XMPro

Agile Industrial IoT

The 5 Step Roadmap To

IoT-Based
Predictive Maintenance
How to leverage sensor data, predictive
analytics & machine learning for more
intelligent maintenance

Version 2.0

XMPro
Agile Industrial IoT

XMPro
Agile Industrial IoT

Published by XMPro, Inc.

Copyright @ 2016 by XMPro, Inc. All rights reserved. Digitally printed in the United States of
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Table of Contents
The Evolution of Maintenance 4
A Brief History 4
Where we are now 6
1. Identify Assets 8
Asset Evaluation Criteria for Predictive Maintenance 8
Analyze assets using RCM 8
2. Gather Data 10
Install Sensors 10
Prepare Data 11
Feature Selection 12
3. Design Predictive Model 13
Choose an Algorithm 13
Train the Model 14
Evaluate The Model 14
Methods to Measure Model Performance 15
Which method works for PdM? 15
Deploy the model into Production 16
Design the Eventstream in XMPro IOM 16
4. Manage Work 18
Why it matters 18
Assigning work 19
Resource Scheduling 19
Discussions 19
Notifications & Escalations 20
Field Inspections 20
5. Learn & Act Smarter 20

Save Adaptive Case Action Sequences As Templates

20

Use Predictive Models to Predict Best Next Actions

21

Scale PdM Program Across Multiple Asset Types 22

Move from Predictive to Prescriptive Analytics 22

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The Evolution of Maintenance

Change is inevitable except from a vending machine.
- Robert C. Gallagher
Since the invention of the first machine, man has had to deal with maintenance and repairs.
Thankfully, as our technology has become more sophisticated, so has our approach to
maintaining it.

A Brief History

It started out with reactive maintenance, operating on a fix it when it breaks model. This
approach has very obvious flaws, especially when used in large-scale production environments.
We soon realized that catastrophic failures werent good for business.
This gave way to a new approach. We decided not to wait until something breaks, but rather to
perform preventative maintenance at fixed time intervals to stop these failures from occurring.
While preventative maintenance might have offered some benefits, it didnt solve truly the
problems we were facing.

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Here are a few reasons why:

It creates unnecessary work, by sending technicians to fix things that arent broken.
Its labour intensive, requiring a large number of technicians to manage a companys assets.
Preventative maintenance often doesnt uncover critical issues that arise between
maintenance intervals.
According to NASA, failure patterns that are age related only apply to 18% of assets.1

The combined cost of excess maintenance and

lost productivity in the US has been estimated at
$740B.2
Then things changed again. Companies started to take advantage of the benefits predictive
maintenance (PdM) had to offer. The ultimate goal of implementing predictive maintenance
was to prevent unplanned reactive maintenance due to failure and eliminate the costs of doing
unnecessary preventative maintenance. This approach keeps the maintenance frequency as
low as possible while still preventing equipment failure.
According to a survey3 by Plant Services, 7 out of 10 respondents have a predictive
maintenance program in place, with the most common technologies being vibration analysis,
infrared imaging, and oil analysis. Weve labelled PdM programs using these techniques
Manual Predictive Maintenance.

Proactive Asset Management

Simplifying Predictive Maintenance

Is your PdM Program as good as it could be?

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Where we are now

The next step in the evolution of maintenance is to move to a more scalable IoT-based
predictive maintenance program. This approach to maintenance used to be out of reach for
most organizations, because of the high cost of computational memory and the lack of scalable
platforms.
The Internet of Things has opened up unprecedented new opportunities for companies in
industrial verticals like oil and gas, utilities, manufacturing, and aerospace. Data created by
industrial equipment has potential that goes far beyond the hype of wearable consumer
electronics. It is no surprise that industry leaders are looking to these new technologies to drive
innovation and efficiency.
In a recent survey by GE to executives in industrial verticals, 76% of respondents said that they
plan on increasing their spending in Big Data analytics. This increase in spending is driven
largely by the fear of their competitors gaining market share at their expense. Another driver
is the belief that Big Data Analytics has the power to change the competitive landscape they
operate in.4
Using predictive analytics to drive maintenance is what weve labelled IoT-based predictive
maintenance. It allows you to scale your predictive program by leveraging IoT data and
predictive models, without incurring massive costs or scrambling to find more qualified
employees.
Data is the new competitive asset and those who can glean the most insight from their data will
have the upper hand when making decisions. Just like any other asset, its value is tied to the
expectation of receiving benefits in the future.
Many companies are data rich and information poor at this stage. They have sensors on their
equipment and theyre generating masses of timestamped temperature and pressure readings,
but they need to take things a step further to truly start seeing the potential Big Data has to
offer.
4

