Search Results (165)

This study explored the impacts of various rainfall input types on short-term runoff simulations using the Cell2Flood model in the Waryong Reservoir Basin, South Korea. Six types of rainfall data were assessed: on-site gauge measurements, spatially interpolated data from 39 Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) and 117 Automatic Weather System (AWS) stations using inverse distance weighting (IDW), and Hybrid Surface Rainfall (HSR) data from the Korea Meteorological Administration. The choice of rainfall input significantly affected model accuracy across the three rainfall events. The point-gauged ASOS (P-ASOS) data demonstrated the highest reliability in capturing the observed rainfall patterns, with Pearson’s r values of up to 0.84, whereas the radar-derived HSR data had the lowest correlations (Pearson’s r below 0.2), highlighting substantial discrepancies. For runoff simulation, the P-ASOS and ASOS-AWS combined interpolated dataset (R-AWS) achieved relatively accurate predictions, with P-ASOS and R-AWS exhibiting Normalized Peak Error (NPE) values of approximately 0.03 and Peak Time Error (PTE) within 20 min. In contrast, the HSR data produced large errors, with NPE up to 4.66 and PTE deviations exceeding 200 min, indicating poor temporal accuracy. Although input-specific calibration improved performance, significant errors persisted because of the inherent uncertainty of rainfall data. These findings underscore the importance of selecting and calibrating appropriate rainfall inputs to enhance the reliability of short-term flood modeling, particularly in ungauged and data-sparse basins. Full article

This article provides a comprehensive overview of ice-jam flood forecasting methodologies applicable to rivers during freezing. It emphasizes the importance of understanding river ice processes and fluvial geomorphology for developing a freeze-up ice-jam flood forecasting system. The article showcases a stochastic modelling approach, which involves simulating a deterministic river ice model multiple times with varying parameters and boundary conditions. This approach has been applied to the Exploits River at Badger in Newfoundland, Canada, a river that has experienced several freeze-up ice-jam floods. The forecasting involves two approaches: predicting the extent of the ice cover during river freezing and using an ensemble method to determine backwater flood level elevations. Other examples of current ice-jam flood forecasting systems for the Kokemäenjoki River (Pori, Finland), Saint John River (Edmundston, NB, Canada), and Churchill River (Mud Lake, NL, Canada) that are operational are also presented. The text provides a detailed explanation of the processes involved in river freeze-up and ice-jam formation, as well as the methodologies used for freeze-up ice-jam flood forecasting. Ice-jam flood forecasting systems used for freeze-up were compared to those employed for spring breakup. Spring breakup and freeze-up ice-jam flood forecasting systems differ in their driving factors and methodologies. Spring breakup, driven by snowmelt runoff, typically relies on deterministic and probabilistic approaches to predict peak flows. Freeze-up, driven by cold temperatures, focuses on the complex interactions between atmospheric conditions, river flow, and ice dynamics. Both systems require air temperature forecasts, but snowpack data are more crucial for spring breakup forecasting. To account for uncertainty, both approaches may employ ensemble forecasting techniques, generating multiple forecasts using slightly different initial conditions or model parameters. The objective of this review is to provide an overview of the current state-of-the-art in ice-jam flood forecasting systems and to identify gaps and areas for improvement in existing ice-jam flood forecasting approaches, with a focus on enhancing their accuracy, reliability, and decision-making potential. In conclusion, an effective freeze-up ice-jam flood forecasting system requires real-time data collection and analysis, historical data analysis, ice jam modeling, user interface design, alert systems, and integration with other relevant systems. This combination allows operators to better understand ice jam behavior and make informed decisions about potential risks or mitigation measures to protect people and property along rivers. The key findings of this review are as follows: (i) Ice-jam flood forecasting systems are often based on simple, empirical models that rely heavily on historical data and limited real-time monitoring information. (ii) There is a need for more sophisticated modeling techniques that can better capture the complex interactions between ice cover, water levels, and channel geometry. (iii) Combining data from multiple sources such as satellite imagery, ground-based sensors, numerical models, and machine learning algorithms can significantly improve the accuracy and reliability of ice-jam flood forecasts. (iv) Effective decision-support tools are crucial for integrating ice-jam flood forecasts into emergency response and mitigation strategies. Full article

