Temperature and Snow-Mediated Moisture Controls of Summer Photosynthetic Activity in Northern Terrestrial Ecosystems between 1982 and 2011
">
<p>Temporal variability in percentages of summer dry and wet areas in the northern latitudes (>45°N) between 1950 and 2009 based on the scPDSI computed with (red) and without (blue) interannual changes in potential evapotranspiration (PET). (<b>a</b>) dry area (summer scPDSI ≤ <span class="html-italic">−</span>2); (<b>b</b>) wet area (summer scPDSI ≥ 2). Also shown are the mean summer temperature anomalies for the region (gray dotted line) and the long-term mean of the percentage area series based on actual PET (red dashed line).</p> ">
<p>Comparison by region and continent between summer scPDSI averages with (red) and without (blue) interannual changes in potential evapotranspiration (PET). Mean summer temperature anomalies relative to the period 1961–1990 (dotted line) are shown for each biome. The red crosses in each panel indicate values of the average scPDSI series with actual PET within the bottom 20th percentile, which can be thought as regional summer droughts. Note that the severity of most of these drought events occurring during the warming period over the last two decades has been intensified by increasing evapotranspiration demand. The vertical dotted lines denote the years 1988 or 1997.</p> ">
<p>Correlation maps between summer NDVI and summer temperature, water supply and soil moisture variability since 1982. (<b>a</b>) Summer air temperature; (<b>b</b>) Summer precipitation; (<b>c</b>) Summer scPDSI; (<b>d</b>) Summer satellite microwave surface soil moisture (MW-SMO). All correlations are based on linearly detrended data and the stippling indicates statistically significant (<span class="html-italic">p</span> < 0.1) values.</p> ">
<p>Correlation maps between summer NDVI and spring (March–May) temperature, snow water supply and soil moisture variability since 1982. (<b>a</b>) Spring air temperature; (<b>b</b>) Maximum Snow Water Equivalent (SWE); (<b>c</b>) Spring scPDSI. All correlations are based on linearly detrended data and the stippling indicates statistically significant (<span class="html-italic">p</span> < 0.1) values.</p> ">
<p>Geography of moisture and temperature controls on summer NDVI at northern latitudes during the last 30 years and relationship with major land cover types. (<b>a</b>) Bivariate correlation map between detrended summer (June–August) NDVI and detrended variations in spring-summer (March–August) scPDSI and summer temperature during the period 1982–2009. Light greens indicate a strong moisture limitation (<span class="html-italic">i.e.</span>, strong positive correlation with precipitation and negative correlation with temperature), whilst purple shades indicate a dominant temperature limitation (<span class="html-italic">i.e.</span>, strong positive correlation with temperature and weak correlation with precipitation). The stippling indicates grid boxes where either correlations with temperature or scPDSI are statistically significant (<span class="html-italic">p</span> < 0.1); (<b>b</b>) IGBP land cover classification for the study domain. The black polygons in the maps denote the extent of the boreal forests as defined in this study. Also shown is the present position of the latitudinal treeline (purple line).</p> ">
<p>Fraction of interannual summer NDVI variance explained by spring (March–May) and summer water supply, soil moisture and temperature during the period 1982–2009. The maps show the <span class="html-italic">R</span><sup>2</sup> for a stepwise multiple linear regression model predicting summer NDVI at each grid box based on: (<b>a</b>) water supply (<span class="html-italic">x</span><sub>1</sub> = peak SWE, <span class="html-italic">x</span><sub>2</sub> = summer precipitation); (<b>b</b>) soil moisture (<span class="html-italic">x</span><sub>1</sub> = spring scPDSI, <span class="html-italic">x</span><sub>2</sub> = summer scPDSI); (<b>c</b>) temperature (<span class="html-italic">x</span><sub>1</sub> = spring temperature, <span class="html-italic">x</span><sub>2</sub> = summer temperature); and (<b>d</b>) soil moisture and temperature (<span class="html-italic">x</span><sub>1</sub> = spring scPDSI, <span class="html-italic">x</span><sub>2</sub> = summer scPDSI, <span class="html-italic">x</span><sub>3</sub> = spring temperature, <span class="html-italic">x</span><sub>4</sub> = summer temperature). All the variables were linearly detrended prior to analysis and only predictors significant at the 90% confidence level were retained in the regression models. Only positive associations between summer NDVI and variables representing water supply and soil moisture were considered. The stippling in c indicates grid boxes where NDVI is inversely associated with temperature. Gray shading denotes non-vegetated areas or areas where climate data were not available.</p> ">
