Analyzing the Spatiotemporal Uncertainty in Urbanization Predictions
<p>Location and images of the cities of Jiaxing and Lishui in the Zhejiang Province in China.</p> "> Figure 2
<p>Yearly predicted urbanization by the SLEUTH CA and ML models for Jiaxing.</p> "> Figure 3
<p>Yearly predicted urbanization by the SLEUTH CA and ML models for Lishui.</p> "> Figure 4
<p>Yearly binary urban footprint predictions and spatial disagreements between the SLEUTH CA and ML models for Jiaxing.</p> "> Figure 5
<p>Yearly binary urban footprint predictions and spatial disagreements between the SLEUTH CA and ML models for Lishui.</p> "> Figure 6
<p>New urban areas in 2040 relative to 2015 predicted by the SLEUTH CA and ML models for Jiaxing.</p> "> Figure 7
<p>New urban areas in 2040 relative to 2015 predicted by the SLEUTH CA and ML models for Lishui.</p> "> Figure 8
<p>Histogram of the time difference in predicting urbanization between the two models for Jiaxing.</p> "> Figure 9
<p>Histogram of the time difference in predicting urbanization between the two models for Lishui.</p> "> Figure 10
<p>Histogram of the absolute value of the time difference in predicting urbanization between the two models for Jiaxing.</p> "> Figure 11
<p>Histogram of the absolute value of the time difference in predicting urbanization between the two models for Lishui.</p> "> Figure 12
<p>Instantaneous urban agreement ratio in temporally cumulative urbanization relative to 2015 from both models over time for Jiaxing.</p> "> Figure 13
<p>Instantaneous urban agreement ratio in temporally cumulative urbanization relative to 2015 from both models over time for Lishui.</p> "> Figure 14
<p>Spatial comparison between urbanization predictions of both models using the ZNCC and SAD metrics over time for Jiaxing.</p> "> Figure 15
<p>Spatial comparison between urbanization predictions of both models using the ZNCC and SAD metrics over time for Lishui.</p> "> Figure A1
<p>Diagnostic graphs of the geographic area of Jiaxing. (<b>Left</b>) total urban population. (<b>Center</b>) total urban area. (<b>Right</b>) urban density.</p> "> Figure A2
<p>Diagnostic graphs of the geographic area of Lishui. (<b>Left</b>) total urban population. (<b>Center</b>) total urban area. (<b>Right</b>) urban density.</p> "> Figure A3
<p>Estimated probability density function of a population threshold after which a non-urban pixel becomes urban in Jiaxing.</p> "> Figure A4
<p>Estimated probability density function of a population threshold after which a non-urban pixel becomes urban in Lishui.</p> "> Figure A5
<p>Selected population threshold after which a non-urban pixel becomes urban for Jiaxing.</p> "> Figure A6
<p>Selected population threshold after which a non-urban pixel becomes urban for Lishui.</p> "> Figure A7
<p>Framework performance in the geographic areas of interest. From left to right, the columns correspond to: (1) population distribution error (i.e., real value minus predicted value); (2) histogram of the population distribution error; (3) binary urban footprint error (i.e., real value minus predicted value); (4) histogram of the binary urban footprint error. POP = predicted population distributions; BUF = binary urban footprints; ZNCC = zero-mean normalized cross-correlation; SAD = sum of absolute differences; SSD = sum of squared differences.</p> "> Figure A7 Cont.
<p>Framework performance in the geographic areas of interest. From left to right, the columns correspond to: (1) population distribution error (i.e., real value minus predicted value); (2) histogram of the population distribution error; (3) binary urban footprint error (i.e., real value minus predicted value); (4) histogram of the binary urban footprint error. POP = predicted population distributions; BUF = binary urban footprints; ZNCC = zero-mean normalized cross-correlation; SAD = sum of absolute differences; SSD = sum of squared differences.</p> ">
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Input Data for Urban Growth Modeling
2.2. Sleuth CA Urban Growth Model
2.3. ML-Based Urban Growth Framework
2.4. Uncertainty Analysis of Urban Growth
- The yearly urbanization from 2015 to 2040, where 2015 is the last historical year, and the data from 2016 to 2040 corresponds to predictions.
