POLYTECHNIC UNIVERSITY OF THE PHILIPPINES College of Engineering Department of Electrical Engineering

Introduction to Power System Engineering

JAYSON A. FRANCISCO, REE2010
jjaysonfrancisco@gmail.com

Course Objectives
To facilitate the Electrical Engineering students understanding on how the electric power system generation, transmission, and distribution is planned, developed, operated, and controlled.

Understanding the language of Power System Engineers

Power System Engineering

Power engineering, also called power systems engineering, is a subfield of electrical engineering that deals with the generation, transmission and distribution of electric power as well as the electrical devices connected to such systems including generators, motors and transformers.
Source: Wikipedia

Areas of Power System Engineering

1. Fault Studies 2. Load Flow Studies 3. Power System Reliability 4. Power System Operations and Control 5. Economic Operations of Power System 6. Power System Protection 7. Surge Protection and Power Transient 8. Power System Planning 9. Power Quality 10. Power System Dynamics and Stability

Power System Engineering

Generation Transmission Subtransmission Distribution

Prof. Jayson A. Francisco, REE

Power System Engineering

Prof. Jayson A. Francisco, REE

Power System Engineering

Prof. Jayson A. Francisco, REE

Power System Engineering

Prof. Jayson A. Francisco, REE

Power System Engineering

Prof. Jayson A. Francisco, REE

Power System Engineering

Prof. Jayson A. Francisco, REE

Power System Engineering

Prof. Jayson A. Francisco, REE

Power System Engineering

Prof. Jayson A. Francisco, REE

Electric Power Industry Structure: MONOPOLY

IPPs NPC GenCo NPC GenCo IPPs

NPC

DU

EC

Direct
(Bulk-users)

DU/EC

Generation NPC, IPPs (IPPs - wholesale contract with NPC and some distribution companies) Transmission NPC Distribution and supply distribution utilities, electric cooperatives, directlyconnected customers

End-users

Prof. Jayson A. Francisco, REE

Generation

Prof. Jayson A. Francisco, REE

Electric Power Industry Structure: COMPETITIVE MARKET

IPP IPP IPP IPP

WESM (Market Operator)

Network Service Provider System Operator

DU Supplier/
Aggregator

Direct
(Bulkusers)

DU

End-users

Competitive generation Wholesale electricity spot market (WESM) Open access to high voltage wires Regulated transmission and distribution system Open access to distribution networks Retail competition

Electricity Supply Meets Demand Instantaneously

Generation
Transmission Subtransmission Distribution

Electric energy is generated in response to demands from consumers to keep balance between load and generation. The processes of generation, transmission, distribution and consumption are instantaneous: the moment load is switched on energy must be produce to meet demand. A delay of the generation response to demand will cause imbalance in the in the power system and will be reflected as an error in system frequency Any failure in the processes mentioned can also cause an imbalance in the power system and will be reflected as a system frequency deviation.

Demand (MW)
3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000

0:00:00 0:59:56 1:59:48 2:59:41 3:59:57 4:59:54 5:59:47 6:59:40 7:59:34 8:59:32 9:59:27 10:59:22 11:59:45 12:59:43 13:59:37 15:00:00 15:59:58 17:00:04 18:00:00 18:59:43 19:59:37 20:59:36 21:59:28 22:59:21

System Load Sample Date: August 18, 2006

Generation Schedule

System Load and Generation Balance

Time (hh:mm:ss)

System Load

Analogy of Load-Generation Balance in Relation to System Frequency

System Frequency Transmission
60

Generation Loads

Generation > = Load; System Frequency > < = 60 Hz <

Demand (MW)
3,000 59.40 59.60 59.80 60.00 60.20 60.40 60.60 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000

Frequency (Hz)

0:00:00 1:00:13 2:00:17 3:00:24 4:00:55 5:01:03 6:01:03 7:01:07 8:01:11 9:01:20 10:01:25 11:01:28 12:02:01 13:02:10 14:02:13 15:02:45 16:02:51 17:03:00 18:03:04 19:03:10 20:03:15 21:03:28 22:03:33 23:03:37
Tim e (hh:m m :ss)

Sample Date: August 28, 2006

System Frequency Indicates Balance

A closer look at system balance

60.60 60.40

Frequency (Hz)

60.20 60.00 59.80 59.60 59.40 4,400

Maximum positive intra-hour variation

4,300

Demand (MW)

4,200

Linear ramping
Maximum negative intra-hour variation

4,100

4,000

3,900

7:00:00

7:04:56

7:09:53

7:14:49

7:19:46

7:24:43

7:29:40

7:34:37

7:39:34

7:44:30

7:49:27

7:54:24

Tim e (hh:m m :ss)

Sample Date: August 28, 2006

Note: Blue line indicate zero load forecast error and zero dispatch tolerance.

