Susan Lewis ENEP 820 – International Perspectives – Mid term Essay Introduction There are many pressing issues to tackle within international perspectives on energy policy, both in this course and on Earth. The issues are complex, interrelated, and lacking clear, defined, or simple solutions. If there is one thing that we seem to be able to agree on around the world, though, it is the need for major change in our energy system (Geri & McNabb, 2010), change some say is equivalent in scale to a revolution – something the scope of which we have not seen since the industrial revolution. One of the most vital changes needed, and one that will have far reaching, long-term benefits for all - from the modern developed world to the most isolated rural communities - is moving to a sustainably sourced, low-carbon energy supply. Key factors to enabling this transition are focusing on energy efficiency over/in addition to reduced use, electrification over fossil fuel use, and utilizing technology that is ready to go, or close to it. As Deng, et al (2012) further argue, a sustainable energy system could be feasible by 2050 with the right approach. Some argue for this sort of system by 2020, termed by some as the plan B economy (Brown, 2011). This is also vitally important to the developing world, particularly rural areas, as 1.3 billion people are without electricity. An energy supply sourced by sustainable, renewable methods has many global advantages including limitless supply, increasing energy diversification, improving global energy security, reducing vulnerabilities in the south, alleviating energy poverty, and giving rural areas access to or ability to generate energy. There are many barriers to success but it can be done with international cooperation, political leadership, policy reform, global investment, and perhaps most importantly, societal transformation. Energy and Global Sustainability It is important to recognize that technology and policy, while vitally important to a new energy system, are not enough to enable a global energy revolution. They are essential tools but cannot alone accomplish a task that is so intimately tied with society and social behavior, ethics, social norms, politics, etc. That said; there is a need for social change and transformation in order to achieve the changes needed in the global energy system. Historically, societal change has driven waves of environmentalism (Peura, 2013). Similarly, social transitions over time have brought us to the current anthropocene, for better or worse (Haberl et al, 2009). There have been incredible human advances over the last few generations in technology, science, communications, and more, but we have left a tremendous wake of damage in the process. The paradox of innovation explains this duality well; innovation and technology have created the opportunities and solutions that we have today, but at the same time have contributed to chief global problems and crises that we now need to solve. It is critical that we find solutions to our problems without further environmental or social detriment in the process (Westley, et al, 2011). The cross roads of change are before us, we cannot wait any longer without further consequence. Tied to the need for social change is that our “social metabolism” in the developed world needs a new diet – of renewable and sustainably sourced energy instead of the current overconsumption of deteriorating, inefficient fossil fuel supplies (Haberl, et al, 2009). Reorganization and reformation of energy systems and policy go hand in hand with societal reorganization (Haberl, et al, 2009). Energy is directly related to environment and economy, also development and politics, truly all aspects of society. There must be societal change to enable global energy and policy reform and to help elicit and strengthen political support and leadership. Transitions for sustainability and energy require social change (2.3) and vice versa. Energy is absolutely essential to human, economic, and social improvements globally, from the developed countries to the poorest rural areas on the planet. Access to energy and electricity is critical for global poverty alleviation. Accessible, sustainable energy is needed to achieve equality and should be a central component of broad development strategies (Kaygusuz, 2012). All global stakeholders need to be involved; business and private, government, NGO’s, international organizations, the general public, etc. To create true social transformation, everyone must be on board (Westley et al 2011). This is not to say that those accustomed to a certain way of life or living standards need to change their lifestyles (Steinberger & Roberts, 2010). The developed world can maintain their ways of life and living standards; the rural poor can retain cultural integrity and safe methods, and everything else in between. A sustainable energy system as described in this paper would focus on efficiency in addition to more conservative use in a world with increasing demands, not unrealistic reductions or culturally insensitive forced lifestyle changes (or arguably, neocolonialism). While some argue that we could be equally satisfied with less energy consumption (Steinberger & Roberts, 2010), changing the sources and dramatically improving efficiency of our energy practices is a more important, realistic, and globally relevant strategy. It is also one that will elicit more public support and less resistance. With an energy system driven by renewables - sustainable, free sources - efficiency will be paramount and the global population will not have to worry about finite resources or energy insecurity any longer. Global Energy Scenarios There is a strong argument that an almost (95%) fully sustainably sourced global energy