Gwadar Port as an Economic Zone its impact on Region

Gwadar Port as an Economic Zone its impact on Region MASTER OF PHILOSOPHY (M. PHIL) IN PAKISTAN STUDIES BY DILDAR ALI PKS-2015-08 DEPARTMENT OF PAKISTAN STUDIES FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCE SHAH ABDUL LATIF UNIVERSITY, KHAIRPUR SINDH, PAKISTAN 2019 Gwadar Port as an Economic Zone its impact on Region MASTER OF PHILOSOPHY (M. PHIL) IN PAKISTAN STUDIES BY: DILDAR ALI PKS-2015-08 SUPERVISOR PROF. DR: AMIR ALI CHANDIO DEPARTMENT OF PAKISTAN STUDIES FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES SHAH ABDUL LATIF UNIVERSITY, KHAIRPUR SINDH, PAKISTAN 2019 AUTHOR’S DECLARATION I Dildar Ali s/o Abdul Qadir hereby declare that my thesis titled “Gwadar Port as an Economic Zone: Its Impact on Region”. In my personal work and has not been submitted by anyone else previously for the award of degree in M. Phil or Ph. D for this university (Shah Abdul Latif University, Khairpur)or anywhere in the Pakistan or beyond. At any time if my statement is found to be incorrect even after the award of degree this university has the right to withdraw my M. Phil degree. __________ Dildar Ali Chohan PLAGIARISM UNDERTAKING I Dildar Ali s/o Abdul Qadir, M.Phil. scholar solemnly declare that research work presented in the thesis titled “Gwadar Port as an Economic Zone: Its Impact on Region” is solely my research work with no significant contribution from any other person. Small contribution/ help taken has been duly acknowledged and that complete thesis has been written by me. I undertake the zero-tolerance policy of the HEC and University (Shah Abdul Latif University, Khairpur) towards plagiarism. Therefore, I as an Author of the above titled this declare that no person of my thesis has been plagiarized and any material used as a reference is properly cited. I undertake that if I am found guilty of any formal plagiarism in the above titled thesis even after award of M. Phil. The university reserves the right to withdraw my degree and the HEC and the University has the right to publish my name on the HEC/University Website on which names of students are placed who submitted plagiarized thesis. ______________ Dildar Ali Chohan CERTIFICATE OF RESEARCH GUIDE This is to certify that the thesis entitled: “Gwadar Port as an Economic Zone: Its Impact on Region” submitted to Shah Abdul Latif University, Khairpur in partial fulfillment or requirement for the award of Degree of Master of Philosophy in Pakistan Studies subject, is a record of original research work done by Mr. Dildar Ali s/o Abdul Qadir under my supervision and guidance. Prof. Dr. Amir Ali Chandio Supervisor CERTIFICATE OF APPROVAL This is to certify that the research work presented in this thesis, titled “Gwadar Port as an Economic Zone Its Impact on Region” was conducted by Mr. Dildar Ali s/o Abdul Qadir Chohan under the supervision of Prof. Dr. Amir Ali Chandio. No part of this thesis has been submitted anywhere else for any other degree. This thesis is submitted to the Institution/ Department of Pakistan Studies in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Philosophy in the field of Pakistan Studies Department of Pakistan Studies Shah Abdul Latif University, Khairpur. The thesis is evaluated by: Examination Committee: External Examiner: Prof. Dr. Musavir Hussain Bukhari ____________ (Chairman, Department of Political Science Islamia University, Bahawalpur) Internal Examiner/Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Amir Ali Chandio _________ (Chairman, Department of Political Science Shah Abdul Latif University, Khairpur) In charge/Chairman: Prof. Inayatullah Bhutti _______________ (In charge, Department of Political Science Shah Abdul Latif University, Khairpur) Dean: Prof. Dr. Imdad Hussain Sehto _______________ (Dean Faculty Social Sciences, Shah Abdul Latif University, Khairpur) DEDICATION To my Supervisor Family & Friends TITLE PAGE NO. Title Page Outer Title page Outer Declaration Page Plagiarism understanding Certificate Page Certificate of Approval Dedication Page List of Tables List of Figures List of Illustrations/Maps/ Slides Acknowledgement or Preface page Abstract or Summary page Abbreviations I II III IV V VI Introduction 112 Material and Methods 4 Aims and Objectives 18 CHAPTER-1 1. Historical Background 19 2. Geographic Profile 23 3. Demographic Profile 26 4. Development since Partition 27 5. Russian Invasion 30 6. Karakoram Highway 32 7. Port Singapore Authority 33 8. Importance of Gwadar 34 9. Trade Forecast 40 Chapter-2 PAGE NO. CHINA PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR 1 A Brief Introduction to CPEC 41 2 Importance for the China 46 3 Importance for Pakistan 52 3.1 Importance for Punjab 55 3.2 Importance for Sindh 56 3.3 Importance for KPK 58 3.4 Importance for Baluchistan 59 3.4.1 Fisher man 60 3.4.2 Education 60 3.4.3 Water Issues 61 4 CPEC and Economic Stability 64 5 Importance for Azad Kashmir 65 6 Importance for the region 66 CHINA PAKISTAN ENERGY COOPERATION 1 Energy Projects 69 2 Gas Pipeline 70 3 Oil Pipeline 71 4 Communication 73 4.1 Rail 73 4.2 4.3 Road Alignments Routes 75 76 4.4 Airport 78 Chapter-3 IMPACTS ON THE REGION 1 Role of State and Non-State Actors 1.2 Turning Majority into Minority 1.3 Illegal Transportation 1.3 Threats by Baloch 1.5 Uighur Movement 1.6 State Actors 1.7 Security of CPEC 2 Impacts on Sino-Pak Relations 3 Regional Concern over CPEC 4 India 4.1 Military Purpose of Gwadar 4.2 India on Gilgit and Kashmir 4.3 Indian Involvement in Baluchistan 5 Iran 5.1 Chabahar 6 Saudi Arabia 7 United Sates Chapter-4 Conclusion 1 Finding 2 Conclusion 3 Recommendations Bibliography Appendixes A Appendixes B Appendixes C Appendixes D Appendixes E 79 81 82 83 84 86 87 89 91 95 96 100 102 104 105 108 109 PAGE NO. 113 116 117 Title 1 2 3 4 5 5 PAGE NO. PAGE NO. 119 126 127 128 129 130 List of Table Table 1 .......................................... ……………………………………………………………………………………(23) Table 2 .................................................…………………………………………………………………………….(26) Table 3 .............................................................................................................................. (27) Table 4 .............................................................................................................................. (31) Table 5 .............................................................................................................................. (33) Table 6 .............................................................................................................................. (40) Table 7 .............................................................................................................................. (45) Table 8 .............................................................................................................................. (88) List of Maps Map 1 .......................................... …………………………………………………………………………………… (43) Map 2 ................................................. ……………………………………………………………………………. (68) Map 3 ............................................................................................................................... (71) Map 4 ............................................................................................................................... (75) Map 5 ............................................................................................................................... (76) Map 6 ............................................................................................................................... (78) Map 7 ............................................................................................................................... (98) i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Foremost, I would like to express my gratitude to my supervisor Prof. Dr. Amir Ali Chandiowho advised me on this topic and provided me proper direction and guidance in this regard throughout my research work. His counseling really helped me in all directions on my M.phil thesis. Beside his supervision, I would like to thank Advance Studies Research Board and Board members for accepting proposal and thesis, particularly Prof. Dr. Parveen Shah for granting me extension. Prof. Inayatullah Bhutti Incharge Department of Pakistan Studies. Chairman and Dean Social Sciences Prof. Dr. Imadad Hussain Sehto for moral support. I am also very grateful to former Prime Minister Nawaza Sharif equipping mewith technical assistance through laptop and EVO. Aamir Ali SubInspector at Gwadar for helping as correspondent,Hubdar Ali for continuously encouraging me on writing thesis. Besides I also thank to Mr. Aashiq Hussain Abbasi (HOD at Cadet College Ghotki: CCG) and Iftikhar Hussain Kolachi Librarian at CCG, Asif Raza Zaidi lecturer Urdu at CCG, Syed Yaseen Ali Shah Bukhari Lecturer at IBA Sukkur University, Akhlaque Ahmad, my father Abdul Qadir, my loving mother and all whom I could not mention their names. Especial thanks to Aashique Hussain Abbasi, and Akram Ali Phulpoto (both Lecturers Cadet College, Ghotki), Ms. Maria Fatima (Lecturer IBA University, Sukkur) and her Husband Shahadat Hussain for spotting grammatical errors after evaluation. I gratefully acknowledge to quote fromMuhammad Usam Amin Siddiqi’s (2010). Baloch Ethno-Nationalism: The Quest for Understanding for A Peaceful Future., Tahir Mehdi and others’ (2009d) Profile of District Gwadar with focus on livelihood related issues. Mr. Hamid’s (1997) Gwadar a District Profile.Subrahmanyam’s (1974). The Interests of External Powers in Pakistan. .International Journal of Politics.Rajan, Alok’s (10, May 2015) The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: India's Options,Ahmad’s (Sept 2014). Improving Regional Trade to Support Pakistan's Economic Growth. Pakistan: The Worsening Conflict in Balochistan Crisis Group Asia Report and other primary and secondary sources such as library Cadet College Ghotki, interpretation, analysis, maps, diagrams , thesis and dissertations. ii ABSTRACT China Pakistan Economic Corridor is a bunch of multiple projects on construction of railroad, airport, and pipeline projects to import and export Chinese goods at intraregional and ultra-regional degrees, Gwadar is the hub and center of this Corridor, its cost’s US $46 billion increase to US $64 billion including energy projects.CPEC is the project of investment in energy and a corridor to upgrade Gwadar, provide railroad connectivity and enhance trade and transport at intra and extra regional levels. The project has socio-economic benefits. Although India and US have reservations but the project has no military ambitions. Pakistan will generate revenue, find employment opportunities, up gradation of railroads, furthermore it will end energy crisis. What benefits, prospects and economic securities Pakistan would have from this CPEC, shall be studied in this study. The purpose of this study is to look into benefits for Pakistan and China, reservation and defence of the project, role of state and non-state actors and regional importance with special reference to its impacts on regional level. To conduct study on this particular subject qualitative and quantitative methods are chosen. Primary cum Secondary sources are used. The study is concluded with its positive and negative impacts on Pakistan. It will end energy crisis, boost our economy, provide shelter from insurgencies in Baluchistan, development in infrastructure and transport corridor, it will reduce rice crop cultivation, will have lingual impact on society, and increase in communism. iii ABBREVIATION ADB AJK ATT B.C BCIM-EC BHUs BLA BOT CARs CENTO CGCL COAS COPHC CPEC Corridor DIE EIC ETIM FATA FDI FOCAC Cooperation FTA GCC GDA GDP GPEC Asian Development Bank Azad Jamu and Kashmir Afghan Transit Trade Baluchistan Constabulary Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar- Economic Corridor Basic Health Units Baloch Liberation Army Built Operate Transfer Central Asian Republics Central Treaty Organization Chinese Government Concessional Loan Chief of Army Staff China Overseas Port Holding Company China Pakistan Economic ICSRC IPI ISIS KCR KKH OBOR OGDC PPRA PSA SAFs SCO SEATO SEZ Deutsches Institutfür Entwicklungspolitik East India Company East Turkestan Islamic Movement Federal Administrative Tribal Areas Foreign Direct Investment Forum on China-Africa Free Trade Agreement Gulf Cooperation Council Gwadar Development Authority Gross Domestic Products Gwadar Pakistan Economic Corridor SLOCs SSD STNC TAP TAPI TF UNRMT India China Silk Route Corridor Iran, Pakistan, India Islamic State Iraq and Syria Karachi Circular Railway Karakoram Highway One Belt and One Road Oil and Gas Development Cooperation Public Procurement Regular Authority Port of Singapore Authority Civil Armed Forces Shanghai Cooperation Organization South East Asia Treaty Organization Kashgar Special Economic Zone Sea Lines of Communications Special Security Division South Transport North Corridor Trans-Afghan Gas Pipeline Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India Task Force United Nation’s Review Maritime Transport iv ﷽ INTRODUCTION First chapter begins with the etymology of the word Gwadar and its literal meaning. It contains geography, culture, altitude, administrative units, and brief history from pre and post era. It was a fishing village but in future it will be amongst biggest cities of world cities. Due to its close proximity with the Arabian Sea, the climate remains moderate, and January and December are the rainy months. It was the closet region of Porous and enhances path for the emigration to East and West Asia. Its proximity with Strait of Hormuz raises its importance for the Northern, Eastern and Western Asia. It was a state of Khan of Kalat. Alexander, Chandra Gupta, Mughals, Portuguese and Mohammad bin Qasim were generals of their time who invaded on and marched through this region. British made agreement divided the Baloch nation into three parts, one living in Pakistan while the rest of two are in Afghanistan and Iran, the accords are named as Durand (1893) and Goldsmith (1871) agreement. Russian invasion to approach warm water and the Gulf region enhanced the importance of Gwadar. Now Russia can quench her thirst of warm water through CPEC. Iranian gas under IPI (Iran, Pak-India) could easily be transported through well secured Gwadar than the old barren and vulnerable route. Although Pakistan had formed alliance of SEATO and CENTO in 1955s against Russia, Japan and China, only after 8 years China became all weather friends to Pakistan. She helped in during war and proved that a friend in need is a friend indeed. The Construction of Gwadar under PSA (Port Singapore Authority) began in 2002, while CPEC project has raised its important to an international subject of study. This all-weather port is second deepest port after port of Singapore and can dock at S-type ships. Second chapter is divided into two parts, part one deals with CPEC as China Pakistan Economic Corridor while part two deals with CPEC as China Pakistan Energy Corridor. A careful study has been done to produce a glimpse of CPEC including an introduction to Corridor, its regional connectivity, and its importance for China and 1 Pakistan. However, the importance for Pakistan has been classified into provinces and benefits of CPEC for these provinces. As Baluchistan is the hub of these activities so their basic problems like livelihood, education, water and electricity has been discussed in detail. The benefits of the corridor for other provinces have been dilated upon. The project is beneficial for China with respect to time, cost and distance. It will reduce the distance from 10,000 km through Malacca to 4,500 through CPEC. It will augment Chinese influence on Indian Ocean and GDP. China could easily monitor sea activities through ships and get rid from clashes over South China Sea; the port will be used by China as an alternative. Pakistan is facing shortage of electricity and power, which could be resolved by adding 10,400 MW via CPEC projects on energy corridors. Gas and Oil pipelines are also part of the corridor to import Gulf oil. For the purpose, pipelines will be set up along the CPEC routes to be monitored by Pakistan. The agenda will serve dire need of China for oil and gas to satisfy foreign investors in China. Three routes will be constructed under the project named CPEC, the routes are, Central, Western and Eastern. Eastern route is safest than rest of the two routes. This corridor project is beneficial for the region, China and Pakistan, the project was termed as game changer for the region and especially for Pakistan and China. Regional countries have also been invited to invest in CPEC to harvest benefits. Chapter third deal with the role of Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) Baluchistan Liberation Organization (BLO), and other insurgents in favour of the segregation of Baluchistan and against CPEC, natives deem that it would change the demography and geography of the district and such organizations emerge due to lack of socioeconomic securities, but once these reservations are resolved public will be found in protest against outlawed organizations. CPEC will provide security to Baluchistan. It will increase economic to military cooperation with China. Water and electricity are the main issues of natives; only 2 million gallons had been supplied to Gwadar. To resolve water issue Karwat Desalinization water plant is being installed. Furthermore, it deals with Indian reservations. India is not happy with this project because it is crossing via Kashmir disputed region between India and Pakistan. India considers CPEC as engulfing agenda of China. India is being engulfed from North to South by China. Indian involvement in Chabahar is a tactic to take on CPEC but is a big mistake because of no land route connectivity. Iran is Muslim neighbor to Pakistan, as 2 national interest remains permanent and every country uses every possible effort to increase economy. Thus Iran is doing with India. Chabahar cannot support docking of S-type ships and its depth is not as deep as Gwadar port. Saudi Arabia is interested in CPEC, it will provide S. Arabia exploring and expanding oil to China and CARs. U.S like India is also not happy with this project because after some decades CARs, and Afghanistan will provide satisfying energy requirements of the world and Gwadar will provide route to these countries via India Ocean. Trump administration is found in favour of India thus reiterated Indian reservations over Kashmir and G.B. Last chapter is a brief of thesis and revolves around major findings, conclusion and recommendations. 3 MATERIAL AND METHODS The findings from the literature review are mentioned below Rajan, Alok (2015c) The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: India’s Options, Delhi: Institute of Chinese Stdudies (ICS) Highlighted New Delhi has opposed it on the pretext that it is passing through disputed territory (which is disputed territory for Indo-Pak). CPEC and One Belt and One Road (OBOR) is deemed as expansionist agenda. India termed Pak-China relations amid at containing India. Even then there is need of research on this particular topic. Furthermore, the Economic Corridor is a tool of cooperation, the corridor links developed, under developing and developing regions for economical integrity, above mentioned is the cause of CPEC and Bangladesh China India Myanmar (BCIM) in South Asia former links Gwadar with Xinjiang and the rest link up India with Yunnan province in China. The projects are products of ‘Marching Westward Policy’ and ‘One Belt One Road’. The objectives would be achieved via optical cables, pipelines, and ports. Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank allocates finance to reinforce infrastructural projects. OBOR has been globally acknowledged; Delhi has restrained and perceives it immersing agenda. The author suggests to India, “CPEC assumes crucial significance for Indian policymakers. The proposal presents some difficult yet interesting and promising options for India which, if exercised boldly and innovatively, may open new vistas of regional cooperation, stability and economic growth.” (Rajan.2015, P.3) Joint Cooperation Committee assigned task to accomplish, on his visit to Pakistan in 2015, Xi signature memorandum of understandings worth $28 billion. It discusses routes and provinces’ hue and cry especially by Baluchistan. China has been upgrading N-314 and N-35 under CPEC, the author provides handful knowledge on Trans Asia Highway and CPEC. Asian Highways I, II, and III are operating, beside would be connected with the corridors. 4 Portia B. Conrad (2017) China's Access to Gwadar Port: Strategic Implications and Options for India, Maritime Affairs: Journal of the National Maritime Foundation of India. The author defends Gwadar as a source of strong relation between China and Pakistan and says it will augment her (Pak) regional importance. Free Trade Agreement between presidents from both sides became initial step towards CPEC. China Overseas Port Holdings has been holding Gwadar since 2013; CPEC is one of corridors under Belt and Road. “The commitment to develop Gwadar port is a good indicator to the fast expansion of China Maritime interest and strategic influence in India’s neighborhood.” (Portia.2017, p.55) in this article the author describes Gwadar as third deep sea port (in Pakistan)while the fact is contrary to it, Gwadar with respect to its depth on the first rank with 18-meter depth, while Karachi port has 10-meter and Qasim port has 12-meter depth. It will provide an access to South, Central and West Asia. It will also provide Chinese footholds on Indian Ocean. The port will provide capabilities to Pakistan Navy. “The port besides being a corridor for trade to and from its docks can potentially generate at least two million jobs for the people of Baluchistan alone.” (pg: 56). China and Pakistan will enable too closely keep watching ‘Sea Lines of Communications’ (SLOCs) on Hormuz and Arabian Sea. It provides group action in Energy sector. Many Asian countries are land locked, hence Gwadar can provide them trade and transit route to South China Sea and Indian Ocean. Turkman gas could easily be pipelined; Kazakhstan’s oil will have means to transport to South Asian region. Further the author deals with development in two phases, first phase begun in 2002 to build three berths, the second phase constructed berths, cargo and oil terminals. The article also mentions question with response to it. China has two important and reservations with India first Indian Naval power and second Indian interest in Iran and Afghanistan, thus forced her (China) to invest in gigantic CEPC. It also deals with Uighur’s hide outs in Afghanistan and Pakistan and with militants such as Al-Qaida and Taliban. 5 Akbar Ali, (20 July 2016). China Pakistan Economic Corridor: Prospects and Challenges for Regional. Arts and Social Sciences Journal 7 (4) The author has introduce the abstract “As a flagship of China’s One Belt One Road initiative, China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is pivotal to China’s energy security owing to the growing row in the region of South China Sea among China and other regionaland global players. The CPEC could bring economic avenues to Pakistan and can foster regional and cross regional economic and trade integration between South Asia, Central Asia, East Asia and West Asia. However, it is also surrounded by some serious challenges ranging from regional security environment, internal instability to political discontent among various political actors in the Pakistani polity”. It covers strategic significance of CPEC, regional trade and economic integration, can CPEC be transformed into IICPEC, challenges to CPEC, Baluchistan conundrum, and political discontent in Pakistan. The author wants Pakistan to realize that it has failed to take benefits from its geo-political location. It stresses upon Pakistan to link the corridor with the India to reap collective benefits from India, and China. Landlocked resources of Central Asia are waiting for regional market to drift into India, Pakistan, China and South East Asian States because CPEC is at the crossroad of Asia. He further invites Pakistan to revisit her trade policies to expect more and more regional and global markets oriented environment. The author has mentioned one of the concerns India “Gwadar Port under the control of China can be turned into a permanent Chinese naval facility in the Indian Ocean though it may not be a reality at least at this stage” and it is the changer of South Asia’s geopolitics. India had long desire for transit route of Afghanistan; Pakistan denied her access through its territory. Thus, India opted for Chahbahr against CPEC. If both the Chahbahr and the CPEC connected together, and India is allowed to have access through CPEC, It the CPEC can be turned into IICPEC, India Iran China Pakistan Economic Corridor. Furthermore, for the betterment of Pakistan’s regional trade and activities he suggests to go with TAPI. It has been facing serious challenges long before its inception and after it. The main threat to the security is “The security situation in Afghanistan is getting worse day by day and even could be devastating after the withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan.”, and in the context of Baluchistan conundrum the author says, “A debate is already going on in the indigenous populace of Baluchistan that the CPEC will benefit only the Chinese 6 interest and could convert the local population into a minority. Such feelings of deprivation coupled with foreign involvement in the province as has been claimed by Pakistan recently, can be a serious challenge to CPEC.” To protect CPEC from within and threats outside of it, the author suggests the security of corridor in these words, “The joint security of the CPEC between China, Pakistan and India can usher a new economic beginning in the region and can bring the countries more closely. China has already indicated that CPEC is not a bilateral move, rather a regional and cross regional move.” At the end his research article produces conclusion as “CPEC could foster socio-economic development in Pakistan if materialized timely. It can pave the way for regional economic and trade connectivity and integration between the region of South, Central and East Asia but that needs a change in the existing attitude of India and Pakistan toward more economic and trade relations. The regional economic integration through CPEC could be a harbinger to resolve the political differences through economic cooperation. The states of South Asia, Central Asia and East Asia need more regional economic connection to make the 21st century the Asian century setting aside the perennial political issues to start a new beginning. The CPEC as a flagship of OBOR can be a catalyst to begin regional trade and economic integration. However, some potential threats could hamper the CPEC to be transformed into a reality, namely the worsening security situation in Afghanistan and its spill over to Pakistan, political controversy in Pakistan regarding the selection of routes in various provinces of Pakistan and the trust deficit among certain regional states. In a longer perspective the CPEC can foster an economic community in the entire region of Asia and beyond if its vision is materialized in its true sense.” Malik, H Yasir, (2012). Strategic Importance of Gwadar Port. Journal of Political Studies, 19 (issue 2) The author has introduced the abstract “The pragmatic facets like geography and history have always imprinted the demographical mosaic and development of a civilization. The civilizations have always developed along the waters. The waters have been used as trade route since long and the modern trade has further enhanced the need of trade through waters. Pakistan being a gateway to the strategically important 'Strait Of Hurmuz' in the Indian Ocean, blessed with hidden treasures and bordering two Islamic Republics, Afghanistan and Iran, has always been a center piece for Regional Politics. The emergence of Gwadar Port as a vibrant regional 7 economic hub has caused the regional and extra regional powers to develop strategic and infra structural development with Gwadar Port to reach the energy rich Central Asian Republics (CARs). Iran and Dubai Port World (UAE) have interests to keep Gwadar Port out of competition as it serves as a gateway to Strait of Hurmuz. Pakistan needs to be addressing all the concerns to make Gwadar as a regional energy corridor.” This research article deal with geo strategic importance, Project development plan, economic update of project, interest of key players, interest of CARs, interest of Afghanistan, Persian Gulf and Asian interest. The importance of Geo Strategic starts with famous quote of former President General Pervez Musharraf, the quote stresses its importance on the regional importance of Gwadar, and President stated the importance 11 years before the commencement of CPEC. It states, “If we see this whole region, it is like a funnel. The top of the funnel is this wide area of Central Asia and also China's western region. And this funnel gets narrowed on through Afghanistan and Pakistan and the end of this funnel is Gwadar port. So this funnel, futuristically, is the economic funnel of this whole region”. Geographical environment is the key factor to the progress of human society. Sea is one of the key factors of geographic environment and advantage of it. The port has depth, and far distance from Indian attacks to decrease vulnerability. On the sea Gwadar has advantage to monitor Sea Lines of Communications (SLOCs), and to check the 5th Naval Fleet of US and an Indian desire to egress Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea. The author stress the strategic essentiality of Gwadar in these words, “In case Malacca Strait is blocked by U.S Gwadar can serve as an alternate route for Chinese trade in the Indian Ocean and to West Asia. In military and strategic terms, Gwadar can help China to monitor the sea-lanes from the Persian Gulf as about 60% of Chinese energy requirements come from the Persian Gulf and transit along this sealane. The port of Gwadar Port can provide China a Listening Post to Observe the Indian naval activities around the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Adan.” In the interest of key players the author has taken a reference from Bhonsle, Rahul K. (2006). The India Security Scope 2006: The New Great Game. Gyan Publishing House, New Delhi, India Which states,“TheStrategically Gwadar holds a dominant position in the Gulf Region as part of the ‘Great Game.” He supports the interest of CARs and to reduce dependency on Russia, CARs have two alternatives the Chabahr and the Gwadar. But due to harsh and heavy sanctions on Iran, western countries do 8 not favour Chabahr, in that case Gwadar remains the sole viable trade and transit route for CARs. The author mentions few facets due to show the importance of Gwadar for CARs. 1. “The Caspian Region is in need of a suitable route for pipeline approaches and Gwadar as a gateway to Strait of Hurmuz is the most suitably option.” (Malik.2012, p.63) 2. “In order to bridge the geographical gap Turkey proposed to establish a railway link between Central and South Asia (India), the proposal failed because of the terrestrial limitations. In the present global circumstances and availability of Silk Route Pakistan appears to be the best option.” (Malik.2012, p.64) 3. “The CARs are still dependent on Russia, mainly because of the old Moscow based communication grids which control international mail, telephone, telegraph links and other communication infrastructure. Russia was and is still alarmed by the possibility of cheap Central Asian gas for European market because it would compete with Russian gas giant Gazprom. In order to get rid of Russian influence and to strengthen their own economy by exporting their abundant mineral and oil wealth, besides the Caspian Sea there are two routes available to these countries, one passing through Iranian Chabahar Port and the other leading through Pakistan. The western oil exploring companies are not in favour of the trade route through Iran; hence Gwadar emerges as most viable port.” (Malik.2012, p.64) The article also highlights the facts on the importance of Gwadar for Afghanistan. Out of these three are essential to be mentioned here. 1. “For a developing and a landlocked country like Afghanistan, which is in need of immediate access to warm waters Gwadar appears to be a most suitable opportunity.” (Malik.2012, p.64) 2. “The U.S would like that the Afghan trade should be routed through Pakistan and not through Iran.” (Malik.2012, p.64) 3. “Afghanistan will get all the port related amenities, warehousing services, transit conveniences and import opportunities.” (Malik.2012, p.64) 9 The article is concluded in these words, “Both military and economic power now depends upon oil. In military and strategic terms, Gwadar will help Pakistan to monitor the SLOCs from the Persian Gulf. Gwadar is of strategic importance, lying across the SLOCs emanating out of the strategic choke point of Hormuz, from where 13 million barrels of oil is transported daily (Dawn, 2008). Globally, from the waters of Gwadar one can regulator the whole Indian Ocean with trade courses of far eastern countries, Pacific Rim and Persian Gulf Region. Pakistan will be able to prevent any ‘bottling’ of its navy as was witnessed during the Indo–Pakistan conflict in 1971 and also during the Kargil crisis, by developing Gwadar. The port will afford strategic depth to Pakistan’s marine assets, both commercial and military. Gwadar Sea Port is not only providing strategic depth to Pakistan but will surely bring in prosperity for entire region”. Ahmad, M., 2014. Improving Regional Trade to Support Pakistan’s Economic. The Lahore Journal of Economics, 19 (SE), p. 461–469 The article is abstracted in these lines, “Regional trade has been an important factor in the economic success of many countries. Within most trading blocs, intra-regional trade comprises 40 percent or more of each member country’s individual trade. However, for the regional arrangements of which Pakistan is a member, intra-regional trade accounts for less than 5 percent. Pakistan’s strategic location is its greatest asset, but it has not leveraged this to its advantage. Although it was a relatively forwardlooking country until the mid-1960s its policies have not been favorable to promoting trade and economic development since then. While other successful developing countries have espoused liberal trade regimes since the 1980s— resorting to protectionism only on a selective basis—Pakistan continues to rely on import substitution policies. Clearly, the country needs to revisit its regional and global trade policies.” The author has focused on regional trade in Pakistan’s context, regional trade in the global context, and the way forward. Pakistan started looking forward for integrated economy during 1960s. The transcended Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia, but today the case is adverse. The trade of Pakistan in her 1970s slugged because of Nationalization which enabled industrial and services sectors to put higher demands. The author present the trade figures of Pakistan as under 10 Pakistan’s comparative export performance Billion 600 400 USD 200 0 South India Malaysia Indonesia Turkey Philippines Pakistan Korea Pakistan has high expectation from the CPEC project. It straddles trade route between South, West and Central Asia. Further the author laments on the trade situation of Pakistan in these words, “At present, however, hardly any transit trade passes through these Pakistani ports despite the fact that all these countries would benefit greatly from lower trade and transportation costs.” Pakistan will have benefits from South Asia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) and Economic Cooperation Organization Trade Agreement (ECOTA). When SATA was set up allowed could include limited items in its Positive List. Although in 2012, Pakistan liberalized its trade policies but still there are some restricts or reservations in comparative advantage. Pakistan signed ECOTA in 2003. Although, some countries have started trading under the terms of TIR Convention, but in its real sense it has not commenced journey yet. Pakistan could reap benefits as it could impose different regional transit trade agreements, already signed. Out of these transit trade agreements Afghanistan Pakistan Transit and Trade Agreement was only implementing in 2011. Besides, these Pakistan is signatory to various FTAs with Malaysia, Indonesia, China, Sri Lanka, and Mauritius. The author also discusses the way forward, “In 2010, Pakistan also joined the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program, a partnership of ten countries and six multilateral institutions; 2012 was declared the Year of Regional Trade and Economic Connectivity. In its Vision 2025 document, the present government has emphasized the importance of promoting Pakistan’s economic development.” He asks Pakistan to set her competitors as benchmark. The table compares tariffs of various countries, to be noticed that the tariffs of Pakistan are so much high than other developing states. 