ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF GRADUA TE STUDIES COLLEGE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES INSTITUTE OF REGIONAL AND LOCAL DEVELOPMENT STUDIES THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON PASTORALISM IN ETHIOPIA: THE CASE OF AWASH BY Miftah Mohammed Advisor: Dr Mulugeta Abebe (PHD) AD.IS ABABA UNIVERSITY .A.IiAK.I CAMPUS UBRARY June, 2014 \ r { ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES COLLEGE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES INSTITUTE OF REGIONAL AND LOCAL DEVELOPMENT STUDIES ADDIS ABABA UNlVEH./lI'r\' AKAKI CAMPUS LIBRARY THE EFFECT 0 F CLImrT'i"nltV~f.ASO RALISM IN ETHIOPIA: THE CASE OF AWASH A thesis submitted to the School of Graduate Studies of Addis Ababa University in tZ~05yvc.J Partial fulfillment of the requirement for the Degree of Master of Arts in cf {/fJ c-«-f Development Studies BY Miftah Mohammed Advisor: Dr Muillgeta Abebe (PHD) June, 2014 ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY GRADUATE SCHOOL OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES CENTER FOR REGIONAL AND LOCAL DEVELOMENT STUDIES THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON PASTORALISM IN ETHIOPIA: THE CASE OF AWASH A thesis submitted to the School of Graduate Studies Addis Ababa University in Partial Fulfillment of the requirement for Degree of Master of Arts in Regional and Local Development Studies (RLDS). By Miftah Mohammed, SIGNATURE APPROVED BY BOARD OF EXAMINERS F ACULTY CHAIR MAN mp1UfUGETA 1-BEBp - J \ : JUt'M.fi ADVISOR' - J -~ -~ - -- - ;:~ -~ ~- DR.BEAMLAK ALAMREW - ~,L? ~- - EXTERNAL EXAMINER ~ DR.WELDAMLAK BEWKET INTERNAL EXAMINER I ADDIS ABABA UN TV F. I{ S I1~ AKAKI CAMPUs LIBRARY •.............. ACKNOWELDGMENTS Above all, MAY ALLAH BE PRAISED. I am thankful to God for favor and mercy bestowed upon me. My great appreciation and thanks are due to all those who helped me in having this study become real. It is my pleasure to express my heartfelt appreciation and special gratitude to my advisor, Dr Mulugeta Abebe, from Institute of Regional and Local Development Studies, who gave me appropriate guidance, through insightful comments, corrections and encouragement at all stages of the study. l owe my earnest thanks to Dr Beamlak Alamrew and Dr Weldamlak Bewket for encouraging me to work my research on this topic and more importantly for their constructive and critical comments given me as my examiner during my paper defense. My gratitude and thanks are due to officials and experts working in Awash wereda and the Afar pastoralists for Cooperating with me in doing this research in their locality and providing me with valuable information and data. My appreciation goes to all informants that participate in key informant and household interview as well as focu s group discussion sessions for the time, accommodation they provided me and above all for their cooperation in enabl ing my data collection task successful. I would also pay tribute to Mr. Abdulkadir Mah and Partnership for Pastoralists Development Association (P APDA) for the support provided me and Ato Murha Abekeri for smoothing my data collection task in the wereda, to Ato Ahmed Mohammed Musa who has helped me a lot during data collection throughout the fieldwork and Ato Mohammed Detona for his contribution in translating interview scripts from Afar to Engli sh and Amharic and for hi s valuable contribution in the due analysis process. Lastly but not least, I would like to extend my gratitude and thanks to my parents and my wife for being besides me throughout my career endeavor and personal development. LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS/ACRONYMS AU African Union ANRS Afar National Regional State ASAL Arid and Semi-Arid Land CVA Capacity and Vulnerability Assessment CSA Central Statistics Authority DFID Department for International Development EU European Union IIRR International Institute of Rural Reconstruction IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IGAD Inter Governmental Authority Development FDRE Federal Democratic Republic Ethiopia FGD Focus Group Discussion IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development ILRI International Livestock Research Institute IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change KII Key Informant Interview PRA Participatory Rural Appraisal NAPA National Adaptation Programs of Action OD! Overseas Development Institute PCI Pastoralist Communication Initiative SLA Sustainable Livelihoods Approach TLU Tropical Livestock Unit UK United Kingdom UNICEF United Nations Children' s Fund UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNOCHA United Nations Office for coordination Humanitarian Affair USAID United States Agency for International Development VCA Vulnerability Capacity Assessment ii Table of contents List of Contents Pages Acknowledgement-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 Acronyms ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------II Tab leo f Content -------------------- ------- ------------------------------------------ -----------------------II I List of tab Ies ------- ---------------------------- --- ----------------- ------- ----------------------- --- ---------VI List 0 f fi gures------------------------------- ---------- ------ ------------------------------------------------V II List ofgraplls------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------VII Abstract ______________________________________________________-----------------------------------------------VII Cha pter 0 n e: G en era I In tro d u ctio n ---------------------------------------------------------------------1 1.1 Backgrounds ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 1.2 Statement of the Pro b Iem----------- -------------------------- -----------------------------------------3 1.3 Research Questions-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------4 1.4 0 bj ecti ves of the Stud y-------- ------------------------------------- ------ ------------------------------5 1.4.1 General obj ecti ve -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------5 1.4.2 S pecifi cobj ecti ves------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 5 1.5 Significance of Study ------------------ ---------- -- ---- -------------------- ----------------------------- 5 Cha pter two: Li tera tu re Revi ew -------------------------------------------------------------------------6 2.1 Introduction ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------6 2.2. Definitions and conceptualization of terms framework -----------------------------------------10 2.2.1 Definition of pastoralism ---------------------------------------------------------------------------10 2.2.2. Conceptualizing Vulnerability ----------- --------------------------------------------------------11 2.2.3. Vulnerability Assessment Approach-------------------------------------------------------------13 2.2.4 Anal yti cal framewo rk ---------- -------------------------- ---------------------- ----------- --- --------15 2.2.5 Perspectives on livelihood vulnerabi lity in pastoral area---------------------------------------16 2.2.6 The vu lnerability of livelihood perspective-------------------------------------------------------20 2. 3. Empirical literature revi ew------------------------------ ------ ---------------------------------------24 2.3 .1. Major debates on pastoral development and cl imate change----------------------------------24 2.3.2 The tragedy of commons and pastoral pessimisI11------------------------------------------------24 2.3.3 . Positi ve view of Pastorali sm ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------26 2.4. Pastorali sm and Ethiopian development pol icy----------------------------------------------------34 iii 2.5 Climate Change policies and frameworks in Ethiopia-------------------------------------------35 2.6. Sum mary ----- ------------ ----------------------------------------------- --- ------ ---------------------36 3. Chapter Three: Research Methods----------------------------------------------------------------38 3.1 General profi Ie 0 f Afar region-----------------------------------------------------------------------38 3 .1.1 Biophysical futures--------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 38 3.1.2. General cl imatic information---------------------------------------------------------------------38 3.1.3. Livel ihoods of Afar Pastoralist -------------------------------------------------------------------39 3.1 .4 Mobil ity---------------------------------- ------------- ---- -------------------------------------------39 3. 1.5 Study Area --------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------40 3.2 Research Desi gn---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------41 3.3 Method of data collection ----------------------------------------------------------------------------42 3 .4. Methods of data Analysi s------------- ------- ------------------- -------------------------------------4 5 3.5. Val idation of data-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------4 5 Chapter Four: Results and Discussions--------------------------------------------------------------46 4.1 pastoralists Perception of climate change----------------------------------------------------------46 4.2 Major imacts of climate change in Awash------------------------------------------------- -------53 4.2.1 Drought---------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------5 3 4.2.2 Livestock and human d isease------- --------------- ------- ----------------------------------------54 4.3 . Effect on acti vi ty profi Ie------------- ---------------- ------- ---------------------------------------- -57 4.3.1. Effect on women work load----------------------------------------------------------------------5 9 4.4 Change on resource, access and control profile---------------------------------------------------61 4.4.1 Effect on natural biodiversity of grass, and wild lives-----------------------------------------62 4.4.2 Effect of Prosopis on resources access and control--------------------------------------------65 4.5 Trad itional environment preservation and management institution in Afar -----------------65 4.5.\ Erena: Afaris environmental protection and natural resource management system-------66 4.6. Implication of Prosopi s charcoal business on Erena---------------------------------------------67 4.7 Climate change and vulnerability of livelihood---------------------------------------------------71 4.7. 1 Change in household consumption and income------------------------------------------------72 4.8. Climate change effect on pastoral mobility------------------------------------------------------74 4.8.1 Diversifying livelihoods ------------------------------------------------------------------------77 iv 4.9. Coping mechani sms----------------------------- -- ---- ------------------------ --------------------83 4.9.1 Vulnerability and capacity assessment -------------------------------------------------------86 C hap te r F iv e--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------8 9 Summary of Findings, Conclusions, Suggestion and Recommendation-------------------89 5. I Summary 0 f F indings---- -------------------------------------------------------------------------89 5.1.1 community perception of changes-------------------------------------------------------------90 5.1.2. Impacts of climate change --------------------------------------------------------------------9 1 5.2 Conclusions-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------92 5.3 Suggestions and Recommendations-------------------------------------------------------------94 References --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------100 Appendix -------------------------- ---------------------------------------- --- ------------- -------------11 7 v l List of tables Table I: Historical Comparison of Drought Events in Ethiopia Major drought events--------------------23 Table 2: The performance of settled versus migratory cattle in western Sudan------------------- 35 Table 3: Rain season in Afar as known to responders and remembered----------------------------46 Table 4: Observed change on rainfall -------------------------------------------------------------------50 Tab Ie 5: Percepti ons for variabiIity----------------------------- ------------------------------ -----------52 Table 6: Observed changes in livestock disease over the last 20 years-----------------------------55 Table 7: Animal species that are in extinction----------------------------------------------------------62 Table 8: Trees and grass species disappeared in last 20 years in Awash area---------------------64 Table 9: List of coping mechanisms---------------------------------------------------------------------83 Table 10: Perceived changes Vi s adaptation mechanisms used by the community---------------84 Table II: summery of vulnerabilities identified by the community in group discussion---------87 vi LIST OF FIGURES Fig I: Conceptual framework for vulnerability assessments---------, -------------------------!4 Fig 2: Map of the study area----------------------------------------------------------------------------42 Fig 3: Women interv iewee in Awash-----------------------------------------------------------------43 Fig 4: young pastoralist interviewee in Awash----------------------- ---------------------------43 Fig 5: Key informant interview with elder-------------------------------------------------------44 Fig 6: Drought related death of livestock-------------------------------------------------------------54 Fig 7: Afar Women construct ing Afar is local house -----------------------------------------------------57 Fig 8 Afar women keeping shoats-----------------------------------------------------------------59 Fig 9 Afar women in Cut and carry feed from national parks-------------------------------60 Fig 10 Afar cattle grazing in plateau areas-------------------------------------------------------65 Figl! Showing thick Prosopis in Awash---------------------------------------------------------69 Fig 12 wood used for charcoal--------------------------------------------- -------------------------69 Fig 11 3 Pro sop is charcoal productions in zone 3 in Afar region--------------------------------71 LIST OF BOXES Box 1: Box !.interview on the effect of climate change on pastoralist's livelihood-------50 LIST OF GRAPHS Graph! Trends of Sugum rainfa II (1970-201 0) -----------------------------------------------------49 Graph 2.trends of total annual rainfall------------------------------------------------------------51 Graph 3: Trends of average max temperature e in the area in last 20 years-----------------53 vii l " The Effect of Climate Change on Pastoralism in Ethiopia: The Case of Awash Abstract: Climate change is one of the greatest challenges that the world is facing today. Climate change has become world top 10 challenges which pose a risk to livelihood security. The risk is higher in countries and regions where the dependence on natural resources is high and the adaptive capacity to climatic changes is low. Afar is such a region. The majority of the region 's population's sources of income, employment and food depend on pastoralism and agriculture. With the repeated incidence of drought, it becomes important to understand the impacts of climate change on pastoral livelihoods. The research into climate change effect on livelihood is still in an early stage of development and little work has been done in the area particularly as this related to the case of climate change effect on the pastOf'alist community in Ethiopia. Building on a case study of pastoralists in Awash wereda, this thesis explores and analyzes how the interaction of climate change effect with non climatic stressors contribute to vulnerability of livelihoods. To address the objective of the research qualitative research method is used. The framework of Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment (VCA) is used. Thus PRA tools such as transect walk, observation, together with interview and focus group discussion techniques of qualitative data collection are employed to generate the data. Key underlying drivers of vulnerability in Awash wereda emanate}i'om climatic and non climatic factors. These are environmental degradation; encroachment of land by Prosopis, population pressures; resource scarcity induced conflicts; inadequate non pastoral, non farming opportunities; poor access to in}i'astructure; resources and services; weakening role of traditional institutions. The pastoralists have been responding to these changes using different coping mechanisms. They are using traditional adaptation mechanisms of mobility, social safety net and herd splilting. But this has become weakening and people have started new mechanisms of coping. These are diversification of sources of income, employment and feeding. The new livelihood strategies such as farming, trading and waged labour are challenged by limitations in skill, knowledge and resource. The efforts underway, the initiatives and changes occurring in pastoralism should therefore be augmented and supported through investment and knowledge transfer. Interventions shouldfocus in addressing the underlying drivers of vulnerability of livelihood to be successjitl. Key words: Climate change, Afar, pastoralism, livelihood, vulnerability, coping mechanism, diversification. viii I ADDIS A_A BA UNTVERSITY AKAKI CAMPUS LlBHAHY Chapter one: General Introduction 1. 1. Background Pasoralism is a way of life and a production system that primarily depends on livestock herding. It is a production strategy in which people raise herd animals as a means to earn a livelihood, particularly in arid and sem i arid areas (Sandford, 1983). The pastorali st population in Africa is estimated at 268 million, living on an area representing about 43 percent of the continent's total land mass. Pastoralism contributes to 10 to 44 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of African countries (Roger 2001: II , African Union, 2012: 10). In Ethiopia Pastoralism makes up a livelihood for about 20% of the total population. Moreover, in Ethiopia the pastoralists reside in about 60% of the total land area of the country. Over 70% of the country's livestock export potential and 75% of its wildlife are also located in the arid and semi arid pastoral areas (African Union, 20 10:2). The pastoral areas of Ethiopia and the horn are known for their arid and semi arid ecology. This is characteri zed by intermittent, small and unpredictable amount of annual rain fall (A frican Union, 2010, Wassie etal, 2008:3, Roger 2001 :46).The pastoral community survived in this ecology for centuries via resembling and blending to the environment. However the deterioration in local, regional and global environmental conditions affected pastoralists more than any other community (Co1ll1enay Cabot Venton etal , 2012:15). This is due to the fact that pastoralism relies on the availability of water, pastures and labour to thrive - with water as the determining factor. In other words Pastoralists depend for their survival on ecosystem and natural resources exploitation. And climate change primarily affects the ecology by creating anomali es in the environmental conditions. Climate change thus affects pastoralism which has strong dependency in the well functioning of the wider ecology. Climate change and global warming-effect accelerated phenomenon of natural calamity. This has been manifested by increasing trend in the occurrence of natural disaster in dry land areas of the country. Consequently, drought has become frequent phenomenon in these areas. This in turn 1 has had a repercussion impact on pastoral societies making their livelihood to become the most vulnerable (Courtenay Cabot Venton etal 2012: 16). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change CIPCC), in its Second Assessment Report, defines vulnerability as "the extent to which climate change may damage or harm a system." It adds that vulnerability "depends not only on a system 's sensitivity, but also on its ability to adapt to new climatic conditions" (Watson et al. 1996: 23).Vulnerability to climate change by the pastoral societies of Ethiopia is not only resulted from the dependency of the community on ecosystem and the effect of climate change on the environment but it also resulted from the socio economic and political conditions in which pastoralism operates. That the pastoral areas of Ethiopia has been marginalized and the governments and nongovernmental actors in the past have made little investment on basic physical and human infrastructure (African Union 2012: 17, Kate Wellard Dyer, 2012: vii).Thi s has resulted in a situation where the pastoral communities of the country to be Poor, underdeveloped and with weak resilience. Accordingly the pastoralist became one of the most vulnerable communities in Ethiopia (ODI 2009: I). According to Ribot (1996), inequality and marginalization are among the most important determinants of vulnerability (Santiago: 200 I :9). This made societies capacity very weak hence the pastoralists to be highly susceptible to any kind of shocks. Despite the economic, ecological and social value of pastoralism and the pastoral communities in Ethiopia, it has not obtained the required attention by development actors and policy makers in the country in the past. This resulted in weakness in pastoral communities' resilience, sensitivity and adaptation capacity. On the other hand, in spite of pastoralism being a way of life designed to respond to the changing environment, the accelerated deterioration in global climate since recent decades posed threat to the well being of this way of life. Pastoralists suffered from vulnerability to climate change. In this paper, we study the effect of climate change on livelihood of pastoralist and agro pastorali st people. We focus on the various effects of climate change on pastorali sts in Afar region specificall y on natural biodiversity, livestock production, resource of land and pasture, pastoral way of life and socio economic aspects of the pastoral societies. How this relates to 2 vulnerability of livelihoods. We di scuss other non climatic factors that caused or relate to the susceptibility and vulnerability of the pastoralist people to natural and manmade shocks. The different approaches used as means of adaptation to climate change and or resilience are to be studied and analyzed in light of their relevance and applicability to serve the purposes in the pastoral areas of Ethiopia. 