7:59:21

Ensuring Load-Generation Balance

Load Forecasting hourly demand projection within tolerance limit Outage Scheduling accurate planning and implementation of outages Dispatch Scheduling adequate operating margin for reserve and energy

Dispatch Implementation linear ramping within dispatch tolerance limits

Reserve Response adequate reserve capacity allocation and response Compliance Monitoring real-time energy and reserve dispatch

Reserve Maintains Load-Generation Balance

60

Reserve used to compensate imbalance Reserve

Insufficient Reserve can Lead to Load Interruption

60

Load Dropping

Causes of Imbalances in the Grid

Intra-hour load variations
Hourly forecast errors

Dispatch target deviations

Loss of generating unit Depleted reserve capacity

Reserves as Ancillary Services are Categorized and Defined Based on Their Purpose:
Regulating Reserve- also called Frequency Regulation and Load
Following; a generating capacity from a Qualified Generating Unit allocated to cover intra-hour variations in demand, deviations from generation schedules and hourly forecasts errors.

Contingency Reserve - a generating capacity from a Qualified

Generating Unit allocated to cover loss of a synchronized generating unit or power imported from a single-circuit interconnection.

Dispatchable Reserve - generating capacity from a Qualified

Generating Unit allocated to replenish or free up Contingency Reserve allocations within a trading interval.

Basic Characteristics of Reserves

1. Adequacy sufficient capacity must be allocated to cover the imbalance within the specified period 2. Timing the speed of response should satisfy frequency control requirement 3. Accuracy the response should be correctly proportional to the imbalance

Power Generation Process

Hydro Geothermal Oil thermal Coal thermal Combined-cycle Gas turbine

Turbine Energy Source

Valve/Gate

Mechanical Energy

Generator

Electrical Energy

Increase/decrease generation

Primary Control
Frequency

Feed-forward Controls

Speed Governor Secondary Control

Grid

Manual Control Energy Management System/ Automatic Generation Control

Frequency Voltage Real Power Reactive Power Breaker Status RTD Target

Relative Time Frame of Reserve Responses

Over Generation Generator Tripping Generation Reduction Primary Regulating Reserve Primary Contingency Reserve Secondary Regulating Reserve
New Market Dispatch Schedule

Time

Secondary Contingency Reserve Manual Load Dropping

Automatic Load Dropping 60 sec Dispatch Interval 5 min Trading Interval = 1 hr

Dispatchable Reserves

TRANSMISSION SYSTEM

Electric Power System

Geothermal Plant (Embedded Generators) Coal Plant

End Users

Hydro Plant

End Users

Generation System

Transmission System

Distribution System

How is Electricity Transported and Distributed?

Transmission System
Transport electricity from the generating plants to the distribution facilities.

Operates at very high voltages Uses a loop configuration Interconnect one Electric Power System to another

Source:Unknown

How is Electricity Transported and Distributed?

Distribution System
The system of wires and associated facilities that are owned and operated by a franchised distribution utility.

Used to deliver electric energy to End-Users; Extends between Transmission System and End-User premises;

How is Electricity Transported and Distributed?

Power = Voltage x Current

Transporting bulk power (large amount of energy in short time) will require large current. This means bigger conductors. Transporting the same bulk power in higher voltage will result in lower current. This means smaller conductors.

How is Electricity Transported and Distributed?

STEP-UP TRANSFORMER STEP-DOWN TRANSFORMER

How is Electricity Transported and Distributed?

Power Transformer at High Voltage Substation (Power Plant and Transmission)

How is Electricity Transported and Distributed?