11 H 8.5 M 4.8 L Plastics/rubber L 9.4 L 9.5 L 8.4 M 13.2 M 12.6 H 17.0 Paper/paperboard L 5.3 M 9.1 L 4.4 M 10.3 H Textiles M 11.5 L Pakistan Indonesia H 6.5 SriLanka India Chemicals Malaysia China Comparison of average industrial tariffs 2.8 H 8.6 Commodity group Glassware/ceramic L s 13.4 L Machinery M 8.3 Vehicles L Misc manufactures L L 1.9 7.7 L 9.8 M 10.8 L 9.5 L 7.9 M 17.9 M 17.8 H 24.7 7.2 L 5.2 L 5.4 L 12.8 H 15.8 L 6.7 4.9 H 18.7 H 12.2 13.2 H 30.2 L 16.9 L 17.7 L 15.5 H 35.8 11.6 L 9.5 8.9 19.8 H 21.3 9.8 L L H H = high, L = low, M = median. Source: World Trade Organization. The author has concluded his research as, “Pakistan needs to revisit its regional and global trade policies. It must fully embrace trade with India and Central Asia by opening up more routes and acceding to the TIR Convention. Pakistan’s ports could provide Central Asia with the shortest land route to sea and there is tremendous export potential among the Central Asian markets. With regard to global trade, Pakistan must restructure its taxation policies and look for ways to integrate its comparative advantages within global supply chains. It must also reassess its current protectionist policies, which are stifling the economy and undermining the country’s ability to compete in the global market. Instead, Pakistan must allow domestic industries and infrastructure to operate in an environment that maximizes its potential.” Mehdi, Tahir (2009d) Profile of District Gwadar with focus on livelyhood related issues. Raiwind: South Asian Partnership Pakistan Related issues is a report published in Dec 2009 by South Asia Partnership-Pakistan deals with the brief history of Gwadar, Geographic and Demographic profile, literacy, health, agriculture, livestock and fishing. The report presents Gwadar a fishing port and economic hub for the natives. “Gwadar deep sea port's Emergence as Regional 12 Trade and Transportation” prospects and problems provide details about strategic location and importance for Iran, Afghanistan, China, and Pakistan. Its historical background starts from 1965 and jots down Afghanistan, Pakistan Turkmenistan Iran known as TAPI and Pakistan Iran, and India (IPI) in details. Further analysis revolves around China-Pak cooperation and challenges faced by Gwadar Port. Hussain, Z., (2017). The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the New Regional Geopolitics. Asie Vission. 94(Ifri) Who is seasoned journalist and has remained part of The Times of London. In the executive summary of the said title, indicates that there has occurred a significant change in geopolitics and CPEC has brought shift in multidimensional relations between China and Pakistan. The project has energy, investment and economic benefits for Pakistan. It provides her external connectivity thus making it a game changer among the regional countries. Pakistan would have to face serious implications if it could not revisit its policies on the balance of payment. On the other hand, Pakistan should negotiate with Chinese firms to harvest benefits in abundance. Pakistan should resolve provincial disputes and concentrate on backward areas. The writer starts the introduction with famous quote “This will be my first visit to Pakistan, but I feel as if I am going to visit the home of my own brother.” Xi Jimping, wrote in an editorial on April 19, 2015 on the eve of his visit to Islamabad. Road and Initiative is the ambitious plan of China of which CPEC is a part. It is tri-continental connectivity project to boost up economy, culture and transportation. This “flagship project” (a term used by Chinese Government) will serve “Silk Road Economic Belt” and Maritime Silk Road.” It is a new dimensional in relation to Chinese friendship and regional hub, thus Pakistan termed it as “Game Changer”. Author has divided subject material into sections, first section deals with China Pakistan relations. The relations take off in1950s, although Pakistan had allied with America against Communist Block, but the alliance couldn’t resist Pakistan from cordial relations with China. Pakistan is trust on China more than its long-lasting ally America. China has assisted Pakistan with military equipment and has jointly ventured F-17 thunder. It was China who provided Pakistan with Nuclear feasibility material after France had withdrawn to supply in 1974(India tested Nuclear on Pokhran). Second section mentions the technical assistance in relations between the iron brothers. US after Afghan-Russian war stopped the military aid to Pakistan 13 through Pressler Amendment, stopped the supplement of F-16 twenty-eight aircraft Pakistan had paid for. China has helped Pakistan in maintaining balance of power in the region. American fed up Pakistan and made her more dependent on China to come out of crisis coming out through Pressler Amendment. China didn’t paid heed to American sanctions on Pakistan and delivered 34 Ballistic and M-11 missiles. China also helped her in technology to produce her own missile like Shaheen-I. Third section explains CPEC. In this section writer explains CPEC in terms of its cost, value of project, and projects in infrastructure, fiber optics, energy and wind corridors. The largest section deals with its importance for Pakistan in the form of loans, and development. The author has included not much more than we have learnt from previous literature review. It also mentions Pakistan’s expectations and Chinese interest in the CPEC. Last section points out questions about the future of CPEC. The author questions on benefits and cost of investment in CPEC. Man and material resources of China results in flow back of investment to China which means major dividends will move back to China than Pakistan. Chinese firms have been awarded tax concession but why not this concession is being given to Pakistani companies to complete with Chinese firms. The author concludes in these words. “Once the projects are implemented Pakistan’s geostrategic location should make it a potential nexus for Eurasian Silk Road Economic Belt and a Southeast Asian Maritime Silk Road. The CPEC could then not only serve as a game changer for Pakistan, but also for the entire region.” Small, A., (2015). The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia's new Geopolitics. CIRR, XXII(79), p.201-6 Deals with CPEC to eradicate United States (US) influence in South Asia, Central Asian Republics (CARs), Middle East, Military and Nuclear cooperation of China with Pakistan Chapter four of this book deals with extremism by Baloch and Uighur extremist of China disliking Economic Corridor “Regional Geo-Strategic Challenges and Opportunities for China and Pakistan” published by The China-Pakistan Joint Think Tank. This is a work paper that deals with the geostrategic challenges and opportunities to Pakistan and China; the regional dynamics, China-Pakistan Mutual interdependence, and challenges as opportunities by U.S, Iran, Afghanistan and India. 14 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Before going into details, it is hereby acknowledged that most of the research methodologies are from the book of Rajeet Kumar’s research methodology. “Research in common parlance refers to a search for knowledge. One can also define research as a scientific and systematic search for pertinent information on a specific topic. In fact, research is an art of scientific investigation.” (Kothari.1990, p.1) The research methodology can be defined as under “Methodology is the systematic, theoretical analysis of the methods applied to a field of study. It comprises the theoretical analysis of the body of methods and principles associated with a branch of knowledge. Typically, it encompasses concepts such as paradigm, theoretical model, phases and quantitative or qualitative techniques.” (Irny, S.I, Rose, A.2005) Both types of Qualitative and Quantitative research are used for the purpose of this study and Primary cum Secondary Sources were used for the collection of Data. “Quantitative research is based on the measurement of quantity or amount. It is applicable to phenomena that can be expressed in terms of quantity. Qualitative research, on the other hand, is concerned with qualitative phenomenon, i.e., phenomena relating to or involving quality or kind.” (Kothari.1990, p.3) The primary research is based on interviews, observations and use of correspondents. In this, researcher has personally participated in all activities and allowed to use correspondents. This type of data collection is based on interview and person’s attitude, behavior and honesty. Secondary source is used to collect information from books, journals, and other published materials. It is easy to reference and can be checked for validity of information on any time. With the advancement of internet world, secondary source has become quite common. Books and journals could be quite easily surfed for the purpose. The aim of research methodology was to present the analytical study on this research, and to bring out the research strategy and the techniques. Methodology was based on quantitative and qualitative research. For the quantitative study Bureau of Statistics of Pakistan’s official website has been visited and other such website mentioned in Appendixes C, demographic and statistical study was set on graph. 15 Both Research Designs i.e. Qualitative and Quantitative research are used for the purpose of study and Primary cum Secondary Sources were used for the collection of Data. DATA COLLECTION Data collected on basis of Primary cum Secondary sources For Primary sources, For Secondary Sources Books, Journals, Magazines, Research Reports, Articles, Opinions, Websites, Newspapers, Government Publications and Census were used. For quantitative study Bureau of Statics of Pakistan’s official website visited and other such websites are mentioned in Appendixes C. FOR REFERENCING Harvard style also known as author date system. Harvard style of referring was used for the bibliography; to avoid any sort of mistake in referencing website http://www.harvardgenerator.com/ was used. Literature was reviewed and careful observations were paid in selecting a reference. DATA ANALYSIS For Qualitative Research a Case Study Design was selected while for Quantitative Research a Longitudinal Design was used and both Dependent and Independent Variables were used. VARIABLE A concept that can be measured is called Variable for example one person say the program is effective while the other says the program is not effective DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CONCEPT AND VARIABLE Concepts are not measured (effectiveness, impact, excellent etc) concept can be measured if converted to a variable first (age, income, weight, height, population), thus first we will find indicators to convert concept into variable Example: Rich (concept), income, assets (indicators), income per year, total value of assets (boat, cat) and investment are variables, the variable converted from concept will be Rs 250000 etc. Types of Variable 1. Casual relationship 2. Study design 3. Unit of measurement 16 HYPOTHESIS A hypothesis was written in such a way that it can be proven or disproven by valid or reliable data. TESTING HYPOTHESIS There are three phases to test a hypothesis 1. Constructing hypothesis: This phase was done through proposal 2. Gathering data: This phase was done through the literature review mentioned in chapters Chapter N0. 2 and 3 3. Analyze the data: This phase has been covered in Chapter N0. 4 RESEARCH DESIGN A research design is a plan, structure, and strategy of investigation. TYPES OF RESEARCH DESIGN There are two types of research designs one quantitative and second is qualitative. LONGITUDINAL STUDY DESIGN IN QUALITATIVE It is useful to collect factual information on continuing basis It is useful for study of population It is good to ascertain changes in the study CASE STUDY DESIGN IN QUANTITATIVE A case study can be conducted on individual group, community, population, town, city, and on important case. DEPENDENT AND INDEPENDENT VARIABLES Smoking, the cause is independent variable, while cancer, the effect is the dependent variable, and other variables such as food, exercise and age of smoker are extraneous variables. ACTIVE AND ATTRIBUTIVE VARIABLES Variable can be changed, controlled and manipulated is called an active variable. While a variable can’t be changed, controlled and manipulated is called attributive variable 17 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY PAGE The Aims and Objectives of this study are related to economic developments, stability and its impact on the region especially Pakistan and China. An observation will be of means and methods of Federal Government in tackling hurdles in the way of the progress. U.S, Iran, Saudi Arabia and India have some regional concerns over growing influence of China. China has intentions beyond CPEC and these may cause hurdles in the progress and development. It is a fact that Economic instability leads to dependency and inflation. Gwadar Port would encourage import and export facilities for the federal government. Insecurity hampers the progress of revenue generation and Pakistan will protect it from the influence of non-state actors. Purpose of the study is to find out benefits of the project for the region and particularly for Pakistan, China and the region. Furthermore, to find out reservations of certain countries with special reference to countries like U.S, India, Iran and Saudi Arabia have concerns over it. Intentions of China beyond CPEC are important to be studied. Political stability and development of any country is depends on economic activities and economic projects. Gwadar port is a mega economic project. This study will provide beginners to cite references and learn from it. It will be beneficial for Economists and policy maker to take guidance from it, with regarding Gwadar Port and CPEC. It will also prove as a good source of qualitative and quantitative studies. The purpose is to disclose facts and figures about Gwadar and CPEC, whether it would be beneficial or not for us? 18 CHAPTER NO.1 1. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND Gwadar a Baluchi word, derived from “Gwat” means wind and “Dar” means gateway literally we call it “Gateway to Wind”, Gwadar was a small hamlet of fish mongers. Gwadar port is located in District Gwadar. The most important thing in Gwadar District is Gwadar port and has coastal highway from Lasbela to Gwadar. The infrastructural development and progress in Gwadar will make it one of the famous coastal cities in the world. District Gwadar is highly elevated from 0 to 930-meter altitude; there are four Tehsils and 13 Union Councils in District Gwadar. The tehsils are Gwadar, Jiwani, Ormara and Pasni, while Gwadar Tehsil is divided into four union council; Central Gwadar, Gwadar Southern, Gwadar Northern and Surbandar. The Climate is humid and mild, cold spells come to the Gwadar through Baluchistan Plateau summer is longer than winter, winter not remain harsh but pleasant. December and January are the months for annual rainfall. The area of Gwadar is also known as Kalat and Dasht valley. It is 400 hundred kms away from Strait of Hormuz. Its area is barren and less populated. We learn from history, the draught in the regime of Hazarat Dawood (AS) many people moved from Sina to Mukran. Alexander discovered this area when he was heading to Greece. His Admiral Nearchos docked ships here. Its close proximity with sea forced Alexander the Great captured it and handed it to his army General Seleukos Nikator as its ruler. In 303 BC Chundra Gupta of India captured it from Greece’s General and declared it as part of his government. In 712 AD Mohammad bin Qasim captured it and later on it also remained part of Mughal dynasty until it was not snatched by Portuguese. In 1581 Pasni and Gwadar was burnt by them (Portuguese). Bulaid and Kuch have also remained rulers. Bulaidi family got popularity when they embraced Zikri sect, Kuch were also Zikris. After these two families Mir Naseer Khan I (one) ruled and started trade of tusk, spices, and cloths. In 1783 the King of Muskat quarreled with his brother Sa’ad Sultan, who (the king) wrote him letter; Khan not only responded to 19 him but also devoted a chunk of revenue from Gwadar. In 1797 Sultan went back regained control on government after his death his son became King of Muskat, during these days Bulaidis again regained control over Gwadar and the son of King helped with army in getting back Gwadar to Khan. After, the first Afghan war in 1838 British paid heed to it in 1861 and it was occupied by major Gold Smith. Ships of British Indian steam Navigation started docking at Gwadar and Pasni. The Admiral of Alexander had observed the climate of Gwadar when he was leading a vessel in front of Makran coast and mentioned the area dry and mountainous, while the residents were fish eaters. Gwadar port is also named as Chinese Gibraltar by United States. The port has warm water, means it can be operated all the year and in every session either summer or winter. The coast line of the beloved homeland is in the south and covers 700 kms, of which 500 kms is covered by Makran coast (Gwadar port located) and 200 kms covered by Sindh coast(Karachi and Qasim port located). It receives wind from Arabian Sea (AS); it (AS) is 3.862 million squire meter. District Gwadar was part of Makran district before acquiring full status with Gwadar town as headquarter on 1st July 1977.Gwadar with 600 kilo-meters coastline and arid tracts of Dast and Kulanch valleys covers 307 square kms of area. It has always occupied prominent place in Makran history. Gwadar is part of Baluchistan province and shares coastline with Iran and bordering Afghanistan. People live under harsh weather conditions and scarcity of water. “The British systematically divided Balochistan into different parts. The western part was handed over to Iran in 1871(Goldsmid’s Line); the northern part to Afghanistan in 1893(Durand Line) …and the rest was divided into State of Kalat and three puppet principalities.” (Siddiqi, Kakar.2010, p.62) Khan of Kala with the previous King of Muscat had recaptured Gwadar and a government was installed by him appointing a governor. He got his daughter married with the prince of Muscat and she inherited Gwadar in dower. Actually, Gwadar is part of Makran history. Baluchistan liberation Army and other nationalist organization of Baluchistan are fighting for its liberation from Pakistan. There are some external powers supporting them in this cause. In future if rebellions and nationalists attack on such project (gas etc.) public will turn hostile to them and their indulgence and recruitment would halt and they will hate and dislike Nationalists. Nationalists would 20 be considered terrorist or enemy against their developments. Pathan and Baloch people migrated into Urban Areas of Sindh and Punjab for economic opportunities will move back, because same opportunities will be available for them in their own province. The project will resolve reservations of Baloch Nationalists that the Federal Government gain a lot from natural reserves of gas but meager finance has been given for development programs. Baluchistan a less populated province of Pakistan provides 60 percent of energy requirement to Pakistan. There are almost 200 coal mines and Sui gas discovered in 1952 facilitates Karachi, Hyderabad and Sukkur. The importance of this region came after Russian invasion in Afghanistan in 1979. American president Nixon called it “Zone of Instability.” (Goraya, Mazhar, Javiad.2012, p.114) it means the stability of this zone would maintain stability of the region. This is the reason that the center of activities against Russia was Baluchistan and so as CPEC (Gwadar Port) Baloch nationalist opposed One Unit and sought help from the communist bloc which could only assess them, government of Pakistan preserved Baluchistan from cession by dissolving One Unit and in 1971 declaring Provincial status for the province. Rikodeck is a huge reserve of 10 billion kg copper and 370 billion kg gold, it is also a source of misleading nationalist. The desire for exploration came from Israel and certain foreign mining companies approached Baloch Liberation Army to get their help in this regard. Gwadar port will make local masses free and self-dependent from the clenches of feudal lords. It is situated on Southwestern cost connected with Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. Alexander the Great had occupied Gwadar to enter into Iran, some 325 BC ago and he also found sea when he was heading to Macedonia. Aryan called it country of Lchthyophagi, Greeks rule ended by Chandragupta Maurya. In 712 AD Mohammad Bin Qasim captured it and other expeditions were also laid by Mughals (Eastern side) and Safavids (western side). Its geographical importance for Arabs came after 712 AD. Zikri sect of Islam presented by Mehdi Jaunpuri was its majority subjects in 15th century. Portuguese landed here and conquered Mukran coast. Even in 1581 AD Gwadar port was burnt by them. “When Muscat become British colony in 1802 AD British signed an agreement declaring Gwadar port as part of Oman. First telegraph line between India and Europe passed through Gwadar in 1868.” (Mehdi, Ekbal, Chaudri, Bhutt….2009, p.7) 21 History reveals that one’s India was too desirous for Gwadar to boost its maritime and enhance security, she attempted to acquire Gwadar but Pakistan foiled all Indian attempts to purchase it. On 8 December 1958 Gwadar port formally declared part of Pakistan. Pakistan inducted Gwadar into Baluchistan on 1 st July 1977 and officially opened on December 2, 2008. To get rid out of long sea routes, coastal areas are connected with land areas to reduce the distance. Its inhabitants are as old as Bronze’s age, Persian and Greeks had existence in this part. Baluchistan the largest province of Pakistan with respect to area of 3, 47,190 sq.kms and covers 44% in total. Sui is the gas field pays role in economy and commercial activities also located in the province. In 1964, Government of Pakistan declared Gwadar as Gwadar Port. Gwadar port will not only bring economic stability for Pakistan but would also leave its influence on the region. This influence will raise the importance of Gwadar for Pakistan and the region. Besides economy, world container traffic would also increase. According to a report by United Nations’ Review on Maritime Transport (2006) states that world traffic containers had keep on expanding at the rate of 12.6% (2004). The flow of resources from CARs to the world market through Gwadar will help Pakistan to generate tremendous revenue. “The long dormant project of 1,500 kilometers long Trans-Afghan Gas Pipeline (TAP) from Turkmenistan to Gwadar and other parts of Pakistan that hopes to pump Turkmen natural gas to global markets is also poised to step off the drawing board after completion of the port project.”(Ammad, H.2005, p.17) Stability in Afghanistan can make it possible “China’s contact with the outside world began in the Han dynasty when China established connections with Jib in (Kashmir, the sub-continent part of South Asia) by Silk Route”. (Umbreen, Jahangir.2012, p.159) the Relations of China with Pakistan have always remained cordial. These relations began in 1954 but the chaos between the two countries over communist and capitalist blocs thus; they couldn’t make such a progress as it’s presently. In 1954 and 1955 Pakistan singed two agreements on South East Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) and Central Treaty Organization (CENTO). Under accord Pakistan had to support America against Russia and China to resist Communist influence to reach South Asia and it resulted in rift. Pakistan cleared all the doubts produced in response of agreement. Indeed, Pakistan had signed against India for military and equipment 22 assistance from US. Pakistan voted and supported China for the seat of Security Council. In 1963 China fought fierce war against India, the war paved way for “All Weather Friendship”. China favors Pakistan in case of Kashmir dispute even as permanent member of Security Council. In 1959 Ayub Khan’s statement over Tibet raised suspensions in the Chinese mind but after the accord signed in 1963 by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and India’s foreign Secretary S.K. Dehlavi the relations were restored. China not only helped Pakistan in the war of 1965 but also supported with military equipment, missiles, nuclear program and even during sanctions imposed on Pakistan. Such a friendship is the only reason for this mega project and huge investment in Gwadar. 2. GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE “Gwadar district is located from 24o06’N’latitudes to62o20’1E longitudes. It is bounded on the north by Kech and Awaran districts, on the east by Awaran and Lasbela districts, on the south by the Arabian Sea, and on the west by Iran. Total area of the district is 15,216 square kilometers.” (Hamid.1997, p.3-4) It is 18 meter (46 ft.) deep port. It is 650 kms in theWest of Karachi. Table 1 National Ports Depth in Meter International Ports Depth in Meter Karachi 10 Singapore 21 Qasim 12 Hong Kong 10 Gwadar 18 UAE 16 ----- ----- Chabahar 11 Sources: different sources, newspaper, articles As compared to Karachi, Qasim, Hong Kong and UAE ports, Gwadar is the deepest except the port of Singapore. With regard to Pakistan, Gwadar is on first in line with other ports, Gwadar is deepest it means that heavy S-type ships can be docked; here heavy means more goods than common ships. If we compare Gwadar with the other big ports, we find it deepest than those compared in this table. Gwadar will link China through Indus highway (N-55) along with Karakoram Highway. It will provide shortest distance from Hormuz to China than Karachi and 23 Qasim Port. This geostrategic location would help Pakistan to maintain close eyes on heading ships from Hormuz. It shares 72km border with Iran in the west, 320 km away of Cape al Hadd (Oman), 400km from Strait Hormuz a trade zone from where 40% of the world oil passes facing Gulf of Oman. There are only three ports which can compete with Gwadar transit trade. These ports are Bandar Abbas, Chabahar and Karachi port. From Ashgabat to Gwadar the road link is 2565 kms, from Ashgabat to Chabahar is 2304 km and the distance from Ashgabat to Bandar Abbas is 2401 km thus Gwadar will face disadvantage of 261 kilometers from Ashgabat to Chabahar and164 kilometer to port Bandar Abbas. Hence transit trade from Turkmenistan via Gwadar can be affected. The port will be beneficial for Uzbekistan; the advantage can be gauged from distance between Tashkent and other ports. From Tashkent to Gwadar the road link is 2912 km, From Tashkent to Chabahar is 3110 km and the distance from Tashkent to Bandar Abbas is 3178 km thus Gwadar will gain advantage of 198 kilometers from Ashgabat to Chabahar and 266 kilometers than port Bandar Abbas. It will also provide benefit to Tajikistan with the advantage of 281 km than 213 km from Chabahar and Bandar Abbas. “If we see this whole region, it is like a funnel. The top of the funnel is this wide area of Central Asia and also China’s western region. And this funnel gets narrowed on through Afghanistan and Pakistan and at the end of this funnel is Gwadar port. So this funnel, futuristically, is the economic funnel of this whole region.” (Raja, M., Saif-urRehman.2013, p.38) The importance of Gwadar was realized during the Musharaf regime. His statement reveals the importance of Gwadar and its regional connectivity. It can bring Central Asia, West China and Afghanistan into its economical fold. It would cater the energy needs of these regional countries. The port is like a funnel, the funnel becomes narrow at its opening to the Persian Gulf. Central Asia, Afghanistan and Western part of China are land locked with the gateway at Gwadar. They can enter and exit or in the other sense they can import and export from this gateway. Hu Jintao the former President of China asked Musharaf to speed up the process of investment and later on Mr. Hu revisited Pakistan and endorsed close cooperation by signing Free Trade 24 Agreement (FTA).The trade increased from $1bn(1998) to $15.15 (2015) in billions. This enhanced cooperation resulted in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor. “This region has great geographical significance in the subcontinent and China’s historical commercial associations vis-à-vis ancient Chinese Silk Route. The Chinese trade convoys while travelling through Xinjiang and traversing Ladakh and Gilgit, came into presentday Pakistan (on the western side) for financial transactions.” (Umbreen, Jahangir.2012, p.159) Karakoram had been linked with Silk Route under CPEC; the road would be upgraded and connected with all provinces of Pakistan including Kashmir and Gilgit. Questions were raised by Gilgitians over the route of CPEC crossing Gilgit. Same question had also been raised by India claiming that G.B is part of Kashmir, a controversial and disputed territory and Pakistan has no authority (India claims). While, India is building dams and other constructions are being done in occupied Kashmir. India wants to see Pakistan economically backward. CPEC and Silk Route are indeed part of One Belt and One Road (OBOR), both will contribute in attaining Chinese commercial purposes. Gwadar will bring economic and financial transactions for Pakistan. It will connect to oil rich region which is far from India. Silk Road Economic Belt has five proposed objectives. 1. Policy 4. Currency Circulation 2. 5. People’s Exchange Friendship 3. Road Network “Gwadar, THE DOOR OF WIND, has huge potential to be developed as a gateway to the economy of Pakistan. Its presence at the convergence of three most commercially important regions of the world, i.e. Oil Rich Middle East, Central Asia bestowed with natural resources and South Asia having potential for growth, makes it one of the well-placed ports for the development of global trade.” (cophc.2015) 25 3. DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE Demographically according to 2017, 6thcensus, its population is 263514. It has two subdivisions i.e. Gwadar and Pasni. According to census report of 2017, its literacy rate is only 25.47% percent. The annual growth rate per annum in average was 1.86(1998) to 2017.The sources of employment, economy and livelihood are fishing at Gwadar port. For statics see table 2. District Gwadar Population Census, 6th 2017 Table 2 Population 300000 263514 250000 200000 161599 141771 150000 121728 101915 88212 100000 73373 53559 48355 39922 50000 1 14 15 17275 22647 0 Population Male Rural Female Urban Total Transgender Household Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics To compare the difference between the two censuses, we need to know about population of Gwadar under 5thcensus in 1998. Demographically according to 1998 census, its population was 53,772. It has two subdivisions i.e. Gwadar and Pasni. 