Due to the high uncertainty of model predictions, it is often challenging to draw definitive conclusions when evaluating river water quality in the context of management options. The major aim of this study is to present a statistical evaluation of the Hydrologic Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF), which is a water quality modeling system, and how this modeling system can be used as a valuable tool to enhance monitoring planning and reduce uncertainty in water quality predictions. The authors’ findings regarding the sensitivity analysis of the HSPF model in relation to water quality predictions are presented. The application of the computer model was focused on the Ave River watershed in Portugal. Calibration of the hydrology was performed at two stations over five years, starting from January 1990 and ending in December 1994. Following the calibration, the hydrology model was then validated for another five-year period, from January 1995 to December 1999. A comprehensive evaluation framework is proposed, which includes a two-step statistical evaluation based on commonly used hydrology criteria for model calibration and validation. To thoroughly assess model uncertainty and parameter sensitivity, a Monte Carlo method uncertainty evaluation approach is integrated, along with multi-parametric sensitivity analyses. The Monte Carlo simulation considers the probability distributions of fourteen HSPF water quality parameters, which are used as input factors. The parameters that had the greatest impact on the simulated in-stream fecal coliform concentrations were those that represented the first-order decay rate and the surface runoff mechanism, which effectively removed 90 percent of the fecal coliform from the pervious land surface. These parameters had a more significant influence compared to the accumulation and maximum storage rates. When it comes to the oxygen governing process, the parameters that showed the highest sensitivity were benthal oxygen demand and nitrification/denitrification rate. The insights that can be derived from this study play a critical role in the development of robust water management strategies, and their significance lies in their potential to contribute to the advancement of predictive models in the field of water resources. Full article

Hydrological modeling plays a vital role in water-resource management and climate-change studies in hyper-arid regions. In the present investigation, surface runoff was estimated by a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for Wadi Al-Aqul, Saudi Arabia. The Sequential Uncertainty Fitting version 2 (SUFI-2) technique in SWAT-CUP was adopted for the sensitivity analysis, calibration, and validation of the SWAT model’s components. The observational runoff data were scarce and only available from 1979 to 1984; such data scarcity is a common problem in hyper-arid regions. The results show good agreement with the observed daily runoff, as indicated by a Pearson Correlation Coefficient (r) of 0.86, a regression (R²) of 0.76, and a Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) of 0.61. Error metrics, including the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), were notably low at 0.05 and 0.58, respectively. In the daily validation, the model continued to perform well, with a correlation of 0.76 and regression of 0.58. As a new approach, fitted parameters of daily calibration were incorporated into the monthly simulation, and they demonstrated an even better performance. The correlation coefficient (regression) and Nash–Sutcliffe were found to be extremely high during the calibration period of the monthly simulation, reaching 0.97 (0.95) and 0.73, respectively; meanwhile, they reached 0.99 (0.98) and 0.63 in the validation period, respectively. The sensitivity analysis using the SUFI-2 algorithm highlighted that, in the streamflow estimation, the Curve Number (CN) was found to be the most responsive parameter, followed by Soil Bulk Density (SOL_BD). Notably, the monthly results showed a higher performance than the daily results, indicating the inherent capability of the model in regard to data aggregation and reducing the impact of random fluctuations. These findings highlight the applicability of the SWAT model in predicting runoff and its implication for climate-change studies in hyper-arid regions. Full article

