The Impact of Energy Transition on the Geopolitical Importance of Oil-Exporting Countries
<p>Strategic oil transfer straits [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B15-world-03-00033">15</xref>].</p> "> Figure 2
<p>IRENA’s prediction of fossil fuel and renewable energy demand by 2050 [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B16-world-03-00033">16</xref>].</p> "> Figure 3
<p>Global horizontal irradiation [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B18-world-03-00033">18</xref>]. Note: Map obtained from the Global Solar Atlas 2.0, a free, web-based application is developed and operated by the company Solargis s.r.o. on behalf of the World Bank Group, utilizing Solargis data, with funding provided by the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP). For additional information: <uri>https://globalsolaratlas.info</uri> (accessed on 3 August 2022).</p> "> Figure 4
<p>Wind energy potential worldwide (mean wind speed) [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B19-world-03-00033">19</xref>]. Note: Map obtained from the Global Wind Atlas 3.0, a free, web-based application developed, owned and operated by the Technical University of Denmark (DTU). The Global Wind Atlas 3.0 is released in partnership with the World Bank Group, utilizing data provided by Vortex, using funding provided by the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP). For additional information: <uri>https://globalwindatlas.info</uri> (accessed on 3 August 2022).</p> "> Figure 5
<p>Renewable energy patents in fossil fuel-importing and exporting countries [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B15-world-03-00033">15</xref>].</p> "> Figure 6
<p>IRENA’s forecast of electrification rate of different sectors by 2050 (Electrification Scenario) [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B20-world-03-00033">20</xref>].</p> "> Figure 7
<p>Percentage of regional trade in fossil fuels to GDP [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B15-world-03-00033">15</xref>].</p> "> Figure 8
<p>Changes in global oil production by country in 2006–2018 (data were collected from [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B22-world-03-00033">22</xref>]).</p> "> Figure 9
<p>Change in global oil demand by country, 2006–2018 (data were collected from [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B22-world-03-00033">22</xref>]).</p> "> Figure 10
<p>Diversification of global oil supply (data were collected from [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B22-world-03-00033">22</xref>]).</p> ">
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Persian Gulf Security
3. Impact of Technological Change and Energy Transition on Energy Geopolitics Worldwide
3.1. Predicting Fossil Fuel Demand in the 21st Century
3.2. Solar Energy Potential Worldwide
3.3. Wind Energy Potential Worldwide
3.4. Countries’ Dependence on Oil Imports—Patents in the Field of Renewable Energy
3.5. Development of Electric Transportation
3.6. Influence of Climate Change Policies
3.7. Quick Return on Investment in Shale Oil Extraction
4. Changes in the Trade of Fossil Fuels and the Raw Materials Required for Renewable Energy Worldwide
4.1. Percentage of Regional Trade in Fossil Fuels to GDP
4.2. Changes in Global Oil Production by Country (2006–2018)
4.3. Changes in Global Oil Demand by Country (2006–2018)
4.4. Diversifying Global Oil Supply (1968–2018)
4.5. Raw Materials Needed for Clean Energy
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
- Le Billon, P.; El Khatib, F. From free oil to “freedom oil”: Terrorism, war and US geopolitics in the Persian Gulf. Geopolitics 2004, 9, 109–137. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Delucchi, M.A.; Murphy, J.J. US military expenditures to protect the use of Persian Gulf oil for motor vehicles. Energy Policy 2008, 36, 2253–2264. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Vakulchuk, R.; Overland, I.; Scholten, D. Renewable energy and geopolitics: A review. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2020, 122, 109547. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Scholten, D.; Bazilian, M.; Overland, I.; Westphal, K. The geopolitics of renewables: New board, new game. Energy Policy 2020, 138, 111059. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Scholten, D.; Bosman, R. The geopolitics of renewables; exploring the political implications of renewable energy systems. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2016, 103, 273–283. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Klare, M.T. Carter Doctrine. In The Encyclopedia of War; Wiley: Hoboken, NJ, USA, 2011. [Google Scholar]
- Fürtig, H. Conflict and cooperation in the Persian Gulf: The interregional order and US policy. Middle East J. 2007, 61, 627–640. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Hughes, L.; Long, A. Is there an oil weapon?: Security implications of changes in the structure of the international oil market. Int. Secur. 2015, 39, 152–189. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Solarin, S.A. The effects of shale oil production, capital and labour on economic growth in the United States: A maximum likelihood analysis of the resource curse hypothesis. Resour. Policy 2020, 68, 101799. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Randall, T.; Warren, H. Peak Oil is Suddenly Uppon Us. 2020. Available online: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-peak-oil-era-is-suddenly-upon-us/ (accessed on 2 December 2020).