54 percent of population lives in Gwadar, Pasni, Jawani and Ormara. According to the census report of 1998, its literacy rate was only 25 percent. The sources of employment, economy and livelihood are fishing at Gwadar port. For statistics see table 3, on next page. 26 Table 3 Population 100152 53,772 35,279 Gwadar Pasni 16,860 Jawani 85346 13,790 Ormara Urban Rural 54.0% 64.0% Town Villages Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics census 1998 Major Ethnic group of the district Gwadar is Baloch. Balochi is also first language of the people. Fruit, fodder, water Melon, vegetables, wheat and pulses are the major crops in district Gwadar. For livestock people rely on sheep & goats, draught, animals, cattle and camels. Fort Saiad Sultan is used as police station and it is still good in condition. Only 3.4 percent of the area comes under cultivation and rest of the 70% is non-cultivatable. Such a huge waste of 70% results in resources exploitation. The district also has some forest areas and local people use wood as fuel for their livelihood and for domestic purpose. 4. DEVELOPMENT SINCE PARTITION “Gwadar is most likely to be developed by China because Pakistan is probably the only state where the level of trust between the two countries is high enough to make that completely reliable prospect.” Andrew Small “On 1st July 1970, when one unit was dissolved and Baluchistan gained the status of a province, Makran became one of its 8 districts. On 1st July 1977, Makran was declared a division and was divided into three districts, named Panjgur, Turbat (renamed Kech) and Gwadar. Gwadar was notified as a district on July 1, 1977 with its headquarters at Gwadar town.” (Hamid.1997, p.2) Worth Condrick in 1954 was appointed by US to conduct survey on Baluchistan Coast. He recommended upgrading it. Oman had been controlling the port for last 200 hundred years which came to an end in 1958. Gwadar port site was discovered in 1964. In 1993, the government started to look for its feasibilities but the work started 27 in 2001 when China agreed to construct it. Karachi and Qasim ports were vulnerable, an alternative operational port was needed and its importance came after Indian attack on Karachi port Complex in 1971. Gwadar, 460 km away from Karachi will have to serve in an emergency and even Sindh ports hindered. “The area surrounding Gwadar port (South Asia and the Middle East) has historically witnessed power struggle and confrontation starting with the exploitation by colonial powers, and in the recent era, control by super powers to satisfy their strategic motives.” (Ammad, H.2005, p.6) This is the reason why Russia had invaded Afghanistan with the intention to dismantle nuclear arsenals and acquire coastal areas to continue her trade. Harsh cold winds hinder the trade facilities of Russia on her sea route and it takes several months to cover the distance on sea and reach strait of Hormuz for importation.“Hub and Spoke System” provide base for Hub port, it is a system of physical distribution. It is easy to collect numerous trades and distribute them for spokes which means small ports and land cargo. On 7 December 1958 the government of Prime Minister Faroz Khan Noon purchased it from Oman in 3 million pounds. “In 1991 Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif decided to transform this coastal area into sea trade. Benazir’s second government also worked on Gwadar but slowly. In July 1997, in his second reign Nawaz Sharif initiated a project to convert Gwadar into a port city, for the purpose he invested Rs: 24 billion including this via Ormara, Athal and Hub through “Gwadar to Karachi” highway was also part of this project. Gwadar received its final assent from Komi Iktisadi Council (National Economic Council) on 14 May 1999.” (Shaikh, W, nd. p.81) Federal Minister Nadir Pervaiz was sent to China to discuss project on Gwadar with Chinese government which resulted in signing of the first phase of Gwadar by Gwadar Development Cell and China Harbor Engineering Corporation on 16 September 1999. “The Benazir government, in its second tenure, developed a fishermen's village on the peninsula of Gwadar and one in Pasni with cold storage facilities and a market for the fishermen to sell their catch to contractors. The fishermen also built their houses and small jetties for their boats and trawlers 28 in Gwadar. All Baloch stakeholders welcomed it, as it gave an impetus for local economic and social sector development.” (Shaikh, A.R.2009, p.23) This development brought ample opportunities for these fishermen now they could directly earn more livelihood from fishing. Local people came first to acquire jobs and high authorities felt comfortable with locals than outsiders because of cheap accommodation. Gwadar Port staff consists of natives and non-natives, natives were being managed by Gwadar Development Authority (GDA) and non-natives by Port of Singapore Authority (PSA). PSA worker were paid high wages than those in PDA. Port of Singapore Authority was running Gwadar port. GPA does not hire foreigners; PSA workers worked as dockhands, lumper (labour who loads and unloads vessels) arrangements under PSA were the similar to that of Trading Corporation of Pakistan. Baluchi people can directly invest and generate income despite there are some elements directly involved against this project and interests of common masses. Gul Bhushan Jadev an Indian spy agent arrested by security forces on 3 March 2016 near Mashkhel Baluchistan. His confessional statement discloses the fact regarding Indian involvement in anti-Baluchistan elements against Pakistan. He claimed that he was sent on a mission to spoil the peaceful environment of Karachi and Baluchistan. A few nationalists threatened China to stay way form Gwadar, in response to this blackmailing Xi Jimping visited Pakistan in April 2015 to create a contingent of 12,000 forces to protect China stance on Gwadar and provide security to it, later Pakistan set up Special Security Division fully funded by Pakistan and only some equipment will be provided by China. Indian attitude towards Gwadar is not suitable for CPEC and China’s ambition to reach Asia and Europe. Islamabad government claims are true, Indian by funding anti Pakistan’s separatist and nationalist are against the sovereignty and national integrity of Pakistan is trying to mislead the masses for the provinces. The port will increase the demand for products. It connects inside and outside the region. 29 5. RUSSIAN INVASION In 1954 and 1955 respectively, two important treaties were signed (SEATO and SENTO) under these pacts Iran, Turkey and Pakistan were not allowed to give Russia an access to their warm waters and to acquire their port facilities. Russia was not allowed to use Arabian Sea and Mediterranean Sea. It was the policy and strategy of US that if Russia was allowed, it would become difficult to tackle on. In 1979 Russia invaded Afghanistan. “The Russian dream of reaching the hot waters was painful for Pakistan, because after Afghanistan the next target was Pakistan so Pakistan decided to defeat Russian plans.” (Syed.2016, p.3) three important factors behind this incursion are very essential. First Russian was to halt and dismantle Pakistan’s nuclear program. In 1971 Karachi Nuclear Power Plant had already been installed Secondly, it had desire for warm waters to reach Persian Gulf to import oil and trade, which could only be possible through Baluchistan’s dilute populous Gwadar at the mouth of Strait of Hormuz. Thirdly Gwadar could make Gulf region’s 60% oil resources, mineral resources and catch fish of Indian Ocean and Antarctica for Russia to boost her economy. Fourthly, Gulf currently satisfying energy requirements but once the deposits of it would dry up after a short period of 35 to 50 years, estimation. These sources of Central Asian countries, Iran and Afghanistan would replace Gulf; hence Russia could have controlled this emerging Gulf. With installation of Gwadar port, the long-awaited dream of Russia has come into reality now Russia is going to benefit from this port and would be able to approach warm water. As Russia is on the North and suffers her sea trade to due cold water in sea and environment on earth. China had already invested in a link highway to connect its side with Karakoram to the Russian built highway network; this Russian highway also links with five Central Asian states. After the cold war Russia broke into several states, these states are still dependent on Russia for their trade. They can access to warm water by two possible routes. One through Iran via Chabahar port and second via Gwadar port, Gwadar would be most feasible and accessible for CARs due to its qualities of shortest route secured, highly invested and feasibility. A sign board installed at Ghulam Khan Pak Afghan border shows kms distance Moscow 4798km, Ashgabat 1753km, Tashkent 1414km, Dushanbe 860 and Kabul 277km, which means CARs and Russia are connected regionally. Gwadar port would 30 serve up as a hub for commercial traffic for South Asia, Central Asia, Middle East and Western China. Central Asia is rich in natural resources as compared to South Asia so this project will be helpful to import oil and gas from Central Asia as well as Gwadar port engulfs three important parts of the world. West of Asia is rich in Oil, South Asia with denser population and Central Asia with natural resources. Baluchistan will provide expansion of economic ties and cooperation with Central Asian Countries. Pakistan is not directly connected with CARs but can contact with, through Wakhan Strip, which is 20 km from Pakistan. Wakhan controlled by Afghanistan and CARs can only be contacted through Afghanistan and China because Tajikistan shares a border with them. If on any stage Afghanistan does not permit Pakistan to use Wakhan as an access than the route through China would be feasible for her. “It was thought initially that the Gwadar Port will serve only Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan via Afghanistan due to geographically proximity.” (Takreem.2013, p.219) Distance difference among Gwadar, Chabahar and Bandar Abbas to Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan is given below table 4, the port will serve up Kygyzstan, Kazakstan and Afghanistan through economic zones set up at Gwadar and Kashgar in China, regional proximity will facilitate. Table 4 Port Uzbekistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Gwadar 2912 (Gwadar to Tashkent) 2246 (Gwadar to Dushanbe) 2565 (Gwadar to Ashgabat) Chabhaha r 3110 (ChabhahartoTashkent) 2459 (Chabhahar Dushanbe) Bandar Abbas 3178 (B.Abbas to Tashkent) 2527 (B.Abbas to Dushanbe) to 2304 (Chabhahar Ashgabat) to 2401(B.Abbas to Ashgabat) From above mentioned figures, we can conclude that Gwadar shall be able to provide shortest route than Chabahar and Bandar Abbas only to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan except Turkistan. The mere distance differences are 198 km and 213 km than Chabahar, these kilometers are beneficial to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and 266 km and 281 km than Bandar Abbas, are beneficial to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. 31 6. KARAKORAM HIGHWAY PROJECT K2 or China Friendship highway runs 1300 km from Hassan Abdal to Uygur’s Xinjiang province. It is highly elevated and reaches 4,714-meter-high altitude; due to this proximity it is famous as Eight Wonder of the World. The construction work begun in 1959 but in 1979 it was resorted for public. This N-35 highway connects GT road and N-5(Hassan Abdal located). The route of K2 highway touches one of the various paths of Silk Road. As stated that N-35 connects with Silk Route, it means that Pakistan and China can use this road for communication with Europe and Central Asia and can directly import and export goods and commodities to European countries. One thing is essential to be mentioned here i.e. China bypassing Pakistan can direct transport such imported and exported material to Europe without landing on its soil. Thirty-Eight-year-old constructed road has been upgraded to boost its infrastructure and provide feasibility for CPEC. Under CPEC US $46 billion later rose to US $60 billion project known as China Pakistan Economic Corridor is also going to invest in Karakoram for road connectivity with Gwadar to Kashgar. Why K2 Highway is part of CPEC? Answer to this is easy; with the developments in Gwadar and heavy traffic requires the need for its up gradation. “The Special Committee of Senate on China-Pakistan Economic Corridor in its third interim report has raised concern over inadequate width of the Karakoram Highway (KKH) to cater to future traffic volume to be generated by the CPEC.” (Syed.2016, p.289). It is good than nothing, even then it would be insufficient. The width of the road is not in accordance with the width of containers. The narrow path of it easily blocks due to landslides. After some time, the government felt to reconstruct it to cater the Chinese needs, Russia and Central Asian States. This route will also serve as shortest possible route to deploy forces or exchange security personals with one another. Due to the visual sighting of Gilgit only small aircraft like ATR42 will move down on anther hand it would be a dangerous condition for aircraft like B737 to land safely. It is busy so should be maintained well because when it reaches Munsehra it looks like a road constructed for villages and causes loss to vehicles. The work under CPEC is in progress, first phase of Karakoram highway finished in 2013 A.D while the second part started in September 2016 and would finish in February 2020 A.D. 32 7. PORT SINGAPORE AUTHORITIES Government of Nawaz Sharif Muslim League (N) announced that China agreed to invest billion dollars in Pakistan and the investment was named as China Pakistan Economic Corridor. In 2015 this project was signed and it disclosed that it will include railroad and energy projects. The project became spectacle in 2013 when Pakistan government handed the construction work of Gwadar to Chinese Port Holding Company. General Pervez Musharaf had singed concession accord for 40 years with PSA. It was $750 million agreement. Due to the security issues GDA stop investment under the accord and Governor of Baluchistan filled a petition in opposition to the allotments of land to PSA Company. These two events frustrated PSA and it decided to quit it. After, Chinese took the control, following projects under the CPEC set up. Table 5 No: Project Name Estimated Cost in million 1 Gwadar East-Bay Expressway $140.60 2 New Gwadar International Airport 230.00 3 Construction of Breakwaters 123.00 4 Dredging of berthing areas & channels 27.00 5 Development of Free Zone 32 6 Necessary facilities of fresh water treatment, water supply and 130.00 distribution 7 Pak China Friendship Hospital 100 8 Technical and Vocational Institute at Gwadar 10.00 Sources: cpec.gov.pk 33 8. IMPORTANCE OF GWADAR PORT “It is He who enables you to travel on land and sea until, when you are in ships and they sail with them by a good wind and they rejoice therein, there comes a storm wind and the waves come upon them from everywhere and they assume that they are surrounded, supplicating Allah, sincere to Him in religion, If You should save us from this, we will surely be among the thankful.” (Quran, Ch: 10, V: 22) Water is the hub of human activities since the inception of humanity on the earth. No men can survive without water, like wise no country can trade without sea routes. Men assembled around sea areas for fishing and sea food for livelihood in ancient times but now a day they travel and do business activities for economic purposes on sea for survival, intra and ultra-regional connectivity. Countries can be divided as land locked and sea locked, those countries have no sea and surrounded by land around are called land locked countries while those who have sea or coast are called sea locked and engulfed by the sea. Countries bestowed with sea have high values than those deprived from this grace. Land locked countries tends to ally with these countries and maintain good relations. With the grace of Almighty Allah Pakistan is bestowed with Arabian Sea on its south. There are three main ports on this coastline. Two of them (Qasim and Karachi) are in Sindh and one (Gwadar) is in Baluchistan. The port Gwadar has been attracting many investors. Gwadar has quality of warm water and depth; it can dock S-Type ship. Gwadar is the second in world with respect to depth we have already mentioned depth differences in table 1. Chabahar the competing port with it has no such depth to dock at heavy loaded S-Type Ships. All weather friends have been investing billion dollars on this all-weather port. For centuries Gwadar had been in control of Oman had been using this port for lodging ships. While, populous of Gwadar were dependent on fishing for livelihood. Later, it was held suitable for port, during the assistance of China it was upgraded to port. Now it has gained fame all over the world due to gigantic investment by China under CPEC. Gwadar will be used an alternative port to provide shortest route to China, it will connect Chinese Xingjian with Gwadar in Baluchistan. It will save cost and time for China. China will be free from Strait of Malacca and it will foment her claim on 34 nine dash line which she claims as her. It will be able to resolve conflict with countries demanding share on South China Sea. Gwadar will reduce the distance from 10,000 km to 4500 kms, how can Gwadar of Pakistan lack behind from its collective benefits? “Government of Pakistan declared that Gwadar is special economic zone as a duty-free port. A road from Gwadar to Saindak provides shortest route to Central Asian Republics. Gwadar port gave access to land locked countries of Afghanistan and Central Asian Republics to deep water. Gwadar port transformed consumer goods, oil and gas resources from landlocked countries to global markets. Gwadar port will reduce the distance between Central Asian Republic, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and China. Gwadar deep sea port is also called regional hub because it is located in center of Middle East, Persian Gulf, South East Asia, Afghanistan, Central Asian Republics, and Iran. Gwadar port provides trade links with Central Asian Countries, Persian Gulf, United Arab Emirates, east Africa, and North West India. Gwadar Port Project has become another milestone in Pakistan and China friendship. PakChina friendship is higher than Himalaya deeper than Indian Ocean and sweeter than honey. On 15 March 2008, Gwadar port was inaugurated. Gwadar port will also increase the job opportunity in Baluchistan and improve their living status.” (Kataria, Anum.2014, p.405-406) The question here arises that why was Gwadar Port needed? The answer to this question is so simple, when Russia collapsed after the cold war and new CARs state developed; they needed energy resources beyond Russia. This dream could only be possible by connecting CARs with Gwadar in Pakistan or Chabahar in Iran. Gwadar Port would provide feasible and accessible route to CARs to purchase oil from Persian Gulf.China has chosen Gwadar because 90% of the world transport passes through sea route. It will provide shortest route to China if China purchases oil from Gulf States and chooses sea route. China will have to travel 10,000 km by passing from the Indian Ocean. The shortest and accessible route for China would be Gwadar. Due to the connectivity of Gwadar with Xinxiang, Its GDP will increase. 35 Gas is imported and exported via pipelines. Growing threats to Middle East from Islamic State Iraq-o-Sham (ISIS) well known as Daesh in the age of growing demands for gas and oil also contributes in increasing the importance of Gwadar port. Pakistan singed a mutual agreement with Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and India known as TAPI. The project was signed during the visit of president of Turkmenistan. The progress in this regard suspended due to the political instability in Pakistan specially the sitting (Dharna) of PTI and flood in Kashmir in 2014, the visit of Chinese premier was also rescheduled. It is clear that Gwadar is hub for economic activities and to boost regional trade and regional connectivity has vital importance in this era of development and construction. The project would protect TAPI (2700 km) and Pakistan, Iran and India (760 km) gas pipelines attacks. “Its location is close to the international SLOCs and is suitable for trans-shipment facilities. It is farthest from Pakistan’s eastern neighbor and thus provides more warning time against air and naval threat. It offers natural protection against weather. It is more suitable for capitalizing trade opportunities with energy rich Afghanistan and Caspian Region. To give access for the development potential of heartland Gwadar Port being a gateway to the Persian Gulf at the Hormuz Strait will offer various harbor services like show casing and storage of sea resources, shipment, trans-shipment, and manufacturing conveniences for regional, extra regional key players, UAE and European nations.” (Malik.H.2012, p.59) Port Qasim and Karachi were vulnerable to India due to their proximity but the case with Gwadar is adverse and far from such attacks. Pakistan will use both the ports as security watch dogs over India. Cold winds blow from Central Asia are resisted by mountainous areas of Pakistan. Freezing winds from Indian and Arabian Sea intercepted by Karakorum and Himalayas, these winds cause rain in Pakistan including Gwadar. It is essential for Afghanistan and Caspian region to invest in this seasonal environment. Despite all such qualities Gwadar would also serve as warehouse and storeroom for regional countries to provide makeshift for their goods and commodities. For example, previously this port had been used till 1858 by Oman for docking. Similarly, India, Iran, Afghanistan, Oman and other Northern and Southern countries could dock at Gwadar in bad climatic seasons or monsoon. 36 It will provide vacuum to one 100,000 containers and 300000 cargo tons and 500000 tons of grains. “With the development of Gwadar port, all trade to and from CARs is definite to adopt the shortest available route via Gwadar and the trade benefits of Pakistan are expected to multiply. The proven reserves and production will have following implications on Gwadar Port. Estimated production of dry cargo is more than liquid cargo, which means larger ships and deep-sea port will prove better. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan will produce more dry cargo than other CARs and Gwadar will prove to be the shortest access to warm waters. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan having more liquid cargo can export it through pipelines and can have an alternate route to Mediterranean Sea through Caspian Region which is about 1800 km long route whereas through Gwadar it will be only 1400 km long. Route to Mediterranean Sea passes through Russia which is a point of concern for Europe, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. European nations are striving to reach this mineral rich region through Caspian Region earlier than other key players through Gwadar and Afghanistan.” (Malik.H.2012, p.59) A delegation from Kazakhstan (Mr. Georgiy Dubovtsev), Kyrgyz Republic (Mr. Baidoletov Nuradil Esenbekovich), Tajikistan (Mr. Khudaberdi Kholiqnazar), and from Uzbekistan (Mr. Ikramov Adham Ilhamovich) visited to Pakistan in March 2018 to seek enhancement cooperation in trade. State Bank of Pakistan provided during the fiscal year 2018 Pakistan volume in trade with CARs stood at $58.4 million while import volume reached at $7.718 million. Both CARs and Pakistan has high expectation from CPEC. Among the Central Asian Countries Kazakhstan is the largest partner in trading with Pakistan. There are certain barriers other than regional connectivity between the region and Pakistan as stated by Federal Sectary for Commerce for Pakistan Dhaga Younas “No direct flights and cargo link between Pakistan and Central Asia, visa issues, non-tariff barriers, and language and communication issues are the barriers to increasing trade with Central Asia.” Beside the regional importance it is also important for real estate business. “The title “Gwadar's largest commercial scheme” Al-Noor cargo city holds this distinct. Al-Noor cargo city is also known as Gwadar's first strategic commercial scheme. Al-Noor cargo city is situated in the mid of Gwadar airport and Gwadar sea port. It has one-kilometer wide front on the 205ft wide 37 main Baluchistan Broadway and 150ft wide Existing coastal highway. AlNoor Cargo City gives an eye-catching stance to both local and international investors due to its strategic location. In addition, just 1500 yards’ distance to Deep Sea East Bay gives another edge to Al-Noor Cargo City.” (alnoorgwadar.com) Al Noor will provide commercial Hub which will be governed by GDA. Electricity, Water Supply, Gas & Telephone Facility including treatment and sewerage system would be provided. SP Noor Enterprises (Pvt) Ltd set up by Hoot family in year 2005. The family, it also bears a prevalent position in Baluchistan and Gwadar. “SP Noor Enterprises (Pvt) Ltd. is involved in various business activities in Gwadar city including real estate, seafood trading, construction and agriculture. Niazi Group and SP Noor Enterprises have signed multiple ventures for various (micro/macro) developments/ projects in Gwadar City.” (alnoorgwadar.com) the city is located between Gwadar Port and Airport; it is feasible for citizens with respect to travel and trade near sea. GDA is handling scheme of this port city. Purpose of this is to build commercial hub for port facilities. Off course basic facilities such as gas, electricity, and water shall be available for citizens. GDA to control ecology and beautification of the large areas has been left for the purposes. “Pakistan lies at the intersection of big powers’ rivalries and politics. It is physically accessible to a number of big powers. Consequently, any development in Pakistan that has an impact on the security and viability of that country will inevitably attract the attention of a number of external powers. These powers are China, the Soviet Union [now Russia], Iran, and Afghanistan. If these powers get actively interested in the developments in that country, it is not likely that the United States, as the largest power in the world and a military ally of Pakistan, will lie low and keep away from the area.” (Subrahmanyam, K.1974, p.71) the security of Afghanistan and Gwadar is interconnected, to hold grip on security and environment and in this connection regional powers set up Co-ordilatral Coordination Group to sort out issues of Afghanistan, and to deal with terrorism in Afghanistan. 38 Why America is so much interested in peace for Afghanistan? Answer prop up in mind that because Pakistan has regional proximity with gulf’s and Central Asian’s energy resources. “Responding the question from Urooj Raza, Dr. Ahsan Iqbal replied to that when energy crisis will be resolved and electricity will be sufficient its general benefit would reach to the public. Economy would be boosted and those factories working on half capacity would work on full capacity definitely when they will work on high capacity they would hire more people. Anew factories will be set up in Pakistan. Agriculture production will also increase. These are the indicatives to provide ample job opportunities to the youngsters. During the construction many jobs will be there for locals.” (Iqbal, A.2016) The purpose of Gwadar is not only to upgrade or construct new road for passage but it would increase wages. It will provide human capital or labour to industries. New industries and factories would be set up along the road being constructed under CPEC. Real estate will also increase on CPEC routes passing through provinces, in nutshell construction and job opportunities will have for us from South of Pakistan to North. The importance of Gwadar can also be gauged from distance formula, the distance of Shanghai from the Strait of Hormuz to Strait of Malacca route and from Kashgar to Shanghai capital will be feasible and shortest. The port will make Pakistan less dependent on West. Gwadar is also attractive for real estate business; upper and lower classes can invest in. 30,000 job opportunities will be generated for natives. Trade and Economy show the strength of any country as compare to military, trade is done through sea and earns economy for the state. Coastal countries are considered powerful than land locked, international relations with these countries are direly needed. India shall be able to facilitate from this port only via Wagha border and Khokra Pak even Pakistan in 2010 had allowed India to access through it but India refused the offer due to some hue and cry over the route. Gwadar port shall be used as naval base claimed by India and United Sates; the fact revealed when China handed over two submarines for the security of the port indeed it will provide deposits and warehouses of oil and gas to countries. 39 In the end, “The strategic significance of Gwadar could not be ignored for both Pakistan and China. It would make Pakistan enable to enjoy a strategic depth southwest from its naval base in Karachi that had long been susceptible to obstruction by the Indian Navy. The establishment of Naval Bases at Gwadar and Ormara by Pakistan along with the existence of Chinese Naval installations there would be helpful to check the domination of U.S Naval Fleet at Persian Gulf and Indian ambition to emerge as a Blue Water Navy. It would also establish Pak-China naval nexus to reject maneuvering space to Indian Navy and would make maritime communications safer for commercial transportation in Indian sea.” (Makhdoom, Basit, Khan.2014, p.187) Pakistan has already received eight nuclear submarines from China. International airport at Gwadar will open new horizons. 9. Gwadar’s Trade Forecast Table 6 Category Year 2005 Year 2010 Year 2015 Dry Cargo (Million tons) 3.96 4.74 5.77 Liquid Cargo (Million tons) 16.62 17.54 18.77 Container (1000 TEUs) 200 241 295 Transshipment (1000 TEUs) 200 250 300 Source: Board of Investment (Government of Pakistan) 40 CHAPTER NO 2: CHINA PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR PART ONE: CHINA PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR 1. A BRIEF INTRODUCTION TO CPEC “Our relations are based on the shared ideals and principles of mutual trust, mutual benefit and mutual respect”, said Nawaz Sharif. (BBC.2015) CPEC has been shaped by National Development of Reforms Commission of China and Planning Commission of Pakistan jointly. The idea of CPEC came in Feb, 2013 when Pakistan decided to hand over the contract from Port Singapore Authority to China Overseas Port Holdings; in 2007 Musharaf held its inauguration and handed the port to Port Singapore Authority. Bilal Musharaf son of former president Musharaf had also hand in this project. Due to the pressure from America, India and Gulf states PSA could not make it fully commercial. For seven years it was used for transshipment of fertilizers. Government of Pakistan gave subsidy on fertilizers so it has to give subsidy in million rupees. In June 2014, Pakistan cancelled the 40-years contract with PSA due to Chinese interest in Gwadar thus port was given to China. “Expediting the process, both countries constituted a Joint Cooperation Committee for the CPEC headed by Ahsan Iqbal, the Pakistan Federal Minister for Planning, Development and Reforms and Zhang Xiaoqiang, the Vice Chairman of China’s National Development and Reforms Commission. The first meeting of this Joint Committee was held on 27 August 2013 in Islamabad.” (Rajan.2015, p.4) On 28 July 2017 the verdict of the Supreme Court of Pakistan against former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on Panama scandal, although ministries and ministers were replaced Ahsan Iqbal is still headed this ministry of development and reforms. The real purpose of CPEC has been told in many seminars and his interview on different occasions. What is CPEC? It can best be understood from an interview with 41 Urooj Raza, former Federal Minister for Planning and Development Dr. Ahsan Iqbal described CPEC in these words. “CPEC is in accordance with the vision of Chinese and Pakistani Leadership. One Belt One Road is the vision of Chinese leadership, in which they want to integrate China into International market especially in West with Europe, Asia and Africa. For that purpose they have given the concept of Sea and land route. When we for the progress of Pakistan made the vision ‘2025’, we defined seven pillars of it. The seventh pillar of it is based on geographical location of Pakistan. If we look at the location of Pakistan, it’s connected, in center with South Asia, Central Asia, Chine and East Asia. If we develop regional connectivity then Pakistan in this whole region where three billion of population lives in, can play central role…. Four different sectors are being selected of which first sector is of Energy because of Pakistan has dire need for it. Our economy cannot flourish without development in Energy sector. 