supply is possibly and realistically attainable by 2050. Significant policy changes and actions are necessary but it can be done. According to Deng, et al, (2012) the key factors towards making the 2050 goal are focusing on energy efficiency, electrification over fossil fuel use, and a focus on energy sources that already have proven technology, or are near-ready for large scale use. Industry, buildings, and transportation are the demand sectors that this study focuses on and according to the authors, should cover the strong majority of energy needs and uses. Buildings have great potential for energy savings through retrofits, new sustainable construction, and maintenance methods. The success and growing popularity of the LEED accreditation system in the US is an example of this already happening. Great increases in transportation efficiency are possible, and moving away from vehicles and towards human-powered and public transportation can have huge impacts. Demand for energy is not likely to decrease, quite the opposite, particularly in developing countries with growing economies and increasing electricification and energy needs. Deng et al (2012) suggest that stabilized demand coupled with increased efficiency can lead us to 95% sustainably sourced global energy though demand and supply side evolution of the power system. There is no silver bullet solution that will be applicable across all places and times. The methods and strategies to meet global energy goals will vary. Evidence of this can be seen in the European Union’s goal for a low carbon energy system by 2050, where neighboring EU member states are approaching the tasks it with different visions and strategies. Meesus et al (2011) compares 5 EU member states – Denmark, France, Finland, Ireland, Germany, and the UK - that are exploring or pursuing strategies and the main challenges to successful achievement. While use of variable strategies poses some risk for policy fragmentation, there cannot and will not be an overarching solution for all places at all times regarding energy. Renewable resources are plentiful around the world, but vary by type and region, and thus so too must related policy. More success will be found in localized solutions contributing to global goals than attempting to find a silver bullet or one-size-fits-all solution. Bottom-up approaches coupled with top-down supporting policy are the sort of cooperative efforts this energy transition needs. In the EU, member states are at varying degrees of policy exploration an/dor legal commitment. Most implementation is unfortunately hung up in pending legal commitment processes. This is tied to financing, politics, and societal support – arguably the greatest challenges to the energy transition. Of the member states evaluated in the Meesus, et al (2011) study, the United Kingdom has made the most progress with implementation. Uniquely, the UK has already published a progress report associated to 2050 energy goals and has introduced a carbon floor price. The other member states have many ideas and intents, but little tangible action as of yet. In the EU, the greatest potential energy savings is in the building sector. Instruments like certification, benchmarking, and performance standards – similar to LEED certification in the US – are the intended mechanisms for goal achievement in this sector. France has a target of 38% reduction in building sector energy consumption by 2020, for example. All member states agree on low carbon electricity for decarbonizing the energy sector but the preferred technology varies by region. In Denmark, biomass and wind are the strategic technologies, Germany is seeking and pursuing renewable energy sources like wind and solar, and France has a strong nuclear program and has some preference for continued use, while this is not an option for Denmark or Germany (except perhaps as a bridging technology in the midterm). The overarching goals are the same, but there are differing views on energy generation from country to country leading to different policies on technology. In order to create cooperation among the EU member states with varying technologies and policy implementation, the plan is to create an integrated grid system. This will enable the technologies and policies need to work in harmony, avoid fragmentation, work towards opportunities for cooperation, and ultimately build a low carbon energy system by 2050. The main challenges for the EU, and shared by other developed countries, to achieving the transition to a low carbon energy system by 2050 are 1) achieving energy efficiency to ensure bold energy savings, 2) tackling GHG emissions and moving towards a zero-carbon electricity system, 3) pushing renewable energy technologies into the market, 4) timely investment in energy infrastructure for electricity transmission and grid capacity across borders, and 5) energy markets and investment in electricity generation back-up capacity. Cost is, of course, a major barrier but investment is absolutely critical and is a smarter use of funds than carrying on with the antiquated fossil fuel based energy system of today. Studies show that projected fuel cost saving should compensate for the investments needed. While the challenges are significant, member states of the EU are committed to pursuing strategies to deal with the challenges, find pathways for cooperation, and achieve a low-carbon energy system by 2050 (Meesus, et al, 2011). There are a number of potential energy sources and technologies that exist or are in development, but the best method to achieve a low-carbon worldwide energy supply by 2050 is to use technology with proven success and potential for near-term, large-scale deployment. Jacobson and Delucci (2010) make a strong argument for the