- An instantaneous spatial difference between the models for each decade, i.e.,: 2020, 2030, and 2040.
- The cumulative spatial agreement and disagreement of predicted urban areas from 2016 to 2040 removing the common urban areas that already existed in 2015 to ease the visual inspection.
- A histogram with the “signed” differences in predicted urbanization times between the models to reveal if one of the models tends to predict urbanization earlier than the other.
- A histogram with the “unsigned” differences in predicted urbanization times between the models to understand how long does it take them to reach an agreement within the simulation horizon.
- A time series showing the evolution of the spatial agreement of the urban predictions of both models over time excluding the existing urban areas of 2015. In this case, we propose an agreement index S through Equations (2) and (3), where the sum occurs over all pixels, is the reference year (which in our case is equal to 2015 because it is the last historical year), the sub-index refers to the predictions from the SLEUTH CA model, while corresponds to the predictions from the ML urban growth framework, and is an acronym for the binary urban footprint. In our convention, a value of one in BUF indicates an urban area, whereas a value of zero indicates a non-urban area. The proposed agreement index can be seen as a special variant of the intersection over union (IoU) that blocks de-urbanization effects and prevents over estimating the spatial agreement, as it is relative to the last known and common urbanization state for both models. Notice that when de-urbanization is prohibited from the forecasts of both models, Equation (3) reduces to Equation (4). Also notice that S varies from zero to one as the two predicted binary urban footprints move away from a total spatial disagreement to a perfect spatial agreement.
- A time series of two frequently used indices in the literature. The first index is known as the zero-mean normalized cross-correlation (ZNCC), see Equations (5) and (6), where is the expected-value operator computed as the arithmetic mean across all the spatial coordinates. The ZNCC can change from −1 to 1, and the closer it gets to 1, the better the spatial agreement.The second index is known as the sum of absolute differences (SAD), and we computed it using Equation (7). The SAD is greater than or equal to zero, and the closer to zero the better the spatial agreement.Notice that both indices assess the “instantaneous” level of spatial agreement between the urbanization predictions of both models over time, as they are computed directly over the yearly predictions, i.e.,: without discarding de-urbanization effects nor the urban areas that existed in 2015.
3. Results
3.1. Sleuth CA
3.2. ML-Based Urban Growth Framework
3.3. Uncertainty Analysis of Urban Growth
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
GHSL | Global human settlement layer |
BUF | Binary urban footprint |
POP | Population distribution |
LULCC | Land-uses and land-cover changes |
DEM | Digital elevation map |
SAD | Sum of absolute differences |
SSD | Sum of square differences |
MSE | Mean squared error |
RMSE | Root mean square error |
FP | False positive |
ZNCC | Zero-mean normalized cross correlation |
IoU | Intersection over union |
KDE | Kernel density estimation |
Probability density function | |
CA | Cellular automaton |
ML | Machine learning |
Appendix A. Auxiliary Tables for SLEUTH CA Model Calibration
Stage | Monte Carlo Iteration | Diffusion | Breed | Spread | Slope | Road Gravity |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lishui: size of each image layer 704 rows × 518 columns | ||||||
Coarse | 5 | [0, 100, 25] | [0, 100, 25] | [0, 100, 25] | [0, 100, 25] | [0, 100, 25] |