1.2. Problem Statement Ethiopia hosts a large popUlation of pastoralists and agI'o pastoralists. Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia are countries that have pastoralists as considerable percentage of their population. In Ethiopia, pastoralists occupy larger geographical area and pastoralism is a source of national revenue and provides employment opportunity to considerable percentage of the country's total population. Pastoral areas of Ethiopia cover about 63 % of the country's landmass and constitute 12% of the total population (CSA, 2008., MoARD., 2008). Ethiopia ranks the fifth of the largest group of pastoralists in the world. In Ethiopia the livestock-dependant leather industry is the second largest source of foreign currency after coffee (African Union, 2010:12). Pastoralism is a means of living used by people who are coping with the changing environment they are surrounded by (African Union 2012:21, OD! 2009:2, and Roger 2001). Pastoralist survived for centuries in areas where aridity is dominant and the amount of annual precipitation is small. Through its dynamic, flexible and complex structures pastoralism has proved to be adaptive to uncomfortable natural conditions of dry lands by providing and conserving a large array of ecosystem services in semi-arid and arid ecologies. During the last decade 's of the millennium pastoralism has been recognized as essential for the sustainable management and ecological health of dry lands, and as also highly sensitive to increasing environmental degradation and global warming. At the same time climate change affects pastoralism and all ecosystem services it provides. For developing countries like Ethiopia, the effect of climate change is particularly daunting. The arid and semi arid areas of Africa have been known by irregularity in climatic conditions. This is especially true to the pastoral area in Ethiopia and the horn of Africa. In other words " Drought is endemic to the Horn and no one has known it otherwise. The fluctuations of rainfall have been 3 noted for as long as records have been kept, and pastoralist communities have lived and thrived through peaks and troughs of precipitation for centuries" (International Federation on Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies 20 11 :8). Due to deterioration in global environmental and climatic condition the frequency and intensity of droughts has increased in recent years, severely affecting the livelihoods of millions of pastorali st peoples (MRC Teclmical Paper, 20 10:2). Extreme weather conditions, increases in flood s, and land degradation have placed additional stress on economic base and productive assets and increased the vulnerability of the pastoral households. Livestock numbers were tremendously reduced in some areas. Livelihoods have suffered very much from consecutive droughts. These have caused food insecurity among the pastoral communities in the study area (Belay Simane, 2012, 9). The drought conditions in the year 20 II have most severely affected pastoralists and their animals, with the largest impacts in regions of northern Kenya, south eastern Ethiopia and Somalia. According to reports, estimated number of vulnerable populations affected by this drought estimated 3.2 million in Ethiopia (UN report, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 2011 :1). Climate change and the combined effects of soil erosion and reduced vegetation cover/deforestation is also leading to biodiversity loss with its longer consequences of loss of indigenous knowledge and information systems on pastoral production and natural resource management. The Afar pastoralist people are located in the southeastern lowland areas of Ethiopia. This area is characterized by arid and semi arid land (ASAL) in which pastoralism is the dominant mode of production as well as way of life for the majority of people. This livestock herding dependent way of life is highly tied to natural resources of pastures and water exploitation to thrive. This makes pastoralism inherently to be sensiti ve to climate change and extremely exposed to climate change impacts. The pastoralist and agro pastoral communities in Awash area have been exposed to reCUITent incidence of drought, resource use induced confli cts and the livelihood of the pastoral community in the area is as a whole characterized by vulnerability. For this there are different explanations given by actors and scholars. This include relating the vulnerability of livelihood among pastoralist to climate change, seeing the issue in light of Malthusian causation 4 and association the problem with political and economIc marginalization and policy related challenges. The balance is that the vulnerability of livelihood in pastoral areas including in Afar region should be seen beyond natural calamity resu lting from climate change. Climate could trigger the problem but could not be the sole reason for livelihood vulnerability. Owing to the aforementioned problems understanding the contribution of climate change effect to the vulnerability oflivelihood among Afaris become vital. 1.3. Research Question In line with the background of the study and problem statement mentioned above the research tries to answer following questions: 1. How do different individuals and social groups in pastoral communities perceive and interpret climatic and socioeconomic changes? 2. What are the major climatic and socioeconomic impacts of these changes on the li velihoods of pastoral communities? 3. What are the underlying causes of vulnerability shaping pastoral communities? 4. How do pastoral communities respond to the perceived changes? 5. What are the main livelihood assets of pastoral communities for adapting to, enviroru11ental and socioeconomic changes? 1.4. Objectives of the Study 1.4.1. General Objective Generally the study aims to assess the effect of climate change on natural bio diversity and socio cultural assets of the pastoralist community and the contribution of this to the vulnerability of livelihood of pastorali sts. 1.4.2 The Specific Objectives are to: • To asses pastoral communities perception to climate change and climate change effect • Reflect on the effect of climate change on livelihood situation on the pastorali st in Afar 5 Chapter Two: Literature Review 2.1. Introduction Climate change has become a matter of concern for policy makers, development actors and communities at various levels. Climate change posed an inescapable challenge that society would have to deal with. Recent scientific studies and reports of international institutions and organizations that are concerned with global climate issues including National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), r recognized the deterioration in world climatic condition especially since the last fifty years . The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has established that atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases to have increased markedly since the Industrial Revo lution (Climate change fact sheet ppl , UNFCC AND UNEP 2002:5). According to NASA the evidence of rapid climate change is compelling. These include global sea level ri se of 17 meter, global temperature rise, warming of oceans, shrinking and decrease in mass of The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, Glaciers are retreating almost everywhere around the world - including in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa, increasing extreme events, increasing in ocean acidification. More importantly climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities, and most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position(UNFCC and UNEP 2002:5,NASA accessed on October 2013).Moreover according to World Bank 201 2 climate change not only impacted on the socio economic aspects of most developing countries but the area of the Earth's land surface affected by drought has also increased substantially over the last 50 years, faster than proj ected by climate models (World Bank 2012: XV). Climate change is already a reality in Africa with tremendous impact on the continents development. There are recurrent and intensified droughts in eastern Africa; unprecedented flash floods in western Africa; and an increase in ocean acidity around Africa's southern coast. Vastly altered weather conditions and climate extremes threaten agricultural production and food security, health, water and energy, which in turn undermine Africa's ability to grow 7 and develop. Climate and environmentally related disasters which threaten human security can induce forced migration(Brown,2007:8) and produce competition among communities and nations for water and basic need resources, with potential negative consequences for political stability and potentially lead to conflict among and between competing nations and groups (Anthony etal.20 1O,IGAD 20 12:6,Hany etal.2009:2,Stark,2011 , Bogale,2006:29). Climate change is considered as posing the greatest threat to agriculture and food security in the 21 st century, particularly in many of the poor, agriculture-based countries of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with their low capacity to effectively cope (Meseret, 2009:2,MRC Technical Paper 2010:2,Eva Ludi 2009 :2).Current estimates indicate that the greatest losses in suitable cropland due to climate change are likely to be in sub-Saharan Africa. The region's dependence on rain-fed agriculture means that production is vulnerable to climatic variability, which can adversely affect food security, human well-being and exports (Gordon 2009). In general sense the most important impacts of climate change on rural livelihoods include increases in environmental risks, reduction in livelihood opportunities and stresses on existing social institutions (Pekka etal. 20 11 :3). Ethiopia is among developing countries list contributor but most vulnerable to climate change. The World Bank estimates that Ethiopia's carbon dioxide emissions per capita stood at 0.1 metric ton of C02 per capita in 2007-11, as compared for instance to 17.9t/C 02 in the United States, 9.6t in Germany, S.3t in China and l.St in 1ndiaEvans,2012:29). Ethiopia' s high vulnerability derives in large measure from the country's heavy dependence on agriculture and natural resource exploitation for its economic survival. Agricultural production is highly vulnerable as it is dependent on rainfall (WFP-Ethiopia, 2009: 10). In Ethiopia the impact of climate change is felt in almost all economic and social sectors, including agriculture, pastorali sm and or livestock, water, energy and health sector .one consequence of climate change is recurrence of drought and other natural hazards(Meseret,2009 1-2). RecUlTent droughts occurring in different parts of the country have caused loss of human! animal lives and productive assets and have had a considerable effect on the national economy (NAPA, 2007 : VII). Oxfam estimates that drought alone costs Ethiopia $1.1 billion 8 per year (Derek etal 20 12:1venton etal 2012: 14,USAID , 2011 , UNDP,2007/8:29-33). In addition to Droughts, fl oods are al so very common occurrences in Ethiopia. Major flood s occurred in different parts of the country in 1988, 1993 , 1994, 1995 , 1996 and 2006 leading to loss of life and property (IGAD , 2008:27-28). Cl imate change has become a major feature of development di scussions about pastoralism. It has become so because pastoralist have been suffered severely from effect of climate change and it is projected that climate change in much of the arid and semi arid areas wi ll be manifested in increased frequency and severity of drought and that pastoralists will more and more become victims of this. It is also partly because Some researchers assert that pastoralism itself, like other forms of livestock production, is an emitter of greenhouse gases, particularly methane, and 111 a way disproportionate to its economic value (Gomes,2006:6,Oxfam 2008:3). Projecting future cl imates in pastoral areas is also fraught with uncertainty. Regional projections in the literature (for example the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC) are usually for long timescales (e.g. 2080-2099) and for large regions that include both pastoral and sedentary farm ing areas. More localized projections fore see that the arid and semi-arid grazing systems in East Africa as hi ghly vulnerable to a combination of climate change and socio-economic factors. More generally, there is an assumption that pastoral areas face an increased risk of drought events, due to increased variability of rainfall but also higher temperatures, even if mean rainfall is predicted to rise (Gordon 2009). These projections of future climate in pastoral areas have led to a polarized di scussion of impacts on pastoralists. On the one hand there is a fear, that pastoralist livelihoods, especially in East Africa, are fast becoming unsustainable: pastoralists are in danger of becoming "the first climate refugees". On the other hand, there is a view, presented by NGOs and others that pastorali sts are by their nature adapters, and if left to themselves will adapt, quite possibly more successfu ll y than dry land crop-farmers (little, 2010, IIRR, 2003, Brooks, 2006, petrsberg, 2010, AU 2010).So in one or another way climate change is important issue in pastoral development di scourse and li terature. This is particularly due to the fact that 9 pastoralism has closer attachment to the well being of ecology in general and the vulnerable livelihood situation among pastorali sts. 2.2. Definitions and Conceptualization of terms The first part of this chapter will briefly define pastorali sm and discusses concepts and terms used in literature of climate change and livelihood vulnerability. The second part introduces the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach (SLA) and the vulnerability Capacity Assessment (VCA) method in climate change study. 2.2.1 Definition of pastoralism Pastoralism is a way of life and a production system for a large number of Africans. Pastoralists mostly inhabit in arid and semi-arid ecology (Oxfam, 2008:7, AU, 20 10, Roger, 2001). Pastoralism is a way of life for some 20 million people across sub-Saharan Africa. The categorization of pastoralism is usually made by the degree of movement. This is nomadic, transhumant and agro-pastoralism (Africa union 2010:5, Roger, 2001:11). Pastoralists are people who depend primarily on consuming and selling livestock or livestock products like milk. Apart from meat and milk, livestock fibers and hides can also be of substantial economic importance. Agro pastoralism is a production that combines agriculture with pastoralism. Agro-pastoral ists engage in rearing of livestock and cultivation of arable land for production of crops and cereals to feed their fami li es. (Roger 200 1: 11). Pastoralists typically graze their animals on communally-owned and -accessed pastures, and move in search of water and pasture seasonally (African Union, 2011 :5, Kate Wellard Dyer 20 12: IV). Mobility in pastoralism is made with rational decision that aims at efficient, effective and sustainable use of grazing resources and water (Africa Union, 2012:6, Kate Wellard Dyer 2012: 1, Oxfam , 2008 : 2).Mobility in pastoralism is also made as a strategy to cope with the changing environmental cond iti ons. Mobility widens the option for the pastoralist's group 's access to water points and grazing pasture which irregularly distributed in the wider ecology. The pastoral way of life is inherently designed shaped and developed as a response to the arid and semi arid eco logy sUlTounding it and the marked rainfall variabi lity characterizing it. 10 In this way pastoralist has long ago been learnt how to blend in to the environment. The blending in to the environment strategies traditionally been used include the rearing of different livestock species, to utilize different types of vegetation and because each species has different watering requirements, selective breeding to improve drought resistance and milk production traits of their livestock. 'They also altered the species composition of their herds in the face of rainfall and other trends, such as market oPPo11unities. Pastoralism adapted to drier periods and wetter periods, to changes in disease ri sks, and to conflict." (African Union 2010:22). 2.2.2. Conceptualizing Vulnerability The bulk of literature on vulnerability and adaptation contains a sometimes confusing collection of terms: vulnerability, sensitivity, resilience, adaptation, adaptive capacity, risk, hazard, coping, and so on (IPCC, 2001; Adger et aI., 2002 ; Burton et aI. , 2002).The relationships between these terms are often ambiguous, and the same term may have different meanings when used in different contexts and by different authors. These terms defined by different authors and actors differently depending on the point of view the definition aims to serve. Researchers from the natural hazards field for example focu s on the concept of risk, while those from the social sciences and climate change field prefer to talk in terms of vulnerability (Downing et aI., 2001; Allen, 2003).Social scientists and climate scientists often mean different things when they use the term "vulnerability" . Social scientists tend to view vulnerabil ity as representing the set of socio-economic factors that determine people's ability to cope with stress or change (Allen, 2003), where as climate scientists often view vulnerability in terms of the likelihood of occurrence and impacts of weather and climate related events. Definitions of vulnerability in the climate change related literature tend to fall into two categories, viewing vu lnerability either (i) in terms of the amount of (potential) damage caused to a system by a paI1icular climate-related event or hazard (Jones and Boer, 2003), or (ii) as a state that exists within a system before it encounters a hazard event (Allen, 2003). The 11 Looking at vulnerabi lity from the food security point of view, the FAO publication The State of Food Insecurity in the World (1999), defines vulnerabi lity as "the presence of factors that place people at risk of becoming food insecure or malnourished." Clearly, this definition encompasses causes of food insecurity other than climate change (e.g., armed conflict, landlessness, etc). Nevertheless, the concept of vulnerability includes hunger vulnerabilitywhich refers to the vu lnerabili ty of individuals or households rather than that of regions or economic sectors. Within the Sustainable Livel ihoods approach (SLA) developed by The UK Department for International Development defines a 'sustainable livelihood' in the following way: A livelihood comprises the capabilities, assets (including both material and social resources) and activities required for a means of living... A livelihood is sustainable when it can cope with and recover from stresses and shocks and maintain or enhance its capabilities and assets both now and in the future [Department For International Development]. 2.2.3. Vulnerability Assessment Approach The vulnerabi lity assessment approach emerged over the past decade from an evolution of different approaches for assessing vulnerability to climate change. Vulnerability approaches came out of (natural) science·driven assessments, which attempted to estimate potential (mainly biophysical) climate impacts. Due to the growing comprehension that vulnerability to climate change is driven not only by climatic factors but by many other variables, and because it is still not possible to predict climate change impacts on even a regional scale, and certainly not at a local scale, these impact assessments later developed into more integrated, pol icy-driven vulnerability assessments. Thus for the present framework an approach is suggested that not only considers impacts driven by climate change, but also by non· climatic factors (environmental, economic, social, demographic, teclmological, and political factors) that may have beneficial and/or adverse effects on the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of communities (Figure 1). Furthermore, this approach not only takes the existence of adaptation options into account, it also considers the community' s inherent capacity to adapt (Flissel and Klein 2006). 