feasibility of wind, water, and solar (WWS) producing new energy by 2030 and replacing pre-existing energy by 2050. WWS is selected largely because of technological development; the technology exists and is already successfully in use. It can be scaled up for global use without intensive or time-consuming development work. It can also be used at smaller scales, for rural communities far away from grid access, for instance. Other criteria for selecting WWS include that there is zero greenhouse gas emissions, they are indefinitely renewable and/or recyclable, and there is little impact to wildlife and natural environment. Also important to note is that wind and sunlight are free. Nuclear is in use in some parts of the world, but is not seen as a significant contributor part to energy in 2050. The main reasons for omitting nuclear are dangerous emissions, long lead-time due to siting, permitting, and construction, finite stores of uranium, increased risk of accidents or terrorism, safety concerns, and long-lasting radioactive waste. Hydroelectric power is another good option but most suitable locations are already in use. Micro-hydro power does hold some promise for off grid areas. Further, WWS is a feasible methodology for 2050 goals from both demand and supply sides. Demand will be reduced through increased efficiency and with added infrastructure, solar and wind can provide more energy than is demanded worldwide (Jacobson and Delucci, 2010). New solar and wind structures and infrastructure would be needed and this does require significant investment. The good news is that relatively small amounts of space would be taken up by the added infrastructure and the payoff would be tremendous, particularly with wind and sunlight being free resources. As previously mentioned, projected fuel costs should compensate the needed investments (Jacobson and Delucci, 2010). While WWS is a huge part of making the 2050 vision a reality, it is not without challenges. The main barriers to a WWS energy system are arguably social and political far more than technological or economic. One major concern with WWS is reliability in meeting energy demands. While there are challenges in securing that supply can meet demand, Jacobson and Delucci (2010) suggest 7 different ways to coordinate these needs. Solutions include: interconnecting dispersed generators, using complementary energy sources to help match supply to demand, use smart demand-response management and adjustable/flexible loads, store electric power at generation sites, store electric power at end-use locations (promising but many challenges to implementation), produce excess and produce hydrogen (extra cost here but technology anticipated to ease), and finally: use weather forecasting to plan. Barriers exist but are not insurmountable. A 2050 energy system based on WWS sources is feasible. Vulnerabilities in the South One of the most pressing global issues today is energy poverty. Currently, 2.7 billion people around the world depend on traditional biomass for cooking and heating, and 1.3 billion people do not have access to electricity. About one third of humanity is affected by energy poverty. The strong majority of the energy poor live in rural areas of developing countries – far from grid access or ability to join the energy system. Without energy access or services, the world’s poor cannot earn a living or get out of severe poverty; making socioeconomic development is nearly impossible. Conversely, poverty is the main obstacle to gaining energy access. It is a vicious cycle and the current centralized fossil fuel based energy system does not have promise for breaking the pattern. Health, education, environment, and gender inequality are all connected to energy inequality (Behrens, et al, 2012). Tackling these issues should not only be part of global goals for 2050, but a goal for today. As such, it is a major objective in international agreements like the Millennium Development Goals. Low-carbon, sustainable energy sources are just as critical to this energy access issue as to global energy system goals for 2050. This is a major piece of the puzzle. Energy poverty is most severe in Sub-Saharan South Africa and South Asia, and is also a major issue in South America and India. While there are variations across countries and regions, common issues include energy inequality and lacking electricity access, unsafe and inefficient cooking methods, related health impacts, access targets, and meeting 2015 Millennium Development Goals (Legros, et al, 2009). Broad efforts are needed to expand access, especially for cooking and mechanical power in rural and remote areas. Priorities, plans, policies, programs, financing are all needed for any hope of achieving goals and meeting existing targets. Modern renewable energy sources (RES) like wind and solar have the highest potential for sustainable energy in developing countries and rural areas. RES avoids problems of large-scale projects and are suitable for low demand situations, which is typical for rural communities. As with any major transformative project, there are economic, institutional, social, informational constraints. The vicious cycle is a key constraint and there has been poor success with attempted use of centralized power for rural areas. RES is projected to dominate mini-grid and off-grid electricity generation, and appears to be the most likely, promising, and cost effective method for bringing energy and electricity to rural areas. Investment estimates are $36-48 billion/yr to meet 2030 goals. Behrens, et al (2012) believe this is feasible with international cooperation. They suggest project funding by international development agencies, NGOs, and private sector. Current market conditions deter private investment