70% of the CPEC project would be invested in Energy Sector. Second important part of this project is Gwadar Port because it is the source to connect with China so infrastructure and an airport would be constructed at Gwadar. The third is Infrastructure, Rail and Road connectivity. Communication would be developed through Gwadar to Khunjrab. We agreed on three routes. One is western route which will start from Gwadar, Sohrab, Quetta, Zob, Dera Ismail Khan and Peshawar to Khunjrab. Second is central route which will go from Gwadar to Khuzdar, RatoDaro and far and away. Third is Eastern route from Khuzdar, Lahore and Islamabad to Khunjrab. These are the only three routes. With this our rail network between Peshawar and Karachi, will be upgraded in the first stage. In this project of ML-1(main line) will be upgraded and modernized including from Karachi to Peshawar then the speed of this train would be 140 km/h. 42 Map 1 Source: http://www.cpec.gov.pk/map-single/1 Countries, desire to plan to go further is the result of CPEC. Pakistan is adhering to ‘Look East’ while China wants to ‘Go west’ both adherences are inversely proportional with fruits. China and Pakistan proclaimed to improve access to markets thus the aim of this economic corridor is to relate China’s Kashgar with Pakistani Gwadar Port, why this is so? Because, two out of six corridors are very important BCIM economic corridor and CPEC, BCIM will connect with North East of India through Yunnan province in west of China, it will also join Myanmar and Bangladesh. The project is part of China’s Marching Westwards Policy and One Belt and One Road (OBOR), Chinese foreign policy initiative had been articulated by Xi Jumping’s visit to Pakistan. Before going to start such initiatives China first set up Asian Development Bank to give loan and finance to build road, rail links and other means of communication to ensure connectivity with developing countries of Asia. CPEC is name of land route which connect China with Pakistan through Kashgar and Gwadar. Under this project rail, road, and airport will be constructed to import and export Chinese goods. Government of Pakistan set up GDA (Gwadar Development Authority) and PDA (Port Development Authority) in order to finish two phases of Gwadar Operation. Pakistan Muslim League-N won elections in May 2013; the first foreign visit to Pakistan was of Chinese Premier Li kichiyang. On return from his visit in July 2013 PM Nawaz Sharif visited and signed this CPEC in China, with memorandum of understanding. First priority was given to roads to weak infrastructure of roads in Pakistan from Kashgar to Gwadar. 43 In May 2015 China accorded on 51 agreements under CPEC. The port is being built on necessity basis because of growing world trade and need for growing energy markets require new ports. Gwadar will provide an access to land locked countries an access for energy, sea trade and other markets, thus producing revenue for Pakistan. It has been assumed by America that after few decade oil reserves of Saudi Arabia and other Arab Countries would end up. After this decade America is looking towards Iran, CARs and Afghanistan to satisfy her energy needs and requirements. Gwadar is the funnel of this region. By 2050 US will import 80% energy requirement from CARs and the port (Gwadar) will be shortest and feasible route for her. President Pervez Musharraf said, “If we see this whole region, it is like a funnel. The top of the funnel is this wide area of Central Asia and also China's western region. And this funnel gets narrowed on through Afghanistan and Pakistan and the end of this funnel is Gwadar port. So, this funnel, futuristically, is the economic funnel of this whole region.” (Anwar, Z.2011, p.97) Phase-one was completed in December 2006 with the cost of USD $248 million in which three berths constructed. The second phase was started in 2007 by China Overseas Port Holding Company (COPHC). On February 1, 2007 government signed forty-year accord with the PSA. “Gwadar port will help introduce feeder cargo services to these countries by providing dedicated, efficient and cost-effective port facilities. The infrastructure facilities consisting of road-link, connecting Gwadar to the national highway, will serve as a gateway for trade from land-locked countries of Central Asia. It will serve as the mother-port at the junction of traditional trade routes opposite straits of Hormuz which lies so close to this base and at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. It will provide an alternative access to the sea for export and import of cargo from and to the northern areas of Pakistan.” (Musharraf, 2002) Saudi Prince Mohamamd bin Salman visited Pakistan and met with Prime Minister Imran Khan, Saudi Arabia wished to invest in Ricko Dick’s gold and copper. It is also planning to construct a bridge of 40 km from Gwadar to Oman and Muscat. This will be biggest opportunity for regional pilgrims through road. Saudi Arabia promised to 44 install oil refinery in Gwadar. Meanwhile, the Saudis also demanded for partnership in CPEC but Pakistan desisted by saying that it is a bilateral project between her and China. Afghanistan and CARs will equally enjoy Gwadar’s proximity. It will serve as mother port for landlocked countries at junction of Hormuz. Northen Areas such as GB, Narran and Kagan and Kashmir will be able to import and export their cargo and by products. “The CPEC is in accordance with the western development programs introduced in the late 1990s to focus on the industrial development of western regions.” (Nakhoda.2016, p.9) Free Trade Agreement (FTA) signed by Hujin Tao and President Musharaf in 2006 provided path for CPEC. It is an opportunity for development and economic prosperity. CPEC follows ‘Constructive Engagement’ a policy for Business, Political and Social change. $54billion investment in CPEC would be a potential game changer for region and especially for Iron Brothers. This will make China influential in South and Central Asia. “The total agreements worth $27.7 Billion-P’s share were $2.7 billion, whereas Punjab gets the lion share of $11 billion. The share of Sindh was $9 billion while there was no mention of Baluchistan.” (Ali, M.2015) Table 7 Est. Cost in Billions USD Sector Energy 33.79 Road 5.90 Rail 3.69 Mass transit in Lahore 1.60 Gwadar Port 0.66 China Pakistan fiber Optics 0.04 Total 45.69 Source: Government of Pakistan: SAID When Malacca Strait will be blocked by U.S,Gwadar would assist Chines trade route from the Indian Ocean and to the West Asia.Merit based selection of Gwadar among other coastal areas gives credit to it because it is warmer and has deepest coast. “After years of painstaking deliberations by Government of Pakistan, Gwadar was chosen as the most suitable alternate port apart from 45 Karachi and Bin Qasim Ports amongst eight potential locations of Keti Bandar, Sonmiani, Hingol, Ormara, KhorKalmat, Pasni, Gwadar, and Jiwani. The port finally become functional after first commercial vessel ‘Pos Glory’ called on the port on March 15, 2008.” (Shahid, S.2008) Gwadar has close proximity with Iran, Afghanistan, Hormuz, Oman, Saudi Arabia and it’s on the mouth of Gulf region. Karachi and Bin Qasim ports are over populated and can’t face the burden more than they have right now. Keti, Somiani and other petty-ports have no capacity to dock S-type cargo ships and they are fish harbors. The credit of feasibility Gwadar goes to Musharaf government; it will also be remembered in the history of Gwadar and CPEC because it kicked off and provide foundation stone for China to lay down the foundation of CPEC on the junction. “Government of Pakistan transferred the operational control of Gwadar from PSA International (20072012) to China Overseas Port Holding Company (COPHC) on 18 February 2013. The PSA International showed least concern regarding the development of Gwadar Port.” (Makhdoom, Basit, Khan.2014, p.188) PSA was not abiding by the terms and conditions so the government had to take such decision. The control was handed through an agreement duly signed by former president Asif Ali Zardari with Mr. Liu the ambassador to Pakistan. Port Holding company shall operate only while Gwadar would remain property of Gwadar Port Authority. 2. IMPORTANCE FOR THE CHINA In 2005 on April 6, President Wen Jiabao addressed “China-Pakistan Business Cooperation Conference” in Islamabad he said, “The goal of our cooperation is to seek common development. The economies of both countries enjoy strong complementarities. Pakistan enjoys abundant resources. China possesses the applicable technologies and development. China will actively encourage the competitive enterprises to invest in Pakistan so as to achieve win-win results and create more employment opportunities in local areas”. “The surge in bilateral trade between China and ASEAN, for instance, is primarily in intermediate goods, accounting for over 80 percent of China’s exports to and over 95 percent of its imports from ASEAN.” (Ahmad, M.2014, p.466) 46 Gwadar is Pakistan’s port situated in the largest Province of Baluchistan in the south of Central Asia. It holds key position in the Arabian and Indian Ocean. It is located on the mouth of Hormuz, where 40% of world oil transported to the whole world. Iran’s port of Chabahar and port Bandar Abbas are so closely connected with Gwadar. Here a question may arise that why China is not interested in these ports; she can develop these and can use them for the purpose. The answer is simple China invests in because she will have to pass through Pakistan which in result will increase the route and such route cost huge sum for China. China is investing $64 billion the figure has been increasing with investment on Gwadar Economic Corridor because she wants a quick access to Persian Gulf. With investment in Gwadar China will save billions of dollars and leave US behind in economic race. China is going to beat US economically. She wants to enhance its economy with the support of Pakistan through Gwadar Port. China has started to work on China Pakistan Economic Corridor; CPEC is the project name which would include the development of Gwadar in sectors of rail, road and airport for the smooth access to Gwadar. China is investing $54 (primary investment) billion in two phases the first phase includes the development of Gwadar and the second phase includes infrastructure in which roads will be built and upgraded, this growth and development will collectively benefit for both of the nations i.e. The Chinese and the Pakistanis.“The CPEC deal grants the China 40 years’ operation right to the Port and China will be able to save billions in the transport costs and save time.” (Rakistis.2015, p.40) It is very costly for China to purchase oil from Persian and Arabian Gulf and travel through Indian Ocean, it has to travel 30,000 km and will have pay sea route taxes and customs. Karakoram Highway is just 1700 km which connects Kashgar of China to Gwadar of Pakistan. The tactic is saving her taxes, long routes and costly travel. Gwadar will provide China easy access to the Gulf oil economy. The net result would be the enhancement of China’s economy in the international market. China wants direct access to Gulf countries, this sign shows that China is going to affect US import because US is world’s first largest oil consumer and importer. “In 2010, according to a report by the Paris-based International Energy Agency, China had become the largest energy consumer in the world surpassing USA.” (Shabir.2013, p.92) China’s economy is increasing at 9% every year as compared to US 7.3% so China wants to further accelerate its GDP growth rate by 47 utilizing Gwadar port. “By 2050, according to a report by Price water house Coopers; China is projected to become the world's largest economy, with a GDP of $58.5 trillion, up from $5.7 trillion in 2010.” (Al Jazeera, 2017) [Accessed 11 August 2017]) Since the disintegration of USSR, Chinese administration is chasing its practical, alert and strong-minded policies in a reactive manner to be an accepted as a world power in future. “An internal report prepared for the Pentagon entitled energy future in Asia, which state the Beijing has already set up electronic eavesdropping posts at Gwadar which mentorship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Arabian Sea while allowing it closely monitors US Naval activities and US-Indian maritime cooperation.” (Zohaib, A.1945, p.240) “Diego Garcia” is United States military base in the Indian Ocean.” (Zohaib, A.1945, p.240)70% trade of China has been transited from Indian Ocean because of pirates, Indian and American Navigation monitoring China is feeling her trade insecure, diplomatic relations and foreign policy. Any conflict on the Strait of Malacca can halt Chinese trade. Trade through CPEC would be secure than that of Malacca and would save time, distance and cost. China shall be able to modernize Xingjian and get rid of separatist movement caused by economic deprivations. It was China who had built two out of four power plants for Pakistan; two of them are still underway. Pakistan being only Muslim nuclear country having high prestige in Muslim world can get Chinese entry into Muslim world, which will further enhance Chinese trade and economic relations. Through the above mentioned facts, we can conclude that China’s one of the intentions is to monitor Indian Ocean and activities of US military base. The report published for Pentagon states that China has already established such set up for the same purpose. Its example may be given from the point that China has approved eight Nuclear Submarines for Pakistan, she did so because she has already monitored that India has set up its nuclear facilities in Indian Ocean. To check the monitoring system of Indian Navy, Pakistani Nuclear Submarines would be set up for the monitoring and countering purposes. To counter the monitoring propaganda of China over Indian Ocean and India US maritime cooperation the intelligence services of many countries like US, Britain, Saudi Arabia, India, Afghanistan, Japan and so on will also be able to closely monitor the progress of Silk Road projects in Pakistan in the coming years. 48 Militarily and strategically, Gwadar Port would help China to observe the SLOCs from the Persian Gulf, about 60% of Chinese energy supplies come from the Persian Gulf. Chinese naval presence in Gwadar is going to develop Pakistan’s coastal defense. A top secretes note by Chinese director general of staff logistics department states about Peoples Liberation Army’s tactical plans to increase the control over Pacific and Indian Ocean with respect in accordance with sea defense. China considers Indian activities acerbic in the Persian and Aden Gulfs. Zhao a Chinese representative acknowledged that China would not allow India to control Indian Ocean alone. From his statement it is obvious that a naval base at the entrance of the Indian Ocean will help China to keep check on the Indian domination in the region. Gwadar port will provide China Naval base similar to the Indian and will provide direct approach to the Persian Gulf and Africa. “China is spending billions of dollars on the development of her western part of the country i.e. Kashgar/ Zinjiang province which is far from her port in the east.” (Niaz, A.2006, p.637) Another reference from the same book and page identifies in these words “Europe is reviving the old silk route that’s why China is interested to increase her influence and economic activities in the countries west of it.” (Niaz, A.2006, p.637) The citation highlights that for China it is almost impossible to access through Indian Ocean from its southern part, so China has selected the shortest route to reach Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea. This route pass will enable China to easily access and buy crude oil from the Gulf countries. The difference between 10,000km (Sea route from China through Indian Ocean to Gwadar) and 1700km (from Kashgar to Gwadar) is best for China this is the main reason why China is interested in Gwadar project. “China’s hinterland is at least 5000 km away from its coastal regions. Through CPEC, China would drastically cut down the distance to the nearest port for its westernmost provinces, as Kashgar is 4500 km from the Shanghai port whereas Gwadar Port is only 2800 km away. Gwadar Port would provide China with access to Afghanistan and the Central Asian Republics (CARs).” (Portia.2017, p.56) As stated by memorandum of understanding China, Pakistan and Central Asian Republics have by now planned a widespread advance of communication infrastructure from Caspian Sea to Xinjiang in East and Gwadar Port in the South. The operation of the Gwadar port an accessible land link can be helpful to China to 49 improving its mounting trade to Central Asia, Middle East and Africa. Gwadar will provide China, a strategic position in the Caspian Region thus, providing a trade route for the western Xinjiang province. “Xinjiang is China's largest and yet most sparsely populated province. Xinjiang shares borders with Pakistan, Eastern Central Asian Republics and Afghanistan. The Uighurs the ethnic Turks in the western Muslim dominated Xinjiang province basing on, religious, cultural and language differences from the Han majority have called for right of selfdetermination. Considering the facets like its neighborhood to the Muslim Central Asian Republics, the presence of a nuclear test site of Lop Nur, Its access to warm waters through silk route and the presence of oil, Chinese government has adopted the policy of ‘Go west’ for the economic development of Xinjiang province. The Gwadar port is very prudent for the Chinese economy especially for the economic development of its south western Xinjiang Province. It provides China with an option to utilize the shortest approach to the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Aden, only by traversing 2500 kms on an existing Silk Route. This approach will also be taken as an economic opportunity for the struggling Uighurs, which in turn can improve the relations of neighboring Muslims from two countries.” (Malik,H.2012, p.62) India is arch rival of both countries i.e. Pakistan and China. China is good friend of Pakistan since her cooperation in 1965 war, our relations with China started in 1962. “In a move that will strengthen the defense of Gwadar, Pakistan has reportedly finalizeda 6$ billion deal with China for purchase of eight diesel-powered, conventionallyarmed attack submarines.” (Rakisits, C.2015, p.40)Both countries want to maintain balance of power against India. India has already deployed its Nuclear Submarines so the same thing is being done by China to counter influence of India on the India Ocean due to this reason China has Provided Pakistan Nuclear Submarine. It concluded in these words 50 that China has set up watch dogs over India through these submarines. Chinese naval presence at Gwadar point will not only test out the INDO-US control of Indian Ocean but will also be able to strive to achieve its aim of being a naval power. The Distance of 460 Kms for away from India will reduce the exposure of Pakistan. Gwadar will assist Pakistan to monitor the Sea Lines of Communications (SLOCs) initiate from the Gulf. Strategically, conceiving the setting up of Naval Bases at Gwadar and Ormara by Pakistan Navy and presence of Chinese Naval, domination of U.S 5th Naval Fleet on Arabian Sea at Persian Gulf and Indian inspiration to be a Blue Water Navy would be checked out. This will also establish Pakistan and China naval link to deny movement of Indian Navy. The U.S wish for energy resources in Middle East and CARs might be a strong reason of Chinese arrival near the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. It may emphatically cast Gwadar’s strategic value for the America. CPEC is the project like Marshal Fund introduced by America after WW-II China will make this project successful to show America that China has done what America could not. Companies of about 100 countries have been investing in One Belt One Road projects and China will make progress exemplary for the world. Iranian gas can be pipelined to China. By 2020 China demand for oil will be double than current one, US analysts predicted. This demand will increase to 150% an equal demand to United America. “If real GDP in China and America continues to grow at the same annual pace, China ‘s volume of GDP would surpass America ‘s in 2022.” (Munir, M.2014, p.11) China’s trade distance from Gulf and East African states will be reduced from 15000 km to just 2500 km. China will be able to import goods within 48 hours once fast rail and road networks completed. China will not only bridle the Indo-US influence on Indian Ocean but also increase strength of her naval power to the ocean. Gwadar port will provide China a placement in Caspian Region. Chinese trade will increase 9% per year adding US $1.76 trillion to her economy. The net result of this opportunity would make China world’s leading economy before 2025AD. With the progress of CPEC, it will bring economic opportunities for Uighurs and improve Chinese relations with Central Asian Muslims. It will satisfy Chinese need for 60% energy requirements. If 51 China is denied to have access to Malacca Strait then Gwadar port would serve her as an alternative to approach to Asia, Europe and Africa. 3. IMPORTANCE FOR PAKISTAN “According to the master plan of the Port, it can capture up to 25 per cent of the national import/export market by 2020, 15 per cent of Pakistan‘s share of transit trade with CARs, 40 per cent for Afghanistan and 12 per cent for Xinjiang. This will also develop regional inter-dependencies which in turn would create direct stakes in each other’s stability and prosperity and making economic partners of geographical neighbours.” (Shabir.2013, p.90-91) World Economic Forum revealed that Pakistan secured 133rd position out of 137 countries in 2014, in 2016 it ranked 122nd out of 137 but recent ranking unveiled that Pakistan is on 115th position out of 137. Reason behind this up-gradation is infrastructure in Pakistan the report revealed. Let’s compare the benefits with China in a nutshell. Through CPEC China will develop its less developed Xingjian area where 5% of Chinese population lives. Likewise, Pakistan via CPEC will also develop less developed province of Pakistan i.e. Baluchistan. Both countries face securities issues in their less developed provinces. China faces threat from Uyghur movement and Pakistan from Tehrek-i-Taleban, Baloch Liberation Organization and other NonState Actors. The population of Eastern China would shift to the Western China for jobs, turning the minority province into majority, despite some hue and cry over the shuffling of people other provinces in search for job opportunities in Gwadar will also turn the majority into minority. It is fact that it will also have adverse impacts on census against Baloch; it is only one side of the coin. The other side can reveal that it will provide opportunities to literate population of Pakistan alike which dies in search for job. Arid soil of Gwadar dries up water of Ankara dam results in scarcity of water for masses. Water is sold Rs.10, 000 per tanker. After the development of Gwadar water crisis would be resolved. Government is installing desalinization plants at Gwadar port city to make water available for public and Chinese officials. Gwadar has invited technicians and need for technical centers. It had been best if technical institutions had initially been provided to provinces to quench the thirst of Gwadar. Now these institutions will be 52 set up in Baluchistan and Gwadar particular will provide technicians in future. Civil hospital will be built. Gwadar is under federal government so the federation will produce revenue from it. It will be helpful to monitor Indian activities against Pakistan and China. It will counter spy monitoring and Indian involvement in Baluchistan. USA navy has been working as watchdog over Arabia Sea and on Indian Ocean. Karakorum Highway was constructed as sign of Pak-China Friendship, now it has been upgraded by Chinese investment in CPEC. All provinces of Pakistan will be linked with K2 highway through Eastern and Western routes. It will connect Pakistan with China, Afghanistan, Iran, and CARs. This regional connectivity will ensure safely transportation of oil and gas to Pakistan, Afghanistan and Indian from Turkmenistan. Pakistan’s current GDP is $988 billion by 2050 it will reach to $4.2 trillion.30, 000 job opportunities are waiting for Pakistanis. Two security zones established for Gwadar will also furnish the job and livelihood. The day when Nawaz Sharif and Raheel Sharif were inaugurating Gwadar, China earned 20 million while Pakistan earned 4 million. Total earn was 24 million it means that Pakistan gained 20% and China gained 80%. Definitely China will earn more than Pakistan. This project will handle 300 million to 400-million-ton cargo. CPEC would be great source of stratification by 2025, it will change lower income community nation into upper income community. Skill Development in Sindh the value of land around the corridor will raise high at urban, suburban and rural areas. Real Estate is struggling hard to acquire land along the strategic locations. Pakistan Navy had advanced in Coastal Security and Defence Force for Harbor to tackle scourge around the Seacoast. It placed a Force Protection Battalion at Gwadar for the security of Chinese workers. Gwadar provide strategic depth to Pakistan against Indian presence in Arabian Sea and poses threats to her. “Subsequently, in December 2016, the Pakistan Navy unveiled a special Task Force (TF)-88 commissioned for the protection of the Gwadar deep-sea port. The TF-88 comprises warships, attack helicopters, unmanned aerial vehicles and other surveillance assets.” (Portia.2017, p.59) On 9 June 1947 Pakistan declared Permanent member of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the membership opened a new opportunity for cooperation with SCO on regional, political, military and economics. Under SCO objectives SCO member will help another member in case of war, CPEC and its 53 connectivity with OBOR will make SCO members capable enough to defend Pakistan against foreign aggression. Economic objective of SCO will also serve in this regard. It will also satisfy long standing desire of Russia for warm water near Arabian Sea. Aged SCO countries will manage their trade business with, ASEAN, North Africa, Middle East and Gulf region. Approach of CARs and other SCO to Pakistani Ports will be of immense importance at all level such as, cooperation, employment, FDI in Pakistan, it will end energy crisis in Pakistan. Expected investment in energy sector by 2021 will be 16000 MW. Chinese suppliers of military hardware constructed two plants in nuclear energy sector and two more are under construction. Pakistan has lost $35 million on war on terror. This investment will replace losses and bring further investment due to OBOR. In 2006 Pakistan singed FTA with China and within three years, in 2009 Pakistan became China’s biggest importer. Currently the trade of Pakistan with her neighbours is limited. It will get boost. The initial investment in CPEC was $46 billion out of it $34 billion were reserved for energy sector which will get boost after the projects completed. Nawaz during his campaign for elections 2013 had promised to end energy crisis in Pakistan. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang was the first foreigner who visited Pakistan, similarly his counterpart former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had signed CPEC and other MoUs on his visit to China, which resulted in a cause to end long lasting energy crisis in Pakistan. Although the CPEC investment and project is gigantic than K2 Highway, despite it is not gaining much importance as compare to eight wonder of the world (K2 Highway). The reasons are the changes in the routes and smaller provinces have been deprived of the rights by Federal Government. Chairman of Senate Committee on CPEC had informed that due to these decisions federation will become weak. The ‘Pakistan Economic Survey 2016-17’ has briefed that due to increased demand as a result of CPEC projects construction related material such as iron, steel and cement etc. has experienced huge growth. Interest on CPEC projects 2-3% while the repayment is 1520 years including grace. 54 3.1 IMPORTANCE FOR PUNJAB Punjab was the first among other provinces in perceiving the gravity of CPEC. M2 was first Motorway in South Asia started in 1992 and completed in 1997 by ML (N). 12 projects under the CPEC plan will be set up in Punjab, these projects include. 60% out of total revenue from CPEC for Pakistan will be generated by Punjab. Revenue distribution made on population basis and Punjab earn more than 50% from NFC award thus it would have a lion’s share as compared to other provinces. Although, Punjab and KPK have no coastlines and these two provinces are dependent upon Baluchistan and Sindh with respect to coast. The PML (N) government was keen in this project and promised largest harvesting benefits for the Punjab. Punjab is the heart of Pakistan and has core industrial and business areas thus CPEC is important for this province. This province can be benefited with electricity, chemicals, industry, IT, and minerals from the CPEC. It is sole responsibilities for provinces to have most of these opportunities according to their demand and requirements. 1) Matiari Faisalabad Trasnmission line Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park in Bahawalpur 2) Matiari Lahore Trasmission Line 3) Lahore Orange Line Metro Train 4) Optical Fiber Cable from Rawalpindi to Khunjrab 5) Karachi Lahore Motorway (Sukkur to Multan) 6) Haeir and Ruba Economic Zone II 7) Joint Feasibility Study for Upgradation of ML1 8) Upgradtion of ML1 9) Sahiwal Coal Fired Power Plant 10) Rahimyar 11) Khan Coal Powerr Plant 12) Karot Hydro Power Plant. Source: http://cpec.gov.pk/ In the initial phase of this project, we find opposition from other provinces which was a sign of importance of this project for Punjab. ‘P’ in CPEC was termed as Punjab indeed criticism lighted that it is China Punjab Economic Corridor, of which means that the major share will be harvested by Punjab. Hassan Abdal is located in the northern Punjab about 40 km away from Islamabad. The Eastern route will pass through Hassan Abdal benefiting India because it is just 300 km away from Indian border and Indian District Armitsaris about 318 away from Abdal. China will emphasis on Pakistan in future to use Hassan Abdal on Wagha route for trade because India is also emerging economy. Northern Punjab and Baluchistan can serve Indian 55 trade in befitting manner but testy relations between her and Pakistan are still playing role as Berlin Wall. It is a hope that CPEC will perish this wall. 3.2 IMPORTANCE FOR SINDH Under China Pakistan Economic Corridor 13 Projects will be part of Sindh, projects are named below. The source for these projects is on the official website http://cpec.gov.pk/ Projects in Sindh 1) Matiari Lahore Trasmission Line 2) Matiari Faisalabad Transmission Line 3) Port Qasim Power Plant 4) Engro Thar Power Plant 5) Surface Mine in Block II of Thar Coal Field Dawood Wind Farm (Underway) 6) Jhimpir Wind Farm 7) Sachal Wind Farm 8) China Sunec Wind Farm 9) Upgradation of ML1 10) Thar Coal Block and Mine Mouth Power Plant 11) Gwadar NawabaShah LNG Termibal and Pipenline 12) Karachi Lahore Motorway (Sukkur to Multan) 13) Joint Feasibility Study for upgradation of ML1. 14) Source: http://cpec.gov.pk/ Out of $35 billion for energy projects $11 billion will be invested in Sindh. $9 billion will be invested in Baluchistan. “Pakistan desperately needs to develop Gwadar Port in order to reduce the burden on Karachi and Bin Qasim Ports which are operating at their full capacity and also to further boost Pakistan’s sea borne trade.” (Shabir.2013, p.91) 0n 4-5 December 1971, India attacked on Karachi Harbors under Operations Python and Trident. India destroyed facilities and vessels of Pakistan. Alternate Gwadar port would reduce the burden on Karachi ports in case of war against India. Besides this, it will also reduce cargo load on Karachi and Qasim ports. 56 In 1969 Karachi Circular Railway (KCR) became functional, with three line and twenty-three stations. Japan International Cooperation Agency in August 2012 had agreed to upgrade KCR and facilitate commuters at 23 stations. This scheme could handle 700,000 commuters per day. Current population of Karachi is 25100,000 but in 2030 it will cross 33400,000, such a huge population will face travel problems in Karachi to tackle this issue in present. Syed Murad Ali Shan in the sixth meeting of Pakistan China Joint Cooperation Committee held in December 2016 at Beijing got approved three projects for Karachi; the projects include first KCR, second Keti Bandar and Special Economic Zone. On May 6, 2016 Nawaz Sharif inaugurated Sukkur Multan highway in a ceremony held at Sukkur. Its highway will connect Peshwar with Karachi. “Today morning an important meeting of the transport infrastructure JWG of CPEC was held here and discussed all the three projects — the KCR, the Keti Bandar and the Special Economic Zone Dhabeji put up by Sindh government. The meeting participants approved the three important projects of the province and recommended the KCR to Joint Coordination Committee of CPEC for its implementation under the CPEC framework” said, Murad Ali Shah (Mansor, H.2017) He himself highlighted the importance of the KCR in these words “This will foster a new era of connectivity and offer employment generation and decent mode of transportation.” (Mansor, H.2017) It was estimated in 2016 that the population of Karachi has reached to 1.25 million, which is greater than that of Mexico, Tokyo, Mumbai, Delhi and Jakarta. In 2030 AD its population will reach up to 3.34 million thus Karachi is the best city for investment. The importance of Karachi for Chinese investment was also stressed by Sindh Chief Minister during 6th JCC. Under CPEC project deprived regions like Thar will have an economic opportunities and developments. Coal reserves of Thar can be utilized for these purposes. 