Industrial Internet Insights Report for 2015

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Companies that get the highest yield of insights from their data will rise above the rest in the
years to come. As your analytics program becomes more mature youll be able to glean more
insights and progressively improve your decision-making capabilities, allowing you to get more
value out of the data you already have.
Weve found that the lowest hanging fruit with regard to Big Data for industrial companies lies
in using predictive analytics to enable an IoT-based predictive maintenance program. In this
ebook, were going to show you how to get started with the 5 Step Roadmap to IoT-Based
Predictive Maintenance.

5 step Roadmap to iot-Based Predictive Maintenance

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1. Identify Assets
Now that youve decided to implement an IoT-based predictive maintenance program, you
need to determine which assets are a good fit. Here is a simple framework to evaluate which
assets would be best suited to a PdM program.

Asset Evaluation Criteria for Predictive Maintenance

Does the asset have a critical operating function?
Is there significant cost associated with repairing the asset after a failure?
Are there safety risks associated with asset failure?
Is there significant cost associated with performing preventative maintenance on the asset?
Can you predict failures in a cost effective way through monitoring and a predictive model?

Analyze assets using RCM

Next, we are going to use reliability centered maintenance to perform an analysis on each
asset weve chosen to include in the PdM program. RCM provides a proactive assessment of
the likely failure modes for an asset and helps to develop specific tasks to prevent reoccurring
failures.
RCM was developed in the 1960s for the airline industry and has since been used in the space,
defense and nuclear industries, where functional failures have the potential to cause extreme
environmental impact and loss of life. While performing a rigorous RCM analysis is appropriate
for those industries, were going to use a more streamlined version to analyze our equipment.
Combining the RCM assessment with predictive analytics not only gives you a clearer indication
of the status of your equipment but also enables you to efficiently manage the work that results
from those insights.

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Implementing a full-scale RCM program and predetermining the tasks for each possible failure
mode for each piece of equipment can be a very daunting, expensive and time-consuming
process. If that approach doesnt appeal to you or its just not within your budget, well show
you how to get around that using our Adaptive Case Management in Step 4 of the roadmap.
Pairing an RCM program with predictive analytics will allow you improve the answers to your 7
questions over time, enabling even better data-based decision making.
There are 7 questions that need to be asked when using the Reliability Centered
Maintenance strategy:
1. What are the functions and desired performance standards of each asset?
2. How can each asset fail to fulfill its functions?
3. What are the failure modes for each functional failure?
4. What causes each of the failure modes?
5. What are the consequences of each failure?
6. What can and/or should be done to predict or prevent each failure?
7. What should be done if a suitable proactive task cannot be determined?
A failure mode is any event which is reasonably likely to cause a functional failure in the asset.
This can be due to deterioration, human errors, design faults and poor procedures. 5
Failure modes can be divided into 3 groups:
1. Failures that have occurred before on same or similar asset
2. Failures that have been successfully prevented by existing maintenance
3. Any failures outside those 2 categories which are considered a real possibility in the future

Reliability Centered Maintenance

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2. Gather Data
install Sensors
The first step in setting up your predictive maintenance infrastructure is to install sensors on
your assets. Subsequently, you need to either set up a gateway to the Internet to stream data
from those sensors or you can send the sensor data to your Plant Information system.
Following the RCM assessment, you can decide which sensors you want to install on your
equipment based on the causes of failure modes you want to predict and the indicators of
those failure modes. To decide on the infrastructure required to form the foundation of your
predictive maintenance program, you need to ask the following 2 questions:
1. What do you want to measure?
Examples are:
Pressure
Vibration
Temperature
Voltage
Flow
2. What do you want to do with your data?

