NHL’s future star defensemen: 7 players that deserve the spotlight

One of my favorite parts of watching NHL games is discovering which young defensemen are flashing top-pair or star potential. This could be a rookie or sophomore who’s learning and making occasional mistakes but showing standout traits that indicate a high-end ceiling. It could also be an already established, well-known name breaking out from “good” to “borderline elite” in a substantially bigger role.

It’s fun to identify the next wave of talented young defensemen before they hit their ceiling. In this article, I want to share notes on some standout blue liners.

First, let’s clarify that we’re not analyzing players who are already household names like Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Adam Fox, Rasmus Dahlin, Miro Heiskanen, Moritz Seider and others. We’re also not looking at prospects outside the NHL.

Second, and I cannot emphasize this enough, this story is not a ranking or a definitive list of all young defensemen with star/top-pair upside. There are 15-20 deserving players for this exercise, but we can’t go that deep in just one article. For example, I know that Luke Hughes has star potential, but I’m analyzing Simon Nemec here instead because the latter has been equally good but with far less media hype. Hughes’ omission — which also applies to other exciting young defenders like Pavel Mintyukov, K’Andre Miller, Alex Vlasic, David Jiricek, Bowen Byram and others — isn’t a sign that they’re less talented than the players we’re highlighting today.

Without further ado, let’s dive in.

Jake Sanderson, Ottawa Senators

The Senators were poorly run under former GM Pierre Dorion, but they hit a home run with their 2020 NHL Draft haul. Armed with the No. 3 and No. 5 picks, Ottawa selected Tim Stützle and Jake Sanderson, respectively. It’s early, but Sanderson and Stützle are by far the two most valuable players from that draft class.

Sanderson handles the toughest matchups on Ottawa’s blue line, according to PuckIQ, and is behind only Thomas Chabot in averaging 23:04 per game. He already leads them in short-handed ice time too, which is an impressive sign of defensive trust.

The rangy 21-year-old defender is crushing it in this difficult usage. Sanderson is driving a positive share of shots, scoring chances and expected goals at five-on-five. Ottawa has a plus-seven goal differential during Sanderson’s five-on-five shifts, compared to a minus-25 goal differential in all other five-on-five minutes.

Put another way: Ottawa performs like a bona fide playoff-caliber team when Sanderson’s on the ice, but is a hot mess whenever he’s off. Sanderson’s defensive metrics, in particular, are miles better than the rest of his team.

Sanderson makes countless subtle, smart plays both with and without the puck that tilt the ice in Ottawa’s favor. This includes escaping heavy forecheck pressure with ease, closing defensive gaps quickly, defending rushes well, making sharp outlet passes and pinching up the wall to keep offensive shifts alive. These may not be highlight reel plays but when you stack multiple possession-driving plays on every shift like Sanderson, it leads to strong territorial control.

In the clip below, watch how he plays a perfect gap on the Blues puck carrier and makes an effortless stick check to turn the play the other way.

Sanderson’s skating is excellent and he’s remarkably poised. Here’s a mini-montage from last week’s first period against the Blues that shows how impactful he is at taking pucks from pressure situations and moving them into space to teammates.

Brock Faber, Minnesota Wild

Nobody expected Faber to emerge as a No. 1 defenseman this season. The 21-year-old rookie was penciled in to hold down a second-pair role as a defensive defenseman but has instead carried Minnesota’s blue line, especially with Jared Spurgeon missing all but 16 games with injury.

Faber ranks seventh among all NHL defensemen in averaging 25:05 per game, anchoring the Wild in all situations. His two-way metrics aren’t as eye-popping as they were earlier in the season, but the Wild are about break even at controlling shots, expected goals and have a plus-four five-on-five goal differential with Faber on the ice, which is extremely impressive considering his age, daunting usage and the mediocre team environment around him.

The biggest surprise with Faber’s performance is how quickly the offensive side of his game has developed. He’s ambitiously translated his strong skating into offense by jumping into the play and carrying the puck in all three zones with tremendous confidence. It’s why he’s already hit 40 points in 71 games.

Below you’ll see a clip of him aggressively pinching up in the offensive zone and pouncing on a rebound goal from last weekend’s game against the Blues. These are incredible offensive instincts considering he was pegged as more of a safe, stay-at-home defender before the season.

Faber’s composure and high panic threshold are a treat to watch as well. Watch how calmly he moves the puck out of danger for a clean breakout against Vancouver, one of the best forechecking teams in the NHL.

Faber’s growth into a bona fide No. 1 defenseman is a massive help long-term since Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin are both in their 30s.

Kaiden Guhle, Montreal Canadiens

It’s easy to overlook Guhle when discussing the NHL’s emerging young defensemen. He doesn’t put up gaudy point totals. He doesn’t have stellar analytics. He doesn’t have a flashy offensive skill set that lands on highlight reels.