Power Transformer at Distribution Substation

PDUs: 69/13.8 kV ECs 67/13.2 kV

How is Electricity Transported and Distributed?

Transmission Lines

Source: IEEE-USA

How is Electricity Transported and Distributed?

LABRADOR BOTOLAN BPPC BAUANG

2X300MW

~
MCFTPP KADAMPAT 230KV 500KV

~
SCFTPP

2X650MW LA TRINIDAD

OLONGAPO

BINGA 230KV

SUBIC SAN MANUEL NEW 500KV

SAN MANUEL OLD

HERMOSA

500KV SAN JOSE LOAD CENTER 230KV MEXICO

Transmission System

Loop Configuration

How is Electricity Transported and Distributed?

Outdoor High Voltage Switchyard

How is Electricity Transported and Distributed?

Three Transmission Grids:

Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao

Transmission Voltages

Luzon : 230 and 500 kV Visayas : 69, 138 and 230 kV Mindanao : 69 and 138 kV
Luzon and Visayas Grids are interconnected via a 350 kV HVDC submarine cable

How is Electricity Transported and Distributed?

Subtransmission Lines Primary Distribution Lines (Main Feeder)

Substation Transformer

Primary Distribution Lines (Laterals)

Misc Loads

Secondary Distribution Lines

Distribution System
Distribution Transformer

Service Drop

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

How is Electricity Transported and Distributed?

Distribution Lines Primary Voltage 13.2kV (Three Phase) 7.6kV (Single Phase) Secondary Voltage 240V

How is Electricity Transported and Distributed?

Pole-Mounted Transformer

Pad-Mounted Transformer

Distribution Transformers

How is Electricity Consumed?

RESIDENTIAL

COMMERCIAL

INDUSTRIAL

How is Electricity Consumed?

PEAK
100

Percent of Peak Load

80 60 40 20

OFFPEAK

Load Profile of Residential Customer

4 8 12 4 8 12

12

How is Electricity Consumed?

100

PEAK

Percent of Peak Load

80
60

40OFF20

PEAK

Load Profile of Commercial Customer

4 8 12 4 8 12

12

How is Electricity Consumed?

100

PEAK

Percent of Peak Load

80
60

OFFPEAK

40
20

0
12 4 8 12 4 8 12

Load Profile of Industrial Customer

How is Electricity Consumed?

Average Demand Load Factor Peak Demand

Energy Annual kWh Average Demand Time 8760 hrs

Annual kWh / 8760 Load Factor Peak Demand

How is Electricity Consumed?

COINCIDENT PEAK
NON-COINCIDENT PEAK

By Customer Class

By Delivery Point

True or False?
When electrical current is given multiple conductive paths on which to flow, current will only take the path of least resistance (impedance).

Grid Power Flow

Flow from generation point to purchase point uses every transmission path available Flow on each intermediate transmission facility is determined by its impedance

What happens a when line opens?

Line A from 1 to 3 is closed from region A. Color represents flow on Line A What happens when Line A ( from 1 to 3 ) open?
Line A

What happens a when line opens?

Line A from 1 to 3 trips. Power Flow must go elsewhere !!! Conditions change immediately all over the grid. This rerouting of power flow can create another abnormal situation and additional trip.
Line A

Power and Energy

When Electric Current Flows: Work is Done
(Light, heat, motion is produced)

Energy is the Work done (measured in watt-hours)

1 kilowatt-hour of electric energy = 1,000 watt-hours

Power is the rate at which Energy is generated, transported or consumed (measured in watts, kilowatt, Megawatts)

Power and Energy

Energy (kW-Hr) Power (kW) = Time (Hr)

Low Power
Fewer Electrons per hour

High Power
More Electrons per hour

Power of Electric Bulbs

Power and Energy

Rate of Consuming 100 kW-Hrs of Energy 5 Hrs vs. 2 Hrs 50 40

kW 20 10

kW 30
20

100 kW-Hrs
1 2 3 Hrs 4 5

10

1 2 Hrs

Which requires larger electrical equipment?