but with favorable policies and programs, this could be improved. Regarding rural electrification, it is important to give attention to energy services, not just grid connection or access. Historically, attempted grid access has frequently been unreliable, expensive, or otherwise ineffective. RES can fill the gap and bring reliable, affordable, appropriately scaled energy to these disadvantaged regions (Behrens, et al, 2012). Behrens, et al (2012) present case studies in their work showing real success of RES for rural areas. Strategies to bring power, enable development, and reduce poverty include empowering locals to be entrepreneurs in ways such as running local solar power stations, and microcredit loans helping to provide solar home systems plus training and education for locals, which is critical for long term success. Any project should be planned and evaluated based on local needs and variables. There is no “one size fits all” for RES or communities. Needs and available resources vary. RES can be applied in different ways and degrees to meet varying needs. National and international policies are vital to success of international partnerships and projects, thus regulatory framework needed to significantly reduce energy poverty through RES. Of the energy impoverished regions globally, India is unique its significant work and commitment to bringing RES to the energy poor. About 22% of India’s population is in poverty and of that about 70% is rural. Urban areas have seen some energy transition but rural areas have changed very little. Fuel choices are based mainly on affordability and availability. Uniquely, India has an ambitious set of goals to address energy poverty. The Tenth Five Year Plan has a target for getting power to 100% of population by 2012. India is rich in RES and has established a Ministry for RE Development, the first and only in the world. RE contributes 5% of total power production at time of writing (Bhide & Monroy, 2010). India’s progress is well ahead of other countries with similar energy poverty issues. Solar & wind are in use already and national programs and incentives are in place to assist with growth and sustainability of these energy sources. Subsidies are available for solar hybrid systems for communities and there is institutional organization in place for installation and maintenance of the systems. Large-scale hydropower is in use and small-scale hydropower has potential. Sites for small-scale hydro have been identified and subsidy programs are being planned for this purpose. Training and deployment of skilled manpower, subsidies, and government-supported repair and servicing for renewable energy facilities is part of India’s plan. The Ministry helps with financing construction and maintenance, training, awareness and more. Government support is necessary for RE because of high and otherwise prohibitive upfront cost. India shows commitment to RE through policies, benefits, and the Ministry. The full potential of RE has not been tapped but they have made an ambitious start (Bhide & Monroy, 2010), and show that with efforts, cooperation, and funding the move towards a sustainable energy system by 2050 is possible. North to South Transfer With a global goal of a low-carbon sustainable energy system by 2050, there must be agreements, benchmarks, intermediate goals, mandates, etc in place to get and keep the process moving along until we get there. It will not be an overnight transition, but a progressive process. Today, there are international agreements with near-term greenhouse gas and carbon reduction standards to meet. There are various ways for the developed, polluting countries to meet these goals and some of those involve, directly or indirectly, north to south technology transfer. Technology transfer is a sticky issue. There are a lot of factors at play; research and development, new vs. outdated technology, transfer mechanisms, intellectual property rights, spill-over, differing regulations across countries…the list goes on. Generally speaking, the north has the technology and a charge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and levels. The south needs technology and knowhow to get out of energy poverty. Depending on what technologies and methods are transferred, these new energy users could become new emitters of GHG. Obviously this is not the ideal scenario, so modern technology transfer is needed. There is a key difference in the viewpoints of developed vs. developing countries in regard to technology transfer. For developing countries, the priority is gaining access to technology. For developed countries, the priority is mitigation of greenhouse gas. This divide is central to the lack of agreement in negotiations on low carbon technology transfer today. The polarization remains unresolved and intellectual property rights represent a particularly difficult piece. The debate stems from the issue that private firms want to keep their intellectual property safe as to not lose market value in transferring, or giving it away, to others. There is a long-standing dilemma and is at an impasse at this point (Ockell, et al, 2010). Problems are not without solutions, however. One way to compensate for “giving away” knowledge for social benefit is through government subsidies. Another policy strategy gaining increasing importance is the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). This allows polluters in developed countries to meet their emission reduction regulations and limits through financing emission reduction projects in developing areas. This way, firms are rewarded for transferring technology and knowledge. All parties get what they are after. This is a win-win for developed countries to meet emissions targets and help developing countries