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Poisson Distribution for Apple Store

The Poisson distribution describes the probability of a number of discrete events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space. It can be used to model the number of customers arriving at an Apple store per week based on the average. For example: 1) The probability a life insurance salesman will sell at least one policy in a given week is 95.02% assuming he averages 3 policies per week. 2) The probability he will sell between 2 and 5 (but not including 5) policies is 61.61%. 3) Assuming he averages 0.6 policies per day, the probability he will sell one policy on a given day is 32.93%. 4) For a sample of 20 aluminum

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Mirko Mazzon
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326 views4 pages

Poisson Distribution for Apple Store

The Poisson distribution describes the probability of a number of discrete events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space. It can be used to model the number of customers arriving at an Apple store per week based on the average. For example: 1) The probability a life insurance salesman will sell at least one policy in a given week is 95.02% assuming he averages 3 policies per week. 2) The probability he will sell between 2 and 5 (but not including 5) policies is 61.61%. 3) Assuming he averages 0.6 policies per day, the probability he will sell one policy on a given day is 32.93%. 4) For a sample of 20 aluminum

Uploaded by

Mirko Mazzon
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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APPLICATION OF POISSON DISTRIBUTION

FOR APPLE STORE


The Poisson Distribution was developed by the French mathematician Simeon
Denis Poisson in 1837.
The Poisson random variable satisfies the following conditions:
1. The number of successes in two disjoint time intervals is independent.
2. The probability of a success during a small time interval is proportional to
the entire length of the time interval.
Apart from disjoint time intervals, the Poisson random variable also applies to
disjoint regions of space.
The probability distribution of a Poisson random variable X representing the
number of successes occurring in a given time interval or a specified region of
space is given by the formula:

P ( X )=

e x
x!

Where
x = 0, 1, 2, 3,
e= 2.71828
= mean number of successes in the given time interval or region of space.
Mean and Variance of Poisson Distribution
If is the average number of successes occurring in a given time interval or
region in the Poisson distribution, then the mean and the variance of the
Poisson distribution are both equal to .
E(X) =
and
V(X) = 2 =
Note: In a Poisson distribution, only one parameter, is needed to determine
the probability of an event.
Application Apple Store 1
A life insurance salesman sells on the average 3 life insurance policies per
week. Use Poisson's law to calculate the probability that in a given week he will
sell

a) Some policies
b) 2 or more policies but less than 5 policies.
c) Assuming that there are 5 working days per week, what is the probability
that in a given day he will sell one policy?
Here, = 3
"Some policies" means "1 or more policies". We can work this out by finding 1
minus the "zero policies" probability:
P(X > 0) = 1 P(x0)
Now

P ( X )=

e x
x!

so

P ( x0 ) =

e3 30
0!

= 4,9787 x 10 2

Probability = P(X0)
= 1 P(x0)
= 1 4.9787 10-10
= 0.95021
(b) The probability of selling 2 or more, but less than 5 policies is:

P(2X<5)
= P(x2) + P(x3) + P(x4)

e3 32
2!

e3 33
3!

e3 34
4!

=0.61611
(c) Average number of policies sold per day:

3
=0,6
5

So on a given day,

P(X)=

e0,6 0,6 1
1!

= 0.32929

Appliocation Apple Store 2


Twenty sheets of aluminum alloy were examined for surface flaws. The
frequency of the number of sheets with a given number of flaws per sheet was
as follows:

Number of
flaws

Frequency

What is the probability of finding a sheet chosen at random which contains 3 or


more surface flaws?
The total number of flaws is given by:
(04) + (13) + (25) +(32) + (44) + (51) + (61) = 46
So the average number of flaws for the 20 sheets is given by:

46
=2,3
20

The required probability is:

Probability = P(X3)
= 1 (P(x0) + P(x1) + P(x2))
2,3

2,3
0!
1

e2,3 2,31
1!

e2,3 2,32
2!

= 0.40396
Histogram of Probabilities

We can see the predicted probabilities for each of "No flaws", "1
flaw", "2 flaws", etc on this histogram.

[The histogram was obtained by graphing the following function for


integer values of x only.
e2,3 2,3 x
x!

Then the horizontal axis was modified appropriately.]


Application Apple Store 3
If electricity power failures occur according to a Poisson distribution with an
average of 3 failures every twenty weeks, calculate the probability that there
will not be more than one failure during a particular week.

The average number of failures per week is: =

3
20

= 0,15

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