Plug-in hybrids: the end has begun
A stricter utility factor leads to an increase in the reported CO₂ emissions of plug-in hybrids. This makes them less attractive.
Plug-in hybrids are currently very popular in some markets. In Germany, they are particularly interesting for commercial users due to tax benefits.
(Image: VW)
- Christoph M. Schwarzer
Plug-in hybrid cars unite two worlds: On the one hand, this type of drive can run on externally charged electricity. When the charge level of the traction battery falls below a certain level, it continues to run on a combustion engine. At least that's the theory. In reality, PHEVs (short for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) are by no means as idealized as the paper form suggests. Two worlds can combine not only the best, but also the worst. The legislators in Brussels are aware of this: From 2025, the CO₂ emissions of PHEVs will be assessed more strictly. The likely result is that PHEVs will only be a marginal phenomenon in 2030.
Things are different today. Take BMW, for example: the X1 compact SUV can be ordered with a petrol or diesel engine, as a PHEV or as an electric car (BEV for Battery Electric Vehicle) iX1. According to the Federal Motor Transport Authority, 2909 X1s were newly registered in Germany in May. Of these, 440 were PHEVs (15 percent) and 1015 BEVs (35 percent). Plug-in hybrids are therefore a relevant factor, even if the purchase support in Germany has been over since January 2023.
Test of the BMW X1 with different drive systems
BMW iX1 eDrive20 im Test: Management von Erwartungen
BMW X1 xDrive30e im Test: Plug-in-Hybrid mit reichlich Leistung
Elektroauto BMW iX1 im Test: Der beste Antrieb im X1
Company car tax halved
The demand is also due to national tax legislation. The majority of new cars in Germany are registered to business customers. A flat rate of one percent of the gross list price can be taxed for private use. The assessment basis for this is reduced to half for PHEVs and to a quarter for BEVs up to 70,000 euros. The de facto halving of company car tax was and is the most important selection criterion for PHEVs in Germany, regardless of the abolished direct purchase subsidies ("innovation premium"). A change in the sense of a reduction or abolition is not planned in this legislative period.
The European Union does not share this view: PHEVs are attractive to the automotive industry because they have low CO₂ emissions, which are almost always below 50 grams per kilometer. This is a relevant plus point for fleet limits. However, it is precisely this attraction that will diminish drastically with the introduction of the Euro 6e emissions standard and the subsequent Euro 6e FCM. PHEVs will be judged much more strictly than before, and this is due to the stricter Utility Factor (UF).
CO₂ values of PHEVs will increase
To determine the official CO₂ emissions, PHEVs are tested twice in the laboratory: The test drive runs once with a fully charged traction battery. This means a purely electrically driven test route, as the range is now high enough for this everywhere. The second run is measured with a discharged traction battery, i.e. with emissions from the combustion engine. It is important to note that the battery in the PHEV is never empty, even if the electric range is displayed as "zero kilometers". Some power remains. The electric motor can therefore still provide support.
The two results are weighted based on an assumed electric use - the utility factor. The first tightening of the UF with the introduction of the Euro 6e emission standard for newly type-approved PHEVs from January 1 2025 and for all newly registered PHEVs from January 1 2026 will significantly increase the requirements. To achieve the same CO₂ emissions on paper as before, the electric range of a PHEV would have to increase by around two and a half to three times. The recently presented VW Golf e hybrid with an electric range of 143 km in the WLTP will therefore tend to have worse CO₂ values from 2026 than its predecessor, the Golf 8 GTE with an electric range of 70 km.
BEVs more valuable for the CO₂ balance than PHEVs
According to Jan Dornoff from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), from 2026 at the latest, only PHEVs with a significantly increased range will make sense for the CO₂ fleet balance: "It is doubtful whether this is more economical for manufacturers than increasing the proportion of electric vehicles. Electric cars are already cheaper for buyers. We assume that more realistic consumption figures for PHEVs will reinforce this trend," argues Dornoff.
The second tightening of the utility factor comes with the Euro 6e-FCM emissions standard, which will apply to newly type-approved PHEVs from January 1 2027 and to all newly registered PHEVs from January 1 2028. In order to achieve the same CO₂ values as currently, the electric range must be almost quadrupled. Although the targets have already been defined, they will be subject to revision at the end of this year and must be understood as provisional.
In the car industry's evaluation scheme, this makes PHEVs increasingly uninteresting. The effort required to achieve usable CO₂ emissions is becoming ever greater. As a reminder: from 2025, the average CO₂ values per newly registered car must have fallen by 15 percent compared to the reference period 2021 to 2024. Manufacturers cannot afford to be inactive because the reduction in 2030 will be 55 percent; this can only be achieved with a steadily increasing proportion of electric cars.
Electric cars are getting better and better
From the customer's perspective, the disadvantages of electric cars compared to plug-in hybrids are gradually becoming smaller. For example, the towing capacity of electric cars was initially quite low. This has now changed: A Tesla Model Y, the best-selling car of 2023, pulls up to 1.6 tons. A VW ID Buzz GTX comes in at 1.8 tons, while the Kia EV9 has a maximum weight of 2.5 tons.
Charging times will also fall significantly by the end of the decade. Major battery manufacturers such as CATL have presented 4C-capable systems: The charging stroke from ten to 80 percent still takes around ten minutes, compared to 18 minutes for today's best vehicles. It will be some time before these new battery systems are in mass use, but the spread is likely to increase rapidly in the second half of the decade. Good basic ranges in combination with fast charging times make the electric car practical and acceptable for many people. Ultimately, however, it will mainly be the costs that push PHEVs out of the market. While the components for electric cars, from battery cells to power electronics, are becoming cheaper and cheaper thanks to economies of scale, the multiple costs of PHEVs remain. When it comes to the subsequent workshop bills, owners will consider whether to opt for a plug-in hybrid again.
(anw)