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CHAPTER 3: PROJECT MANAGEMENT - Suggested Solutions: Question 3.3 Network Drawing

The document contains solutions to practice questions about project management and network diagrams. For question 3.14, the critical path is activities C-D-E-F-H-K with an expected project completion time of 36.33 days. The variance on the critical path is 5.22 and the probability of finishing in 40 days or less is 94.6%. For question 3.21, the critical path is A-C with an expected completion time of 20 weeks, while the non-critical path is B-D with an expected time of 18 weeks. The probability of the project finishing within 22 weeks is approximately 96% due to the higher variance on path B-D.

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Koko Dandash
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244 views3 pages

CHAPTER 3: PROJECT MANAGEMENT - Suggested Solutions: Question 3.3 Network Drawing

The document contains solutions to practice questions about project management and network diagrams. For question 3.14, the critical path is activities C-D-E-F-H-K with an expected project completion time of 36.33 days. The variance on the critical path is 5.22 and the probability of finishing in 40 days or less is 94.6%. For question 3.21, the critical path is A-C with an expected completion time of 20 weeks, while the non-critical path is B-D with an expected time of 18 weeks. The probability of the project finishing within 22 weeks is approximately 96% due to the higher variance on path B-D.

Uploaded by

Koko Dandash
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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CHAPTER 3: PROJECT MANAGEMENT Suggested Solutions

Summer II, 2009

Question 3.3 Network Drawing:

It will take Dave and his team 21 days to complete the project. The critical path is A-C-F-H.

Question 3.14 Network Drawing:

a.
Activity A B C D E F G H I J K a 3 2 1 6 2 6 1 3 10 14 2 m 6 4 2 7 4 10 2 6 11 16 8 b 8 4 3 8 6 14 4 9 12 20 10 Expected 5.83 3.67 2.00 7.00 4.00 10.00 2.17 6.00 11.00 16.33 7.33 Variance 0.69 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.44 1.78 0.25 1.00 0.11 1.00 1.78

BUS P301:01

b, c.

The critical path is given by activities C-D-E-F-H-K. Project completion time is 36.33 days.
Activity A B C D E F G H I J K Time 5.83 3.67 2.00 7.00 4.00 10.00 2.17 6.00 11.00 16.33 7.33 ES 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 9.00 13.00 13.00 23.00 15.17 2.00 29.00 EF 5.83 3.67 2.00 9.00 13.00 23.00 15.17 29.00 26.17 18.33 36.33 LS 7.17 5.33 0.00 2.00 9.00 13.00 15.83 23.00 18.00 20.00 29.00 LF 13.00 9.00 2.00 9.00 13.00 23.00 18.00 29.00 29.00 36.33 36.33 Slack Critical 7.17 No 5.33 No 0.00 Yes 0.00 Yes 0.00 Yes 0.00 Yes 2.83 No 0.00 Yes 2.83 No 18.00 No 0.00 Yes

d.

Expected completion time for the project is 36.33 days. Project variance Sum of variances of activities on critical path 0.11 0.11 0.44 1.78 1.00 1.78 = 5.22. Standard deviation = 2.28 Probability of finishing the project in 40 days or less is given by:

P t

40

P z

40 36.33 2.28

P z

1.61

0.946

or 94.6%

Question 3.17

(a) Estimated (expected) time for C


(16 8) (b) Variance for C is 6
2
2

[8

(4

12)

16]/6

72/6

12 weeks

16 1.78 9
BUS P301:01

(c) Critical path is ACFHJK (d) Time on critical path 7.67 1 12 1.78 9.67 5.44 2 0 6.67 1.78 2.17 0.03 40.17 weeks (rounded) 10.03

(e) Variance on critical path


(f) Z =

36 40.17 = 1.32, which is about 9.6% chance 3.17 (.096 probability) of completing project before week 36.

Note that based on possible rounding in part (d) - where time on critical path could be 40.3 - the probability can be as low as 8.7%. So an answer between 8.7% and 9.6% is valid.

Question 3.21 (a)


Activity A B C D a 9 4 9 5 m 10 10 10 8 b 11 16 11 11 te 10 10 10 8 Variance 0.11 4 0.11 1

(b) Critical path is A C with mean (te) completion time of 20 weeks. The other path is BD, with mean completion time of 18 weeks. (c) Variance of A C Variance of BD (Variance of A) (Variance of C) 0.11 0.11 0.22 (Variance of B) + (Variance of D) 4 1 5

(d) Probability AC is finished in 22 weeks or less

P Z

22 20 0.22

P( Z

4.26) 1.00

(e) Probability BD is finished in 22 weeks or less

P Z

22 18 5

P(Z

1.79) 0.963

(f) The critical path has a relatively small variance and will almost certainly be finished in 22 weeks or less. Path BD has a relatively high variance. Due to this, the probability BD is finished in 22 weeks or less is only about 0.96. Since the project is not finished until all activities (and paths) are finished, the probability that the project will be finished in 22 weeks or less is not 1.00 but is approximately 0.96.
3 BUS P301:01

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