But the closer you watch Guhle play, the more you appreciate his potential as a future two-way shutdown ace. The 22-year-old sophomore averages the second-most minutes on Montreal’s blue line and is already trusted with the seventh toughest matchups of all NHL defensemen. To make matters even more difficult, Guhle, a left-shot, has regularly played on the right side.

Which NHL D Play Hardest Matchups?

Rank	Player	TOI% Against Elites
1	Moritz Seider	47.9%
2	Jake Walman	45.4%
3	Adam Pelech	44.6%
4	Mike Matheson	43.4%
5	Chris Tanev	43.2%
6	Erik Cernak	43.1%
7	Kaiden Guhle	42.7%
8	Noah Hanifin	42.5%
9	Noah Dobson	42.3%
10	Martin Fehervary	41.8%

Data courtesy PuckIQ

Guhle’s underlying numbers don’t look good but that’s not a fair way to judge a young defenseman being thrown to the wolves, especially on a bad team. Vladislav Gavrikov’s move from Columbus to L.A. and Chris Tanev’s move a few years ago from Vancouver to Calgary are prime examples of how drastically a defensive defenseman’s analytics can improve in a more insulated environment.

By the eye test, Guhle checks many boxes you look for in a quality two-way defenseman. Guhle offers an enticing combination of size (6-foot-3) and strong four-way skating ability, which allows him to cover a ton of ground defensively. He closes gaps assertively and has the reach to kill plays early.

The video clip below is a good example of that. Guhle swarms Bryan Rust on an offensive zone entry and kills the rush by taking him into the boards. As the play continues, he makes a perfect outlet pass to spring Montreal’s breakout.

Guhle’s physicality and defensive attributes have been well-documented since junior, but his play with the puck, particularly on the breakout, is underrated. Watch how effortlessly he escapes forecheck pressure for a clean zone exit in the clip below.

He’s a sharp, accurate passer in transition too. On this play, Guhle makes a stretch pass up to a forward who tips it ahead for Josh Anderson for a partial breakaway and drawn penalty.

Guhle doesn’t have the dynamic skill to run a power play but his instincts jumping up in the rush and intelligent decision-making give him a higher offensive ceiling than his 19 points in 66 games indicate (he also scored 18 points in 44 games as a rookie). He may not be elite in any particular area, but he’s a jack of all trades with his skating, size, smarts and two-way reliability. Guhle’s unlikely to become a “star” in the traditional sense — he’s a bit more raw compared to the other players on this list and doesn’t have as high of a ceiling — but he could develop into Noah Hanifin or prime Jake Muzzin-type two-way minute muncher.

Thomas Harley, Dallas Stars

Harley’s breakout as the Stars’ second-best defenseman, coupled with Chris Tanev’s acquisition, has significantly bolstered Dallas’ top four. The 22-year-old left-shot defender spent most of last season in the AHL, established himself as an everyday NHL player in the playoffs and is now a difference-maker at the top of the lineup.

Harley anchored Dallas’ second pair for the first half of the season. He’s since moved up to play with Miro Heiskanen, which has supercharged Dallas’ top pair to an elite level. Heiskanen is, of course, the main driver for the pair, but his results are way better alongside Harley compared to any other partner.

Data via Natural Stat Trick

Heiskanen and Harley are both such smooth, fluid skaters. This allows them to control transition play each way — they break the puck out with ease from Dallas’ zone, but also defend counterattack rushes exceptionally. Heiskanen’s excellent rush defense is well-advertised, but Harley has also been stout in this area too. Harley has surrendered chances when defending the rush at the lowest rate of all Stars defensemen, according to Corey Sznajder’s tracking data.

Here’s an example of that from Dallas’ last game. Harley’s stretch pass gets disrupted in the clip below, but watch how quickly he recovers to close the space and break up Arizona’s counterattack. His angles and timing defending the rush are vastly improved, which has allowed him to take full advantage of his wingspan as a 6-foot-4 defenseman.

Harley’s gained crucial defensive trust, but puck-moving and offense are his bread and butter. He’s top-10 among all NHL defensemen at creating defensive zone exits with control, according to Sznajder’s tracking. He’s scored 15 goals, which is tied for fifth-best among all defensemen. Harley’s best offensive trait is his ability to get involved in rush offense. He’s dynamic enough to go for solo puck rushes but also excels at jumping up and joining rushes that his teammates are leading.

THOMAS HARLEY ⭐

He buries the @Energizer OT winner on an unreal solo rush! pic.twitter.com/Qx1hHkeo54

— NHL (@NHL) January 26, 2024

Noah Dobson, New York Islanders

Dobson was already a strong offensive player — he was in the 50-point range the last two years — but the strides he’s recently taken to become a No. 1 workhorse are massive.

