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Mike Trout is injured again, Ken tells us to exercise patience in assessing trades, and the World Series is … fluid? Plus: the Baseball Card of the Week and a heavy links section today. I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to The Windup!
Sigh: Trout to miss rest of season
Mike Trout has another meniscus tear. He’ll be out for the rest of the season after another knee surgery.
What is there to even add? I wrote about it back on May 1, noting how Trout and Anthony Rendon have missed so much time in recent years. Trout hasn’t played since then. (Rendon, who is also back on the IL, has played 14 games in the interim.)
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As I sit here and ponder the way this news made me feel, my mind has been tossing this thought around itself like a baseball changing hands: “It always ends.”
It does, of course. The game [zoom out] the season [zoom out] a dynasty [zoom out] a career. Keep going, and we start seeing the shapes of the uncomfortable truths we prefer to keep tucked out of frame. [Zoom back in a little.]
My appreciation of great players — and the finite nature of their careers — has come to me in a bell curve.
As a child, I never considered the possibility that Ken Griffey Jr. or Pudge Rodriguez — both 19 years old when they debuted — would ever not be great, much less retire. They are 54 and 52, respectively.
For quite some time as an adult, I began to dread it. Every from-a-knee home run by Adrián Beltré, jump throw from the hole by Jeter, diving changeup from Pedro Martinez … how many more until there were no more? In the middle part of the bell curve, The Ending seemed to loom ominously over everything.
I am no fount of wisdom, but I am grateful for the back end of the bell curve. With it has come a treaty between the ignorance of the ending and the fear of it. Yes, it does end. Not much you can do about that.
And yet, the joy sneaks through. These days, I let the joy have its moment.
Ken’s Notebook: Take your time when judging trades
It’s best to exercise caution when assessing trades at the deadline, or any time, really. To quote Theo Epstein’s organizational mantra from his days with the Cubs:
“We don’t know s—.”
That goes for executives, writers, fans or anyone else who tries to figure out this wacky game. By the end of the season, some of the trades at the deadline will be easier to assess. But for many of the ones involving prospects, years will pass before we can judge them adequately.
My favorite example of why instant evaluations of trades are dangerous comes from the 2012 winter meetings. The deal was a biggie — James Shields, Wade Davis and a player to be named (Eliot Johnson) from the Rays to the Royals for Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and minor leaguer Patrick Leonard. The criticism of the Royals for parting with Myers, particularly from the analytical community, was harsh to the point of being over the top.
Shields, while a quality pitcher, was under contract for only two more years. Myers was a top prospect, seemingly a centerpiece of the Royals’ future. Former Royals general manager Dayton Moore, though, was intent on his club turning a corner — and it quickly became clear that he made the right call.
The Royals made immediate progress in 2013, producing their first winning season in 10 years. They won the American League pennant in ‘14 and then — after Shields, as expected, departed in free agency — the World Series in ‘15.
Davis, initially considered a lesser player in the deal, instead became a major figure, producing a combined 0.97 ERA in 2014 and ‘15 and getting the final three outs in the Series clincher against the Mets.
Myers? He was the AL Rookie of the Year in 2013, an All-Star with the Padres in ‘16 and earned nearly $100 million in his career. But he never quite fulfilled his potential. Today, he is out of the game at 33.
The Royals, then, “won” a trade many expected them to lose. Shields, besides performing at a high level during his two seasons in Kansas City, helped the team establish a winning identity, a lasting if intangible benefit.
Little did anyone know, Shields later would become part of another trade that didn’t turn out quite as expected — in June 2016, when the Padres sent him to the White Sox for right-hander Erik Johnson and a little-known 17-year-old infielder.
Kid by the name of Fernando Tatis Jr.
October surprise: World Series date could move
MLB is trying something new this year. Well, they might not actually do it, but they’re making space for it, just in case.
Though the dates of the World Series have always been pretty much established, this year the league is allowing for an anomaly. The World Series is scheduled to begin Oct. 25 and run through — if it goes seven games — Nov. 2.
But here’s the plot twist: If both the ALCS and NLCS end by Oct. 19 — barring rainouts, that would mean both series ended in five games or less — the league will forego the extended break between rounds and bump Game 1 up to Oct. 22.
It’s not the likeliest outcome. As noted in our story here, both the ALCS and NLCS ending in five games or less is a scenario that has only happened five times since the current format began in 1985 (before that, LCS series were best-of-five affairs).
It’s something I never thought we’d see, given how important the games are to a network’s programming schedule. But if it means we don’t have a nearly week-long break between the LCS and the World Series, that’s undeniably a better experience for the sport and its fans.
Baseball Card of the Week: 2015 Topps Hunter Pence
In keeping with the “letting joy be joy” theme of the first section …
I had the pleasure of covering Pence when he played with the Rangers in 2018. He became a beloved star in San Francisco, by way of Houston and Philadelphia, but then everyone thought he was washed after 2017. Except he made some adjustments that winter, playing winter ball in Latin America, and had a renaissance in Arlington.
One of my favorite interviews I’ve ever done was with Pence, from his coffee shop / gaming cafe in Houston. Here’s the takeaway quote — one I come back to often:
“I used to play, probably, through anger and hatred when I was younger. But I’ve learned to transform that, and that’s not who I am or who I want to be anymore. I’m not that person.”
Handshakes and High Fives
Sometimes, the best analysis is worth waiting for. Here’s Jayson Stark with a top-down look at which front offices drove the trade deadline (and which ones got taken for a ride) — featuring some execs’ thoughts on the moves.
And here’s Jim Bowden with his deadline superlatives: best fits, worst trades, weirdest moves and more.
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Freddie Freeman has been away from the Dodgers for more than a week now due to a family emergency. Yesterday, his wife Chelsea posted an explanation: Their three-year-old son Maximus has been battling “a severe case of Guillan-Barré syndrome.”
Zack Meisel takes a time machine back to 1998, when C.C. Sabathia was drafted, telling the story of how the pitcher went from an unpolished talent to being inducted into the team’s Hall of Fame this weekend.
Tyler Kepner’s “Sliders” column focuses on the Marlins, but — as always — is a grab bag of fun facts and insight.
Not long after calling up the sport’s No. 1 prospect (Jackson Holliday), the Orioles are reportedly calling up Coby Mayo, whom Keith Law recently ranked as the No. 18 prospect in baseball.
A surprisingly large number of draft picks from the first 10 rounds — four of them, in fact — did not sign before the deadline passed.
Chris Kirschner examines one reason he doesn’t expect to see Jasson Dominguez back in the Bronx before Sept. 1.
If you hadn’t heard of Tyler Zuber when the Mets traded for him on Tuesday, that’s OK. But he’s worth rooting for.
Melissa Lockard tells us where 40 recently traded prospects are being assigned.
Most-clicked in yesterday’s newsletter: Eno Sarris’ look at 10 players who should get a shot to shine after the trade deadline.
Most-read MLB story on the website yesterday: Our first link in today’s Handshakes & High Fives! Stark’s breakdown of the trade deadline.
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(Photo: Gene Wang/Getty Images)