Infosys: Performance Highlights
Infosys: Performance Highlights
Infosys: Performance Highlights
Infosys
Performance highlights
(` cr) Net revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) PAT 1QFY13 9,616 2,962 30.8 2,289 4QFY12 8,852 2,887 32.6 2,316 % chg (qoq) 8.6 2.6 (181)bp (1.2) 1QFY12 7,485 2,176 29.1 1,722 % chg (yoy) 28.5 36.1 173bp 32.9
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code 1.0 2,990/2,169 148,860 5 17,233 5,235 INFY.BO INFY@IN IT 129,572
`2,265 `2,530
12 Months
For 1QFY2013, Infosys reported yet another disappointing quarterly result, broadly underperforming on all fronts. The most disappointing thing in Infosys result was revision of FY2013 USD revenue growth guidance downwards to at least 5% from 8-10% earlier, tad lower than our estimate of 6-8%. In addition, the company has stopped issuing quarterly guidance citing uncertainly in demand environment which is discomforting. The stock has got corrected significantly, so owing to this we maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock. Quarterly highlights: For 1QFY2013, Infosys reported revenue of US$1,752mn, down 1.1% qoq, impacted due to 3.7% qoq decline in pricing and a hit of US$15mn as a one-time reversal in a transformation project from a European utilities client. EBITDA margin declined by 181bp qoq to 30.8%, despite having benefits from ~8% qoq INR depreciation against USD because operating margins were impacted adversely by pricing decline (co attributing the decline to change in business mix with some sporadic pricing resets in FSI) and US$15mn of revenue reversal on account of a project cancellation. Outlook and valuation: Management has given a disappointing FY2013 guidance of atleast 5% yoy growth from 8-10% earlier, tad lower than our estimate of 6-8%. Post 1.1% qoq decline in USD revenue in 1QFY2012, the company requires ~3% ask rate in 2Q-4QFY2013 to achieve 5% growth in FY2013, which, at current scenario of companys performance, looks a bit stretched. Hence, we expect USD and INR revenue to post a CAGR of 7.1% and 11.2%, respectively over FY2012-14E. On the EBIT margin front, for FY2013, the management expects it to go down by 50-100bp yoy in FY2013 which does not factor in the wage hike. Over FY201214E, we expect a CAGR of 11.4% and 9.5% in EBIT and PAT, respectively. At the CMP of `2,265, the stock is trading at 14.0x FY2013E and 13.0x FY2014E EPS. We maintain Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `2,530 but in the near term though we do not expect Infosys to give considerable absolute upsides. Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY2010 22,742 4.8 6,219 3.8 34.5 108.7 20.8 5.4 25.8 25.0 5.0 14.5 FY2011 27,501 20.9 6,823 9.7 32.6 119.5 19.0 4.7 25.0 25.9 4.1 12.6 FY2012 33,733 22.7 8,315 21.9 31.7 145.5 15.6 3.9 24.9 25.5 3.2 10.1 FY2013E 39,151 16.1 9,247 11.2 31.6 161.9 14.0 3.3 23.8 26.1 2.7 8.6 FY2014E 41,743 6.6 9,966 7.8 31.9 174.5 13.0 2.9 22.1 24.7 2.4 7.6
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 16.0 18.3 37.9 27.8
3m (0.6) (17.6)
Ankita Somani
+91 22-39357800 Ext: 6819 ankita.somani@angelbrkoing.com
1QFY13 9,616 5,541 4,075 1,113 2,962 269 2,693 476 3,169 880 2,289 40.1 42.4 30.8 28.0 22.7
4QFY12 8,852 4,959 3,893 1,006 2,887 240 2,647 652 3,299 984 2,316 40.5 44.0 32.6 29.9 24.4
% chg (qoq) 8.6 11.7 4.7 10.6 2.6 12.2 1.7 (4.0) (10.5) (1.2) (1.2) (160)bp (181)bp (190)bp (168)bp
1QFY12 7,485 4,353 3,132 956 2,176 224 1,952 443 2,395 673 1,722 30.1 41.8 29.1 26.1 21.7
% chg (yoy) 28.5 27.3 30.1 16.4 36.1 20.3 38.0 32.3 30.8 32.9 32.9 54bp 173bp 193bp 96bp
FY2012 33,733 18,877 14,856 4,147 10,709 931 9,778 1,904 11,683 3,368 8,315 145.5 44.0 31.7 29.0 23.3
FY2011 27,501 15,054 12,447 3,483 8,964 862 8,102 1,211 9,313 2,490 6,823 119.5 45.3 32.6 29.5 23.8
% chg (yoy) 22.7 25.4 19.4 19.1 19.5 8.0 20.7 25.4 35.2 21.9 21.8 (122)bp (85)bp (47)bp (43)bp
3.1
2.9
2.3
2.7
4QFY12
Total volume growth
1QFY13
0 (2)
Service wise, revenues from services having higher discretionary proportion such as consulting and system integration and products, platforms and solutions, declined on a qoq basis. Revenue from the companys major revenue contributor service application development and maintenance (contributing 38% to revenue) remained almost flat qoq. Revenues from consulting and package implementation service vertical declined by 4.9% qoq. On the other hand, revenues from IMS as well as testing services grew by 5.3% qoq each. Services verticals such as application maintenance, IMS, BPO and testing are expected to drive growth for IT companies in a volatile and uncertain macro environment. Revenues from products, platforms and solutions service line declined by 2.7% qoq. This is one of the major focus areas of the company, and the total TCV of this service area currently stands greater than US$380mn.