<p>Maps of additional variance (<span class="html-italic">R</span><sup>2</sup>) explained by the univariate dynamic Kalman filter regression model between NDVI and potential climate drivers compared with a standard least squares linear regression model. <span class="html-italic">R</span><sup>2</sup> gain for summer NDVI regressed onto: (<b>a</b>) spring and summer temperature; (<b>b</b>) spring and summer water supply; and (<b>c</b>) spring and summer soil moisture (scPDSI). A 10-year high-pass filter was applied to the data prior to analysis. <span class="html-italic">R</span><sup>2</sup> values are shown for grid points where the dynamic regression model was selected over the standard fixed model based on the minimum Akaike Information Criteria (AIC). The rectangles show two regions for which time-dependent associations are illustrated in <a href="#f8-remotesensing-06-01390" class="html-fig">Figure 8</a>.</p> ">
<p>Illustration of the time-dependent association between interannual variability in summer NDVI and summer temperature in the regions indicated by the rectangles in <a href="#f7-remotesensing-06-01390" class="html-fig">Figure 7a</a>. (<b>a</b>) Comparison of spatially averaged time series for the region in northern Canada (top) and the corresponding Kalman filter regression coefficients and pointwise confidence intervals over the period 1982–2011 (bottom). Where any of the confidence limits includes zero, the regression weights are not considered statistically significant at that point in time. The monthly number of station temperature records in the region included in the CRU TS 3.20 dataset is also shown (bottom). The Aqua-MODIS NDVI average for the same region is shown as a dotted line for comparison. The overall correlation between NDVI3g and temperature is displayed along with its significance (*: <span class="html-italic">p</span> < 0.05); (<b>b</b>) Same as (a) but for a region in Siberia.</p> ">
<p>Linear trends in summer NDVI and dominant climate drivers since 1982. (<b>a</b>) Trends in spring and summer temperature between 1982 and 2011; (<b>b</b>) Trends in maximum SWE and summer scPDSI over the periods 1982–2011 and 1982–2009, respectively; (<b>c</b>) Statistically significant (<span class="html-italic">p</span> < 0.1) trends in summer NDVI between 1982 and 2011. The colored stippling indicates regions where spring-summer moisture (purple) and temperature (blue) variability significantly influence interannual summer NDVI anomalies as shown in <a href="#f6-remotesensing-06-01390" class="html-fig">Figure 6b,c</a>. The black thick line in North America denotes the southern edge of the continuous permafrost region [<a href="#b61-remotesensing-06-01390" class="html-bibr">61</a>].</p> ">
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data and Methods
2.1. Northern Biomes
2.2. Quantifying Changes in Summer Drought and the Influence of Evapotranspiration Demand
2.3. Vegetation Photosynthetic Activity
2.4. Influence of Snow, Moisture and Temperature Variability on Summer NDVI
3. Results
3.1. Summer Moisture Variability since 1950 and the Influence of Evapotranspiration Demand
3.2. Moisture and Temperature Controls on Interannual Summer NDVI Variability
3.2.1. Correlations
3.2.2. Stepwise Regression
3.2.3. Kalman Filter Regression
3.3. Trends in NDVI and Climate Constraints
4. Discussion
4.1. Sensitivity of High-Latitude Drought to Surface Warming
4.2. Spatially Heterogeneous Controls of Interannual Variability in Summer Photosynthetic Activity
4.3. Drivers of Vegetation Greening and Browning Trends
5. Summary and Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
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Appendix
Dataset | Resolution | Time Span | Reference |
---|---|---|---|
Vegetation | |||
GIMMS NDVI3g | 0.08° × 0.08°, 15-day | 1982–2011 | Pinzon and Tucker [45] |
Aqua MODIS NDVI (MYD13C2) | 0.05° × 0.05°, 16-day | 2002–2011 | Huete et al. [53] |
Temperature | |||
CRUTS 3.20 mean air temperature | 0.5° × 0.5°, monthly | 1901–2011 | Harris et al. [48] |
Precipitation | |||
GPCC precipitation version 6 | 0.5° × 0.5°, monthly | 1901–2010 | Schneider et al. [50] |
Globsnow SWE version 1.3 | 25 × 25 km, monthly | 1980–2011 | Takala et al. [44] |
Soil moisture | |||
Satellite microwave soil moisture (MW–SMO) | 0.25° × 0.25°, daily | 1979–2010 | Liu et al. [42] |
Self-calibrating PDSI (scPDSI) | 0.5° × 0.5°, monthly | 1901–2009 | van der Schrier et al. [43] |
GLDAS–2 Noah 10-cm soil moisture | 1° × 1°, monthly | 1948–2007 | Rui [51] |
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Barichivich, J.; Briffa, K.R.; Myneni, R.; Schrier, G.V.d.; Dorigo, W.; Tucker, C.J.; Osborn, T.J.; Melvin, T.M. Temperature and Snow-Mediated Moisture Controls of Summer Photosynthetic Activity in Northern Terrestrial Ecosystems between 1982 and 2011. Remote Sens. 2014, 6, 1390-1431. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs6021390
Barichivich J, Briffa KR, Myneni R, Schrier GVd, Dorigo W, Tucker CJ, Osborn TJ, Melvin TM. Temperature and Snow-Mediated Moisture Controls of Summer Photosynthetic Activity in Northern Terrestrial Ecosystems between 1982 and 2011. Remote Sensing. 2014; 6(2):1390-1431. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs6021390
Chicago/Turabian StyleBarichivich, Jonathan, Keith R. Briffa, Ranga Myneni, Gerard Van der Schrier, Wouter Dorigo, Compton J. Tucker, Timothy J. Osborn, and Thomas M. Melvin. 2014. "Temperature and Snow-Mediated Moisture Controls of Summer Photosynthetic Activity in Northern Terrestrial Ecosystems between 1982 and 2011" Remote Sensing 6, no. 2: 1390-1431. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs6021390