100 kW-Hrs

Power and Energy

Power in AC Circuits (Power System)
Active Power (kW)

Reactive Power (kVar)

Active Power Real Power Consumed (W, kW, MW) Reactive Power Power required by energy conversion equipment but not consumed (Var, kVar, Mvar) Apparent Power Vectorial Sum of Active and Reactive Power (VA, kVA, MVA)

Power and Energy

Power Factor - measures the efficiency of utilization of power equipment

Active Power
Power Factor = Apparent Power
Apparent Power kVA Reactive Power kVar Definition of most engineers???

Active Power kW

PF = Cos

Power and Energy

POWER FACTOR
? kVA 80 kVar

100 kW

? kVA 40 kVar

100 kW

PF =

PF =

Power and Energy

POWER FACTOR
75 KVAR 133.33 KVAR

102 KVAR

48.43 KVAR

100 KW

100 KW

100 KW

100 KW

100 KW

100 KVA PF = 1.00

111.11 KVA PF = 0.90

125 KVA PF = 0.80

142.86 KVA PF = 0.70

166.67KVA PF = 0.60

Reactive and Apparent Power at different power factor for constant Active Power

Power and Energy

POWER FACTOR
43.59 KVAR
100 KW 60 KVAR 71.41 KVAR 80 KVAR

90 KW

80 KW

70 KW

60 KW

100 KVA PF =1.00

100 KVA PF = 0.90

100 KVA PF = 0.80

100 KVA PF= 0.70

100 KVA PF = 0.60

Active Power that can be supplied by the same equipment at different Power Factor

Power System Operation and Control

How is the Power System Operated?

Geothermal Plant (Embedded Generators)

Coal Plant

End Users

Hydro Plant

End Users

Generation System

Transmission System

Distribution System

How is the Power System Operated?

System Demand
5 4 3 2 1

Operating Criteria
Frequency Regulation

Voltage Regulation
Outage Contingency Economic Operation
Spinning Reserves

MW

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Standby Reserves

HOUR

Economic Operation
(Generation Control)
The objective of economic operation is to ensure that the production cost of electricity is a minimum. The optimization is done in stages, usually an annual optimization (long range), followed by a monthly or biweekly optimization period (midterm), and finally a daily optimization period with hourly intervals (short term).
Annual Hydro-Thermal Coordination
Optimize the electric energy consumption from hydro-electric power plants

Unit Commitment
Bi-weekly or monthly schedule of available thermal generating plants

Economic Dispatch
Hourly schedule of committed generating plants over a twenty four hour period, the result in minimum production cost

Power System Engineering for Non-Engineers

Economic Operation
(Generation Control) Economic Operation
(Generation Control)

77

The annual optimization considers seasonal changes (La Nina, El Nino) The annual optimization considers seasonal changes The Optimization study must also take into account the rate of every (El Nino, La Nina). hydro plant and the effects of the hydro plants in cascade.
The optimization study must also take into account the rule curve of every hydro plant and the effect of hydro plants in cascade.

Hydro Plant Rule Curve

77

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MARKET TRADING MECHANISMS

Trading Participant (TP) Market Operator (MO)
Power Market

System Operator (SO)

Power System

Generator

DU/EC/Bulk-users

Market Network Model System Demand Forecast

Market Input Data: Energy offers and bids Reserve offers

Market Results: Prices and Schedules

Market Management System

Market Dispatch Optimization Model (MDOM) Pricing and Scheduling

System Condition: System Snapshot Outages/contingencies Transmission limits Reserve Requirements

Dispatch Instructions: Dispatch targets

Settlement and Billing Collections and Payments

Revenue Meters: Metered values

Power System Engineering for Non-Engineers

Economic Operation
Unit Commitment
Consider Interval i Form Unit Selection List

78

Economic Operation

Examine one combination of units

PERFORM DISPATCH
Yes

Satisfy Op. Constraints & Spinning Reserve?

