MEEN 4373

Modeling Basic Operations and

Inputs
Instructor: Dr. Hua Li

What Well Do ...

Underlying ideas, methods, and issues in

simulation
Software-independent (setting up for Arena)
Example of a simple processing system

Spreadsheet simulation

Decompose problem
Terminology
Simulation by hand
Some basic statistical issues
Simple static, dynamic models

Overview of a simulation study

The System:
A Simple Processing System
Machine
(Server)
Arriving
Blank Parts

Queue (FIFO)

Departing
Finished Parts
Part in Service

General intent:

Estimate expected production

Waiting time in queue, queue length, proportion of time
machine is busy

Time units

Can use different units in different places must declare

Be careful to check units when specifying inputs
Declare base time units for internal calculations, outputs
Be reasonable (interpretation, roundoff error)

Model Specifics

Initially (time 0) empty and idle

Base time units: minutes
Input data (assume given for now ), in minutes:
Part Number
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
.
.

Arrival Time
0.00
1.73
3.08
3.79
4.41
18.69
19.39
34.91
38.06
39.82
40.82
.
.

Interarrival Time
1.73
1.35
0.71
0.62
14.28
0.70
15.52
3.15
1.76
1.00
.
.
.

Service Time
2.90
1.76
3.39
4.52
4.46
4.36
2.07
3.36
2.37
5.38
.
.
.

Stop when 20 minutes of (simulated) time have

passed

Goals of Study:
Output Performance Measures
Total production of parts over run (P)
Average waiting time of parts in queue:
N

WQi

i =1

N = no. of parts completing queue wait

WQi = waiting time in queue of ith part
Know: WQ1 = 0 (why?)
N > 1 (why?)

Maximum waiting time of parts in queue:

max WQi
i =1,...,N

Goals of Study:
Output Performance Measures (contd.)
Time-average number of parts in queue:
20
0 Q (t ) dt

Q(t) = number of parts in queue

at time t
20
Maximum number of parts in queue: max Q (t )
0t 20
Average and maximum total time in system of
parts (a.k.a. cycle time):
P

TSi

i =1

max TSi

i =1,...,P

TSi = time in system of part i

Goals of Study:
Output Performance Measures (contd.)
Utilization of machine (proportion of time busy)

20

B(t ) dt
20

1
if
machine
is
busy
at
time
t
, B(t ) = 0 if machine is idle at time t

Many others possible (information overload?)

Analysis Options

Educated guessing

Average interarrival time = 4.08 minutes

Average service time = 3.46 minutes
So (on average) parts are being processed faster than they
arrive

System has a chance of operating in a stable way in long run, i.e.,

might not explode
If all interarrivals and service times were exactly at their mean, there
would never be a queue
But data clearly exhibit variability, so a queue could form

If wed had average interarrival < average service time, and

this persisted, then queue would explode
Truth between these extremes
Guessing has its limits

Analysis Options (contd.)

Queueing theory

Requires additional assumptions about model

Popular, simple model: M/M/1 queue

Interarrival times ~ exponential

Service times ~ exponential, indep. of interarrivals
Must have E(service) < E(interarrival)
Steady-state (long-run, forever)
Exact analytic results; e.g., average waiting time in queue is
A = E(interarrival time)
S2
,
S = E(service time)
A S

Problems: validity, estimating means, time frame

Often useful as first-cut approximation

Mechanistic Simulation

Individual operations (arrivals, service times) will

occur exactly as in reality
Movements, changes occur at right times, in
right order
Different pieces interact
Install observers to get output performance
measures
Concrete, brute-force analysis approach
Nothing mysterious or subtle

But a lot of details, bookkeeping

Simulation software keeps track of things for you

Pieces of a Simulation Model

Entities

Players that move around, change status, affect and are

affected by other entities
Dynamic objects get created, move around, leave
(maybe)
Usually represent real things

Our model: entities are parts

Can have fake entities for modeling tricks

Breakdown demon, break angel

Though Arena has built-in ways to model these examples directly

Usually have multiple realizations floating around

Can have different types of entities concurrently
Usually, identifying types of entities is first thing to do in
building model

Pieces of a Simulation Model (contd.)

Attributes

Characteristic of all entities: describe, differentiate

All entities have same attribute slots but different values
for different entities, for example:

Time of arrival
Due date
Priority
Color

Attribute value tied to a specific entity

Like local (to entities) variables
Some automatic in Arena, some you define

Pieces of a Simulation Model (contd.)

(Global) Variables

Reflects a characteristic of whole model, not of specific

entities
Used for many different kinds of things

Travel time between all station pairs

Number of parts in system
Simulation clock (built-in Arena variable)

Name, value of which theres only one copy for whole

model
Not tied to entities
Entities can access, change variables
Writing on wall (rewriteable)
Some built-in by Arena, you can define others

Pieces of a Simulation Model (contd.)

Resources

What entities compete for

Entity seizes a resource, uses it, releases it

Think of a resource being assigned to an entity, rather than
an entity belonging to a resource
A resource can have several units of capacity

People
Equipment
Space

Seats at a table in a restaurant

Identical ticketing agents at an airline counter

Number of units of resource can be changed during

simulation

Pieces of a Simulation Model (contd.)

Queues

Place for entities to wait when they cant move on (maybe

since resource they want to seize is not available)
Have names, often tied to a corresponding resource
Can have a finite capacity to model limited space have
to model what to do if an entity shows up to a queue thats
already full
Usually watch length of a queue, waiting time in it

Pieces of a Simulation Model (contd.)

Statistical accumulators

Variables that watch whats happening

Depend on output performance measures desired
Passive in model dont participate, just watch
Many are automatic in Arena, but some you may have to
set up and maintain during simulation
At end of simulation, used to compute final output
performance measures

Pieces of a Simulation Model (contd.)

Statistical accumulators for simple processing

system

Number of parts produced so far

Total of waiting times spent in queue so far
No. of parts that have gone through queue
Max time in queue weve seen so far
Total of times spent in system
Max time in system weve seen so far
Area so far under queue-length curve Q(t)
Max of Q(t) so far
Area so far under server-busy curve B(t)

Simulation Dynamics:
Event-Scheduling World View
Identify characteristic events
Decide on logic for each type of event to:

Effect state changes for each event type

Observe statistics
Update times of future events (maybe of this type, other
types)

Keep a simulation clock, future event calendar

Jump from one event to the next, process,
observe statistics, update event calendar
Must specify an appropriate stopping rule
Usually done with general-purpose programming
language (C++, Java, Matlab, FORTRAN, etc.)

Events for the

Simple Processing System
Arrival of a new part to system

Update time-persistent statistical accumulators (from last

event to now)

Mark arriving part with current time (use later)

If machine is idle:

Start processing (schedule departure), Make machine busy, Tally

waiting time in queue (0)

Else (machine is busy):

Area under Q(t)

Max of Q(t)
Area under B(t)

Put part at end of queue, increase queue-length variable

Schedule next arrival event

Events for the

Simple Processing System (contd.)
Departure (when a service is completed)

Increment number-produced stat accumulator

Compute & tally time in system (now time of arrival)
Update time-persistent statistics (as in arrival event)
If queue is non-empty:

Take first part out of queue, compute & tally its waiting time in
queue, begin service (schedule departure event)

Else (queue is empty):

Make machine idle (Note: there will be no departure event

scheduled on future events calendar, which is as desired)

Events for the

Simple Processing System (contd.)
The End

Update time-persistent statistics (to end of simulation)

Compute final output performance measures using current
(= final) values of statistical accumulators

After each event, event calendars top record is

removed to see what time it is, what to do
Also must initialize everything

Some Additional Specifics for the

Simple Processing System
Simulation clock variable (internal in Arena)
Event calendar: list of event records:

[Entity No., Event Time, Event Type]

Keep ranked in increasing order on Event Time
Next event always in top record
Initially, schedule first Arrival, The End (Dep.?)

State variables: describe current status

Server status B(t) = 1 for busy, 0 for idle

Number of customers in queue Q(t)
Times of arrival of each customer now in queue (a list of
random length)

Simulation by Hand

Manually track state variables, statistical

accumulators
Use given interarrival, service times
Keep track of event calendar
Lurch clock from one event to next
Will omit times in system, max computations
here (see text for complete details)

Simulation by Hand:
Setup
System

Clock

Number of
completed waiting
times in queue

Total of
waiting times in queue

B(t)

Q(t)

Arrival times of
custs. in queue

Area under
Q(t)

Event calendar

Area under
B(t)

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 0.00, Initialize
System

Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
0

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

0.00

Arrival times of
Event calendar
custs. in queue
[1, 0.00,
Arr]
<empty> [, 20.00,
End]

Total of
waiting times in queue

Area under
Q(t)

Area under
B(t)

0.00

0.00

0.00

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 0.00, Arrival of Part 1
System

1
Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
1

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

Total of
waiting times in queue

Arrival times of
Event calendar
custs. in queue
[2, 1.73,
Arr]
<empty> [1, 2.90,
Dep]
[, 20.00,
End]
Area under
Area under
Q(t)
B(t)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 1.73, Arrival of Part 2
System

Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
1

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

Total of
waiting times in queue

Arrival times of
Event calendar
custs. in queue
[1, 2.90,
Dep]
(1.73) [3, 3.08,
Arr]
[, 20.00,
End]
Area under
Area under
Q(t)
B(t)

1.73

0.00

0.00

1.73

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 2.90, Departure of Part 1
System

2
Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
2

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

Total of
waiting times in queue

Arrival times of
Event calendar
custs. in queue
[3, 3.08,
Arr]
<empty> [2, 4.66,
Dep]
[, 20.00,
End]
Area under
Area under
Q(t)
B(t)

2.90

1.17

1.17

2.90

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 3.08, Arrival of Part 3
System

Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
2

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

Total of
waiting times in queue

Arrival times of
Event calendar
custs. in queue
[4, 3.79,
Arr]
(3.08) [2, 4.66,
Dep]
[, 20.00,
End]
Area under
Area under
Q(t)
B(t)

3.08

1.17

1.17

3.08

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 3.79, Arrival of Part 4
System

Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
2

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

Total of
waiting times in queue

Arrival times of
Event calendar
custs. in queue
[5, 4.41,
Arr]
(3.79, 3.08) [2, 4.66,
Dep]
[, 20.00,
End]
Area under
Area under
Q(t)
B(t)

3.79

1.17

1.88

3.79

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 4.41, Arrival of Part 5
System

Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
2

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

Total of
waiting times in queue

Arrival times of
Event calendar
custs. in queue
[2, 4.66,
Dep]
(4.41, 3.79, 3.08) [6, 18.69,
Arr]
[, 20.00,
End]
Area under
Area under
Q(t)
B(t)

4.41

1.17

3.12

4.41

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 4.66, Departure of Part 2
System

Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
3

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

4.66

Total of
waiting times in queue

Arrival times of
Event calendar
custs. in queue
[3, 8.05,
Dep]
(4.41, 3.79) [6, 18.69,
Arr]
[, 20.00,
End]
Area under
Area under
Q(t)
B(t)

2.75

3.87

4.66

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 8.05, Departure of Part 3
System

Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
4

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

8.05

Total of
waiting times in queue

Arrival times of
Event calendar
custs. in queue
[4, 12.57,
Dep]
(4.41) [6, 18.69,
Arr]
[, 20.00,
End]
Area under
Area under
Q(t)
B(t)

7.01

10.65

8.05

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 12.57, Departure of Part 4
System

5
Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
5

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

12.57

Arrival times of
custs. in queue

Total of
waiting times in queue

Area under
Q(t)

15.17

15.17

Event calendar
[5, 17.03,
Dep]
() [6, 18.69,
Arr]
[, 20.00,
End]
Area under
B(t)
12.57

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 17.03, Departure of Part 5
System

Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
5

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

17.03

Arrival times of
custs. in queue
()

Event calendar
[6, 18.69,
Arr]
[, 20.00,
End]

Total of
waiting times in queue

Area under
Q(t)

Area under
B(t)

15.17

15.17

17.03

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 18.69, Arrival of Part 6
System

6
Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
6

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

18.69

Arrival times of
custs. in queue
()

Total of
waiting times in queue

Area under
Q(t)

Event calendar
[7, 19.39,
Arr]
[, 20.00,
End]
[6, 23.05,
Dep]
Area under
B(t)

15.17

15.17

17.03

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 19.39, Arrival of Part 7
System

Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
6

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

Total of
waiting times in queue

Arrival times of
Event calendar
custs. in queue
[, 20.00,
End]
(19.39) [6, 23.05,
Dep]
[8, 34.91,
Arr]
Area under
Area under
Q(t)
B(t)

19.39

15.17

15.17

17.73

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 20.00, The End
System

Number of
completed waiting
times in queue
6

Clock

B(t)

Q(t)

20.00

Arrival times of
Event calendar
custs. in queue
[6, 23.05,
Dep]
(19.39) [8, 34.91,
Arr]

Total of
waiting times in queue

Area under
Q(t)

Area under
B(t)

15.17

15.78

18.34

Q(t) graph

3
2
1
0

B(t) graph

10

15

20

10

15

20

2
1
0

Interarrival times

Time (Minutes)
1.73, 1.35, 0.71, 0.62, 14.28, 0.70, 15.52, 3.15, 1.76, 1.00, ...

Service times

2.90, 1.76, 3.39, 4.52, 4.46, 4.36, 2.07, 3.36, 2.37, 5.38, ...

Simulation by Hand:
Finishing Up
Average waiting time in queue:
Total of times in queue 15.17
=
= 2.53 minutes per part
No. of times in queue
6

Time-average number in queue:

Area under Q(t ) curve 15.78
=
= 0.79 part
Final clock value
20

Utilization of drill press:

Area under B(t ) curve 18.34
=
= 0.92 (dimension less)
Final clock value
20

Complete Record of the

Hand Simulation

Event-Scheduling Logic via

Programming
Clearly well suited to standard programming

language (C, C++, Java, etc.)

Often use utility libraries for:

List processing
Random-number generation
Random-variate generation
Statistics collection
Event-list and clock management
Summary and output

Main program ties it together, executes events in

order

Simulation Dynamics:
Process-Interaction World View
Identify characteristic entities in system
Multiple copies of entities co-exist, interact,

compete
Code is non-procedural
Tell a story about what happens to a typical
entity
May have many types of entities, fake entities
for things like machine breakdowns
Usually requires special simulation software

Underneath, still executed as event-scheduling

View normally taken by Arena

Arena translates your model description into a program in

SIMAN simulation language for execution

Randomness in Simulation

Above was just one replication a sample of

size one (not worth much)
Made a total of five replications (IID):

Substantial variability
across replications

Confidence intervals for expected values:

In general, X tn 1,1 / 2s / n
(normality assumption?)
For expected total production, 3.80 (2.776)(1.64 / 5 )
3.80 2.04 Precision?

Comparing Alternatives

Usually, simulation is used for more than just a

single model configuration
Often want to compare alternatives, select or
search for best (via some criterion)
Simple processing system: What would happen
if arrival rate doubled?

Cut interarrival times in half

Rerun model for double-time arrivals
Make five replications

Results: Original vs. Double-Time

Arrivals
Original circles
Double-time triangles
Replication 1 filled in
Replications 2-5 hollow
Note variability
Danger of making decisions

based on one (first)

replication
Hard to see if there are
really differences
Need: Statistical analysis
of simulation output data

Simulating with Spreadsheets:

Introduction
Popular, ubiquitous tool
Can use for simple simulation models

Typically, only static models

Risk analysis, financial/investment scenarios

Only (very) simplest of dynamic models

Two examples

Newsvendor problem (static)

Waiting times in single-server queue (dynamic)

Special recursion valid only in this case

Simulating with Spreadsheets:

Newsvendor Problem Setup
Rupert sells daily newspapers on street

Each morning, Rupert buys q copies

X ~ normal ( = 135.7, = 27.1), from historical data

X rounds X to nearest integer

If D q, satisfy all demand, and q D 0 left over,

sell for scrap at s = $0.03 each
If D > q, sells out (sells all q copies), no scrap

q is a fixed number, same every day

Demand during a day: D = max (X, 0)

Rupert buys for c = $0.55 each, sells for r = $1.00 each

But missed out on D q > 0 sales

What should q be?

Simulating with Spreadsheets:

Newsvendor Problem Formulation
Choose q to maximize expected profit per day

Classic operations-research problem

q too small sell out, miss $0.45 profit per paper

q too big have left over, scrap at a loss of $0.52 per paper
Many versions, variants, extensions, applications
Much research on exact solution in certain cases
But easy to simulate, even in a spreadsheet

Profit in a day, as a function of q:

W(q) = r min (D, q) + s max (q D, 0) cq
Sales revenue

Scrap revenue

Cost

W(q) is a random variable profit varies from day to day

Maximize E(W(q)) over nonnegative integers q

Simulating with Spreadsheets:

Newsvendor Problem Simulation
Set trial value of q, generate demand D, compute
profit for that day

Then repeat this for many days independently, average to

estimate E(W(q))

Also get confidence interval, estimate of P(loss), histogram of W(q)

Try for a range of values of q

Need to generate demand D = max (X, 0)

So need to generate X ~ normal ( = 135.7, = 27.1)

(Much) ahead Sec. 12.2, generating random variates
In this case, generate X = -1,(U)
U is a random number distributed uniformly on [0, 1] (Sec. 12.1)
, is cumulative distribution function of normal (, ) distribution

Simulating with Spreadsheets:

Newsvendor Problem Excel
All files in book: www.mhhe.com/kelton,
File Newsvendor.xls
Student Edition, BookExamples.zip
Input parameters in cells B4 B8 (blue)
Trial values for q in row 2 (pink)
Day number (1, 2, ..., 30) in column D
Demands in column E for each day:
= MAX(ROUND(NORMINV(RAND(), $B$7, $B$8), 0), 0)
Rounding
function
RAND() is volatile
so regenerates on
any edit, or F9 key

-1

U(0, 1)
random number

X ~ normal (, )
$ pins down following
column or row when
copying formula

Round to
nearest
integer

MAX 2nd
argument

Simulating with Spreadsheets:

Newsvendor Problem Excel (contd.)
For each q:

Sold column: number of papers sold that day

Scrap column: number of papers scrapped that day
Profit column: profit (+, , 0) that day
Placement of $ in formulas to facilitate copying

At bottom of Profit columns (green):

Average profit over 30 days

Half-width of 95% confidence interval on E(W(q))

Estimate of P(W(q) < 0)

Value 2.045 is upper 0.975 critical point of t distribution with 29 d.f.

Plot confidence intervals as I-beams on left edge
Uses COUNTIF function

Histograms of W(q) at bottom

Vertical red line at 0, separates profits, losses

Simulating with Spreadsheets:

Newsvendor Problem Results
Fine point used same daily demands (column E)
for each day, across all trial values of q

Would have been valid to generate them independently

Why is it better to use same demands for all q?

Results

Best q is about 140, maybe a little less

Randomness in all results (tap F9 key)

All demands, profits, graphics change

Confidence-interval, histogram plots change
Reminder that these are random outputs, random plots

Higher q more variability in profit

Histograms at bottom are wider for larger q

Higher chance of both large profits, but higher chance of loss, too
Risk/return tradeoff can be quantified risk taker vs. risk-averse

Simulating with Spreadsheets:

Single-Server Queue Setup
Like hand simulation, but:

Interarrival times ~ exponential with mean 1/ = 1.6 min.

