Fiscal Space and Financial Stability: A Differential Analysis

The U.S. vs. The Eurozone

Stephanie Kelton, Ph.D. FIELDS-INET November 1, 2013

The Orthodox Perspective: A One-Size Fits All Attempt to Define Fiscal Space

Government Budget Constraint

G + iB = T + !B + !M
Assumptions: Govt spending is financed by T + !B Financing govt spending via !M is inflationary Constraint is thus to select G such that !M = 0

Intertemporal Budget Constraint

Blanchard et al. 1990 !B = G T + iB (note no !M)

Rewriting in real terms and as % of real GDP: !b = g - t + (r ")b For any time, n, in the future . . . bN = b0(1+r-")N + #(g-t)(1+r-")N-k Taking present value . . . PV bN = b0 + PV projected #(g-t)

Also, since then

PV bN = bN / (1+r-")N, Limit PV bN as N$% = 0

Thus, for fiscal sustainability,

0 = b0 + PV projected #(g-t) -b0 = PV projected #(g-t)

In (Other) Words
! The cumulative discounted present value of the expected future surpluses must be equal to the current national debt outstanding ! If that condition is not satisfied, then the debt is not sustainable ! Government would have to eventually repudiate its debt, either by an outright default or through the use of inflation

Resulting in Claims Like This

Fiscal space (shaded area) runs out as government approaches the debt limit

Bad Assumptions Are Driving the Model

Californias bond rating has sunk to a level just above junk status . . . . California is teaching the U.S. a valuable lesson about the connection between fiscal policy and financial markets. Unless action is taken very soon to reform the main U.S. benefit programmes, Washington may have to grapple with the same crisis currently preoccupying Sacramento. Unresolved, the situation could cause U.S. Treasury yields to rise sharply, wreaking havoc on the national economy.
Gokhale and Smetters, Financial Times (9/7/03)

Isnt that What Happened in Greece?

Whats Different About the US?

! In modern (or sovereign money) systems operating with flexible exchange rates, interest rates on the national debt are a matter of political economy ! This has significant implications for the appropriate mix of monetary and fiscal policies, particularly if full employment and financial stability are considered fundamental goals of macroeconomic policy.
~ Scott Fullwiler, 2006

Fullwiler on Fiscal Sustainability

! In short, the orthodox concept of fiscal sustainability is flawed due to its assumption that a key variable the interest rate paid on the national debt is set in private financial markets as in the orthodox loanable funds framework

The MMT Perspective

The Financial Balance Approach to Macro Stability

! Understood by J.M. Keynes and early Keynesians like Nicholas Kaldor, Abba Lerner, and Joan Robinson ! Lost in the headlong rush over the past three decades of mainstream macroeconomics to become a special branch of microeconomics, which itself appears to have become a special branch of applied calculus in some sort of rather twisted physics envy. (Parenteau, 2009)

Without an expansionary fiscal policy, real output cannot grow for long.
~ Wynne Godley, 2000

Why?
! Because the US runs persistent current account deficits ! This has important implications for financial stability ! Godley relied on the sector balance framework to undertake his analyses ! Showed that countries with current account deficits would need to run budget deficits most of the time

Why Does it Have to be Government?

! The US household sector cannot net save in nominal terms (spend less money than it earns) unless some other sector (or combination of sectors) is willing and able to spend more money than it earns. ! It can be the government, the business, or the foreign sector or some mix of the three ! But keep in mind, of the three, a government with a sovereign currency (not convertible into fixed quantities of a commodity or another currency on demand) and no debt denominated in foreign currencies is the only one of those three that cannot go bankrupt and cannot default on its debt while continuously deficit spending unless it chooses to default for some odd political reason

Are Deficits Responsible?