Fine | 8 | [25, 100, 15] | [1, 100, 10] | [13, 38, 5] | [75, 100, 5] | [50, 100, 10] |
Final | 10 | [25, 100, 5] | [41, 61, 2] | [11, 15, 1] | [75, 100, 2] | [50, 100, 5] |
Derive coeff | 150 | [25, 25, 1] | [53, 53, 1] | [13, 13, 1] | [77, 77, 1] | [95, 95, 1] |
Predict | 200 | 32 | 67 | 17 | 68 | 96 |
Jiaxing: size of each image layer 451 rows × 442 columns | ||||||
Coarse | 5 | [0, 100, 25] | [0, 100, 25] | [0, 100, 25] | [0, 100, 25] | [0, 100, 25] |
Fine | 8 | [88, 100, 4] | [13, 38, 5] | [13, 38, 5] | [25, 100, 15] | [25, 100, 15] |
Final | 10 | [92, 100, 1] | [13, 38, 2] | [18, 28, 2] | [85, 100, 3] | [25, 100, 5] |
Derive coeff | 150 | [98, 98, 1] | [15, 15, 1] | [26, 26, 1] | [85, 85, 1] | [65, 65, 1] |
Predict | 200 | 100 | 15 | 27 | 1 | 74 |
Lishui | Jiaxing | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OSM | Diff | Brd | Sprd | Slp | RG | OSM | Diff | Brd | Sprd | Slp | RG |
Coarse calibration, runs: 3125, time: 1 h 18 m | Coarse calibration, runs: 3125, time: 1 h 31 m | ||||||||||
0.593 | 25 | 1 | 25 | 75 | 50 | 0.71 | 100 | 25 | 25 | 100 | 25 |
0.581 | 25 | 100 | 25 | 100 | 100 | 0.711 | 100 | 25 | 25 | 100 | 50 |
0.577 | 100 | 50 | 25 | 100 | 75 | 0.639 | 100 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 100 |
Fine calibration, runs: 12,960, time: 7 h 37 m | Fine calibration, runs: 5184, time: 3 h 22 m | ||||||||||
0.751 | 25 | 41 | 13 | 75 | 100 | 0.844 | 100 | 13 | 28 | 85 | 25 |
0.748 | 25 | 61 | 13 | 80 | 90 | 0.829 | 100 | 13 | 28 | 100 | 70 |
0.741 | 100 | 51 | 13 | 100 | 50 | 0.824 | 92 | 38 | 18 | 85 | 100 |
Final calibration, runs: 125,840, time: 4 d 11 m | Final calibration, runs: 67,392, time: 2 d 9 h 52 m | ||||||||||
0.764 | 25 | 53 | 13 | 77 | 95 | 0.841 | 98 | 15 | 26 | 85 | 65 |
0.760 | 40 | 51 | 13 | 85 | 60 | 0.838 | 100 | 13 | 28 | 85 | 25 |
0.755 | 25 | 55 | 14 | 79 | 70 | 0.834 | 100 | 13 | 28 | 88 | 35 |
Appendix B. Additional Figures for the Ml-Based Urban Growth Framework
Appendix C. Land Use Recoding for Jiaxing and Lishui
- Urban.
- Agricultural.
- Rangeland.
- Forest Land.
- Water.
- Wetland.
- Barren Land.
- Tundra. This category was not available in Jiaxing nor Lishui.
- Perennial Snow or Ice. This category was not available in Jiaxing nor Lishui.
Old Parent Class | Old Class | Pixel Value | New Class | Pixel Value |
---|---|---|---|---|
Grassland | Grass | 23 | Rangeland | 3 |
Herbaceous green space | 24 | Rangeland | 3 | |
Wetlands | Herbaceous wetlands | 33 | Wetland | 6 |
Lake | 34 | Water | 5 | |
Reservoir/pit | 35 | Water | 5 | |
River | 36 | Water | 5 | |
Canal | 37 | Water | 5 | |
Arable land | Paddy field | 41 | Agriculture | 2 |
Dry land | 42 | Barren land | 7 | |
Artificial Surface | Residential | 51 | Urban | 1 |
Industrial | 52 | Urban | 1 | |
Transportation | 53 | Urban | 1 | |
Mining farm | 54 | Urban | 1 | |
Other | Bare rock | 65 | Barren land | 7 |
Bare soil | 66 | Rangeland | 3 | |
Woodland | Evergreen broad-leaved forest | 101 | Forest land | 4 |
Deciduous broad-leaved forest | 102 | Forest land | 4 | |
Evergreen coniferous forest | 103 | Forest land | 4 | |
Deciduous coniferous forest | 104 | Forest land | 4 | |
Coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest | 105 | Forest land | 4 | |
Evergreen broad-leaved shrub forest | 106 | Forest land | 4 | |
Deciduous broad-leaved forest | 107 | Forest land | 4 | |
Evergreen coniferous forest | 108 | Forest land | 4 | |
Arbor | 109 | Rangeland | 3 | |
Bush field | 110 | Rangeland | 3 | |
Arbor green space | 111 | Rangeland | 3 | |
Shrubland | 112 | Rangeland | 3 |
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Characteristics | SLEUTH CA | ML Framework |
---|---|---|
Does it expect the input variables in raster format? | Yes | Yes |
Does it encode human intuition or human rules? | Yes | No |
Does it require manual tuning or calibration? | Yes | No |