Service times ~ uniform on [a, b] = [0.27, 2.29] min.
Stop when 50th waiting time in queue is observed

Watch waiting times in queue WQ1, WQ2, ..., WQ50

i.e., when 50th customer begins service, not exits system

Important not watching anything else, unlike before

Si = service time of customer i,

Ai = interarrival time between custs. i 1 and i
Lindleys recursion (1952): Initialize WQ1 = 0,
WQi = max (WQi 1 + Si 1 Ai, 0), i = 2, 3, ...

Simulating with Spreadsheets:

Single-Server Queue Simulation
Need to generate random variates: let U ~ U[0, 1]

Ai = (1/) ln(1 U)
Si = a + (b a) U

All files in book: www.mhhe.com/kelton,

File MU1.xls
Student Edition, BookExamples.zip
Input parameters in cells B4 B6 (blue)

Exponential (mean 1/):

Uniform on [a, b]:

Some theoretical outputs in cells B8 B10

Customer number (i = 1, 2, ..., 50) in column D

Five IID replications (three columns for each)

IA = interarrival times, S = service times

WQ = waiting times in queue (plot, thin curves)

First one initialized to 0, remainder use Lindleys recursion

Curves rise from 0, variation increases toward right

Creates positive autocorrelation down WQ columns

Curves have less abrupt jumps than if WQis were independent

Simulating with Spreadsheets:

Single-Server Queue Results
Column averages (green)

Average interarrival, service times close to expectations

Average WQi within each replication

Cross-replication (by customer) averages (green)

Not too far from steady-state expectation

Considerable variation
Many are below it (why?)

Column T, thick line in plot to dampen noise

Why no sample variance, histograms of WQis?

Could have computed both, as in newsvendor; two issues:

Nonstationarity what is a typical WQi here?

Autocorrelation biases variance estimate, may bias histogram if
run is not long enough

Simulating with Spreadsheets:

Recap
Popular for static models

Add-ins @RISK, Crystal Ball

Inadequate tool for dynamic simulations if theres

any complexity

Extremely easy to simulate single-server queue in Arena

Chapter 3 main example
Can build very complex dynamic models with Arena most
of rest of book

Overview of a Simulation Study

Understand system
Be clear about goals
Formulate model representation
Translate into modeling software
Verify program
Validate model
Design experiments
Make runs
Analyze, get insight, document results
More: Chapter 13

What Well Do ...

Start Arena
Load, explore, run an existing model

Basically same as hand simulation in Chapter 2

Browse dialogs and menus
Run model
Look at results

Construct same model from scratch

Use just these basic building blocks in case
study to address real operational question
Tour menus, toolbars, drawing, printing
Help system
Options for running and control

Behavior of Arena

Arena is a true Windows application

Appearance, operation, functions, are standard

Interoperability with other software (MS Office, CAD)
Interact, communicate with other software (Chapter 10)

Assume you already know basics of Windows:

Disks, files, folders, paths

Mousing, keyboarding
Resizing, moving, maximizing, minimizing windows
Menu operations
Ctrl, Alt, Shift keys
Cut, copy, paste
Filling out dialog fields

Starting Up

Installing Arena Appendix D

Locate icon or shortcut; double-click

See File, View, Tools, Help menus

Other menus present if a model file is open

Toolbars with buttons

Or, Start > All Programs > Rockwell Software > Arena > Arena
Licensed Mode vs. Training/Evaluation Mode (STUDENT)

Unless a model file is open, only New model file, Open

model file, Template Attach/Detach, Context Help (click it,
then click on buttons or menu items)

Tooltips roll over toolbar buttons for names

Quitting Arena: File > Exit, Alt+F4, or top right

Opening an Existing Model

File > Open or

button

Why the .doe default filename

extension for Arena models?

Navigate to desired disk/directory

Click > Open or double-click Model 03-01.doe
Book example models: www.mhhe.com/kelton,
Student Edition, BookExamples.zip, put where you want
More examples (typical location on Windows 7):
C:\Users\Public\Public Documents\Rockwell Software\Arena\Examples

Model window (right side of Arena window)

Where model is built

Resize, maximize, minimize, scroll/pan, zoom
Can have multiple model windows open at once

Cut, Copy, Paste within Arena, and between

Arena and other applications (when sensible)

Flowchart and Spreadsheet Views

Model window split into two views

Flowchart view

Spreadsheet view

Graphics
Process flowchart
Animation, drawing
Edit things by double-clicking on them, get into a dialog
Displays model data directly
Can edit, add, delete data in spreadsheet view
Displays all similar kinds of modeling elements at once

Many model parameters can be edited in either view

Horizontal splitter bar to apportion two views
View > Split Screen (or push ) to see both flowchart and
spreadsheet views (otherwise, only get view for active
module type)

Project Bar

Usually down left edge of Arena window

Hosts panels with modeling building blocks:
modules

Displays one panel at a time

Both flowchart and spreadsheet modules

Switch to different panels via horizontal buttons
Panels for Basic Process, Reports (after running), Navigate
(to different views within a model or to different hierarchical
submodels, thumbnail), others can be attached
(Template Attach button
) for different modeling levels,
specialties

Usually docked to left edge but can move, float

Hide it via View > Project Bar or its own small

Status Bar

At very bottom of Arena window

Displays various information sensitive to status

Coordinates of cursor in worldspace

When simulation is running:

Simulation clock value

Replication number being executed
Number of replications to be done

Hide by clearing (unchecking) View > Status Bar

Moving Around, Up, Down

in Flowchart View of Model Window
Underlying world space for model

Pan with scroll bars, arrow keys, thumbnail

Zoom in (down):
or + key or thumbnail
Zoom out (up):
or key or thumbnail
See all at min altitude: or * key To navigate via keyboard,
flowchart view of model window
Named views
must be active ... click in it.

(x, y) coordinates, arbitrary units (32K in all directions)

Save a pan/zoom view for different parts of model

Assign a Hot key (case-sensitive)
Access via View > Named Views or ? key or

Display grid (
), snap to grid (
) toggles
Rulers, alignment, guides, glue see text

Modules

Basic building blocks of simulation model

Two basic types: flowchart and data
Different types of modules for different actions,
specifications
Blank modules: on Project Bar

Add a flowchart module to model: drag it from Project Bar

into flowchart view of model window

Can have many instances of same kind of flowchart module in

model

Use a data module: select it (single-click) in Project Bar,

edit in spreadsheet view of model window

Only one instance of each kind of data module in model, but it can
have many entries (rows) in spreadsheet view
Can edit via dialog double-click on number in leftmost column

Flowchart Modules

Describe dynamic processes

Basic Process panel flowchart module types:

Nodes/places through which entities flow

Typically connected to each other in some way
Create, Dispose, Process, Decide, Batch, Separate,
Assign, Record

Other panels many other kinds

Shape like flowcharting (later, colors for hints)
Two ways to edit

Double-click to open up, then fill out dialogs

Select (single-click) a module type in model or Project Bar,
get all modules of that type in spreadsheet view

Data Modules

Set values, conditions, etc. for whole model

Basic Process panel data module types:

Attribute, Entity, Queue, Resource, Variable, Schedule, Set

Other panels many other kinds

Icons in Project Bar look like little spreadsheets
To use a data module, select it (single-click) in
Project Bar, edit in spreadsheet view

No entity flow, no connections

Can edit via dialog double-click in leftmost column, or

right-click and select Edit via Dialog
Double-click where indicated to add new row
Right-click on row, column to do different things

At most one instance of each kind of data module

in a model

But each one can have many entries (rows)

Relations Among Modules

Flowchart, data modules related via names for

objects

Arena keeps internal lists of different kinds of

names

Queues, Resources, Entity types, Variables, Expressions,

Sets, many others

Presents existing lists to you where appropriate

Helps you remember names, protects you from typos

All names you make up in a model must be

unique across model, even across different types
of modules

Internal Model Documentation

Data Tips on modules, graphics hover mouse

over object to see

Default part generic info on object (name, type)

User-specified part right-click on object, select Properties,
enter text under Description
Toggle display of Data tips via View > Data Tips

Project Description Run > Setup > Project

Parameters, enter text under Project Description
Model Documentation Report Tools > Model
Documentation Report

Generates HTML file with model details (can choose which

kinds of details to include)

Browsing Through Model 3-1

Open Model 03-01.doe, Book Examples folder

Three flowchart modules

Create, Process, Dispose

Entries in three data modules

www.mhhe.com/kelton, Student Edition, BookExamples.zip,

unzip and put folder where you want on your system

Entity, Queue, Resource

Animation objects

Resource animation
Two plots
Some (passive) labels, art work

Create Flowchart Module

Birth node for entities

Gave this instance of Create-type module the
Name Part Arrives to System

If we had other Create modules (we dont) theyd all have

different Names

Double-click on module to open property dialog:

Create Flowchart Module (contd.)

Name for module (type it in, overriding default)

Entity Type enter descriptive name

Time Between Arrivals area

Can have multiple Entity Types with distinct names

Specify nature of time separating consecutive arrivals
Type pull-down list, several options
Value depends on Type for Random (Expo) is mean
Units time units for Value

Entities per Arrival constant, random variable,

very general Expression (more later )
Max Arrivals choke off arrivals (from here) after
this many arrivals (batches, not entities)
First Creation time of first arrival (need not be 0)

Editing Flowchart Modules in

Spreadsheet View
Alternative to dialog for each instance of a

module type
See all instances of a module type at once

Convenient for seeing, editing many things at once

Selecting a module in either flowchart or

spreadsheet view also selects it in the other view
Click, double-click fields to view, edit
Right-click in row to Edit via Dialog, define user
Data Tip (via Properties)
Right-click in expression fields to get Expression
Builder for help in constructing complex
expressions with Arena variables (more later )

Entity Data Module

A data module, so edit in spreadsheet view only

View, edit aspects of different entity Types in
your model (we have just one entity Type, Part)

Pull-down lists activated as you select fields

Our only edit Initial Picture for animation

Picked Picture.Blue Ball from default list

Menu option Edit > Entity Pictures ... to see, modify

Process Flowchart Module

Represents machine, including:

Resource
Queue
Entity delay time (processing)

Enter Name Drilling Center

Type picked Standard to define logic here
rather than in a submodel (more later )
Report Statistics check box at bottom

To get utilizations, queue lengths, queue waiting times, etc.

