348.3
= 18.66%
71
RP
(29.28*0.78)2+(41.7*0.22)2+2(29.28)**(0.22)*(0.43)
785.94
= 28%
(29.28*0.77)2+(49.61*0.23)2+2(29.28)**(0.23)*(0.13)
705.37
= 26.55%
(29.28*0.8)2+()2+2(29.28)**(0.2)*(0.43)
484.45
= 22%
(2/3)2(49.57)2+(1/32(80.25)2+2(49.57)**(2/3)*(1/3)
72
4786
= 69.18
RP =
(46.52*0.38)2+(41.7*0.62)2+2(46.52)**(0.62)*(0.55)
1483.67
= 38.52%
(46.52*0.56)2+(49.61*0.44)2+2(46.52**(0.44)*(0.5)
1723.81 =41.52%
ITC (a) & BHEL (b):
a = 46.52
b = 80.85
Wa= 1.73
Wb= -0.73
nab = 0.92
73
RP =
(46.52*1.73)2+(80.85*-0.73)2+2(46.52)**(-0.73)*(0.92)
1220.49
= 34.94%
RP =
(46.52*0.79)2+(75.4*0.21)2+2(46.52)**(0.21)*(0.26)
1903.93
= 43.63
74
RP =
1706.93
= 41.3%
(41.7*1.06)2+(80.85*-0.06)2+2(41.7)**(-0.06)*(0.43)
1672.97
= 40.95%
(41.7*0.86)2+(75.4*0.14)2+2(41.7)**(0.14)*(0.32)
RP =
1639.69
= 40.49%
2460.09
= 49.6%
(49.61*1.2)2+(75.4* -0.2)2+2(49.61)**(-0.2)*(0.78)
2370.99 = 48.69%
76
b = 75.4
Wa =0.42
Wb =0.58
nab = 0.55
(80.85*0.42)2+(75.4*0.58)2+2(80.85)**(0.58)*(0.55)
RP =
4591.88
= 67.76%
WA=0.65
RB=42.7
WB=0.35
Rp = (3.8*0.65) + (42.7*0.35)
Rp = (2.47+ 14.945)
Rp = 17.415%
WA=0.78
RB=12.67
WB=0.22
Rp = (3.8*0.78) + (12.67*0.22)
Rp = (2.964 + 2.787)
Rp = 5.75%
77
WA=0.77
RB= 42.87
WB=0.23
Rp = (3.8*0.77) + (42.87*0.23)
Rp = (2.926+9.86)
Rp = 12.78
WA=0.80
RB= 86.5
WB=0.20
Rp = (3.8*0.80) + (86.65*0.20)
Rp = (3.04+17.13)
Rp = (20.17)
WA=0.95
RB= 38.7
WB=0.05
Rp = (3.8*0.95) + (38.7*0.05)
Rp = (3.61 + 1.935)
Rp = 5.5%
WA=0.38
RB= 12.67
WB=0.62
Rp = (42.7*0.38) + (12.67*0.62)
Rp = 16.22+7.85
Rp = 24%
RA= 42.7
WA=0.56
RB= 47.87
WB=0.44.