Godley Was a Deficit Owl

He understood that this sector could only net save if these sectors (on balance) spent more than their income

In Any Given Period

! The sector balances show whether a particular part of the economy is:
! Spending more than its income
! Running a Deficit

! Spending less than its income

! Running a Surplus

! Spending just equal to its income

! Balancing its Budget

Rules of the Game

! Three Sectors
! Domestic Private ! Domestic Public ! Foreign (Rest of the World)

! Two Rules
! They cant all be in surplus ! They cant all be in deficit

A Simple Accounting Fact

$$$$$
Government (Public) Sector

Non-Government Sector
(Households, Firms, International Trade)

$$$$$

Government Surplus = Non-government Deficit Government Deficit = Non-government Surplus

In Any Nation
! In practice, at least one sector will always be in deficit ! Who should it be? ! Godley understood that the private sector achieved a habitual state of surplus and that private sector deficits were unsustainable ! Expansions driven by a decline in private net saving were inevitably followed by a severe recession

Beware Swings in Private Net Saving

The Private Sector Belongs in Surplus

! An increase in private debt relative to income can go on for a long time, but it cannot go on forever. (Godley, 2000) ! At some point lenders will run out of creditworthy borrowers who are willing to spend ! When that happens asset prices go sideways, sales soften, jobless claims trend higher, and economic activity falters (Wray, 2012)

The Private Sector Cannot Create Its Own Net Financial Assets
! Assets and liabilities cancel each other out
! Loans create deposits

! Net financial assets must come from outside the domestic private sector
! Private Sector = Public Sector + Current Account

Surplus (S I)

Deficit (G T)

Surplus (X M)

! If the Public Sector is running a deficit and the current account is in surplus, the private sector will necessarily be in surplus

What if the CA is Not in Surplus?

! Can the private sector still achieve a surplus? ! Yes, but only if the government deficit is bigger than the current account deficit
EX: 1% = 4% - 3%

! This means that countries with current account deficits must run even bigger budget deficits (as % of GDP) in order to keep the private sector in surplus

Rest of World runs (+) balance against US Govt runs (+)

Priv. Sect. goes (-)

What Does this Mean for the EZ?

CA Deficit (2012Q1, Millions of !)
Belgium Estonia Ireland Greece Spain France Italy Cyprus Malta Portugal Slovenia Finland AVERAGE -1,422 -86 -1,045 -4,721 -14,444 -9,626 -13,067 -718 -54 -1,264 -77 -1,191 -3,976

CA Surplus (2012Q1, Millions of !)

Germany Netherlands Austria Slovakia AVERAGE +41,068 +17,454 +3,210 +648 +12,659

14 of the EUR-17 run current account deficits

How Germany Crushed the Competition

! The rise of German competitiveness began under Chancellor Schroeder in the early 2000s ! The Hartz Commission and then Agenda 2010
! Curtailed the power of labor unions and craft guilds ! Made it easier for employers to hire/fire at will ! Cut unemployment benefits so that Germans now receive unemployment benefits for about half as long as an unemployed American

Current Account 1996

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0% Percent of GDP

0.0% Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France

-1.0%

-2.0%

-3.0%

-4.0%

Current Account 1997

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0% Portugal Percent of GDP -1.0% Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France

-2.0%

-3.0%

-4.0%

-5.0%

-6.0%

-7.0%

Current Account 1998

4.0%

2.0%

0.0% Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France

Percent of GDP

-2.0%

-4.0%

-6.0%

-8.0%

Current Account 1999

4.0%

2.0%

0.0% Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France

Percent of GDP

-2.0%

-4.0%

-6.0%

-8.0%

-10.0%

Current Account 2000

4.0%

2.0%

0.0% Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France

-2.0% Percent of GDP

-4.0%

-6.0%

-8.0%

-10.0%

-12.0%

Current Account 2001

4.0%

2.0%

0.0% Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France

-2.0% Percent of GDP

-4.0%

-6.0%

-8.0%

-10.0%

-12.0%

Current Account 2002

4.0%

2.0%

0.0% Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France

Percent of GDP

-2.0%

-4.0%

-6.0%

-8.0%

-10.0%

Current Account 2003

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0% Portugal -1.0% Percent of GDP Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France

-2.0%

-3.0%

-4.0%

-5.0%

-6.0%

-7.0%

Current Account 2004

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0% Portugal Percent of GDP Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France

-2.0%

-4.0%

-6.0%

-8.0%

-10.0%

Current Account 2005

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0% Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France

Percent of GDP

-2.0%

-4.0%

-6.0%

-8.0%

-10.0%

-12.0%

Current Account 2006

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0% Portugal Percent of GDP -2.0% Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France

-4.0%

-6.0%

-8.0%

-10.0%

-12.0%

-14.0%

Current Account 2007

10.0%

5.0%

0.0% Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France

Percent of GDP

-5.0%

-10.0%

-15.0%

-20.0%

Current Account 2008

10.0%

5.0%

0.0% Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France

Percent of GDP

-5.0%

-10.0%

-15.0%

-20.0%

Current Account 2009

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0% Portugal -2.0% Percent of GDP Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France

-4.0%

-6.0%

-8.0%

-10.0%

-12.0%

-14.0%

Current Account 2010

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0% Percent of GDP Portugal -2.0% Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France

-4.0%

-6.0%

-8.0%

-10.0%

-12.0%

Current Account 2011

8.0%

6.0%

Who won?

