GLOBAL SHIFTS: A CHANGING CLIMATE, A CHANGING WORLD SPRING 2019 Destination Duluth: Competitive Economic Development in the Age of Climigration By Jesse M. Keenan, Lecturer in Architecture, Harvard University Graduate School of Design and Center for the Environment When it comes to climate change and demography, much of the current discourse revolves around conceptualizations associated with refugees and internally displaced persons. These frames attempt to capture a broad range of contexts from transnational migration to post-disaster relocation. In many ways, these are arguably necessary labels to give voice to people whose identity has been disconnected from a defined sense of place, homeland and even an environment. In popular terms, these labels are often stigmatic and are oriented around the ideas of a loss of social capital, economic waste, and an alienation of belonging. However, until recently, there has been one overlooked component of this broader discourse. What about the behavior of various populations who will choose to migrate in the face of, or anticipation of, climate change impacts? Elective mobility evokes a positivist and opportunistic aspect of a broader proposition of migration as a form of adaptation. Indeed, the very definition of adaptation is inclusive of not only the “moderat[ion] of negative effects,” but also the “exploit[ation] of beneficial opportunities.” (USGCRP, 2019). For the American rust belt located on the Great Lakes, there is arguably an opportunity to not only repopulate, but do so in a manner that advances sustainable urban development. Within this narrow development orientation, climate migration (hereinafter, “climigration”) may represent an opportunity to advance strategic, competitive economic development by and between American states, regions and cities. There are a number of cities in the U.S. that arguably represent superior set of quantitative and qualitative characteristics for accelerating this merger of people, culture and capital. Whether it is a function of environmental impact, resource depletion, regional economic growth, labor and wage elasticities, or simply things like the availability of potable water, there are any number of factors that may be weighted by households in the processing of determining if, when and where to relocate. For those households with some GLOBAL.UPENN.EDU/PERRYWORLDHOUSE measure of elective mobility, this can be framed within a broader set of climactic and consumer-oriented amenities. Very often these consumer preferences are shaped within a broader context of global change that adds additional weights to an aging society, income inequality and social marginalization. While there are many potential factors, it could be argued that the most reductive forms of influence may relate to whether a receiving zone—where climate migrants move to—is affordable, accessible and authentic. This paper highlights one experimental project (2018–2019) that sought to connect climate demography and economic development marketing, as mediated by the consumption of the built environment and the formulation of a visual brand identity. This exploratory project started with two simple questions. How could Duluth, Minnesota market itself to attract climate migrants (hereinafter “climigrants”)? What is Duluth’s capacity to physically, economically and socially adapt? CLIMATE DEMOGRAPHY AND MARKET SEGMENTATION Demographic mobility has played an important role in the economic and labor history of America. Often referenced as the Great American Migration, people have historically moved where the jobs are (Molloy, et al., 2011). For a number of reasons, relating to mortgage and student debt; dual-income households; technologically supported remote working; and, declining real wages, this Great American Migration has been observed to have significantly slowed down in recent years (Frey, 2009; Cooke, 2013). This has also been exacerbated by the broader phenomenon that centers on the proposition that higher-wage job growth has been largely relegated to cities that are increasingly unaffordable for lower- and middle-class households (Florida, 2017). Despite this structural slowdown in internal migration, some have argued that climate change impacts may manifest in manner that will drive people from 1 GLOBAL SHIFTS: A CHANGING CLIMATE, A CHANGING WORLD DESTINATION DULUTH their homes and, perhaps, instigate a new period of internal migration. As the originator of this broader conceptualization, Matt Hauer’s work has been the starting point for much debate in climate demography. In terms of the Duluth project, it was the starting point for understanding sending zones and the composition of the people within those sending zoning who may be on the move. In his seminal contribution, Hauer, et al. projected the impact that sea level rise (SLR) might have in terms of forced dislocation and where those populations may go. The work highlighted a first order approximation of nearly 13 million who may be on the move. This early stage research opened the door for future research to explore the demographic implications of extreme heat, drought, flooding and forest fires. There are number of other demographic considerations that shaped the analysis within the Duluth project. The first consideration relates to the observed and hypothesized advantage that wealthier property owners have in benefiting from disaster aid (Marino, 2018). As such, it could be argued that a disproportionate number of beneficiaries of formal managed retreat activities in response to SLR—as both a shock and a stress—may be those households who have the economic means to relocate. Of course, this assumes that there will be some measure of increased public oversight and engagement in managed retreat. An additional consideration relates to the mismatch between sending and receiving zones as it relates to age and labor participation (Curtis and Schneider, 2011). To this end, sending zone states such as Florida and South Carolina may be disproportionately young and old, whereas California and New Jersey may represent a greater number of working-age adults on the move. SUSTAINABLE URBANIZATION AND MARKETING These demographic considerations were critical to thinking about the broader idea of targeting (i.e., marketing to) a specific range of market segments that balance considerations for economic productivity or accrued wealth—as a unidimensional and somewhat flawed focus of economic development. This is particularly relevant for historically de-populated receiving zones who need not