Process Flowchart Module (contd.)

Logic area what happens to entities here

Action

Seize Delay Release entity Seizes some number of units of a Resource

(maybe after a wait in queue), Delay itself there for processing time, then
Release units of Resource it had Seized chose this option
Delay entity (red traffic light) no Resources or queueing, just sit here for a time duration
Seize Delay (no Release presumably Release downstream)
Delay Release (if Resource had been Seized upstream)

Priority for seizing lower numbers higher priority

Different Action choices could allow stringing together several Process
modules for modeling flexibility

Resources define Resource(s) to be seized, released

Double-click on row to open subdialog

Define Resource Name, Quantity of units to be Seized/Released here
Not where you say there are multiple Resource units ... do that in Resource data module

Several Resources present (Add) entities must first Seize all

Process Flowchart Module (contd.)

Delay Type choice of probability distributions,

constant or general Expression (more later )
Units time units for delay (dont ignore)
Allocation how to charge delay in costing
(more later )
Prompts on next line change depending on
choice of Delay Type specify numerical
parameters involved
Can also edit in spreadsheet view

Subdialogs (e.g., Resource here) become secondary

spreadsheets that pop up, must be closed

Resource Data Module

Defining Drill Press Resource in Process

module automatically creates entry (row) for it in
Resource data module
Can edit it here for more options

Type could vary capacity Based on Schedule instead of

having a Fixed Capacity

Would define Schedule in Schedule data module later

Capacity (if Type = Capacity) is number of units of this

resource that exist
Failures cause resource to fail according to some pattern

Define this pattern via Failure data module (Advanced Process

panel) later

Queue Data Module

Specify aspects of queues in model

Type specifies queue discipline or ranking rule

We only have one, named Drilling Center.Queue

(default name, given Process module name)
If Lowest or Highest Attribute Value, then another field
appears where you specify which attribute to use

Shared if this queue will be shared among

several resources (later )
Report Statistics check for automatic collection
and reporting of queue length, time in queue

Animating Resources and Queues

Got queue animation

automatically by
specifying a Seize in Process module

Entity pictures (blue balls) line up here in animation

Dont get Resource animation automatically

To add it, use Resource button in Animate toolbar get

Resource Picture Placement dialog

Identifier link to Resource name in pull-down list

Specify different pictures for Idle, Busy states
For pre-defined art work, Open a picture library (.plb filename extension)
Scroll up/down on right, select (single-click) a picture on right, select Idle or
Busy state on left, then
to copy picture

To edit later, double-click on picture in flowchart view

Dispose Flowchart Module

Represents entities leaving model boundaries

Name the module
Decide on Record Entity Statistics (average,
maximum time in system of entities exiting here,
costing information)
Check boxes for statistics collection and reporting:
Most are checked (turned on) by default
Little or no modeling effort to say yes to these
But in some models can slow execution markedly
Moral if you have speed problems, clear these if you dont care

Connecting Flowchart Modules

Establish (fixed) sequence of flowchart modules

through which entities flow
To make a connection

Connect (Object > Connect), cursor becomes cross hairs

Click on exit point
from source module, then entry point
on destination module

Green, red boxes light up to aid in hitting exit, entry points

Intermediate clicks for non-straight line in segments

To make many connections

After each connection, right-click in blank space, select

Repeat Last Action from pop-up menu
Or, double-click on , place multiple connections (no rightclick needed), right-click or Esc to end

Connecting Flowchart Modules (contd.)

Object menu toggles

Auto-Connect automatically connect entry point of newly

placed module from exit point of selected module
Smart Connect force segments to horizontal/vertical

Makes for a tidy-looking flowchart, but has the disadvantage that it

can cause connection lines to be directly on top of each other,
making it impossible to tell them apart

Animate Connectors show entity moves along connectors

(zero time for statistics collection), for verification

Move entry/exit points relative to their module

Right-click on entry/exit point

Select Allow Move from pop-up
Drag entry/exit point around

Dynamic Plots

Trace variables (e.g., queue lengths) as

simulation runs data animation
Disappear after run ends

To keep, save data, postprocess in Output Analyzer ... later

Plot button

from Animate toolbar

Six tabs across top; many options (best just to explore)

Data Series tab click Add button for each curve to be
plotted on same set of axes

In right Properties area, enter Name, define Expression

Pull down Build Expression, + Basic Process Variables, + Queue, Current
Number in Queue, select Drilling Center.Queue in Queue Name field pulldown, note Current Expression NQ(Drilling Center.Queue) automatically
filled in at bottom, OK button to copy this expression back out

DrawMode Stairs or PointToPoint

Line/fill color, vertical-axis on left/right

Note automatic context-sensitive

mini Help window on right

Dynamic Plots (contd.)

Axes tab choose Time (X) Axis on left

Axes tab choose Left Value (Y) Axis on left

X axis is always simulated time

Scale area on right (+ to open it) specify Min/Max,
MajorIncrement, AutoScroll (windows axis during simulation)
Title on right type in Text (mention units!), set Visible to True
Note possibility for a different right Y axis scale for multiple curves
Scale area on right specify Min/Max, MajorIncrement, usually
leave AutoScaleMaximum at True so Y axis scale will automatically
adjust to contain whole plot during run
Title on right

Legend tab clear Show Legend box since we have only

one curve, and Y axis is labeled
Other tabs Titles, Areas, 3-D View ... just explore

Drop plot in via crosshairs (resize, move later)

Dressing Things Up

Add drawing objects from Draw toolbar

Similar to other drawing, CAD packages

Object-oriented drawing tools (layers, etc.), not just a paint
tool

Add Text to annotate

Control font, size, color, orientation

Setting Run Conditions

Run > Setup menu dialog seven tabs

Project Parameters Title, Name, Project Description, stats

Replication Parameters

Number of Replications
Initialization options Between Replications
Start Date/Time to associate with start of simulation
Warm-up Period (when statistics are cleared)
Replication Length (and Time Units)
Hours per Day (convenience for 16-hour days, etc.)
Base Time Units (output measures, internal computations, units
where not specified in dialog, e.g. Plot X Axis time units)
Terminating Condition (complex stopping rules)

Tabs for run speed, run control, reports, array sizes, visuals
Terminating your simulation:
You must specify part of modeling
Arena has no default termination
If you dont specify termination, Arena will usually keep running forever

Running It

Plain-vanilla run: Click

from Standard toolbar
(like audio/video players)

First time or after changes: Check

Enters run mode can move around but not edit
Speed up or slow down animation display via slider bar

Or tap > on keyboard to speed up, < to slow down

When done, asked if you want to see summary reports

Click
to get out of run mode (cant edit until you do)
Can pause run with or Esc key

Other run control, viewing, checking options

Viewing Reports

Click Yes in Arena box at end of run

Default installation shows Category Overview

report summarizes many things about run

Opens new reports window (separate from model window)

inside Arena window
Project Bar shows Reports panel, different reports (each
one would be a new window)
Remember to close all reports windows before future runs

Reports have pages to browse (

and
)
Also, table contents tree at left for quick jumps via

Times are in Base Time Units for model

Viewing Reports Examples

Entity Time Total Time Part:

Avg. time in system was 6.4397 min., max was 12.6185

Resource Usage Instantaneous Utilization

Drill Press:

Utilization was 0.9171 (busy 91.71% of the time)

Process Other Number In Drilling Center:
During run, 7 parts entered Drilling Center
Process Other Number Out Drilling Center:
5 entities left Drilling Center (so were produced)

Entity Time Wait Time Part:

Avg. wait time in all queues was 3.0340 min. (counts only
entities that left the system, but Queue Time Waiting
Time Drilling Center.Queue counts all entities that left
this queue, so these results can differ)
Entity Other Wip Part:
Average Work in Process was 1.7060, max WIP was 4

Types of Statistics Reported

Many output statistics are one of three types:

Tally avg., max, min of a discrete list of numbers

Time-persistent time-average, max, min of a plot of

something where x-axis is continuous time

Used for discrete-time output processes like waiting times in queue,

total times in system

Used for continuous-time output processes like queue lengths, WIP,

server-busy functions (for utilizations)

Counter accumulated sums of something, usually just

nose counts of how many times something happened

Often used to count entities passing through a point in model

More on Reports and their Files

Reports we just saw based on MS Access .mdb

database that Arena actually writes as it runs

.mdb file is saved and can be viewed later

Viewing within Arena via SAP Crystal Reports to query
Access database, produce reports like Category Overview

Arena also produces a plain-text summary report

(.out filename extension)

Previous versions of Arena, underlying SIMAN language

Fairly cryptic, but gives quick view of lots of output data

Also contains a few things not in Access/Crystal Reports

Multiple reports for multiple replications

Half Width columns 95% confidence intervals

on outputs in long-run simulations later

Build It Yourself

Build same model from scratch details in text

Handy user-interface tricks:

Right-click in an empty spot in flowchart view small box of

options, including Repeat Last Action useful in repetitive
editing like placing lots of same module type
Ctrl+D or Ins key duplicates whatevers selected in
flowchart view, offsetting it a bit drag elsewhere, edit

Open new (blank) model window name it, save

it, maybe maximize it
Attach modeling panels youll need to Project Bar
if not there

Build It Yourself (contd.)

Place, connect flowchart modules

Edit flowchart, data modules as needed

Experiment with Expression Builder right-click in

expression field

Add plots, animation, artwork

Add named views (? key or View > Named Views
or ), with hot key (case-sensitive)
Edit Run > Setup dialog
Displays in text

Compact way of saying what needs to be done in a dialog

Omits Arena defaults
Shows completed dialogs, table of actions needed

Displays for Create, Process, Dispose

Modules

Display for Queue-Length Plot

Axes tab showing here ...

