Search Results (988)

Accurate water quality prediction is the basis for good water environment management and sustainable use of water resources. As an important time series forecasting model, the Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA) plays a crucial role in environmental management and sustainability research. This study addresses the factors that affect the ARMA model’s forecast accuracy and goodness of fit. The research results show that the sample size used for model parameters estimation is the main influencing factor for the goodness of fit of an ARMA model, and the prediction time is the main factor affecting the prediction error of the model. Constructing a stable and reliable ARMA model requires a certain number of samples for the estimation of model parameters. However, using an excessive number of samples will not further improve the ARMA model’s goodness of fit but rather increase the workload and difficulty of data collection. The ARMA model is not suitable for long-term forecasting because the prediction error of ARMA models increases with the increase of prediction time, and when the prediction time exceeds a certain limit, the fitted values of an ARMA model will almost no longer change with the time, which means the model has lost its significance of prediction. For time series with periodic components, introducing periodic adjustment factors into the ARMA model can reduce the prediction error. These findings enable environmental managers and researchers to apply the ARMA model more rationally, hence developing more precise pollution control and sustainable development plans. Full article

A unique Li–Na metasomatic rock from Iwagi Islet in Southwest (SW) Japan is an episyenite that contains new Li-rich minerals, including sugilite, katayamalite, murakamiite, and ferro-ferri-holmquistite. We present petrographical, mineralogical, and geochronological data for the protoliths and episyenite. We classified the metasomatic rocks based on the mineral assemblages, from the protolith biotite granite to albitized granite, quartz albitite, hedenbergite albitite, aegirine albitite, sugilite albitite, and katayamalite albitite. The protolith of hedenbergite albitites may have been metasomatic granite that has been subjected to calcic skarnization. Albitites are formed related to fractures and shear zones that focused the fluid flow and metasomatism. Extensive albitization and formation of abundant Li minerals requires involvement of external Li-Na-Cl-rich fluids, which might be related to deep high-temperature Arima-like brines derived from dehydration of the subducted oceanic slab. Formation of the albitites began with quartz dissolution and vug formation, and record interface-coupled dissolution–reprecipitation processes in an open system. The ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age of 91.5 ± 0.3 Ma determined for the katayamalite is slightly younger than the protolith zircon U–Pb age of 93.5 ± 1.7 Ma (Turonian), reasonably explaining the timing of Li–Na metasomatism after the petrogenesis of host granites. Full article

This study focuses on the problem of the supply prediction of logistics transportation vehicles in road transportation. Aiming at the problem that the supply data of logistics transportation has the characteristics of long sequential data, numerous influencing factors, and a significant spatiotemporal evolution law, which leads to the lack of accuracy of supply predictions, this paper proposes a supply prediction method for logistics transportation based on an improved Informer model. Firstly, multidimensional feature engineering is applied to historical supply data to enhance the interpretability of labeled data. Secondly, a spatiotemporal convolutional network is designed to extract the spatiotemporal features of the supply volume. Lastly, a long short-term memory (LSTM) model is introduced to capture the supply volume’s long- and short-term dependencies, and the predicted value is derived through a multilayer perceptron. The experimental results show that mean square error (MSE) is reduced by 73.8%, 79.36%, 82.24%, 78.58%, 77.02%, 53.96%, and 40.38%, and mean absolute error (MAE) is reduced by 52%, 59.5%, 60.36%, 57.52%, 53.9%, 31.21%, and 36.58%, respectively, when compared to the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), support vector regression (SVR), LSTM, gated recurrent units (GRUs), a back propagation neural network (BPNN), and Informer and InformerStack single models; compared with the ARIMA + BPNN, ARIMA + GRU and ARIMA + LSTM integrated models, the MSE is reduced by 74.88%, 71.56%, and 74.07%, respectively, and the MAE is reduced by 51.31%, 50%, and 52.02%; it effectively reduces the supply prediction error and improves the prediction accuracy. Full article

Assessing carbon emission reduction potential is vital for achieving carbon peak and neutrality in the maritime sector. In this study, we proposed a universal framework for assessing the effectiveness of different measures on carbon emission reduction from ships, including port and ship electrification (PSE), ship speed optimization (SSO), and clean fuel substitution (CFS). Firstly, the projection method of future ship traffic flows and activity levels relies on a neural network, and the ARIMA model was proposed. Then, the potential of various emission reduction measures was detailed and analyzed under different intensity scenarios. The proposed model was applied to Wuhan port, the results indicate that CFS is the most effective for long-term decarbonization, potentially achieving a carbon peak by 2025 under an aggressive scenario. For the short to medium term, PSE is favored due to technical maturity. SSO primarily delays emissions growth, making it a suitable auxiliary measure. These findings guide emission reduction strategies for ports, fostering green and sustainable shipping development. Full article