4.0%

2.0%

0.0% Percent of GDP Portugal -2.0% Italy Ireland Greece Spain Germany France

-4.0%

-6.0%

-8.0%

-10.0%

-12.0%

Fiscal Space with EMU

[T]he power to issue its own money, to make drafts on its own central bank, is the main thing which defines national independence. If a country gives up or loses this power, it acquires the status of a local authority or colony.
~Wynne Godley, 1992

Permissible Space for Sovereign Issuers

Fiscal Surplus

Current Account Deficit

Current Account Surplus

PSB = 0 Fiscal Deficit

May Face Self-Imposed Constraints

! Debt ceiling ! No overdraft rule ! Fed cannot buy directly

There are No Market Constraints

The treasury can always raise money by issuing securities. The bond vigilantes really have it backwards. There is always more demand for treasuries than can be allocated from a limited supply of new issues in each auction; the winners in the auctions get to place their funds in the safest most liquid form of instrument there is for US dollars; the losers are stuck keeping some of their funds in banks, with bank risk.
~Frank N. Newman, 2013

United States

The Financial Balance Model

Fiscal Surplus

Current Account Deficit

Current Account Surplus

Domestic Private Sector Financial Balance = 0

Fiscal Deficit

Sustainable Space for Sovereign Issuers

Fiscal Surplus

Current Account Deficit

Current Account Surplus

PSB = 0 Fiscal Deficit

Permissible Space Under Maastricht

Fiscal Surplus

Current Account Deficit

Current Account Surplus -3%

Fiscal Deficit

Possible Space for EMU Nations with CA Surpluses

Fiscal Surplus

Current Account Deficit

Current Account Surplus -3%

Fiscal Deficit

Sustainable Space for EMU Nations with CA Surplus

Fiscal Surplus

Current Account Deficit

Current Account Surplus -3%

Fiscal Deficit

Possible Space for EMU Nations with CA Deficits

Fiscal Surplus

Current Account Deficit

Current Account Surplus -3%

Fiscal Deficit

Sustainable Space for EMU Nations with CA Deficits

Fiscal Surplus

Current Account Deficit

Current Account Surplus -3%

Fiscal Deficit

The German Problem

! Germanys CA surpluses are increasingly viewed as problematic ! Projected to exceed 6% of GDP this year ! Soros insists that the EZ cannot hold together as long as countries are divided into two classes ! The European Commission now issues a Macroeconomic Imbalance Scorecard
! Includes a 6% threshold on current account surpluses ! Threshold on deficits is 4% ! Possible penalties for exceeding these targets

Permissible Space With Scorecard Rules

Fiscal Surplus

Current Account Deficit

Current Account Surplus -3%

-4% Fiscal Deficit

+6%

In a sense, the budget deficit can be considered an artificial surplus.

~Michael Kalecki

Implications?
! If the Eurozone is to survive, it must become a transfer union. And rather soon. (Alvarez, 2012) ! Germany must help countries regain competitiveness (Soros, 2012) ! The only way out of this predicament is to shift to domestic demand-led development strategies (Kregel, 2010) ! Allowing prices and wages to adjust downward will not restore employment and growth (Terzi, 2010)

Bottom Line
! The US, UK, Japan, Canada, etc. enjoy a degree of fiscal space that is not available to most countries in the Eurozone ! Government budget constraints as usually conceived are not inapplicable to EZ nations ! Market discipline is a real thing ! One way or another, policy must ensure that private sector balances are normally in (+) ! The problem is that countries that lack sovereign money may also lack the fiscal space to help the private sector achieve its habitual state of surplus

Thank You!
Follow me on Twitter @stephaniekelton