Monthly Outlook

Over the next few days, most places will still have above average temperatures, with brisk winds and the risk of some rain and showers, most likely in the north.

Next week, a colder snap is expected, with potentially wintry showers and overnight frosts. In the week after next, uncertainty will grow.

Trending colder

Through the weekend it will be rather breezy, but many areas will be dry with sunny spells, although areas may be rather cloudy. Showery rain is possible in the far south-west of England, and over northern Scotland. It will remain mild at first, although temperatures could be slightly lower in northern Scotland on Sunday.

Into the working week, with an area of high pressure extending as far as Iceland and into Greenland, conditions could remain a little drier overall. However, a colder and brisk north to north-easterly flow is likely to drop south and south-west along the eastern flank of this high through the early part of the week. Together with weak low-pressure systems approaching from the north-east or passing through, wintry showers could spread further south. Temperatures will fall below average with overnight frosts returning.

However, low pressure systems may approach from the west or south-west of the UK by late next week. A change towards wetter and windier conditions, but also slightly higher temperatures, cannot be ruled out.

Emerging variability

From mid-March onwards, there are a few more possibilities, mainly due to the sudden stratospheric warming event which looks likely to occur around 9 March, which is associated with a displacement of the stratospheric polar vortex off the North Pole. In light of this, a stronger high-pressure signal appears to remain in place further north in the North Atlantic or near the UK, along with a potentially prolonged colder-than-usual period. However, some weather models suggest a return of a more Atlantic-influenced weather pattern, along with the well-known characteristics, i.e. relatively wet, windy, but mostly milder.

The more likely outcome is a slightly cooler or colder period followed by a transition to a more active North Atlantic pattern. The sudden stratospheric warming event (SSW) is likely to result in a more blocked pattern with a slightly higher bias towards high pressure dominated patterns.

A mixed outlook

An Atlantic-influenced pattern might continue or start to occur, albeit with a frontal zone shifted northwards from its climate mean and probably complicated synoptics again. However, a drier and calmer trend seems a little more likely, especially in southern parts of the UK. It could turn wetter and windier, especially from Northern Ireland to Scotland. Overall, there are indications of a milder forecast. The increasing uncertainty arises from the aftermath of the major SSW event earlier in March.

Against this background, some long-range weather prediction models suggest that in early April there will be a stronger high-pressure signal over the far north-west of Europe or over Greenland. However, other model solutions are going for an active Atlantic flow infiltrating most of the UK.

Nevertheless, a drier and somewhat calmer trend with overall lower than average temperatures with a chance of overnight frosts remains possible.

The update on Tuesday could provide information on the duration of this colder snap and also on the ongoing risk of such patterns recurring at the end of March and into April.