Store in an external database

Send to a cloud service

Store in a Plant Information system

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Prepare Data
Why is it important?
Quality data is the lifeblood of a quality model. Even though sensors provide a higher level of
data accuracy than manual entry would, it still doesnt make for a completely clean dataset right
off the bat.
Like Eric King says, Many people assume that modeling greatness is wrapped up in the ability
to build a better algorithm. Building a better algorithm is like building a faster rocket ship. Its
great, as long as youre pointing the ship in the right direction. Nobody wants to move faster if
theyre going in the wrong direction, but this is precisely what happens in many organizations.
Data preparation is a big part of keeping that rocket pointed in the right direction.6
According to The Data Warehousing Institute (TDWI), the unusable nature of dirty data (a
database record that contains errors) costs organizations up to $600 billion each year.7
The quality of your data is going to affect your models performance. Model performance is
going to affect the maintenance schedule you follow. Your maintenance schedule is going
to affect both maintenance and production costs. So while data preparation might not sound
glamorous, it is of key importance when implementing a PdM program.
What tools should I use?
Data preparation can be done either in XMPro or the Azure Machine Learning Studio.
XMPros Stream Designer includes a set of extensible/pluggable transformations to
transform your data. Data can then be sent to the Azure model after preparation.
If your data is already in a tabular format you can also perform data pre-processing in the
Azure ML Studio.

Data Preparation: A Vital Step in Predictive Analytics

Data Quality & The Bottom Line

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Typical Data Quality Issues:

Incomplete: Data lacks attributes or contains missing values.
Noisy: Data contains erroneous records or outliers.
Inconsistent: Data contains conflicting records or discrepancies.
Common data preparation tasks:
Data cleaning: Fill in missing values, detect and remove noisy data and outliers.
Data transformation: Normalize data to reduce dimensions and noise.
Data reduction: Sample data records or attributes for easier data handling.
Data discretization: Convert continuous attributes to categorical attributes for ease of use
with certain machine learning methods.
Text cleaning: remove embedded characters which may cause data misalignment.
For more detailed information go to Learning Guide: Advanced data processing in Azure.

Feature Selection
Feature selection is the process of identifying the most influential variables in your dataset. It
is crucial to understand the role played by each feature, especially when working with large
datasets. Some variables will be better for predicting equipment failure than others. Reducing
the features in your dataset will prevent the algorithm from having a high variance. Less
features also reduce the computational power needed to run the model. This allows for faster
experiments.
Feature selection is often a manual process that requires expert domain knowledge.
Experienced members of your engineering and maintenance team will be of great value if you
choose to go this route.

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Another way to do feature selection is to use Azures Filter Based Feature Selection module.
This module allows you to apply different statistical tests to your dataset, based on the type of
data and task. The feature columns with the best scores are then used to build the predictive
model.

3. Design Predictive Model

Choose an Algorithm
The business problem you are trying to solve is going to dictate which algorithm is most
appropriate.8 Now you need to ask what do we want to predict?
Predicting if it will fail - Use Binary Classification
Binary Classification attempts to predict whether an asset falls into one of two classes. The
classes are mutually exclusive and can be called will fail and will not fail for example.
Azure Machine learning gives you multiple two-class classification algorithms to choose from
including:

Two-class logistical regression

Two-class boosted decision trees

Two-class decision forest

Two-class neural networks

Predicting when it will fail - Use Survival Analysis

Survival Analysis is used to predict the time until the occurrence of an event of interest. In the
case of predictive maintenance we want to predict the time until an asset failure.
8

Predictive Analytics with Microsoft Azure Machine Learning

What is Survival Analysis?

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For more information on choosing the right algorithm for your predictive model have a look at
this cheat sheet - Choosing an Algorithm Cheat Sheet

Train the Model

The next phase of the experiment is to split your data into two samples. Your training sample
is going to comprise 70% of the initial dataset. The remaining 30% is going to be allocated to
the test sample. You can now use the Train Model module in the Azure Studio to run your
experiment and train the model.

Evaluate The Model

Compare Algorithms
Azure gives you the ability to score and evaluate multiple algorithms and find the most accurate
model for your dataset. Algorithms are compared using the same training and testing data
samples.
Measure Model Performance
Azure has provided multiple methods to measure your models performance.
Why do you need multiple methods? Because the ratio between positive values and negative
values in the data, otherwise known as the class distribution, isnt always 50/50.
The cost of wrong predictions isnt equal either. False positives and false negatives have
different costs associated with them. In the case of a false positive in predictive maintenance,
the model predicts a failure when there isnt going to be one. This is could lead to incurring
the cost to get a maintenance person to inspect the piece of equipment and find that there is
nothing wrong. Or it could mean replacing a part that didnt need to be replaced.

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Compare that to the cost associated with a false negative, where an asset failed and had to
be fixed reactively. Assuming the asset meets the criteria we used in Step 1, false negatives
could have very high cost and safety risks associated with them. It makes sense to optimize the
model to predict less false negatives when critical operating equipment is involved.