No Yes

Compute Total Cost & Store Most Economical Strategy

Anymore Combinations?
No

No

Last interval

Yes

Output UC Schedule

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Scheduling and Dispatch

(Dry Season)
6000
SYSTEM DEMAND PEAKING HYDRO

5000
OIL

BASED PLANT

4000

3000
COAL BASED PLANT

2000
MERALCO IPP'S (STA RITA,QPL,DURACOM)

1000
GEOTHERMAL BASE HYDRO HVDC - LEYTE
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

H O U R

Power System Engineering for Non-Engineers

80

The Electricity Market under EPIRA

GenCo1

GenCo2

GenCoN Generators

Competitive
Regulated

TRANSMISSION COMPANY (NGCP)

SPOT MARKET

BILATERAL CONTRACTS

DU 1

DU 2

DU n

End Users

End Users

End Users

Competitive Retail Market

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Power System Engineering for Non-Engineers

Dispatch Scheduling in WESM

Three generating companies 0

A with capacity of 3 0MW at price 0 of P 1500 B with capacity of 3 0MW at price 0 of P 1800 C with capacity of 5 0MW at price of P 2400

Demand: 550MWh at P 7500 - effectively fixed demand 150MWh at P 2100 - dispatchable load that will only be used if the price is below P2100 per MWh

Dispatch Schedule in WESM

Determining Schedules and System Marginal Price

Price (P/MWh) System Demand

Offers to Sell System Marginal Price

G2

G3 G3

G4

G1
Quantity Quantity (MW)

How is the Power System Operated?

Frequency must be maintained at 60 Hz

Major Problem
Generation Load Imbalance If generation is less than load -> frequency drops If generation is greater than load -> frequency rises If frequency goes too far from 60 Hz the generators are taken off the line. Often happens if you isolate part of the power system.

Generation

Load

Generation vs Load Balance

How is the Power System Operated

PGC 3.2.2.2
The control of system frequency shall be the responsibility of the System Operator. The System Operator shall maintain the fundamental frequency within the limits of 59.4 and 60.6 during the normal conditions. However, the System Operator shall intervene within the frequency limits of 59.7 Hz and 60.3 Hz are breached.

Power System Engineering for Non-Engineers

84

How is the Power System How is the Power System Operated Operated?
Frequency Regulating Power Plant
Transmission System

Spinning Power Plant

Scheduled Power Plant

Back-up Power Plant

wer System Engineering for Non-Engineers

ANCILLARY SERVICES
Load- Following Reserve Spinning Reserve Backup Reserve Reactive Power Support Black Start

How is the Power System Operated?

59.7HZ In Any Order of Priority MOT Contingency Reserve Dispatchable Reserve MRU Demand Control

60HZ

60.3HZ
MOT Plants

Regulating Reserve

How is the Power System Operated?

65 64 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56 55 54 53 52 51 50 0 1 2 3

60.3 Hz PGC Limits 59.7 Hz

Frequency

Frequency Regulation

10

Time (sec)

How is the Power System Operated?

In case the Power System Frequency momentarily rises to 62.4 Hz or falls to 57.6 Hz, all Generating Units shall remain in synchronism with the Grid for at least five (5) seconds to allow the System Operator to undertake measures to correct the situation.

Power System Engineering for Non-Engineers

Frequency and Voltage Control

Frequency Control. Can be achieved by the timely use of Frequency Regulating Reserve, Contingency Reserve and Demand Control. Voltage Control. Can be achieved by managing the reactive power supply in the Grid through the use of: Synchronous Condensers;

Static VAR Compensators; Shunt Capacitors and Reactors; and On-Load Tap Changing Transformers.
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Operating Margin
Frequency Regulating Reserve. Refers to a generating unit that assists in frequency control by providing automatic primary and/or secondary frequency response. Also called load following reserve. Contingency Reserve. Generating capacity that is intended to take care of the loss of the largest synchronized generating unit or the power import from a single grid interconnection, whichever is larger. Contingency reserve includes Spinning Reserve and Back-up Reserve.
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Demand Control
The reduction in demand for the control of the frequency when the Grid is in the Emergency State. This includes:

Automatic Load Dropping; Manual Load Dropping; Customer Demand Management; and Voluntary Load Curtailment

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System Islanding
An island grid is created when a generating plant or a group of generating plants is isolated from the rest of the Grid but is capable of sustaining the supply of electricity to the customers within the island grid. Whenever an island grid exists, the System Operator shall undertake the resynchronization of the island grid with the rest of the Grid.

Power System Engineering for Non-Engineers

90

System Blackout
Partial System Blackout. The condition when a part of the Grid is isolated from the rest of the Grid and all generation in the isolated part of the Grid has shut down. Total System Blackout. The condition all generation in the Grid has ceased and the entire system has shut down.

