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18 pages, 2442 KiB  
Article
Influence of Polymer Concentration on the Viscous and (Linear and Non-Linear) Viscoelastic Properties of Hydrolyzed Polyacrylamide Systems in Bulk Shear Field and Porous Media
by Madhar Sahib Azad
Polymers 2024, 16(18), 2617; https://doi.org/10.3390/polym16182617 (registering DOI) - 15 Sep 2024
Abstract
Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods are generally employed in depleted reservoirs to increase the recovery factor beyond that of water flooding. Polymer flooding is one of the major EOR methods. EOR polymer solutions (especially the synthetic ones characterized by flexible chains) that flow [...] Read more.
Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods are generally employed in depleted reservoirs to increase the recovery factor beyond that of water flooding. Polymer flooding is one of the major EOR methods. EOR polymer solutions (especially the synthetic ones characterized by flexible chains) that flow through porous media are not only subjected to shearing forces but also extensional deformation, and therefore, they exhibit not only Newtonian and shear thinning behavior but also shear thickening behavior at a certain porous media shear rate/velocity. Shear rheometry has been widely used to characterize the rheological properties of EOR polymer systems. This paper aims to investigate the effect of the polymers’ concentrations, ranging from 25 ppm to 2500 ppm, on the viscous, linear, and non-linear viscoelastic properties of hydrolyzed polyacrylamide (HPAM) in shear field and porous media. The results observed indicate that viscous properties such as Newtonian viscosity increase monotonically with the increase in concentration in both fields. However, linear viscoelastic properties, such as shear characteristic time, were absent for concentrations not critical in both shear rheometry and porous media. Beyond the critical association concentration (CAC), the modified shear thinning index decreases in terms of concentration in both fields, signifying their intensified thinning. At those concentrations higher than CAC, the viscoelastic onset rate remains constant in both fields. In both fields, the shear thickening index, a strict non-linear viscoelastic property, initially increases with concentration and then decreases with concentration, signifying that the polymer chains do not stretch significantly at higher concentrations. Also, another general observation is that the rheological properties of the polymer solutions in both porous media and shear rheometry only follow a similar trend if the concentration is higher than the CAC. At concentrations less than the CAC, the shear and porous media onset rates follow different trends, possibly due to the higher inertial effect in the rheometer. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Polymer Processing and Engineering)
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<p>Effect of polymer concentration on the shear rheological behavior of HPAM systems.</p>
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<p>Newtonian viscosity as a function of polymer concentration for HPAM systems.</p>
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<p>Shear characteristic time as a function of polymer concentration for HPAM systems.</p>
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<p>Shear thinning index as a function of concentration.</p>
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<p>Viscoelastic onset rate as a function of polymer concentration.</p>
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<p>Power-law fit between two points extracted between the onset rate and 1000 s<sup>−1</sup> for HPAM 3630 systems at (<b>a</b>) 25 ppm, (<b>b</b>) 50 ppm, (<b>c</b>) 100 ppm, (<b>d</b>) 200 ppm, (<b>e</b>) 480 ppm, (<b>f</b>) 900 ppm, (<b>g</b>) 1600 ppm, (<b>h</b>) 2500 ppm.</p>
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<p>Shear thickening index (extracted from <a href="#polymers-16-02617-f006" class="html-fig">Figure 6</a>a–h) as a function of the concentration of the investigated HPAM solutions.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>) Effect of concentration on all bulk shear rheological parameters; (<b>b</b>) Effect of concentration on the modified shear thinning and shear thickening index.</p>
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<p>Porous media rheogram of HPAM 3830 systems at various concentrations from 25 ppm to 2500 ppm, adapted from [<a href="#B17-polymers-16-02617" class="html-bibr">17</a>,<a href="#B45-polymers-16-02617" class="html-bibr">45</a>].</p>
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<p>Comparison between the values of the Newtonian viscosity in shear and porous media for HPAM systems of various concentrations.</p>
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<p>Comparison between the thinning indices in shear and porous media for HPAM systems of different concentrations.</p>
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<p>Comparison between the shear thickening index and porous media thickening index for HPAM systems of different concentrations.</p>
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<p>Comparison between the shear onset rate in the shear field and porous media for HPAM systems of different concentrations.</p>
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27 pages, 4776 KiB  
Systematic Review
A Megacities Review: Comparing Indicator-Based Evaluations of Sustainable Development and Urban Resilience
by Brian R. Mackay and Richard R. Shaker
Sustainability 2024, 16(18), 8076; https://doi.org/10.3390/su16188076 (registering DOI) - 15 Sep 2024
Abstract
Urbanization is defining global change, and megacities are fast becoming a hallmark of the Anthropocene. Humanity’s pursuit toward sustainability is reliant on the successful management of these massive urban centers and their progression into sustainable and resilient settlements. Indicators and indices are applied [...] Read more.
Urbanization is defining global change, and megacities are fast becoming a hallmark of the Anthropocene. Humanity’s pursuit toward sustainability is reliant on the successful management of these massive urban centers and their progression into sustainable and resilient settlements. Indicators and indices are applied assessment and surveillance tools used to measure, monitor, and gauge the sustainable development and urban resilience of megacities. Unknown is how indicator-based evaluations of sustainable development and urban resilience of the world’s largest 43 cities compare. In response, this review paper used the PRISMA reporting protocol, governed by 33 established and 10 emerging megacities, to compare and contrast evaluations of sustainable development and urban resilience. Results reveal that applied assessments of sustainable development of megacities appeared earlier in time and were more abundant than those of urban resilience. Geographically, China dominated other nations in affiliations to scientific research for both sustainable development and urban resilience of megacities. Among the 100 most recurrent terms, three distinct key term clusters formed for sustainable development; seven budding key term clusters formed for urban resilience suggesting breadth in contrast to sustainable development depth. The most cited assessments of sustainable development emphasize topics of energy, methodological approaches, and statistical modeling. The most cited assessments of urban resilience emphasize topics of flooding, transit networks, and disaster risk resilience. Megacities research is dominated by few countries, suggesting a need for inclusion and international partnerships. Lastly, as the world’s people become increasingly urbanized, sustainable development and urban resilience of megacities will serve as a key barometer for humanity’s progress toward sustainability. Full article
19 pages, 4301 KiB  
Article
The Necessity of Updating IDF Curves for the Sharjah Emirate, UAE: A Comparative Analysis of 2020 IDF Values in Light of Recent Urban Flooding (April 2024)
by Khalid B. Almheiri, Rabee Rustum, Grant Wright and Adebayo J. Adeloye
Water 2024, 16(18), 2621; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16182621 (registering DOI) - 15 Sep 2024
Abstract
In the arid Arabian Peninsula, particularly within the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the perception of rainfall has shifted from a natural blessing to a significant challenge for infrastructure and community resilience. The unprecedented storm on 17 April 2024, exposed critical vulnerabilities in the [...] Read more.