- Dogan, E.; Altinoz, B.; Madaleno, M.; Taskin, D. The impact of renewable energy consumption to economic growth: A replication and extension of Inglesi-Lotz (2016). Energy Econ. 2020, 90, 104866. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Lane, B.; Shaffer, B.; Samuelsen, S. A comparison of alternative vehicle fueling infrastructure scenarios. Appl. Energy 2020, 259, 114128. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Çakır Melek, N.; Plante, M.; Yücel, M.K. Resource booms and the macroeconomy: The case of U.S. shale oil. Rev. Econ. Dyn. 2020, 42, 307–332. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Garlick, J.; Havlová, R. China’s “Belt and Road” Economic Diplomacy in the Persian Gulf: Strategic Hedging amidst Saudi–Iranian Regional Rivalry. J. Curr. Chin. Aff. 2020, 49, 82–105. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- IRENA. A New World: The Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation; IRENA: Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, 2019. [Google Scholar]
- IRENA. Global Energy Transformation: A Roadmap to 2050; IRENA: Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, 2018. [Google Scholar]
- Church, C.; Crawford, A. Green Conflict Minerals: The Fuels of Conflict in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy; IISD: Winnipeg, MB, Canada, 2018. [Google Scholar]
- Global Solar Atlas. Global Horizontal Irradiation. 2022. Available online: https://worldbank-atlas.s3.amazonaws.com/download/World/World_GHI_mid-size-map_160x95mm-300dpi_v20191015.png?AWSAccessKeyId=ASIAS2HACIWTCBP2WM5Z&Expires=1659505564&Signature=X1qDk4QcRPw3LrPG3REiL%2BlYQGU%3D&x-amz-security-token=IQoJb3JpZ2luX2VjEC4aCWV1LXd (accessed on 3 August 2022).
- Global Wind Atlas. Mean Wind Speed. 2022. Available online: https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/globalwindatlas3/HR_posters/ws_World.pdf (accessed on 3 August 2022).
- IRENA. Smart Electrification with Renewables: Driving the Transformation of Energy Services; IRENA: Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, 2022. [Google Scholar]
- Balke, N.S.; Brown, S.P.A. Oil supply shocks and the U.S. economy: An estimated DSGE model. Energy Policy 2018, 116, 357–372. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- BP. BP Statistical Review of World Energy; BP p.l.c.: London, UK, 2021. [Google Scholar]
- Mukhtarov, S.; Mikayilov, J.I.; Humbatova, S.; Muradov, V. Do high oil prices obstruct the transition to renewable energy consumption? Sustainbility 2020, 12, 4689. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Månberger, A.; Johansson, B. The geopolitics of metals and metalloids used for the renewable energy transition. Energy Strateg. Rev. 2019, 26, 100394. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Solar Energy Technologies | Wind Energy Technologies | Electrical Vehicles/Energy Storage | Major Reserve Holders | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Cobalt | ✓ | ✓ | Congo, Australia, Cuba, Philippines | |
Copper | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | Chile, Australia, Peru, Mexico |
Lithium | ✓ | Chile, China, Australia, Argentina | ||
Manganese | ✓ | ✓ | South Africa, Ukraine, Brazil | |
Nickel | ✓ | ✓ | Australia, Brazil, Russia, Cuba | |
Rare Earth Elements | ✓ | ✓ | China, Brazil, Vietnam, Russia | |
Selenium | ✓ | China, Russia, Peru, USA | ||
Silicon | ✓ | ✓ | Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Russia, South Africa | |
Silver | ✓ | Peru, Australia, Poland, Russia | ||
Tellurium | ✓ | China, Peru, USA, Canada |
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. |
© 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Share and Cite
Salimi, M.; Amidpour, M. The Impact of Energy Transition on the Geopolitical Importance of Oil-Exporting Countries. World 2022, 3, 607-618. https://doi.org/10.3390/world3030033
Salimi M, Amidpour M. The Impact of Energy Transition on the Geopolitical Importance of Oil-Exporting Countries. World. 2022; 3(3):607-618. https://doi.org/10.3390/world3030033
Chicago/Turabian StyleSalimi, Mohsen, and Majid Amidpour. 2022. "The Impact of Energy Transition on the Geopolitical Importance of Oil-Exporting Countries" World 3, no. 3: 607-618. https://doi.org/10.3390/world3030033