only working adults but likely also need to increase fertility rates. Here the idea of ‘need’ relates to a broader ambition to invest in human capital. Some demographers have argued that climate change may negatively impact fertility rates (Shayegh, 2017). But, this might offer a positive outcome for some in that, with fewer children, there may be more resources to support their development and education (id). An additional implication—if not contradiction— GLOBAL.UPENN.EDU/PERRYWORLDHOUSE is that with less children and smaller household sizes, there may be an opportunity to promote a more sustainable footprint in the built environment (Barnett and Adger, 2018). With this set of cues, the Duluth project proceed to further investigate a range of sending zones in the U.S. defined not just SLR but also a range of risks associated with the availability of potable water and forest fires. Research suggested that Duluth’s climate will be relatively moderate in the future, even in light of the projections for a warmer and wetter climate. Likewise, early stage research suggested that, while household relocation do consider climate as an amenity, their marginal willingness to pay for that climate is a relatively small amount relative to the total cost of housing (Sinha, et al., 2018). This opened the door for the idea that people living in the warm and sunny south may be more open to moving to a colder climate in the future than people may realize. Through an examination of the market segments within the sending zones, there began a process of thinking through a range of housing and real estate life-cycle considerations. Thereafter, the challenge was to volumetrically simulate varying degrees of in-migration sensitivity analysis within the physical fabric of the urban core of Duluth. This was done within the context of smaller unit sizes and an overall ambition to simulate sustainable urban development patterns. Ultimately, this analytical range included an influx of 10,000 to 100,000 people and included a full spectrum of considerations relating to physical and cultural infrastructure, fiscal and environmental impact, urban design and transportation alternatives. It is as this juncture that the project returned to the desirability of places to be affordable, accessible and authentic. Not only was Duluth extremely affordable for much of the existing populations within the sending zones, it also benefited from well designed civic spaces and an impressive collection of historic architecture that shaped a certain authenticity of place. In addition, it was determined that access to high quality health care, education and recreational amenities would also likely be a significant advantage for Duluth. The final component of the workflow was to translate these various climate futures of Duluth within a broader interpretation of in situ environmental and cultural values. Here visual identities drawing upon urban and environmental qualities were developed within a broader branding campaign to target specific market segments within sending zones. This work product included everything from slogans to the design of a new flag. These vignettes—with accompanying rhetoric— 2 GLOBAL SHIFTS: A CHANGING CLIMATE, A CHANGING WORLD DESTINATION DULUTH were then market tested to compositive market segments within social media as a method to calibrate effective messaging. For instance, a specific warm weather color palette; visual cues to the infinite horizon of Lake Superior and the ocean; and, first person outdoor activities (e.g., surfing on Lake Superior) were utilized to relate to Floridians who, in focus groups, expressed a deep skepticism of their capacity to move to Duluth’s cold climate.1 Among the various target market responses and vignettes, there emerged a set of values that shaped a re-branding for Duluth. CONCLUSIONS This broader advertising and branding campaign provided an iterative set of characteristics and qualities that helped refine various ideas of housing and retail product development, place making and highlighted the value of complementary economic development strategies for attracting certain skilled labor pools, such as healthcare workers. In many ways, this workflow highlights that climate change is deeply interconnect to nearly everything defining the American standard of living from housing policy to health care accessibility. A critical framing for the project was to contextualize climate change within a broad range of considerations for global change and migration. For instance, with an aging society, there will be plenty of people of elective mobility that may very well find Duluth an attractive and affordable place to retire. More fundamentally, the Duluth project highlights what may be the first volley of competitive economic development among American cities and states in the face of climigration. Climate change may very well drive opportunities in the face of a slowdown of the Great American Migration. There are no doubt serious considerations for those that may be left behind in terms of a broader impetus for advancing distributive equity and procedural justice in sending zones under the auspices of climate justice. Competitive economic development driven by climate change will—like all adaptations—yield winners and losers. Ultimately, it is for the people of Duluth, or any other city, to determine who they may seek to attract and how they may take advantage of the opportunity to advance a more sustainable way of life. For some cities, climate change represents a significant opportunity to invest in not just physical infrastructure but also in human capital. This publication was made possible (in part) by a grant from Carnegie Corporation of New York. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the author(s). ENDNOTES 1 Hence, the slogan “Duluth, Not As Cold As You Think.” REFERENCES Barnett, J., & Adger, W. N. (2018). Mobile worlds: choice at the intersection of demographic and environmental change. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 43, 245–265. Hauer, M. E., Evans, J. M., & Mishra, D. R. (2016). Millions projected to be at risk from sea-level rise in the continental United States. Nature Climate Change, 6(7), 691. Cooke, T. J. (2013). Internal migration in decline. The Professional Geographer, 65(4), 664–675. Molloy, R., Smith, C. L., & Wozniak, A. (2011). Internal Migration in the United States. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 25(3), 173–96. Curtis, K. J., & Schneider, A. (2011). 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