The wide use of telecommunications, computers and the internet, especially over the last four decades, has formed a new economic phenomenon, the “Digital Economy”. As a matter of facts, the development of digitalization has raised questions about its contribution to official economic indicators. This research examines the evolution of the information and communication industry (ICI) and its contribution to the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of six European entities. Time series and auto-ARIMA models are employed to process the data. Moreover, this study forecasts the development of the ICI in the future. The results demonstrate a clear stable growth in the variable under examination over time, showing an increasingly greater contribution of the ICI to the national GDP in most cases with the exception of Greece, which has a high provisional risk. Full article

The manufacturing industry is skill-intensive and plays a pivotal role in South Africa’s economy, reflecting the nation’s progress and development. The advent of technology has initiated a transformative era within the manufacturing sector. Workforce skills are at the heart of ensuring the sustained growth of the industry. This study delves into the skill-related aspects of the occupational landscape of the South African manufacturing sector, with a particular focus on two important manufacturing sectors: the food and beverage manufacturing (FoodBev) sector and the chemical manufacturing (CHIETA) sector. Leveraging the forecasting prowess of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), this paper outlines a sectorial occupational forecasting modeling exercise to reveal which job roles are poised for expansion and which are expected to decline. The approach predicted future skills’ demand 80% accuracy for 473 out of 713 (66%) occupations for FoodBev and 474 out of 522 (91%) for CHIETA. These insights are invaluable for industry stakeholders and educational institutions, providing guidance to support the sector’s growth in an era marked by technological advancement. Full article

This study investigates the effectiveness of Transformer-based models for retail demand forecasting. We evaluated vanilla Transformer, Informer, Autoformer, PatchTST, and temporal fusion Transformer (TFT) against traditional baselines like AutoARIMA and AutoETS. Model performance was assessed using mean absolute scaled error (MASE) and weighted quantile loss (WQL). The M5 competition dataset, comprising 30,490 time series from 10 stores, served as the evaluation benchmark. The results demonstrate that Transformer-based models significantly outperform traditional baselines, with Transformer, Informer, and TFT leading the performance metrics. These models achieved MASE improvements of 26% to 29% and WQL reductions of up to 34% compared to the seasonal Naïve method, particularly excelling in short-term forecasts. While Autoformer and PatchTST also surpassed traditional methods, their performance was slightly lower, indicating the potential for further tuning. Additionally, this study highlights a trade-off between model complexity and computational efficiency, with Transformer models, though computationally intensive, offering superior forecasting accuracy compared to the significantly slower traditional models like AutoARIMA. These findings underscore the potential of Transformer-based approaches for enhancing retail demand forecasting, provided the computational demands are managed effectively. Full article

This study proposes a novel approach that utilizes Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Support Vector Machines (SVMs) to tackle a critical challenge: detecting defects in wrapped film products. With their delicate and reflective film wound around a core material, these products present formidable hurdles for conventional visual inspection systems. The complex task of identifying defects, such as unwound or protruding areas, remains a daunting endeavor. Despite the power of commercial image recognition systems, they struggle to capture anomalies within wrap film products. Our research methodology achieved a 90% defect detection accuracy, establishing its practical significance compared with existing methods. We introduce a pioneering methodology centered on covariance vectors extracted from latent variables, a product of a Variational Autoencoder (VAE). These covariance vectors serve as feature vectors for training a specialized One-Class SVM (OCSVM), a key component of our approach. Unlike conventional practices, our OCSVM does not require images containing defects for training; it uses defect-free images, thus circumventing the challenge of acquiring sufficient defect samples. We compare our methodology against feature vectors derived from the fully connected layers of established CNN models, AlexNet and VGG19, offering a comprehensive benchmarking perspective. Our research represents a significant advancement in defect detection technology. By harnessing the latent variable covariance vectors from a VAE encoder, our approach provides a unique solution to the challenges faced by commercial image recognition systems. These advancements in our study have the potential to revolutionize quality control mechanisms within manufacturing industries, offering a brighter future for product integrity and customer satisfaction. Full article

In order to improve the stability and reliability of the solar DC centrifugal pump real-time operation and prevent the centrifugal pump failure caused by the unexpected shutdown of the system, a set of accurate and efficient centrifugal pump condition monitoring systems was built. A time series-based strategy for predicting the remaining using life (RUL) of centrifugal pumps was proposed. The time series of head and efficiency of centrifugal pumps at specific flow conditions were measured, the corresponding failure thresholds were set, and different differential autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were developed to predict the remaining useful life of the pumps. The results show that the maximum prediction error of the head ARIMA model established under the design conditions of the pump was 0.040%, and the head time series reaches the failure threshold of 8 m at the 653rd data point; the maximum prediction error of the efficiency ARIMA model was 0.042%, and the efficiency time series reaches the failure threshold of 16% at the 672nd data point. According to the proposed prediction strategy, the RUL of the centrifugal pump under the design condition was 53 h. The head time series of the pump at high flow conditions reaches a failure threshold of 5 m at the 640th data point; the efficiency time series will reach a failure threshold of 12.5% at the 578th data point, and the RUL of the centrifugal pump at high flow conditions was 78 h. The established ARIMA model has a high prediction accuracy and can effectively predict the RUL of centrifugal pumps. Full article