Flow–duration curves (FDCs) provide a compact view of the historical variability of river flows, reflecting climate conditions and the main hydrologic features of river basins. The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission will enable the estimation of river flows globally, by sensing rivers wider than 100 m with a sampling recurrence from 3 to 21 days. This study investigated the lifetime mission potential for FDC estimation through the comparison between remotely-sensed and empirical FDCs. We employed the Global Runoff Data Center dataset and derived SWOT-like river flows by selecting gauging stations of rivers wider than 100 m with more than 10-year long daily river flow time series. Overall, 1200 gauged river cross-sections were examined. For each site, we created a set of 24 SWOT-simulated FDCs (i.e., based on different sampling recurrences, mean biases, and random errors) to be compared against their empirical counterparts through the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and the mean relative error. Our results show that climate and the sampling recurrence play a key role on the performance of SWOT-based FDCs. Tropical and temperate climates performed the best, whereas arid climates mostly revealed higher uncertainties, especially for high- and low-flows. Full article

An accurate quantification of flow components and an understanding of water source dynamics are essential for effective water resource and quality management. However, the complexity of hydrological processes and the interference of intensive human activities pose significant challenges in precisely separating water discharge into distinct components such as surface runoff, interflow, and groundwater. The Xinanjiang (XAJ) model, a conceptual watershed hydrological model, has been developed and successfully implemented for rainfall–runoff simulations and hydrograph separations across various Chinese watersheds. While the model framework is robust, it fails to account for agricultural irrigation water withdrawals and the variations in in-stream water travel times across different hydrological regimes, introducing considerable uncertainty in simulating low-flow conditions. This study introduced modifications to the XAJ model by allowing parameter adjustments across different flow regimes and incorporating irrigation withdrawals into the runoff routing process. Utilizing a decade of hydrometeorological data (2013–2022) from the Yongan River watershed in eastern China, the modified model demonstrated improved efficiency metrics in low- and medium-flow regimes compared to the original model, with a Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient improvement from −4.43~−0.49 to 0.40~0.46, R² from 0.21~0.36 to 0.53~0.63, and BIAS reduction from 7.60~89.08% to 2.06~12.71%. Furthermore, the modified XAJ model provided a more accurate estimation of the spatial and temporal distribution of streamflow components across sub-watersheds. The original model tended to overestimate groundwater contributions (13%) and underestimate interflow (14%), particularly in low-flow conditions. The enhanced XAJ model, thus, offers a more effective tool for identifying streamflow components, providing essential insights into hydrological processes for better management decisions. Full article

The natural hydrological cycle of basins has been significantly altered by climate change and human activities, leading to considerable uncertainties in attributing runoff. In this study, the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff of the Ganjiang River Basin was analyzed, and a variety of models with different spatio-temporal scales and complexities were used to evaluate the influence of model choice on runoff attribution and to reduce the uncertainties. The results show the following: (1) The potential evapotranspiration in the Ganjiang River Basin showed a significant downward trend, precipitation showed a significant upward trend, runoff showed a nonsignificant upward trend, and an abrupt change was detected in 1968; (2) The three hydrological models used with different temporal scales and complexity, GR1A, ABCD, DTVGM, can simulate the natural distribution of water resources in the Ganjiang River Basin; and (3) The impact of climate change on runoff change ranges from 60.07% to 82.88%, while human activities account for approximately 17.12% to 39.93%. The results show that climate change is the main driving factor leading to runoff variation in the Ganjiang River Basin. Full article

The design of hydraulic structures in the Arctic is complicated by shallow relief, which cause unique runoff processes that promote snow-damming and refreeze of runoff. We discuss the challenges encountered in modeling snowmelt runoff into two coastal freshwater lagoons in Utqiaġvik, Alaska. Stage-frequency curves with quantified uncertainty were required to design two new discharge gates that would allow snowmelt runoff flows through a proposed coastal revetment. To estimate runoff hydrographs arriving at the lagoons, we modeled snowpack accumulation and ablation using SnowModel which in turn was used to force a physically-based hydraulic runoff model (HEC-RAS). Our results demonstrate the successful development of stage-frequency curves by incorporating a Monte Carlo simulation approach that quantifies the variability in runoff timing and volume. Our process highlights the complexities of Arctic hydrology by incorporating significant delays in runoff onset due to localized snow accumulation and melting processes. This methodology not only addresses the uncertainty in snow-damming and refreeze processes which affect the arrival time of snowmelt inflow peaks, but is also adaptable for application in other challenging environments where secondary runoff processes are predominant. Full article