Is it model driven or data driven? | Model (and data) driven | Data driven |
Can it include additional independent variables with ease? | Yes with additional rules | Yes |
What does the output depend on? | Output depends only on previous state(s) | Output depends on previous state(s) and inputs |
Does it support future deterministic urban interventions? | Not in the standard implementation | Yes |
Does it use population distribution as the main urban-growth driver? | No. Require manual input | Yes |
Does the prediction change every time the model is run? | Yes | No |
What is the key performance indicator of model fitness? | Shape index that measures the spatial fit between the model’s growth | For population distribution: SAD, SSD, RMSE, Pearson’s correlation coefficient. For binary urban footprint: FP rate, error rate, ZNCC, accuracy, F score, and the IoU, which is also known as the Jaccard index |
Does it require expert knowledge to calibrate or train the model? | Yes | No |
Does the model estimate get better with more training data? | Yes or no. Depending on the time and space dimension of data | Yes |
Is it widely used in the literature? | Yes | Not yet, it is very recent |
Variable Name | Data Source | Digital Format | Original Resolution | Temporal Availability | Used by SLEUTH CA | Used by ML Framework |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Binary urban footprint | Obtained from [30] | Raster | 30 m × 30 m | 1990–2015 | Yes | Yes |
Land use | Obtained from IGSNRR [31] through LULCC classifications | Raster | 100 m × 100 m | 1990, 2000, 2010 | Yes (Recoded using Anderson Level I classification—see Appendix B) | Yes (residential and industrial uses) |
Terrain slope | Derived from DEM in SRTM [32] | Raster | 90 m × 90 m | 2015 | Yes | Yes |
Hillshade | Derived from DEM in SRTM [32] | Raster | 90 m × 90 m | 2015 | Yes | No |
Water bodies | Obtained from IGSNRR [31] through LULCC classifications | Raster | 100 m × 100 m | 1990, 2000, 2010 | Yes | Yes |
Roads | OSM [33] | Vector | - | 2018–2019 | Yes | No |
Potential of Roads | Derived from OSM [33] through Equation (1) | Raster | 100 m × 100 m | 2018–2019 | No | Yes |
Population distribution | GHSL pop [34] | Raster | 250 m × 250 m | 1990, 2000, 2015 | No | Yes |
Maximum population capacity | Derived from population distribution and binary urban footprint | Raster | 100 m × 100 m | 2015 | No | Yes |
Official population projections | China Statistical Yearbooks [28,29] | Tabular | Administrative units | 1978–2018 for Jiaxing. 1991–2018 for Lishui | No | Yes |
Prediction Coefficient | Value for Jiaxing | Value for Lishui |
---|---|---|
Diffusion | 100 | 32 |
Breed | 15 | 67 |
Spread | 27 | 17 |
Slope | 1 | 68 |
Road Gravity | 74 | 96 |
Task | Time for Jiaxing | Time for Lishui |
---|---|---|
Pre-processing | 6.31 min | 11.74 min |
Training | 98.29 min | 176.15 min |
Model selection | 6.60 min | 7.20 min |
Test | 4.77 min | 5.77 min |
Simulation | 58.79 min | 62.46 min |
Total | 174.76 min | 263.32 min |
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Gómez, J.A.; Guan, C.; Tripathy, P.; Duque, J.C.; Passos, S.; Keith, M.; Liu, J. Analyzing the Spatiotemporal Uncertainty in Urbanization Predictions. Remote Sens. 2021, 13, 512. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13030512
Gómez JA, Guan C, Tripathy P, Duque JC, Passos S, Keith M, Liu J. Analyzing the Spatiotemporal Uncertainty in Urbanization Predictions. Remote Sensing. 2021; 13(3):512. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13030512
Chicago/Turabian StyleGómez, Jairo Alejandro, ChengHe Guan, Pratyush Tripathy, Juan Carlos Duque, Santiago Passos, Michael Keith, and Jialin Liu. 2021. "Analyzing the Spatiotemporal Uncertainty in Urbanization Predictions" Remote Sensing 13, no. 3: 512. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13030512