57 3.3 IMPORTANCE FOR KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA Only eight projects will be set up in KPK. Out of these eastern, central and western alignments, last one is very much important for KPK and Baluchistan’s progress. The reason behind its importance is the economical unitswhich would be set up on this alignment. This initiative will increase Foreign Direct Investment as well as investment at national level. A few names are given below to have a look at projects for KPK under CPEC. The source of these projects obtained from official website, 1) Optical Fiber Cable form Rawalpindi to Khunjrab 2) Joint Feasibility Study for Upgradation of ML1 3) KKH-II (Havelian-Thakot) 4) Upgradation of ML-1 5) KKH-III (Raikot-Thakot) 6) D.I. Khan Quetta Highway(N-50) 7) Suki Kinari Hydropower Project 8) Establishment of Havelian Dry Port Source: http://cpec.gov.pk/ To attract the national and international investors government of Pervaiz Khattak had announced industrialization policy. For safety and security of these investment KPK government had decided to set up special security for force to protect projects under CPEC. “He said that Khyber Pakhtunkhwa because of its nearness to Afghanistan, Central Asian republics and China had gained much importance not only for trade and economic activities but it would bring different civilizations and cultures closer to each other as well. He told the media that in the recent past investors of China, Iran, Canada, Denmark, England and some other Islamic and European countries demonstrated their willingness to invest in the natural advantages of KP province.” (Buneri, A.2017) Hazara part of KPK is the main hub of the goods passing through these routes. In 2017, Abbottabad and Kashgar were declared twin cities. KPK is strategically 58 significant due its connectivity with Afghanistan via Torkham border and China via Khunjrab Pass. 3.4 IMPORTANCE FOR BALUCHISTAN 16 projects will be set up in Baluchistan 1) Khuzdar Basima Highway(N-30) 2) Gwadar Nawabshah LNG Terminal and Pipeline 3) wadar East Bay Expressway 4) Gwadar Hospital Upgradation 5) Gwadar Technical and Vocational College 6) Gwadar EastBay Expressway II 7) Fresh Water Supply 8) Gwadar Free Zone. 9) Gwadar New International Airport 10) D.I Khan-Quetta Highway (N-50) 11) Hubco Coal Power Plant 12) Gwadar Power Plant 13) Gwadar Smart Port City Master Plan 14) Expansion of Mutli-Purpose Terminal including Breakwater and Dredging Wastewater 15) Treatment Plants of Gwadar City 16) Gwadar Primary School, Source: http://cpec.gov.pk/ Federal government neither consulted with provincial government when it handed over the second phase of Gwadar port to a private sector nor it will allocate a bunch of revenue. The Balochis demand provincial government and Cabinet to handle and operate the port. They do not want strangers to have right to vote. In 2004 Chaudri Shujat Hussain constituted two Parliamentary Committees to look into Baluchistan issues and suggest measure to erode confrontation with government. Parliamentary Committee was bifurcated into two sub committees headed by Senator Mushahid Hussain Sayed and Wasim Sajjad for recommendations. 59 3.4.1 FISHER MAN Due to CPEC the old fishing points not only have been distorted but also their access has been restricted. Fishermen of Baloch nation had been considered experts of tugboat in Dubai and other countries without any certificates now they have been asked degrees for fishing. Ferrymen of Gwadar were habitual to travelling to India and Africa with the guidance of stars but today men rely upon compass etc. Mir Ashgar Rind the minister for Fisheries in Gwadar had shown his grievances on transferring the equipment and machineries of Gwadar to Karachi port. Syed Sher Jan Baluch had also discouraged federal government on issuing licenses to national and international trawler. 3.4.2 EDUCATION Pakistan China has trusted the responsibility of teaching Chinese language in Pakistan to Confucius Institute. This institute is responsible to promote Chinese language and culture at national and international level; it means Chinese culture would flourish in Pakistan. Ibn e Khaldun the father of sociology in his book Muqaddama mentions that if alien nation migrates and live in another society” cultural diffusion” occurs, absorption of culture results in the creation of different culture or mixed culture. Culture of Baluchistan especially Gwadar would have more influence. Baluchi people don’t bear native and Pakistani soldiers, how they will bear the burden of Chinese presence, though CPEC has opportunities for them. Those who avoid to induct their children for modern education, will they learn Chinese? Neither their children had been provided with technical education nor had they been given new sources for jobs as promised by government to fishermen. If technical institutions were not available it means the government policy was not fair, Baloch representation is essential in maintaining law and order situation in Gwadar and Province. It is great to use local population in administration of Gwadar. If they had dealt with fair natives of Gwadar must have engineers and technician. Why Pak-China Institute is not importing Chinese language education into Gwadar for Baloch? Why this is only confined to Punjab province especially? In 2005 Musharaf was given suggestions to induct Gwadar students into Qasim port for learning so that they could avail job opportunities in Gwadar port. 60 3.4.3 WATER ISSUE Due to scarcity of water either people are selling their animals at low cost or shifting to other areas. In 1990s Akora dam was constructed to water Gwadar public but has failed due increasing population. There are two main causes of draught in dam one shortage of rain and second silt and organic material deposited along with the rain water. Silt and organics were not wiped out from it which resulted in scarcity of water. Government of Pakistan with the investment of Rs.3800 million to construct Shadi Kaur Dam, Rs.7900 million has been invested to pipeline five million of gallon water from Sawad and Shadikaur dam through pipelines to Gwadar. Desalinization water plant set up but “Reforms Committee was presided by Agha Shahzeb Durani and he presented a report on the scarcity of water at Gwadar, it stated that Akra dam was constructed to provide water but has dried up and filled up with sand and silt, to solve the problem desalinization plant was set up of which design was faulty and it stopped functioning after 47 days, now the water is costly sold.” (Kawish.2018, p.13) During the meeting of Planning Commission Islamabad chaired by Ahsan Iqbal on 18 January 2017 Director General GDA, Doctor Sajjad Hussain also briefed on grant by China to expand Gwadar Hospital. From 1848 to 1947, this century witnessed the development in Baluchistan by British Empire. They constructed road, railways, airports with the aim to build bank before Russian access to the warm water of Baluchistan. How these developments of Gwadar and Airport can bring economic change for public? Despite the fact, federal government will be sole beneficiary of earning from Gwadar and airport not provincial government of Baluchistan. Under 18th amendment Gwadar is part of Baluchistan; provincial government will have to handle Gwadar. The demand to induct Gwadar under 18th amendment came from political circles particularly Doctor Abdul Malik Baloch who put forward the same demand before federal government. The benefits from Gwadar should first come to Gwadar and Baluchistan. Syed Mehdi Shah former Chief Minister G.B on a strike against ignorance of GB in CPEC project observed that all parties except Pakistan Muslim League (N) are participating in grand rally against ignorance of GB in CPEC. On the same procession Secretary of Awami Action Committee and Mutaheda Wahda tul Muslimeen also warned government that GB is the central gateway of CPEC while 61 the concentration has been paid on other provinces, if it was ignored CPEC will not be allowed to pass through. It is odd to mention here that Baluchistan and GB are being ignored. CPEC is the first major economic cooperation between China and Pakistan, previously cooperation was mainly concentrated over politics and military. The whole trade passing though Gwadar can solve Pakistan economic issues. Iran, Russia and China strategically depend upon Pakistan. 4.6 MGD is the current requirement of Water in Gwadar, under CPEC short term in 2020 its requirement will reach to 12 MGD, in 2030 Medium Term the need for water will be 30.08 MGD and in long term plan it will reach up to 108.3 MGD. Ankra Dam fulfills 2.880 MGD, while other dams like Sawad Kour covers 47000-acrefeet, Shadi Kour dam 51000-acre feet and Desalination plants of 2.0 MGD are under construction. Main transmission of water to Gwadar will start from Shadi Kour dam joining the tributary of Swad dam with Sahdi Kour will reach to Gwadar. Under CPEC, GDA 5.0 MGD Desalination Plant is being constructed. BDA 2.0 MGD Desalination Plant at Karwat, Sangar Housing Scheme desalination plant on the capability of 0.2 MGD are under construction, while M/S Golden Palms’ desalination plant oncapability of 0.4 MGD and GPA desalination plant with capacity of 0.1 MGD are functioning. “Pakistan’s GDP increased from $28.7 billion in 1983 to around $70 billion in 2003, and its dependence on sea trade increased to about 95 percent.” (Ministry of Finance.2003) Pakistan was suffering 2% to 2.5% of GDP annually because of its energy crisis” Wilson Centre” reported. CPEC would add 10,000 MW to Pakistan energy system. Pakistan’s costs 4% to 6% of GDP every year. CPEC would restore trust of investors. 12000 troops for security of CPEC project has been funded by Pakistan, some equipment would be provided by China to strengthen security personals. “The official claimed that in 2016, around 43,000 containers, with goods worth $2.2 billion, were transported to Afghanistan. They included 96,000 metric tons of cloth worth Rs66 billion, 6,600 metric tons of tea valued at Rs13 billion, 80,000 metric tons of oil worth Rs12 billion and one million pieces of electronic equipment worth Rs16 billion were transported to Afghanistan under ATT (Afghan Transit Trade). A huge quantity of the smuggled goods is brought back in connivance with government departments working 62 in the tribal agencies that not only end up at different markets in Peshawar but is also sent to other provinces at lower prices.” (Zia, M.2017) Pakistan export sport goods and raw material to China while China exports finished goods to Pakistan. CPEC, it will boost bilateral relation with China, CPEC is not only the name of railroad connectivity but it will exchange, human capital, capital, resources, labor, information and technology. It will also burden on our local markets, Dr. Murad Ali (PhD, New Zealand), AvH Research Fellow German Development Institute/ Deutsches Institutfür Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) responding to my question, what would be the impacts of CPEC on our local market? via email he replied, “I think it is a very open-ended question and there could be many 'ifs' and 'buts' to clearly answer that. However, in terms of power/energy generation and up gradation/modernization of communication and transport infrastructure, there should be many positive impacts. Regarding the flooding of cheap and may be better Chinese products, Pakistani markets would not be able to compete (as we are already losing in terms of trade). Hence, Pakistani businesses need to be very competitive to take full advantage of CPEC. As I mentioned, there are various variables and dynamics at play.” (Ali. M, 2017) In exchange of raw material can demand industrialization for her so is the purpose of CPEC, Chinese wants raw material and markets for her products while Pakistan need industries for finished goods. It will increase Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Pakistan the country having youth population which will be utilized in all sorts of jobs. Although, Federal government has yet not disclosed to provinces that how much they will gain toll from routes through the provinces. 63 4 CPEC AND ECONOMIC STABILITY During the 6thJCC held in Pakistan November 2017, six documents singed including Long Term Plan (2017-2030), implementation on minutes on International Airport at Gwadar were also finalized during 6th JCC, the meeting included Main Line 1(ML1) from Karachi to Peshwar, under this JCC nine special economic zones China announced, of which Rashakai, Dhabeji and M-3 are most feasible. Under the accord on energy cooperation signed on November8, 2014 sixty one percent will be invested to improve energy and transmission network. Dearth in energy has reduced our GDP to 2% per annum and in its early phase it would increase 10,400 MW of energy to Pakistan. 9 Special Economic Zones would be constructed on the CPE-Corridor in the region of Baluchistan, KPK, Punjab, and Islamabad. Two energy projects in Sindh, one in FATA one each in Kashmir and GB, 40% of countries foreign exchange comes from Intra-Regional Trade and 60% Ultra Regional Trade. Pakistan is far behind from this average; instead she has lower than 5%. CPEC would leverage Pakistan in this regard and she will have to improve supply chain and production. Since 1960 Pakistan’s economic policies were not suitable for both types of trades but due to this project, she will exceed regional countries. It seems that Pakistan is in full mood of revising policies. Pakistan will have benefit of collected Tax from the corridor. CPEC will have two types of benefits for Pakistan direct and indirect benefits. Direct benefits will come through Gwadar port and CPEC while indirect impacts will come through industries, factories and other business activities around the Gwadar and CPEC. Gwadar port development will bring urban development as Karachi and Islamabad were scratched from dust and deserts to cities and are biggest cities of Pakistan. Indeed, it is urban to urban development program. It will bring Economic benefits, environmental, industrial, transportation, maintenance, cargo handling income and employment. “The CPEC is anticipated to boost Pakistan's economy, where the GDP is expected to grow by more than five percent by 2020, according to an IMF growth forecast. Price water house Coopers predicts that Pakistan's GDP will reach $4.2 trillion by 2050 from the current $988bn. For Pakistan, the combined value of the CPEC's infrastructure projects would be equivalent to 17 percent of Pakistan's GDP in 2015, a report by Deloitte predicted. The report estimated that the 64 economic corridor would create some 700,000 direct jobs between 2015 and 2030, and add up to 2.5 percent to the country's growth rate.” (Fahad, S.2017) Due to strategic position Pakistan can take leverage from Central and West Asian Countries. Gwadar would be more important than Dubai port because to its potential to handle large cargo ships of S-type and huge oil tankers. 36% of $45 billion is reserved for infrastructure and communication because it will enhance development opportunities for Pakistan. Under this project Pakistan will be able to boost its economy and enhance power generating capacity. “According to Shah Faisal Afridi, President of Pak-China Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCJCCI), China being the world’s largest consumer market for gems and jewelry, could help in utilizing Pakistan’s full potential through investment in the sector and promoting exports of gems to China.” (Tribune.2014, p.10) More than 120 Chinese Companies are functional in Pakistan and “There are strong bilateral trade relations between the Pakistan and China. Currently around $12 billion per year, trade between Pakistan and China is estimated to reach $15 billion in the next couple of years. The volume of bilateral trade between Pakistan from January to May 2014 was $6 billion, exhibiting a 12.66 percent growth rate” (Speech by H.E. Sun Weidong, Ambassador of China to Pakistan, at the Opening Ceremony of the Think Tank seminar on “Building ‘China-Pakistan Community of Shared Destiny’ in the New Era” on 5-6 August 2014) 5 IMPORTANCE FOR AZAD KASHMIR AJK was FATA is not part of CPEC; a road could be built to construct Muzaffarabad to CPEC so that people of Kashmir could reap benefits. Under CPEC three power projects will be constructed in Azad Kashmir. Kohala will be constructed on River Jehlum; it will generate 1124 MW of electricity. Mahal Power Project will generate 640 Megawatt of electricity while 720 MW of Karot Hydro Power Plant has been agreed to construct. This project will produce 720 MW of electricity in Kashmir after its completion in 2020. On this Karot project $1.6 billion will be invested and will be completed within five years. Raja Farooq Haider Khan thanked the Government of Pakistan and China for including Azad Kashmir in the CPEC project. Further Prime Minister of Azad Kashmir Farooq Haider Khan says that Azad Kashmir 65 is abounding in the natural resources and Kashmir has the capacity to generate more than 10,000 MW of electricity. “Gwadar has the potential to acquire the status of a center piece as a gate to Strait of Hurmoz; it can compete with the UAE ports by improving the exiting links to Caspian Region, and thus providing a better trade for route to land locked Caspian Region. Gwadar has the potential to be developed into a full-fledged regional hub and a trans-shipment port in the future.” (Malik.H.2012, p.58) Kashmir will be nucleus with in the centre of a circle covering China in East, CARs in West, Afghanistan and Iran in North-Southwest, Russia and Tajikistan in North, and India in Southeast. New infrastructure and communication will help tourism industry of beautiful Northern Valleys of Pakistan. 6 IMPORTANCE FOR THE REGION The emergence of Gwadar Port as a vibrant regional economic hub has caused the regional and extra regional powers to develop strategic and infra structural development with Gwadar Port to reach the energy rich Central Asian Republics (CARs). Iran and Dubai Port World (UAE) have interests to keep Gwadar Port out of competition as it serves as a gateway to Strait of Hurmoz. Pakistan needs to be addressing all the concerns to make Gwadar as a regional energy corridor. As early mentioned that Gwadar is a funnel it will not only benefit Pakistan and China but also whole region. The project will add more trades for CARs, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Middle East, India, Iran and China as well. Economic Zone on Kashgar and Gwadar will be important for China, Pakistan and other countries bordering with all-weather friends. Central Asian Countries became independent in 1991 since then Pakistan had been offering them access to Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea but could not materialized due to overloaded Qasim and Karachi ports, CPEC has turned the tide in their favour to approach other markets. CPEC will provide a mutual connectivity for the region. CARs had been searching for access to markets of Southeast and Southwest. CPEC will provide them competitive markets for their goods. This will also fulfill the dire needs of Pakistan to import and export through Afghanistan. 66 “Turkmenistan’s President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov discussed CPEC with Pakistan’s Sharif in March 2016, emphasizing the role of the project in promoting progress and prosperity. Berdimuhamedov’s enthusiasm should not come as a surprise, as his country is allowed to use the crown jewel of CPEC, the newly modernized Gwadar deep-sea port in Pakistan, which gives Turkmenistan access to the Indian Ocean.” (Shahbazov, F.2017) While Tajikistan can also be connected through a 20 km strip of Wakkan in Mughrab Badakhshan an autonomous region of Tajikistan. This strip connects Pakistan with Tajikistan. A road connects East Kulma Pass to the K2 Highway in China adjoining Tashkurgan (south) and Kashgar (north). Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had signed and approved three highways with Emomali Rahmon President of Tajikistan to connect Tajik with CPEC. Uzbek’s Deputy Prime Minister UlugbekRozukulov had toured Pakistan; Uzbek’s joining with CPEC will double up the energy capacity of Pakistan. This can cater the special needs of above-mentioned countries. Gwadar Port also termed as Suez Canal for CARs and China. Silk Road first connects CARs than rest of the world. CARs have financial capacity to invest in CPEC related projects. Pakistan and Afghanistan’s relations had not been stables for some decades and terrorist activities have also added fuel to the fire. CARs can only be connected via Kabul and Wakkan thus stability of Afghanistan is essential. Ashraf Ghani President of Afghanistan had asked Wagha border for her transit trade as condition to join CPEC. Although it is bilateral but it can turn into trilateral and multilateral, China will also finance in development and infrastructure in Afghanistan. On June 9, 2017 Pakistan declared regular member of Shangai organization thus her membership is beneficial for SCO member for trade and connectivity through CPEC. 67 Map: 2 Source: Google Map SCO members can invest and take full benefit from warm water by joining CPEC. They can even enjoy same facilities those are being given under CPEC. ‘Quadrilateral Traffic Transit Agreement’ (QTTA-above map showing red lines) a trade route begun in 1995 between Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and China, the purpose of this route was to give these countries an access to Arabian Sea but its importance paled due to ‘Afghanistan Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement’ (APTTA) singed in 2010. Pakistan by using this transit route was approaching CARs but Afghanistan insisted and used pressure tactics for Indian participation, if Afghanistan does not become part of CPEC QTTA can be used to connect CPEC with CARs. On becoming full member of SCO on June 9, 2017 Pakistan has strengthened CPEC’s importance for the region. Now Shangai members can quench their thirst for warm water through direct investment during the construction phase of CPEC. Shangai members can trade with South Asia, East and West Asia including Middle East and North Africa. CARs and Russia can harvest benefits from CPEC through passing Afghanistan via “Quadrilateral Traffic in Transit Agreement” (QTTA) because Afghanistan is facing terrorism and not suitable for mutual benefits. QTTA is a transit agreement among Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan China and Kazakhstan to enhance transit trade and traffic. Thus, it would be a great source of generating job opportunities for regional masses. It will be helpful to meet out energy requirements from energy rich CARs especially for India and Pakistan. CPEC is the best for South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation. This cooperation will improve and extend investment and economic relations. China will also be able to trade with Afghanistan. 68 PART TWO: CHINA PAKISTAN ENERGY COOPERATION 1. ENERGY PROJECTS “Some $15.5bn worth of coal, wind, solar and hydro energy projects will come online by 2017 and add 10,400 megawatts of energy to Pakistan's national grid”, according to officials. Under the accord on energy cooperation signed on November 8, 2014 sixty one percent will be invested to improve energy and transmission network. Dearth in energy has reduced our GDP to 2% per annum and in its early phase it would increase 10,400 MW of energy to Pakistan. Inexpensive electricity will reduce cost price and increase purchasing power. “Besides physical links connecting Pakistan and China, the project also envisages establishing several economic zones along the corridor. Also, an Energy Planning Working Group of the CPEC has been established that will undertake fast-track implementation of power projects related to the CPEC. Those projects of 21,690 MW power productions will be undertaken with the assistance of China under the CPEC plan.” (Sial.2014, p.2) “The Chinese interest in the proposed oil and gas pipelines from Gwadar and Iran to Kashgar across Pakistan would not only generate transit revenues and employment but would also be instrumental in easing the energy crises in Pakistan.” (Shabir.2013, p.90) Due to energy crisis Industrial Sector of Pakistan is operating at 50% capacity. Pakistan Textile production is limited currently Pakistan does not satisfy requirements due to energy crisis, US is biggest cotton importers in Pakistan while China in on second, after energy crisis resolved. Out of total investment $35 billion will be invested in energy projects, 21 energy projects have to be set up under CPEC, these projected are classified into three categories such as 15 Energy Priority Projects, 4 Actively Promoted Projects, 2 Potential Energy Projects. These will be of coal, thermal, hydro, solar and wind energy projects. In Sindhi, energy projects installed at Port Qasim, two projects at Thatta, three projects at Jhimpir, 3 projects at Thar Blocks, and Matiari to Lahore projects are included. In KPK at Naran and Bahawalpur, in Punjab at Sahiwal and Jehlum, in Baluchistan at Hub These above-mentioned projects at different provincial levels are projects constructed under Priority Projects. Under actively Promoted Projects, two of them will be 69 constructed in two Sindh while two in Punjab near Jehlum and Rahimyar Khan. All the two under Potential Projects will be installed at Gilgit Baltistan. 24,830 MW is the current production capacity of Pakistan and it faces 4,500 MW shortages on regular basis which results 2 to 2.5% decline in GDP. CPEC has committed to provide by 10,400 MW by March 2018 under “Early Harvest” program. Construction of Energy Projects in vested in IPP (Independent Power Producers). Financial support will come for these projects from Exim Bank of China on minimum 5% interest rate. Construction of Diamer Bhasha Dam also came under Pak-China discussions but failed to produce its feasibility report. It is astonishing that only one project is under CPEC for Baluchistan while the problems of masses at Gwadar are water and electricity rather than CPEC. Definitely it will end energy crisis in Pakistan. “Chinese cooperation for theconstruction of the Diamer-Bhasha Dam and the completion of the Nandipur power project are also part of the PCEC.” (Rizvi.H.2104, p.10) Chief Justice took initiative to collect funds for two dams reveal that China is not supporting Pakistan on Diamer Bhasha dam construction. Later on, newly elected PM of Pakistan Mr. Imran also shows his keen interest in collection of funds for the two projects, Mohamand and Diamer. PM asked Pakistanis living aboard for financial assistance. 2. GAS PIPELINE “The total length of the proposed gas pipeline from Gwadar Port to Xinjiang via Pakistan is 2500 km while the distance from Xinjiang to eastern ports of Shanghai and Beijing through inland China is 4500 km.” ( Shabir.2013, p.93) Under Iran-Pak (IP) gas pipeline LNG terminal at Gwadar had to be set up for processing and handing imported gas. Pakistan had to lay pipeline by December 2014 but it restricted itself due to sanctions over Iran. Gwadar gas pipeline will serve to Nawabshah. Under CPEC LNG gas pipeline is to restore IP project. IP is two-billion-dollar project and Pakistan is looking for China financial assistance. 85% of the total coast will be provided by China to set up LNG terminal at Gwadar and 700 km pipelines to other areas. Chinese LNG project will be merged with IP. 70 3. OIL PIPELINE In 2009 China withheld $12 billion for construction of an oil refinery due to security situations. The oil refinery is going to be resumed; it will pump oil from refinery at Gwadar to Kashgar. “Iran had also expressed the intention to set up an oil refinery of 400,000-barrel-per-day capacity at Gwadar Port during the previous PPP government. However, the project could not be pushed ahead because of international sanctions on Tehran and failure to reach an agreement on the proposed incentives.” (Bhutta, Z.2016, p.11) Previously, due to sanctions on Iran, Iranian oil had been smuggled but after lifting sanctions in response to a deal signed with Obama government could directly and legally export to Pakistan and Afghanistan. Map: 3 Source: Google.com If we look into the map we find that China needs oil for its Southwestern region. This can be gauged from the fact that Vice President of Power China Limited Mr. Li Yanming and Prime Minister Abbasi signed memorandum of understanding on North South Gas Pipeline in Hainan Island, where city of Sanyan is located. This will provide an uninterrupted gas supply to China and will lower the burden on petroleum products. The Dark patches on the map show the oil reserves of China. Oil in Xinjiang discovered in 1955, developed by CNPC (China National Petroleum Corporation) and named as Karamay Oil Field. It reserves three billion barrels of oil and produces 290,00 barrels per day. 71 “It is not reasonable to expect that Xinjiang will differ widely from this typical behaviour and this leads us to the conclusion that Xinjiang is about to reach a peak somewhere in the following decade, or possibly decades, provided that our URR estimate is reasonably accurate. A realistic future decline rate would be around 3.5%, also based on similarities with other fields and the strong correlation between depletion rate at peak and future average decline rate.” (Höök, Tang, Pang, Aleklett.2010, p.15) The decline in the production capacity is not good against the growing needs of the world particular for China. “Parco will set up the refinery in Balochistan that will have the capacity to process 250,000 barrels of crude oil per day. In Parco, the UAE holds 40% shares whereas the government of Pakistan has a 60% stake. China Huanqiu Contracting and Engineering Corporation has also expressed interest in setting up an oil refinery in Pakistan, preferably at Gwadar.” (Bhutta, Z.2016, p.11) China meets its 50% oil needs from Persian Gulf with travel and import hardship, but oil pipeline will ease its transportation. Winter temperature of northern areas of Pakistan with high altitude and freezing capacity will impact the viscosity of oil transportation but not impossible to take on, for example via boosting station, pumping and such other technology could be used for the purpose. Gwadar Kashgar Oil Pipeline has been financed by China Government and Frontier Works Organization (FWO) to be completed by 20121. “The overland route, via Pakistan, eliminates the need to ship crude through Malacca Strait. Chinese will establish a massive Industrial Park at Gwadar, which will house an oil city and petroleum refining zone beside dozens of other technical and logistical installations. This will help China meet its energy needs.” (Yousafzai.2016, p.1) In August 2016 Government has ordered FWO to prepare feasibility report for Gwadar Kashgar oil pipeline. The idea for oil transportation was floated by Zardari Government in 2008 but rejected by Chinese government due to non-feasibility of terrain and freezing environment. “In Gwadar, the oil city will also be built where in high-tech petro chemical and high-tech refineries will also be installed. The refined oil will be transported from Gwadar to the Kashgar and in return all kinds of finished products will be manufactured in the western part of China.” (Shahrukh.2016 p.1) 72 China will not only import oil for use but also store it for the time being. From below mentioned report we can easily keep in mind that at what pace the growing demand of oil for Chinese is increasing as well as its storage capacity. “According to a draft of the multi-billion-dollar stimulus package for the oil, petrochemical and chemical sectors released earlier this year, China hopes to have the capacity to store an additional 3 million mt of oil products by end-2009, 6 million mt by 2010 and 10 million mt by 2011.” (McCracken.2010, p.29, 30) 4. COMMUNICATION Communication also termed as transportation, where to deal with system of transportation under CPEC. To upgrade communication a chunk of investment is also part of this project, with the purposes of up gradation, improvement, easy and quick access to destinations. 