In the arid Arabian Peninsula, particularly within the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the perception of rainfall has shifted from a natural blessing to a significant challenge for infrastructure and community resilience. The unprecedented storm on 17 April 2024, exposed critical vulnerabilities in the UAE’s urban infrastructure and flood management practices, revealing substantial gaps in handling accumulated precipitation. This study addresses the necessity of updating the Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves for the Sharjah Emirate by utilizing recent precipitation data from 2021 to April 2024, alongside previously published 2020 data. By recalibrating the IDF curves based on data from three meteorological stations, this study reveals a substantial increase in rainfall intensities across all durations and return periods. Rainfall intensities increased by an average of 36.76% in Sharjah, 26.52% in Al Dhaid, and 17.55% in Mleiha. These increases indicate a trend towards more severe and frequent rainfall events, emphasizing the urgent need to revise hydrological models and infrastructure designs to enhance flood resilience. This study contributes valuable insights for policymakers, urban planners, and disaster management authorities in the UAE and similar regions worldwide. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change and Hydrological Processes)
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<p>(<b>a</b>,<b>b</b>) The submersion of ground floors in residential properties.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>,<b>b</b>) The submergence of major roads due to rainwater.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>,<b>b</b>) Vehicles partially and fully submerged.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>,<b>b</b>) Two roads impacted by the destructive wadi.</p>
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<p>Map of the UAE showing the location of the Sharjah Emirate and its three regions [<a href="#B8-water-16-02621" class="html-bibr">8</a>].</p>
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<p>Map of the Sharjah Emirate showing the locations of the meteorological stations used in this study [<a href="#B8-water-16-02621" class="html-bibr">8</a>].</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>) The increase in IDF curve values for a 2-year return period in Sharjah City. (<b>b</b>) The increase in IDF curve values for a 10-year return period in Sharjah City. (<b>c</b>) The increase in IDF curve values for a 100-year return period in Sharjah City. (<b>d</b>,<b>e</b>) OLD and NEW IDF curve values for Sharjah City, respectively.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>) The increase in IDF curve values for a 2-year return period in Sharjah City. (<b>b</b>) The increase in IDF curve values for a 10-year return period in Sharjah City. (<b>c</b>) The increase in IDF curve values for a 100-year return period in Sharjah City. (<b>d</b>,<b>e</b>) OLD and NEW IDF curve values for Sharjah City, respectively.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>) The increase in IDF curve values for a 2-year return period in Al Dhaid. (<b>b</b>) The increase in IDF curve values for a 10-year return period in Al Dhaid. (<b>c</b>) The increase in IDF curve values for a 100-year return period in Al Dhaid. (<b>d</b>,<b>e</b>) OLD and NEW IDF curve values for Al Dhaid, respectively.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>) The increase in IDF curve values for a 2-year return period in Al Dhaid. (<b>b</b>) The increase in IDF curve values for a 10-year return period in Al Dhaid. (<b>c</b>) The increase in IDF curve values for a 100-year return period in Al Dhaid. (<b>d</b>,<b>e</b>) OLD and NEW IDF curve values for Al Dhaid, respectively.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>) The increase in IDF curve values for a 2-year return period in Mleiha. (<b>b</b>) The increase in IDF curve values for a 10-year return period in Mleiha. (<b>c</b>) The increase in IDF curve values for a 100-year return period in Mleiha. (<b>d</b>,<b>e</b>) OLD and NEW IDF curve values for Mleiha, respectively.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>) The increase in IDF curve values for a 2-year return period in Mleiha. (<b>b</b>) The increase in IDF curve values for a 10-year return period in Mleiha. (<b>c</b>) The increase in IDF curve values for a 100-year return period in Mleiha. (<b>d</b>,<b>e</b>) OLD and NEW IDF curve values for Mleiha, respectively.</p>
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16 pages, 2868 KiB  
Article
Automatic Water Body Extraction from SAR Images Based on MADF-Net
by Jing Wang, Dongmei Jia, Jiaxing Xue, Zhongwu Wu and Wanying Song
Remote Sens. 2024, 16(18), 3419; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16183419 (registering DOI) - 14 Sep 2024
Viewed by 199
Abstract
Water extraction from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images has an important application value in wetland monitoring, flood monitoring, etc. However, it still faces the problems of low generalization, weak extraction ability of detailed information, and weak suppression of background noises. Therefore, a new [...] Read more.
Water extraction from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images has an important application value in wetland monitoring, flood monitoring, etc. However, it still faces the problems of low generalization, weak extraction ability of detailed information, and weak suppression of background noises. Therefore, a new framework, Multi-scale Attention Detailed Feature fusion Network (MADF-Net), is proposed in this paper. It comprises an encoder and a decoder. In the encoder, ResNet101 is used as a solid backbone network to capture four feature levels at different depths, and then the proposed Deep Pyramid Pool (DAPP) module is used to perform multi-scale pooling operations, which ensure that key water features can be captured even in complex backgrounds. In the decoder, a Channel Spatial Attention Module (CSAM) is proposed, which focuses on feature areas that are critical for the identification of water edges by fusing attention weights in channel and spatial dimensions. Finally, the high-level semantic information is effectively fused with the low-level edge features to achieve the final water detection results. In the experiment, Sentinel-1 SAR images of three scenes with different characteristics and scales of water body are used. The PA and IoU of water extraction by MADF-Net can reach 92.77% and 89.03%, respectively, which obviously outperform several other networks. MADF-Net carries out water extraction with high precision from SAR images with different backgrounds, which could also be used for the segmentation and classification of other tasks from SAR images. Full article
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<p>Block diagram of the network structure.</p>
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<p>DSCFE module structure.</p>
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<p>The structure of CSAM.</p>
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<p>The detection results of water for Scene I by different networks. (<b>a</b>) is the SAR image. (<b>b</b>) is the ground truth. (<b>c</b>–<b>f</b>) are the results of the DeepLabV3+, MADF-Net, GCN, and MFAF-Net, respectively. The blue color, green color, and red color denote correct water detection, missed detections, and false alarms for water, respectively.</p>
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<p>The detection results of water for Scene II by different networks. (<b>a</b>) is the SAR image. (<b>b</b>) is the ground truth. (<b>c</b>–<b>f</b>) are the results of the DeepLabV3+, MADF-Net, GCN, and MFAF-Net, respectively. The blue color, green color, and red color denote correct water detection, missed detections, and false alarms for water, respectively.</p>
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<p>The detection results of water for Scene III by different networks. (<b>a</b>) is the SAR image. (<b>b</b>) is the ground truth. (<b>c</b>–<b>f</b>) are the results of the DeepLabV3+, MADF-Net, GCN, and MFAF-Net, respectively. The blue color, green color, and red color denote correct water detection, missed detections, and false alarms for water, respectively.</p>
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30 pages, 17772 KiB  
Article
The Effects of Flood Damage on Urban Road Networks in Italy: The Critical Function of Underpasses
by Laura Turconi, Barbara Bono, Rebecca Genta and Fabio Luino
Land 2024, 13(9), 1493; https://doi.org/10.3390/land13091493 (registering DOI) - 14 Sep 2024
Viewed by 312
Abstract
The urban areas of Mediterranean Europe, and particularly Italy, have experienced considerable expansion since the late 19th century in terms of settlements, structures, and infrastructure, especially in large population centers. In such areas, the geohydrological risk is high not only for inhabited areas [...] Read more.
The urban areas of Mediterranean Europe, and particularly Italy, have experienced considerable expansion since the late 19th century in terms of settlements, structures, and infrastructure, especially in large population centers. In such areas, the geohydrological risk is high not only for inhabited areas but also along roadways exposed to flooding. This scenario is worrying, especially in road underpass sections, where drivers are unlikely to perceive a real risk due to the high degree of confidence that comes from the habit of driving. Underpasses have been widely used to obviate the need to find shorter alternative routes and manage vehicular traffic in urban settings impeded by previous anthropogenic and natural constraints. To assess the numerical consistency, frequency, and areal distribution of flood risk around road underpasses, several hundred pieces of data were selected (mostly from international, national and local newspapers, CNR IRPI archive and local archives) and cataloged in a thematic database, referring mainly to the Italian territory. The behavioral aspects in the face of risk were also examined in order to provide a better understanding and raise awareness for preventive purposes. The results of this specific CNR research, which lasted about two years, confirm the exposure of underpasses to extreme risk events, affecting road users. In Italy alone, between 1942 and 2023, 698 underpasses were identified as having experienced a flooding event at least once. The database shows that 680 vehicles were involved in Italy, with a total of at least 812 individuals, of whom 19 died. Despite incomplete and uneven information, the findings of the analysis regarding the increment in underpasses flooding and the drivers action in front of a flooded underpass may be useful for undertaking the appropriate mitigation strategies. Full article
