Bulgarian Railway Company SWOT Analysis and

methodics for determination of serial failures at new

aquired roling stock
Dimitar Mihaylov
Faculty of International economics and administration
Varna Free University
Varna, Bulgaria
dimitar_mihailov@abv.bg

Abstract SWOT analysis gives the rights steps for the company
development. Methodic for determination of subsistence of serial
error at train systems gives option for performance measure and
quality of new rolling stock
Keywords: SWOT,system failure, methodics, serial error
I. INTRODUCTION
Investments at new railroad allow increase of the speed of
movement of passengers and cargo. Effectiveness of
processing cargo volume, compared with other type of
transport and relation tons/price for kilometer give extreme
advantage for railway transfer, in country with size of Bulgaria.
Unfortunately, there is a trend for separation of country by
axle capital Sofia all other cities. Economic crisis and
unemployment move people in active age to look for new
possibilities. It is recommends financial independence of the
communities and increasing of rights about economic and
social politics, according Institute for market economics. [17]
Practically there is a railway till all regional centers in the
country. This determines possibility for cheap transport for
people and goods for manufacturing at determine regions. If
there is no infrastructure, based on purposeful politics any
region in the country can be developed.
Modern rolling stocks consume rapidly less energy for
carriage of passenger/good, compared with other type of
transport. In example Velaro ICE3 have energy consumption of
0, 33 l/100 km for one passenger. [1] High level of reliability
and low maintenance costs determine return of investment in
short period.
Combination of good railway and rolling stock can be key
factor to form economic advantage low price of the transport
service is precondition for low end price of the goods at equal
other conditions quality, product characteristics, etc. These
collaterally increase competitor capabilities, of the country
economic.
We must finish the job, connected with speed increase
aspect of the quality of offered from us service. One billion
will be invested in the infrastructure. After this, project from
EU must be winning for investment of 300 million euro for
new rolling stock says CO of directors board of holding BDZ
Vladimir Vladimirov. [15]
II. SWOT ANALYSIS OF BDZ PASSENGER SERVICE
Realization of the project for delivery and maintenance of
new rolling stock in Bulgaria, even based at collected
experience is a new decision of transport problem in national
scale with codependences of investment intention, chosen
producer and partner for maintenance own from BDZ or
transfer of duties to joint venture.
Often, because of missing liquid capital, purchasing of the
spare parts is a problem and as solution vehicle with problem
become a donor to provide others ones to keep them running.
As result, available numbers of trains, permanently reduce.
Collateral effects are decrease of shift of movement, reduce of
covered destinations, loose of passengers total negative
income trend, personal release. Restrictive government policy
also contribute to increase debts between firms
providers/partner and BDZ.
At SWOT analysis [5, page 15] are comment strong and
weak sides of company. At next table I extend a range and map
up measure, which execution can lead to stabilization of the
company BDZ Passenger Service .Tables is based at
classic for square SWOT analysis: Options Threads
Strengths Weakness
TABLE I. SWOT ANALYSIS OF THE COMPANY BDZ PASSENGER
SERVICE
Possible Treats
Reduction
of time for
travel, by
increase
of
acceptabl
e speeds
Purchase
of new
rolling
stock -
increase
of comfort
and
quality of
trip
Improvem
ent of
connection
s with other
type of
transport
and
develop of
combine
schema for
service at
directions
Missing of
investmen
ts for
infrastruct
ure
improvem
ent and
speed
increase
Transport
market
liberate
appear of
new firms
for
service
Increase
of
competen
ce from
automobil
e
transport
and
improvem
ent of
quality of
their
service
Build of
highways
will lead
to
increase
of buss
transport
service
and use
of private
cars
S
t
r
o
n
g

s
i
d
e
s

Transport
of big
passenger
quantity
and
organized
groups
No action
need
Organizati
on of
study for
needed
rolling
stock
Coordinatio
n with bus
transport to
cover
places,
without
railways
network
Help to
Rail
network
Company
for joint
venture
projects
Optimizati
on of train
schedule,
increase
of comfort
Creation
of strategy
for price
advantage
at equal
kilometers
,
compared
with bus
transport
Optimizati
on of train
schedule
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Available
technical
capability
and
organizati
on for
serve to
disabled
people
No action
need
No action
need
No action
need
No action
need
No action
need
No action
need
No action
need


Price
differentiat
ion
according
market
segment
and target
groups
No action
need
No action
need
No action
need
Ask in
front of
Governme
nt for
repair of
railroad
Creation
of
strategy
for price
advantag
e at equal
kilometer
s,
compared
with bus
transport
Request
in front of
Governme
nt
reduction
of charge
to use
railroad
for
passenger
service
No action
need