Figure 3-14 in book shows Data Series tab

Case Study: Specialized Serial vs.

Generalized Parallel Processing
Loan applications go through four steps

Check credit, prepare covenant, price loan, disburse funds

Each step takes expo (1 hour)
Applications arrive with expo (1.25 hour) interarrival times

First application arrives at time 0

Run for 160 hours

Watch avg, max no. applications in process (WIP);
avg, max total time in system of applications
Four employees, each can do any process step

Serial specialized processing or generalized

parallel processing?

Whats the effect of service-time variability on decision?

Case Study: Model 3-2,

Specialized Serial Processing
Bettys now idle but Chuck
and Doris are overloaded
wasted capacity?

File Model 03-02.doe

All files in book: www.mhhe.com/kelton,

Student Edition, BookExamples.zip

Create module similar to Model 3-1 except expo

mean, time units

Set Entity Type to Application

Case Study: Model 3-2,

Specialized Serial Processing (contd.)
Four Process modules similar to Model 3-1

Dispose module similar to Model 3-1

Default entity picture (report) is OK
Default Resource animations almost OK

Make Idle picture same as Busy

Select correct Resource name in Identifier field

Queue, Resource data modules OK

Plot WIP use Expression builder to find
EntitiesWIP(Application)

Four separate Resources

Expo process time: Expression (via Expression Builder)

Fixed Y axis max = 25 to compare with next three models

Fill in Run > Setup, lengthen queue animations

Case Study: Model 3-3,

Generalized Parallel Processing

Only one place to queue,

but processing times are
longer sum of four IID
expo (1 hour) times

File Model 03-03.doe

Create, Dispose, plot, Run > Setup almost same

Just change some labels, etc.

Case Study: Model 3-3,

Generalized Parallel Processing (contd.)
Replace four earlier Process modules with just a
single Process module

One Resource (Loan Officer), but four units of it

Still set Quantity to 1 since application just needs 1 officer
Delay type Expression
EXPO(1) + EXPO(1) + EXPO(1) + EXPO(1)

Why not 4*EXPO(1)?

Modify Resource Animation for four units

Open Model 3-2 Resource Animation to get Resource

Picture Placement window, open Idle picture
Duplicate white square three times, realign; copy to Busy
In model window, double-click Seize Area, then Add three
Still not completely accurate animation (order) need Sets

Case Study:
Compare Model 3-2 vs. 3-3

Caution: This is from only one replication of each

configuration, so theres output variability

Are differences statistically significant? (Exercise 6-19)

Case Study:
Effect of Task-Time Variability
Is parallel always better than serial under any
conditions?

Many aspects could matter

Focus on task-time variability

Now, each task time ~ expo (1 hour)

Highly variable distribution

P(task time < 10 minutes) = 0.15
P(task time > 2 hours) = 0.14

In serial config., just one large task time congests greatly

See text

In parallel config. it would also congest, but probably not by as

much since other three tasks are probably not all large too

Other extreme each task time is exactly 1 hour

Leave interarrival times as expo (1.25 hours)

Models 3-4 (serial), 3-5 (parallel) alter Process modules

Case Study:
Effect of Task-Time Variability (contd.)

For constant service, parallel improvement

appears minor

Maybe not even statistically significant (Exercise 6-19)

Some further questions

In parallel, work is integrated/generalized, so would it be

slower per task? (Exercises 3-13, 6-20)
Effect of worker breaks? (Chapters 4, 5)
Differences statistically significant? (Exercises 6-19, 6-20)

More on Menus File Menu

Model-file management
Template attach/detach
DXF import (from CAD packages), Visio import
Color palettes
Printing
Send (e-mail) open model file
Recent models
Exit from Arena

Edit Menu

Undo/Redo
Cut/Copy/Paste
Paste Link (create OLE link)
Duplicate, Delete selection
Select/Deselect All
Entity Pictures change content, definition of
pictures presented in Entity data module
Find searches all modules, animation objects
for a text string useful for finding wrong
names, typos after an error message from Arena

Edit Menu (contd.)

Replace replaces all instances of a text string

with another text string
Properties display internal Arena object
properties
Links to link to other files (spreadsheets,
sounds, etc.)
Insert New Object/Control from other
applications (e.g., graphics, VBA, ActiveX)
Object edit object imported from another
application

View Menu

Zooming discussed before

Views canned Arena views of flowchart view

Named Views define, change, use views
Rulers, Grid, Guides, Snap, Glue align objects

Zoom Factor step size when zooming

Page breaks shows page breaks if printed

Data Tips toggles display of Data Tips

Connector Arrows show entity-flow direction
Layers which objects show up in which mode

View Menu (contd.)

Split Screen if checked, shows both flowchart,

spreadsheet views
Runtime Elements Bar if checked, displays
window allowing choice of what is displayed
during execution
Toolbars decide which toolbars show up
Project/Status Bar toggle to show up or not
Debug Bar if checked, displays window of
debugging tools during run

Tools Menu

Arena NewsFlash internet feed for updates, etc.

Arena Symbol Factory make animation symbols
Separate applications for modeling, analysis

Input Analyzer fit probability distributions for input, using

field-collected data more in Chapt. 4
Process Analyzer run, compare many scenarios at once
more in Chapt. 6

Also Output Analyzer not on menus ... start from Start menu

Visual Designer for 3D animation, etc.

Expression Builder very useful tool (described earlier)

ReportDatabase export results to CSV file

Model Documentation Report generate HTML
file with many details of this model

Tools Menu (contd.)

Import/Export model to/from Database bring in,

save model details to Excel or Access
OptQuest for Arena separate application that
takes over running of model to search for an
optimal scenario more in Chapt. 6
AVI Capture record actions (editing, animation)
to .avi file for playback
Macro create Visual Basic macros (mini
programs), VB editor ... more in Chapter 10
Module count reports module instances
Options control many aspects of how Arena
works, looks

Arrange Menu

For modeling, graphics objects first select

object(s)
Bring object to Front, Send to Back stacking
Group, Ungroup objects (move together, etc.)
Flip around Vertical, Horizontal line
Rotate object (90 clockwise)
Align objects on top, bottom, left, or right edges
Distribute objects evenly (horizontally, vertically)
Flowchart Alignment arrange flowchart modules
(horizontally, vertically)
Snap Object to Grid for selected object(s)
Change Object Snap Point on snapped object

Object Menu

Connect tool changes cursor to cross hairs

Auto-Connect new module to selected module

Smart Connect new connections in
horizontal/vertical segments only
Animate Connectors show entities moving (at
infinite speed for statistics collection)
Animate At Desktop Color Depth use desktop
color depth (could slow run)

Hit twice for repeated connections, right-click or Esc to exit

If not checked, color is 8-bit (256 colors), runs faster

Submodel define, manage hierarchical

submodels, useful for large, complex models

Run Menu

Setup control model run conditions

Entries to run, check, pause, step through
Alternatives to watch execution, view results (or
errors)
Control how run goes and is displayed
Most capabilities on Run Interaction Toolbar
details later
Access code in underlying SIMAN simulation
language

Window Menu

Cascade, Tile multiple open model windows

Arrange Icons for any minimized model windows
Use system Background Color use Windows
colors rather than Arena settings
List of open model windows

Help Menu

One of several ways to get into Help system

Arena Help TOC, Index, Search
Whats This? adds ? to cursor, then click on
things for brief description
Release notes recent changes, requirements
Arena Smart Files subject-based index to many
small but complete models that illustrate specific
modeling techniques (very useful)
List of attached modeling panels select to get
Help on that one

Help Menu (contd.)

Arena Product Manuals detailed PDF reference

documents on Arena components
Activation for licensing
Copy protection information for commercial,
research, and lab versions
About Arena... version number, licensing
information, etc.

More on Toolbars

Collections of buttons for frequent operations

Most are duplication of menu entries

Standard, Draw, Animate, Integration, View, Arrange, Run
Interaction, Record Macro, AVI Capture, Animate Transfer,
Dialog Design, Project/Status/Debug Bars

View > Toolbars (or right-click in a toolbar area)

to decide which ones show up, which to hide
Toolbars can be torn off (floating palettes), or
docked to an edge of screen
Arena remembers Toolbars for next time
View > Toolbars > Customize to alter how
toolbars and buttons are displayed
See text for run-through description of toolbars
and buttons (or, just experiment)

More on Drawing

Draw via toolbar buttons only (no menus):

0

Line, Polyline (Shift for 45 ), Arc, Bzier Curve

Box, Polygon, Ellipse (fill, line, shade)
Text (font, size, style)
Colors for Lines, Fill, Text, Window Background
Line Width, Style, Arrow Style, Pattern
Show Dimensions shows sizes, lengths for
precise drawing
Best way to learn: play around on scratch model

Printing

Print all or parts of flowchart view of active model

window supports color
Usual Print, Print Preview, Print Setup (File menu)
Could consume many pages also prints named
views separately

Print Preview, select only what you want for printing

View > Page Breaks to show how pages will break

Alternative to printing from Arena: Windows
Snipping Tool or PrintScreen key sends screen
to clipboard, paste into another application

Alt+PrintScreen sends only active window to clipboard

Could first pass through a paint application to crop, etc.

Help!

Extensive, comprehensive online system

including complete (electronic) manuals

Interlinked via hypertext for cross referencing

Multiple entry points, including Help menu
(described above), links to websites

button for context-sensitive help

Click it, then click what youre curious about

button in most dialogs

button (Whats This?) in dialogs for info on
things in that dialog

Help! (contd.)