Droughts have negative impacts on agricultural productivity and economic growth. Effective monitoring and accurate forecasting of drought occurrences and trends are crucial for minimizing drought losses and mitigating their spatial and temporal effects. In this study, trend dynamics in monthly total rainfall time series measured at Cape Town International Airport were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall (MK) test, Modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test and innovative trend analysis (ITA). Additionally, we utilized a hybrid prediction method that combined the model with the complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) technique, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and the long short-term memory (LSTM) network (i.e., CEEMDAN-ARIMA-LSTM) to forecast SPI values of 6-, 9-, and 12-months using rainfall data between 1995 and 2020 from Cape Town International Airport meteorological rainfall stations. In terms of trend analysis of the monthly total rainfall, the MK and MMK tests detected a significant decreasing trend with negative z-scores of −3.7541 and −4.0773, respectively. The ITA also indicated a significant downward trend of total monthly rainfall, especially for values between 10 and 110 mm/month. The SPI forecasting results show that the hybrid model (CEEMDAN-ARIMA-LSTM) had the highest prediction accuracy of the models at all SPI timescales. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values of the CEEMDAN-ARIMA-LSTM hybrid model are 0.121, 0.044, and 0.042 for SPI-6, SPI-9, and SPI-12, respectively. The directional symmetry for this hybrid model is 0.950, 0.917, and 0.950, for SPI-6, SPI-9, and SPI-12, respectively. This indicates that this is the most suitable model for forecasting long-term drought conditions in Cape Town. Additionally, models that use a decomposition step and those that are built by combining independent models seem to produce improved SPI prediction accuracy. Full article

The volatile and non-linear nature of stock market data, particularly in the post-pandemic era, poses significant challenges for accurate financial forecasting. To address these challenges, this research develops advanced deep learning and machine learning algorithms to predict financial trends, quantify risks, and forecast stock prices, focusing on the technology sector. Our study seeks to answer the following question: “Which deep learning and supervised machine learning algorithms are the most accurate and efficient in predicting economic trends and stock market prices, and under what conditions do they perform best?” We focus on two advanced recurrent neural network (RNN) models, long short-term memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), to evaluate their efficiency in predicting technology industry stock prices. Additionally, we integrate statistical methods such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Facebook Prophet and machine learning algorithms like Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) to enhance the robustness of our predictions. Unlike classical statistical algorithms, LSTM and GRU models can identify and retain important data sequences, enabling more accurate predictions. Our experimental results show that the GRU model outperforms the LSTM model in terms of prediction accuracy and training time across multiple metrics such as RMSE and MAE. This study offers crucial insights into the predictive capabilities of deep learning models and advanced machine learning techniques for financial forecasting, highlighting the potential of GRU and XGBoost for more accurate and efficient stock price prediction in the technology sector. Full article

The water–energy–food (WEF) nexus constitutes a pivotal aspect of regional ecological protection and high-quality development. The exertion of multiple WEF-related policies would engender both synergies and trade-offs within the WEF nexus. However, a quantified framework that integrates the impact of multiple WEF-related policies with conventional WEF nexus assessments and simulations is currently lacking. This study quantified the WEF nexus in the Yellow River basin (YRB) of China under the influence of multiple policies, calculated the current and future WEF scores under different policy combination scenarios using the improved entropy weight method, the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and the linear optimization method. The results revealed the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, WEF overall scores and subsystem scores were substantially increased with spatial heterogeneity. (2) Scenario analysis indicated that policy implementation would generally accelerate WEF score improvements in each city, yet embracing all policies simultaneously was not optimal for each city. (3) The spatial heterogeneity in policy impacts was also found in the YRB, with higher trade-offs in the upper reaches of cities, and higher synergies in the middle and lower reaches of cities. To attain high-quality development within the YRB, the related policies’ implementation should consider the regional disparities and enhance the optimization of resource allocation across the regions. Full article