Urban floods caused by extreme rainstorm events have increased in recent decades, particularly in concave-down bridge zones. To simulate urban flooding processes accurately, an integrated urban flood model (IUFM) was constructed by coupling a distributed urban surface runoff model based on the cellular automata framework (CA-DUSRM), a widely used pipe convergence module in the storm water management model (SWMM), with an inundation module that describes the overflow expansion process associated with terrain and land-cover. The IUFM was used in a case study of the Anhua Bridge (a typical concave-down overpass) study area in Beijing, China. The spatial-temporal variations in flood depth modeled by the IUFM were verified to be reliable by comparison with actual measurements and other simulations. The validated IUFM was used to obtain temporal variations in flood range, depth, and volume under four rainstorm scenarios (return periods of 3-year, 10-year, 50-year, and 100-year). The results showed that the surface runoff process, overflow from drainage networks, and overflow expansion process could affect the flooding status by changing the composition and spatial configuration of pervious or impervious patches, drainage capacity, and underlying surface characteristics (such as terrain and land-cover). Overall, although the simulation results from the IUFM contain uncertainties from the model structures and inputs, the IUFM is an effective tool that can provide accurate and timely information to prevent and control urban flood disasters and provide decision-making support for long-term storm water management and sponge city construction. Full article

The renewable-dominant hybrid generation systems (HGSs) are increasingly important to the electric power system worldwide. However, influenced by uncertain meteorological factors, the operational robustness of HGSs must be evaluated to inform the associated decision-making. Additionally, the main factors affecting the HGS’s robustness should be urgently identified under deep uncertainties, as this provides valuable guidance for HGS capacity configuration. In this paper, a multivariate stochastic simulation method is developed and used to generate uncertain resource scenarios of runoff, photovoltaic power, and wind power. Subsequently, a long-term stochastic optimization model of the HGS is employed to derive the optimal operating rules. Finally, these operating rules are used to simulate the long-term operation of an HGS, and the results are used to evaluate the HGS’s robustness and identify its main sensitivities. A clean energy base located in the Upper Yellow River Basin, China, is selected as a case study. The results show that the HGS achieves greater operational robustness than an individual hydropower system, and the robustness becomes weaker as the total capacity of photovoltaic and wind power increases. Additionally, the operational robustness of the HGS is found to be more sensitive to the total capacity than to the capacity ratio between photovoltaic and wind power. Full article

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) is pivotal in understanding environmental dynamics, climate change, and human impacts. Despite the utility of land surface models, uncertainties persist in their parameterization schemes. This study employs GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite data to optimize the runoff parameterization scheme within the Common Land Model by a data assimilation and parameter optimization method. The optimization algorithm sets an adjustment factor that varies with time and space for runoff simulation and updates it along with the running of the land surface model. The evaluation reveals that there are improved correlation coefficients and reduced root mean square errors compared to GRACE observations. Independent assessments by using in situ river discharge observations demonstrate enhanced model performance, particularly in mountainous regions such as western North America. This study underscores the efficacy of integrating GRACE data to improve land surface model parameterization, offering more accurate predictions of TWS changes. Full article