BROWNOUT?
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Black Start
The process of recovery from a total system blackout using a generating unit with the capability to start and synchronize with the system without an external power supply. The process includes: Creation of Island Grids;

Integration of Island Grids; and Restoration of the entire Grid.

How is the Power System Operated?

Single Outage Contingency Criteria

Loss of one: * Lines * Transformers * Generators * Major Loads

Shall not result in power quality degradation and customer interruption

How is the Power System Operated?

PGC 6.2.2.3
The Security and Reliability of the Grid shall be based on the Single Outage Contingency criterion. This criterion specifies that the Grid shall continue to operate in the NORMAL STATE following the loss of one Generating Unit, transmission line, or transformer.

How is the Power System Operated?

PGC 6.2.1.1 The Grid shall be considered to be in the NORMAL State when:
The Operating margin is sufficient; The Grid frequency is within the limits of 59.4 and 60.6 Hz, as specified in Section 3.2.2; The voltages at all Connection Points are within the limits of 0.95 and 1.05 of the nominal value, as specified in Section 3.2.3;

How is the Power System Operated?

PGC 6.2.1.1 The Grid shall be considered to be in the NORMAL State when:
The loading levels of all transmission lines and substation Equipment are below 100% of the maximum continuous ratings of the phase conductors and transformers as certified and submitted by the Grid Owners. Deviations may only be acceptable on contingency that depends on the condition of the facility subject to monitoring of the GMC; The Grid configuration is such that any potential fault current can be interrupted and faulted Equipment can be isolated from the Grid.

The Bulk Power Supply

Elaborate, complex, interconnection of power components which make up an interconnected power system
When we talk about reliability and security of power systems, we are interested in what we call BULK POWER SUPPLY SYSTEM. The part of the network which connects the power plants, the major substations, and the main EHV/HV lines. Interruptions in the bulk power supply are very serious
Many Users are affected by these interruptions are very serious They can be costly

Reliability
Reliability of a power system refers to the probability of its satisfactory operation over the long run. It denotes the ability to supply adequate electric service on a nearly continuous basis to supply adequate electric service on a nearly continuous basis, with few interruptions over an extended time period.
-IEEE Paper on Terms and Definitions 2004

Reliability
Reliability has two (2) components: 1. Security the ability of the electric power system to withstand sudden disturbances such as electric short circuits or unanticipated loss of system elements.
2. Adequacy the ability of the electric power system to supply the aggregate electric demand and energy requirements of their customers at all times, taking into account scheduled and reasonably expected unscheduled outage of system elements.

Reliability
Any consequence of a credible disturbance that requires a limit.

Security

Overload Security

Voltage Security
Low Voltage
Unstable Voltage

Angle/Frequency Security Rotors angle instability

Transformer Overload

Line Overload

Frequency instability

Static Security

Dynamic Security

Requirements of a Reliable Electric Power System

1. Steady-state and transient voltages and frequency must be held within close tolerances. 2. Steady-state flows must be within circuit limits. 3. Synchronous generators must be kept running in parallel with adequate capacity to meet the load demand. 4. Maintain the integrity of the bulk power network (avoid cascading outages)

Requirements of a Reliable Electric Power System

ONE ASPECT OF SYSTEM SECURITY IS THE ABILITY OF THE SYSTEM TO STAY TOGETHER. THE KEY IS THAT THE GENERATORS CONTINUE TO OPERATE IN SYNCHRONISM OR NOT TO GO OUT OF STEP. THIS IS THE PROBLEM OF POWER SYSTEM STABILITY

Power System Planning

The Power System Planning Problem

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Lead Times

DISTRIBUTION

PLANNING HORIZONS
Perspectives > 15 Years Long Term 5 15 Years Medium Term

TRANSMISSION PEAKING CYCLING BASE FOSSIL HYDROELECTRIC NUCLEAR STRATEGIC PLANNING Source: Expansion Planning Guidebook, IAEA