4.1 RAIL Under CPEC rail-based Mass Transit Projects, projects like Karachi Circular Railway, Greater Peshwar Region Mass Transit, Quetta Transit and Orange Line Lahore are including. Mass Transit Train project has received consent upon construction. Purpose of this project is to make railway fast, safe and secure. To make railway track free the project would start from Peshawar to Rawalpindi. Form Peshawar work will begin. The traffic will be passed through inter passes where gates are located from Karachi to Peshawar. Grille will be installed beside railway tracks to intercept illegal traffic and crossing to make safe and fast. 3.69 billion dollars had reserved for rail project. The cost was increased to $5.5 billion and also expect for further increase in it to 8.8 billion the remaining cost other than $5.5 billion will be paid by ADB(Asian Development Bank).Automatic single system has been installed on railway tracks such system will reduce causalities. Under CPEC with 8-billion-dollar investment Pakistan Railway ML-1 will be upgraded. It will be in three phases. The speeds of train will be 160 km/h to reach the destination in short span of time. First phase of Lahore Multan 334 km station will be up graded with more facilities including Peshwar to Rawalpindi track of 159 km will be doubled. Hyderabad Multan 748 km and Kemari Hyderabad station 182 km and Walton Railway Academy Lahore will be upgraded in the first phase. Second phase Havelian to Texila 55 km track, Lahore to Lala Musa station 132 km, Rawalpindi to Lala Musa 170 km will be upgraded. Under second phase Karachi, Kotri and 73 Hyderabad 163 km new railway track is also under consideration. In third phase, Pakistan Walton Academy Lodhran, Khaniwal station 91 km will be upgraded. In 2021, 7, 540, 0000 passenger will travel through ML-1. China wants to connect Gwadar through train. Again, India has some reservation on this train project, the similar claim has been repeated by India that China is passing disputed territory. Joint Working Group announced Karachi Circular Railway, which is great success for the Karachi citizens in Sindh. In a meeting of The Central Development Working Party held at Islamabad. On May 3, 2017 chaired by Doctor Ahsan Iqbal approved 130 billion rupees for Revival of Karachi Circular Railway. ML-1 Rehabilitation and Up-gradation of Karachi-Lahore Peshwar (ML-1) Railway Track (1,872 km)’ is the project name for the up gradation of ML-1. The project was proposed by Pakistan Railways and also implementing it while Ministry of Communication is responsible for its supervision. $8,172 million is the estimated cost for this project. Chinese Government Concessional Loan (GCL) will be finance. Project will be awarded as per Public Procurement Regular Authority (PPRA) rules. Feasibility has been completed and framework agreement signed but will be put on fast track. Map given on nest page 74 Map: 4 Source:http://cpec.gov.pk/ 4.2 ROAD 36% of $45 billion is reserved for infrastructure and communication because it will enhance development opportunities for Pakistan. It will encircle huge mass of land or space beside it, port requires talents, technology and human resources to function and we have dearth of these. KKH will be linked with Kashgar Special Economic Zone (SEZ) and Dry Port. SEZ will allow Pakistani businessmen set up their business in Kashgar. China has drawn up ten policies on tax exemption, soft loans, and subsidy on electricity etc, net result will be more investment in Kashgar. 75 km Karachi Hyderabad motorway has been completed and 136km motorway would be completed by FWO in June 2017. E-35 expressway is in progress which is 60km form Hassan Abdal to Havelian near Mansehra would complete in 2018-19. “Pakistan and China signed $325 million agreement in 2006 for construction of an additional 200km part of Karakoram Highway from RaiKot to Sazeen.The Chairman of China Road and Bridge Company, Chen Yu Sheng, said that the company would send200 engineers and surveyors to Pakistan in February 2007 and the construction would start by March 75 2007. He said “the construction of the KKH is a big challenge but we will complete it in the minimum possible time The Chinese firm would also have to construct a sports complex, children parks, dispensaries and restaurants along the highway Karakoram Highway extension accord signed.” (Dawn Nov 25, 2006) “China has paid US$ 360 million to Pakistan for expansion and upgrading of all-weather traffic ability of KKH linking Pakistan with China. The contract for this has been awarded to the Frontier Works Organization, which has started the project.” (Portia.2017, p.58) Map: 5 Source:http://cpec.gov.pk/ 4.3 ALIGNMENTS AND ROUTES The Eastern Route of Corridor will pass through these areas i.e. Gwadar, Makran Coastal Highway, Interior Sindh, Central and Northern Punjab, Islamabad, Haripur, Abbottabad, Mansehra, Hazara in KP, Mazaffarabad in AJK, and G.B to Kashgar in China. At Torkhum it will be connected with Jalalabad in Afghanistan. Even the Eastern route will also connect India through Hyderabad-Mirpurkhas, Wagha border and Lahore. Areas from where the Central Route is passing through in Sindh located will connect this CPEC route with many gas and oil fields. Gas in Sindh is located at Sawan, Miano, Kandora, Mari Deep and oil at Qadirpur, both Oil and Gas can also be fueled at Mirpur khas, Lagari, Even gas pipeline of Pakistan starts from Karachi and moves ahead to Hyderabad, Nawabshah, Sukkur, Kandhkot, Mazaffargarh, Multan, finally Faislabad to Peshwar. Near the Easter Route coal is also located at Sonda, Meting and Thar at some distance. Easter route will also pass near different cities of 76 Sindh, Punjab and KPK having sugar, fertilizers, cement, chemical, iron and steel. Even textile, cotton, woolen and jute industries can also be connected with Eastern route. After looking into the areas of mineral resources and industrial hub, it can be concluded that China thrust for resources will help her to boost her economy at great extent, by doing so China definitely will hold in hand the economic superiority over the world. 17% population lives in Europe while 70% lives in Asia and China will cater their needs. This lust for resources and connectivity with areas rich in natural resources may be a sign of suspicion, while Central route will pass near Uch, Sui and Pirkohgass fields. Near Central Route gas line of Pakistan will also pass near at Jhimpir, Dadu, Larkana, Sui, Dera Gazi Khan and finally at Kot Addu. Western route will also mainly pass through coal reserves at Mach, Sor Range Degari, Ziarat, Duki, Chamalang Dandot and Makarwal.The agreement was signed between Pakistan and Beijing in China on 16 March 2002. Under this agreement 75% cost construction of Gwadar was shifted to China. InsiaZaib had produced resolution in KPK assembly demanding the inclusion of Western alignment as part of CPEC. The resolution further stated that Prime Minister Nawaz should fulfill promises made during the All Parties Conference. Nawaz Sharif assured during APC that Western route will be part of CPEC.Industries around the corridors (Eastern, Western and Central) will minimize fear of pilferage; Afghan Transit Trade (ATT) is an exemplary. China will reach Gulf within 48 hours through rail and road connectivity while it takes 20 day to reach via sea route. Map is given on next page. 77 Map: 6 Sources: Google Map. 4.4 AIRPORT New Gwadar International Airport will be constructed at Gwadar. Its phase one has already been constructed. The port has been constructed 14 km away on Grandani place. Project direct revealed that with respect of area it is the largest port of Pakistan and covers 4300 acres. Its runway will be equal to that of Islamabad’s’ runway and double Dakar airplanes would land and take off. It has been constructed by Chinese Government. It will facilitate 500 car parking, and 3000-ton cargo. Aircrafts PK777, 737, 330, 430 and Airbus Aircrafts like 320 and 200 will be parked. It will handle cargo and duty-free shop would also be constructed. The project will provide three to four thousand jobs to the Pakistanis. Natives are best for cheap labour. Chairman GDA Dostain Jamaldeini revealed that world’s largest 380 plan would also land on Gwadar airport. 78 CHAPTER NO 3: IMPACTS ON THE REGION 1. ROLE OF STATE AND NON-STATE ACTORS The Non-State Actors (NSA) are those organizations, individuals, groups, corporations on which the writ of state seem weakening. Militant, outlawed organizations, terrorist and other anti state groups operate beyond the state control are know as Non State Actors. These sometime are direct or indirect threat to public and their property. Often they try to segregate state units for personal and cultural motives such as BLA in Pakistan and ETIM in China. The role of these two NSA has been linked with CPEC with brief historical background. Lets start with the Non State Actors in Pakistan. Actually Gwadar is part of Mukran history. Balochi were never ready to accede to Pakistan before 1971. Baluchistan became part of Pakistan through referendum, held in 1971. Baluchistan liberation Army is fighting for its liberation from Pakistan. There are some external powers supporting them in this cause. According to the Wiki Leaks cable, a draft of a presentation shared with the US by National Security Adviser Mahmud Ali Durrani stated that Pakistan had not allowed the US to conduct cross-border operations. Parliamentarians were also told that India and Russia were involved in the insurgency in Baluchistan. General (R) Pasha said India has established nine training camps along the Afghan border, where they are training members of the Baloch Liberation Army. He also claimed “India and the UAE (reportedly due to opposition to construction of the Gwadar port) were funding and arming the Baloch. He also claimed that the Russian government was directly involved in funding/training/supporting the insurgency.” (Imtiaz.S.2010) with the development of Gwadar port internal and external powers will not be able to destabilize and secede it from Pakistan because of Chinese presence in the port city. China will be controlling the port for next forty years and shall be responsible for its security. Pakistan’s Defense Minister Ahmad Mukhtar said, “We are grateful to the Chinese government for constructing Gwadar Port. However, we will be more grateful to the Chinese government if a naval base is being constructed at the site of Gwadar for Pakistan.” (Makhdoom, Basit, Khan.2014, p.188) 79 This move will divert external agendas to flourish in. The vision of India and Baluchistan to break away will be perished forever due to the presence of Chinese Naval forces and Pakistan Army. Baluchistan is the largest province of Pakistan which shares common border with Afghanistan and Iran. CPEC will provide security assistance to Porous border and reduce distance of Durand Line and cross border terrorism. China cooperates with US, Afghanistan and Pakistan to revise Afghan Peace process because it is essential for success of CPEC. “The corridor passes through what is currently the heart of the insurgency, says Kaiser Bengali an economic adviser to Baluchistan’s chief minister. He said the notion that the two special brigades formed by the army will be enough to protect road traffic was laughable.” (Boone.J.2017) A few nationalists threatened China to stay way form Gwadar, in response to this blackmailing Xi Jimping visited Pakistan in April 2015 to create a contingent of 12,000 forces to protect China stance on Gwadar and provide security to it, later Pakistan set up special Security Division fully funded by Pakistan itself, with some equipment supported by China. The port will increase the demand for products. Gwadar will connect inside and outside the region. It is also offering real estate for public and private properties. Some cases also appeared when “Gwadar’s lands have been seized by state agencies, the coast guards, the navy, the paramilitaries. Every General has a plot in Gwadar. They say these plots were given because this is a federal project. But this is a land grab.” (Pakistan, ‘report’.2006, p.15) National Accountability Bureau of Pakistan reported on 22 August 2017 that in government properties at Gwadar coastal city worth Rs.70 billion corruptions has been discovered. According to NAB, influential persons got registered 3,167 acres. For acquisition of land by Illegal Land Mafia government was entangled and they got registered 12000 acres on their names later on 9,450 acres was retrieved back. With the assistance of revenue officers, they could reacquire 3,167 acres which values 70 billion rupees. NAB decided to take strict action against land mafia and had begun inquiry into the matter with the determination to project the national resources. 80 1.2. TURNING MAJORITY INTO MINORITY In 1992 the decision taken by Sharif government to develop Gwadar into a deep sea port was welcomed by the Balochi, later on General Musharaf did same but here purport of public behind Musharaf’s intention was adverse. They deemed it another attempt by federal government to occupy their resources and restructure of demographic profile of Gwadar. Although, the project commenced, Balochis were not stakeholders. After the completion of Express Way, local population was gradually expelled from the areas. “The Baloch are equally concerned about the demographic impact of the influx of non-Baloch workers to man and run the port if and when it becomes functional. Non-Baloch has been given preferential access to contracts, jobs and land in Gwadar. The private sector has also been encouraged to embark on massive housing projects in the port city, covering thousands of acres of prime land, that have the potential of altering the demographic balance of the district and even the province” (Pakistan, ‘report’.2006, p.15) The Baluchis wanted to be stakeholders in this business. But, Elite persons out of Baluchistan are purchasing land in Gwadar for business which will turn Baluch into minority, For instance, Karachi where Sindhi people have been marginalized into a minority by the induction of other communities particularly by the federal government through bureaucrats and another high official. As Sindhi had right to control Karachi ports (Karachi and Qasim port) similarly, the Baluchis has right to Gwadar port But with the domination of Chinese and especially Punjabi skilled persons will control the Gwadar port. They will be deprived of it. The work on the port started during Musharraf's tenure. The project couldn’t offer technical and vocational colleges for Baluchistan. People from other provinces technically skilled will avail all employment opportunities from CPEC. Technocrats will be inducted by federal government mostly from Punjab. Gwadar port is not to be governed by the provincial government but the federal government is going to handle all the administrative affairs of the port. Thus generated income from the port will go 81 the Centre and the province will again be in a huge chaos. According to Sixth census conducted in 2017 the percentage of Population of Baluchistan is 3.6%, the statistic revealed that religious group consist on communist statistics in its 6 th census but 7th may include. It is a fact that census was conducted without repatriation of peoples of Gwadar to homes. Doctor Malik Baluch had also demanded to conduct census when people return to Gwadar. Despite such demand 6th census finished, thus the census was also a step towards turning natives to minorities. These people have been paid for the lands; it seems that government is keen to do this by not providing facilities to the public. Their social, cultural, religious and family relationships have been vanishing from their day to day affairs. There are many cottage industries of salt near Pasni, Pasni is in Gwadar where the local people produce ‘Solar Salt’ which is produced by solar reaction over the sea water, it is also known as sea salt. One bed of sea water produces four hundred kilogram of salt which is sold at two rupees per kilogram. It would be injustice to oust them or leave them homeless without job replacement, those who have been living here since centuries they either rely on fishing or salting. Besides, there are no life jackets and training centers available for fishers. Roads have cracked due to the continuous running of heavy traffic. 80% of local people are directly engaged in fishing with the Gwadar port becoming like Dubai and Singapore what would happen to them. A question raises in their mind that where they will dock their boats and how will they access to jetties. 1.3. ILLEGAL TRANSPORTATION Illegal Transportation is also threat to our economy for example 2000 non custom paid vehicles were transported to various provinces in Pakistan, the smuggled goods pass through Waziristan, DI Khan, Mianwali, Zhob,and Malakand Division. Drivers carry goods with heavily loaded trucks and pay Rs.7000 as bribe on every choke point. Goods are collected from Karkhano Mart to Bus Stands commonly known as Haji camp Ada, where these are unloaded and loaded to transport to different cities.“We pay Rs1, 500 to Customs Department squad to let our goods pass to the General Bus Stand (Haji Camp Adda) said another smuggler Haji Javed.” (Zia M.2017) On 16 Feb 2017 another episode of massacre similar to Peshwar School carnage occurred at Lal Shahbaz Qalandar when the attacker blew himself during 82 Friday night Dhamal. After this tragic incident Pakistan demanded 70 suspected militants hiding in Afghanistan, but to counter Islamabad claim similar demand was made by Afghanistan to hand over 85 militant operating form Pakistan. This rift resulted in the blockade of Torkham and Chaman borders resulting in the smuggling from both sides. The price of rice doubled and both sides were losing $200 million dollars. KPK and FATA have been earning Rs100 to Rs130 million via taxes, this amount is meager than the amount earned by Durand line smugglers. With the security of CPEC the grip would also be tightened over them. Chieftains would also earn from illegal tool plazas. All the illegal activities are the product of economic disparity in the country, if a country does not produce ample job opportunities for the educated and illiterates they adopt unfair means for their livelihood. Livelihood is the cause and CPEC is the solution. We need to expand our markets especially to our neighbours to meet the growing demands of literate classes thus exploration of new resources is inevitable. 1.4. THREATS BY BALOCH A few nationalists threatened China to stay way form Gwadar, in response to this blackmailing Xi Jimking visited Pakistan in April 2015 to ask Pakistan to create a contingent of 12,000 forces to protect Chinese on Gwadar and provide security to it. Later, Pakistan set up a special Security Division fully funded by Pakistan itself, only some equipment will be provided by China. Chinese concentration in Pakistan through Gwadar is skeptical, public is double minded China has choice to seize resources of Baluchistan; the security of Roko Dick (fifth largest reserve of Gold and Copper) to China is questionable. People of Gwadar never had reservation against this project but they have been depriving of basic facilities such as health care hospitals, Schools, Drainage system and water since many years. “China and Pakistan must guard against hegemony and unilateralism, and safeguard their own sovereignty and security interests. They must learn the lesson of turbulences from West Asia and North Africa, firmly safeguard their domestic security and stability, steadily promote their reform, and oppose the interference of foreign forces in their internal affairs.” (Zhou’s speech.2014) There are two separatist movements in 83 Pakistan as well as in China; Pakistan is facing BLA in Baluchistan, The hub of Gwadar and CPEC activities while China is facing similar threats from ETIM in Xinjian Province which is also a hub of CPEC on Chinese side. This project may resolve problems of Uighurs and Baluch nationalist. Nationalists are big threat to Pakistan China Economic Corridor (PCEC), we can examine “From 2007 to July 2014, 1,040 terrorist attacks that is 23 percent of the total reported from Baluchistan occurred in Awaran, Gwadar, Kech, Khuzdar, Lasbela, and Panjgur districts, which are on the route of the PCEC.” (Safdar.2014, p.24) Benefits of these secessionists have been discussed in detail in chapter two under benefits for Baluchistan. All the economic activities revolve around public interest, it is seemed from governments attitude that no heed has been paid to local peoples of Gwadar even they are facing scarcity of water and electricity which is basic unit of welfare state. The popularity of CPEC is still ambiguous due to lack of public interest. 1.5. UIGHUR MOVEMENT Uighur are Muslims by birth and Islamic in religion living in Xinjiang. They are culturally connected with Turkmenistan. Xinjiang had been under Chinese control for 200 years but halted Chinese Government in 1933 and 1944, later on they set up an autonomous East Turkestan Republic but in 1949 China over through this short-lived republic with help of Soviet Union’ s military expedition. Thus, China set up Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, Xinjiang borders Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, India and Pakistan. Its inhabitant economically base on agriculture and trade through Silk Road. Chinese government allowed Han Chinese migration in the region thus converting Muslims’ majority into minority. After the debacle of Soviet Union in 1990s Uighur got open support for themselves. But, soon the support was suppressed and separatists went in asylum. Han Chinese are being given best jobs leaving Uighurs in resentment. In July 2014 certain departments of Xinjiang government forbade fasting in Ramzan and it was not for the first and last time. “Uighur militant groups, like the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), seek sanctuary in the Pakistan–Afghanistan border areas. ETIM also has established links with al-Qaeda and the Taliban (and its affiliates) in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The militant groups share operational capabilities with each other. China perceives the ETIM as an obstinate threat, inimical to the Chinese state, and attacking 84 Chinese interests in Pakistan.” (Portia.2017, P.58) Xinjiang is located in the North Western region of China occupying 16% of total land area of the country. To address the economic disparity between West and East China, Chinese Communist Party in 1999 initiated Western Development Program, especially for Uighur Muslims minority. CPEC is also one of an initiative in resolving Uighur separatist conflict. Out of thirteen officially minorities, Uighur are largest in population. It is serving as cross road for China, connecting Tibet in South, Russia, Kazakhstan and Mongolia to the north, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Indian held Kashmir in the west, if the separatist succeed in their objective and got separate East Turkic Muslims state then it would be difficult for China to use Silk route and passage for billionaire project of CPEC because “There are certainly security-related threats linked to the ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor and while most might originate in Pakistan, the Xinjiang province in western China is also facing security threats from Uighur militants and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). Uighur and ETIM militants have long sought shelter in Pakistan’s tribal areas along with the local militants. However, Pakistan’s security forces have fought foreign militants in North Waziristan Agency including ETIM and Uighurs in recent months with the commencement of the military operation Zarb-e-Azbwhich has also weakened the operational capacity of ETIM. Furthermore, US drone strikes in various areas of FATA have also dented the group by eliminating a number of its leaders.” (Safdar.2014, p.6) In 1999, Hassan Mahsum chief leader of ETIM met bin Laden for financial help, since October 2000, ETIM has been given $300,000 USD and Central Asian Uygur Hezbollah had also been financed by him. The government had laid certain causes for example, Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC) announced job having Han Chinese ethnic requirement in the advertisement was a question mark for the Uighur Muslims. Uighur has perturbed Chinese Government in 2014 through knife attacks in a train, when 29 peoples were killed by a Uighur woman. Later on Muslims’ organization publication and displays were banned, even beard. “The man, who chooses to stay anonymous while sharing his story with The Guardian, is a trader from Gilgit Baltistan. Like dozens of men from the region, he married a Chinese Uighur woman and the two have now been forcibly separated.” (Desk, 85 N.2018) Gilgit Baltistan and Uighur Muslims have cultural relations; many Gilgitians have married with them. This is the prior influence of CPEC definitely religious and cultural exchange will increase on after it started harvesting its fruits. G.B and Xinjiang will boost in their exchange of economic products such G.B produces corn, wheat, barley, fruits and it hub of mountaineering while Xinjiang produces minerals, oil, maize, millet, wheat, walnut and rice is also grown in Aksu region. Xinjiang shall boost its economy by approaching to Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean. 1.6. STATE ACTORS Former Chief of Army Staff General Rahil Sharif had reiterated on several occasion that we will make it sure that the project (CPEC) is finalized as per plan. This was not lastly the Army had committed for National Developed Goals but has been participation in every walk of life for public interest and welfare such as its participation in the construction of Karakoram Highway, in free and fair elections and census conduction, fixing dams, clearing irrigation canals and so on. Army has played great role in civil military integration by guarding CPEC routes, constructing certain segments of the corridor and taking upon the responsibility of security for Chinese personals and projects. During the construction phase of K2 Highway 15,000 army men beside Chinese worker were Cutting Mountain in hardship terrains with cost of hundred lives, men and material. Corps of Army Engineers commenced work on K2 highway in 1958, after friendship with China and war against India in 1965; it was decided to connect the road with China. “In phase one a single road was to be constructed from Thakot to Khunjerab. In the second phase it was to be upgraded to highway specifications. The first phase was completed by early 1971. Construction work was halted due to the war that broke out later that year. After the war, work could not be resumed due to shortage of funds. Help was sought from the Chinese. The joint effort resulted in completion of the work in June 1978, when the Highway was officially inaugurated. It was opened to regular traffic a few years later.” (Yamin.2016, p.17) CPEC, its completion and security is a biggest task for Pak Army to be accomplished. The security of this landmark project has been guarded by guardians of 10,000 86 soldiers. In Ministry of Planning to organize the affairs of CPEC a general of Corps of Engineering was inducted. “The Army has placed all its resources for the construction and protection of the Corridor at the disposal of the nation. The Frontier Works Organization (FWO) has been pressed into action to build new segments of roads in Baluchistan. In February this year, the Army chief personally drove the prime minister to show him the GwadarHoshab section of the road built by Army Engineers.” (Yamin.2016, p.13) 1.7. SECURITY OF CPEC Central Asian countries and their natural resources will have access to Pakistan if Afghanistan remains in peace and out of chaos. Security and maintenance of law and order is very crucial for the success of Gwadar port. The port will fulfill national economic requirement. “Baloch nationalists, however, believe this road-building project is aimed at easier extraction of Baluchistan’s natural resources and to enable the Pakistan army and security agencies to expand their control over the province.” (Pakistan, report’. 2006, p.18) The Eastern Alignment of CPEC is being constructed because it is more secure than western alignment. Eastern alignment is also passing through some areas of Baluchistan but these are more volatile. Senate Standing Committee meeting held in June, 2014 briefed the cause of commencement of eastern route of CPEC. It explained that eastern route has been constructed on basis of Built Operate Transfer (BOT). Western route is not being ignored indeed it will be constructed later. To initiate western alignment, it was essential to maintain law and order situation thus operation Zarb -i- Azab proved satisfactory still the security is the collective responsibility of Pakistan and China but Rs: 21.5 billion have been incurred from Pakistan to provide security to Chinese nationals. Special Security Division consists of 9 infantry battalions and 6 Civil Armed forces wings will serve as security forces for CPEC. Hubadar Ali (Signal Corp) appointed in Khuzdar Baluchistan. responding to question said that one Infantry Battalion consist of as many as 600 to 1000 personnel under one lieutenant Colonel and five majors including ten to twelve 2nd lieutenant and 87 lieutenant for its five companies, Alfa, Bravo, Charlie, Delta and Head Quarter company thus 10,000 infantry troops would be guarding this project. Civil Armed Forces (SAFs) consist of Frontier Corp, Police, Baluchistan Constabulary (B.C), Army, and Levies Forces. He further elaborated that the security of Baluchistan has been divided into two areas A-Areas and B-Areas, Police and FC provides security to A-Area while Levies Forces provides security to B-Areas. Where there is CPEC route connected, security forces will be attached. (Ali, H.2017) Given bellow table shows the statistics of security personnel engage in security for Chinese Nationals. Table 8 Provinces Personnel Chinese Punjab 6,346 3,754 Sindh 2,645 1,141 Khyber Pakhtukwan 1,942 698 Baluchistan 3,134 558 Islamabad 439 885 The Express Tribune September 3, 2016 General Rahel Sharif had warned the natives that foreign agencies are active in Baluchistan and especially they are concentrating on Gwadar. Baloch were waiting for 15,000 job opportunities under Special Security Division (SSD). Despite giving a chance to local and natives these posts have already been filled by non natives. While 10,000 job opportunities have been provided to Punjabis under Orange Line, this is not good sign for Baloch that is why they are in state of chaos because no such type of transport facility has been provided to them. Federal government has authentic data or details which reveal that what are benefits for the Baloch and Baluchistan itself. There is no competing port being built in Pakistan against Gwadar port so it has opportunity to make high trade volumes in bulk quantity. The progress in Pakistan is dependent on the security of CPEC and Afghanistan. Central Asian countries can approach to Gwadar only through Afghanistan it means future of these states is in hand of Afghanistan and its stability, to make Gwadar an unfinished agenda and myth of Pakistan, security situation would be spoil. 88 It is fabrication that Gwadar is unsafe, people of Gwadar are peaceful and no report has occurred regarding Gwadaris committing insurgencies against Chinese official or government of Pakistan. It is a fact, that the trouble is present in other parts of Baluchistan. Targeted killing of Chinese engineers has also been reported in these parts. To avoid such heinous crime locals should be inducted into decision making process, in representation and benefits should be given to general public to address their grievances. The locals will make it successful and without their strong support it would be almost impossible to implement plans and make them successful. Conducive security environment will incline investors. National and multinational companies will set up their industries. Coordination and consultation with native Baloch leaders is essential for smooth progress of CPEC and security. There is dire need to address Baloch reservations on Gadani power plant and Saindick project. 2. IMPACTS ON SINO-PAK RELATIONS Following a tradition of real politik i.e., enemy’s enemy is your friend. China and Pakistan came closer to each other after 1962 Sino-Indian war. The border agreement in 1963 between both countries cemented their relations. China supported Pakistan in Indo-Pak war of 1965 and 1971. It also kept supporting Pakistan in development of its nuclear program and military modernization. Both countries have been able to cultivate enduring friendship, popularly known higher than Himalayas and deeper than seas’. China, in order to achieve its super power status in the global politics, has been following a steady way of economic, political and military outreach in the region and over the world in which CPEC makes unique position in its OBOR vision. Economic and strategic relations of both countries are founded upon long term interests and multiple potential benefits. “According to the plan, various industrial parks and five economic zones, dams and energy stations, interlinked through world-class expressways and railway lines, will be constructed along the KashgarGwadar route, bisecting the entire length and breadth of Pakistan. The total cost of this entire set-up is estimated at US$45 billion (later increased to $54), with the project expected to be completed in 2030.” (Rajan.2015, p.4-5) 89 It will increase Military to Military and Economic to Economic relations between the both countries. But, Chinese products have no credibility, what if China doesn’t abide by some terms of agreement? Do we have potential to tackle or response to China? Gwadar natives will be ousted about 40 km away. This shifting is for China’s safety and for her project’s developments, natives who had been living for centuries. The area was grasped by government pushing local aside. Gwadar project would provide residency to 2 million people including 20,000 Chinese residents. Insurgents thought it a change in geography of their separatist areas. Ankara Dam constructed in 1993 with the coast of Rs.560 million provides water to 50% population of Gwadar district. It dries up due to siltation. To quench their thrust resident purchase water tanker, tanker mafia raise price from Rs.7000 to Rs.9000. Price of one-liter Pepsi or Dew is Rs.75 while the price of same size bottle of water in Gwadar reaches to Rs.300. DC Sohail Baluch observed that 0.2 million populations are living in Jiwani and Gwadar, they require 3.5-million-gallon water every day, while 2 million gallons is supplied to the port after every four days. Gwadar port will be connected with Mirani Dam after which 5-million-gallon water will be available for 24 hours. Gwadar is an arid zone, where man and animal drink water from the same pool. On 18 January 2017 Dr. Ahsin Iqbal convened a meeting at Planning Commission Islamabad. He directed GDA to immediately resolve the water crisis in Gwadar port city, further stressed to make Karwat desalinization plant functional to end water crisis for time being. “The development of bilateral relations is facing a new historic opportunity as the two sides have agreed on a long-term plan for an economic corridor to further connect the central and western parts of China with Pakistan. China is now making efforts to speed up its economic restructuring, transform its development model and improve its independent innovation capability to ensure more balanced and sustainable development of the Chinese economy and it is fully implementing the strategy of development in its western region and expanding westward opening-up.” (Du, Y.2013) 90 Sino-Pak long lasting relations has got new path in bilateral relations through CPEC. This path is serving as strain in relations between Pakistan and some other countries, the major reasons behind these tensions is the growing relations between everlasting friends via this corridor project. The friendship is often termed as “higher than the mountains, deeper than the oceans, stronger than steel and sweeter than honey”. The bonds of relations tightened pre and post-cold war era. Pak US alliance forged with SEATO and CENTO which went in vain after Pakistan’s war against India in 1965 and 1971. At the critical moments China came forward with technical and military assistance. For the progress and prosperity of the corridor stability of Pakistan is essential. Uighur may create hurdles in the way to CPEC thus Pakistan condemned ETIM officially because Xinjiang is center of corridor. Increasing populations of the both countries demand job opportunities within and abroad. Thus, the corridor is the significance opportunity for livelihood and energy requirements. “Pakistan alone thanks to the massive inflow of foreign investments for CPEC projects could see more than 10% GDP growth rate and 2.5 million job opportunities. CPEC is also set to act as a bridge for China’s ambitious Maritime Silk Route which will link over 3 billion people in Asia, Africa and Europe.” (Aman, K.2018.p.13) Pakistan is facing hurdles in industrial modernization, energy and resources of which corridor is the solution. 