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<p>Flooded underpasses analyzed in the dataset [<a href="#B40-land-13-01493" class="html-bibr">40</a>,<a href="#B41-land-13-01493" class="html-bibr">41</a>,<a href="#B42-land-13-01493" class="html-bibr">42</a>,<a href="#B43-land-13-01493" class="html-bibr">43</a>,<a href="#B44-land-13-01493" class="html-bibr">44</a>,<a href="#B45-land-13-01493" class="html-bibr">45</a>] that occurred in Italian areas in the past and in recent years. (<b>a</b>) Historical image of flooded underpass that occurred in Turin city (Piedmont, northwestern Italy) published in a national newspaper in 1983; (<b>b</b>) Sant’Elena, near Padua city, in Oriental Alps River Basin Districts in 2014; (<b>c</b>) Tradate city, in Po River Basin Districts in 2017; (<b>d</b>) Palermo city, in Sicily River Basin Districts in 2018; (<b>e</b>) Castellanza city, near Varese, in Po River Basin Districts in 2023; (<b>f</b>) Riccione city, in Central Appennine River Basin Districts in 2023.</p>
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<p>Subdivision of Italy by RBDs according to Floods Directive 2007/60/EC [<a href="#B48-land-13-01493" class="html-bibr">48</a>,<a href="#B49-land-13-01493" class="html-bibr">49</a>].</p>
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<p>Diachronic mapping of built-up area in a representative urban region, Grosseto city, Tuscany, North Appennine RBD (data source: CNR-IRPI archive). From left to right, the use of historical maps (1843) and remote sensing data in the form of aerial photographs, from 1954 (as reported in the central image of the figure) to early 2000s, and satellite imagery from the early 2000s to today is presented.</p>
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<p>Comparison of urbanized areas per CLC, 1990 and 2018 [<a href="#B51-land-13-01493" class="html-bibr">51</a>], per RBD. For each RBD, there is an increment on urbanized square kilometers, especially Po, Oriental Alps, and South Appennine RBD.</p>
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<p>Number of floods in whole Italian territory caused by heavy rain. Since 2018, there is a significant increment of this type of events and the increment is still ongoing [<a href="#B77-land-13-01493" class="html-bibr">77</a>].</p>
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<p>Example of integrated analysis of data planimetric variations of a short stretch of Stura di Lanzo River, northwest of Torino (Piemonte Region, Po RBD), period 1878–2000, obtained from the transposition of pattern in a GIS project of historical maps and aerial photographs found at CNR-IRPI in Turin and satellite images.</p>
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<p>Width reductions in terminal stretches of Roja River in coastal plains (Ventimiglia, Liguria, North Appennine RBD) measured via GIS using historical maps (1836) and current satellite images (2023).</p>
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<p>Distribution of underpasses obtained from technical maps [<a href="#B91-land-13-01493" class="html-bibr">91</a>] overlapping flooded areas in 2016 flood in Piedmont (Po RBD). Black dots indicate the underpasses manually individuated, while red dots indicate the underpasses present in Piedmont Cadastre. This flood could have a significant increment of flooded underpasses reported. The red outline indicates the urbanized area (as per 2018 CLC).</p>
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<p>Distribution of flooded underpasses in RBD areas, 1942–2023 (identified by the color of the outline shown in <a href="#land-13-01493-f002" class="html-fig">Figure 2</a>).</p>
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<p>Trends in Italian population (black line) and number of vehicles registered in Italy (green line) since 1942, in relation to surveyed flooded underpasses (red line). A steady increase in vehicles and higher number of floods since 2010 can be seen. The availability of online news and easier retrieval of data allowed details for the last 15 years. This graph does not consider the effect of changes in rainfall.</p>
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<p>Annual distribution of flooding events at surveyed underpasses in Italy by RBD, 2014–2023.</p>
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<p>Seasonal distribution of flooding events of surveyed underpasses in Italy by RBD.</p>
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<p>Starting from aerial and satellite images (<b>a</b>,<b>d</b>), proceeding with the restitution in flooded areas maps (<b>b</b>,<b>e</b>), finally it is possible to identify the underpasses affected by the flooding events (<b>c</b>,<b>f</b>). The example in the figure illustrates the 1994 (<b>a</b>–<b>c</b>) and the 2016 (<b>d</b>–<b>f</b>) flood event in Alessandria municipality (Piemonte region, Po RBD) (areas in blue), captured by aerial photography or satellite images (CNR IRPI archives and [<a href="#B92-land-13-01493" class="html-bibr">92</a>]). The dots in light blue indicate the underpasses flooded, while the red ones indicate the remaining ones recorded in the Piemonte Cadastre. In this area, the database obtained from the search of newspaper sources alone did not identify any underpasses involved neither in the 1994 event nor in the 2016 one. The areas affected by floods are in the same location most of the time (<b>g</b>), causing a reiteration in flooded underpasses (<b>h</b>). All flooded underpasses are located in a PGRA class [<a href="#B48-land-13-01493" class="html-bibr">48</a>,<a href="#B49-land-13-01493" class="html-bibr">49</a>].</p>
Full article ">Figure 13 Cont.
<p>Starting from aerial and satellite images (<b>a</b>,<b>d</b>), proceeding with the restitution in flooded areas maps (<b>b</b>,<b>e</b>), finally it is possible to identify the underpasses affected by the flooding events (<b>c</b>,<b>f</b>). The example in the figure illustrates the 1994 (<b>a</b>–<b>c</b>) and the 2016 (<b>d</b>–<b>f</b>) flood event in Alessandria municipality (Piemonte region, Po RBD) (areas in blue), captured by aerial photography or satellite images (CNR IRPI archives and [<a href="#B92-land-13-01493" class="html-bibr">92</a>]). The dots in light blue indicate the underpasses flooded, while the red ones indicate the remaining ones recorded in the Piemonte Cadastre. In this area, the database obtained from the search of newspaper sources alone did not identify any underpasses involved neither in the 1994 event nor in the 2016 one. The areas affected by floods are in the same location most of the time (<b>g</b>), causing a reiteration in flooded underpasses (<b>h</b>). All flooded underpasses are located in a PGRA class [<a href="#B48-land-13-01493" class="html-bibr">48</a>,<a href="#B49-land-13-01493" class="html-bibr">49</a>].</p>
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<p>Percentage distribution of the underpasses flooding causes for the complete database (period 1942–2023) (<b>a</b>) and for the reduced period 2010–2023 (<b>b</b>) in the four categories considered (pluvial flooding, urban flooding, fluvial flooding, coastal flooding).</p>
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<p>Underpass flooding in each RBD, 2010–2023, in relation to cumulative annual rainfall.</p>
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<p>Distribution of underpass flooding events by flood warning system and PGRA class (%). Red indicates underpasses without preventive measures, and green indicates underpasses with prevention.</p>
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<p>Distribution of vehicle involvement during flooding events of surveyed underpasses by time slot: 00:01 to 06:00 a.m., 06:01 to 12:00 p.m., 12:01 to 06:00 p.m., and 06:01 to 12:00 a.m. (night, morning, afternoon, and evening, respectively). The sample includes only the 195 events for which information was available.</p>
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<p>Behavior of some drivers in front of flooded underpass during event of 10 March 2024 in Monza province (Northern Italy, Po RBD). Different reactions can be observed: Vehicles in red circles pass, encouraged by van’s passing, which is higher off the ground than cars. The vehicle in the yellow circle stops, but it is unclear whether it will proceed further. A similar indication may have been apparent for the observer filming from the opposite side of the scene. There is nothing to suggest whether he too passed through flooded subway or merely filmed the scene. There is no reason to assume that the observer called for help or dissuaded drivers from going toward the underpass from his direction. The vehicle in the green circle was the only one to leave the underpass, reversing its direction, probably seeking an alternative route. No guards had been put in place by responsible parties or volunteers. There is no indication as to whether this underpass has signs warning of potential flooding (modified video frame from [<a href="#B99-land-13-01493" class="html-bibr">99</a>]).</p>
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<p>Flooded underpass during the event of May 2024 near Milan (Po RBD).</p>
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4 pages, 797 KiB  
Proceeding Paper
Accelerating Urban Drainage Simulations: A Data-Efficient GNN Metamodel for SWMM Flowrates
by Alexander Garzón, Zoran Kapelan, Jeroen Langeveld and Riccardo Taormina
Eng. Proc. 2024, 69(1), 137; https://doi.org/10.3390/engproc2024069137 (registering DOI) - 13 Sep 2024
Viewed by 46
Abstract
Computational models for water resources often experience slow execution times, limiting their application. Metamodels, especially those based on machine learning, offer a promising alternative. Our research extends a prior Graph Neural Network (GNN) metamodel for the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), which efficiently [...] Read more.