13 A study conducted by OD! in 2008 in pastoral resided regions in Ethiopia (namely Oromia, Afar and parts of Somali Region) reveal the presence of various risks in pastoral areas faced by the population. The most important of which are loss of productive assets due to natural and manmade calamity, declining livestock and agricultural productivity due to poor husbandry practices and technologies, breakdown of traditional institutions and social relations and problems related to access markets. These risk factors combined with the poor level of socio- economic development in the r pastoral areas affected the livelihood of the community and contributed for a sitnation of food in security characterizing the area (Sara etal 2008:8). In other words the loss of productive assets due to drought and other non climatic factors contributed to the situation of increasing household food insecurity in the study area. In addition to drought, land degradation, population pressure, low livestock and agricultural productivity are factors that caused vulnerability oflivelihood among pastoralists in Ethiopia. In addition for Oxfam 2008 the main challenges that hinder pastoral way of life and major factors behind the vulnerability of livelihood among pastoralists in Ethiopia are categorized in to four major reasons. These are: climate change, political and economic marginalization, inappropriate development policies, and increasing resource competition (Oxfam 2008:2). Corollary, in her famous study Devereux attributes vulnerability of livelihood among pastorals in Somali region to a series of shocks, some natural and some policy-related. Devereux argues that people of Somali Region experience multiple sources of vulnerability including drought, increasingly difficult policy environment and conflict- (Devereux 2006:169). Similarly UNOCHA-PCI series of studies and report on vulnerability of livelihood among pastoralists in Somali Region reveal that it has resu lted from numerous shocks and stresses, including recurrent drought, livestock marketing constraints and restricted mobility due to conflict and insecurity. Vulnerability in the region is thus multi source. It relates to poor service in health and education, low immunization and high illiteracy rate and poor governance (UNOCHA 2005: I).UNOCHA report in 2006 on the other hand support the idea 16 , that drought triggers crisis in livelihood but the main causes of vulnerability of livelihood among pastoralists in Somali Region are "social and political, not natural. " According to this report next to drought conflict is the second cause of vulnerability while poor governance is the third source of vulnerability (UNOCHA 2006 : I). Complimentary to these vIew IS the work by Magda (eta!. 2009) which maintain the argument that the fundamental problems of marginalization and weak governance lie at the root of the chronic poverty and vulnerability of pastoral areas (Magda eta!' 2009: III). In addition, according to report from the study of drought and resilience in Ethiopia and Kenya, vulnerability of livelihood in pastoral areas is caused by devastating conditions brought on by weather, conflict, government neglect or a combination of each (CoUltena eta!' 2012: 12). Conflict has often been part of pastoralist live and there are a bulk of literature written on conflict inherent in pastoral production system triggered by competition in use of scarce resource of water and pasture. In addition livestock is a fundamental form of pastoral capita!. It is the pastoralist's means for the production, storage, transport and transfer of food, wealth and cultural and ritual value. Any tlu·eat to livestock - such as lack of fodder or water, raiding, price variation, and disease - is a direct threat to pastoral livelihoods. Yet when external social, envirorunental, political and economic changes are nan-owing, pastoral livelihood options, the incidence and intensity of clashes within and between pastoral communities and other land users increase (Roger 2001 , little 2010:4, Nori etal, aD!, 2009:1-3). The other factor emphasized by many authors and actors is the economIc and political marginalization aspect oflivelifiood vulnerability (F AC, 2012: 1, Santiago, 2001 :9). This view-is based on the fact that in many societies, pastoral communities remain among the most politically and economically marginalized of groups (Nori etal:2). For many decades pastoralists have been marginalized, and their concerns have been sidelined from decision making and policy arena (African Union, 2010: Kate Wellard Dyer, 2012: IV, aD!, 2009:1). , The result is underinvestment on the areas basic human and physical infrastructure. This increased vulnerability and susceptibility to shocks of the pastoral community. 17 In Ethiopia in general and in dry land areas in patiicular the main climate-related vulnerabilities over recent decades have been: Successive poor rains: Pastorali sm is well adapted to coping with a single rain failure in a particular area, but when successive rainy seasons fail there is simply insufficient regeneration of grazing land, and pasture shrinks. This failure has been major factor for vulnerability of livelihood in many dry land areas of Ethiopia and the drought that seriously hit Afar region in the year 2003/2004 (UN-EUE 2002:7, ARSAP 2010: UNDP: 2003). Frequency of drought The frequent droughts in recent years have meant that households have had no opportunity to rebuild their assets, including livestock, with many becoming locked into a spiral of chronic food insecurity and pove11y. According to (Moreda 2012:4, Devereux and Maxwell 2001) the causes for the persistent food insecurity problems in pastoral areas of Ethiopia can be attributed to a variety of interrelated and complex factors. Yet Climatic hazards and environmental degradation are some of the main. For instance a report resu lt from assessment of livelihood in the Afar region pastorali st communities displays that drought-related shocks used to occur seldom once or twice in ten years or so, in the area in past times however they are now occurring every year or two years or less (Joanne etal: I,Oxfam,2011 :5, Belay Simane,2012:612). According to surveys of local communities, the climate in the Horn is experiencing an increase in the rates of drought. Reports from the Kenya food security group and from pastoralist communities show that drought-related shocks used to occur every ten years, and they are now occurring every five years or less. Borana communities in Ethiopia-report that- whereas droughts were recorded every 6-8 years in the past, they now occur every 1-2 years (Oxfam, 2011 :5).Consequently drought has become a common phenomenon in the Afar region causing very serious impairment on livestock production, the main source of livelihood for the pastoralists in the region. During the past 5 years, for instance, the region was hit by two severe droughts (Joanne, 2005: I). Similarly the effect of climate change resulted in increasing trends in natural hazards in Somali region. In addition to repeated incidence of drought some parts of the region along the 21 Shebelle River have been affected by flooding. This caused temporary displacement of people, loss of crop and livestock, damage to other properties. Flood ing has also caused for spread of pest infestation and water born diseases (CHF, 20 12:6). In nut shell frequency of drought in the pastoral areas has become a matter of reality. And drought is may be endemic to the dry land of the horn of Africa. For instance this assertion becomes plausible when one learn that between 1900 and 201 1, more than 18 famine periods were registered in the region's hi story. The most recent (20 10-2 11 ) drought in the arid and ( semiarid lowlands (ASAL) of the Horn of Africa has rendered over 13 million people in need of food, and caused a devastating famine in southern Somalia (Derek eta!., 2012: v, International Federation On Red Cross And Red Crescent Societies 2011 :8, World Bank Group, 20 11 :1, EU, 2012:1-3 , UNDP African human development report, 2012: 12, Oxfam, 2011:6). Table1: Major drought events in Ethiopia. Year Number of people affected 201 1 4.5m 2008 6.4m 2005 2.6m 2003 12.6m .. Source: Econom Ics of resIlience final report Unpredictable and sometimes heavy rainfall events: The climate of the dryJands is characterized by scarce absolute rainfall which fall s unreliably and within short rainy seasons, and which is often of limited availability for human use (Anderson et a!., 2008). The dry lands are also characterized by substantial and unpredictable differences in total rainfall between years, within the year and even between areas in one year (Anderson et a!. , 2008). These make it difficult to plant and harvest crops and sometimes are partly responsible for causing flash floods. Floods damaged both crops and caused displacement of people in Afar, Somali and SNNP regions pastoral areas. They also result in a higher incidence of some human and animal diseases. From these it could be learnt that cl imate change has had negative impact on 22 pastoral community and contributed to the vulnerable livel ihood pattern prevailing out there (CHF, 2010, UNDP, 2003, ARSCAD, 2010). 2.3. Empirical literature review 2.3.1. Major debates on pastoral development Vis climate change effect Overview Review of literature on the impact of climate change on pastora lism is characterized by an array of debate and contention among different writers. This contention can be categorized in ( to two. The first view is the view termed by some as pastoral pessimism (Devereux eta I 2008) and the second and the counter argument to the first is the view that sees positive future in pastoralism Vis climate change. The pessimist view is the view that sees pastoralism as a way of life and production system no longer viable and is already in crisis. This view takes the recurrent drought that hit the horn and the subsequent loss incurred as evidence that pastoralism is unsustainable (Derek etal, 2012: I), thereby justifying strategies that aim to replace mobile pastoralism with sedentary agricultural production. Countering this view are advocates of who lesale protection of pastoralist livelihoods (Devereux etal, 2008 : 1-2).This dichotomy view to pastoralism in face of climate change is presented as follows. 2.3.2 The tragedy of commons and pastoral pessimism Pastoral pessimism rooted in the famous "tragedy of the commons" developed by Hardin in 1968. For many years, much of the literature has depicted pastoral production as economically ilTational and nomadic livestock management systems as environmentally destructive. The old orthodoxy the dominant approach in terms of pastoral development (Stanford, f9-83), described herders as individuals without economic rationale using harmful land tenure systems (Gomes, 2006:4). The tragedy of commons theory, which influenced many policy-makers in Africa, assumes that: in pastoral areas, the herds are owned indi viduall y and the trekking routes belong to everybody and thus anybody; the pastoralists suffer from "the cattle complex" and irrationally accumulate herds for social and religious purposes rather than for economic purposes. This benefits the individuals and all the users assume the cost of over-grazing; and the pastoralists 23 are not able to create their own management institutions; the resource privatization IS necessary and should be imposed from the outside. Hardin's assumptions about free access land tenure regimes in pastoral areas were drawn from the "Game Theory" and most specifically from "The Prisoners' Dilemma". The idea in this theory is based on the assumption that " If two users in competition for the same common good have the choice between two strategies: conserve or degrade the resource, each of them will choice the latter assuming that if one of them conserves the resource, the other will cheat ( and use the caution of the other to maximize his profits. In these sense pastoralists communal use of resource destroys the scarce natural resource and leads to rangeland degradation. However this theory was criticized and rejected. This is partly because the assertions are irrelevant to the real situation in pastoral resource use (Victor A 2007:5, Devereaux, 2008: I) . Contrary to Hardin ' s assumption the communal ownership and management of natural resources are central to pastoralism because they ensure that herd owners can move freely as they search for water and pasture in different locations at different times of the year. The movement of pastoralists to areas of hi gher productivity has the additional benefit of alleviating stress on less productive land (Victor eta!., 2007 :5). According to critics, this confused understanding of pastoralism has had a far reaching consequence adding to the vulnerability of livelihood among pastoralists. It has legitimated the imposition of modern range management systems and even privatization of rangelands owned by pastoralist in many countries in east Africa. This paradigm has been seriously questioned and is now recognized as the wrong base from which to establ ish future development for pastoral areas (Iona, 2011 :30, Gomes, 2006:4). Pastoral pessimism is basically emerged in academics and development discourse recently. Yet it shares the wrong assumption and dou bt about viability of pastoralism with the "tragedy of commons" theory. Pessimists see pastoralism to be in crisis and the vulnerability of livelihood among pastorali sts in the horn of Africa is best defined by Malthusian style crisis. The argument made is that, there are too many people in pastoral area which, combined with a 24 declining (or not increasing) productivity of the natural resource base, means that not enough livestock can be kept to sustain a viable pastoral production system (Sandford, 2011 :5). This argument has been made by Stephen Sanford in "Too many people, too few livestock: the crisis affecting pastoralists in the Greater Horn of Africa" (Devereux etal., 2008:2). Some of the major elements of the arguments of Sandford and others of pastoral pessimists are in the area people: livestock ratios have declined in pastorali st households to a level below 3 TLUs/person, deemed to be a 'viable ' amount for sustainab le li vestock production, due to a ( combination of human population growth and declining rainfall. Real prices of livestock products have not increased (and are unlikely to do so, despite growing demand) to compensate for lower numbers per household. Pastoral economies remain poor, associated with limited circulation of cash, and so have little opportunity for growth through linkages to other income earning activities. Land for grazing and li vestock production conti nues to be removed for cropping, and that this, particularly if supported by irrigation, is probably a better bet for many pastoralists anyway. And finally with small and decreasing herd/flock sizes, sales remains focused on immediate cash needs rather than 'commercial' off take (Future Agricultures, 2008 :2). Based on pessimist view of pastoralism today there have been emerging argument that call for Sedentarization of pastorali sts. This group puts their argument for the advantage of settled agricultural production against pastoral production of li vestock based on mobility (Elliot etal., 20 II :3-4). 2.3.3 Positive view of pastoralism Pastoral positivism is also a recent view developed as a response to the pess imist counterpart. This view is growing and is based on many assumptions and facts about pastoralism. It is based on the argument that pastoralism is the dominant production system in the arid and semi arid lands and pastoralists use natural resources in dry land sustainably where other land-use systems cannot thrive. Pastoralism is uniquely well adapted to dry land environments. As an economic and social system, it operates effectively in low and highly variable rainfall conditions .Key elements of the production system are access to water and pasture and the 25 I ADOb !\ ll.... aA UNfVE Il SI1' Y AKAKI CAMPUS LLBHARY wise management of these scarce resources (ODI, 2009). This production depends on rational mobility to make use of natural resources, water and fodder, the availability of which varies so widely in time and space. Mobility enables pastoralist take advantage of the scattered rainfall in a way that no other production system does. Thus mobility is a key to pastoral risk management in drought (little 2010:8, IIRR, 2003:6). Moreover mobile, as compared to sedentary, forms of land use is less ri sky as climate variability and the frequency of extreme weather events increase (Africa Union, 2012:6, Kate Wellard Dyer 2012:1 , Oxfam, 2008: 2). ( In relation to these little (2010:4) indicated that with -global climate change becoming real , mobility will become more important. Some other benefits of mobility are: firstly it helps the ecology of the area by not keeping animals too long in one location; secondly it makes good use of available rangeland resources ; and thirdly it allows herds to adapt to different rainfall patterns across territories; As previously mentioned the positive view of pastoralism is emerged partly as a response to the pessimist view. But it is also resulted from the findings of various studies that show positive prospect of pastoralism in situation of deteriorating global climatic condition. In relation to this Isobel (2007) mentions that Since the 1990s, economic studies of pastoral production have shown it to be highly adaptable within time and space, and between two and ten times more productive than commercial ranching under the same conditions. More imp0l1antly pastoralism in Africa evolved in response to long-term climate variability thus pastoralism is by its very nature a form of adaptation to climate change, which has been demonstrated over MillerU1ia (Brooks,-2006, Isobel, 2007:1-4Tln other words for 7,000 years pastoralism has flouri shed in the dry lands because it is a rational, adaptable, tried and tested production system uniquely suited to them (ODJ, 2009: V).According to Moritz (2012) pastoralism remains a viable production system for households and communities in the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya and Ethiopia ( Moritz,20 12: I). Those who made counter argument against pessimist view contend that despite some truth in all of their arguments, pastoralist pessimism needs to be tempered by a number of under recognized facts (Devereux eta!. 2007 : 1-2). First, pastoralism is undoubtedly a sector of 26 comparative advantage in the semiarid lowland regions of the Horn. These regions are characterized by relative land abundance but also by rainfall patterns that vary markedly across both time and space. Mobile livestock herds make efficient and risk-minimizing use of such an environment. Numerous studies have shown that mobility and trade are key to both wealth accumulation and drought management for pastoralists (ILRI 2010; Devereux 2006; Little et al. 20 lOa, 201 Ob, 20 I Oc), and that mobile pastorali sts appear to be significantly better off than ex-pastoral ist or sedentary farmers in the same regions (especially farmers without irrigation).This has been also supported by Little (2008:20) findings of study on poverty in ( pastoral areas of Ethiopia. His findin g suggest, encouraging herders to settle- often using food aid and education and health services as incentives - aggravate problems of local overgrazing and resource conflict, without generating many tangible gains. The proponents of pastoralism admit the fact that climate will seriously aggravate the impacts of current challenges in the dry lands. But they support pastoralism because among other reasons, for them of all the natural resource-based land uses in the dry lands, pastoralism functions better within the context of wide rainfall variability and unpredictability. It therefore presents a more logical adaptation route than livelihood activities and land uses which do not have the advantage of mobility. According to OD! 2009, IIRR 2003, different land uses coexist in the dry lands, but pastorali sm is more resilient against climatic variability and change than others. For proponents one source of pessimism of pastoralism emanates from wrong understand of raison d'etre of mobility in pastoralism. Contrary to pessimi sts assumption today it is recognized by many writers and actors working on pastoral concerns that mobility in pastoralism is made with rational decision with a bigger purpose (Devereux, 2006, OCHA, 2005, little, 20 10, AU, 2010:6 UNDP, 2007/8). Most pastoralists move between seasonal grazing areas, taking strategic advantage of different forage and water sources as they become available. Contrary to what is portrayed to be very few pastorali sts are the wandering nomads. Mobility in pastoralism is the reason behind pastoral sustainability and productivity. As demonstrated by numerous research studies pastorali sts are experts at maximizing the use of 27 (" among sedentary pastoralists who may no longer be directly involved in pastoral production or those who are now exiting the system or probably will in the next few years(Ibid). Contrary to what is presumed by many of those see pastoralism negatively, poverty is perceived as less prevalent amongst those who are able to be physically remote from urban areas and or those who are more mobile. Thi s remoteness of a pastoral household from urban areas demonstrates that the household has the capacities to increase herd size, live off animal products and practice mobile pastoralism. In other words it implies that the food self sufficiency and livelihood security of this particular group. For those living a more sedentary life on the edges of small towns with few cOlmections to the pastoralist system, on the other hand, poverty and livelihood insecurity is most likely. They can no longer function as pastoralists and have, in effect, become non-competent and, to a large extent, invisible as pastoralists. For the majority this was not viewed as a matter of choice but as a painful exit from welfare in the mobile pastoralism (Derek etal, 2012:3, Mary, 2010:31 , Devereux 2006, and Little 2010). The following quote from pastoralist women living on the edge of Gawane tawn in Afar region reveals this assertion: Before, we lived a good life, now there is no life. It 's all poverty! 