achieve sustainable energy development. CDM is a young strategy and further research is needed, but it is a promising solution to a difficult and sticky problem (Popp, 2011). Setting these debates aside, there is opportunity for developing countries to leap frog with low carbon energy technology and not follow the same fossil fuel pathways as the developed world. That is part of why technology transfer is so important. There is a dichotomy where the developed countries are trying to reduce emissions while the developing are trying to get up to speed and is thus increasing emissions. The crossroads for what direction the developing world takes is here – in some ways the easy path is to follow in the steps of the developed world and use centralized power generated from fossil fuels. The much smarter investment, though, is for the developing world to skip over those mistakes and move forward now with a low carbon, renewable-based system. Technology transfer is a necessity, no matter what technology it is. A key factor is that with technology transfer to developing areas: “policy must allow for adaptive R&D”, or allowing for adjustments and local growth so the technology fits with the local needs (Popp, 2011). Not only will local needs and energy uses vary, but local people will not simply abandon old ways blindly. There may also be cultural issues or similar to account for that will not be easily altered. Further, people and communities must be able to become autonomous and carry forward with the new technological tools in the ways that they need. It is imperative for the developing world that the need for technology and knowledge is met, and to take into account local needs and necessary adaptations. The end uses that energy enables are in some ways more important than the energy itself. Energy access is key to development, as evidenced by its inclusion in many international agreements. Renewable, low carbon energy is the direction that we all need to go. Technology transfer involves many actors and stakeholders, all of whom face risk and reward from the process. Investment is needed for success and financial incentives will play a role in enabling transfer from north to south. There are various investors; from international institutions & multi lateral programs, through government, NGOs, and private. There are also a great many investment trends and partnerships (Wilkins, 2002). Taking north-south transfer another step to North-south-south transfer may be a very successful tool to implement. This way, financing and basic technology can come from the north, and then added to that baseline would be more local knowledge transfer and exchange. This would help create the necessary autonomy and adaptations to meet particular needs. There are many finance mechanisms in place and more in the planning stages to help facilitate transfer and get out of the polarized debate that exists. CDM is seen as great potential for funding towards renewable, with the right comprehensive design (Wilkins, 2002). Global Energy Security and Cooperation Moving away from the developing world and to a global perspective - energy security around the globe is a colossal pressing issue today. Energy security is defined as “equitable providing available, affordable, reliable, efficient, environmentally benign, proactively governed and socially acceptable energy services to end-users”(Sovacool, 2012). Today’s energy system is outdated in terms of both energy sources and security measures. Moving to a low-carbon, renewable source-based system would alleviate significant causes and threats of energy insecurity. There are four broad categories of energy security threats: availability, affordability, efficiency, and impact management. The current fossil fuel system presents and perpetuates major risks in all of these categories (Sovacool, 2012). A low carbon, renewable based system would provide solutions to all of these categories. Currently, the fossil fuel based energy supply chain is vulnerable to a host of risks; geopolitical instability, natural disasters, gas disputes, price fluctuations, equipment breakdown, dependence on foreign supply located in politically volatile regions, etc. Further, the supply is finite and the actions necessary to access diminishing supplies are becoming more expensive, environmentally destructive, and risky. Low carbon, clean energy has positive implications across the board. Renewable resources are plentiful around the world, not concentrated in a few areas, thus reducing import dependence and related dangers. With RE, prices would be stabilized and the industry insulated from price spikes, the energy base would be diversified, demand would be decreased and efficiency dramatically increased. Interruptions, shortages, accidents, delays and international conflicts would all be reduced (Sovacool, 2012). Energy policy not only needs extensive reform but also needs to be intertwined with foreign and economic policy. Kalicki & Goldwyn (2005) present projections and forecasts for 2030 showing a dependency on oil similar to today, with the same sorts of vulnerabilities, if we do not make changes to our energy system. This is one of the main reasons why foreign policy decisions and changes are needed; to manage vulnerabilities and dangers like price volatility, geopolitical unrest, terrorism, etc that accompany the current energy system. The projections Kalicki & Goldwyn present are based on current trends, but the authors indicate that there are many options to take and should new directions be pursued, the 2030 projections would be quite different. These new directions absolutely include transitioning to a renewable low carbon energy system. We are at a point today where there is opportunity for positive, long lasting