Computational models for water resources often experience slow execution times, limiting their application. Metamodels, especially those based on machine learning, offer a promising alternative. Our research extends a prior Graph Neural Network (GNN) metamodel for the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), which efficiently learns with less data and generalizes to new UDS sections via transfer learning. We extend the metamodel’s functioning by adding flowrate prediction, crucial for assessing water quality and flooding risks. Using an Encoder–Processor–Decoder architecture, the metamodel displays high accuracy on the simulated time series. Future work is aimed at incorporating more physical principles and testing further transferability. Full article
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<p>Summary of the process to generate a prediction for one future time step of depths and flow rates. Subsequent predictions are obtained by iteratively repeating this process. (<b>a</b>) shows the inputs: partial time series of runoff and water depths, and system information (topology, node elevation, pipe diameters, and lengths). These data are organized in windows and normalized before entering the artificial neural network. (<b>b</b>) shows the metamodel structure in three stages: Encoder, Processor, and Decoder. The Encoder is a set of two multilayer perceptrons, <math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mi mathvariant="normal">ϕ</mi> </mrow> </semantics></math>, that separately computes the embedding of nodes (pictured in pink) and pipes (pictured in green). These embeddings are fed to the graph layer which computes new node embeddings (pictured in gray). The output of this phase is then decoded by the Decoder, a set of two MLPs that transform the processed embeddings into raw predictions of the physical variables, i.e., depth (<math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <msup> <mrow> <mi mathvariant="normal">d</mi> </mrow> <mrow> <mo>∗</mo> </mrow> </msup> </mrow> </semantics></math>) and flow rate (<math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <msup> <mrow> <mi mathvariant="normal">q</mi> </mrow> <mrow> <mo>∗</mo> </mrow> </msup> </mrow> </semantics></math>). These quantities are marked with an asterisk to indicate they have not been post-processed. (<b>c</b>) shows the new predictions of depths and flow rates after being post-processed. Having these values, the process repeats to determine the entire time series. This diagram is adapted from [<a href="#B2-engproc-69-00137" class="html-bibr">2</a>] to illustrate the modification of the method.</p>
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<p>Performance of the model for emulating flow rates during a validation rainfall event. (<b>a</b>) shows the distribution of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) in the map of the storm water system. Each point represents a pipe in the map. (<b>b</b>) shows the original and emulated time series of flow rates for a pipe with the one of the highest RMSEs (<math display="inline"><semantics> <mrow> <mn>0.1</mn> <mo> </mo> <msup> <mrow> <mi mathvariant="normal">m</mi> </mrow> <mrow> <mn>3</mn> </mrow> </msup> <mo>/</mo> <mi mathvariant="normal">s</mi> </mrow> </semantics></math>), indicated in (<b>a</b>) with a cross.</p>
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21 pages, 4116 KiB  
Article
A Data-Driven Multi-Step Flood Inundation Forecast System
by Felix Schmid and Jorge Leandro
Forecasting 2024, 6(3), 761-781; https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast6030039 - 13 Sep 2024
Viewed by 259
Abstract
Inundation maps that show water depths that occur in the event of a flood are essential for protection. Especially information on timings is crucial. Creating a dynamic inundation map with depth data in temporal resolution is a major challenge and is not possible [...] Read more.
Inundation maps that show water depths that occur in the event of a flood are essential for protection. Especially information on timings is crucial. Creating a dynamic inundation map with depth data in temporal resolution is a major challenge and is not possible with physical models, as these are too slow for real-time predictions. To provide a dynamic inundation map in real-time, we developed a data-driven multi-step inundation forecast system for fluvial flood events. The forecast system is based on a convolutional neural network (CNN), feature-informed dense layers, and a recursive connection from the predicted inundation at timestep t as a new input for timestep t + 1. The forecast system takes a hydrograph as input, cuts it at desired timesteps (t), and outputs the respective inundation for each timestep, concluding in a dynamic inundation map with a temporal resolution (t). The prediction shows a Critical Success Index (CSI) of over 90%, an average Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.07, 0.12, and 0.15 for the next 6 h, 12 h, and 24 h, respectively, and an individual RMSE value below 0.3 m, for all test datasets when compared with the results from a physically based model. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Environmental Forecasting)
27 pages, 23197 KiB  
Article
An Early Warning System for Urban Fluvial Floods Based on Rainfall Depth–Duration Thresholds and a Predefined Library of Flood Event Scenarios: A Case Study of Palermo (Italy)
by Dario Pumo, Marco Avanti, Antonio Francipane and Leonardo V. Noto
Water 2024, 16(18), 2599; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16182599 - 13 Sep 2024
Viewed by 454
Abstract
Several cities are facing an increasing flood risk due to the coupled effect of climate change and urbanization. Non-structural protection strategies, such as Early Warning Systems (EWSs), have demonstrated significant potential in mitigating hydraulic risk and often become the primary option when the [...] Read more.
Several cities are facing an increasing flood risk due to the coupled effect of climate change and urbanization. Non-structural protection strategies, such as Early Warning Systems (EWSs), have demonstrated significant potential in mitigating hydraulic risk and often become the primary option when the implementation of structural measures is impeded by the complexities of urban environments. This study presents a new EWS designed specifically for fluvial floods in the city of Palermo (Italy), which is crossed by the Oreto River. The system is based on the preliminary definition of various Flood Event Scenarios (FESs) as a function of typical precursors, such as rainfall forecasts, and antecedent wetness and river flow conditions. Antecedent conditions are derived from real-time water stage observations at an upstream river section, while rainfall forecasts are provided by the Italian National Surveillance Meteorological Bulletins with a preannouncement time of up to 36 h. An innovative feature of the system is the use of rainfall Depth–Duration Thresholds to predict the expected hydrograph peak, significantly reducing warning issuing times. A specific FES, immediately accessible from a pre-built library, can be linked to any combination of precursors. Each FES predicts the timing and location of the first points of flooding; flood-prone areas and water depths; and specific hazard maps for elements typically exposed in cities, such as people, vehicles, and buildings. The EWS has been tested on a historical flood event, demonstrating satisfactory accuracy in reproducing the location, extent, and severity of the flood. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Urban Water Management)
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<p>Oreto River Basin. (<b>a</b>) Indications of the two contributing sub-basins (SB1 and SB2), the computational domain (red contour) for the EWS, the location of the six bridges crossing the river (from 1 to 6), the Palermo–SIAS rain gauge, the Oreto a Ponte Parco hydrometric station (OPP), and the Input Control Section (ICS) for the hydraulic modelling. Righthand boxes show the different domains considered to calculate the hazard maps for (<b>b</b>) people, (<b>c</b>) vehicles, and (<b>d</b>) buildings.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>) Flow Rating Curve (FRC) and (<b>b</b>) Flow Duration Curve (FDC<sub>2021</sub>) derived at the OPP. For the FDC, the discharge is reported in logarithmic form, and vertical grid distinguishes the four different streamflow conditions considered for the FESs generation, with the values of streamflow associated with each class (<span class="html-italic">Q<sub>init,FES</sub></span> = <span class="html-italic">Q<sub>LF</sub></span>, <span class="html-italic">Q<sub>LM</sub>, Q<sub>MH</sub></span>, and <span class="html-italic">Q<sub>HF</sub></span>) highlighted in red. The old version of the FDC (FDC<sub>1941</sub>) is also reported for comparison (black dashed curve).</p>
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<p>Computational hydraulic domain: maps of (<b>a</b>) elevation and (<b>b</b>) roughness. Locations of the bridges are also indicated, while their geometry is depicted in the insets.</p>
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<p>Schematic representation of a generic FES. Each FES is derived by propagating over the computational domain a standard design hydrograph with given peak flow (<span class="html-italic">Q<sub>peak,FES</sub></span>) and initial discharge (<span class="html-italic">Q<sub>init,FES</sub></span>) and deriving water levels (<span class="html-italic">h</span>) and flow velocity (<span class="html-italic">v</span>) at each node as well as critical flooding points location (<span class="html-italic">CP<sub>loc</sub></span>) and timing (<span class="html-italic">CP<sub>time</sub></span>). Each FES provides a report table for the critical points and spatial maps of water levels and hazard maps for people, vehicles, and buildings.</p>
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<p>Flowchart of the proposed Early Warning System [<a href="#B39-water-16-02599" class="html-bibr">39</a>].</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>) Depth–Duration–Frequency curves for the 5 considered return periods (i.e., 10, 25, 50, 100, 300, and 500 years); (<b>b</b>) Iso-concentration time curves for the sub-basins SB1 and SB2; (<b>c</b>) Normalized hydrographs for the 5 different return periods and derived standard UH at the ICS (red curve). For helping visualization, this last is reported on logarithmic axes.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>) Flood map for the most severe FES, i.e., the Q1000HF (<span class="html-italic">Q<sub>peak,FES</sub></span> = 1000 m<sup>3</sup>/s, <span class="html-italic">Q<sub>init,FES</sub></span> = <span class="html-italic">Q<sub>HF</sub></span>), with identification of the 34 occurring <span class="html-italic">CPs</span>. (<b>b</b>) flood map for the FES Q0300LF (<span class="html-italic">Q<sub>peak,FES</sub></span> = 300 m<sup>3</sup>/s, <span class="html-italic">Q<sub>init,FES</sub></span> = <span class="html-italic">Q<sub>LF</sub></span>), with identification of the 24 occurring <span class="html-italic">CPs</span> (these are identified by the same ID codes relative to the FES Q1000HF).</p>