1 had many animals, milk, butter, but now there are no animals, no grass, no milk and no life. That's why it's different. If 1 had my animals 1 wouldn't come to town. When they died 1 had nothing left there. No husband, no animals, no life. 1j ust came f or my own survival. While this finding would appear to contradict mainstream understanding of livelihood security, which equates settlement and urbanization with improved livelihoods it strongly echoes data from recent qualitative and quantitative research (Devereux 2006, Little et al. 2008). These studies point to a nuanced model of livelihood security that associates mobile pastoralism with greater wealth, better nutrition and less vulnerability (Mary, 20 I 0:31). By the same token proponents of pastoralism emphasis the sustainabiJity of pastoralism in dry land areas of Ethiopia and the horn compared to any other way of exploiting resources in the 29 area and managing the ecology and contributing greatly to the national economic growth and development. In addition as response to the pessimists the proponents of pastoralism go further and argue that pastoral livestock production is more productive than irrigation schemes that produce cotton and sugar. In this relation a study conducted by Behnke etal 2013 entitled "Counting the Cost", compared the economic returns derived from pastoralism versus large-scale irrigated cotton or sugar plantations in the Awash valley of north-eastern Ethiopia. In this work Belmke etal, (2013) argued that mobile pastoral production is more productive and sustainable investment option compared to cultivation of cash crops of cotton or sugar cane .The analysis supports the following main conclusions. First in the Awash valley, pastoral livestock husbandry is more profitable than cotton farming. While private cotton cultivation may occasionally achieve rough productive parity with pastoralism, state cotton farms lost money for decades and their mi smanagement has led to soil Stalinization, water logging, lost soil productivity and weed infestation. And second sugar cane cultivation presents much the same picture. On the favorabl y situated plantation examined in the study, cane farming equaled the retums to livestock in one of four years, and fell short in three of four years. Despite high levels of government investment and the expropriation of local communities' land, there is no evidence of consistently higher economic returns per hectare to sugar cane rather than pastoralism (Belu1ke etal, 2013 :33). In fact similar argument has been made by Little (2010) where he argue that pastoralism is advantageous than irrigation schemes in low land areas. The economic viability of the irrigation schemes was viewed as uncertain. There was a great deal of skepticism that these would turn out to be viable-commercial enterprises. Generally the sense was that the impetus behind this effort was not economic but motivated by the government's concern with encouraging pastoralists to sedentarize and abandon mobile pastoralism. One participant noted that in the riverine areas -if a comparison is made between pastoral and irrigated farming production, the pastoral production will do better; the sectors are unmatched. Irrigation farming needs huge investment such as modern equipment and available water resources throughout the year. Thi s makes cash crop production costly business compared to livestock production in the same area and under the same scarcity context (Little eta!' 2010:6). 30 Another work related to the proponents of pastorali sm important to mention is the repoI1s prepared under the EC HO- funded proj ect on ' Reducing the vulnerabi lity of pastoral communities through poli cy and practice change in the Horn and East Africa' by Nassef etal, (2009).The report presents evidence-based research findings about opportunities and challenges of pastoralism in the horn of Africa. In its detail di scussion the report makes tlu·ee arguments that support the vita lity of pastorali sm to the state and society's socio- econom ic and environmental sustainability and development. These are briefl y sum marized in to three main arguments for pastoralism profitable business in dry lands. ( Argument I: despite chronic under-investment, the dry lands make a significant contribution to national economies. Under this argument the economic impoliance and contribution of pastorali sm is detailed. From this the sectors contribution to livestock development in terms of the share of pastoralism to nation's income generation fro m livestock trading is emphasized to be vital. For instance 11 million of the 35 million cattle in Ethiopia are kept by pastoralists in the dry lands. Of Ethiopia's 42million sheep and goats, 18million are kept by pastoralists. Pastoralism contributes signi ficantly to national economies. Twenty million people are estimated to have pastoralist livelihoods in the Horn and East Africa region (AU, 20 I 0). The li vestock sector represents 20% to 25% of agricultural GDP across Africa (Ruger,200 ! :!! , African Union, 20 12: 10). Significant portions of African livestock are found in pastoral areas (e.g. 70% in Kenya) . Thi s indicates that pastoralism provides a considerable amount of the red meat, milk and other livestock products in the region, as well as employing millions of people. Pastoralism is also a source of huge wild resource to many countries in east Africa. Tourism is an impOliant sector contributing a lot to the national GDP where the national parks and other protected areas fall predominantly within the dry lands. Tourism brings in annual returns of $900m to $ 1.2 billion to Tanzania's economy, represents 13% of Kenya' s GDP, and over 9% for Uganda. The dry lands as environmental resource: Dry lands ecosystems are valuable and Ulllque (Wassie etal 2008:3). They are able to maintain so il ferti lity, hold water and maintain water 31 and air quality, control erosion, protect against storms and landslides, and also sequester carbon. These complex systems harbor key natural resources, including species adapted to dry land conditions. The degradation and/or loss of these resources would reduce climate adaptation and resilience options. Therefore pastoralism should be preserved and protected not abandoned or replaced by other livelihood hardly compatible to the dry land ecology. Carbon sequestration IS an emerg1l1g opportunity 111 the dry lands. Grasslands store approximately 34% of the global stock of C02 - a service worth $7 per hectare. African (). grasslands extend to 13m km2 and have vast carbon sequestration potential. This potential creates huge opportunity for investment in the wider range lands and generate huge amount of resource from carbon sequestration revenues. Capital investment in dry lands in countries such as Argentina, Mexico and Israel reflects the value of these areas and shows that dry lands need not be poor. It has also been shown that public investment in rain-fed dry1and regions in India and China yield higher rates of return than in irrigated and more humid regions. Argument 2: pastoralists use drylands rationally to fulfill their needs, the environment's needs and to contribute to the needs of nations. Pastoralism is a rational, adaptable, tried and tested production system uniquely suited to the dry lands. Pastoralism developed autonomously across the world's drylands from some 7,000 years ago (Brooks, 2006:7). Pastoralism contributes significantly to the health of dryland ecosystems. Dryland ecosystem health is better where mobile pastoralism continues to be practiced effectively. Healthy ecosystems encourage the presence of the wildlife upon which the tourism industry is based. Contrary to the belief that pastoralism causes overgrazing there- is liftleeviaence that aryland pastures ar-e generally over-stocked or overgrazed. In fact, much more pasture degradation is evident in areas around permanent settlements than in open rangelands where mobile pastoralists seasonally move their herds to allow pastures to regenerate (ODI, 2009). Argument 3: pastorali st livestock-keeping has unique adaptive potential to climate change. ,. The climate is changing of all the natural resource-based land uses in the drylands, pastoralism functions better within the context of wide rainfall variability and unpredictability. Therefore, it presents a more logical adaptation route as compared to land 32 <" Chapter Three: Research Methods 3.1. General Profile of the Afar Regional State 3.1.1 Biophysical features Geographically, the Afar Regional state is located in the northeastern part of Ethiopia. The total geographical area of the region is about 270,000 kn12 (eSA, 2008). It is geographically located between 39034' and 42028' East Longitude and 8049'and 1403 0'No11h Latitude. The region shares common international boundaries with the State of Eritrea in the north-east and Djibouti ,. in the east, as well as regional boundaries with the Regional States of Tigray in the n011h-west, Amhara in the south-west, Oromia in the south and Somali in the south-east. Administratively, the Afar National Regional State consists of 5 administrative zones (sub-regions), 32 weredas (administrative districts), 28 towns, and 401 rural and urban Kebele. 3.1.2 General Climate Infol'mation Afar is characterized by an arid and semi-arid climate with low and erratic rainfall. Rainfall is bimodal throughout the region with a mean annual rainfall below 500 mm in the semi-arid western escarpments decreasing to 150 mm in the arid zones to the east. Afar is increasingly drought prone. The region receives three rainy seasons. The main rain, Karma accounts for 60% of annual rainfall and occurs from mid June to mid- September. This is followned by rainy showers in mid-December called dadaa and a minor rainy season during March - April called Sugum. Disruptions on the performance of any rainy season will impact on the availability of pasture and water as well as the overall food security situation of the pastoral and agro-pastoral communities (PARDB, 2007, Afar DPSIP first draft) .. 3.1.3 Livelihoods of Afar Pastoralists About 90% of the regional populations in Afar base their livelihood on livestock rearing with limited irrigation agriculture along the river basins and low-lying riverine areas. The Afar keep multiple species and mUlti-purpose stock. They rear multiple species including cattle, camels, , goats, sheep and donkeys (Ayele, 1986; Ali , 1996; Getachew, 2001). The proportion of the different species varies with the vegetation cover of the region. In parts of the region, in the escarpment and around the perennial rivers where the grazing reso urce is relatively good, cattle 37 f. pastoralism is also used by the community seasonally especially during dry season. The communities are exposed to multiple stresses including drought and its various disrupting effects. 3.2. Research Design The study of the impact of climate change on the livelihoods of local populations is increasingly forwarded as an urgent research need (Morton 2007; Smit & Pilifosova 2003). A multitude of approaches and methodologies are used for this purpose. Among this the Vulnerability capacity assessment and sustainable livelihood approach are used as part of this thesis. The vulnerabi lity and capacity assessment approach is a combination of the vulnerability assessment and sustainable livelihoods approaches (SLA). yeAs are carried out applying a gender perspective and paying attention to marginalized social groups (M; d 6'\ VY\ MJ 2011: 1). The objective of the VeA approach is to identify not only the key vu lnerabilities of communities and the underlying causes of these vulnerabil ities, but also the community's inherent livelihood assets and capacities, and then to suggest ways to strengthen these assets and capacities to enhance the community's resilience. yeAs are mainly conducted at the community level, focusing on the experiences and perceptions of stakeholders ti'OI11 different pastoral communities. The general objective of a VeA is to improve understand ing of how environmental and socioeconomic changes affect the li veli hoods of rural, natural resource dependent women and men living in arid and sem i arid environments, what shapes their vulnerabilities, and what assets they have for coping with and adapting to environmental and socioeconomic changes. The main goals of a VeA are to identify the most vulnerable social groups and the underlying causes of their vulnerability, as well as to assess community-based coping and adaptation mechani sms to the past and current impacts of change in order to understand the feas ibility of future adaptation initiatives and to formulate recommendations (for planners and policymakers) to improve individual and collective assets, with the aim of enhancing the adaptive capacity and resilience of vulnerable pastoral in their responses to climatic change ( :r 13 I 40 D) 2011:3) .. Methodological triangulati on; obtaining data from different so urces, such as observations, documentations and interviews, helps to harnesses diverse ideas about the same issue and assist in cross-checking the results, and consequent ly helps to increase the validity, reliability of the findings and eases data analysis (Bryman 2008 ; A. Rialp & J. Rialp 2006). This study obtains data from primary sources (field observation, household, government officials and local administrative interview). ------ E"ltr , ~' :; -"~ I, '$) ;.->' w".n''1 A I'.: ~ .:J • 1) 0 $$,a .J; o lOOkm Fig 2: Map of the study area. 3.3. Method of data collection Mainly qualitative methods are suggested for collecting and analyzi ng data in community-based YeAs . Accordingly Qualitative data co llection tool is applied. These are Participatory rural appraisal (PRA) tools of transect walk and observation together with focus group di scussion (FGD), and interviews based on semi-structured questions. The primary data was collected from March -April 201 4. Targeted data sources participated in FGD and key infonnants for KII (Key Informant Interviews) were purposively selected . The sample size was determined to a large extent by time and resource limitation hence purposive sampling method was used. 3 focus 41 group discussions covering issues of communities perception of changes, coping and adaptation mechanisms, effect of the change on social aspects, resource, access, control and activities profile of the target population was made. The average number of respondents at each of the FGD is 8.This provided in-depth information regarding the perception of each group regarding a particular theme. Interviewing key informants and local residents in Awash Fentale wereda was the other impOliant investigation technique applied during the field study, and findings from informant interviews carried out with local people in Kebele in Awash wereda constitute the bearing data and have been the main engine behind the development of this thesis. For all interviews an interview guide was developed, yet all kept a semi structured format. All interviews, both with key informants and locals, aimed at having a conversational style and encouraging interviewees to participate, as all interviews on top of seeking to cover a range of basic themes/questions as outlined in the interview guides, had a basic exploratory objective, aiming at learning more about the context at large . • Fig: 3. women interviewee in Awash Fig: 4. young pastoralist interviewee in Awash 15 key informant interviews were carried out with a number of stakeholders and key informants, such as government officials and nongovernmental organizations working in the area, both before, during and after fieldwork in the case study area. Some interviews covered topics 42 before that day there was small precipitation in Awash and the area has become cool thereof. But the rain did not continue. This is how it is going, he continued saying "The rain may not shower today or tomorrow. But it must. Otherwi se it will create problem on us". The grass needs some more days to grow which is desperately needed in this time to feed cattle" (interview in Awash). With the aim of comparing the perception of the community with the record and statistics by metrology agency a comparison on the community's assertion of the decreasing trend in the occurrence of Sugum rain was made. Accordingly the graph of standard rainfall anomalies during Sugum season in the area reveal the high level of deterioration in the seasons rainfall especially since the year 1990-201 O.The following data illustrates thi s clearly. Graph 1: Trends of Sugum rainfall ( 1970-2010) .s'ugu!'n J'ainf'all .,. . ~ 3 .00 i 2 . 00 .E! 1. 00 ~ j, " ~ " 0 . 00 -1 00 -g ~ -2 .00 0~f' . ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ . ~ ~ ~ ~ .~ _ • ~ 6 ~ _____ ~ ,'e;:) I' Rainfall (1ll1ll) - - T retlclline (L i.n ~ar) Source: Tewodros (2011) As can be seen from the graph the overall trend in Sugum ram distribution in the area ic characterized by high level of anomaly. The amount of rain recorded from the year 1990 to 2010 especially reveals that it has dramatically decreased. The years 1992, 1998, 2000,2002,2006,2008 cover a period in which there is no Sugum rain at all. Out of the 10 record years six of them are with no Sugum rain the remaining recorded very minimum amount. Thus as in the questions the year emphasized was the last 10 to 20 years the communities perception to the change is compatible with scientific record. 48 ,. Box l.Interview on the effect of climate change on rain season "In the last 20 years the situation is that there is a time when no Karma or Sugum rain. This has had a devastating impact on the livestock and the farm alike. Livestock and human breeding are affected by the change n. (Interview in AloIa kebele) The rainy season and livestock condition is in different scenario. Cattle; goats and camels are all f' deteriorating and decreasing in number. The change in climate is causing destruction on our livestock property. This is the curse of God. And we are surprised and watching this amazing change occurring around us. The effect of the change on our livelihood is much. We are in the middle of the problem caused by climate change suffering in one of worst manner. We do not know whom we may appeal for and inform our situation. May God forgive us for what we talk about of our problem and desperate condition caused by the change. (Interview with a woman 45 in Awash Hawas kebele) Source: Own fie ld rep0l1, 20 14 Table: 4 Obse"ved changes in the rainfall condition in last 20 years as remembered by people. Change in Rainfall Rain season variability Complete Failure of some seasons Decrease in Amount of rainfall in all seasons Early rainfall in all seasons Delay of rainfall in some seasons Source: Own field report, 2014 Women No Percent 9 100 Response !Yes /No Yes Yes Yes 8 7 Yes Yes 3 6 Men Total Percent Percent No 80 70 15 12 13 100 80 86 100 80 73 30 60 5 8 33 53,2 31.55 58 The table is result of focus group discussion which consist three groups which totally constituted 24 people, The total number of women in the group is 9. Observation of the table result shows that all 100% of the respondents both men and women believe that there is variability in the season of the rain nowadays compared to it was known 49 ,' before 20 years. And most 80% of all respondents also perceived the condition of complete failure in rain seasons in their area. In this relation the community has expressed that in the area there was six rainy seasons see the summery in table 3 above however due to the change most of these seasons have completely failed and the remaining kerma and Sugum rain seasons become highly variable see table 3 and graph I above. Graph 2, trends of total annual rainfall .. G" aJl h 1; T !"end s o f IOlal alultlHI t"IIillfl\ll ( 1990 -"201 0 ) _ Ralnfu U ( null) Source:Tewodros ( 2011) Its therefore discernible from the above reports and testimonies that the change in climate is a matter of reality for most of the informants contacted as part of this study and they have no doubt about it. Yet as to the question of why is this variation and loss of rainy season, there is variation in opinion, which is shaped by people ' s belief, level of understanding and experience towards the issue. Accordingly some 6.3% associate it with change in time, others 8.5 % with climate change caused by industrialization damaging the ecosystem and the other majority 85% associate it with the curse of Allah (God). The following table reveals this variation in factors behind climate change as perceived by the community. 50 I -ADD!.' , . " "A~ VN /VEHSITY AoKAKi CAMl'US LIBRARY Graph 3: Trends of average max temperature e in the area in last 20 years Average maximum £empera£ure 3 00 I§ " ~ I . 00 l§ ~ ~ . !:': § le ::: :=: 0 "F- ~ ~ ;;; 0 00 j 00 '" '" .B~ '" ;;; '" 0; . o I~"- y-OR ,03='x-O -OS J .:. ..... 0 1- 1.-.••--1. ~ __-II ::! 00 .~ ~ 00 - -- Tt'~ ndlU:' e (Li:ne nr) Source: Tewodros (20 II). 4.2 Major imacts of climate change in Awash 4.2.1 Drought Drought has been recorded in Afar region since 1988 and was recurring within an average of 10 years interval. However, during the past decade drought is occuning almost every year and the areas and population affected is increas ing from year to year. The number of drought affected population in Afar region from 1999-2005 increased from 100,000 people in 1999 to 800,000 in 2005 (Oxfam 2005: 18). Climate change is the major cause of drought that case death of livestock and erosion of Afaris asset base due to repeated incidence of drought. Many of the respondents took part in focus group discussion, and interviews confirmed that they have been personally affected by drought. They said that the last 10 years are call ed years of di saster (Amni).The latest drought event known and remembered are Gaala sele ,Uma sale and Lasale. 