Sell
tickets at
railway
stations,
stops and
inside of
trains
No action
need
Purchase
of tickets
wit SMS
Sell of
tickets via
Internet
No action
need
No action
need
Offer a
combine
train - bus
ticket
Reduce
of price
for car
cargo
with
family trip
W
e
a
k

s
i
d
e
s

Unsatisfie
d condition
of railway
network -
limit of
speed
Recovery
of ICE
trains
from past
Use of
rolling
stock,
adapted
for our
country
No action
need
Creation
of projects
based at
operationa
l programs
of EU
Candidat
e for
governme
nt
subsidy
Use of Wi-
Fi Internet
access at
the trains
No action
need


Increase
of unused
railway
stations ,
reduction
of
informatio
n and
decrease
possibility
to obtain a
ticket
Coordinati
on of train
schedule
with
movemen
t of
people to
and back
from work
No action
need
No action
need
Agreemen
t with
employers
for group
transfer of
workers to
and back
from
factories
Sell of
tickets
from
cahier
inside of
train
without
penalty
No action
need
No action
need


Old rolling
stock, with
low level
of comfort
and low
quality
service
and use a
lot of
money for
maintenan
ce and
repair
Keep of
clean and
comfort
Use a
business
class
No action
need
No action
need
No action
need
No action
need
No action
need


Missing
connection
s with
other type
of
transport,
base at
asymmetr
y transport
schema
and non
rhythmical
serve by
destination
s
Optimizati
on of
schedule
No action
need
Optimizatio
n of
schedule
No action
need
No action
need
No action
need
No action
need
III. SERIAL DEFECT AND SERIAL ERROR
Serial error is that one with persistent quantity, during equal
serial tests, experiments or observing. Usually it is defined as
limit level with expected value, when failures are accumulated.
Serial error has expected value of random variability, with
arithmetical meaning. For separate concrete character, she has
an average weight balanced value, when weight coefficient is
possibility for appearing of values of the variability.
Serial error is also that one, who continue to exist and it
cannot be consider, that she is result of the chance, follow some
determine mathematical of physic low or model and cannot be
compensated even partially trough applying of correction in
example failure, which quantity is change proportionally, when
common change in observing conditions appear, based at
induce of temperature and pressure upon measure device or
object, to be measured.
Usually, when contract is sign, inside there is no description
of what is serial failure, but there is a responsibility, when it is
observed. I will consider serial defects in aspect of serial errors.
Defect we have, when there is significant deviation from
technical request and affect maintainable readiness. Usually
producer gives a warranty for good performance, as percent of
price of the ware for determine period, started after acceptance
of the good.
IV. STATISTICAL DATA AND METHODIC
Research below is based at statistical data at Table 2, for
presence of failure during determine period of time, for specific
device, mount on new rolling stock, owned from Bulgarian
Railway Company Passenger service
Two devices work independently in parallel, at one system
from one technical unit 50 devices at 25 units.
Table below, content type of Device 1 or 2 (equal in design,
structure and functions and grouped by units) and sequence of
failures from first case till forth.
TABLE II. STATISTIC VIEW OF FAILURE SEQUENCE AT DEVICES DURING
OBSERVED PERIOD OF TIME.
S.-
Nr.
Date of first
fail/mount
of modif.
one
S.-
Nr
Date of second
fail/mount of
modif. one
S.-
Nr
Date of
third
fail/mount
of modif.
one
S.-
Nr
Date of
fourth
fail/mount of
modif. one
S.-
Nr
Dev.
1 8 03.08.09 66
Dev.
2 9 03.08.09 78
Dev.
1 1 28.8.2008 47 30.09.08 74 31.08.09 8 31.08.09 9
Dev.
2 2 08.05.09 83
Dev.
1 19 51 54 23.10.2009 8 11.1.2010 75
Dev.
2 20 08.05.09 97 30.07.09 104
Dev.
1 18 10.08.09 49
Dev.
2 16 10.08.09 86
Dev.
1 31 29.12.09 77
Dev.
2 24 29.12.09 87 18.11.10 99
Dev.
1 35 23.4.2008 52 27.10.2010 51
Dev.
2 37 20.06.08 35 19.4.2010 64 20
Dev.
1 40 13.5.2008 114 64
Dev.
2 41 6.6.2008 64 18.12.2009 74 6.8.2010 35
Dev.
1 48 08.10.09 67
Dev.
2 50 29.05.08 19 23.06.08 63
Dev.
1 46 23.04.09 73 30.11.2009 54
Dev.
2 43 01.12.09 48
Dev.
1 47 20.06.08 41
Dev.
2 49 09.05.09 130 25.1.2010 16 20.03.10 100
Dev.
1 104 6.3.2009 84
Dev.
2 54 01.07.08 40 08.08.08 37
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Dev.
1 51 15.07.08 50
Dev.
2 56 22.09.09 70
Dev.
1 66 12.05.09 131
Dev.
2 63 15.7.2008 121
Dev.
1 67 07.08.09 75 27.8.2009 13.01.10 103
Dev.
2 68 07.08.09 46
Dev.
1 84 9.8.2008 19
Dev.
2 76 24.07.09 20
Dev.
1 74 22.7.2008 122
Dev.
2 73 24.10.2008 1
Dev.
1 86 25.05.09 129
Dev.
2 75 30.06.09 102
Dev.
1 79 31.03.10 73
Dev.
2 78 17.6.2009 2 11.01.10 18
Dev.
1 91 08.05.09 97
Dev.
2 70 31.07.09 82
Dev.
1 77 26.09.09 76
Dev.
2 87 26.09.09 91
Dev.
1 103 22.10.09 68
Dev.
2 97 27.11.08 47 19.10.2010 114
Dev.
1 81 06.07.09 94
Dev.
2 101 07.10.09 81
Dev.
1 99 13.11.09 101
Dev.
2 100 13.11.09 56
Dev.
1 102 11.05.09 128
Dev.
2 94 11.05.09 132
Dev.
1 82 40
Dev.
2 83 13.02.09 51 21.06.10 19
Based at the data from table, follow charts were
created:Determine of the quantity index for secondary failures:

Figure 1. Number of errors, during second defined period, after general
modification
From the graphic we can see 5 errors for period 10.08.2010
18.11.2010. Total number of secondary failures is nine.
Determine of the quantity index for primary errors.

Figure 2. Number of errors, during first defined period, after general
modification
Clear from the Graphic 2, we can see groups of errors for
period 01.06.2008 18.12.2008 modification of device was
done, paid from producer. There is another two groups of
errors - 18.12.2008 06.07.2009 and 07.07.2009 22.01.2010.
Failures for observed period - 7.According [9, page 214], based
on the graphic view, we can be determine possible reasons for
unmanageable of the process and be form corrective actions.
Reasons for development of the process:
senescent of the devices
tire of workers
change of the quality in raw materials and slugs
Corrective actions:
repair or change of devices
change of the workers
specifying of the quality for raw materials and slugs
Based at two graphics, we can see middle term of six
months with errors (failures) of 5 7 devices.
Process of error arise is ascending.
According standard IEC 60812/2006 [6] - Analysis
techniques for system reliability procedures for failure mode
and effects analysis point 5.3.5 Determinations of risk
acceptance table 3 described serial error is frequent and
critical. In case of failure of device, the other one take
functions of the first with failure all secondary consumer are
shut down- train cannot be used with passengers collateral
losses are collected.
According describe situation when we juxtaposition
risk/criticality Table 3 from standard, similar system errors
are unwanted.
According same standard, p. 5.3.6.2 possibility for arising
of error must be 0,004 0,006 (for automobile industry). We
have value 0, 18.
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According standard [7] 27.405/84 Reliability of the
techniques, rules for determine of the trusted indexes limits for
reliability, p. 64, Example 1.
50 devices are tested till 20
th
failure. Remain are repaired
for short time, which is not calculated or if it possible are
replaced with new ones. Than possibility for flawlessly work
have values P 0,832 (P high limit =0,885 P low limit
=0,774).
According common theory for availability, we have
followed recommendable values of (possibility for reliability
during work)
= 0, 95 - 0, 99 for responsible base elements;
= 0, 90 - 0, 95 - for not serviceable elements and such,
not included in the set of spare elements to machines;
= 0, 85 - 0, 90 - for serviceable elements and such in the set
of spare elements to machines
From facts up, we can see that 10 secondary failures of
device, reduce possibility for flawlessly work from 1 to 0, 9
and have level = 0, 91, what is the current value of the
flawlessly work of devices in the system of trains.
Even high value of possibilities for error (0, 18), the critical
level for requested availability is not reached - 0, 85- at current
value - 0, 91. Regard facts, system error at devices we did not
observe.
V. CONCLUSIONS
When BDZ EAD will organize a tender for new rolling
stock, choose must be based not at offered lower price, but also
offered complex maintenance from producer:
Strategically parts delivered with trains bogies,
power and auxiliary converters, wheel sets,
pantographs, windows.
Presence of maintenance team for warranty and repair
at depot for service
Total warranty of the trains, components and systems
After warranty service spare parts availability, terms
for repairs, prices
Documentation in Bulgarian language
Training of maintenance personal
Diagnostic programs for maintenance, telemetric
observe of parameters
Observe of trains, used in other countries, produced
from some important tender participants
Comfort criteria, class of equipment and safety must be
defined before tender. Winner must offer complex service of
warranty, maintenance and repair at lower price in long term.
In the contract, both sides must determine value, below which,
actions can be held or requested. This will enhance trust
between them and define responsibilities and necessary actions
in example to include spare devices or parts in initiation pack
for delivery.
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