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<p>Onset times of the <span class="html-italic">CPs</span> with respect to the rainfall onset time (<span class="html-italic">CP<sub>time</sub></span>) for FESs obtained with <span class="html-italic">Q<sub>init,FES</sub></span> = <span class="html-italic">Q<sub>HF</sub></span>. Each segment refers to a specific <span class="html-italic">CP</span>, whose location is reported in <a href="#water-16-02599-f007" class="html-fig">Figure 7</a>a, and reports the variation range of <span class="html-italic">CP<sub>time</sub></span> among the various FESs. The left limit of each segment denotes the minimum <span class="html-italic">CP<sub>time</sub></span>, which always occurs for the FES Q1000HF. On the right limit of each segment the maximum <span class="html-italic">CP<sub>time</sub></span> is reported, also indicating the corresponding <span class="html-italic">Q<sub>peak,FES</sub></span> (i.e., from Q0100 to Q0950).</p>
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<p>Flood Event Scenario FES1000HF—hazard maps for (<b>a</b>) people; (<b>b</b>) vehicles; (<b>c</b>) buildings. Inset boxes in <a href="#water-16-02599-f009" class="html-fig">Figure 9</a>b,c show a zoom for specific areas to help visualization, and they are not included as final products of the FESs.</p>
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<p>Flood Event Scenarios derived for <span class="html-italic">Q<sub>init,FES</sub></span> = <span class="html-italic">Q<sub>HF</sub></span>. Variation in the percentage coverage of the domain of each class for the (<b>a</b>) flood map and the hazard maps for (<b>b</b>) people, (<b>c</b>) vehicles, and (<b>d</b>) buildings as a function of the expected <span class="html-italic">Q<sub>peak,FES</sub></span>.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>) Flood map reconstructed by the SPC with the red inset plot showing the reconstruction of the actual flooded area from Google Map Satellite. Post-event pictures from the web portal of the online newspapers <span class="html-italic">Palermo Today</span> (<a href="http://www.palermotoday.it" target="_blank">www.palermotoday.it</a>, accessed on 9 November 2018), reported in figures (<b>b</b>,<b>c</b>), and <span class="html-italic">Giornale di Sicilia</span> (<a href="http://www.gds.it" target="_blank">www.gds.it</a>, accessed on 11 November 2018), reported in figures (<b>d</b>,<b>e</b>). Their localization in the inset of <a href="#water-16-02599-f011" class="html-fig">Figure 11</a>a is denoted by using boxes of different colours associated with the contour line of each picture.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>) Rainfall hyetograph (black bar, left y-axis) recorded at the Palermo–SIAS rain gauge and cumulative rainfall depth (purple dashed line, right y-axis) during the time window covering the forecasting horizons for NMB<sub>1</sub> and NMB<sub>2</sub>. (<b>b</b>) Temporal trace of water stages recorded at the OPP (dashed blue line, left y-axis) and corresponding hydrograph (red line, right y-axis) obtained by Equation (1), with indication of the initial discharge at the time of issuing of the two bulletins (black circles). Times of issuing and the forecasting horizons of each bulletin are highlighted in both graphs (in orange for NMB<sub>1</sub> and in green for NMB<sub>2</sub>).</p>
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<p>Family of DDT curves and DDF curves (black curves, providing the expected rainfall trajectory) selected by the EWS for (<b>a</b>) NMB<sub>1</sub> and (<b>b</b>) NMB<sub>2</sub>. For each plot, the coloured lines (red and orange curves) and the associated label indicate the iso-critical discharge DDTs and the corresponding parameter. From the combined use of the two types of curve, the EWS has estimated a <span class="html-italic">Q<sub>peak,DDT</sub></span> equal to 288 m<sup>3</sup>/s and 125 m<sup>3</sup>/s for NMB<sub>1</sub> and NMB<sub>2</sub>, respectively, given by the highest DDT crossed by the rainfall trajectory in each plot.</p>
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<p>Flood maps of the FESs Q0400HF (<b>a</b>) and Q0200HF (<b>b</b>), resulting from the application of the EWS based on the NMB<sub>1</sub> (bulletin of 2 November 2018) and NMB<sub>2</sub> (bulletin of 3 November 2018), respectively. A comparison of both maps with the actual flooded area (dashed magenta contour) in the district of <span class="html-italic">Fondo Picone</span> is reported in the insets.</p>
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17 pages, 13288 KiB  
Article
Multi-Scale Visualization Study of Water and Polymer Microsphere Flooding through Horizontal Wells in Low-Permeability Oil Reservoir
by Liang Cheng, Yang Xie, Jie Chen, Xiao Wang, Zhongming Luo and Guo Chen
Energies 2024, 17(18), 4597; https://doi.org/10.3390/en17184597 - 13 Sep 2024
Viewed by 244
Abstract
Our target USH reservoir in the D oilfield is characterized by “inverse rhythm” deposition with the noticeable features of “high porosity and low permeability”. The reservoir has been developed with waterflooding using horizontal wells. Due to the strong heterogeneity of the reservoir, water [...] Read more.
Our target USH reservoir in the D oilfield is characterized by “inverse rhythm” deposition with the noticeable features of “high porosity and low permeability”. The reservoir has been developed with waterflooding using horizontal wells. Due to the strong heterogeneity of the reservoir, water channeling is severe, and the water cut has reached 79%. Considering the high temperature and high salinity reservoir conditions, polymer microspheres (PMs) were selected to realize conformance control. In this study, characterization of the polymer microsphere suspension was achieved via morphology, size distribution, and viscosity measurement. Furthermore, a multi-scale visualization study of the reservoir development process, including waterflooding, polymer microsphere flooding, and subsequent waterflooding, was conducted using macro-scale coreflooding and calcite-etched micromodels. It was revealed that the polymer microspheres could swell in the high salinity brine (170,000 ppm) by 2.7 times if aged for 7 days, accompanied by a viscosity increase. This feature is beneficial for the injection at the wellbore while swelled to work as a profile control agent in the deep formation. The macro-scale coreflood with a 30 cm × 30 cm × 4.5 cm layer model with 108 electrodes installed enabled the oil distribution visualization from different perpendicular cross sections. In this way, the in situ conformance control ability of the polymer microsphere was revealed both qualitatively and quantitatively. Furthermore, building on the calcite-etched visible micro-model, the pore-scale variation of the residual oil when subjected to waterflooding, polymer microsphere waterflooding, and subsequent waterflooding was collected, which revealed the oil displacement efficiency increase by polymer microspheres directly. The pilot test in the field also proves the feasibility of conformance control by the polymer microspheres, i.e., more than 40,000 bbls of oil increase was observed in the produces, accompanied by an obvious water reduction. Full article
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<p>Illustration of the stratigraphic distribution and well-logging curves of the USH reservoir in D oilfield.</p>
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<p>Illustration of the horizontal well deployment in the USH reservoir of D oilfield.</p>
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<p>Artificial rock samples used in the macro-coreflooding tests: (<b>a</b>) picture of the real rock sample; (<b>b</b>) schematic of the layered structure of the rock sample and well placements.</p>
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<p>Top view (Pro. 1# and Pro. 2# are two producers; Inj. 1#, Inj. 2# and Inj. 3# are three injecteors.) (<b>a</b>), cross-sectional view of A-A’ (<b>b</b>) and B-B’ (<b>c</b>) of the artificial rock sample.</p>
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<p>Experimental setup of the macro-corefloods.</p>
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<p>Schematic of the calcite-etched micromodel.</p>
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<p>Setup of the displacement experiment.</p>
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<p>Microscopic morphology and size distribution of the polymer microsphere dispersion system after being aged for different times.</p>
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<p>SEM imaging of the 3D internal structure of the polymer microsphere.</p>
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<p>Apparent viscosity of the polymer microsphere dispersion system under different aging times.</p>
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<p>Oil saturation distribution variation on the A-A’ cross section in the process of macro-coreflooding.</p>
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<p>Oil saturation distribution variation on the B-B’ cross section in the process of macro-coreflooding.</p>
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<p>Oil saturation distribution variation on the four layers from top view in the process of macro-coreflooding.</p>
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<p>Oil recovery factors and water cuts response of two producers (<b>a</b>); and injection pressure response of three injections in the process of macro-coreflooding (<b>b</b>).</p>
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<p>Results of the micro-model displacement experiments.</p>
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<p>Microscopic residual oil morphology at the end of the water drive and PM drive stage.</p>
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20 pages, 3966 KiB  
Article
The Hydrologic Mitigation Effectiveness of Bioretention Basins in an Urban Area Prone to Flash Flooding
by Brian G. Laub, Eugene Von Bon, Lani May and Mel Garcia
Water 2024, 16(18), 2597; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16182597 - 13 Sep 2024
Viewed by 266
Abstract
The hydrologic performance and cost-effectiveness of green stormwater infrastructure (GSI) in climates with highly variable precipitation is an important subject in urban stormwater management. We measured the hydrologic effects of two bioretention basins in San Antonio, Texas, a growing city in a region [...] Read more.