changes to be created through foreign policy and tied into economics and energy security. Challenges are huge and so to would be the cost, but it is necessary if we are to achieve energy security at all levels of the definition. Major political and social transformations are needed and we are somewhat trapped in our current ways. If we stay on our current path, the outlook for energy security is bleak. If we can transition to renewables and plan for a sustainable system by 2050 (and benchmarks along the way), energy security and related risks will inevitably improve. Energy and foreign policy are intimately connected and need to be addressed as such for overall security; energy, domestic, economic, political, etc (Kalicki & Goldwyn, 2005). Global Solar Economy The energy transition to a sustainably sourced, low carbon energy system by 2050 is no small feat. It is comparable in scope to the industrial revolution. There is no one-size-fits all plan of action for all regions around the world as resources and needs are so variable. To help guide the changes, the World Watch Report has created an outline system to design successful policy and transition out of fossil fuel and into a renewable energy system. There is no internationally agreed upon approach for how to design strategies and plans for sustainability and climate/energy priorities. There is international agreement that development strategies are needed but no universally accepted set of elements to include, nor any evaluative tool. The WWR plan is intended to fill that void. The roadmap is designed so that it can be applied anywhere and at any scale and will produce results, information, and useful advisement specific to that area. They seek to assess the specific needs and circumstances of each region in order to help policymakers and stakeholders create the best plan, strategy, and priorities for their needs and purposes. The methodology is an integrated approach to determining physical, technical, socioeconomic, political, and market potential for renewable energy development. It is a thorough, complex, and comprehensive plan with great promise as a tool to help drive the energy revolution. The success of the roadmaps depends largely on community and government commitment, just as the global energy transition truly requires all stakeholders to participate and cooperate (Ochs et al, 2012). As mentioned previously, the best resource candidates for achieving 2050 goals are wind and solar. They are abundant, free, and the technology exists and can be deployed at a greater scale. Welch et al (2008) argue for wind as the primary technology towards this end and as something capable of achieving “dual sustainability” which can satisfy both environmental and financial goals. Considering the intersected nature of economic, energy, and foreign policy, meeting dual sustainability goals is of paramount importance. Wind is clean, renewable, and free. It has emerged as a leading prospect and can be financially sustainable based on a convergence of factors including improved technology, increased efficiency, and with competing energy sources becoming more cost prohibitive. Welch et al feel that wind energy is close to becoming self-sustaining – without the need for extensive government support (2008). Zweibel et al (2007) make a similarly strong argument for solar power as the primary energy source for the U.S. They set out a plan including energy generation, transmission, storage, and financing for all of these. This is another plan outlining how achieving a low carbon sustainable energy system is possible by 2050. It can be done but not without subsidies and other financial incentives, political leadership, and public support. If we can move forward will we see improvements in all areas – efficiency, cost, energy security, equality, energy independence, etc. As this is a progressive and evolving process, benchmarks and goals between here and 2050 are important. “Plan B energy economy” could be a good midway point to focus on for the near term (Brown, 2011). This plan is centered on wind, solar, and geothermal power with goals for 2020. The goal is to cut carbon 80% by 2020 with wind as centerpiece and solar and geothermal the other main energy sources. Work is in progress and more is needed to achieve the 2020 goals. Brown (2011) presents a hopeful and realistic argument that we can achieve the 2020 goals with progress being made around the world. Here too, policies need to be appropriate for particular countries and their needs. Conclusion An overhaul of the current global energy system is necessary and possible. Moving to a sustainable energy system is paramount to our future. There is a long list of global issues that need to be resolved and energy is not only one of them, but can help resolve others. The changes will be huge and far-reaching; long term and global. Reformation of the energy system is vital to all of humanity, from the modern developed world to the poorest rural parts of the globe. An energy supply sourced by sustainable, renewable methods offers limitless supply, increased energy diversification, improved global energy security, reduced vulnerabilities in the developing world, and critically needed alleviation of energy poverty. A renewable resourced based energy system will enable us to combat the mounting environmental crises we face today and move into the future in a sustainable and environmentally harmonious way. This transition will take hard, dedicated work from people all over the world. Combining the right technologies, international cooperation, strong political leadership, substantive policy reform, global investment, and perhaps most importantly, societal transformation, the goal of a renewable energy system by 2050 is possible.