52 " Drought is mass killer of livestock in pastoral areas. Fig:6.Drought related death of livestock source www.cIimate change pictures Laasale is a drought that destroyed cattle and left camels and goats untouched which occurred in year 2007. During Lasale for example said an interviewee "I remember a situation that a man with 50 cattle left with only four" . He continues and adds that this drought that occurred in the year 1995 in Awash area destroyed cattle. Umasale drought destroyed and affected all kind livestock. Gaata sete is a drought in which 'camels are fini shed in 20 Io. Since then the number of cattle owned per-capita decreased. 4.2.2 Livestock and human disease The community mentioned the emergency of different livestock di seases some rarely known many unknown to the people in the area. According to many there was a time when camels diseases that starts affecting the camel from its head. Shakes it and nodes its head then the camel fell down unconscious. Then blood from its mouth marks its death. This new disease killed a lot of camels. And it was difficult to be recognized by professionals from agriculture office and this was occurred in the year 1995 E.e. according to 100 percent of respondents both men and women there has been increased incidence of livestock and human disease in the last 20 years (Own field report, 2014). 53 ( Fig:8 Afar women keeping shoats Source http://www.syivainsavoiainen.com/en/photo/ies-Afar 4-3_1 Effect on women work load In literatures written on the effect of climate change resulting in change in livelihoods of rural communities emphasized that as livelihood strategies shift, daily tasks and workloads also shift. Tasks originally delineated according to gender shift, confusing gender roles in communities throughout the world. Rural women typically experience an increase in workload as climate change impacts livelihood strategies (Agarwal, 2000). Climate change has caused sh0l1age in accessing of resources on which livestock survival depend. The lack of water and depletion of some grass species and herbs of livestock and camel implied mobility of the house hold in search of this to remote places. This implies in one hand women to build the house in the new settlement area. To do thi s they need to search for the required building materials which in most case in these days are hardly available. If thi s materials are not obtained then it means women become homeless. Moreover with climate change and lack of rain the distance covered for getting water has increased. The more the house hold become away from temporary settlement area the responsibility of feeding children at home will by default vested on their mother. Women also keep goats and sheep as well as the responsibility of fetching water is vested on women this created more burden on women. The following is interview given by a women in Awash as this related to the effect of climate change on the house work. 58 "To get water for household consumption I wake lip early in the morning at 6 am and I carry 25 liters of jen'can of water in my back and as I reach home it is 6 pm " (Interview in AloIa Kebele in Awash ) Moreover, due to shortage of rain fall and shortage of livestock feeding a lot of problems are occurring, Lack of rain created stress on resources. Livestock become weak and seek.yrt there is problem in access to veterinary services as well as supplementary feed for livestock. In many of such conditions women become responsible to feed and treat sick livestock. To solve problem of the forage required and feed cattle, they engage in cutting grass from risky areas such as parks and carrying it to home. According to some of informants in previous times such problems have been solved by the government which used to provide support by transporting weak cattle to home and supplying with forages locally called frushka. The problem is still occurring and today cattle are dying due to shortage of feed and the government has yet stooped helping. So to feel this gap women are suffering a lot (interview in A wash ). Fig: 9 Afar women in Cut and carry feed from national parks, Source: Rural Development ~" News (2/2010:35) . 59 Fig: 10 Afar cattle grazing in plateau areas Among the Afaris the pasture is divided in to two. This division is of strategic importance and is of course coping mechanism. This division is called the Alta and Kalow. The Alta division is a grazing area usually mountainous and plateaus where the cattle are taken to during rainy season (see the above picture). At rainy season there will be good grass and shrubs for cattle and goat consumption. And there will be small water deposit of various rocks and stony forms called Hoboyle which wi ll be used for both cattle and human consumption. And in this area and during the rainy time surplus milk will be obtained so everybody rush to it. Mention should also be made that this type of land form usuall y occupied by the Issa tribe. Still the Afaris go there to use advantage of the grass and water (Detona and Miftah 20l4).So the pattern of resource and use in the area has changed due to climate change related reasons. The other important question raised in the resource use and control profi le relates to whether there are any new resources that have appeared and that pastorali st have started to use (e.g., plants, animal s, material s for energy production, and so forth)? Which ones? For what purposes does the conununity use them? And why did they start using these new resources? The answer is yes. There have 64 emerged new plant resource called Prosopis weed tree recently appeared in to the area and people are using it the how and why questions will be answered in the following part. 4.4.2 Effect of Prosopis on resources access and control Prosopis (hereafter referred to as Prosopis) is a multipurpose dry land tree or shrub native to South America, Central America and the Caribbean (Pasiecznik et ai., 2001, Farm Africa 2008:7). It is an Exotic plant species which have been purposely and/or accidentally introduced throughout the world due to their economic, environmental or aesthetic values. During its introduction from its natives, South America, Central America and the Caribbean, the indigenous knowledge of its management rarely followed and Prosopis remained under-utilized and unmanaged .consequently and contrary to expected benefits of its plantation Prosopis has caused a lot of damages on livelihoods and environments across a wide range of agro-ecologies. Some of these are encroachment of rangelands by invasive species, reduction of crop yield, genetic erosion of biodiversity, disruption of water flow, poisoning of livestock, formation of impenetrable thickets, etc (Farm Africa,2008). According to the report of Farm Africa Prosopis is affecting the biodiversity and socio-economic environment of invaded areas in Afar region. It takes over pasture lands and irrigable areas; people and livestock suffer from mechanical inj uries by sharp and poisonous Prosopis thorns; indigenous trees and pasture species are lost due to the invasion; access roads are blocked; challenge from predators increases; umestricted livestock feeding on pods poses health problems; agro pastoralists spend large amounts of money to clear Prosopis from their farmlands; and malaria cases increased due to the favorable microclimate created due to the invasion (Farm Afric'll2008:8). 4.5 Tt'aditional environment preservation and management institution Pastoralists survival in the dry land areas of Africa in general and in the horn of Africa in particular attributed to various mechanisms of resource utilization embedded in the pastoral mode of production. One of the main reason cited most is the system of managing the scarcely distributed resources in the dry land areas. This systematic utilization of scarce reso urces are 65 ) I. realized through different resource use and conflict resolution mechanisms intrinsic to the pastoralism which functions on cOl1Ullunal use of scarce resources. Without the presence of such institutions in the pastoral production the resource could have been vanished and the community hardly able to sustain. Almost in variably most of the pastoral communities in Africa has thi s institutions that help wisely use scarce resources .In addition to this the pastoral comm unities also has a conservation ethos that are developed over time . This is the main reason why in Eastern and horn of Africa countries of Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda that most of the parks as well as wild lives of tourist attraction located in pastorally resided area. Fo r instance ( among the Borenas of Ethiopia eating ch icken meat or egg was seen as something taboo or not appreciated because the people see the chicken as bird which is wild life. The same eth ics used to work for Rendile and Saburn pastoralist peoples of Kenya. By the same token the Afaris have many conservation ethics included in their traditions and local institutions. From this, the importance of the Erena tradition of conserving the environment and managing scarce resource cou ld be mentioned. 4.5.1Erena: Afaris environmental protection and natural resource management system. Among the Afaris there is a traditional institutional arrangement within the conmmnity for the management of- reSOlU'ces called Erena. It is known locally to be the law of the enviromllent. It is also referred as a low and a lawmaki ng body. It has its own executive conmlittee called , Medabena. The president of Erena is known as Mekabentu. It has al so information wing or minister entitled father of Erena The father of Erena usually collects info rmation about those who cut trees or kill wild animals. When he obtains such information he makes announcement (Deero) that someone cut tree. Then he submits the case to the Medabena. And the president (Mekabentu) who chairs Medabena hearing the case finally decides the type of punishment to be taken against the one who breached the law and caused harm on the environment. The function of Erena is many to mention some. First Erena is used to protect the ri ght of wild lives particularly those of ind igenous one. For instance according to Afaris tradition a person who killed a wild life called Bicida and Waydedo will be punished through Erena. The punishment first of all wi ll usually be announced so that everybody hears it and then the case will be submi tted to the counci l who decides on the case. By the sanle token Erena is used to 66 '4.- destruction. It is the youth that smuggle charcoal producers in to the forest for fear of condemnation from elders and communi ty leaders. It is the youth who illegally levy tax on buyers and suppliers and the elders are not involved at all. On the other hand others doubt the validity of this assertion and comment that the young charcoal producers has created link or patron client relations with the elders, and the elders get some rent, and that is why they gave tacit recognition to such wrong action destroying indi genous trees in day light. This is probable today because the elders themselves are in need of resource and they are victims of loss of their productive asset to the invasive weed that made zone three of Afar region under its control. This key informant seems to be shocked by what he sees or learnt in his study. He said "thi s is an amazing sorrow story untold going on in our area. The sto ry is long and a volume of books can be written on" . Some of the following are amazing things to Afar elders in zone three as it amazes elites and academicians. How co me Prosopis luliflora invaded these area, how Afaris lost all their land to the weed, how sudden it turned out that the wealthy pastorals around Awash found to be the most vul nerable. According to thi s key informant everybody in this area has already lost its asset base. The elders and the youth's asset base have seriously destroyed as they lost their land hence livestock to Prosopis Juliflora .The quality and quantity of milk is decreasing. Number of cattle and camels owed by per capita is deteriorating. Poverty is becoming rampant. The number of people that eat only once a day is increasing in shocking malUler and the number of people that meet three times a day meal is becoming very few. Consequently today what matters most for most people in the area is getting money by any means. So the simplest way of ensuring this is engagement in charcoal business. He furth er said "what happening in thi s area today is exactly the tragedy of commons" developed by Hardin in 1988. Hardin 's assumptions about free access land tenure regimes in pastoral areas were drawn from the "Game Theory" and most specificall y from "The Prisoners' Dilemma". The C idea in this theory as mentioned previously in the literature review, is based on the assumption that "If two users in competition for the same common good have the choice between two strategies: conserve or degrade the resource, each of them will choice the latter assuming that if 69 grass, shrubs and waters in oasis on which Afaris livel ihood well being is dependent. And it is mentioned in literature review part that livelihoods sustainability has to do with a multi faceted aspects and level s of development a community has. This includes the level of socio economic and technological development of a community. And this in turn is fundamental in shaping the stage and standard oflivel ihood asset ofa given community. Livelihood assets are the main factors that affect people's livelihoods Sll1ce they are determinants of a community' s capacity to adapt to climate and socioeconomic change. In this sense the level of socio economic development among the Afar pastoralist in Awash in terms of the accessibility to human and fiscal intj'astructure, the fragileness or potency of the source of employment and income and sustenance are of great importance in determining the communities' sustenance in one hand and bouncing capacity in face of disaster on the other. As mentioned in the sustainable livelihood framework A livelihood is sustainable when it can cope with and recover from stresses and shocks and maintain or enhance its capabilities and assets both now and in the future while not undermining the natural resource base (DFID 199: I). In light of this conceptualization, the poor level of socio economic development and the multifaceted limitations the pastoral areas have in terms of access to physical and human infrastructures the capacity of the pastoral community to bounce back stressors and cope hazards would therefore be very weak. This is especially true in light of the changing conditions in the magnitude and types of the stressors the society facing Vis climate change causing increased incidence of drought in the area. 4.7.1 Change in household consumption and income Percentage of household 's source of income and consumption from livestock and livestock products is one important aspect in defining li velihood among the pastoralists (IIRR, 2003, Roger, 2009). Livelihood among the Afar pastoralists depends on the number and types of livestock the household has in its di sposal. For instance the owners of camels drink from the milk of camel and the cattle owner drinks milk of his cow in all of his daily meal. Afaris use different byproducts of the milk like butter, yoghurt and the like. So these were source of diet for the Afar household in previous times. 71 o Climate change and food security are intimately linked. Climate change affects the general patterns of food security and particular issues of daily and monthly or yearly household 's food consumption scenario. This includes short-term impacts of increased climate variability, and long-term impacts such as sh ifts in precipitation and temperature patterns, jeopardize the community' s asset base productivity (FAO, 2010: 1).ln the same logic since the last 10 to 20 years in Awash areas of Afar region the climatic conditions has been changing. The change has been manifested by variation in patterns of rain fall and repeated incidence of drought events. According to many due to depletion in the productivity of cattle and camel milk product l components of household food stuff has changed. Nowadays pastoralists use products of cereals like wheat, maize and teff etc together with milk in their daily food. On the aspect of source of income too pastoralist are no more depend on income obtained from selling livestock and its byproducts alone to sustain their life. Rather they are engaged in other activities including charcoal making, farming, trade and wage labour and other non farm non pastoral activities. The change in climate and the subsequent erosion of productive asset of the pastoralists has therefore resulted in changing the old way of doing things. Many of the informants expressed concerns over changes in the climate, which had generally triggered a feeling of not being able to solely rely on livestock and the practical need for diversification of means of living through involvement in other income generating activities including on farm activities. A woman in Aloia Kebele mentioned that she would prefer to keep a small herd size and complement the household's livelihood with engaging on farm activities. To this end she mentioned that she have already stared farming in her compound area and recently she planted tomato and maize and she hopes with God bless this will be profitable. She says that: "If 1 am provided with the capacity and capital 1 prefer farming to pastoralism. In my compound area we are trying farming. We engage in tomato, maize and tefJ production. We are /lying farming, given bless of God we need 10 work on agriculture. It has good result. Both livestock andfarming are good so keeping both together is the best. (Interview with a women in AloIa kebele in A wash ) 72 o 2010:6 UNDP, 2007/8). Contrary to what is portrayed to be Very few pastoralists are the wandering nomads. Mobility in pastoralism is the reason behind pastoral sustainability and productivity. "Mobility provides the best strategy to manage low net productivity, unpredictability and risk on arid and semi-arid lands. Seasonal movements are essential for pastoralists to tackle marked spatial and temporal variations in livestock grazing resources while enabling pasture restoration at certain times of the year" (Nori etal, 2008:8). The findings of this study is in compliance with these assertions that mobility is a rational L decision by which pastoralist preserve the environment, increase productivity and ensure the sustainability of the wider ecology. For example in case of Afar community mobility, as a rational action is decided by consensus and mutual consultation of commnnity leaders. That among the Afar pastoralist there is always a leading elder that directs and manages mobility and other operation activities on the daily basis. For example on each new sunshine on start before discharging the livestock to the field usually this elderly man collects surveillance repOtts from those in the field. Mostly the content of such surveillance report includes whether the "Alien" raider groups have been seen around and whether there is any threat that may harm the livestock well being at that particular day. According to a key informant who also conducted his study in this area observed the following situation relates to the strategy used in mobility among Afar: I have observed that on my stay with the pastoralist on the field on one of the days a report came to the elderly man that in the currently grazing direction the Issa tribes reported to have been prepared to raid the cattle of their Afari counter part. Based on this Intel the elderly man changed the direction of the grazing 10 the opposite of what was been on those days. Amazed I'm is in that I saw some of the cattle refusing to go to the new direction it seems that they have already made adaptation to the area which has by then falle n under security threat of the raid of Issa tribe. U (Detona and Miftah unpublished work 2014). 74 c Moreover, accord ing to informants interviewed mobility among pastoral Afaris is also made based on some indi cators like directions and nature of wind, cloud, rain and even of stars. However according to many Climate change has changed the pattern and frequenc y and distance covered to find pasture and water. This change takes at least two forms. For some mobility is becom ing less important as they are forced by natural calamity to change their livelihood from mobile pastorali sm to somewhat settler farmer/agro- pastoral or trader. On the other hand for those who still stick to pastorali sm alone things are chan ging in to the odds and worst scenarios. According to many the di stance covered has a lot of difference compared to the previous times. u Pasture is not available in nearby places. This relates to the variability of rain and precipitation due to climate change and the resulted shottage of grass. In prev ious times the grass and water was available in less remote areas and even in each tribes grazing areas which was not far away from temporary settlement area. But nowadays due to change in climate these resources have become more inaccessible and avail able in very remote areas. Thus the people are travelling to remote area where it rains to find grass and water. This has many consequences on the well being of the pastoral household especially the women. Moreover mobility in search of water and pasture during dry seasons among others usually causes conflict. An interviewee in AloIa kebele to this end mentioned that "now aday' s mobility is creating conflict". This is because of depletion of resource and competition fo r it. He mentioned a day before this interview, "conflict was to happen between two Afar sub clans in doo area and it was stopped by intercession of the elders. This was when an Afar sub clan Dabane moved and tried to settle and graze in another area controlled by other sub tribe". According to him this kind of conflict (between two closer sub tribes of Afaris) were unusual in pervious times as there was enough pasture fo r all and used communally at least between to sub clans. In the pastoral mode of production each group and sub group has its own grazing area. And the norm was that conflict over pasture occurs between two different clans say between Afar and Issa or between Afar and kereyu Oromo. This is changing now and there has emerged a situation in which conflict between two sub clans to occurring (Interview and group discussion in Awash). - ADm · AKA,,-! CA 75 . \1M M.