The hydrologic performance and cost-effectiveness of green stormwater infrastructure (GSI) in climates with highly variable precipitation is an important subject in urban stormwater management. We measured the hydrologic effects of two bioretention basins in San Antonio, Texas, a growing city in a region prone to flash flooding. Pre-construction, inflow, and outflow hydrographs of the basins were compared to test whether the basins reduced peak flow magnitude and altered the metrics of flashiness, including rate of flow rise and fall. We determined the construction and annual maintenance cost of one basin and whether precipitation magnitude and antecedent moisture conditions altered hydrologic mitigation effectiveness. The basins reduced flashiness when comparing inflow to outflow and pre-construction to outflow hydrographs, including reducing peak flow magnitudes by >80% on average. Basin performance was not strongly affected by precipitation magnitude or antecedent conditions, though the range of precipitation magnitudes sampled was limited. Construction costs were higher than previously reported projects, but annual maintenance costs were similar and no higher than costs to maintain an equivalent landscaped area. Results indicate that bioretention basins effectively mitigate peak flow and flashiness, even in flash-flood-prone environments, which should benefit downstream ecosystems. The results provide a unique assessment of bioretention basin performance in flash-flood-prone environments and can inform the optimization of cost-effectiveness when implementing GSI at watershed scales in regions with current or future similar precipitation regimes. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Urban Water Management)
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<p>Map showing (<b>a</b>) the location of the Leon Creek watershed, San Antonio, and the Edwards Aquifer zones within the state of Texas, (<b>b</b>) the location of the central and west campus bioretention basins on the UTSA campus, (<b>c</b>) the UTSA campus and Leon Creek watershed along with the Edwards Aquifer zones, and (<b>d</b>) schematic diagram of the central campus basin showing the north and south basins divided by an earthen berm and connected by an overflow pipe from the north basin to the south basin. The red areas in (<b>c</b>) show urban developed land in and around the city of San Antonio. Also shown in (<b>d</b>) are major inflow points and the sump housing where water is pumped out of the basin as outflow. The contour lines in (<b>d</b>) are 0.3 m.</p>
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<p>Example showing how with- and without-basin hydrographs were constructed from changes in water depth over time in the bioretention basins. Panel (<b>a</b>) shows the recorded changes in depth (black line) in the south basin during a runoff event on 3 November 2021. An increase in depth represents an inflow to the basin (highlighted by orange arrows), which would have passed downstream as flow without the basin in place. The decrease in depth represents the draining of the basin (highlighted by blue arrow), which was pumped downstream out of the basin. Panel (<b>b</b>) shows the resulting flow rate that would have occurred downstream of the basin without the basin (orange line) and the actual flow rate with the basin in place (blue line).</p>
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<p>Box plots comparing flow metrics between pre-construction (Pre), with-basin, and without-basin hydrographs for the central campus basin. Boxes show 25th and 75th percentile (interquartile range) with the dark line indicating the median. Whiskers extend ±1.5 times the interquartile range, with values outside whiskers indicated as individual points.</p>
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<p>Box plots comparing with-basin and without-basin flow metrics for the west campus basin. Boxes show 25th and 75th percentile (interquartile range) with the dark line indicating the median. Whiskers extend ±1.5 times the interquartile range, with values outside whiskers indicated as individual points.</p>
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18 pages, 10223 KiB  
Article
Flood Modeling of the June 2023 Flooding of Léogâne City by the Overflow of the Rouyonne River in Haiti
by Rotchild Louis, Yves Zech, Adermus Joseph, Nyankona Gonomy and Sandra Soares-Frazao
Water 2024, 16(18), 2594; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16182594 - 13 Sep 2024
Viewed by 516
Abstract
Evaluating flood risk though numerical simulations in areas where hydrometric and bathymetric data are scarcely available is a challenge. This is, however, of paramount importance, particularly in urban areas, where huge losses of human life and extensive damage can occur. This paper focuses [...] Read more.
Evaluating flood risk though numerical simulations in areas where hydrometric and bathymetric data are scarcely available is a challenge. This is, however, of paramount importance, particularly in urban areas, where huge losses of human life and extensive damage can occur. This paper focuses on the 2–3 June 2023 event at Léogâne in Haiti, where the Rouyonne River partly flooded the city. Water depths in the river have been recorded since April 2022, and a few discharges were measured manually, but these were not sufficient to produce a reliable rating curve. Using a uniform-flow assumption combined with the Bayesian rating curve (BaRatin) method, it was possible to extrapolate the existing data to higher discharges. From there, a rainfall–runoff relation was developed for the site using a distributed hydrological model, which allowed the discharge of the June 2023 event to be determined, which was estimated as twice the maximum conveying capacity of the river in the measurement section. Bathymetric data were obtained using drone-based photogrammetry, and two-dimensional simulations were carried out to represent the flooded area and the associated water depths. By comparing the water depths of 21 measured high-water marks with the simulation results, we obtained a Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values of 0.890 and 0.882, respectively. This allows us to conclude that even when only scarce official data are available, it is possible to use field data acquired by low-cost methodologies to build a model that is sufficiently accurate and that can be used by flood managers and decision makers to assess flood risk and vulnerability in Haiti. Full article
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<p>Study area: (<b>a</b>) Study site location in Haiti; (<b>b</b>) Rouyonne river channel and its upper watershed; (<b>c</b>) Altitude distribution in the upper watershed.</p>
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<p>Study area: (<b>a</b>) Study site location in Haiti; (<b>b</b>) Rouyonne river channel and its upper watershed; (<b>c</b>) Altitude distribution in the upper watershed.</p>
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<p>Illustration of image acquisition: (<b>a</b>) Aerial image of the river during the dry season; (<b>b</b>) DJI drone equipped with a GoPro camera (sensor type: 1/2.3” CMOS; camera type: sport/action camera; equivalent focal length: 16.41 mm; lens type: wide angle; aperture: f/2.8).</p>
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<p>Illustration of the morphological changes in the Rouyonne river channel: (<b>a</b>) Cross-section 54—54 of the Rouyonne River; (<b>b</b>) Bathymetric data comparison between UAV photogrammetry DTM (2022) and the manual survey (2022); (<b>c</b>) Evolution of morphological changes between 2014 and 2022 in cross-section 54—54.</p>
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<p>Illustration of the damage caused by the 3 June 2023 event: (<b>a</b>) Buildings destroyed by the flood in the town of Léogâne; (<b>b</b>) Pressure sensor broken by flood at the measuring section; (<b>c</b>) High-water mark measurement; (<b>d</b>) Spatial distribution of high-water marks measured for the 2–3 June 2023 event.</p>
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<p>Illustration of the damage caused by the 3 June 2023 event: (<b>a</b>) Buildings destroyed by the flood in the town of Léogâne; (<b>b</b>) Pressure sensor broken by flood at the measuring section; (<b>c</b>) High-water mark measurement; (<b>d</b>) Spatial distribution of high-water marks measured for the 2–3 June 2023 event.</p>
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<p>Illustration of the unstructured mesh of the study area.</p>
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<p>Cross-section at the limnimetric station with the equivalent rectangle (discontinuous black line) used in the BaRatin method.</p>
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<p>Relationships between water depth and discharge at the measurement section: comparison of the Bayesian rating curve with uncertainties and the uniform-flow assumption.</p>
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<p>Hydrological modeling: (<b>a</b>) Calibration (August 2022); (<b>b</b>) Validation (September 2022).</p>
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<p>Hydrological modeling applied to the event of 2–3 June 2023.</p>
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<p>Illustration of the 2–3 June 2023 event simulation.</p>
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<p>Model evaluation: Comparison between the observed and modeled water depths.</p>
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<p>Identification of the overflow points on the Rouyonne river: (<b>a</b>) Right bank overtopping to downtown Léogâne; (<b>b</b>) Left bank overtopping where the probe was installed.</p>
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20 pages, 6422 KiB  
Article
Exploring the Potential of Soil and Water Conservation Measures for Climate Resilience in Burkina Faso
by Carine Naba, Hiroshi Ishidaira, Jun Magome and Kazuyoshi Souma
Sustainability 2024, 16(18), 7995; https://doi.org/10.3390/su16187995 - 12 Sep 2024
Viewed by 396
Abstract
Sahelian countries including Burkina Faso face multiple challenges related to climatic conditions. Setting up effective disaster management plans is essential for protecting livelihoods and promoting sustainable development. Soil and water conservation measures (SWCMs) are emerging as key components of such plans, particularly in [...] Read more.
