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Gravity Model of Trade (India-Germany)

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Gravity Model of Trade (India-Germany)

Development of Indo-German Trade (in Million DM )


(*in million Euro)
Year
Indian exports Indian imports Trade Volume
1960
185
834
1,019
1965
244
1,049
1,293
1970
261
571
832
1975
483
863
1,346
1980
1,135
1,372
2,507
1985
1,472
3,377
4,849
1990
2,510
2,732
5,242
1995
3,602
4,574
8,176
2000*
2,464
2,064
4,548
2005*
3,396
4,202
7,598
2010*
6,193
9,254
15,447
2011*
7,505
10,871
18,376

Population
Year

Indian
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

German
72814900
458626700
73377632
467962100
74025784
477616000
74714353
487607400
75318337
497952300
75963695
508656300
76600311
519722200
76951336
531161000
77294314
542983900
77909682
555199700
78169289
567805100
78312842
580798800
78688452
594193000
78936666
608002600
78967433
622232400
78673554
636883700
78336950
651935200
78159814
667339000
78091820
683032500
78126350
698965600
78288576
715105200
78407907
731443800
78333366
747986300
78128282
449595500

Real GDP (in Billion USD)

Year
Indian
1969
196.71
1970
206.85
1971
210.25
1972
209.09
1973
215.98
1974
218.54
1975
238.53
1976
242.50
1977
260.09
1978
274.95
1979
260.55
1980
278.10
1981
294.80
1982
305.05
1983
327.28
1984
339.79
1985
357.64
1986
374.72
1987
389.58
1988
427.09
1989
452.49
1990
477.53
1991
482.58
1992
509.03

1984

764749400

1985

781736500

1986

798941800

1987

816328800

1988

833833500

1989

851374700

1990

868890700

1991

886348700

1992

903749600

1993

921107500

1994

938452500

1995

955804400

1996

973147600

1997

990460200

1998

1007747000

1999

1025015000

2000

1042262000

2001

1059501000

2002

1076706000

2003

1093787000

2004

1110626000

2005

1127144000

2006

1143289000

2007

1159095000

2008

1174662000

2009

1190138000

2010

1205625000

2011

1221156000

2012

1236687000

2013

1252140000

77858685
77684873
77720436
77839920
78144619
78751283
79433029
80013896
80624598
81156363
81438348
81678051
81914831
82034771
82047195
82100243
82211508
82349925
82488495
82534176
82516260
82469422
82376451
82266372
82110097
81902307
81776930
81797673
80425823
80651873

1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

From
Mumbai
Delhi
Mumbai
Delhi

533.22
568.72
611.80
657.99
684.64
726.98
791.29
821.68
861.32
894.08
964.36
1040.77
1137.40
1242.77
1364.57
1417.67
1537.88
1695.67
1808.24
1893.88
1988.89
2096.81

Distance
To
Hamburg
Berlin
Munich
Munich

Calculations
Trade

ig

= G * Sizei * Sizeg / Distanceig

Here Size of India or Germany can refer to their GDP or Population and distance can be Port to port, Capital
to Capital etc.

Ie. G= (Trade ig * Distance ig) / (Sizei * Sizeg)

Case 1

Size refers to GDP

Here, due to data availability issues, G has been calculated for every 5 years from 1970-2010 and 2011

Year

Trade Volume

Indian GDP

German GDP

(Mu-H)

D-B

1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000*
2005*
2010*
2011*
2012
2013
2014

Case 2

1019
1293
832
1346
2507
4849
5242
8176
4548
7598
15447
18376
n/a
n/a
n/a

n/a
n/a
206.85
238.53
278.10
357.64
477.53
611.80
821.68
1137.40
1695.67
1808.24
1893.88
1988.89
2096.81

n/a
n/a
1481.61
1670.14
1970.79
2108.99
2480.82
2741.01
3005.76
3096.49
3307.05
3417.28
3440.82
3455.68
3510.97

n/a
n/a
17.75989
22.10312
29.92438
42.0572
28.94741
31.89551
12.04688
14.11328
18.02075
19.45475
n/a
n/a
n/a

n/a
n/a
15.70482
19.54548
26.46172
37.1906
25.5978
28.20475
10.65289
12.48018
15.9355
17.20357
n/a
n/a
n/a

Size refers to Population

Here, due to data availability issues, G has been calculated for every 5 years from 1970-2010 and 2011
Also, as population values are huge, G has been multipliued by 1 crore

Year
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000*
2005*
2010*
2011*

Trade Volume
1019
1293
832
1346
2507
4849
5242
8176
4548
7598
15447
18376

German
Population
G (Mu-H)
449595500
72814900
0.204
497952300
75963695
0.224
555199700
78169289
0.125
622232400
78673554
0.180
698965600
78288576
0.300
781736500
77684873
0.522
868890700
79433029
0.497
955804400
81678051
0.685
1042262000
82211508
0.347
1127144000
82469422
0.535
1205625000
81776930
1.025
1221156000
81797673
1.204

Indian Population

D-B

0.180
0.198
0.111
0.159
0.265
0.462
0.439
0.606
0.307
0.473
0.906
1.064

DP (in Billion USD)

German
1387.85
1481.61
1528.03
1593.74
1669.88
1684.74
1670.14
1752.80
1811.47
1865.96
1943.41
1970.79
1981.22
1973.40
2004.43
2061.01
2108.99
2157.23
2187.48
2268.57
2356.97
2480.82
2607.55
2657.41

2630.78
2695.80
2741.01
2762.69
2810.68
2863.01
2916.58
3005.76
3051.28
3051.59
3040.13
3075.43
3096.49
3211.06
3316.03
3351.95
3179.47
3307.05
3417.28
3440.82
3455.68
3510.97

Distance
KM
6542
5785
6336
7802

e Port to port, Capital

0-2010 and 2011

Mu-Me

D-Me

n/a
n/a
17.20065
21.407118
28.9821
40.732866
28.035893
30.891153
11.667534
13.668874
17.453297
18.842145
n/a
n/a
n/a

n/a
n/a
21.18047265
26.36021703
35.68787024
50.15748471
34.52273265
38.03863206
14.36712469
16.83152684
21.49157568
23.20176966
n/a
n/a
n/a

60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1970
1.600
1.400

0-2010 and 2011

1.200
1.000

Mu-Me

0.197
0.217
0.121
0.174
0.290
0.506
0.481
0.664
0.336
0.518
0.993
1.166

0.800

D-Me

0.243
0.267
0.150
0.215
0.357
0.623
0.593
0.817
0.414
0.638
1.222
1.435

0.600
0.400
0.200
0.000

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995 2000* 2005* 2010* 2011*

1969

1970

1971

1972

G (Mu-H)
G D-B
G Mu-Me
G D-Me

2005* 2010* 2011*

G (Mu-H)
G D-B
G Mu-Me
G D-Me

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

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