2 5 Years
Short Term 1hr 2 Years

The Power System Planning Problem

Committed and Patching Period Committed Period: 1 to 5 years

Committed projects
Patching Period: beyond 5 years

Indicative Projects to determine future system

operations

Power System Engineering for Non-Engineers

101

Planning Horizon
Lead Times and Demand Forecasting

Planning Horizons
Perspective Long Term

Lead Times
> 15 years ahead 5 - 15 years

Demand Forecasting
Qualified guess based on suitable indicator Main Indicators & sector analysis Trends and Spatial Historical and Weather

Medium Term 2 - 5 years Operational 1 hour - 2 years

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Planning Process
Electricity Fuel Prices Prices End-Use Demand Conservation Economics & Demographics
Generation Planning

MWh Demand
Transmission Planning

Load Shape

MW Demand

Distribution Planning LEAST COST SERVICE

Demand Forecasting

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Planning Process
Load Demands Gen. Reliability & Maintenance Data LOLP
Demand Forecast

Reliability
Minimize: Investment Fuel O&M Losses

Production Cost

P/kWh

Generation Planning Transmission Planning

Investment Cost

$/MW
Distribution Planning

Generation Planning
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Planning Process
Substation
Demand Forecast

Transmission Lines Short Circuit Reliability Stability

Generation Planning Transmission Planning Distribution Planning LEAST COST SERVICE

Transmission Planning
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Planning Process
Substation
Demand Forecast Generation Planning

Feeder Power Quality Reliability System Loss

Transmission Planning Distribution Planning

LEAST COST SERVICE

Distribution Planning
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Regulatory Framework of EPIRA and Planning Imperatives for DUs

Power Supply Planning

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Planning Procedure
1 Data Gathering and Updating

Demand, Sales, customer, economic, demographic, plant, network & load data Demand, Sales and Customers Identify and quantify Capacity, Safety, Power Quality, Reliability, Stability and System Loss problems Generate Project Ideas (Solutions to Problems) Analyze technical feasibility

Forecasting

Performance Assessment of 3 Distribution System

4 Formulation of Alternatives

Technical Evaluation

Economic Evaluation

Least-Cost, NPV and B/C Analysis

7 Financing & Rate Impact Analysis

Development Plan
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Evaluation, Prioritization & Approval

FOR APPROVAL

STANDARDS-DRIVEN LEAST COST PLANNING PROCESS, PRIORITIZATION & APPROVAL

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Evaluation, Prioritization & Approval

BENEFIT/COST EVALUATION AND PRIORITIZATIO N FOR OPTIONAL PROJECTS

FOR APPROVAL
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Power System Engineering for Non-Engineers

Planning Coordination
Generation Planning Wholesale Market Planning

Transmission Planning

Distribution Planning

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Planning Coordination

Philippine Grid Code

Generation Plan
Prepared by DOE Committed and Indicative Power Plant Retirements and New Capacity Projects Input to NGCP Transmission Development Planning

Distribution Plan
DDP Prepared by Distribution Utilities (PDUs and Ecs) First 5 years Committed CAPEX Projects Beyond 5 years Indicative Projects Input to NGCP Transmission Development Planning

Transmission Plan
TDP Prepared by NGCP in consultation with DOE 5 years Committed CAPEX Projects submitted to ERC through PBR
University of the Philippines National Engineering Center

Competency Training and Certification Program in Power System Engineering

References:
1. 2. Power System 101 Training Materials from UP-NEC Competition and Choice in Electricity by S. Hunt & G. Shuttleworh, J. Wiley & Sons, Ltd., 1996 3. Energy Economics and Technology by P. G. LeBel, 1982 4. Electrical Engineering 101 by D. Ashby, Elsvier Inc., 2006 5. Electric Power System by S. A. Nasar, 1990 6. RA No. 9136 Electric Power Industry Reform Act of 2001 7. Philippine Grid Code Amendment No. 1 April 2, 2007 8. Philippine Distribution Code 9. Electrical Power System by D. Das, New Age International Limited, Publishers, 2006 10. Electrical Distribution Engineering 3rd Ed., by Pansini A. J., The Fairmont Press, Inc. 2007 11. Market Operations in Electric Power System by M. Shahidehpour, H. Yamin, Z. Li, Wiley & Sons, Inc,., 2002

BE HONEST Even if other are not Even if other will not Even if others can not
Proverbs 10:9

Thank you for NOT Sleeping!!!