3. REGIONAL CONCERNS OVER CPEC “Pakistan lies at the intersection of big powers’ rivalries and politics. It is physically accessible to a number of big powers. Consequently, any development in Pakistan that has an impact on the security and viability of that country will inevitably attract the attention of a number of external powers. These powers are China, the Soviet Union [now Russia], Iran, and Afghanistan. If these powers get actively interested in the developments in that country, it is not likely that the United States, as the largest power in the world and a military ally of Pakistan, will lie low and keep away from the area.” (Subrahmanyam.1974, p.71) 91 The initial era of Pak-China relationship was Military Oriented only but CPEC has shifted this to Economic Oriented. Recently CPEC is unilateral project between iron brothers but in the days to come it will be multilateral for regional countries. China will approach Indian Ocean expanding trade from the East to West Asia. “Geopolitically Pakistan is the most suitable economic corridor for trade and transit activities providing a gateway to Central Asia, South Asia, East Asia and West Asia. Its role has remained important both during the cold-war and post-cold war era due to its geostrategic location and is neighbor to the rising economies of the region namely China and India.” (Akbar, A.2016 p.2) There are five important countries located on CPEC connectivity and connect with some other countries of the region, like Tajikistan connects with China, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan connects with Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Pakistan, China and Iran. India connects with Myanmar, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, China and Pakistan. Iran connects with Iraq, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Armenia and Azerbaijan and China connects with fourteen countries, they are North Korea, Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam. The geographical connectivity can be linked with their neighbouring countries. In this sense CPEC will serve as a circle for covering countries within its economic circle. Although there are certain reservations and hurdle in its way such as India over G.B and Kashmir, Afghanistan as a buffer state for outlawed and foreigners. CPEC is dependent on other countries getting accepted it. It is providing above countries an opportunity to unearth their resources and expand their market to the regional. After an end to gulf resources above mentioned and unmentioned countries can have benefit from Central Asian countries thus ending their regional dependency through CPEC. “Kazakhstan too has a lot of oil but no means to access the international markets. A pipeline is also planned to transport its oil to Gwadar and subsequently the rest of the world.” (Portia.2017. p.56) The corridor is a game changer not only for Sino-Pak but also for the regional countries. Pakistan deems this project a chance to develop military and economic might against India. Importance of CPEC for the region can be measured from two theories, first “Economic Opportunity Cost Hypothesis” it states that economically interdependent states can increase economic integration and reduce conflicts. Thus, 92 among the regional countries not only Pakistan is interdependent but also others. CPEC is an opportunity to reduce conflict and quench the thrust of economical interdependence. Economic advantages prevent countries from war and conflicts, Secondly, regional integration defined in “Neo Functionalism Theory” is cooperation in one field motivates cooperation in another fields. CPEC is not only a project of cooperation on transit routes but also in the fields of energy, connectivity, transportation, cultural exchange, regional integration, and fiber optics. It has diverse fields dispersing to every nook and corner of Asia. The fact is that CPEC is not one and only indeed it is part of OBOR also known as Belt and Road Initiative. CPEC is one of part of six corridors under OBOR, rest are China Mongolia Russia Corridor, New Eurasian land bridge, China Central Asia West Asia Corridor, China Bangladesh India Corridor, China Indo-China Corridor and Maritime Silk Road. Afghanistan will stabilize its economy and trade, if linked with CPEC. In 2015 export of Afghanistan such as dry fruit, rugs, medicinal herbs and carpet were only exported in India and Pakistan. Iron Ore and Copper are in abundance in Afghanistan, but they have no access to other Chinese markets. In 2008 Chinese Government signed $3 billion USD with Kabul to unearth MesAynak second largest copper deposit in the world but failed to accomplish due to security and Taliban’s attacks. CPEC can be a trilateral to gain stability, security, development, and connectivity especially in three core areas. 1. Security of Afghanistan can be improved by direct or indirect involvement of neighbouring countries. China had played mediator role in peace talks. Pakistan can offer assistance in operation like Zarb-e-Azab in Afhgnistan while China can provide financial assistance for the purpose. 2. Afghanistan can be part of regional integration via CPEC and can harvest benefits in energy and trade. It should develop confidence in Pakistan and China rather than India for infrastructure and developments to come. 3. Afghanistan needs to open up its natural resources for export and investments, for example Chinese government is anxious about Afghanistan’s natural resources and has capital to invest in these resources in this way it will enjoy Foreign Direct Investment. 93 A question arises in every mind, is it important for Afghanistan to join CPEC? Answer from Eklil Ahmad Hakimi, Afghanistan Finance Minister who said, “China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) project could provide hope and opportunities for the war-torn Afghanistan. However, in order for the “hope and opportunities” to take shape, Afghanistan must cooperate with Pakistan and China in order to make its inclusion into CPEC a reality”. Governor Baluchistan M.K Achakzai attributed CPEC as profitable investment for Baluchistan. He invited Russian investors when he called on Russian’s Consul General Dr. Aleksander G Khozin. He reiterated on Baluchistan’s importance as agrarian province and committed security for Russian investors. He asked them to gain benefits from fruits, and vegetables. Russian Cooperation can take Pakistan to new world order such as “China, Pakistan and Russia are bringing multipolar world order to challenge the American dominated unipolar world order with CPEC. No world order is able to withstand the test of time.” (Aman, K.2018.p.13) America has been controlling the world for some decades, the possible emergence of accord between, China, Russia and Pakistan will a challenge to her domination for setting up multipolar world. Thus, making Pakistan a major power in years to come Triangular countries i.e. Russia, Pakistan and China under multipolar system are desirous for peace and end to war in Afghanistan and beyond against the unipolar system. “This paves the way for a multipolar world order, if Russia joins CPEC, it would send clear signal straight to America, telling Donald Trump that China and Russia are gaining serious control over Eurasia.” (Aman, K.2018.p.13) Eurasian Economic Union a project of Russia has already been connected with Belt and Road Initiative which is key factor in this new dimension and trend in the power relationship between these countries. Pak-Russian joint military exercises are instance of increasing ties between Pakistan and Russia and over these rival India is not happy. CPEC will provide better economic and security environment for Russian against U.S military presence in Afghanistan and ISIS in Chechnya. The U.S and India’s agreement to use military and military basis known as “Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement” signed in August 2016, is the contrary reaction to CPEC. The intention behind the pact is to counter Chinese increasing influence in Asia. India has military facilities such as in Afghanistan, U.S will use 94 these facilities if required without building from scratch. U.S media report revealed that India is hostile with China over border dispute but has moved to a new competition over strategic and economic influence. For the purpose India is investing into Chabahar but Russia, together with China and Pakistan can counter US-Indian hegemony. This could only be possible if Russia joins CPEC altogether. 4. INDIAN Both out of the British India as independent states since August, 1947, Pakistan and India have always maintained estranged relations with each other. The legacy of unjust Radcliff award has been a permanent factor of their adversarial relations. Kashmir being the major factor, has led both states to fighting three totals and one limited war. The war of 1971 culminated in disintegration of Pakistan also. The gravity of their enmity has led both countries to becoming nuclear power. Besides, both have been enhancing their arsenals of conventional weapons. Despite all, both are member of SAARC and SCO, however, the level of their cooperation is minimal changing dynamics of global politics in the region has also greatly affected their relations. Becoming NON-NATO FRONT LINE ALLY of the United States of America in the War on Terror has not benefited Pakistan; India has been able to cultivate favours from the USA at the cost of Pakistan. After Donald Trump entry into office, the USA’s policy towards Pakistan has become unfriendly whereas he has given undue and exaggerated significance to India in the region. Both have indeed joined to undermine the Sino-Pak economic and military relations. India, having been bolstered by the USA, has been violating ceasefire agreement on LOC and supporting fifth columns in Baluchistan and Sindh against integration of Pakistan. its spy agency RAW has been very active inside Afghanistan and Pakistan to sabotage CPEC and create political, economic and military disharmony in the country. The episode of spy Kalboshan Jadav is a case in point. India shares 1610 km border with Pakistan. Jinnah snatched Pakistan from the Indian mouth on 14 August 1947. 95 The objectives and reservation of India can best be summarized  The route which passes through G.B and AJK.  How China can pass its corridor route on long term basis while the verdict on AJK and JK has not been resolved till today.  China is enclosing India on Indian Ocean  Pakistan can bloc Indian entry towards gulf and Hormuz, via this it can pressurize India to liberate Kashmir.  Pakistan will free its trading ports from the Indian threats as in past India had attacked on Karachi Port. A detailed explanation has been given below. 4.1. MILITARY PURPOSE OF GWADAR “Most countries in South Asia have welcomed these Chinese initiatives but India has been reticent many observers in India see these initiatives as a Chinese attempt to further its expansionist agenda in the wide Indo-Pacific region and to achieve a strategic encirclement of India in South Asia contentious bilateral issues such as the border dispute remain unresolved. India is also deeply suspicious regarding China’s relations with Pakistan, which in its opinion, are aimed at containing India.” (Rajan.2015, p.2-3) Development on Gwadar means Pakistan wants strongest Navy or naval forces against India. India deems that infrastructure developments of CPEC will enhance the influence of Pakistan on Afghanistan and Central Asian States. India thinks that through project China is encircling India from South, East and West. “Trust between China and India remains low. At the same time cooperation between India and the US has increased tensions over navigation routes in the Indian Ocean. Chinese foreign policy analysts perceive this as a security challenge and think that China should take precautions.” (Francois, Godement-2014) To disprove Indian allegations that Pakistan is hatching any conspiracy against India it is worth mentioning here that militaries of both countries have less meeting and less interest in policy making. The economic cooperation is more than military cooperation. 96 Bangladesh-China-India Myanmar Corridor OBOR including CPEC and Chinese investment in Hambantota in Sri Lanka is clarifying that China has economic reasons in CPEC rather than military. Through Bangladesh-China-India Myanmar Corridor China will connect its Yunnan province with the Bay of Bengal. Similarly, China will be connecting to Arabian via CPEC and on land via OBOR. Map: 7 From the figure it is obvious that China will connect itself with Russia, Central Asia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran for import and export purpose. CPEC is only Southern Corridor, while Northern Corridor will Connect China with Russia, Berlin and Paris. Central Corridor will connect China with Central Asia, Afghanistan, and Iran as shown in the map. Hence it is proved that CPEC has no any military to military cooperation. Indeed it is economic to economic cooperation. Interest of former COAS Gen Raheel Sharif and his strategies dealing with terrorists near surrounding areas of CPEC and Baluchistan was misinterpreted which created the notion that India is being engulfed by Pak-China. The route of Southern Corridor does include India and its puppet Afghanistan, although India has some reservation on Chinese involvement in 97 the area neighboring India such as Hambantota near Sri Lanka, Sittwe near Myanmar and in Chittagong near Bangladesh. It is against justice to declare Pakistan culprit of a crime that it has not committed. No Chinese and Pakistani army personnel have been deployed, except those personnel (14506) deployed for the security of Chinese official (7036) in all provinces including. List of personnel on provincial level is mentioned in chapter two. Special Security Division consists of 9 infantry battalions and 6 Civil Armed forces to guard CPEC. Pakistan is investing Rs.21. 5 billion for the security. If it had been against India definitely it would have been in billion dollars rather than billion in rupees. It is clear from the study of Alok Rajan a Research Associate at Institute of Chinese Studies and Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi that CPEC was the result of a meeting with Chinese premier Li Keqiang in Pakistan. The meeting was held after his visit to India while during the visit he agreed to dig into BangladeshChina-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM-EC). Purpose of this BCIM was to connect North Eastern region of India Yunnan Province of China. Further he mentions in paper he states, “Both these proposals assume significance in the context of certain other developments in South Asia and the broader Asia-Pacific region, in particular China’s plans to open up and develop its landlocked western regions in line with its ‘Marching Westwards Policy and the ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR) project, a new initiative in Chinese foreign policy.” (Rajan.2015, p.2) India claimed that China and Pakistan are tightening military strategic grip over India seem idle one, both the proposals have purpose of development in South Asia, Asia Pacific region, and peculiar aim of China is to develop her landlocked western regions under Marching Westwards Policy and OBOR. Indeed, from the facts that first visit of Chinese premier was paid to India for same purpose, thus its reality that China wants regional connectivity other than military. CPEC is not individual project but it is part of OBOR which proves the motive of regional connectivity. China took effective role in setting up Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to provide financial assistance to under developed countries for infrastructural development. 98 “India’s static understanding of the regional environment, fails substantially to take into account the fluidity, complexity and nuances of contemporary regional dynamics in South Asia, driven by diverse processes of regional cooperation. It is against this backdrop that the proposed CPEC assumes crucial significance for Indian policymakers. The proposal presents some difficult yet interesting and promising options for India which, if exercised boldly and innovatively, may open new vistas of regional cooperation, stability and economic growth.” (Rajan.2015, p.3) However, suspension and opposition to every China Pakistan project by India are baseless. India has two option s either to protest against CPEC or propose trilateral collaboration with Pakistan and China. India needs to resume links between Indian, Pakistan and China. These links can be linked with BCIM-EC and CPEC via Amritsar-Kolkata Industrial Corridor and Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor. These links will have no hue or cry over CPEC. Similarly, China can be linked with India through Ladakh and Tibet. In Dec 2015 construction work on TAPI commenced. Under this project Turkmenistan will transport to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. The project will start its journey form Ashgabat in Turkmenistan, to Herat and Kandahar in Afghanistan, in Pakistan it will pass through Chaman and Quetta in Baluchistan and Multan in Punjab and will end in Fazilka in India. Thus, the security of TAPI is much vital as of CPEC. To make TAPI a successful project India should ponder over the security environment of Baluchistan. If we compare the annual trade among Pakistan, India and China, between China and Pakistan is more than $12 billion while between China and India is more than $100 billion annually. Thus, India can be equal beneficiary in this project. 99 4.2. INDIA ON GILGIT AND KASHMIR “This proposed corridor will pass through Gilgit-Baltistan which is a disputed territory according to the constitution of Pakistan and UN resolutions relating to Kashmir. He believes that China would never use a corridor, in the long-term, which passes through a disputed territory. He maintains that China is eyeing the Chabahar port in Iran, situated at a distance of 100 KM from Gwadar, for transit trade.” (Adnan, A.2015) CPEC is biggest opportunity for Kashmir; it can be centre for India for regional connectivity with Central and South Asia. In this case Kashmir will serve as nucleus. Suggestion of Umar Farooque leader of Hurriat Conference in this regard is essential he suggested to India that CPEC would connect India with Silk route. India can be part of this without solving Kashmir issue. Common masses from both side of LOC will collectively be beneficial. Chinese invitation to India to become part of CPEC and resolve Kashmir issue is praiseworthy. It increases trade and commerce between India and Pakistan. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said,” The development of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor does not affect China’s position on the Kashmir issue,” This project will not only serve for time being but in future as well, when the OPEC countries will be facing shortage at that time India would have depend on Central countries. If she will have to plan in future for its connectivity with CPEC, than why not now? Even South East Asian countries and countries geographically adjacent with India would be partner with her. Indian ports will serve to South East Asian Nation on the same ground as Gwadar is serving under CPEC. Its ports will be used for import and export to Central Asian Countries in future. 75% population of the world live in Asia, while 25% lives in other continents, 75% is enough for production and consumption of Indian goods. CPEC will not impact on Indian stance on Kashmir on the same footing as Karakoram Highway did. Chinese Foreign Minister Mr. Wang Yi has already endorsed Chinese stance on CPEC, he said, “China had no relationship with the dispute on Kashmir”. It is worth mentioning here that CPEC is an Economic project neither it is military based and nor have business with border dispute, in doing so China would loss the security environment around alignments and routes. Good suggestions have already been 100 given to Indian in this regard but, it is worth to mention one as an example from Indian held statesmen. “Mehbooba Mufti, the chief minister of India-held Kashmir, has recently suggested building of a corridor — similar to the CPEC — between South Asia and Central Asia with Kashmir as its nucleus. She points out that “taking advantage of its geographical location, Jammu and Kashmir could become a nucleus towards forging a new economic alliance in the region.” (Shah, F.2017, p.4) despite these suggestions Modi Government is neither ready to pay heed to it or willing to boost economic ties under this project. India well knows that relations are based on mutual interest; both countries have vested interests so they should think for common economic benefits as the both are member of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation. They follow lofty principle of mutual cooperation among the member countries but India is so much aggressive to make. “To make Kashmir its jugular vein now India have decided for another suggestion and technique that is to construct a wall on India border with 198 km long, 135 feet wide and 10 feet high.” (Nagma.2016, p.27) Inspector General Border Security Forces Jammu Frontier S.S Tomar had announced the construction of this wall with the suggestion that it would be helpful to stop skirmishes on the border and mortality rate can also be reduced. It is vivid from the wall that is would be used to fire on Pakistani side of Kashmir, this wall cross through 22 villages, it will be between districts of Ankor and Kathwa, the area will be purchased from the peoples these districts. It will bisect Pakistan and Indian held Kashmiri families. India has always tried hard to halt freedom activities; the constructed wall of Berlin was smashed after 28 years of its construction in 1961. It is obvious that how India is fanatics towards Kashmir issue, no doubt that if India set back from CPEC it will not only make the Kashmir issue is tenser but also the people of Kashmir will be deprived from regional connectivity with Pakistan and region particularly. It is another attempt by Indian Government to turned down Chinese offer to CPEC. Southern Commander Lieutenant General Aamir Riaz on 20 December requested at Quetta while his speech he stressed on CPEC a need for India and to forget enmity. “We must strive to make our neighbours more friendly in politics, economically more tied to us, and we must have deeper security cooperation and closer people-to-people ties.” (Economic Times.2013) Mr. Xi during his visit to Saudi Arabia declared that China has no intention for proxies or influence in the region. There is no best dialogue 101 to maintain peace in the region but economic development. And CPEC will be useful in this regard. Geographic economic is essential and fruitful than geographic politics. It will result in cooperation rather than clashes. 4.3. INDIAN INVOLVEMENT IN BALUCHISTAN “According to the WikiLeaks cable, a draft of a presentation shared with the US by National Security Adviser Mahmud Ali Durrani stated that Pakistan had not allowed the US to conduct cross-border operations. Parliamentarians were also told that India and were involved in the insurgency in Balochistan. Pasha said India has established nine training camps along the Afghan border, where they are training members of the Baloch Liberation Army. He also claimed “India and the UAE (reportedly due to opposition to the construction of the Gwadar port) were funding and arming the Baloch. Pasha also claimed that the Russian government was directly involved in funding/training/supporting the insurgency.” (Imtiaz, S.2010) Trump on 21 August 2017 spoke in his speech that,”we can no longer be silent about Pakistan’s safe havens for terrorist that are fighting” further he said,” we have been paying Pakistan billions and billions of dollars at the same time they are housing the every terrorist that we are fighting”. He had also wish for Indian to take on her allow her to sabotage the security environment in Baluchistan (CPEC located). International community is aware with role Indian role in Baluchistan. She supports BLA in its anti-Pakistan activities, Gul Bhushan Jadev who was a RAW agent arrested from Baluchistan. In his confessional statement he made India responsible in such activities in the province. She should leave such nonsense and should collaborate with Pakistan in CPEC for her own benefits, other than making it an issue. On 8 September 2017 Khawaja Asif visited China and held discussion with his counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing. The minister affirmed Pakistan CPEC commitment to provide security to the project and role of Pakistan successful operations (Zar-i-Azb and Rad ul Fasad) against ETIM and other terrorist groups. ETIM is also threat to Pakistan. Indian 102 supporting BLA deems that it is retaliating from Pakistan’s support to Khalistan movement. Due lack of education in Baluch nationalist Indian dreams come true but with development of CPEC, educational and technical institutions and basis health facilities civic life will be change. They will depend on self rather than chieftains who mostly mislead them. Through CPEC Pakistan economy will not get boost only but also military and public life get strength. “New Delhi is one of the biggest international donors in Afghanistan and has committed development assistance to the tune of $2bn to Kabul. This, among other things, has raised the hackles of anti-India elements in Afghanistan and beyond, and led to repeated attacks on Indians and Indian interests in Afghanistan.” (Borah, R.2016) $2 billion investments in Afghanistan by India for development would not be enough for Indian objectives to compete with Gwadar but security improvement would be essential part. In December 2016 India bestowed MI-15 helicopter to Afghanistan as gift. For the success of Chabahar and competition with Gwadar would only be possible is security environment improves in Afghanistan. On January 17, speaking at a seminar in New Delhi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said: “Only by respecting the sovereignty of countries involved, can regional connectivity corridors fulfill their promise and avoid differences and discord.” (Fahad, S.2017) If anyone bears in mind the presence of Indian Army on Jammu and Kashmir, her intervention in internal affairs of Pakistan, engagement in sabotage activities and skirmishes on LOC, his words,” Only by respecting the sovereignty …………. avoid differences and discord” can be thwarted towards him. On two occasions Pakistan has offered to India a NO War Pact but it is India always turned down the offer. Pakistan always remained ready to maintain respect, internal affairs, and sovereignty of other states despite “many key players are trying to destabilize it by covert activities. International Media has tinted a few Indian clandestine activities to hinder its development by causing unrest in Baluchistan to divert the global attention from Kashmir Issue.” (Malik.H.2013, p.70) 103 5. IRAN Until Pakistan was out of influence of Saudi Arabia and Iran was a Sunni ruled neighbouring state of Pakistan, both countries have very cordial relations. In 1964 both along with Turkey constituted Regional Cooperation for Development (RCD). However, both were under USA’s alliance system. Shia revolution in Iran actually brought paradigm shift in the country’s foreign policy at regional and global level. Iran cut off relations with USA until 2015 and it started distancing itself from Pakistan as it was being dragged into influence of Saudi Arabia. However, in 1985 both countries revived along with Turkey, the spirit of regional development in the shape of economic cooperation organization. In spite of sectarian differences, both countries have been maintaining good mutual bilateral relations. Pakistan has been trying to keep away from Saudi Iran cold war in the Middle East. However, Iran’s growing tilt towards India is not welcomed by Pakistan. Pakistan has good relations with Iran even Iran is supplying 69 megawatt electricity to port but 227 megawatt will be needed for it. In January 2016 Sanaullah Zahri Chief Minister of Baluchistan and his Iranian counterpart Aqa Ali Osaat Hashmi agreed to construct railway line which will connect Chabahar and Gwadar, main while Hashmi increased the 7 MW to 30 MW of electricity in Makran district and would continue supplying 1000 MW to National Grid. Due to sanctions on Iran, she was separated from transshipment. U.S signed an accord with Iran, now Iran is busy on shores to minimize the gravity of CPEC. Donald Trump barred six Muslims countries entry into USA including Iran and he is not happy with the dealt that eases sanction on Iran. Under these circumstances Iran desires for CPEC and job opportunities plus investment in Iran. CPEC will provide safe cheapest entry of Iranian immigrant to China and adjoining countries. Iranian president Hassan Rohani assured to Nawaz Sharif about his ambition to join CPEC. Trade with Iran increased up to 30% and in 2021will cross $5 billion. It is a fact that among the Gulf countries Iran and UAE deem Gwadar as a rival port in the region. They are hesitated because the port would snatch the trade and economic activities which they are enjoining so their interests are divergent with regard to up gradation of Gwadar port. 104 5.1. CHABAHAR “The vision of India to left Pakistan behind has been spoiled. India kept CPEC aside but has now entangled into chaos because international company has reversed its decision to invest in Chabahar”. (Modi, N.2017 [YouTube]).India faced threats from U.S on IPI project while her investment had no threat for sanctions on Chabahar and road linking with Afghanistan. India was asked to renege from IPI. The idea for Construction of Chabahar come in 2003 during Wajpai government but could not materialize due to sanctions on Iran. India returned back $6 billion to Iran, which withheld by India and even it paved way for Chabahar investment. India has termed it South Transport North Corridor (STNC). It will reach Europe by passing through Balkan states and will reduce distance up to 60 percent. India will be free to enter into Afghanistan setting back Pakistan. India will use it for geopolitical factors. Gwadar was needed to keep India at arm length from port activities but Chabahar will provide similar facility. Indeed, India has made her presence near Gwadar. India will also invest 100 million rupees for free economic zone. India will construct 900 km railway line from Zahidan to Mashad and also interested in constructions of road. “Siddique Baloch, Editor-in-Chief of Balochistan Express, veteran journalist and expert on economic affairs, terms controversy on route change of CPEC as nonsensical According to him, this proposed corridor will pass through Gilgit-Baltistan which is a disputed territory according to constitution of Pakistan and UN resolutions relating to Kashmir. He believes that China would never use a corridor, in the long-term, which passes through a disputed territory. He maintains that China is eyeing the Chabahar port in Iran, situated at a distance of 100 KM from Gwadar, for transit trade.” (Adnan, A.2015) One may not agree with Mr. Siddique on certain ground, first huge investment is in Gwadar not in Chabahar, second if Chabahar be the priority of China than she must have to pass through Pakistan, third CPEC is demilitarized and last but not least Chabahar cannot work in the monsoon because it is not a seasonal port. In June Modi visited China and termed CPEC “unaccepted” CPEC would provide facilities to India to access to Central Asia. China has been neutral on Kashmir issue but CPEC is being considered China’s interference in the region and the issue. Beside CPEC China is 105 also constructing port in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh indeed it cannot be seemed as posing threat to India. Gwadar port may turn to Chinese naval base against India. Andrew Small who’s book has already been reviewed, in an interview to Al-Jazeera reiterated the state of India he said,“He explains that India does not need to join CPEC anyway - in the future, it could maintain its formal objections to the initiative but still deepen trade relations with Pakistan, and in the process implicitly be utilizing CPEC infrastructure, energy projects, industrial zones and more”. To bypass Pakistan India invested in Chabahar for the same purpose China did here. This development would connect India with Afghanistan, Central Asian and Europe. This access to India had already been denied by Pakistan. India investment would be fruitful for Afghanistan which would be connected with Gulf and Indian Ocean. Chabahar port will be connected with road link constructed by India in 2009 in the province of Nimruz Afghanistan. Indian investment against Gwadar and CPEC have now entangled India, foreign companies are now not interested in investment in Chabahar due to Trumps threats of more sanctions on Iran and against the accord signed with Obama administration. It is senseless and futile idea to connect India with Central Asia and Afghanistan through Chabahar because post 9/11 scenario is witness that US could not wipe out terrorist from Afghanistan. the condition of India would be like an owner who fails to protect the milk from a cat. If we assume that it (Chabahar) is better to beat Gwadar. What would happen if US could not protect Afghanistan from the clutches of outlawed? It will face serious complications if once again Gwadar became buffer state for the third time and hub for the terrorist activities. India sees CPEC a direct challenge and her investment in Chabahar is response to it. She fears that China would use Gwadar as military base. The Hindu newspaper suggested to Modi government to take part in this mega project which would connect with 64 countries. China will import raw material from Pakistan the same raw material after been converted into finished goods will be sold to Pakistan. India pressurized Sri lanka to discontinue port for China, with this discontinuation China has no option but to use Gwadar for military purposes she maintains her claim. India is happy with economic progress of Pakistan but it raises questions when the port turns into military base. India can directly connect with self-developing corridor Although Iran is engaging 106 India one hand on the other Chinese train have covered distance of 10399 km in 14 Days to Tehran. It is clear now that Iran also wants China, in her trading partners and this would lead to Iran and India connectivity with CPEC. Chinese trade with Iran was $4 billion in 2003 but it remained $53 billion in 2013. It means that Chinese trade with Iran will be much greater as compare to India in Iran. Chabahar investment will provide sea to Afghanistan bypassing Pakistan. It is a good suggestion for India to become part of this is to connect India through India China Silk Route Corridor (ICSRC) which can be connected via Ladakh region by passing Pakistan. “On September 12, 2000, India signed an agreement with Iran and Russia for the development of the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC). This corridor will enable the movement of goods from Indian ports to Bandar Abbas in Iran and then on to Central Asia via rail and road linkages and the Caspian Sea route, bypassing Pakistan.” (Portia B.2017, p.60) Both China and Pakistan are directly landlocked with each other while India and Iran are not; China and Pakistan are directly linked with Arabian Sea. It will be a win-win situation for Pakistan. On 28 February 2018 personal participation in seminar held at Shah Abdul Latif University, presented by Irfan Ali on title ‘Post 9/11 Pak-Iran Relations: Politics, Economic Challenges and Opportunities’ under the supervision of Prof.Dr. Amir Ahmad Khuhro. Responding to question the scholar replied that India is investing in Chanbar to as pressure tactics. Indian investment in Chabarhar is blunder because of no land route connectivity between India and Iran as alternative land route like China through CPEC. “However, the Chahbahar Port is not likely to be a zero-sum game for Pakistan, Pakistan can also be part of Chabahar trilateral arrangement and both Gwadar and Chabahar ports could be linked as regional ports fostering regional trades. the Iranian side has already observed Pakistan to be part of the Chabahar Port trilateral arrangement and not to consider the port as rival to Gwadar Port.” (Akbar, A.2016, p.2) In this way more, benefits can be availed from both ports and regional connectivity and economic ties will get boost. 