For all the talk of trades involving starting pitchers, six weeks in the offseason passed before a big name actually moved, assuming the Tyler Glasnow deal becomes official on Friday.
As often is the case, free agents come first. And three top starters, right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto and lefties Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, remain unsigned, as do a number of other options on the open market.
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Before Glasnow, the most significant starter to move was converted reliever Michael King, who went from the Yankees to the Padres in the Juan Soto blockbuster. The White Sox’s Dylan Cease, Brewers’ Corbin Burnes and Guardians’ Shane Bieber remain available. Neither the Mariners nor Marlins has traded a starter of consequence. Neither the Reds nor Orioles has dealt for one. And trade activity beyond those pitchers and teams is possible, if not likely.
The Glasnow deal, if completed, will be something of a coup for the Rays as well as the Dodgers. Glasnow, 30, is a Southern California native. By sending him to a place he wants to go and a team willing to give him an extension, the Rays will exact a better-than-expected return for a pitcher who is set to earn $25 million next season in his final year of club control.
Even the inclusion of outfielder Manuel Margot will not greatly depress the Rays’ haul, in part because Tampa Bay will include a reported $4 million to defray the remaining $12 million Margot is guaranteed. That’s right, one of the game’s lowest-revenue clubs is poised to write a check to a big-market monster that just signed Shohei Ohtani for $700 million. Baseball, as always, is full of weird surprises.
The deal still will save the Rays about $33 million in 2024 salary while enabling them to acquire right-hander Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca. Those two players entered last season as the Dodgers’ No. 13 and 19 prospects, respectively, according to The Athletic’s Keith Law — and that was before both had brief but impressive major-league showings last season.
It is an intriguing trade, perhaps the first of many. But Yamamoto, Snell and Montgomery are not only the free-agent starters still available. The next tier includes Marcus Stroman, Michael Wacha, Lucas Giolito and Shota Imanaga. And the trade market might continue to lag until a number of those names are off the board.
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A look at where things stand on various fronts, according to major-league sources briefed on conversations taking place in the industry.
Top of the market
The White Sox are talking to clubs about Cease, but still seem inclined to wait until after Yoshinobu and company sign, believing the urgency of teams that strike out on those pitchers will only increase.
Cease, who is under club control for two more seasons, remains an obvious target for the Reds and Orioles, who are not involved with the top free agents. But he also is a possibility for other teams monitoring the trade market, a group that includes the Yankees, Giants, Braves and Rangers.
The same goes for Burnes, whom the Brewers are willing to trade, but only for the proverbial right price. Like Glasnow, Burnes is under club control for only one more season. Burnes, however, is represented by Scott Boras, making him unlikely to sign an extension with a team that acquires him. Glasnow is represented by Wasserman Media Group, which historically is more open to such deals.
Then there is Bieber, who also is under club control for only one more season and seemingly in lesser demand. The Guardians recently signed right-hander Ben Lively to a major-league contract, but it’s difficult to imagine the addition of such a modestly accomplished pitcher as a precursor to a Bieber trade.
Bieber is coming off an elbow issue that limited his second-half availability to two starts in September. His average four-seam fastball velocity, 94.1 mph in his 2020 Cy Young season, dropped to 91.3 the past two years. The Guardians’ best option might be to hold him, thinking he might rebuild his value before the trade deadline.
The problem is, MLBTradeRumors.com projects Bieber to earn $12.2 million in arbitration. The Guardians, one of several clubs exercising financial restraint because of uncertainty surrounding its regional sports network, might simply want to move his salary. Earlier this offseason, they designated righty Cal Quantrill for assignment and traded him to the Rockies to clear his projected $6.6 million salary and create flexibility for other moves.
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The defending World Series champions
A week ago, I wrote about the possibility of the Rangers adding free-agent left-hander Clayton Kershaw and activating him after the All-Star break with another elite pitcher coming off surgery, Jacob deGrom.
Using similar logic, the Rangers on Thursday signed free-agent righty Tyler Mahle to a two-year, $22 million deal. Mahle underwent Tommy John surgery in May and likely will be out until at least mid-season. Kershaw is on a similar timetable coming off surgery to repair the glenohumeral ligaments and capsule in his left shoulder. But a source briefed on the Rangers’ thinking described him as still “very much” in play.
The Rangers want to build the same type of pitching depth that carried them to their first Series title. Teams generally grow revenue the season after they win a championship, but the Rangers are another club facing an uncertain future with its RSN.