~US IIN r VE IIS ITY LHHtARY c In addition to the aforementioned factors according to informants pastorali st mobility in thi s part of the region is also impeded by economic and policy factors. Mobility of pastorali st is limited in the park area and to the river sources is by those agents protecting the area for some investment and national development or security reasons. Some of the mentioned that they can't cross main road s to look for pasture since thi s is forbidden by people protecting the safety of the main road So in light of the importance of pastoral mobility to the sustainability and productivity and other reasons its infringement or impediment will have a detrimental effect that threatens the raison d'etre of pastoralism itself. 4.8.1 Diversifying livelihoods Pastoral household income sources relates to pastorali sm or livestock, dry land farming, and other activities different from farming and herding. The income from pastoralism consists of milk off-take for own consumption and sales, livestock slaughter for own consumption, livestock sales, and mi scellaneous income from sales of hides and skins (wassie etal, 2008:7). The nonpastoral revenue components include farm income and earnings from various non-pastoral activities. The sum of values of these product components then gives gross pastoral income. So one important indicator to assess the issue of diversification is via measuring the extent to which the households employment and source of income has expanded, changed or shrank over time. According to 90% of informants contacted in previous times the livelihood of the pastoral community was dependent on livestock herding as the sole source of employment and income as well as consumption. But now the pastoralist started to engage in new activities like agriculture, small scale irrigation, petty trading, and involvement in daily labour activities and govenmlent works etc. That the trend in these days and in many cases is people mixing small farm ing with herding small size livestock and sources of household income no longer emanate from livestock alone. So in Awash area the issue of diversification of livelihood among pastoralist is at the stake (own field source 2014). 76 l o In addition to the aforementioned factors according to informants pastoralist mobil ity in this part ofthe region is also impeded by economic and policy factors. Mobility of pastoralist is limited in the park area and to the river sources is by those agents protecting the area for some investment and national development or security reasons. Some of the mentioned that they can' t cross main roads to look for pasture since this is forbidden by people protecting the safety of the main road So in light of the impol1ance of pastoral mobility to the sustainability and productivity and other reasons its infringement or impediment will have a detrimental effect that threatens the raison d'etre of pastoralism itself. 4.8.1 Diversifying livelihoods Pastoral household income sources relates to pastoralism or livestock, dry land farming, and other activities different from farming and herding. The income from pastoralism consists of milk off-take for own consumption and sales, livestock slaughter for own consumption, livestock sales, and miscellaneous income from sales of hides and skins (wassie etal, 2008:7). The nonpastoral revenue components include farm income and earnings from various non-pastoral activities. The sum of values of these product components then gives gross pastoral income. So one imp0l1ant indicator to assess the issue of diversification is via measuring the extent to which the households employment and source of income has expanded, changed or shrank over time. According to 90% of informants contacted in previous times the livelihood of the pastoral community was dependent on livestock herding as the sole source of employment and income as well as consumption. But now the pastoralist started to engage in new activities like agriculture, small scale irrigation, petty trading, and involvement in daily labour activities and government works etc .That the trend in these days and in many cases is people mixing small farming with herding small size livestock and sources of household income no longer emanate from livestock alone. So in Awash area the issue of diversification of livelihood among pastoralist is at the stake (own field source 2014). 76 C' Moreover climate change, with its associated increase in frequency and severity of extreme events, can have deleterious effects on livelihood sustainabi lity. This results in the alteration of livelihoods among the traditional community such as pastoralist. For example during an interview on livelihood options in Awash area a young pastoralist in 20s commented that both farming and pastoralism are good however "fanning is becoming a preferable" way in light of the repeated incidence of drought caused by climate change, and change occurring in pastoralism itself. For him "fanning is better because it could be developed by irrigation in around rivers and in areas where there is no water or river ground water could be used for irrigation purpose" L' (interview). In fact " Where climate change has burdensomely asserted itself, pastoralists and others who hold livestock are forced to seek new livelihoods activities" (Scones, 1998 and Frankenberg, 2003). By the same token in the study area of Awash pastoralists who lost their livestock to drought or some times to raid are usually compelled either to give up their pastoral way of life or become either agro-pastoral or enter into small towns to find any kind of means of survival that could take many forms. Even in case settlement is the viable and possible option say in Sabure kebele it should however be underlined that in most cases it is the women, children and the elderly who actually settle, while most men remain mobile and herd the remaining cattle. For instance 90 % of the informants contacted in this study are active participants in herding though they still have some business in the small town, are part of a settlement and valorization packages under way or hired at wereda level office work and the like. Based on their study conducted in Sahel ian West AfTica, Turner and colleagues explain that among traditional pastoralists, most fami lies have adopted varied livelihood activities that differ from the traditional mobile pastoralism that is central to their identity. Instead, current livelihood practices consist of sedentary farming and livestock rearing as well as various income-generating activities (Turner eta!' 20 II : 184).So with changing environmental and climatic conditions pastoral communities are reducing their dependence on livestock gradually for instance by reducing her size, engage on extra pastoral activities, which in one hand implies change in livelihood and on the other hru1d it is one way of coping mechanism and part of societies effort to build their resilience. This is important development in light of the persisting believe among 77 pastoralists in keeping large herd size for prestige and the high propensity of livestock 's to be destroyed by drought thereof. However caution should be made that diversification and herd size reduction by pastoralist does not imply pastoralism to be unviable. Rather it is a mechanism vital to risk reduction in cond ition of disasters and tool to increasing the resilience of the community. And though proving whether pastoralism in viable in Awash area is not the purpose of this study, it has been clearly and crudely asserted in the literature review part that pastoral ism is the most viable and productive way suitable to the harsh ecology characterizing the area. u The following is interview given by a pastoralist in Awash town which better illustrates the case. Farming and pastoralism are the same. Bolh are primitive production for subsistence. Both have their own advantage and disadvantage. What matters is nol which way to follow but how to use it. What mailers most is the inputs added to each to increase ils productivity. Agriculture is betler if it is done in proper manner. If people provided with the required input, training and technology that increases the productivity of the farm and the livestock herding both can be profitable business. But I can '{ say farming is better than herding because I don't have the experience of using farming as source of my living. (Interview in Sabure kebele in Awash). This assertion was one of the most OCCUlTing during all discussions made. For overwhelming majority 80% (n-I =36) in situation where the appropriate and possible mode of production to the eco system is pastoralism, then the best way to increasing the productivity of the livestock is through mobility. A pastoralist understanding of rain is that it is not a thing that has constant L nature. It is variab le matter that occurs everywhere. So this by itself entail s people to move in search of pastme and water of the rain that falls somewhere in the communally owned grazing area. They noted that the cattle themselves prefer a grass grown by rain water thus they 78 o themselves prefer mobility. Thus livestock are the son of rain. They prefer to go where there is rain. They prefer where there is life, Where the rain brings the dead earth in to alive (field own data).The following is quotation better illustrate the case. Our livelihood is dependent on the environment and natural resource. And we could have the option to engage in agricultural activities through settlement .However according to our tradition we are a people that marry up to four wives and have the responsibility to fit/jill the need of all these wives with their children. With engagement in agricultural production which we are less familiar with, we don '( believe we could feed and manage these type of extended family of ours. However through herding we can manage them properly. Pastoralism is our way of life in which we have livedfor years since our forefathers" (Interview with a community leader in Sabure kebele). The interviewee emphasized on the issue of "marrying up to four through herding" in one hand to show the high concern the Afar pastoralist have to their values cultural and religious aspects amid preferring a given way of life. On the other hand it is their way of expressing how herding is a proved and productive way on which people have high dependence and deep believe despite some challenge they have experienced since recent decades. It also reveals that against all odds the people still depend on herding as a way of life and are less familiar on farm related activities and have limited trust in its viability. For them it is like "the devil you are familiar with is better than an Engel you don' t know". Despite the various facts and changes underway in pastoralism and the perceived, actual and projected condition pastoralists facing amid deteriorating environmental conditions and its associated impacts on them, most of pastoralist, ex-pastoralists and agro pastoralists contacted expressed a strong believe in pastoral way of life based on herding of livestock. I found the following poem to best illustrate the mentality highly persisting among the respondents in this regard. It is a poem basically written on camel to show its value among Afar pastoralists. Yet it artistically tells us the whole picture of how pastoralists perceive things. How ( their conceptualization of farming and herding framed. 79 o 3 Mobility to plateau places 3 30 7 42.5 4 Engagement in Petty trade 7 70 8 48 5 Engage in production of charcoal 0 0 I 6.6 6 Small scale farm ing 2 20 2 13 7 food and forage aid 2 20 I 6.6 8 Social safety nets or kin support 6 60 9 54 9 Purchase of cereals 8 80 5 31.5 Source: Own field repOtt, 20 14 (multlple responses are possIble) According to many informants in this area, failure of Sugum rain or insufficient amount of rainfall in Karma or Sugum season usually trigger drought. Thi s has immediate and tremendous impact in reducing livestock feed and water availability, and death of livestock. It also faci litates di sease outbreak. These all jeopardize household food security and income. In response to such challenges Afar pastoralist use different coping strategies. The Afar community has its own traditional coping mechanisms. During times of drought the community comes together to deal with issues of how to survive drought and other natural and manmade calamity. Thi s involves di scussion on deciding the direction of mobility in search of pasture, which should graze on reserved pastures, problems of anticipated flood solved by mobility and settlement in plateaus. Shortage of food s and other needs at household level is solved by sharing the one better off to those do not have. This mostly occurs between relatives and closer keens locally called Abino. This involve slaughtering of livestock ranging from goats to camels depending on the size of the famil y and the intensity of the problem and in a situation when it' s impossible to get market for sell ing livestock. The mutual support also applies in case of lose of properly usually livestock due to raid or conflict. In the fo llowing table the different coping mechanisms out lined by respondents in all form of discussion has been summarized. TablelO: perceived changes and adaptation mechanisms used by the pastoral community SIN I Community perception of chanfl:c Repeated incidence of drought Expcrienced impacts on Livelihood system Death of livestock 83 Adaptation strategy Restocking, selling li vestock, engage in non pastoral activities, migration Potential Future risks Growi ng livelihood insecurity o 2. High temperature linked to decrease in water availability Failure of crop in small irrigation Lack of drink water for man and animal Lack of pasture Decrease land value 3. Emergence human diseases People become sick Impact on labour force Se ll of livestock's Buying cereal food stuff Mobility Wom en fetching for water Using river water Traditional medicine Visit health facilities Government emergency program Threat on livelihood Impact on the wellbeing or health condition of the community 4. Delay of rain and less rainy days Shortage of pasture water Increased distance of mobility 5. incidents of flash flood Destruction on resource, spread vector born diseases 6. outbreaks new animal disease Death of livestock 's Risk for human health 7. Restrictions on movement to other districts and cross international borders Problem in access to grass and trees and herbs for livestock Effect on coping drought 8 9. New invas ive species Prosopis Juliflora 10. Resource use induced conflict Reduced number of all tvoes of livestock High livestock mortality II. o 12. 13. Collapse oftraditional resource use institutions Mobility where there is rain, using reserved graz lIlg Increased food and livelihood in security Moving to new settlement places Settling on plateau area Government intervention, use of traditional medicine Changing mobility direction Threat of disaster on livelihood Increased distance of Mobility mobility . Selling of livestock Conflict to access Buying forage resource Decrease in livestock productivity Decrease in number of cattle Decrease in breeding Destroyed pasture Cutting the tree land Making charcoal Destructed farm land Making timber wood Increased charcoal Changing the weed to business other form s Threat of community Peace building through relation traditional means Reduced means of Engage in other livn ~ activitv Reduced means of Selling livestock living Engage in new bu siness Cutting of trees Restoring cultural Increased charcoal values and institutions 84 Risk on livestock asset Erode coping capacity of dry times Loss of biodiversity threat to livelihood Increased food and live lihood insecurity Destruction of the asset base Threat to social relations Threat to way of life Challenge on live lihood Threat to environment c High rate of forced withdrawal from pastoral ism Source: Own field repOtt, 2014 14 producers number Threat to biodiversity Change in way of life Poverty vulnerability by clan leaders Engage on farming Petty trade Waged laborer Change from pastoralist to farm Coping and Adaptation depends on developing resilience in the face of uncertainty. At the core of adaptation is the concept of resilience, which encompasses the abilities of countries, communities, households and individuals to cope with climate change. Traditionally, poor pastoralists have developed various form s of resilient livelihood to cope with a range of natural ( and manmade stresses and shocks (Wassie etal, 2008:2). And pastoralists have survived for centuries the effect of environmental change. However, as observed above the increased frequency of extreme weather, repeated incidence of droughts has put in threat the economic and social coping mechanisms and resiliencies the Afar pastoralist had". The old approaches of protecting the environment through mechanisms like Erena in Afar has become inadequate and obsolete viewed in li ght of newly emerging challenges in the area for example the charcoal business and the subsequent destruction of indigenous tree or the spread of Prosopis luliflora and the loss of grazing pasture (Gordon, 2009: 19). In this sense the issue of climate change adaptation and resilience building in this part of pastoral and dry land areas of Ethiopia become imperative. Related to the poor level of socio economic and other infra structural development and the resultant complication of the challenge to be faced , the action taken will therefore require a holistic and multi dimensional approach (Siri Eriksen etal, 2012: 14). It needs additional investment on mainstream developmental activities on early warning, food security, WASH, health, livestock and education. Parallel to thi s action on disaster resilience activities as part of relief intervention is imperative (Courtenay Cabot Venton etal, 2012:18). 4,9.1 Vulnerability & capacity assessment o The interpretations provided by the social vulnerability school stresses that vulnerability is closely tied to a household 's resource base and capability to act and respond to given stresses, and is not just related to climatic hazards, but to a range of stressors in the social realm. With climate change adaptation f1.llthermore being tangled together with different ' adaptations' to 85 different sets of ri sk and opportunities, the study of livelihoods at the local level provides suitable entry points from which to investigate the characteristics of and processes driving vulnerability and adaptation. Accordi ngly People' s lives, livelihoods, and wellbeing are at risk either directly or indirectly from the destructive effects of a hazard in one hand the socio economic and political conditions on the other. Thus as learned from the stud y in Afar area communi ties incomes and livelihoods are at risk because of the socio econom ic reality they are in one hand and the effect of climate change on this asset they owe on the other. In this case, elements at risk comprise people life and wellbeing, livestock, local systems and social structures, traditional coping strategies, and natural resources base. The process of creating vulnerabi lity profile for Awash area pastoral community shall be based on a Framework that not on ly considers impacts driven by climate change, but also by non-climatic factors (environmental, economic, social, demographic, technological, and political factors) that may have beneficial and/or adverse effects on the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of conuTIunities. Accordingly four main vulnerability determinants of livelihood namely social, environmental, economic, physical factors were employed to conduct vulnerability assessment in the case in the study area. And the following table provides main elements of each aspect of vulnerabil ity identified and observed by the community that took part in focus group discussion undertaken. Table 11: Summery of vulnerabilities identified by the community in group discuss ion Risk Vulnerability meas urement/indicator factors category C limate change related hazard Economic Physical Social Dependence on Poor leve l of Population pressure primary o sustenance development - Lack of deve lop ment and relief projects that aim build capacity ofthe most vulnerable group - high dependency on li vestock whi ch more susceptible to - Weak adaptive 86 development schemes co llapsing traditional resource use and management institutions climatic hazards Poor productive asset base c. Limitation in dry land and environment infrastructure commodities of livestock for Environmental c capacity poor netwo rkin g and linkage Environ mental degradati on Minimum Poor institutions in Population increase Lack of fonna l schemes to 0PPol1unity for resource management pressure on scarce protect resource at loca l income resource level Fragile asset Dependence of cattle Weakening traditional base on pasture institutions Lack of Emergency of weeds alternative destroying the land Outbreak Poor access to Problem in veterin ary Erosion in use of local of anima l care and services med ication disease treatm ent Increase in drought Lack of water Problem in access to Poor level of Poor level of li vestock marketing awareness saving centers Weak restock ing capacity Spread Weak purchasing of human power Poor level of behavior Problem in access and using facilities in medication Shortage of water and disease Limited access to sanitation