% to revenue % growth qoq % growth yoy 64.0 17.1 20.9 6.6 8.3 4.9 3.5 2.7 29.9 6.1 4.5 0.3 1.0 0.1 (1.1) 5.3 5.3 1.0 1.8 (1.1) (4.9) (2.7) 1.2 (25.8) 6.2 11.4 (1.7) 17.3 16.0 (4.9) 14.7 1.1 (1.1) 25.4 (1.7) 4.8
Industry wise, revenue from FSI, the companys anchor industry vertical contributing 34.3% to revenue, declined by 1.1% qoq, led by 5.4% qoq de-growth in revenue from insurance. Revenues from banking and financial services industry remained almost flat qoq. In CC terms, revenue from FSI declined by 0.4% qoq. This was because of sporadic price negotiations in few accounts. The spending from banks and financial institutions is coming from work related to risk compliance, fraud prevention and regulatory kind of work, but at a slower pace. Manufacturing (contributed 22.0% to revenue) posted 2.2% qoq revenue growth. In CC terms, revenue from this vertical grew by 3.1% qoq. The company is seeing IT spending coming in the manufacturing industry segment from clients in terms of work related to harmonizing processes and transformation to gain cost efficiency and simplicity. Although demand from European auto companies has moderated, the strong growth in hi-tech and engineering services has kept the momentum in manufacturing segment. The RCL segment (contributed 23.7% to revenue) emerged as the major growth driver for the company, recording 2.4% qoq revenue growth, led by considerable 5.8% and 5.1% qoq growth in revenues from retail and CPG and transport and logistics, respectively. In CC terms, revenue from RCL grew by 2.6% qoq. In this industry segment, retail is gaining traction on account of spend related to digital commerce, digital marketing and clients targeting to go global. The ECS segment (contributed 20.0% to revenue) reported significant 8.0% qoq decline in revenues. In CC terms, revenue from this segment declined by 7.3% qoq. This was because of a one-time order cancellation impact of US$15mn from a utilities client in Europe. Going ahead, the company expects its deal pipeline to pick up for the energy and utilities industry segment.
% to revenue 34.3 27.7 6.6 22.0 23.7 16.9 1.7 3.7 1.4 20.0 4.6 10.1 5.3
% growth qoq (1.1) 0.0 (5.4) 2.2 2.4 5.8 5.1 (6.1) (13.4) (8.0) (25.4) (1.1) (1.1)
% growth yoy 1.6 3.4 (5.2) 13.6 9.5 10.1 (1.0) 4.8 33.4 (2.9) (15.4) (0.1) 4.8
In terms of geographies, revenue decline was primarily led by Europe, which posted 7.2% qoq decline in revenues in CC terms. Revenue from North America grew by 1.7% qoq in CC terms, while revenues from India and Rest of the World declined by 5.0% and 2.2% qoq, respectively in CC terms.
16.8
5 0
5.1 2.4
6.3 2.1
(5) (10)
(2.6)
(4.1) (7.2)
1QFY12
2QFY12
North America
3QFY12
Europe
4QFY12
Rest of the world
1QFY13
Hiring intact
Infosys added 9,236 gross employees in 1QFY2013, of which 5,233 were lateral additions. The net addition number for the quarter stood at 1,157. Attrition, on LTM basis, grew marginally to 14.9% in 1QFY2013 from 14.9% in 4QFY2012. The company has maintained its gross hiring target of 35,000 employees for FY2012.
