Definition
A stationary population is a special example of a stable population with a zero
growth rate, neither growing nor shrinking in size, and is equivalent to a life table
population.
Stable populations are theoretical models widely used by demographers to
represent and understand the structure, growth and evolution of human
populations. By definition, stable populations have age-specific fertility and
mortality rates that remain constant over time. It can be proved mathematically
that populations with unchanging fertility and mortality patterns grow (or shrink) at
a constant rate and acquire a characteristic age structure that does not change over
time.
Calculating r using an iterative method stable p[population theory
Lotkas third equation is difficult to solve because the unknown variable (r) appears
in an exponential expression in every term of the equation. Using a spreadsheet or
statistical software, it is possible to find a numerical solution using a series of
iterations. The first step in solving Lotkas equation using this method is to find an
initial, approximate value for r. This can be done by guesswork or we can make an
approximation based on generation length,.
A worked example using empirical fertility and mortality schedules
We will illustrate the use of iteration, using life table and fertility data from Kuwait,
1982. (See the spread sheet for data)
A convenient starting point for an initial value of the growth rate is to use the
relationship
r=ln{NRR}/G
with an approximate value of G = 27 years for the generation length. We use 27 as
an approximate value of G because it is a reasonable guess at the mean age of
reproduction in human populations. In the case of Kuwait, this gives us a starting
value of r = ln(2.319)/27 = 0.0311.
Age
group
Midpoint
Female age-specific
fertility rate
x - x+4
5 x
15-19
17.5
0.03234
4.76625
f /2.05
Life table person Lotka
years
calculation
Lx
f Lx.exp{ra}
5 x.5
0.08937
20-24
22.5
0.10356
4.74050
0.24360
25-29
27.5
0.12429
4.70725
0.24844
30-34
32.5
0.10400
4.66750
0.17640
35-39
37.5
0.07741
4.61900
0.11120
40-44
42.5
0.03795
4.55550
0.04601
45-49
47.5
0.01624
4.46675
0.01652
NRR =
2.319
Lotka sum
0.93155
27
r estimate
0.0311
The next step is to check this growth rate estimate by using it in Lotkas equation. In
the following table, the individual terms of Lotkas equation for each age group are
shown in the last column, and the sum of these terms is 0.93155. With our initial
value of r, Lotkas equation does not balance (i.e. the sum of the terms does not
equal 1).
We can then use iterative methods to get a more precise estimate of the growth
rate. It is clear that a slightly lower value of r is needed to balance the equation,
and it would be possible to keep guessing values of the growth rate to move
towards a sum of 1.0. But Coales iteration formula for a subsequent value of r
allows us to refine our estimate of the growth rate more efficiently. In this formula,
r1 is the previous estimate of r and x1 the previous sum of Lotkas equation. The
NRR in this population is 2.319.
r=r1.ln(NRR)/[(ln(NRR)x1+1)]
So in this case, our next growth rate estimate will be:
r=0.0311.ln(2.319)/[(ln(2.319)0.93155+1)]=0.0288
Once again we insert the new value of the growth rate in to Lotkas equation to see
if we have found the correct growth rate for the given schedules of fx and Lx. If the
equation still does not converge to 1, we repeat the process until it does:
Age
group
x - x+4
Midpoint
a
Female age-specific Life table person
fertility rate
years
5Lx
5fx/2.05
Iterations
5fx.5Lx.exp{-ra}
2
3
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
17.5
22.5
27.5
32.5
37.5
42.5
47.5
NRR =
G
0.03234
0.10356
0.12429
0.10400
0.07741
0.03795
0.01624
2.319
27
4.76625
4.74050
4.70725
4.66750
4.61900
4.55550
4.46675
Lotka sum
r estimate
0.08937 0.09312 0.09334
0.24360 0.25679 0.25758
0.24844 0.26499 0.26599
0.17640 0.19037 0.19122
0.11120 0.12142 0.12204
0.04601 0.05083 0.05113
0.01652 0.01847 0.01859
0.93155 0.99598 0.99989
0.0311 0.0288 0.0287
0.09334
0.25760
0.26601
0.19124
0.12206
0.05114
0.01859
1.00000
0.0287
After 4 iterations, we can see that Lotkas equation has produced a value of 1. This
means we have found the correct growth rate for the given schedules of fx and Lx.
Using the following life table data, from England and Wales in 1996, use the
iterative method to calculate a precise growth rate estimate. You will need to use
Coales iteration formula to narrow the growth rate estimate with greater precision.
The NRR in this population is 0.837, you have been provided with an initial growth
rate guess of -0.00659, based on ln(NRR)/27. Use 5 decimal places, when you find a
value of r closer than 0.0001 to 1 then that is close enough! (see the spread sheet
attached. )