Tooltips roll over something, get sticky note

SMART library small models illustrating points
subject index via Help > Arena Smart Files

See the Help entry for location of files on your system

Typical location on Windows 7:

C:\Users\Public\Public Documents\Rockwell Software\Arena\Smarts

Online Help
http://www.rockwellautomation.com/support

Examples folder several detailed, complete

examples, some fairly complex

Typical location on Windows 7:

C:\Users\Public\Public Documents\Rockwell Software\Arena\Examples

More on Running Models

Run Menu; Standard & Run Interaction toolbars

Run > Setup many options to control run

These are attached to model, and are not global

Run > Go
run simulation normally
(depends on selections from Run > Run Control
and Tools > Options > Run Control)
Run > Step
one step at a time (verify,
debug)
Run > Fast-Forward
disable animation
(faster)
Run > Pause
(or Esc key) freeze run, resume
with Go
Run > Start Over
go back to beginning of
simulation

More on Running Models (contd.)

Run > End

get out of run mode
Run > Check Model
like compiling
Run > Review Errors for most recent Check
Run > Run Control > Command
bring up
interactive command-line window to control run
Run > Run Control > Breakpoints
set times,
conditions to interrupt for checks, illustration
Run > Run Control > Watch
bring up a
window to watch a variable or expression during
run

More on Running Models (contd.)

Run > Run Control > Break on Module

set/clear break when an entity enters or resumes

activity on a module
Run > Run Control > Highlight Active Module
highlight flowchart module being executed
Run > Run Control > Batch Run (No Animation)
run model with no animation this is even faster
than Fast-Forward usually used for
production runs for statistical analysis
Run > SIMAN view or write model (.mod) and
experiment (.exp) files for underlying SIMAN
model

What Well Do ...

Model 4-1: Electronic assembly/test system

Model 4-2: Enhanced electronic assembly/test

Modeling approaches
New Arena modules (Decide, Record)
Resource Schedules, States, and Failures
Frequency outputs
More on utilizations

Model 4-3: Enhancing the animation

Queues, Entity Pictures, Resource Pictures

Adding Plots and Variables

What Well Do ... (contd.)

Model 4-4: Adding entity travel times

Stations, Transfers, Routes, animation of entity movement

Finding and fixing model errors

Input analysis

Specifying input distributions, parameters

Deterministic vs. random input
Collecting and using data
Fitting input distributions via Arena Input Analyzer
No data?
Nonstationary arrival processes
Multivariate and correlated input data

Electronic Assembly/Test System

(Model 4-1)

Produce two different sealed elect. units (A, B)

Arriving parts: cast metal cases machined to
accept electronic parts
Part A, Part B separate prep areas
Both go to Sealer for assembly, testing then to
Shipping (out) if OK, or else to Rework
Rework Salvaged (and Shipped), or Scrapped

Part A

Interarrivals: expo (5) min.

From arrival point, go immediately to Part A Prep

Go immediately to Sealer

Process = (machine + deburr + clean) ~ tria (1, 4, 8) min.

Process = (assemble + test) ~ tria (1, 3, 4) min.
91% pass (i.e, 0.91 probability independently for each part),
go to Shipped; Else go to Rework

Rework: (re-process + testing) ~ expo (45) min.

80% pass (i.e, 0.80 probability independently for each part),

go to Salvaged; Else go to Scrapped

Part B

Interarrivals: batches of 4, expo (30) min.

Upon arrival, batch breaks into 4 individual parts
Proceed immediately to Part B Prep area

Go to Sealer

Process = (machine + deburr +clean) ~ tria (3, 5, 10)

Process = (assemble + test) ~ weib (2.5, 5.3) min. ,
different from Part A, though at same station
91% pass, go to Shipped; Else go to Rework

Rework: (re-process + test) = expo (45) min.

80% pass (i.e, 0.80 probability independently for each part),

go to Salvaged; Else go to Scrapped

Run Conditions, Output

Start empty & idle, run for 32 hours

Collect statistics for each work area on

Resource utilization
Number in queue
Time in queue

For each exit point (Shipped, Salvaged,

Scrapped), collect total time in system (a.k.a.
cycle time)

Developing a Modeling Approach

Define pieces of model, modules, data structures,

control logic
Appropriate level of detail judgment call
Often multiple ways to model, represent logic
This model:

Entities are individual parts (two types)

Separate Create modules for two part types
Separate Process modules for each Prep area
Process modules for Sealer and Rework, each followed by
a Decide module (2-way by Chance)
Depart modules for Shipped, Salvaged, Scrapped
Attribute Sealer Time assigned after Creates in Assign
modules (parts have different times at the Sealer)
Record modules just before Departs for time in system

Building Model

New model window

Attach Basic Process panel (if needed)
Place modules

Create ( 2)
Assign ( 2)
Process ( 4)
Decide ( 2)
Record ( 3)
Dispose ( 3)

Alternate strategy
place one module at a
time, fill it out completely

Right click repeat last action (place module)

Auto-Connect, or manually connect via

Part A Create Module

Name: Part A Arrive

Entity Type: Part A
Time Between Arrivals

Type: Random (Expo)

Value: 5
Units: Minutes

Pull-down list with options

Once these entries are made,

they are placed on list for
names of that type (Module
Name, Entity Type, etc.) and
will appear on future pull-down
lists for that type of name.

Pull-down list with options

Default whats not mentioned above

Part B Create Module

Name: Part B Arrive

Entity Type: Part B
Time Between Arrivals

Type: Random (Expo)

Value: 30
Units: Minutes

Pull-down list with options

Pull-down list with options

Entities per Arrival: 4

Part A Attributes Assign Module

Name: Assign Part A Sealer and Arrive Time

Add button:

Type: Attribute
Attribute Name: Sealer Time
New Value: TRIA(1, 3, 4)

Add button:

Type: Attribute
Attribute Name: Arrive Time
New Value: TNOW (to compute time in system on exit)
TNOW is internal Arena variable name for simulation clock; see
Help > Arena Help > Contents > Variables, Functions, and Distributions > Variables >
Date and Time Variables

Part B Attributes Assign Module

Name: Assign Part B Sealer and Arrive Time

Add button:

Type: Attribute
Attribute Name: Sealer Time
New Value: WEIB(2.5, 5.3)

Add button:

Type: Attribute
Attribute Name: Arrive Time
New Value: TNOW
Names for things in Arena
Default names usually suggested
Names placed on appropriate pull-down lists for future reference
All names in a model must be unique (even across different kinds of objects)

Prep A Process Module

Name: Prep A Process

Action: Seize Delay Release
Resources subdialog (Add button):

Type: Resource (a pull-down option)

Resource Name: Prep A
Quantity: 1 (default)

Delay Type: Triangular

Units: Minutes
Minimum: 1
Value (Most Likely): 4
Maximum: 8

If several Resources
were named (Add
button), entity would
have to Seize them all
before Delay could start.

Prep B Process Module

Name: Prep B Process

Action: Seize Delay Release
Resources subdialog (Add button):

Type: Resource (a pull-down option)

Resource Name: Prep B
Quantity: 1 (default)

Delay Type: Triangular

Units: Minutes
Minimum: 3
Value (Most Likely): 5
Maximum: 10

Sealer Process Module

Name: Sealer Process

Action: Seize Delay Release
Resources subdialog (Add button):

Type: Resource (a pull-down option)

Resource Name: Sealer
Quantity: 1 (default)

Delay Type: Expression

Units: Minutes
Expression: Sealer Time

Recall Sealer Time attribute

was defined upstream for both
Parts A and B now its value is
being used allows for different
distributions for A and B.

Sealer Inspection-Result Decide Module

Decide module provides branch points

By Condition (entity Attributes, global Variables)

By Chance (multi-sided, possibly-biased hypercoin flip)

Name: Failed Sealer Inspection

Type: 2-way by Chance (default)
Percent True: 9
Different exit points for True, False results
connect appropriately downstream
Note its percent true, not probability of true so 9 means probability of 0.09
We arbitrarily decided true meant part failed inspection could have reversed (but would
change numerical results ... why? ... does this upset you? ... why?)
This is a rich, deep, versatile module explore its Help button

Rework Process Module

Name: Rework Process

Action: Seize Delay Release
Resources subdialog (Add button):

Type: Resource (a pull-down option)

Resource Name: Rework
Quantity: 1 (default)

Delay Type: Expression

Units: Minutes
Expression: EXPO(45)

Had to use general Expression choice for

Delay Type since what we want (EXPO) is
not directly on Delay Type pull-down list.

Rework Inspection-Result Decide

Module
Name: Failed Rework Inspection
Type: 2-way by Chance (default)
Percent True: 20
We arbitrarily decided true
meant part failed inspection

Record Modules

Arena collects and reports many output statistics

by default, but sometimes not all you want
Want time in system (avg, max) of parts sorted by
their exit point (Shipped, Salvaged, Scrapped)

Its this sorting that Arena doesnt do by default ... it would

automatically sort by Entity Type if we had Entities checked
in Run > Setup > Project Parameters (which we dont)

Record module can be placed in flowchart to

collect and report various kinds of statistics from
within model run as entities pass through it
For Tally-type output performance measures

Shipped Parts Record Module

Name: Record Shipped Parts

Type: Time Interval

Attribute Name: Arrive Time

Records time elapsed up to now (TNOW) from when an

entity attribute was marked with a time stamp upstream ...
Attribute Name is below ...
There are several other options for Type explore via
Record modules Help button!
Was defined upstream as clock value in Assign modules
instantly after each entity was Created

Tally Name: Record Shipped Parts

Determines label in reports

Other two Record modules

just like this except for Name
and Tally Name.

Dispose Modules

Three separate exit points for three separate part

disposition (Shipped, Salvaged, Scrapped)
Could have directed all three exit types to a
single Dispose module

Separate ones gets animation counts of three dispositions

Separate Dispose modules allows for differentially checking
boxes to Record Entity Statistics

Produces flow statistics separated by entity type (if Entities

Statistics Collection is checked in Run > Setup > Project
Parameters), not by final disposition of part so we did need our
Record modules and Arrive Time attribute

Run > Setup for Run Control

Without this, model would run forever no

defaults for termination rule

Thats part of modeling, and generally affects results!