Methods to Measure Model Performance

Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve
The ROC curve gives you a visual representation of your
binary classification models performance. It has True Positive
Rate on the y-axis and False Positive Rate on the x-axis.
Precision 10
Precision gives you the ratio of correct positive observations.
True Positives / (True Positives + False Positives).
Recall
Recall gives you the ratio of correctly predicted positive events.
True Positives / (True Positives + False Negatives).
F1 Score
The F1 score gives you the weighted average of both Precision and Recall.
2*(Recall * Precision)/(Recall + Precision)

Which method works for PdM?

In the case of predictive maintenance where the cost of a false negative (failure happens and
wasnt predicted) is higher than a false positive (fixing something that wasnt broken), it is best
to focus on the Recall method to evaluate the model performance.

10

Performance measures in Azure ML: Accuracy, Precision, Recall and F1 Score

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Deploy the model into Production

Now that youve completed the model you can save it and remove the training modules in
Azure. Moving your model into production is done by publishing it to a new web service.
Here youll receive the APIs to call your model as a web service and use it in XMPros Stream
Designer.

Design the stream in XMPro

XMPros Stream Designer gives you the ability to configure the entire predictive maintenance
stream for an asset using a drag and drop interface. This includes everything from setting
up the connection to the sensor data or PI system, to running the predictive model, sending
notifications and initiating new actions.

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Configure Plant Information System Queue

Were going to start by setting up a connection to our Plant Information System, which contains
all of the data from our sensors. XMPro seamlessly connects to the external systems without
requiring any coding. It also has a library of standard connectors, which includes a connector to
the popular Plant Information System by OSIsoft.
Set up Buffer
Next, we are going to set up a buffer to listen for a specific type of asset, like a transformer or a
centrifugal pump.
Set up Filters
We can then set up a threshold for a specific feature that would indicate a failure, like a
temperate reading above 400 or a flow rate of 0. You can also set up a notification that will
immediately send an SMS alert to notify relevant parties about a failure.
Add Predictive Model
Here you will set up the connection to your Azure predictive model by using the API to call
the web service you published earlier. In this instance, we are going to use Azures data
preparation tools.
Set up Actions
XMPro lets you set up a response based on the prediction by the model. If the model predicts
that a failure is likely to happen it can initiate an XMPro case, which sends the information to
an engineer. The engineer can then decide which steps should be taken for that particular
situation.

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4. Manage Work
Why it matters
The value of predictive maintenance lies in doing the maintenance work to prevent a failure
before it happens. Alerts and notifications arent enough to ensure that gets done, especially
if you are implementing a large-scale PdM program across multiple types of assets. Tasks are
bound to slip through the cracks if they arent managed, assigned and tracked. Even though
predictive maintenance inherently creates a more predictable maintenance program, you still
need to be able to make decisions on a case-by-case basis. Every possible failure situation
cant be planned for every asset.
If the model predicts a failure with a predetermined response task, you can kick off an
automated workflow in XMPro.
The problem with most predictive maintenance programs is that the tasks associated with
performing the maintenance dont allow for knowledge workers to make decisions. The system
just creates an automated work order and doesnt provide the flexibility for a knowledge
worker, like an engineer, to determine appropriate actions on a case-by-case basis.
In many cases there are unplanned events that happen and the tasks to respond to that
situation arent clear cut. This is especially true if you havent moved into a full Reliability
Centered Maintenance program. There are many times where you need to rely on an engineer
or expert to look at the data and decide what should be done next.
In cases like this, you can kick off a case in XMPro, where the engineer can look at the data
and the prediction and make a decision on which steps to take to resolve that particular
situation. They then become the case manager and can create and assign tasks to technicians.
In order for a PdM program to succeed you need to be able to capture the knowledge and
experience from your workers and leverage it for more intelligent operations. This also allows
you to improve your answers to the 7 RCM questions based on the new data created by your
predictive maintenance program.

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Assigning work
After the engineer has decided which steps are appropriate for a particular case they can
create tasks and assign them to specific technicians with deadlines. This ensures that the work
gets done to prevent the asset failure.
Another important aspect of managing the work associated with a PdM program is the need for
a fully visible audit trail related to the case. XMPro gives you a full audit trail of actions, files, and
discussions associated with a case and allows you to easily create reports.

Resource Scheduling
In order to manage work created from predictions, you need to invest in a tool that allows you
to schedule the technician, asset and maintenance facility or equipment. XMPros platform
comes with an easy to use drag & drop scheduler that allows you to assign resources (both
people and assets) to tasks in a visual interface. It also gives you the option to auto-schedule
tasks when presented with a conflict in the schedule.

