Esri International User Conference
San Diego, California
Technical Workshops | July 24, 2012
Spatial Pattern Analysis:
Mapping Trends and Clusters
Lauren M. Scott, PhD
Lauren Rosenshein Bennett, MS
Presentation Outline
Spatial problem solving
Spatial statistics overview
Describing spatial patterns
Quantifying spatial patterns
Mapping spatial clusters
-
Hot and cold spots
Spatial outliers
Similar features
DEMO
Exploring regional variations in health care.
Kindly cmplete a course evaluation: www.esri.com/ucsessionsurveys
Norway March 30, 2008
The Pocket Man
The Pocket Man
The Pocket Man
All Incidents
The Pocket Man
Spatial Clusters
The Pocket Man
Time (early events)
The Pocket Man
Time (mid events)
The Pocket Man
Time (late events)
The Pocket Man
Day of the week
The Pocket Man
Spatial Statistics
The Pocket Man
Hot Spot Analysis
Bergen Hot Spot
Oslo Hot Spot
Oslo Cold Spot
The Pocket Man
Caught
What are Spatial Statistics in ArcGIS?
A set of exploratory methods and techniques
Specifically developed for use with geographic data
-
They incorporate space (area, length, proximity, orientation)
directly into their mathematics
They describe and model:
-
Spatial Distributions
Spatial Patterns
Spatial Processes
Spatial Relationships
Spatial statistics extend what the eyes and mind do intuitively
to assess spatial patterns, trends and relationships.
Why use spatial statistics?
Spatial Statistics help us assess:
Patterns
Relationships
L&L Car Rental
Trends
How we present our results (colors,
class breaks, symbols) can either
enhance or obscure communication.
L&L
Car Rental
Spatial Statistics Toolbox in ArcGIS
Core functionality with ArcGIS
(not an extension).
Most tools delivered with their
source code.
Most tools available at all license
levels.
16
Describing Spatial Data
Questions
-
Which site is most accessible?
What is the primary wind direction in the
winter months?
Where is the population center and how
it is changing over time?
Which species has the broadest spatial
distribution? Which are the most
spatially integrated?
17
Finding the center
The Mean Center tool
computes the average
x and y coordinate,
based on all features
in the study area.
18
Distribution and Direction
(Standard Deviational Ellipse)
Abstracting spatial and temporal
trends in a distribution of features
Dengue
Fever
Outbreak
Salmon
Distributions
Ellipse size
Normal distribution
99%
95%
1 = 68% of features
68%
Mean
+
2 = 95% of features
3 = 99% of features
20
Analyzing territories
(Standard Deviational Ellipse)
Center
Dispersion
Orientation
21
Measuring segregation and integration
(Standard Deviational Ellipse)
22
Quantifying Spatial Patterns
Which pattern is most clustered?
Quantifying Spatial Patterns
Which pattern is most clustered?
Natural Breaks
Equal Interval
Quantile
Quantifying Spatial Patterns
You say its clustered
Compared to what?
Says who?
Compared to what?
Complete Spatial Randomness
Inferential statistics start with a null hypothesis
-
Random distribution of features
Random distribution of values within fixed features
Dispersed
Random
Clustered
Says who?
Probability theory
Inferential statistics report a p-value and z-score
-
z-scores are standard deviations
p-values are probabilities
z-scores can be mapped
to specific p-values
-
p-value 0.01 = z-score +/- 2.58
p-value 0.05 = z-score +/-1.96
p-value 0.10 = z-score +/-1.65
Quantifying spatial patterns over time
Spatial Autocorrelation (Global Morans I)
1969
1985
2002
Thematic maps showing relative per capita Income for New York by
county, 1969 to 2002
Is the spatial gap between rich and poor increasing or dissipating?
Quantifying spatial patterns over time
Spatial Autocorrelation (Global Morans I)
1969
1985
5.21
2002
4.26
2.4
6
4
2
1969
1979
1989
1999
Mapping Spatial Clusters
Some of the questions you can answer:
-
Where do we find anomalous spending patterns?
Where do we see unexpectedly high rates of suicide?
Do burglaries committed during the day have the same spatial
pattern as those occurring at night?
Which disease incidents are likely part of the same outbreak?
Where are the 911 call
hot spots?
Which homes sold for
more than expected?
Which countries face
similar challenges?
Exploring regional
variations in health care
Lauren Rosenshein Bennett, MS
Examining the spatial pattern of poverty in Kenya
(Cluster and Outlier Analysis: Anselin Local Morans I)
High Poverty
High Poverty
Surrounded by
Low poverty
Low Poverty
Grouping Analysis
Provide:
-
Number of groups
Variables to use for grouping
Spatial-temporal constrains (if any)
Option to evaluate optimal number of groups
Grouping Analysis
Group 1: low income, low education, high unemployment, high crime
Group 2: middle values for all variables
Group 3: higher income and education, lower unemployment and crime
Grouping Analysis Reports
Is CSR useful?
Raising the bar:
-
Normalize the analysis field to create a rate
Analyze average values
Compare z-score magnitudes
Across space
Over time
Among control spatial distributions
5
3
1
1969
1979
1989
1999
Resources for learning more
During the conference
Technical Workshops
Room 5A/B
Modeling Spatial Relationships Using Regression
T 10:15
Whats New in Spatial Statistics
3:15
Spatial Pattern Analysis
1:30
Modeling Spatial Relationships Using Regression
3:15
Spatial Statistics Best Practices
Th 1:30
Demos
Hot Spot Maps: Minimizing Subjectivity
Geoprocessing and Analysis Demo Theater
W 5:30
Crime Mapping: Using Spatial Statistics
Public Safety Showcase Demo Theater
Th 11:00
Integrating open-source statistical packages Rm 1A 12:00
Working with Temporal Data Rm 28D Th 10:15AM
Resources for learning more
After the conference
QUESTIONS?
www.esriurl.com/spatialstats
Short videos
Articles and blogs
Online documentation
Supplementary model and script tools
Hot Spot, Regression, and ModelBuilder tutorials
LRosenshein@Esri.com
LScott@Esri.com
Esri.com/ucsessionsurveys
Session ID: 117/594
Esri International User Conference
San Diego, California
Technical Workshops | July 25, 2012
Spatial Pattern Analysis:
Mapping Trends and Clusters
Lauren M. Scott, PhD
Lauren Rosenshein Bennett, MS
Resources for learning more
During the conference
Technical Workshops
Room 5A/B
Modeling Spatial Relationships Using Regression
3:15
Spatial Statistics Best Practices
Th 1:30
Demos
Hot Spot Maps: Minimizing Subjectivity
Geoprocessing and Analysis Demo Theater
W 5:30
Crime Mapping: Using Spatial Statistics
Public Safety Showcase Demo Theater
Th 11:00
Integrating open-source statistical packages Rm 1A 12:00
Working with Temporal Data Rm 28D Th 10:15AM
Resources for learning more
After the conference
QUESTIONS?
www.esriurl.com/spatialstats
-
Short videos
Articles and blogs
Online documentation
Supplementary model and script tools
Hot spot, Regression, and ModelBuilder tutorials
resources.arcgis.com
LRosenshein@Esri.com
LScott@Esri.com
Esri.com/ucsessionsurveys
Session ID: 117/739