Project Parameters tab:

Fill in Project Title, Analyst Name

Defaults for Statistics Collection, but we cleared check box
for Entities

Not needed for what we want (we installed our own Record
modules), and would slow execution

Replication Parameters tab:

Replication length: 32, accept Hours default for Time Units

Base Time Units: Minutes for inputs without Time Units
option, internal arithmetic, and units on output reports

Different Part A, B Entity Pictures

Entity data module (just single-click on it in

Project Bar, edit via spreadsheet only)
Row for each Entity Type (Part A, Part B)
Pull down Initial Picture pull-down menu, select
different pictures for each Entity Type

Edit > Entity Pictures to see, change list of pictures thats

presented here more later

Running Model

Check

(will automatically pre-Check if needed)

Some graphics dont show during run will return when

you End your run control via View > Layers
Status Bar shows run progress replication number,
simulation time, simulation status

Animation speed

Find button to help find errors

Go

(if desired)

Slider bar at top, or increase (> key), decrease (< key)

Pause ( ) or Esc key;

to resume
Run > Step ( ) to debug
Run > Fast-Forward ( ) to turn off animation

Run > Run Control > Batch Run (No Animation) is fastest

Viewing Results

Counters during animation for modules

Create, Dispose, Decide incremented when entity leaves

Process number of entities currently in module

Asked at end if you want to see reports

What you get depends on Run > Setup > Project Parameters

Navigate through report with browsing arrows, tree at left

Tally, Time-Persistent, and Counter statistics
Avg, Min, Max, and 95% Confidence Interval half-widths

Looks like Rework area is bottleneck ... more later

Confidence intervals are for steady-state expectations Chapter 7

May not be produced if run is not long enough for reliable stats

Generally difficult/unreliable to draw conclusions

from just one run more later

Model 4-2: Enhanced Electronic

Assembly and Test System
Original model shown to production manager

Pointed out that this is only first shift of a two-shift day on

second shift there are two operators at Rework (bottleneck
station) 16-hour days
Pointed out that Sealer fails sometimes

Wants to buy racks to hold rework queue

Uptimes ~ expo (2) hours

Repair times ~ expo (4) min.
A rack holds 10 parts
How many racks should be bought?

Run for 10 days (16-hour days)

Need: Resource Schedules, Resource States,

Resource Failures

Run Conditions

Redefine a day to be 16 hours Run > Setup >

Replication Parameters
Change Replication Length to 10 (of these) days

Schedules

Vary Capacity (no. units) of a resource over time

In Resource Data module (spreadsheet view)

For Rework Resource, change Type from Fixed

Capacity to Based on Schedule

Two new columns Schedule Name and Schedule Rule

Type in a Schedule Name (Rework Schedule)

Select a Schedule Rule details of capacity decrease if

Resource is allocated to an entity

Wait Capacity decrease waits until entity releases Resource, and

break will be full but maybe start/end late
Ignore Capacity goes down immediately for stat collection, but
work goes on until finished break could be shorter or gone
Preempt Processing is interrupted, resumed at end of break

Schedules (contd.)

Define actual Schedule that Resource will follow

Schedule data module

Row already there since we defined Rework Schedule

Format Type is Duration for entries based on elapsed time
past simulation start time
Type is Capacity, for Resource schedule (more later on
Arrival Type)
Click in Durations column, get Graphical Schedule Editor

X-axis is time, Y-axis is Resource Capacity

Click and drag to define graph
Options button to control axis scaling, time slots in editor, whether
schedule loops or stays at a final level forever
Can use Graphical Schedule Editor only if time durations are
integers, with no Variables or Expressions involved

Schedules (contd.)

Alternatively, right-click in row, select Edit via Dialog

Enter schedule Name

Enter pairs for Capacity, Duration as many pairs as needed
If all durations are specified, schedule repeats forever
If any duration is empty, it defaults to infinity

Can involve Variables, Expressions

Another alternative right-click in row, select Edit via

Spreadsheet

Enter capacity Value, Duration pairs

Resource Failures

Usually for unplanned, random downtimes

Can start definition in Resource or Failure module
(Advanced Process panel) well start in Failure
Attach Advanced Process panel if needed, singleclick on Failure, get spreadsheet view
To create new Failure, double-click add new row
Name the Failure
Type Time-based, Count-based (well do Time)
Specify Up Time, Down Time, with Units for both

Resource Failures (contd.)

Attach this Failure to correct Resource

Resource module, Failures column, Sealer row click

Get pop-up Failures window, pick Failure Name Sealer
Failure from pull-down list
Choose Failure Rule from Wait, Ignore, Preempt (as in
Schedules)

Can have multiple Failures (separate names)

acting on a resource
Can re-use defined Failures for multiple
Resources (operate independently if they involve
random variables)

Frequencies

Record time-persistent occurrence frequency of

variable, expression, or resource state

Use here to record % of time rework queue is of length 0,

(0, 10], (10, 20], for info on number of racks needed

Statistic data module (Advanced Process panel)

Five Types of statistics, of which Frequencies is one

Specify Name (Rework Queue Stats),
Frequency Type (Value)

Specify Expression to track and categorize

Right-click in field to get to Expression Builder

Report Label (Rework Queue Stats)

Pop-up secondary spreadsheet for Categories (browse file)

Frequencies (contd.)

Add another Frequency (in Statistic module) to

give a finer description of Sealer states

Produces statistics on proportion of time Sealer is in each

of its three possible states Busy, Idle, and Failed

Frequencies are not part of default Category

Overview report

Open Frequencies report from Project Bar (get separate

window)

Results of Model 4-2

Differ from those of Model 4-1 since this is a

longer run, modeling assumptions are different

All of which causes underlying random-number stream to

be used differently (Chapter 12)

Prep A/B didnt change (other than run length and

random variation) need statistical analysis of
simulation output (Chapters 6, 7, 12)
Sealer is more congested (it now fails)
Rework is less congested (50% higher staffing)
Frequencies report suggests one rack suffices
about 95% of the time, two racks all the time

Standard vs. Restricted Percents see text

Utilizations Fine Points

Two utilizations reported for each Resource

Instantaneous Utilization is time-average of ratio of number

of units that are busy to number of units that are scheduled

Scheduled Utilization is average number busy divided by

average number available

By definition, counts periods when zero units are scheduled as

zero-utilization periods

No division-by-zero problem, assuming there were ever any units of

Resource scheduled at all (if not, it shouldnt be in model)

Identical for fixed-capacity Resource

Can differ for Resources on a variable Schedule

If Resource capacity varies among several different positive

values, its better to use Scheduled Utilization
More issues, even finer points see text

Model 4-3: Enhancing the Animation

Get Spartan generic default animation for some

things (queues, connector-animation movement)

Often want to customize, enhance it a bit

More realism, impact

Pull animation away from logic in model window

Usually sufficient for verification, validation

Useful for big models, complex animation

Named Views for model logic, animation, or close-ups

Default animation objects are connected to model

logic and move with the module

Identifiers, physical location (Shift-drag to decouple)

Changing Animation Queues

Lengthen (click, drag, maybe hold shift) to hold

more entities

Simulation logic, results OK if animated queue overflows

Rotate to re-orient for realism

Change form of queue from Line (default) to
Point fixed places for entities

Double-click on queue
Select Type to be Point
Click Points button
Successively click Add for points, then OK
Drag them around on screen
Check Rotate box to show entities turning

Changing Entity Pictures

Earlier used Entity data module to assign

different Initial Pictures to different Entity Types
Can customize list, alter pictures in it

Edit > Entity Pictures

Left column names, pictures currently on list
Right column picture libraries (.plb filename extension)
Add a hand-drawn picture Add button on left, name it in
Value field at top, double-click on blank depressed button,
then artwork (or paste in a copied graphics image)

New name wont appear in Entity data module until you type it there

Edit an existing picture double-click, artwork

Copy a picture over from picture library

Adding Resource Pictures

Animate a Resource Resource button

in
animate toolbar get Resource Picture
Placement window
Left column default pictures for different
Resource states

Attach logically to a Resource by Identifier pull-down list

Double-click to edit artwork by hand, or paste in previously
copied graphics images
Seize area where seizing entity will reside
Multiple seize areas for multi-capacity Resources

Right column picture libraries (.plb files) can

copy over to selected (depressed) state pictures
Accept window, cross hairs, click to place

Resize, reposition later

Adding Variables and Plots

Variable animation just show a value of

something as a number, watch it change

Variable object
from Animate toolbar
Double-click, specify Expression to be shown (Expression
Builder), and cosmetics
Resize, reposition later

Dynamic animated plots Chapter 3

Other animation objects from Animate toolbar

Clock (TNOW), variety of formats

Level (thermometer) animation
Others discussed later

Model 4-4: Electronic Assembly and

Test System with Part Transfers
Generalize Model 4-3
All part transfers now take 2 minutes (not instant)

Model, animate this

Materially changes model logic, results
Two-minute transfer times for:

Arriving parts to prep areas

Departing parts to appropriate exit
All internal part transfers

Transfers take two minutes regardless of distance

Fix this (unrealistic) assumption in Chapter 8

New Arena Constructs

Station location where some process occurs

Arrivals, manufacturing cells, departures

Each Station given a unique name
Can serve as an entry point for a section of model logic
Station marker
represents a logical station in
flowchart/animation

Station Transfer entities move between Stations

without direct connection

Several different types well use Routes here, which allow

for positive transfer time, but no other delays like room on
transitway or transporters
Route paths represent Routes in flowchart/animation

Adding Route Logic From Arrival

Stations and Station Transfers affect both model

logic and animation
Start with Model 4-3 change to Model 4-4
For incoming parts (A and B) delete connection
from Assign modules to Prep Process modules

Replace with Station/Route module pairs

Station module (Advanced Transfer panel) define entitys location

Module Name vs. Station Name

Route module (Advanced Transfer panel) send entity out

Route Time, Destination Station

No direct connections exiting from Route modules Route

modules Destination Station Name defines that

Adding Remaining Route Logic

Add Station modules for entry to each Prep area

Process modules for Prep A, Prep B unchanged

After prep, entities connected to Route module to
send to next station (sealer)

Dont need a separate Station module for outgoing side

Similar changes for rest of model

Station names are Prep A Station, Prep B Station,

and are destination stations for Routes after arrivals

Station modules for incoming parts into sealer, rework,

each of three Record modules (entity exit points)
Route modules for outgoing parts out of sealer inspection,
rework inspection (two for each Decide module pass/fail)

Could run model now, get correct results but

no animation of transfers

Why Not Just Add Delays?