Sahelian countries including Burkina Faso face multiple challenges related to climatic conditions. Setting up effective disaster management plans is essential for protecting livelihoods and promoting sustainable development. Soil and water conservation measures (SWCMs) are emerging as key components of such plans, particularly in Burkina Faso. However, there is an insufficiency of studies exploring their potential as green infrastructures in the Sahelian context and this research aims to contribute to filling this gap. We used national data, remote sensing, and GIS tools to assess SWCM adoption and the potential for climate resilience. Stone ribbons emerged as the most widely adopted SWCM, covering 2322.4 km2 especially in the northern regions, while filtering dikes were the least widely adopted, at 126.4 km2. Twenty years of NDVI analysis showed a notable vegetation increase in Yatenga (0.075), Oudalan (0.073), and provinces with a high prevalence of SWCM practices. There was also an apparent increase in SWCM percentages from 60% of land degradation. Stone ribbons could have led to a runoff reduction of 13.4% in Bam province, highlighting their effectiveness in climate resilience and flood risk mitigation. Overall, encouraging the adoption of SWCMs offers a sustainable approach to mitigating climate-related hazards and promoting resilience in Sahelian countries such as Burkina Faso. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sustainable Water Resources and Stormwater Management)
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<p>Common traditional SWCMs used in Burkina Faso. Source photograph (<b>a</b>): Fatoumata Diabate/OXFAM; Source photograph (<b>c</b>): Makan Sissoko/ESSOR; Source photographs (<b>b</b>,<b>d</b>–<b>f</b>): WOCAT [<a href="#B14-sustainability-16-07995" class="html-bibr">14</a>].</p>
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<p>Study area: (<b>a</b>) provinces of Burkina Faso; (<b>b</b>) climate zones Burkina following Köppen–Geiger classification [<a href="#B26-sustainability-16-07995" class="html-bibr">26</a>], isohyets (mm/year), and climatic regions of Burkina Faso.</p>
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<p>Estimation of water-holding capacity increase factor with zaï.</p>
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<p>Estimation of water-holding capacity increase factor with half-moons.</p>
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<p>Average areas (km<sup>2</sup>) under SWCM from 2012 to 2021: (<b>a</b>) stone rows; (<b>b</b>) half-moons; (<b>c</b>) zaï; (<b>d</b>) filtering dikes; and (<b>e</b>) grass strips.</p>
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<p>Correlogram illustrating the combinations among SWCM.</p>
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<p>Soil degradation map of Burkina Faso.</p>
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<p>Repartition of SWCMs in provinces.</p>
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<p>Population density per province in Burkina Faso.</p>
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<p>Precipitation change in comparison to NDVI change from 2002 to 2021.</p>
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31 pages, 15174 KiB  
Article
Flood Susceptibility Assessment for Improving the Resilience Capacity of Railway Infrastructure Networks
by Giada Varra, Renata Della Morte, Mario Tartaglia, Andrea Fiduccia, Alessandra Zammuto, Ivan Agostino, Colin A. Booth, Nevil Quinn, Jessica E. Lamond and Luca Cozzolino
Water 2024, 16(18), 2592; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16182592 - 12 Sep 2024
Viewed by 446
Abstract
Floods often cause significant damage to transportation infrastructure such as roads, railways, and bridges. This study identifies several topographic, environmental, and hydrological factors (slope, elevation, rainfall, land use and cover, distance from rivers, geology, topographic wetness index, and drainage density) influencing the safety [...] Read more.
Floods often cause significant damage to transportation infrastructure such as roads, railways, and bridges. This study identifies several topographic, environmental, and hydrological factors (slope, elevation, rainfall, land use and cover, distance from rivers, geology, topographic wetness index, and drainage density) influencing the safety of the railway infrastructure and uses multi-criteria analysis (MCA) alongside an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to produce flood susceptibility maps within a geographic information system (GIS). The proposed methodology was applied to the catchment area of a railway track in southern Italy that was heavily affected by a destructive flood that occurred in the autumn of 2015. Two susceptibility maps were obtained, one based on static geophysical factors and another including triggering rainfall (dynamic). The results showed that large portions of the railway line are in a very highly susceptible zone. The flood susceptibility maps were found to be in good agreement with the post-disaster flood-induced infrastructural damage recorded along the railway, whilst the official inundation maps from competent authorities fail to supply information about flooding occurring along secondary tributaries and from direct rainfall. The reliable identification of sites susceptible to floods and damage may provide railway and environmental authorities with useful information for preparing disaster management action plans, risk analysis, and targeted infrastructure maintenance/monitoring programs, improving the resilience capacity of the railway network. The proposed approach may offer railway authorities a cost-effective strategy for rapidly screening flood susceptibility at regional/national levels and could also be applied to other types of linear transport infrastructures. Full article
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<p>Study area in southern Italy with topographic elevations, drainage network, main settlements, and railway line.</p>
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<p>Photographic evidence of the aftermath and a map showing the position of the water-related infrastructure damage along the railway line: (<b>a</b>) obstruction of crossing structures (culvert/bridge), (<b>b</b>) clogging of drainage ditches by debris material, (<b>c</b>) instability/collapse of retaining walls—masonry damage, (<b>d</b>) failure of embankment caused by erosion, (<b>e</b>) overtopping of the line by water/mud from upstream. The photos are courtesy of Rete Ferroviaria Italiana (RFI).</p>
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<p>Flowchart of the flood susceptibility zonation framework.</p>
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<p>Thematic maps of the Flood-Influencing Factors in a reclassified scale from 1 (low susceptibility) to 5 (high susceptibility): (<b>a</b>) Elevation, (<b>b</b>) Slope, (<b>c</b>) Topographic Wetness Index, and (<b>d</b>) Distance to Streams.</p>
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<p>Thematic maps of the Flood-Influencing Factors in a reclassified scale from 1 (low susceptibility) to 5 (high susceptibility): (<b>a</b>) Drainage Density, (<b>b</b>) Geology, (<b>c</b>) Land Use Land Cover, and (<b>d</b>) cumulative two-day rainfall.</p>
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<p>Map illustrating the Flood Susceptibility Condition (<span class="html-italic">FSC</span>) (<b>a</b>) along with the upper (<span class="html-italic">FSC<sub>max</sub></span>) (<b>b</b>) and lower (<span class="html-italic">FSC<sub>min</sub></span>) values (<b>c</b>), obtained by accounting for the uncertainty in the factors’ weights.</p>
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<p>Map illustrating the Flood Susceptibility Assessment (<span class="html-italic">FSA</span>) for the 14th–15th October 2015 storm event (<b>a</b>) along with the upper (<span class="html-italic">FSA<sub>max</sub></span>) (<b>b</b>) and lower (<span class="html-italic">FSA<sub>min</sub></span>) values (<b>c</b>), obtained by accounting for the uncertainty in the factors’ weights.</p>
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<p>Absolute difference between the Flood Susceptibility Condition map (<span class="html-italic">FSC</span>) of <a href="#water-16-02592-f006" class="html-fig">Figure 6</a>a and the Flood Susceptibility Assessment map (<span class="html-italic">FSA</span>) of <a href="#water-16-02592-f007" class="html-fig">Figure 7</a>a for the study area.</p>
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<p>Percentage distribution of the susceptibility/influence levels (low, very low, medium, high, very high) for the eight Flood-Influencing Factors, concurring with the construction of the Flood Susceptibility Condition map (<span class="html-italic">FSC</span>) of <a href="#water-16-02592-f006" class="html-fig">Figure 6</a>a and the Flood Susceptibility Assessment map (<span class="html-italic">FSA</span>) of <a href="#water-16-02592-f007" class="html-fig">Figure 7</a>a, over different regions (<b>a</b>): (<b>b</b>) left and (<b>c</b>) right part of the floodplain, and (<b>d</b>) hillslope area located north of the floodplain.</p>
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<p>Flood susceptibility maps: (<b>a</b>,<b>b</b>) Flood Susceptibility Condition (<span class="html-italic">FSC</span>) map that excludes the triggering rainfall; (<b>c</b>,<b>d</b>) and Flood Susceptibility Assessment (<span class="html-italic">FSA</span>) map. Comparison with the distribution of flood-related damage and the official flood hazard map.</p>
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<p>Percentage distribution of influence/susceptibility levels (low, very low, medium, high, very high) of four Flood-Influencing Factors, (<b>a</b>) rainfall, (<b>b</b>) slope, (<b>c</b>) distance to streams, (<b>d</b>) TWI, across 22 flood-related damage sites.</p>
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<p>Percentage distribution of influence/susceptibility levels (low, very low, medium, high, very high) of four Flood-Influencing Factors, (<b>a</b>) elevation, (<b>b</b>) drainage density, (<b>c</b>) geology, (<b>d</b>) LULC, across 22 flood-related damage sites.</p>
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19 pages, 11199 KiB  
Article
Predicting Flood Inundation after a Dike Breach Using a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Network
by Leon S. Besseling, Anouk Bomers and Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher
Hydrology 2024, 11(9), 152; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11090152 - 12 Sep 2024
Viewed by 486
Abstract
Hydrodynamic models are often used to obtain insights into potential dike breaches, because dike breaches can have severe consequences. However, their high computational cost makes them unsuitable for real-time flood forecasting. Machine learning models are a promising alternative, as they offer reasonable accuracy [...] Read more.