If ownership becomes more comfortable adding payroll, the Rangers could pursue a reunion with Montgomery or a trade for one of the top starters. Bulking up the bullpen would be another option.
The Mariners
One rival executive interested in starting pitching speculated Thursday that the Mariners’ seeming reluctance to trade one of their young pitchers stems from their own RSN concerns.
The Mariners have spent the early part of the offseason creating payroll flexibility. From that perspective alone, it would make little sense for them to trade a minimum-salary starter such as Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo. But finances are not the only reason they are disinclined to make such a deal.
The free-agent prices this offseason reinforce that young, controllable starters are the game’s most treasured commodity. If righty Seth Lugo can command a three-year, $45 million deal at 34, after his first season as a full-time starter, then the return for six years of either Miller or Woo should be sizable, to say the least.
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The Mariners’ rotation is their strength. After trading Brandon Williamson and Connor Phillips and Levi Stoudt, all to the Reds in separate deals for Eugenio Suarez/Jesse Winker and Luis Castillo, the team is not as deep as it once was in young starters. Put it all together, and a trade of Miller or Woo would appear increasingly doubtful.
Which probably means president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto will pull off some wacky blockbuster tomorrow.
The Marlins
Left-hander Jesús Luzardo (three years of club control) and right-hander Edward Cabrera (five) continue to draw interest. On one hand, the Marlins need to proceed with caution, considering right-hander Sandy Alcántara will spend the 2024 season recovering from Tommy John surgery and righty Eury Peréz will be on some kind of innings limit. On the other hand, new president of baseball operations Peter Bendix is said to be perhaps more open to moving a starter than his predecessor, Kim Ng.
Bendix previously was with the Rays, who routinely trade starters at peak value, before they start making too much money. Luzardo is projected to earn $5.9 million in the second of his four years of arbitration. Trading him might be the best way for the Marlins to address offensive needs while guarding against Luzardo’s value diminishing as he gets more expensive.
Other teams with starters
As the market evolves, a number of clubs might increase their willingness to trade a starter, either as a way of reducing their payroll or boosting their offense.
Among them:
The Astros
Executives from two clubs indicated this week that their teams are monitoring the possibility of the Astros trading left-hander Framber Valdez.
For a variety of reasons, such a move could make sense.
The Astros’ luxury-tax payroll, according to Fangraphs, currently stands at $237.4 million, slightly above the first threshold. Under owner Jim Crane, the team has exceeded the threshold only once, in the shortened 2020 season, when it turned out penalties were suspended due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Valdez, 30, is projected to earn $12.1 million in arbitration and become a free agent after the 2025 season. Trading him could provide a boost to the Astros’ farm system, which Baseball America ranked 27th in its midseason organization rankings. Perhaps the Astros could acquire help for their major-league bullpen, too.
A less dramatic move would be a trade of righty José Urquidy, whom the Astros have sought to deal in the past. Urquidy is projected to earn $3.5 million in arbitration. Like Valdez, he is under club control for two more seasons.
The Giants
The addition of a veteran starter, either through free agency or trade, would perhaps make it more likely that the Giants would deal from their young pitching group, an idea they already are entertaining.
Righties Tristan Beck and Keaton Winn made their major-league debuts last season. Lefty Kyle Harrison, the team’s top prospect, is perhaps untouchable, but the Giants might listen on three other minor leaguers with promise, lefty Carson Whisenhunt and righties Mason Black and Hayden Birdsong.
A failure to add a veteran starter might make the Giants more hesitant to part with pitching. The team, however, needs to add young, athletic position players who can defend. Dangling young arms might be the best way to get it done.
The Cubs
Teams are inquiring about Ben Brown and Hayden Wesneski, a pair of righties the Cubs acquired in separate trades for relievers David Robertson and Scott Effross at the 2022 deadline. The Cubs are not necessarily inclined to move either. But like the Giants, their willingness might increase if they add a veteran starter.
The improvement of the Cubs’ farm system, ranked sixth by Baseball America at midseason, creates newfound possibilities. To upgrade its offense and/or pitching, the team might be open to parting with young pitchers besides Brown and Wesneski as well as infielder/outfielder James Triantos, the Arizona Fall League offensive player of the year. Outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, right-hander Cade Horton and shortstop Matt Shaw might be the only Cubs’ prospects who are untouchable.
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As with so many other clubs, much depends on what the Cubs accomplish — or fail to accomplish — in free agency. Ten days before Christmas, so much remains unresolved. But one way or another, trades are coming, all across the industry. It just might take a little more time.
(Top photo of Dylan Cease: Adam Bettcher / Getty Images)