The workload he’s being trusted to handle in 2023-24 is night and day compared to years past. Dobson is logging nearly five minutes extra per game compared to last season (25:08 versus 20:23). He was given fairly sheltered matchups last season but is now tasked with defending top players.

Dobson has held up impressively under this spiked usage, owning a plus-15 goal differential at five-on-five and improved two-way play-driving metrics. He still has occasional defensive lapses, poor reads and brain freezes — and has especially struggled with that in recent games — but his defensive metrics have come a long way compared to years past. Last season, he was deep in the red for defensive impact but now he’s in neutral territory, which pairs nicely with his elite offensive play-driving.

Graphic via Evolving-Hockey’s RAPM model

Dobson’s last month has been rough. He’s picked up just one point in his last 13 games and has been outscored 14-8 at five-on-five since Feb. 25. This is probably just a blip, though, as Dobson’s driven a strong 55.4 percent share of scoring chances during that span.

Despite his recent slowdown, Dobson still ranks sixth in defenseman scoring with 65 points in 71 games. He’s a dual threat offensively, owning both incredible play-making vision and a heavy shot. In the clip below, watch how he fakes a shot to freeze New Jersey’s defense, and with his head up the whole way, makes a slick backdoor pass to Bo Horvat.

There’s still room for Dobson to clean up his defensive play but he’s stepped up well in a genuine No. 1 role.

Simon Nemec, New Jersey Devils

Nemec, who just turned 20 a month ago, has played a surprisingly large role for the Devils this season. The 2022 No. 2 pick started the season in the minors but has ended up averaging top-four NHL minutes because of New Jersey’s blue-line injuries. Nemec doesn’t have Luke Hughes’ flashy point totals or highlight reel plays, but he’s been the more polished and complete rookie of the two.

Nemec has standout vision with the puck in all three zones. He’s smooth at breaking the puck out and makes excellent decisions under pressure. He’s controlled a blue line leading 55 percent of expected goals and is the only defender in New Jersey’s current top six with a positive five-on-five goal differential (plus-six). Nemec consistently makes plays you wouldn’t expect from a rookie. Here’s a sequence from the Devils’ last game where he beats Anders Lee in a 50/50 puck battle, cuts into the slot and then threads the needle with a perfect backdoor assist for Alexander Holtz.

Nemec’s two-way intelligence and poise are so advanced for his age — it’s going to be exciting to see what ceiling he reaches during his prime.

Evan Bouchard, Edmonton Oilers

Elite skating is the foundation for many of the NHL’s best offensive defensemen like Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Roman Josi and Rasmus Dahlin. Bouchard’s unique in that he drives exceptional offensive results — he’s third among defensemen with 72 points in 69 games — despite being an average skater.

Many people’s immediate reaction would be to say that he rides Connor McDavid’s and Leon Draisaitl’s coattails. Bouchard unquestionably gets a lift from that but he isn’t racking up empty-calorie power-play points at a disproportionate rate compared to his peers, other top defensemen get to play with star talent too (e.g.: Makar with Nathan MacKinnon and company) and he was a star point producer on his own in junior too.

Bouchard’s rocket of a shot is his best offensive weapon. It’s a dying art for defensemen to blast missiles from the point like Shea Weber, but Bouchard’s keeping that style alive. He leads all defensemen in shots that have clocked in over 90 miles per hour this season by a huge margin.

Hardest Shooting NHL Defensemen

Rank	Player	90 MPH+ Shots
1	Evan Bouchard	104
2	Victor Hedman	63
3	Roman Josi	44
4	Ryan Pulock	43
5	Jake Walman	43
6	Mike Matheson	41
7	Filip Hronek	41
8	Colin Miller	39
9	Colton Parayko	39
10	John Carlson	38

Here’s an example of that in action.

Bouchard also possesses elite vision with the puck. He’s by far the Oilers’ best defenseman at leading zone exits with possession, according to Corey Sznajder’s tracking. The 24-year-old right-shot defender is cerebral with the puck under pressure and lightning-quick at accurately hitting passing lanes.

Mattias Ekholm deserves a lot of credit as a steadying veteran partner. Together, their pair has been dominant at driving play. They control 57.4 percent of shot attempts when they aren’t sharing the ice with McDavid at five-on-five.

For Bouchard to earn respect outside of Edmonton as a top-flight defenseman, he needs to maintain his improved defensive play. He was lackadaisical and frankly problematic in his own zone during the Oilers’ slow start. He’s significantly cleaned up defensively since then. We also don’t know if Bouchard can carry his own pair because Ekholm has been a two-way monster since being acquired.

These are important questions for the Oilers to get answers to because Bouchard, who carries a $3.9 million AAV, will become a restricted free agent with arbitration rights at the end of the 2024-25 season.

(Photos of Thomas Harley and Brock Faber: Jerome Miron and Matt Krohn / USA Today)