Discussions
Collaboration is an essential part of making decisions as a knowledge worker. You want to
empower your engineers and maintenance managers to consult with their colleagues in order
to make the best decision for the situation. XMPros discussionsand crowd questions facilitate
collaboration by embedding social-style messaging in the context of cases and processes. This
givesyour engineers the ability todiscuss a task, ask advice and understand context without
usingemail. All of the discussions are linked to the case and can be viewed as part of the audit
trail to help you understand why a decision was made.

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Notifications & Escalations

While notifications arent enough to ensure a job gets done in time, they do assist with creating
awareness about the situation. Your technicians can automatically receive notifications of new
tasks via email and SMS.
It is also important to have an escalation procedure in place, especially when the task relates
to the predicted failure of a critical asset. The work needs to get done in time. If a task isnt
completed within a specified period of time the technician will receive another notification
as a reminder. A task can automatically escalate to a designated person, like a maintenance
manager, if it has not been attended to after multiple notifications.

Field Inspections
Your technicians need to be able to manage work from wherever they are. XMPros mobile
interfaces have fully featured task management capabilities. Technicians can also add photos,
audio and video files to inspection forms from theirmobile device. This means no more
clipboards and paper checklists. Every action and file get added to the case, which can then be
referenced in the future.

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5. Learn & Act Smarter

Save Adaptive Case Action Sequences As Templates
A key feature of XMPros Case Manager is the ability to save a sequence of actions as a
template, in order to capture the decision-making knowledge from the engineer. And create a
repeatable process for when a similar situation presents itself in the future. This allows you to
build up a knowledge base to aid decision making in the future, making your data a strategic
competitive asset.

Use Predictive Models to Predict Best Next Actions

Once you have a solid IoT-based PdM program in place, you can start to use machine learning
and predictive models to predict the best actions to take in each situation.
XMPros unique event-based architecture lends itself to process mining, whichgives it the
ability toanalyzeprocessinformation tolook for patterns of work, predict the outcome of the
process and suggest process steps that will guide actions towards desired outcomes. This
gives you insight into the which actions created the best outcomes and allows you provide
even better decision support to your knowledge workers in the form of a Best Next Action.
Best Next Action provides the suggested next action to the user but does not automate the
decision. It is still up to the user to decide on the course of action.
At this stage, Predictive Analytics will bridge the gap between your data and actions by
predicting both the asset failure events and the best actions to take in response.

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scale pdm program across multiple asset types

In this step, youll visually configure event streams in XMPro for more of the assets you
identified in Step 1. Unlike most predictive maintenance solutions which only allow for the
monitoring of a specific type of asset, like a pump or turbine, XMPro allows you to set up
multiple monitoring queues for multiple types of assets. This makes it easy for you to scale your
PdM program without having to code a bespoke solution for each asset type.

Move from Predictive to Prescriptive Analytics

Evolve from a purely predictive to a more prescriptive program by adding business rules and
parameters from other contextual data into your predictive maintenance event stream. An
example of this would be:
If the asset is worth more than $1 000 000 -> automatically escalate the case.
Prescriptive analytics is often referred to as the holy grail of analytics programs, which can
make it seem like a completely unattainable feat. However, if you start by systematicaly
implementing the steps outlined in this roadmap and strategically investing in your IoT-based
PdM program, your organization will rise above the rest and see the benefits of the Internet of
Things reflected in your bottomline.

Never try to solve all the problems at once

make them line up for you one-by-one.
Richard Sloma

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About XMPro
XMPro is a global provider of software and services for industrial IoT applications.
Founded in 2009, XMPro has a proven track record of helping organizations improve
operational excellence, reduce risk and increase asset utilization through its Agile IoT
Application Suite and Business Process Management products. Closely integrated with
the .NET and Azure software stacks, XMPro enhances the productivity of the Microsoft
environment with a visual, model-based approach that enables deployment of IoT applications
in weeks.

History
XMPro founder, Pieter van Schalkwyk, identified a need for an intelligent business process
management solution in 2009. XMPro released its first BPM solution in 2010 and received the
Gartner BPM Cool Vendor award in 2012.
Building on its BPM roots, XMPro evolved into an IoT company in 2015. It released the Agile
IoT Application Suite to help industrial organizations improve operational performance through
the Internet of Things. XMPro also joined the most progressive and innovative companies from
around the world as a member of the Industrial Internet Consortium.

Recognition

Contact
For more information visit xmpro.com or send an email to info@xmpro.com

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