107 6. SAUDI ARABIA Pakistan and Saudi have been enjoying cordial bilateral economic, military, cultural and educational relations. Sunni-religious factor has been cementing element in their relations. Pakistan has been providing military support in terms of equipments and training to Saudi Arabia. In return, Saudi Arabia has been giving financial support to Pakistan. it has also financed nuclear program of Pakistan. Pakistan has also taken leading role in the Islamic counter Terrorism Military Alliance. However, Pakistan has been making efforts to bring balance in relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran. During his Xi visit to Suadi Arabia,“We are not setting up proxies or building a sphere of influence in the region”. In 2006 Saudi Arabia tired to see assistance in exporting Saudi Oil to China. CPEC will fullfil this demand even During Xi visit to Saudi Arabia he offered to set up oil refinery at Yanbu Industrial city on the ‘Red Sea’. Among the gulf countries Iran and UAE deem Gwadar as an rival port in region, they hesitate because the port would snatch the trade and economic activities which they are enjoining so their interest are divergent with reguard to up gradation of Gwadar port. “Saudi Arabia will soon undertake investments at Gwadar Port and join the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), The News has reported quoting Saudi Ambassador to Pakistan, Nawaf Saeed Ahmed Al-Maliki, in a story published on Friday.” (Dawn Sept-22, 2017) The Minister termed the investment as Fraternal and trade ties “We think that Pakistan will make progress through this project,” Al-Maliki said, on the same day he had announced scholarships for Pakistan students at S. Arab universities. New avenues will be opened to enhance trade volume and CPEC will be one of them. S. Arabia entry into billionaire project will help to resolve Iran Arab tie through Pakistan as mediator. “The UAE has committed to invest US$ 30 billion, with a further understanding of US$ 60 billion to build hotels, resorts and recreation centers in Gwadar. Other Arab countries are expected to announce plans in the area.” (Portia.2017, p.56) Adherence of Iran and S.Arabia with CPEC can forge unity of Umma. Both countries will improve trade and regional connectivity. This projective will strengthen Pakistan’s relations with Saudi Arabia; it was she who provided 2 billion aid after sanctions were imposed on Pakistan due nuclear test. Top Seven Busy ports are in Asia while the GCC port is busiest of the world. It is a fact that other ports of India, Pakistan and Iran are not in the fore mentioned but Gwadar is expected to compete with Dubai port which ranks seventh in the world. China imports 60% from 108 Gulf oil which has to go 14,500 km to Xinjinag via Malacca route. Gwadar will reduce distance for Gulf exportation to China and other regional countries. In 2006 Saudi Arabia had asked for Pakistan’s help to expand her oil to China. It will allow Saudi Arabia to export, import and dock at Gwadar as Oman has been using in past. Saudi Arabia is the largest exporter of oil in GCC, CPEC would help S. Arabia to minimize her dependency on U.S. Countries like UAE, Oman, S. Arabia, Iran and Iraq can have facilities of route, trade, and storage warehousing. China is also willing to Saudi Arabia gas via Qatarian Gusa Gas Company the same has decided to venture for Pakistan through sea pipelines. Port Rashid of Dubai is home to more than 5000 companies from 120 states all over the world. “China’s investment for expanding Gwadar port in Pakistan will have negative impact on the UAE’s interests”. Dr. Albanna. Qatar to counter Dubai’s pressure has opted to invest 15% in the construction sector of CPEC. S.Arabia oil, Qatar’s gas and UAE’s resort will boost if connected with regional hub i.e. CPEC. 7. UNITED SATES The World War II (1939-45) created bipolar world order, one the capitalist led by the USA and another communist led by USSR. Their tussle, known as cold war, compelled the newly independent states of Asia and Africa to ally with either of the bloc. Given India’s tilt towards USSR, Pakistan allied itself with the USA by signing SEATO and CENTO (1950s). However, except economic and military benefits Pakistan was disillusioned by the USA in regional and global politics. So, in (1970s) Pakistan distanced itself from alliance of the USA, but soviet’s invasion of Afghanistan its potential effects upon Pakistan, made the country ally of USA. But after defeat of Soviet in Afghanistan in 1988, USA again abandoned Pakistan. Rather, it imposed economic military sanctions upon Pakistan, due to latter’s Nuclear program. The decade of 1990s was a period of cold relations between both countries; however, the incident of 9/11 compelled USA to hug Pakistan once again. No doubt, Pakistan has sincerely fought and stood with USA War on Terror, yet it is not satisfied with Pakistan. Rather, the USA has now given more significance to India in order to sabotage China and Pakistan’s deepening economic and military friendship and contain rise of China as future super power. After the cold war US is being monitoring Indian Ocean so closely. “With the complete withdrawal of US and 109 NATO forces from Afghanistan pending, the prospects for the counterterrorism campaign in South Asia are uncertain. So China and Pakistan need to maintain communication, strengthen consultation, deepen cooperation and support each other in dealing with the challenges of terrorism and the Afghan issue.” (Du, Y.2013) “The African continent has long remained under the dominance of the West- first Europe and then the United States. Until recently US was the largest trading partner of Africa, however, since 2009 China has surpassed US as the largest partner of the African continent. Africa is also the second largest supplier of oil to China. African countries which only hold 9-10% of the world’s oil, account for one-third of China’s oil imports. Angola is the second-largest supplier of oil to China after Saudi Arabia. Other African countries that export oil to China include Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, Gabon, Algeria, Libya, Chad, and Kenya. During the last one decade China-Africa trade volume has shown a year on year growth of more than 20% reaching $216 billion in 2013 under the aegis of Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC)” (Azhar, A.2015, p.3) “On the other hand, analysts are of the opinion that the cantonments being planned and built in Baluchistan are at the behest of the US so that they can be used to counter Iran's nuclear ambitions.” ( Shaikh, A.R.2009, p.27) US used Shamsi airbase against Afghanistan to counter terrorism likewise cantonment if used in favor of US against Iran to counter her nuclear ambitions. Baluchistan has weak military structures and meager population would be insufficient for its defense against world super power. Such expedition can result in secession of Baluchistan and Sindh from Pakistan. The major influence would be from Nationalists. Pakistan Nuclear will go into danger because Pakistan is the only Muslim country having nuclear capability. Where all, US aimed to see Pakistan as a weak nuclear state by stopping her from unearthing minerals, energy and natural resources from Baluchistan. It is a fact that Uranium may be extracted from Baluchistan for making nuclear bombs. USA is mistrustful towards Gwadar. USA can desire of military or naval base at Gwadar to handle situations in the region specially to tackle Iran. President Donald Trump turned against on agreement between US and Iran which eased sanctions over Iran. He wants to impose strict measures and harsh sanctions on her. After the consumption of resources from Gulf region Central Asia Countries will satisfy the 110 energy requirement of the world. As we know that US is the world’s largest oil importer and it has dire need than China. Handling of Gwadar Port to China is a question mark for US, how it will import oil in future when Gulf resources will be engulfed. The region has great importance after collapse Soviet Union in 1988; it was Baluchistan which served as buffer state for U.S and her allied Pakistan in the days of Cold War against Russian invasion. Definitely Gwadar can help U.S and serve for the same purpose to tackle Iran and its nuclear and power generating capacities. This dream of US can only be possible if Gwadar port and CPEC become un-operational. In 1979 the lyrics the song Pak China Dosti Zinda Bad were drafted. It was symbol of construction of Karakoram Highway and was sung on various occasions. It remained it maintain friendship characteristic between China and Pakistan. Secretary Mattis, “The US opposed the One Belt, One Road policy in principle because in a globalised world, there were many belts and many roads, and no one nation should put itself into a position of dictating One Belt, One Road. And it opposed the one going through Pakistan also because it passed through a disputed territory.” (Anwar, I.2017) Further he stated “The One Belt, One Road also goes through disputed territory, and I think that in itself shows the vulnerability of trying to establish that sort of a dictate.” (Anwar, I.2017) Jams Mattis could have understood the continental and regional connectivity of OBOR. International Conference on OBOR was conducted in China on 14 and 15 May 2017, in which 130 Countries signed and 15 Heads of Government and States participated. Chinese President has already reiterated that OBOR is open to all countries definitely connecting their belt and roads. Pakistan is willing for peaceful talks over this issue (Kashmir) but it is India which has not allowed UN resolution on Kashmir to effect. The state of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif during the International Conference held in China in 2017 is worth to mention, “It is time we transcend our differences, resolve conflicts through dialogue and diplomacy, and leave a legacy of peace for future generations”. Why U.S Navy destroyers were sailing on a disputed territory of South China Sea? America should ponder over it. Diego Garcia an island was a part of British Colony, in between 1968 to 1973 the population of this island was ousted forcibly and was made American base. It covers an area of 30 km on the India Ocean. America claims that presence of Chinese Navy will have chance to monitor Diego Garcia, it is absolutely wrong because the distance 111 between Diego and Gwadar is 3,781 km. when India Ocean was permanent sea route for China, Chinese ships had been travelling through Strait of Malacca but now the tide has turned China will use shortest route of CPEC. It means that Chinese ships carrying goods may pass infrequently. Beside, China and other five countries claimed for South China Sea, the largest Sea (not ocean) ask American assistance to patrol and monitor Chinese naval power. Thus, US under Freedom of Navigation Operation does under regional treaty alliance. Philippian highlighted and spotlighted mutual defence agreement with US to help in case of war over South China Sea. U.S affirmed the Chinese missiles and artificial island being constructed by the China as growing influence in the region which is worry for America, thus tension may result in war and conflict between China and America. CPEC is the sign of changing geo-economic and geo-political landscape of the region. Chinese project signed with Pakistan and Sri Lanka are deemed of growing influence on Indian Ocean and her military footprint to Guam (an US island). India is seeking American’s help for Space Surveillance to monitor Chinese ship and military which will also be helpful for U.S intension. America and India may consider development of Gwadar as monitor Sea Lanes and American island Diego Garcia. The surveillance will be helpful to counter surveillance capability of China. India also wants to support in Unmanned Aerial Vehicles to monitor China. 112 CHAPTER NO 4: CONCLUSION FINDINGS Findings reveal that CPEC project has both merits and demerits for Pakistan. It will have positive and negative impacts on it. Findings reflect benefits for Pakistan and China. China will have lion’s share in this project while Pakistan will have considerable revenue also. Some findings 1. Mohammad Gull, a resident of Zhob, responding to a question, says “CPEC will end feudalism and bring livelihood for the subjects” The port will also bring social change in stratification, job opportunities for family, individual and the countrymen. 2. A general impression found against CPEC is that it is like another EIC (East India Company). In fact, such a notion has no ground reality. Because, China has no imperialistic mentality which is evident through its history when it had world’s greatest naval power in past.. East India Company had military and economic purposes while CPEC has only economic purposes. China Pakistan Economic Corridor cannot be termed East India Company. In 1600 through a charter EIC was set up with its prime function to convert Indian raw material into by products or finished goods. China wants to utilize natural resources of Pakistan. If we see CPEC and its routes observed on economic and Industrial map of Pakistan, one finds that eastern, western and central alignments are passing through routes where industrial, mineral and other natural resources of Pakistan are in abundance. China’s CPEC will not work as EIC; it will facilitate China in importing raw material and later on exporting it to Pakistan in form of byproducts. The CPEC project has not deprived Baluchistan from railway and power projects, road and water will be given to Baluchistan. 3. During the visit at Pano Akil, it was observed that cultivation and production of rice crop is banned around the area where Eastern route from Sukkur to Multan is being constructed, it will have impact on production and price of the rice crop. Definitely it will impact on production, consumption, export of 113 Pakistan, in response to this import of rice will increase which will also result in price hike, but these days are shorter while the benefits of CPEC are greater. 4. It will enhance people to people contact and more students will get opportunities for higher studies in China in future 5. 200 km Sindh coast is not sufficient for military strategic strategies or developments against 500 km of Muakran coast thus Gwadar port will provide much space for such sporadic and unpredictable military tactics. 6. Fishermen’s villages are being shifted 40 kilometers far from Gwadar which in increasing difficulties for livelihood.“Economic analysts predicted that in future Gwadar seaport will play the vital role in the economy of Pakistan like Swiss-Canal, Panama Canal, Dubai, Singapore etc” (http://www.alnoorgwadar.com/invest.html) 7. Abundance of cargo goods at Gwadar will result black marketing in Pakistan and especially in Baluchistan but could be checked through effective customs mechanism. 8. Sindh has progressed economically due to revenue generated by Karachi and Qasim ports, and Karachi has become hub for multinational companies. Karachi is multinational city due to these ports. Although they are working but the development of Gwadar for cargo is a serious question for Sindh. 9. Successful operation of the CPEC depends upon policies of Pakistan and the execution for example if Gwadar will be used as a military and strategic base definitely will produce complication in relations with the regional, India and USA particular. 10. China may seize Gwadar in case of no availability of debt. Hambantota of Sri Lanka should be assumed as precedent. 11. Chinese drivers rather than Pathan or Pushtun, in the coming days Chinese truck drivers will be seen while driving trucks and trolleys 12. In 1954 and 1955 Pakistan had signed SEATO and CENTO to avert communist influence but with singing of CPEC Pakistan has diverted communist surge back into Pakistan. No doubt that Communism will have influence on our minds. Thus resulting in the Spread of Communism. 114 13. Lingual impact on society is essential to be mentioned. Pakistan is a bilingual country with Urdu as National and English as Official, under the CPEC Chinese is being thought, its centers opened in various cities, after the introduction of it, either Chinese language will replace English or it will be imposed as parallel language to English as official in future. 14. It will boost Pakistan’s maritime economic and shipping industry. 15. It will impact on Local markets and industries of Pakistan; Chinese products will supersede with low coast and goods in bulk quantities endangering cost of local goods. Executive Director Atif Iqbal Organization for Advancement and Safeguard of Industrial Sector (Oasis) observed that CPEC was posing grave danger for domestic industry. “The CPEC could only be beneficial for Pakistan if the country’s exports were boosted through this mega trade route”. (Newspaper’s reporter) 16. Sea Lanes of Communications (SLOCs) could easily be monitored by Pakistan. 17. Development of Gwadar will enhance maritime competition between China and India. 18. Pakistan will be able to block Indian access to gulf region on sea route between Oman and Gwadar. 19. CPEC would fail due to security issues if Baloch’s reservations are not meet out through Economic development. 20. CPEC will make Pakistan a Hub for trade around the region and it will cover East, West, North and South. 21. CPEC besides progress will also enhance pollution in Baluchistan especially aquatic life at Gwadar harbor. 22. Death of women in state of pre-delivery show the reality of health issues in Gwadar. Basic Health Units (BHUs) have lack of basic facilities and no doctors are available, there are few dispensers non-qualified and untrained. Although there are a few female doctors in Gwadar but presence of leady doctor is unpredictable delivery cases or at night timing. The proposed hospital will resolve health issues. 23. Currently China is facing two obstacles in its progress issue on South China Sea and Uighur Movement in the Xinjiang province. CPEC would help China 115 in taking on Uighur by given them economic, development and tackle separatists’ movement. While on other hand CPEC will serve as alternative by passing Malacca route and tension. CONCLUSION Gwadar port located on the mouth of Hormuz, Gulf, and Persian region, maintains the geographical importance in the region. The second deepest port of the world Gwadar has become economic hub for the region. It will bring economic stability not only for Pakistan and China but also for the whole region. It will minimize energy crisis of Pakistan, boost economy, repair infrastructure, and raise geographical position of Pakistan in the world politics. CPEC has proposed various projects such as Gwadar East-Bay Expressway, New Gwadar International Airport, Construction of Breakwaters, Dredging of berthing areas &channels, Development of Free Zone, and Necessary facilities of fresh water treatment, water supply and distribution. The project will provide jobs in millions not for natives but also for non-natives. Although there are some reservations on the CPEC especially from India and America which has been mentioned in chapter three in detail, this project will help India to expand hr trade on regional basis, while America will also be able to use this port for the same purpose. Pakistan maintained the bilateral status of CPEC between China and Pakistan when Saudi Prince Sulaiman had asked for partnership; Saudi Arabia will have maximum opportunities to expand its oil trade through this port. Baluchistan and its history could not witness such an economic development before this (CPEC); we are making it historic and history for successors. The project will resolve reservations of Baloch Nationalists that the Federal Government earns a lot from natural gas but meager finance has been given for development programs. The project would protect TAPI (2700 km) and Pakistan, Iran and India (760 km) gas pipelines attacks. In future if rebellions, insurgents and separatists attack on such project (gas etc) public will turn hostile to them and their indulgence and recruitment would halt and they will hate and dislike insurgents. Insurgents would be considered terrorist or enemy against their developments. The CPEC can provide India an access route to Central Asian Countries via Kashmir or by crossing through LOC. This is the time of need and support for government for development and prosperity. 116 RECOMMENDATIONS “The way the Gwadar Port Project is planned and its feasibility are questionable. The plan does not envisage local human resource development for the running of the port. It also does not cater to the need of developing industries around the port area, which would make it a hub of industrial and economic activity thus making it economically viable and encourage human resource development. Instead it is planned to be just a transit trade port for goods from and to China and the Central Asian Countries through the Kara Kurram Highway and Afghanistan.” (Shaikh A.R.2009, p.26) so Technical and vocational colleges should be installed specially into Baluchistan China will earn from Pakistan by converting raw material of Pakistan into finished goods. So Pakistan should set up own industries to boost economy and finished goods. To make it successful, we are direly needed regional cooperation in common interest. Policy and political stability is vital for the survival of CPEC. Consistently change in politics and policies witness impasse in progress of economy and projects. Pakistan should plan to pay debt back. 1. Pakistan will have to increase export with China rather than import, “For instance a hooded sweat shirt is made at the rate of $12 per piece in China, and in Pakistan it costs $ 9 to $10. Similarly, a pair of jeans costs $10 in China while in Pakistan it costs $8 to $8.519, because the labour cost in Pakistan is less than in China, India and Vietnam.” (Shabir A.2013. p.98) 2. The quadrilateral trade agreement with Afghanistan has been operating for 2004 and it can be utilized to promote regional trade and economy 3. We need to lay emphasis on partnership and business. 4. Pakistan and China had to adhere with agreement of Built Operate and Transfer in real sense, the case should not turn as Hambantota. 5. It would be unwise to think that China in collaboration with Pakistan will fight war against India, but contrary to this China is trying at level best to bring India in OBOR. If it happens then Pakistan would be deprived of Chinese help and shelter against India. 6. Hand over Gwadar to Provincial government 117 7. To review the checkpoints and reduce unnecessary guard of Frontier Corps and Coast Guards. 8. To pay liabilities and increase royalties for gas producing in Baluchistan 9. To increase provincial representation in PPL (Pakistan Petroleum Limited), Sui Southern and OGDC (Oil and Gas Development Cooperation) 10. To shift the office of GPA (Gwadar Port Authority) from Karachi to Gwadar, Appoint Chairman of GPA from Baluchistan and allocate7% of GPA revenue to the province 11. Other points concentrated on development, quota in jobs for local and parity between Baloch and Pushton in all spheres. In November 2009 similar step was taken by Asif Ali Zardari’s Government to redress through Aghaz-eHaqooq-i-Balochistan Package but offers failed. 118 BIBLIOGRAPHY Adnan, A. (2015, 02 07). Pakistan Today. Retrieved 03 28, 2015, from www.Pakistantoday.com.pk:http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2015/02/07/co mment/pak-china-economic-corridor Ahmad, M. (Sept 2014). Improving Regional Trade to Support Pakistan's Economic Growth. The Lahore Journal of Economics Akbar, A. (20 July 2016). China Pakistan Economic Corridor: Prospects and Challenges for Regional. Arts and Social Sciences Journal. 7 (4) Ali, H. (2017). composition of Battalion in Pak-Army Ali, M. (2015, April 22). The Express Tribune. Retrieved April 25, 2015, from tribune.com.pk: http://tribune.com.pk/story/874090/k-p-censures-change-in-route-ofchinapakistan-economic-corridor/ Ali, M. (2017). 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LIBRARIES Central Library, Shah Abdul Latif University, Khairpur Knowledge Centre (Library), Sukkur IBA University, Sukkur Central Library, Cadet College Ghotki Mir Masoom Shah Library, Sukkur 125 Appendixes A Strait of Hormuz: Strait means a narrow waterway which connects two large bodies of water or a channel of water. Hormuz is name of a Persian god; it connects Persian Gulf with Gulf of Oman. 54 km wide, Iran is in its North and in South of it lies Oman and UAE. Nine Dash Line: China claims for sea area around Nine Dash Line on the world’s largest sea known as South China Sea, for several years China is fighting with countries Malaysia, Vietnam, Taiwan, Indonesia and Philippine. These countries have similar claims for South China Sea. CPEC will provide with China an alternative route for trade, China will feel tension free and will be easy to fight with above states to strengthen her claim over the South China Sea. Silk Route: Silk Red or Silk Route is a old trade route, it connects East with West through land and sea. Via this route Islam spread to China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Sri Lanka. The route connects South China Sea in East with Mediterranean Sea in the west. As a trade route it can link with China, India, Persia, Arabia, Somalia, Java, Egypt, Africa, Asia, Europe and South East Asia. CARs: Central Asian Republics cover northern and north eastern part of Pakistan, these state can only be connected through Wakhan strip of 20 km connecting Tajikistan with Pakistan from northern side and from the western side Tora Bora hill, Bolan and Khyber Pass through Afghanistan. CARs are rich in natural gas but these states and Pakistan will be dependent upon Afghanistan and its security environment with respect of CPEC. 126 Appendixes B BLA: Baluchistan Liberation Army, An outlawed organization work with purpose to segregate Baluchistan from Pakistan. Mostly of its member are engage in criminal activities they motivate masses for their aim and mobilize self-interpretation against CPEC. Naval Base at Gwadar: The coastal highway has become operational connecting Gwadar, Ormara, Pasni and Karachi because Ormara and Pasni are both naval bases. A naval base will be constructed in Gwadar which will enhance the mighty and defensive strength of Pakistan Navy. The newly build naval base will be used for military purposes and might monitor Strait of Hormuz and other vessel movements from gulf region to Indian Ocean. Importance for Gilgit Baltistan:CPEC joint working group in a meeting held at Karachi chaired by federal secretary SaddiqueMemon and official of Chinese communication ministry approved two projects for Gilgit Baltistan. Gilgit BalistanShandur Chitral Chakdara expressway at the cost of 22 billion rupees and RaikotDiamer to Dau in Kohistan at the cost of 9 billion rupees will be constructed. Real Estate in Gwadar:Gwadar not a mere port but a city with luxurious life and apartments, Saroya Real Estate and Builders Gwadar, Good Deals Property Consultant-Gwadar, Eproperty-Gwadar, Gwadar Hub, Khush Bakht property-Gwadar and Bid Deal International Real Estate-Gwadar are a few estate agencies dealing with real estate business. Pakistan China Institute: This institute was launched on 1 st October 2009, Senator Mushahid Hussain as its Chairman, it is first nongovernmental and non political institute to promote public contact with both sides in defence, education diplomacy and so on, under its auspices Chinese language has been taught in universities and at center. 127 Appendixes C Official Websites China Pakistan Economic Corridor: http://cpec.gov.pk/ Gwadar Development Authority: http://www.gda.gov.pk/ Gwadar Port Authority: http://www.gwadarport.gov.pk/ Pakistan China Institute: http://www.pakistan-china.com/ Industrial Estate Development Authority (GIEDA):http://gieda.gov.pk/ For information on CPEC: www.cpecinfo.com Ministry of Planning Development & Reformhttp://www.pc.gov.pk/ 128 Appendixes D Government Official (Former) # Name Designation Email 1 Prof Ahsan Iqbal Minister of Planning, Development & Reforms - Pakistan betterpakistan@gmail.com 2 Mr. Sartaj Aziz Deputy Chairman Planning Commission of Pakistan deputychairman@pc.gov.pk 051051-9215787 9211147, 0519202783 3 Mr. Secretary Planning, Shoaib Development and Ahmed Reform Siddiqui secretary@pc.gov.pk Phone +92-51- +92-51-9202704 9212831, +92-519206444 4 Mr. Zafar Hasan Additional Secretary Planning, Development and Reform 5 Mr. Hassan Daud Butt Deputy Project dd_cpec@pc.gov.pk Director/Coordinator CPEC +92-519208952 6 Mr. Shaukat Hayat Khattak Deputy Director Media (CPEC) +92-519216922 7 Mr. Web Manager Adeel (CPECSP) Shehzad ddmedia.cpec@pc.gov.pk Fax +92-51-9212792 wm_cpec@pc.gov.pk Source: cpec.govt.pk http://cpec.gov.pk/cpecofficial 129 Appendixes E Government Official (Current) # Name Designation Email Phone Fax 1 Makhdum Khusro Bakhtyar Minister for Planning, Development and Reform 2 Mr. Zafar Hasan Secretary Planning, Development and Reform 3 Mr. Hassan Daud Butt Project Director/CPEC Coordinator/Focal Person CPEC dd_cpec@pc.gov.pk +92-519208952 +92-51-9212792 4 Mr. Adeel Shehzad Web Manager (CPECSP) wm_cpec@pc.gov.pk Source: cpec.govt.pk http://cpec.gov.pk/cpecofficial 130