Utilization rate, including trainees, remained flat qoq at 67.2%, while utilization rate, excluding trainees, declined by 140bp qoq to 71.6% during the quarter.
77.3
77.4 73.0
71.6
60 1QFY12 2QFY12
Including trainees
3QFY12
4QFY12
Excluding trainees
1QFY13
Margins decline
The companys EBITDA and EBIT margin declined by 181bp and 190bp qoq to 30.8% and 28.0%, respectively, despite having considerable benefits from ~8% qoq INR depreciation against USD. Operating margins of the company were impacted adversely by ~3.7% qoq decline in revenue productivity (3.1% qoq in CC terms, with co attributing the decline to change in business mix with some sporadic pricing resets in BFSI) and US$15mn of revenue reversal on account of a project cancellation. Management indicated that they expect EBIT margin to go down by 50-100bp in FY2013 which does not factor any wage hike.
(BP)
Client pyramid
Infosys added 51 new clients during the quarter, taking its total active client base to 711. One client moved from lower revenue bracket to higher bracket of US$50mn-100mn. The top 5 and top10 clients grew well by posting ~4.1% qoq and 2.6% qoq in terms of revenues despite sluggishness at the top client.
US$300mn plus
Source: Company, Angel Research
Guidance disappoints
The most disappointing thing in Infosys result was revision of FY2013 USD revenue growth guidance downwards to at least 5% from 8-10% earlier, tad lower than our estimate of 6-8% taking into account: a) 1.5% impact due to adverse cross currency movement, b) 3.2% impact due to price decline and c) rest due to impact on overall demand scenario. Management expects FY2013 USD revenue to be at least US$7.34bn. The FY2013 EPS guidance is to reach atleast `166.46 (at assumed currency rate of INR/USD rate of `55.0). The management has stopped issuing quarterly guidance citing uncertainly in demand environment which is discomforting. We believe this clearly indicates challenging visibility in business volumes and managements future expectation.
July 12, 2012
(%)
Post 1.1% decline in USD revenue in 1QFY2012, the company requires ~3% ask rate in 2Q-4QFY2013 to achieve 5% growth in FY2013, which at current scenario looks a bit stretched.
FY2013 - revised (As on 1QFY13) At least 40,364 At least 166.46 At least 7.34 At least 3.03
FY2013E
FY2014E
38,036
40,940
38,593
41,743
39,151
42,545
39,708
43,348
31.0
31.5
31.3
31.9
31.6
32.3
31.9
32.7
158.6
171.6
160.2
174.4
161.9
177.1
163.5
179.9
(`)
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Price
Source: Company, Angel Research
26x
22x
18x
14x
Oct-11
10x
Apr-12
Company Background
Infosys is the second largest IT company in India, employing over 1,50,000 professionals. The company services more than 650 clients across various verticals, such as financial services, manufacturing, telecom, retail and healthcare. Infosys has the widest portfolio of service offerings amongst Indian IT companies, spanning across the entire IT service value chain - from traditional application development and maintenance to consulting and package implementation to products and platforms.
10
11
12
13
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation ratio (x) P/E P/CEPS P/BVPS Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS Cash EPS Dividend Book value DuPont analysis Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) EBIT margin (EBIT/sales) Asset turnover ratio (sales/assets) Leverage ratio (assets/equity) Operating ROE Return ratios (%) RoCE (pre-tax) Angel RoIC RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset turnover (fixed assets) Receivables days 3.4 70 3.6 78 4.2 84 4.3 81 4.2 80 25.0 58.7 25.8 25.9 56.1 25.0 25.5 56.3 24.9 26.1 57.4 23.8 24.7 58.0 22.1 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 25.8 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 25.0 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.9 1.1 24.9 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 23.8 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 22.1 109 125 25 421 119 134 35 477 146 162 15 585 162 181 35 680 174 195 35 787 20.8 18.1 5.4 1.1 5.0 14.5 4.1 19.0 16.9 4.7 1.5 4.1 12.6 3.6 15.6 14.0 3.9 0.7 3.2 10.1 2.8 14.0 12.5 3.3 1.5 2.7 8.6 2.5 13.0 11.6 2.9 1.5 2.4 7.6 2.1 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E
14
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Infosys No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
15