As electric vehicles (EVs) are becoming more common and the need for sustainable energy practices is growing, better management of EV charging station loads is a necessity. The simple act of folding renewable power from solar or wind in an EV charging system presents a huge opportunity to make them even greener as well as improve grid resiliency. This paper proposes an innovative EV charging station energy consumption forecasting approach by incorporating integrated renewable energy data. The optimization is achieved through the application of SARLDNet, which enhances predictive accuracy and reduces forecast errors, thereby allowing for more efficient energy allocation and load management in EV charging stations. The technique leverages comprehensive solar and wind energy statistics alongside detailed EV charging station utilization data collected over 3.5 years from various locations across California. To ensure data integrity, missing data were meticulously addressed, and data quality was enhanced. The Boruta approach was employed for feature selection, identifying critical predictors, and improving the dataset through feature engineering to elucidate energy consumption trends. Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) signal decomposition extracts intrinsic mode functions, revealing temporal patterns and significantly boosting forecasting accuracy. This study introduces a novel stem-auxiliary-reduction-LSTM-dense network (SARLDNet) architecture tailored for robust regression analysis. This architecture combines regularization, dense output layers, LSTM-based temporal context learning, dimensionality reduction, and early feature extraction to mitigate overfitting. The performance of SARLDNet is benchmarked against established models including LSTM, XGBoost, and ARIMA, demonstrating superior accuracy with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 7.2%, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 22.3 kWh, and R² Score of 0.87. This validation of SARLDNet’s potential for real-world applications, with its enhanced predictive accuracy and reduced error rates across various EV charging stations, is a reason for optimism in the field of renewable energy and EV infrastructure planning. This study also emphasizes the role of cloud infrastructure in enabling real-time forecasting and decision support. By facilitating scalable and efficient data processing, the insights generated support informed energy management and infrastructure planning decisions under dynamic conditions, empowering the audience to adopt sustainable energy practices. Full article

This work conducts a rigorous examination of the economic influence of tourism in Saudi Arabia, with a particular focus on predicting tourist spending patterns and classifying spending behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic period and its implications for sustainable development. Utilizing authentic datasets obtained from the Saudi Tourism Authority for the years 2015 to 2021, the research employs a variety of machine learning (ML) algorithms, including Decision Trees, Random Forests, K-Neighbors Classifiers, Gaussian Naive Bayes, and Support Vector Classifiers, all meticulously fine-tuned to optimize model performance. Additionally, the ARIMA model is expertly adjusted to forecast the economic landscape of tourism from 2022 to 2030, providing a robust predictive framework for future trends. The research framework is comprehensive, encompassing diligent data collection and purification, exploratory data analysis (EDA), and extensive calibration of ML algorithms through hyperparameter tuning. This thorough process tailors the predictive models to the unique dynamics of Saudi Arabia’s tourism industry, resulting in robust forecasts and insights. The findings reveal the growth trajectory of the tourism sector, highlighted by nearly 965,073 thousand tourist visits and 7,335,538 thousand overnights, with an aggregate tourist expenditure of SAR 2,246,491 million. These figures, coupled with an average expenditure of SAR 89,443 per trip and SAR 9198 per night, form a solid statistical basis for the employed predictive models. Furthermore, this research expands on how ML and AI innovations contribute to sustainable tourism practices, addressing key aspects such as resource management, economic resilience, and environmental stewardship. By integrating predictive analytics and AI-driven operational efficiencies, the study provides strategic insights for future planning and decision-making, aiming to support stakeholders in developing resilient and sustainable strategies for the tourism sector. This approach not only enhances the capacity for navigating economic complexities in a post-pandemic context, but also reinforces Saudi Arabia’s position as a premier tourism destination, with a strong emphasis on sustainability leading into 2030 and beyond. Full article

Hi-C sequencing is a DNA-based next-generation sequencing method that preserves the 3D genome conformation and has shown promise in detecting genomic rearrangements in translational research studies. To evaluate Hi-C as a potential clinical diagnostic platform, analytical concordance with routine laboratory testing was assessed using primary pediatric leukemia and sarcoma specimens. Archived viable and non-viable frozen leukemic cells and formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tumor specimens were analyzed. Pediatric acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and alveolar rhabdomyosarcoma (A-RMS) specimens with known genomic rearrangements were subjected to Hi-C to assess analytical concordance. Subsequently, a discovery cohort consisting of AML and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) cases without known genomic rearrangements based on prior clinical diagnostic testing was evaluated to determine whether Hi-C could detect rearrangements. Using a standard sequencing depth of 50 million raw read-pairs per sample, or approximately 5X raw genomic coverage, we observed 100% concordance between Hi-C and previous clinical cytogenetic and molecular testing. In the discovery cohort, a clinically relevant gene fusion was detected in 45% of leukemia cases (5/11). This study provides an institutional proof of principle evaluation of Hi-C sequencing to medical diagnostic testing as it identified several clinically relevant rearrangements, including those that were missed by current clinical testing workflows. Full article