Hydrodynamic models are often used to obtain insights into potential dike breaches, because dike breaches can have severe consequences. However, their high computational cost makes them unsuitable for real-time flood forecasting. Machine learning models are a promising alternative, as they offer reasonable accuracy at a significant reduction in computation time. In this study, we explore the effectiveness of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network in fast flood modelling for a dike breach in the Netherlands, using training data from a 1D–2D hydrodynamic model. The LSTM uses the outflow hydrograph of the dike breach as input and produces water depths on all grid cells in the hinterland for all time steps as output. The results show that the LSTM accurately reflects the behaviour of overland flow: from fast rising and high water depths near the breach to slowly rising and lower water depths further away. The water depth prediction is very accurate (MAE = 0.045 m, RMSE = 0.13 m), and the inundation extent closely matches that of the hydrodynamic model throughout the flood event (Critical Success Index = 94%). We conclude that machine learning techniques are suitable for fast modelling of the complex dynamics of dike breach floods. Full article
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<p>The structure of an LSTM neural network, showing three data streams and four internal neural nodes functioning as the forget, input and output gates, here displayed with an input dimension of 3 and output dimension of 2. Reproduced from Karim [<a href="#B34-hydrology-11-00152" class="html-bibr">34</a>].</p>
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<p>The study area of the Rhine river entering the Netherlands and bifurcating, and its representation in the 1D–2D hydrodynamic model of Bomers [<a href="#B27-hydrology-11-00152" class="html-bibr">27</a>].</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>) Examples of river discharge waves at the boundary that lead to a breach downstream. The breach at the IJssel breach location occurs when the discharge in the Rhine reaches around 16,000 m<sup>3</sup>/s, marked with x on the three shown discharge waves. (<b>b</b>) The overland flow patterns computed by the hydrodynamic model of Bomers [<a href="#B27-hydrology-11-00152" class="html-bibr">27</a>] during the black river discharge scenario of panel A at various times after the breach. Starting from the breach (at the red X) and spreading towards the north-east, the largest inundation extent is reached about 48 h after the breach.</p>
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<p>The variability of the data set from Bomers [<a href="#B27-hydrology-11-00152" class="html-bibr">27</a>]. (<b>a</b>) The input breach outflow hydrograph scenarios used for training and testing, with the hydrographs leading to the maximum and minimum inundation extents shown in blue and red, respectively. <a href="#hydrology-11-00152-f003" class="html-fig">Figure 3</a>a shows the corresponding river discharge at the upstream boundary in blue and red. (<b>b</b>) Map of the maximum and minimum inundation extents of the flood scenarios, and the difference in water depth between them per grid cell. Breach location indicated with a red X. (<b>c</b>) The water depths at locations A, B and C of panel B for all scenarios, with the max and min inundation scenarios indicated in blue and red, respectively.</p>
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<p>Water depth predictions of LSTM model compared to hydrodynamic model for four time steps in the simulation of 1 of the 15 test flood events. Breach indicated with a red X.</p>
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<p>Water depth prediction error of two LSTM models compared to the hydrodynamic model for a test data set flood. (<b>a</b>–<b>c</b>) During the flood propagation phase (shown with the first time step after the breach), the end-of-flood LSTM model is less accurate than the LSTM model for flood propagation compared to the hydrodynamic model. (<b>d</b>–<b>f</b>) After 5 days, the end-of-flood LSTM model is more accurate than the flood propagation LSTM model compared to the hydrodynamic model. Breach indicated with a red X.</p>
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<p>Results for the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for the test flood events. (<b>b</b>) A map of spatial variation in total MAE per grid cell, averaging all time steps and all 15 test flood events. Breach indicated with a red X. (<b>a</b>) Outflow hydrographs of two specific test flood events, one with quickly diminishing breach outflow and one with longer continuation of the flood event. (<b>c</b>) The water depths in grid cells A–D of panel B for the short and long test flood events show that the LSTM is able to capture the difference in flood behaviour.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>) A scatter plot of LSTM prediction against hydrodynamic model water depths for all grid cells and time steps during the 15 test flood events. Most of the 48 million data points are along the 1:1 solid line of perfect prediction, while only a few are scattered around. Some points concentrate along a less steep dashed line, which corresponds to the first time step delay between the LSTM and hydrodynamic model results. (<b>b</b>,<b>c</b>) The temporal variation of CSI and MAE/RMSE, averaged over all flooded grid cells for different wet–dry thresholds.</p>
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12 pages, 11016 KiB  
Article
Inundation: A Gaming App for a Sustainable Approach to Sea Level Rise
by Stefano Solarino, Gemma Musacchio, Elena Eva, Marco Anzidei and Maddalena De Lucia
Sustainability 2024, 16(18), 7987; https://doi.org/10.3390/su16187987 - 12 Sep 2024
Viewed by 314
Abstract
Over the past few decades, communication has evolved significantly, driven by new technologies and digital connections, with the Internet and mobile phones transforming traditional communication methods. This shift has also impacted disaster risk awareness-raising, requiring messages to adapt to modern digital platforms. This [...] Read more.
Over the past few decades, communication has evolved significantly, driven by new technologies and digital connections, with the Internet and mobile phones transforming traditional communication methods. This shift has also impacted disaster risk awareness-raising, requiring messages to adapt to modern digital platforms. This article describes an effort to engage younger generations with the issue of sea level rise, critical yet often overlooked despite its significant impact on global coastal areas, through the serious digital game “Inundation”. Presented for the first time, the game offers an engaging experience where players protect territories from coastal flooding while understanding rising seas’ causes, effects, and impacts. Feedback from student beta testers highlighted the game’s effectiveness in conveying scientific concepts and increasing awareness about this pressing issue. The game’s innovative design, particularly its visual representation of sea level rise at a pace more relatable to human perception, fills a gap in environmental education by making complex topics accessible and engaging. While evaluating the impact of such tools is challenging, initial feedback suggests that “Inundation” has significant potential to foster disaster preparedness and proactive safeguarding actions. Full article
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<p>Snapshot of “Inundation”. The map displays the city of Venice in 2030; the right panel shows the three game locations: Basento (Italy), Chalastra (Greece), and the Ebro Delta (Spain). The top horizontal bar shows the storyline time flow. To progress the game, the player must press the spin button in the lower right corner.</p>
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<p>Four activities are randomly selected by spinning the wheel: (<b>a</b>) video, (<b>b</b>) question, (<b>c</b>) mini-game, (<b>d</b>) bonus.</p>
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<p>An example of (<b>a</b>) a multiple-choice question and answers and (<b>b</b>) a short explanation of the answer itself.</p>
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<p>Snapshots of the three mini-games: (<b>a</b>) escaping from the rising sea level; (<b>b</b>) the mayor of a coastal city making decisions to preserve the coast over time; (<b>c</b>) a family business facing its carbon footprint affecting SLR.</p>
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<p>End of game snapshot.</p>
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