Rp = (42.7*0.56) + (47.87*0.44)
Rp = (23.9+21.03)
Rp = 45%
WA=1.73
RB= 86.65
WB=-0.73
Rp = (42.7*1.73) + (86.65*-0.73)
Rp = (73.87-63.25)
Rp = 10.62%
WA=0.79
RB= 38.7
WB=0.21
WA=0.38
RB=47.87
WB=0.62
Rp = (12.67*0.38) + (47.87*0.62)
Rp = (10.51+8.14)
Rp = 18.65%
RA= 12.67
WA=1.06
RB=86.65
WB= -0.06
Rp 12.67*1.06 + 86.65*-0.06
Rp 13.43 5.2
Rp 8.23%
WA=0.86
RB=38.7
WB=0.14
Rp (12.67*0.86) + (38.7*0.14)
Rp 10.9 + 5.4
Rp 16%
WA=1.02
RB=86.65
WB=-0.02
Rp = (47.87*1.02) + (86.65*-0.02)
Rp = (48.82 1.733)
Rp = 47.1%
WA=1.20
RB=38.7
WB=-0.20
Rp = (47.87*1.20) + (38.7*-0.20)
Rp = (57.444 7.74)
Rp = 49.7%
80
WA=0.42
RB=38.7
WB=0.58
COMBINATION
WIPRO & ITC
WIPRO & DR.REDDY
WIPRO & ACC
WIPRO & BHEL
WIPRO &H.HONDA
ITC & DR.REDDY
ITC &ACC
ITC &BHEL
ITC &HEROHONDA
DR.REDDY & ACC
DR.REDDY & BHEL
DR.REDDY & H.HONDA
ACC & BHEL
ACC & H.HONDA
BHEL & H.HONDA
CORRELATION
-0.45
-0.43
0.13
-0.43
0.27
0.55
0.5
0.92
0.26
0.75
0.6
0.32
0.63
0.78
0.55
COVARIANCE
-619.8
-530.8
185.32
-1021
606.2
1066.8
1150
3451.4
925.2
1543
1919
1011
2534
2911
3398.85
81
PORTFOLIO
RETURN
17.4
5.75
12.78
20.17
5.5
24
45
10.62
41.85
18.65
8.23
16.3
47.1
49.7
58.85
PORTFOLIO
RISK
18.66
28
26.55
22
69.18
38.52
41.52
34.94
43.63
41.3
40.95
40.49
49.6
48.69
67.76
Interpretations
The analytical part of the study for the 5 years period reveals the following
interpretations,
wipro with itc:
In this combination as per the calculations and the study; the Wipro bears a portion of investment
of (0.65) and where as ITC bears a proportion of (0.35) which is less when compared to the
Wipro. The standard Deviation i.e., the risk is reduced to 17.4%.
From the Return point of view the ITC is giving more returns than Wipro; so the investors are
advised to invest more in ITC, so that they can earn more returns.
From the Risk point of view Wipro so less risky than ITC, so the investors who are willing to
face high risk the better option will be investing in the Wipro.
82
The another combination for portfolio decision making is Wipro and Hero Honda. The Wipros
investment proportion is 0.95 and for Hero Honda is 0.05. And the standard Deviation for the
Wipro is 29.28 and 75.4 for Hero Honda. And the returns of them are (3.8) and (38.7). It is a
risky combination for the investors, because both the companies having more risk less return
with them.
According to this combination the portfolio weights are (0.83) in DR.Reddy and (0.17) in the
ACC. The Standard Deviation of ACC is more than the DR.Reddy i.e., 49.61>41.7;
If the investor wants to take low risk the Dr.Reddy is better option. And the return point of view
ACC is providing more returns than that of Dr.Reddy.
According to this combination if the investor wants to get returns then he has to take more risk.
84
CHAPTER-4
Summary and conclusions
85
SUMMARY
The investors who ae risk averse can invest their funds in the portfolio
combination of WIPRO, ITC, DR.REDDY, ACC, BHEL, HEROHONDA
companies are in the proportion. The investors who are slightly risk averse are
suggested to invest in WIPRO, DR. REDDY, ITC & ACC as the combination is
slightly low risk when compared with other companies.
86
CONCLUSIONS
The analytical part of study for the 5 years reveals the following as for as:
87
RECOMMENDATIONS
As the average return of securities BHEL ACC and HEROHONDAIS
HIGH, it is suggested that investors who show interest in these
securities taking risk into consideration.
As the risk of the securities ACC BHEL HEROHONDA are risky
securities it suggested that the investors should be careful while
investing in these securities.
The investors who require minimum return with low risk should
invest in WIPRO & DR.REDDY.
It is recommended that the investors who require high risk with high
return should invest in BHEL and HEROHONDA.
The investors are benefited by investing in selected scripts of
Industries.
88
CHAPTER-5
BIBILOGRAPHY
89
BIBILOGRAPHY
WEB REFERENCES
http;//www.nseindia.com
http;//www.bseindia.com
http;//www.economictimes.com
90
http;//www.answers.com
91