Simpler way to get two-minute transfer times:

Insert a Process module with Action = Delay for 2 minutes

on each relevant connection
Or, use Delay module from Advanced Process panel

This would work from modeling, numerical-output

viewpoints
But would not allow animation of part transfers,
so well proceed with Stations and Routes

Altering Animation Stations

Add animation for Stations and Routes

Station button , Animate Transfer toolbar

Attach Identifier to it from pull-down list of station names

Get cross hairs, place (click) marker in animation
Can place several station markers for same logical station
(e.g., to represent incoming, outgoing sides)
Can drag station markers around later

Altering Animation Routes

Route button

Options for appearance of entities as they travel route

Get cross hairs; click in origin, destination Station Markers

from Animate Transfer toolbar

Intermediate clicks for corners along route

Can drag around endpoints, corners later

Alternatively, use Route animation to create both Station
markers and Route animation

Click for beginning Station marker

Intermediate clicks for route corners
Double-click for ending Station marker
Then go back and double-click on the two Station markers to define
their logical Identifiers

Altering Animation Entity Pictures

Part B arrivals are in batches of four parts/batch

But constant travel time to Prep B implies they travel on

top of each other so it looks like just one part B
Try change Route time from 2 to EXPO(2), see
separation along route

Create a dishonest illusion to animate batch

Assign module just after Part B Arrive

Add assignment of Entity Picture to Picture.Batch B
Edit > Entity Pictures to draw new picture

Copy Picture.Part B and rename it Picture.Batch B

Double-click on picture, use Picture Editor to get four circles

When batch arrives to Prep B, change to single circle

Add Assign module after Prep B Arrival Station

Finding and Fixing Model Errors

If error prevents model from running, Arena will

try to detect and lead you to it in Check or Run

Undefined (or inconsistently spelled) Variables, Attributes,

Resources
Unconnected modules
Duplicate names
Examples see text

Highlight Active Module selects active module

during run animation
View > Layers while running change what
shows during run animation

Finding and Fixing Model Errors (contd.)

Module Break stop when entity reaches module

Debug Bar

View > Debug Bar

Breakpoints, Calendar, Active Entity, Watch
Run Controller
Examples see text

Input Analysis: Specifying Model

Parameters, Distributions
Structural modeling: what weve done so far

Logical aspects entities, resources, paths, etc.

Quantitative modeling

Numerical, distributional specifications

Like structural modeling, need to observe systems
operation, take data if possible

Deterministic vs. Random Inputs

Deterministic: nonrandom, fixed values

Random (a.k.a. stochastic): model as a

distribution, draw or generate values from to
drive simulation

Number of units of a resource

Entity transfer time (?)
Interarrival, processing times (?)

Transfer, Interarrival, Processing times

What distribution? What distributional parameters?
Causes simulation output to be random, too

Dont just assume randomness away validity

Collecting Data

Generally hard, expensive, frustrating, boring

System might not exist

Data available on wrong things might have to change
model according to whats available
Incomplete, dirty data
Too much data (!)

Sensitivity of outputs to uncertainty in inputs

Match model detail to quality of data
Cost should be budgeted in project
Capture variability in data model validity
Garbage In, Garbage Out (GIGO)

Using Data:
Alternatives and Issues
Use data directly in simulation

Read actual observed values to drive model inputs

(interarrivals, service times, part types, )

Arena ReadWrite module ... see Model 10-2

All values will be legal and realistic

But can never go outside your observed data
May not have enough data for long or many runs
Computationally slow (reading disk files)

Or, fit probability distribution to data

Draw or generate synthetic observations from this

distribution to drive model inputs
Weve done it this way so far
Can go beyond observed data (good and bad)
May not get a good fit to data validity?

Fitting Distributions to Data

with Arena Input Analyzer
Assume:

Have sample data: Independent and Identically Distributed

(IID) list of observed values from actual physical system
Want to select or fit a probability distribution for use in
generating inputs for simulation model

Arena Input Analyzer

Separate application, also via Tools menu in Arena

Fits distributions, gives valid Arena expression for
generation to paste directly into simulation model

Fitting Distributions to Data

with Arena Input Analyzer (contd.)
Fitting = deciding on distribution form
(exponential, gamma, empirical, etc.) and
estimating its parameters

Several different methods (Maximum likelihood, moment

matching, least squares, )
Assess goodness of fit via hypothesis tests

H0: fitted distribution adequately represents data

Get p value for test (small = poor fit)

Fitted theoretical vs. empirical distribution

Continuous vs. discrete data, distribution
Best fit from among several distributions

Data Files for Arena Input Analyzer

Create data file

Open data file from within Input Analyzer

Editor, word processor, spreadsheet, ...

Plain ASCII text save as text or export)
Values separated by white space blanks, tabs, linefeeds
Otherwise free format
File > New or
File > Data File > Use Existing or
Get histogram, basic summary of data
To see data file: Window > Input Data

Generate fake data file to play around

File > Data File > Generate New

Fit Menu

Fits distributions, does goodness-of-fit tests

Fit a specific distribution form

Plots density over histogram for visual test

Gives exact expression to Copy and Paste (Ctrl+C, Ctrl+V)
over into simulation model
May include offset depending on distribution
Gives results of goodness-of-fit tests

Chi square, Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests

Most important part: p-value, always between 0 and 1:
Probability of getting a data set thats more inconsistent with fitted distribution
than data set you actually have, if fitted distribution is truly the truth
Small p (< 0.05 or so): poor fit (try again or give up)

Fit Menu (contd.)

Fit all of Arenas (theoretical) distributions at

once

Fit > Fit All or

Returns minimum square-error distribution

Square error = sum of squared discrepancies between histogram

frequencies and fitted-distribution frequencies
Can depend on histogram intervals chosen: different intervals can
lead to different best distribution

Could still be a poor fit, though (check p value)

To see all distributions, ranked: Window > Fit All Summary
or

Fit Menu (contd.)

Fit Empirical distribution (continuous or

discrete): Fit > Empirical

Used when theoretical distributions fit poorly, or used

intentionally
Can interpret results as Discrete or Continuous distribution

Discrete: get pairs (Cumulative Probability, Value)

Continuous: Arena will linearly interpolate within data range
according to these pairs (so you can never generate values outside
range, which might be good or bad)
Edit > Copy Expression to paste the (sometimes-lengthy)
expression to Windows clipboard, then paste this copied expression
into destination field in Arena model

Need to edit end of expression slightly by adding an extra pair at the end still
inside the parentheses, , 1.000, xmax where xmax is the largest value
you ever want to generate

Issues in Fitting Input Distributions

Not an exact science no right answer

Consider theoretical vs. empirical
Consider range of distribution

Infinite both ways (e.g., normal)

Positive (e.g., exponential, gamma)
Bounded (e.g., beta, uniform)

Consider ease of parameter manipulation to

affect means, variances
Simulation model sensitivity analysis
Outliers, multimodal data

Maybe split data set (details in text)

No Data?

Happens more often than youd like

No good solution; some (bad) options:

Interview experts

Min, Max: Uniform

Avg., % error or absolute error: Uniform
Min, Mode, Max: Triangular
Mode can be different from Mean allows asymmetry

Interarrivals independent, stationary

Exponential still need some value for mean

Number of random events in an interval: Poisson

Sum of independent pieces: normal (heed left tail ...)
Product of independent pieces: lognormal

Cautions on Using Normal Distributions

Probably most familiar distribution normal bell

curve used widely in statistical inference
But it has infinite tails in both directions in
particular, has an infinite left tail so can always
(theoretically) generate negative values

If mean is big relative to standard deviation ,

then P(negative) value is small one in a million

Many simulation input quantities (e.g., time durations) must

be positive to make sense Arena truncates negatives to 0

But in simulation, one in a million can happen

See text, Model 4-5

Moral avoid normal as input distribution

Nonstationary Arrival Processes

Events (often arrivals), rate varies over time

It can be critical to model nonstationarity for

model validity

Lunchtime at fast-food restaurants

Rush-hour traffic in cities
Telephone call centers
Seasonal demands for a manufactured product

Ignoring peaks, valleys can mask important behavior

Can miss rush hours, etc.

Good model: Nonstationary Poisson process

Nonstationary Arrival Processes (contd.)

Two issues:

How to specify/estimate rate function

How to generate from it properly during simulation

Several ways to estimate rate function well just

do piecewise-constant

Divide time frame of simulation into subintervals of time

over which you think rate is fairly flat
Compute observed rate within each subinterval
In Arena, must convert to expected number of arrivals per
hour on subintervals that need not be of one-hour length

Want expected 45 arrivals in a half hour; specify rate = 90 per hour

Example: Model 5-2 in Chapter 5

Multivariate and Correlated Input Data

Usually assume all generated random

observations in a simulation are independent
(though from possibly different distributions)
Sometimes not true:

A difficult part requires long processing in both Prep and

Sealer operations
This is positive correlation

Ignoring such relations can invalidate model

See text for ideas, references