Recently, the Agricultural Policy Extender (APEX) model was enhanced with a grazing module, and the modified grazing database, APEXgraze, recommends sustainable livestock farming practices. This study developed a combinatorial deterministic approach to calibrate runoff-related parameters, assuming a normal probability distribution for each parameter. Using the calibrated APEXgraze model, the impact of grazing operations on native prairie and cropland planted with winter wheat and oats in central Oklahoma was assessed. The existing performance criteria produced four solutions with very close values for calibrating runoff at the farm outlet, exhibiting equifinality. The calibrated results showed that runoff representations had coefficients of determination and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies >0.6 in both watersheds, irrespective of grazing operations. Because of non-unique solutions, the key parameter settings revealed different metrics yielding different response variables. Based on the least objective function value, the behavior of watersheds under different management and grazing intensities was compared. Model simulations indicated significantly reduced water yield, deep percolation, sediment yield, phosphorus and nitrogen loadings, and plant temperature stress after imposing grazing, particularly in native prairies, as compared to croplands. Differences in response variables were attributed to the intensity of tillage and grazing activities. As expected, grazing reduced forage yields in native prairies and increased crop grain yields in cropland. The use of a combinatorial deterministic approach to calibrating parameters offers several new research benefits when developing farm management models and quantifying sensitive parameters and uncertainties that recommend optimal farm management strategies under different climate and management conditions. Full article

Flood control operation of cascade reservoirs is an important technology to reduce flood disasters and increase economic benefits. Flood forecast information can help reservoir managers make better use of flood resources and reduce flood risks. In this paper, a hierarchical pre-release flood operation rule considering the flood forecast and its uncertainty information is proposed for real-time flood control. A many-objective optimization model considering the cascade reservoir’s power generation objective, flood control objective, and navigation objective is established. Then, a region search evolutionary algorithm is applied to optimize the many-objective optimization model in a real-world case study upstream of the Yangtze River basin. The optimization experimental results show that the region search evolutionary algorithm can balance convergence and diversity well, and the HV value is 40% higher than the MOEA/D algorithm. The simulation flood control results of cascade reservoirs upstream of the Yangtze River demonstrate that the optimized flood control rule can increase the average multi-year power generation of cascade reservoirs by a maximum of 27.72 × 10⁸ kWh under the condition of flood control safety. The rules proposed in this paper utilize flood resources by identifying runoff forecast information, and pre-release to the flood limit level 145 m before the big flood occurs, so as to ensure the safety downstream and the dam’s own flood control and provide reliable decision support for reservoir managers. Full article

In this study, the uncertainty in runoff simulations using hydrological models was quantified based on the selection of five evaluation metrics and calibration data length. The calibration data length was considered to vary from 1 to 11 years, and runoff analysis was performed using a soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). SWAT parameter optimization was then performed using R-SWAT. The results show that the uncertainty was lower when using a calibration data length of five to seven years, with seven years achieving the lowest uncertainty. Runoff simulations using a calibration data length of more than seven years yielded higher uncertainty overall but lower uncertainty for extreme runoff simulations compared to parameters with less than five years of calibration data. Different uncertainty evaluation metrics show different levels of uncertainty, which means it is necessary to consider multiple evaluation metrics rather than relying on any one single metric. Among the evaluation metrics, the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) and normalized root-mean-squared error (NRMSE) had large uncertainties at short calibration data lengths, whereas the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) and Percent Bias (Pbias) had large uncertainties at long calibration data lengths. Full article

This study presents the projected future evolution of water resource balance and nitrate pollution under various climate change scenarios and climatic models using a holistic approach. The study area is Almyros Basin and its aquifer system, located in Central Greece, Thessaly, Greece. Almyros Basin is a coastal agricultural basin and faces the exacerbation of water deficit and groundwater nitrate pollution. Using an Integrated Modeling System (IMS), which consists of the surface hydrology model (UTHBAL), the nitrate leachate model (REPIC, an R-ArcGIS-based EPIC model), the groundwater hydrology model (MODFLOW), and the nitrates’ advection, dispersion, and transport model (MT3MDS), the projected values of the variables of water quantity and quality are simulated. Nineteen climatic models from the Med-CORDEX database were bias-corrected with the Quantile Empirical Mapping method and employed to capture the variability in the simulated surface and groundwater water balance and nitrate dynamics. The findings indicate that future precipitation, runoff, and groundwater recharge will decrease while temperature and potential evapotranspiration will increase. Climate change will lead to reduced nitrogen leaching, lower groundwater levels, and persistent nitrate pollution; however, it will be accompanied by high variability and uncertainty, as simulations of IMS under multiple climatic models indicate. Full article