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Sol Ch5-CF

The document describes rules for calculating certainty factors (CF) given evidence and conclusions. It provides CFs for various evidence statements and asks to calculate the CFs for conclusions H given evidence E using the rules and CFs provided. It then provides the answers, which are that CF1(H,e) = 0.15, CF2(H,e) = 0.63, and CFcombine(CF1(H,e), CF2(H,e)) = 0.6855.

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235 views3 pages

Sol Ch5-CF

The document describes rules for calculating certainty factors (CF) given evidence and conclusions. It provides CFs for various evidence statements and asks to calculate the CFs for conclusions H given evidence E using the rules and CFs provided. It then provides the answers, which are that CF1(H,e) = 0.15, CF2(H,e) = 0.63, and CFcombine(CF1(H,e), CF2(H,e)) = 0.6855.

Uploaded by

AbeerHassan
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Question1 :(3 marks)

Given rules:
IF E1 AND E2 and E3
Then H (CF1)
IF E4 or E5
Then H (CF2)
Where:
CF1 (E1,e) = 1 CF1(E2,e) = 0.5 CF1 (E3,e) = 0.3
CF2(E4,e) = 0.7 CF2(E5,e) = 0.2
CF1(H,E) = 0.5 CF2(H,E) 0.9
Calculate the Certainty factors CF1(H,e) and CF2(H,e)
Calculate CFcombine(CF1(H,e), CF2(H,e))

Answer:

We have E1 AND E2 AND E3 -> min(1,0.5,0.3) = 0.3


CF1(H,e) = CF1(E,e) * CF1(H,E)
= 0.3 * 0.5
= 0.15
We have E4 or E5 -> max(0.7,0.2) = 0.7
CF2(H,e) = CF2(E,e) * CF2(H,E)
= 0.7 * 0.9
=0.63
CFcombine (CF1(H,e), CF2(H,e))
since both of them are greater than 0
we can use CF1+CF2(1-CF1) rule

0.15+0.63(1-0.15) = 0.6855

THE CF1(H,e) = 0.15


CF2(H,e) = 0.63

CFcombine(CF1(H,e), CF2(H,e)) = 0.6855

Question
A) Using the following rules and
recommendations.(10 marks)
CF(Interest rate low) = 0.7
CF(Inflation low) = 0.6
CF(Employment good) = 0.6
CF(Bond prices low) = 0.6
Rl
IF
Interest rate low
AND Inflation low
THEN Market steady CF 0.9

information, determine investment


CF(Interest rate high) = 0.2
CF(Inflation high) = 0.5
CF(Stock prices low) = 0.4
R2

IF Interest rate high


AND Inflation high
THEN Market unsteady CF

0.8
R3

R5

IF Market steady
OR Employment good
THEN Buy stocks CF 0.8

R4

IF Stock prices low


THEN Buy stocks CF 0.7

IF Market unsteady
AND Employment good
THEN Buy bonds CF 0.9

R6

IF Bond prices low


THEN Buy bonds CF 0.6

Answer:

From Rule 1: CF(Interest rate low and Inflation low)


= min(CF(Interest rate low), CF(Inflation low))
= min(0.7, 0.6) = 0.6
Initially, CF(Market Steady) = 0.
After applying Rule 1 to update CF(Market Steady) based on Case 1 of
conditional CF:
CF(Market Steady | Interest rate low and Inflation low)
= 0 + (1 0) * min(CF(Interest rate low), CF(Inflation low)) * CF(Rule 1)
= 0 + (1 0) * 0.6 * 0.9
= 0.54
Similarly, from Rule 2: Initially, CF(Market Unsteady) = 0.
CF(Market Unsteady) is updated by Case 1:
CF(Market Unsteady | Interest rate high and Inflation high)
= 0 + (1 0) * min(CF(Interest rate high), CF(Inflation high)) * CF(Rule 2)
= 0 + (1 0) * 0.2 * 0.8
= 0.16

From Rule 3: Initially, CF(Buy Stocks) = 0.


CF(Buy Stocks | Market Steady and Employment Good)
= 0 + (1 0) * max(CF(Market Steady), CF(Employment Good)) * CF(Rule 3)
= 0 + (1 0) * 0.6 * 0.8
= 0.48
From Rule 4: CF(Buy Stocks | Stock Price Low)
= 0.48 + (1 0.48) * CF(Stock Price Low) * CF(Rule 4)
= 0.48 + 0.52 * 0.4 * 0.7
= 0.63
From Rule 5: Initially, CF(Buy Bonds) = 0.
CF(Buy Bonds | Market unsteady and Employment good)
= 0 + (1 0) * min(CF(Market Unsteady), CF(Employment Good)) * CF(Rule 5)
= 0 + min(0.16, 0.6) * 0.9
= 0.14
From Rule 6: Initially, CF(Bond Prices Low) = 0, because it is treated as neutral
when no information is given.
Conclusion: After applying given initial conditions through applicable rules, we
have
CF(Buy Stocks) = 0.63 > CF(Buy Bonds) = 0.14 Therefore, the conclusion is to Buy
Stocks.

Question
Given the forecasting rules below, show how they would fire to forecast tomorrows weather when
provided with the following information:
CF(There is rain
today)= 0.8
CF( Today is dry)=-0.8
CF(The rain fall is low )= 0.8
CF ( Temperature is cold)= 0.9
CF(Temperature is warm)=-0.9
CF(Sky is overcast)=0.7
R1: if today is rain
then tomorrow is rain {cf 0.5}
R3: if today is rain and rainfall is low
then tomorrow is dry {cf 0.6}
R5: if today is dry
and temperature is warm
then tomorrow is rain {cf 0.65}

R2: if today is dry


then tomorrow is dry {cf 0.5}
R4:if today is rain and rainfall is low
and temperature is cold
then tomorrow is dry {cf 0.7}
R6: if today is dry
and temperature is warm
and sky is overcast
then tomorrow is rain {cf 0.55}

Answer:
R2: CF(tomorrow is dry)=0.5*-0.8=-0.4
R3: CF(tomorrow is dry)=.6*.8= 0.48
CFCombile1=(-0.4+0.48)/(1-0.4)=0.08/0.6=0.1333333333333333
R4:CF(tomorrow is dry)=0.7*0.8= 0.56
CFCombile2=0.1333333333333333+0.56(1-0.1333333333333333)=0.6172
R1: CF( tomorrow is rain)=0.5*0.8=0.4
R5: CF( tomorrow is rain)=-0.9*0.65=-0.585
CFCombile1=(0.4-0.585)/(1-0.4)=-0.185/0.6=-0.308333333333333
R6: CF( tomorrow is rain)=-0.9*0.55=- 0.495
CFCombile2=(-0.1733333333333333-0.495)/(1-0.1.7333333333333)=-0.65

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