facilities Source: Own field report, 2014 o 87 t. Repeated drought ( Chapter Five Summary, Conclusion and Recommendation 5.1. Summary As the world climatic conditions ever deteriorating, it becomes increasingly impotiant to understand the impacts of climate change on human livelihoods. The overall objective of this thesis was to assess the effect of climate change on the livelihoods of pastoralists in Afar region of Ethiopia. In doing so it analyzes the relations between climate change, livelihood vulnerabi lity and adaptation capacity. The research into climate change and livelihood is sti ll in an early stage o but some key points can already be made. Climate change posed an obvious challenge for states and societies in the world. For Africa and for developing countries like Ethiopia, the challenge is immense. This is because the country depends on natural resource exploitation for its economic survival. About 70% of the total area of Ethiopia is characterized as dry land and in this area about 12% of the total population depends on pastoral and agro-pastoral. Most of pastoralist resided regions and people are highly dependent on natural resources and the livestock sector for food , employment and income. Changes in climate damage the agriculture and livestock sector and this will thus have a major impact on incomes and livelihoods. Almost all of pastorally resided areas and regions of Ethiopia have already experienced hazards caused by climate change. And Afar is one of the most affected regions by the impact of the change. The literature review (chapter two) presented a number of studies which have been written on pastoralism. And Climate change has become a major feature of development discussions about pastoralism. This is because pastorali st have been suffered severely from effect of climate change and it is projected that climate change in much of the arid and semi arid areas will be manifested in increased frequency and severity of drought and that pastoralists will more and more become victims. Projecting future climates in pastoral areas is also fraught with uncertainty. These projections of future climate in pastoral areas have led to a polarized discussion of impacts on pastoralists. On the one hand there is a fear, that pastoralist livelihoods, o especially in East Africa, are fast becoming unsustainable: pastoralists are in danger of becoming "the first climate refugees". On the other hand, there is a view, presented by NGOs and others that pastoralists are by their nature adapters, and if left to themselves will adapt, quite possibly more successfully than dry land crop-farmers (Little, 2010, IIRR, 2003, Brooks, 2006, Petrsberg, 88 ( 2010, AU 20 I O).Accordingly it has been clear that in one or another way climate change is important issue in pastoral development discourse and literature. The literatures reviewed also put into perspective. One of thi s was the pastoralist vulnerability perspective. Under this two contending paradigms have been detailed. These were the pastoralist pessimism and positive view of pastoralism. As the designation connotes the pessimist see pastoralism in threat Vis climate change and the positive view in contrary to the pessimist see pastoralism as a strategy vital to adaptation and as a sustainable way of life suitable to dry lands amid deteriorating environment. Parallel to thi s certain conditions and historical events that have had impact on o pastoralism have also been put into perspective. This is including the impact of colonialism and the livelihood vulnerability perspectives. Major debates on climate change effect on pastoralism has been empirically presented and reviewed. In this section the development policies of Ethiopia to pastoralism and the countries policy on climate change Vis pastoral areas have been briefed. Chapter three provided the methodological introduction of the research. Where the detail about the research design, study area, method of data collection analysis plus approach for data validation presented. As part of the study qualitative approach based on VCA and SLA used. Chapter four on the other hand provided introductory information about Afar regions topographic, livelihood and mobility issue. Chapter fi ve of the paper provided the results and findings of the paper. The finding of the research is summarized based on some important thematic areas that helped to categorize the findings in systematic way. The first part of this discussed pastoralist' s perception about climate change and the subsequent effect of this on their livelihood. The second theme was focused on socio economic vulnerabilities to climate change and variability. While the third sub section focused on climate change and livelihood vulnerability. The last thematic area focused on communities coping mechanism. The important elements of some of these thematic areas are briefly presented as follows. 5.1.1 Community perception to climate change o The community's observation of the change has been found significant. The awareness level is high. But there has been different in opinion as what caused the change. The major indicators of the change were identified based on change in patterns of rainfall and change in rain season. 89 L c According to report of the respondents out of six rain seasons known in the area today only two of them occur in un regular matmer and the rest four are already lost. In this regard it has been learned that the rain condition has showed big variation compared to previous times. To validate community perception, comparison with metrological report has been made and in almost all cases it is found to be compatible. By the same token the change in temperature observed has been significant. Associated with this change is the occurrence of incidence and effect of drought on livestock and o according to the community the incidence of drought has dramatically increased with burdensome impact. Many of informants noted that "the last 10-20 year' s area known to be decade of Amni or disaster". Moreover a number of animal and human diseases are also identified. In sum these challenges has had far reaching consequence on the wellbeing and sustenance of the pastoralist' s livelihood. Associated with drought and lack of pasture and water is high livestock mortality occurred. Productivity declined. And among others many animal and plant grass species decreased and even lost. 5.1.2 Impacts of climate change in the Awash One aspect of this theme is the effect of the change on work division in the society. In this regard it has been identified that women have become more burdened in their work. Climate change has brought about new responsibility on women other than which they traditionally assigned, this new work include searching for grass and water for livestock. Moreover the lack of water has increased distance cover by women to collect water. I 00 % of respondents confirmed to the decrease in water availability in last 20 years. Another aspect of this theme is change in access and control profile of resources. In relation to this a number of trees, shrubs, and grass species have been identified to have become in accessible and extinction. On the other hand invasive weeds have become common in the area. One of the most devastative of this aggressive trees identified was Prosopis luliflora. This tree controlled the most productive asset of the pastoralist o i.e. pasture. The expansion of this tree caused damage on land and grass availability in the wereda and also causing the expansion of charcoal business in the area with a distributive implication on indigenous trees destruction in one hand and affecting local environmental protection institutions like Erena. 90 L c The third component in this thematic area is climate change and its relation to vulnerability of livelihood. In this regard it is observed that climate change affected important values and means in pastoralist adaptation. One of this is its effect on restriction of mobility. Mobility patterns are increased for those pastoralists who are still in herding of livestock. This caused in many cases conflict with other Afar sub tribes competing for meager resources. More importantly the change aggravated the destruction of the pastoral asset base. For example drought kill s livestock. Lack of water and pasture reduced productivity and feltility of livestock. So this erodes the peoples o asset and forced them alter their livelihood. In addition the change caused forced migration from pastoralism to other non pastoral activities. This in turn implied change in source of employment, income and food. The term used to express thi s situation is diversification. Yet even this is with a number of structural challenges and the task of adaptation through diversification is not to level it should have been. Diversification of livelihoods is constrained by deficiencies in physical health, skills and knowledge. Therefore, public spending and programs related to health, education and wellbeing can facilitate diversification in the future. As a way of life that sustained in dry land environment pastoralism and the pastoral community had a tested mechanism of coping challenges from within and without forces. Some of the coping strategies identified as response to felt damage of climate change are including: use of reserved grazing areas, selling of livestock, mobility, and engaging on non pastoral activities including non agricultural one. On the top of these is the presence of a strong social safety net especially between near kin and kith that functions based on the principle of reciprocity. o 91 ( c 5.2. Conclusions Several overarching conclusions can be drawn from the summary. First People in the Afar region have lived with significant climate variability in the past and are likely to face increased climate variability and changing climate in the future. They have used a number of livelihood strategies as mentioned in the body and summery of this research. Yet adaptation depends on developing resilience in the face of uncel1ainty. At the core of adaptation is the concept of resilience, which encompasses the abi lities of countries, communities, households and individuals to cope with climate change. o Traditionally, Afar pastoralists have developed various forms of resilient livelihood to cope with a range of natural and manmade stresses and shocks. These are social safety nets that are based on kin affinity. The other is social support tool that operates according to the principle of reciprocity. Erena is also the other mechanism mentioned and used in managing resources in sustainable and environmentally conscious manner .On the top of all these is pastoral mobility with its multifaceted rationale and importance that enabled all pastoral production systems sustain and tlu'ive in the hard ecology for thousands of years. In this way pastoralists have survived for centuries the effect of environmental change. Their very existence testifies how this way oflife is adapli ve. As pastoralists do most communities have some ability to respond to changes and extreme climatic events, the expected impacts of climate change will exceed this capacity almost in all cases. The old approaches of mobility and Erena may be inadequate, compromised and become obsolete viewed in light of newly emerging challenges in the future (Gordon 2009: 19). Vulnerability of livelihood among the pastorals of Ethiopia is also the result of the geo political and historical factors. The pastoral area historically have been marginalized and the governments and nongovernmental actors in the past have made little investment on basic physical and human infrastructure (African Union 2012: 17, OD!, 2009 : 1, Kate Wellard Dyer, o 2012: vii).This made the common future of the area to be poverty, under development and backwardness and vulnerability of li velihood. According to Ribot (1996), inequality and marginalization are among the most important determinants of vulnerabi lity (Santiago: 2001:9). 92 c c 5.3. Suggestions and Recommendations The implications of these findings show that the Afar pastorali st's community is the community living under the continuous ri sks that made them more vulnerable to climate variability change. However, the community has been struggling to adapt the challenges they have been facin g from time to time as the challenges are also changing from time to time. Recent evidence in the climate change includes increasi ng temperatures and drought frequency, as well as unpredictabl e rain s that fall in shorter but more intense episodes. The magnitude and o rate of current climate change, combined with additional environmental, social and political issues, are making many traditional coping strategies ineffective and/or unsustai nable, augmenting environmental degradation and food insecurity, and forcing communities to rapidly find new livelihood strategies. Besides the aforementioned challenges ties with climate change there are other non climatic variable that exacerbate the livelihood vulnerability among Afar pastoralists in the study area. The result of the interviews and group discussions made 111 this study reflects that the community blames the variability in rain fall and the ever deteriorating situation in their asset base especially access to grazing land as they do the blaming on governmental intervention. They are also more compliant to the current condition in which they are. They tend to associate it (" with rainfall variability that makes them vulnerable to drought. And that nobody is doing anything to help them skip this worst condition in which they are. The implication I understand from the worry they have and the real situation the poor household today are in, especially the women, echoes that the issue should be seen beyond an academics and or development debate. This is especially important given that most of the people contacted felt that what matters for them is not an academics obfuscation and intellectual judo of politicians and other development actors play on the issue of pastoralist development by wasting time and effoli on question of o which one is better, farming or herding. The answer is as one of the respondents said basically farming and herding are meant to be means of living for people. Both are two faces of the same coin. They are in case of Ethiopia or Afar "primitive mode of production which is dependent on rain fall". Lack of rain affects potential farmers in Afar as it affects transhumance pastoralist. 94 c And what matters is creating the environment in which peoples: pastoralist or farmers livelihood option are expanded, li ve lihoods are improved. The contention on settlement or mobility of pastoralists continued between concerned policy makers and development actors. In the one side of the spectrum most development actors and practitioners as well as activist including environmentalist emphasized the need for greater caution from rushing in to settlement or disselting the pastoral arid areas in to cash crop production schemes. To this end the associated arguments has been detailed in the literature o review part. On the other hand and at the other side of the coin there is a governmental policy that aims to settle pastoralists through process over time. To this end since the year 2004 E.C. there has been a program for villagization of the pastoralists around rivers. This program is by now in its third year and the achievement of the program is said to be successful in some regions like Gambela and Benishangul. While the report for Afar and Somali region is not as expected and is very poor. To this end the limitation in basic infrastructures has been mentioned by the ministry of foreign affairs. In any case it is clear from the statements made and documents assert the position of the government is to "stabilize" the wundering pastoralist livelihood through settlement and the subsequent provision of services (ETV prime news 8 P.M 25 May 2014 report by minister of MoFA). l In balance things seem to favor agro-pastorali sm than the pure livestock herding way of life. As an interviewee in Sabure said given the reality ongoing in the area vis expansion of farms, governments policy on Sedentarization, the deteriorating climatic conditions and the already eroded pure pastoral way of life, farming and sedentary based business is more feasible and realistic or pragmatic option that is compatible with the socio economic and political environment of the day. o On the other hand a person like the key informant with a BA degree in environmental prefer to see things balanced. For him "The settlement of pastora lists should not be realized over night and above all not imposed". Also at least for the sake of hedging and the uncertainty of what is 95 c c coming In the future amid deteriorating climati c conditions and ever changing world, there should be space for pastoral way of production in the region where this is the best option. As some interviewee does many people men and women, the youth or elderly contacted and whose situation observed by me during the field study are in a mood undecided or "confused" its remind from the di scussion made above women mother of 5 said she prefers farming to pastorali sm given her "the appropriate training and capacity in terms of resource" and that she had already planted tomato and maize and waiting the blessing of Allah. o As I were preparing the first draft report of his study to be submitted on may 20 I were watching ETV prime news at 8pm in the evening. A report hearing by parliaments standing committee on emerging regions development affairs some issues of settlements in lowland regions was raised. In the middle of thi s, the report of Afar was questioned for it showed very poor result. One of the speakers said Out of 10,000 householders planned to be settled in the reporting period only23 % was achieved. And the minister was questioned why this poor performance? He left the question un answered and he replied the other night the reason to be related to the "poor level of institutional capacity and development in the area" (ETV may 20 and 22, 2014, 8pm prime news). This is in conformity of the findin g of thi s research that vulnerability of livelihood in this area cannot solely be attributed to climate change effect alone. The change in climate and ,, impacts of drought become catastrophic because the community has weak resilience capacity and the poor level of infrastructural development and accessibility. In any case the community in the area has faced the devastating impact caused by drought. It has lost its cattle to drought, resources of grass are di sappearing, and indigenous animal and tree species are also disappearing. The pastorali st has already lost their land to Prosopis Juliflora in zone three: to commercial farmin g and irrigation schemes in Awash. They are told by extension agents that farming is better way of doing things for survival in Ethiopia. They are trying to convince themsel ves of this. But they are little fam iliar with the how of using the land for living. o So they deserve the right to be shown or helped to do it if in fact thi s is the best option possible vis climate change and sustainability issues. Person should be convinced and showed that how people can get marry up to fo ur wives through agricultural production before rushing in to 96 ( simply to settle the pastoralist who already is self employed. Development is after all about a matter of change in behavior as behavioral school of taught contend. A. Recommendation to building resilience Key underl ying drivers of vulnerability in pastora l and agro-pastoral communiti es in Awash and Afar region include environmental degradation ; population pressures; conflicts; social and gender inequalities; inadequate non pastoral ,non farming employment opportunities and skills; poor access to infrastructure; reso urces and services; weakening of the role of traditional o institutions are the major .The governmental and nongovernmental actors shou ld aim to address these underlying drivers of vu lnerability. Interventions in the area shou ld therefore aim to build resilient livelihoods by supporting investment in and development of key infrastructure and services. Construction of more school, their appropriate staffing, and provision of incentives for school attendance such as food for education programmes could be beneficial. Besides this crude measures some of the following are activities that deserve the attention of the governmental and other actors working in the area Enhancing climate change resilience for improved livelihoods Unpredictable erratic rainfall patterns have become common occurrences in the region. Most livelihood assets are and systems are rain fed; hence vulnerable. Crop growing conditions and seasons are becoming less predictable and there are increased livestock pests and diseases. Tackling observed and projected climate change impacts requires a coherent, integrated approach, which builds community' s resi lience or adaptive capacity. Climate change and variability has exacerbated these challenges heightening vulnerabi lity of livelihoods in the areas. In order to cushion communities against climate change vagaries, proposed adaptation strategies should build resilience of communities. o Improving climate resilient, water management system Dry land areas are known for water scarcity. This is compounded with impact of climate change where most parts of the region are experiencing prolonged drought, erratic rainfall, drying of 97 ( c seasonal rivers and water springs among other water bodies. Thi s affects both the agricuIture& livestock sectors of the region that are vital to community's survival. The proposed action in the area therefore should foc us on adaptation activities that will improve water resource access and utilization. Strengthening capacity and knowledge management of adaptations to climate change Limited livelihood diversity, poor infrastructure and widespread poverty are some of the bottlenecks aggravating vulnerability in the area. The drought, coupled with natural aridity of the o area has also resulted into rampant water shortage, widespread loss of local vegetation and severe pasture depletion. The situation will definitely further aggravated by the massive cutting of trees for fuel (charcoal) among others. Suggested strategies to improving the livelihood of the community: • Strengthen and support diversification activities • Addition of value to li vestock products such as milk, through milk processing schemes to increase pastoral household incomes. • promoting the effort to diversifying livelihood underway by the pastoralists especially women's in Awash • Restoring and strengthening the Erena traditional institution for rangeland management and environmental protection endeavors • Promotion and supporting farming practices where this is best suit; • maintaining, rehabilitating and constructing water infrastructure for people and livestock • investment on education ; savings and credit; establi shing community groups to building comn1lmities resilience capacity; • Building soc ial safety nets and institutions that are crucial to reducing resource induced conflicts. o To do away with the underlying drivers of climate-related vulnerability @'" Protect pastoral li velihoods and entitl ements tJu'ough solving impediments 011 mobility and investment 98 ( (iF enhance access to physical and human infi'aslructure (ff' improves social services in pastora l areas; 0iF reclamation of land from encroaclunent by Prosopi s Juliflora 0iF protect the enviromnent through fore station and land reclamation schemes 0iF Strengthening the institutional capacity traditional enviromn ental protection institutions like Erena since it is threatened by people cutting tree for charcoal. o o 99 ,. c '. ... . ~ References Adger, W. Neil, Irene Lorenzoni , and Karen L. O'Brien, eds (2009). Adapting to Climate Change: Thresholds, Values, Governance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Adger, WN (2000) ' Social and ecological resili ence: Are they related ?' Progress in Human o Geography 24: 347- 364. Agarwal, B. (2000). Conceptualizing environmental collective action: why gender matters. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 24, 283-310. Afar National Regional State. (20 I 0) Programme of Plan on Adaptation to Climate Change Semera. African Union . (2010) Policy Framework for Pastoralism in Africa: Securing, Protecting and Improving the Lives, Livelihoods and Rights of Pastoral Communities, Addis Ababa. Approved at Executive Council 18th Ordinary Session 24-28 January 20 II , Addis Ababa. Alex evans .(2012) Resources, ri sk and resilience: scarcity and climate change in Ethiopia . Andrew Ridgewell and Fiona Flintan eds.(2007) Gender & Pastoralism Volume II:Livelihoods & Income Development in Ethiopia. SOS Sahel Ethiopia. Ayalneh Bogale.(2006) Resource Scarcity Induced Confl ict and itsManagement: Implication for c Sustainable RuralLivelihoods in Eastern Ethiopia. HiCN Working Paper 17. The Institute of Development Studies - at the University of Sussex - Falmer - Brighton - BNI 9RE. 100 L Belay Simane, Benjamin F. Zaitchik etal .(2009) Building Climate Resilience In the Blue Nile/ Abay Highlands: A Framework for Action. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health. Bekele Hundie and Martina Padmanabhan (2008). The Transformation of the Afar commons in Ethiopia. State Coercion, Diversification, and Property Rights Change among Pastoralists. CAPRi Working Paper No. 87. o Blackwell, PJ.( 20 I 0). East Africa's Pastoralist Emergency: is climate change the straw that breaks the camel's back? Third World Quarterly 31 , 1321 - 1338. Birch, I. and R. Grahn (2004). 'Background Note on Pastoralism and Climate Change for the 2007 Human Development Report'. Brooks Nick (2006). Climate change, drought and pastoralism in the Sahel. Discussion note for the World Initiative on Sustainable Pastoralism. Brooks Nick (2003). Vulnerability, risk and adaptation: A conceptual framework Tyndall Centre c for Climate Change Research Working Paper 38. Burawoy, M. (1998). "The extended case method". Sociological Theory 16 (I): 1-33 CHF International (2012). Ethiopia: Needs Assessment Report Somali Region- Gode & Warder Zones. c 101 Courtenay C, Venton, C, Fitzgibbon, Tenna S, Lorraine C, & Olivia Doole (2012). The Economics of Early Response and Disaster Resilience: Lessons from Kenya and Ethiopia. Economics of Resi lience Final Report. CSA (2008). Summary and Statistical Report of the 2007 Population and Housing Census: Population Size by Age and Sex. Federa l Democratic Republic of Eth iop ia, Population Census Commission, Addis Ababa o Daniel Blobel and Nils Meyer,ed.( 2006). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change Handbook. Bonn, Germany: Climate Change Secretariat Halesworth, UK by Technographic Design and Print Ltd. Davies, J. and Bennett, R. (2007). 'Livelihood adaptations to risk: constraints and opportunities for pastoral development in Ethiopia's Afar region ' , Journal ojDevelopment Studies. Debay Tadesse.( 2010). The impact of climate change in Africa ISS Paper 220 European <.. Commission. (2012) the EU Approach to Resilience: Learning From Food Security Crisis. DFIO. Overview ofDFIO's sustainable livelihoods (SL) approach:http://www.li velihoods.orglinfo/guidance sheets pdfs/section l.pdf Derek Headey, Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse and Liangzhi You (2012). Enhancing Resilience in o the Horn of Africa An Exploration into Alternative Investment Options. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). 102 l Devereux, S. (2006). Vulnerable Livelihoods in Somali Region, Ethiopia. OD! Research Report No. 57. Sussex, UK: Overseas Development Institute. Devereux, S., and l. Scoones (2008). The Crisis of Pastoralism? A Response. Discussion Paper 003. Brighton, UK: Future Agricultures Consortium. o Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector and USAID (2011). An Atlas of Ethiopian Livelihoods. Djoudi, H., & Brockhaus, M. (2011). Is adaptation to climate change gender neutral? Lessons from communities dependent on livestock and forests in northern Mali. International Forestry Review, 13(2). Dula Wakassa Duguma (2013). Adaptation of pastoralists to climate variability The case of the KmTayu pastoralists' community in the Upper Awash Valley of Ethiopia.MA thesis. Department of Sociology and Human Geography University of Oslo. ( Ebi, K.L. , Padgham, J., Doumbia, M., Kergna, A., Smith, J. Butt, T., & McCarl, B., (Oct 2011). Smallholders" adaptation to climate change in Mali. Climate Change , 108, 423-436. Ethiopia' s Climate Resilient Green Economy Strategy document (2010). o 103 Elliot Frantkin,Mmiha Nathan, Eric A. Roth (2011). Seeking alternative livelihoods in Northern Kenya:costs and benefits in health and nutrition. Institute of development studies, University of Sussex and the Feinstein international center of Tufts University. Eva Ludi. (2009) Background Note The Overseas Development Institute is the UK. Food and Agriculture Organization of The United Nations FAO (2010).Lessens from the field.Experiances from FAO climate change proj ects. Publication produced as an outcome of the o FAG climate change days workshop held at FAO headquarters in Rome, Italy on 21,23 June, 2010. Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (2010). Ethiopia's Climate- Resilient Green Economy Strategy. The Path to Sustainable Development. Future Agricultures Consortium (2012). Pastorali sm in the Horn of Africa: Diverse livelihood pathways. FAC CAADP Policy Brief 06 I March 2012 www.future-agricultures.org. Global 500 Climate Change Report (2013). Gaspard Bikwemu (2012).Drought Resilience and Sastainable Livelihoods Program in Horn of Africa (Drslp-Hoa).lnter Government Authority for Development (IGAD). Galvin, K.A, Layne Coppock, D., & P. Leslie (1994). Diet, Nutrition and Pastoral Strategy. In o African Pastoralist Systems: An Integrated Approach. Edited by E. Fratkin, K.A. Galvin, and E.A. Roth. Lynne Rienner Publishers: Boulder, CO. pp. 113-1 32. 104 Gordon Conway (2009). The SCience of climate change 111 Africa: impacts and adaptation. International Development, Imperial College London. Hany Besada and Nelson K. Sewankambo . (eds)(2009). Climate Change in Africa: Adaptation, Mitigation and Governance Challenges. C1Gl Special Report Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. o Humanitarian Policy Group (2009). Pastoralism , policies and practice 111 the I-lorn and East Africa A review of current trends Synthesis paper. IFAD (2009). Livestock and Climate Change: Livestock Thematic Papers . IFRC (20 \\ ).orought in the Horn of Africa Preventing the next disaster International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Geneva Switzerland. IIED & SOS Sahel( 2010). Modern and mobil e: the future oflivestock production in Africa' s c drylands. London: IIED & SOS Sahel. Intergovernmental Authority on Development (2007/8). Climate Change and Human Development in Africa: Assessing the Risks and Vulnerability of Climate Change in Kenya, Malawi and Ethiopia. o IPCC, (2000a). Presentation of Robert Watson, Chair, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, at the Sixth Conference of the Pal1ies to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, The Hague, 13 November 2000. 105 L lPCC, (2001). Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Report of Working Group 11 of the International Panel on Climate Change. Switzerland: IPCC lPCC TAR, (200 I a) . Climate Change 200 I: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. IPCC Th ird Assessment RepOlt, Cambridge University Press. o IPCC TAR, (2001 b). Climate Change 2001 : The Scientific Basis.lPCC Third Assessment RepOlt, Cambridge Univers ity Press. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007). C limate Change 2007 - The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment RepOlt of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. International Institute of Rural Reconstruction (2003). Managing Dryland Resources an extension manual for Eastern and Southern Africa. Institute of Rural Reconstruction ,Nairobi, Kenya,Majestic Printers Ltd. Isobel Birch and Richard Grahn (2007/45). Pastoralism - Managing Multiple Stressors and the Threat of Climate Variabi lity and Change. Background note on pastoralism. Final draft, May 2007. o 106 Jeffrey Stark, Katsuaki Terasawa, and Mersie Ej igu (201 1). Climate Change and Confl ict in Pastoralist Regions of Ethiopia: Mounting Challenges, Emerging Responses CMM Discussion PaperNo. 4. Joanne Philpott, Asnake Abera and Kassaye Hadgu (2005). Livelihoods/Emergency Assessment in Afar Region For: Oxfam International. o Jones, P.G, & Thornton, P.K. (2009). Croppers to livestock keepers: livelihood transitions to 2050 in Africa due to climate change. Environmental Science & Policy, 12,427-437. Kate Wellard Dyer.( 2012) Pastoralism in the Horn of Africa: Diverse livelihood pathways FAC CAADP Policy BriefLisa Alexander eta I. (ed) (2013). Working Group I Contribution to the !PCC Fifth Assessment Report: The Physical Science Basis Summary for Policy makers IPCC WGI AR5 SPM-l . Little, P. D., R. Belmke, J. McPeak, and G. Gebru. (20 10a). Future Scenarios for Pastoral ( Development in Ethiopia, ----------2010-2025. Pastoral Economic Growth and Development Policy Assessment, Ethiopia, Report Number 2. London: Department for Intemational Development. ------------(20 I Ob). Policy Options for Pastoral Development in Ethiopia o ---------------(20 1Oc). Retrospective Assessment of Pastoral Policies in Ethiopia, 1991-2008. 107 c Little, P. D. , R. Behnke, 1. McPeak, and Christopher B. Barrett. (2008). Challenging Orthodoxies: Understanding Poverty in Pastoral Areas of East Africa. Patti Kristjanson, International Livestock Research Institute. McPeak, J. , & Little, P. (2005). Cursed if you do, cursed if you don"t: the contradictory processes of pastoral sedentarization in northern Kenya. As Pastoralists Settle: Social, Health, and Economic Consequences of Pastoral Sedentarization in Marsabit District, Kenya. o Magda Nassef, Simon Anderson and Ced Hesse (2009). Pastoralism and climate change Enabling adaptive capacity. Humanitarian Policy Group Overseas Development Institute III Westminster Bridge Road London SEI 7JDUnited Kingdom. Mirjam Macchi,( 2011). Framework for Community-Based Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment in Mountain AreaslCIMOD Kathmandu, Nepal. Mark Moritz (2011). Review of Risk and Social Change in an African Rural Economy: ( Livelihoods in Pastoralist Communities. Department of Anthropology, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA. Michelle D. Staudinger, Bruce A. Stein.etal (2012). Impacts a/Climate Change on Biodiversity, Ecosystems, and Ecosystem Services: Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment. Cooperative Report to the 2013 National Climate Assessment. 296 p. 108 Mary Ann Brocklesby, Mary Hobley and Patta Scott-Villiers (2010). Raising Voice - Securing a Livelihood:The Role of Diverse Voices in Developing Secure Livelihoods in Pastoralist Areas in Ethiopia.institute of development studies. Mekong River Commission (201 O).Review of climate change adaptation methods and tools MRC Technical Paper No 34. o Michele Nori , Alec Crawford,& Jason Switzer. Mainstreaming Conflict Prevention in development Co-operation Tip Sheet on the Links between Pastoral Livelihoods & Conflict Prevention International Institute for Sustainable Development. Michael Williams. (Ed) (2001). United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Climate Change Secretariat (UNFCCC). climate change information sheet. Michelle D. Staudinger, Nancy B. Grimm, Amanda Staudt, Shawn L. Carter, F. Stuart Chapin III, Peter Kareiva, Mary Ruckel shaus, Bruce A. Stein (2012). Impacts a/Climate Change on Biodiversity, Ecosystems, and Eco.lystem Services: Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment. Cooperative Rep0l1 to the 2013 National Climate Assessment. Miftah Mohammed and Mohammed Detona(2014).Local community protecting wild life Halaydege.Unpubl ished work. C Mirjam Macchi, ICIMOD(2011). Framework for Community-Based Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment in Mountain Areas. Kathn1andu : ICIMOD 109 111 MoARD (2005). Productive Safety Net extension to the pastoral regions of Ethiopia. Unpublished report of the Pastoral Task Force of the Food Security Bureau. Addis Ababa: MoARD. Nessef M. , et al. (2009). Pastoralism and climate change: Enabling adaptive capacity. London. HPGIODI o Nathalie Gomes (2006). Access to water, pastoral resource management and pastoralists' livelihoods Lessons learned from water development in selected areas of Eastern Africa (Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia). Oli Brown (2007/ 17). Climate change and forced migration: Observations, projections and implications. Oxfam (2008). Survival of the fittest: Pastoralism and climate change in East Africa. Briefing paper. Oxfam. (2011 ).Briefing on the Horn of Africa Drought: Climate change and future impacts on food security. Pantuliano, S. and M. Wekesa (2008). Improving Drought Response in Pastoral Areas of Ethiopia: Somali and Afar Regions and Borena Zone of Oromiya Region. London: Overseas c, Development Institute (ODI). 110 ( ( Patta Scott-Villiers, Hussein Boru Ungiti, Diba Kiyana, Molu Kullu, TumalOr to, Eugenie Reidy and Adan Sora(2011).The Long Conversation: Customary Approaches to Peace Management in Southern Ethiopia and Northern Kenya. Future agriculture working paper 22. Patricia Justino (2006). On the Links between Violent Conflict and Chronic Poverty: How Much Do We Really Know? HiCN Working Paper IS the Institute of Development Studies - at the University of Sussex - Falmer - Brighton - BN I 9RE. Pastoralist community d3evelopment proj ect PCDP ART 2 document (2006). Pekka Virtanen, Eero Palmujoki and Dereje Terefe Gemechu(20 11 ). Global Climate Policies, Local Institutions and Food Security in a Pastoral Society in Ethiopia . The Journal of Sustainable Development Vol. 5, Iss. I, Pp. 96-11S University of Jyvaskyl1i, Finland. Penny Holzmann, (ed) (200S). The Household Economy Approach published by Save the children. Rettberg, S. (20 10). Contested narratives of pastoral vulnerability and risk in Ethiopia's Afar Region . Richard B. Alley, Telje Berntsen. (ed) (2007). Summary for Policymakers. 111 ( UNDP Human Development Report (2007/2008). Fighting climate change: Human solidarity in a divided world. UNDP (2012). MDG report Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals Emerging Emerging perspectives from Africa on the post-2015 development agenda. o UNEP United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) IS Rue de Mi lan 75441 Paris. UNOCHA: Pastoralist Communication Initiative (PCI) New Thinking on Food Security. UN OCHA Pastoralist Communication Initiative (2007). The future of pastoralism in Ethiopia. UNOCHA- PCI .The future of pastoralism in Ethiopia.4 possible scenarios. UNOCHA -PCI (2006). Is Pastoralism still viable in the Horn of Africa? New perspectives ii'om Ethiopia. UNOCHA- PCI (2005). Vulnerable Livelihoods in Somali Region, Ethiopia. Issues Paper. Victor A. Orindi, Anthony Nyong and Mario Herrero ( 2007/8). Pastoral Livelihood Adaptation to Drought and Institutional Interventions in Kenya. Human Development Report 2007/2008. 114 Yakob A & Catley A. (2010). Livestock exports from pastorali st areas: an analysis of benefi ts by wealth group and policy implications. Inter-Governmental Authority on Development Livestock Policy Initiative Working Paper No. 0 I-I O. Yohannes GebreMichael;Wolfgang Bayer & Ann Waters-Bayer(201O).Emerging responses to < climate change in pastoral systems. Rural Development News. Young (20 12:4). The Nexus a/Gender and Nutrition: A Literature Review, Wassie Berhanu, David Colman and Bichaka Fayissa (2008). Diversification and Livelihood Sustainability in a Semi-arid Environment: A Case Study from Southern Ethiopia. University of Manchester, UK & Middle Tennessee State University. Watson ( 1996). Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change: Concepts, Issues, Assessment Methods. Wilson and Clarke (1976).Comparison of productivity of cattle in sedentary versus mobile livelihoods in Sudan? World Bank (2011). Response Plan Drought in the Horn of Africa World Bank Group Fact Sheet September 10, 20 II. 115 • What do you do when there is too much ra in/water? - Ask same su b-questions as above • What do you do when the weather is extreme ly hot over a long period of time? - Ask same sub-questio ns as above . • What do yo u do when there is a flood? - How do yo u protect your crops, your animals, yo ur children, and yo ur ho uses and personal be longings? - Are these measures still suffic ient today? Or what, in yo ur view, needs to be done? - How long does it take-'you to get back to norm al life after a fl ood? • Have yo u introduced any new li vestock breeds or given up using some? - If yes, which ones and why? What do you do when your livestock are sick? Affected by diseases? Do you have any remedies fo r this? Are these remedies still useful? - Who is dealing with this prob lem (you, your husband/w ife, or the community as a who le)? Can yo u get any suppOJ1 from the community, from outside (e.g., extension serv ices)? What kind of support would yo u need? • What do yo u do if there is a prolonged period of food shOJ1age? - Do yo u have to go to a moneylender? - Do you engage in off-farm act ivities? - Do you sell any persona l goods? - Do some of yo ur household members mi grate? [f yes, whereto and for how long? - Do yo u get assistance from other members of the community or from outside? - What kind of suppOJ1 wou ld you need? 6. Social capita ls PRA tools: The followi ng questions can be li nked to the Venn di agram on in stitutions • When you try to reso lve these problems, are there any specific community groups or arra ngem ents from which you receive help (e.g., when yo ur livestock are sick? , when there is a water shol1age, when you need assistance because of food shOJ1age, or you need money for a veterinarian or to see a doctor)? 6. Needs assessment • Of the changes, problems, and challenges yo u have mentioned, which ones are the most impOJ1ant ones that you are facing in your dai ly lives at present? • Do these difficu lties differ from the ones yo u were facing 10/20 years ago, or from the ones that yo ur parents were fac ing? [n what way? What do yo u think the reasons are fo r these changes? Which strategies and mechanisms, do you thi nk wo uld help yo u most to a ll eviate the current difficu lties you are facing? • Who could help yo u to overcome these challenges? • What do you think about the interventions that have already happened in you r vi ll age (if any)? Wh ich ones worked and which ones did not? Wh y? • What wo uld help you most to improve yo ur life? A».I~ ·:<\.IA lINIVERSiTY AUKl C,"~S \ 119 UIUltY • Declaration of Originality : Miftflh Mohammed declare that this researches entitled "The Effect of Climate' Change on ~a s tora li s m in Ethiopia: The case of Awash" is the result of my own work. And this thesis has not oeen submitted to any degree, diploma or master program anywhere in any institution. In the research all authorizations are given due acknowledgment. The paper is submitted to Addis Ababa University in partial fulfillment of Master of Arts in Development Studies. NAME: MIFTAH MOHAMMED ID OSRJl205105 ~t SIONATURE-- :': (!;th: b~ _______ n AD.I'" ' .. 1 AKA". NAME OF ADVISSOR: DR. MULUOETA ABEBE (PHD) DA TE - .o;~ - .D}:- - SIONATURE--, ;/ .k:,D fL) -:~ I.'Nll'VIlSITY t.AMPI" LllHtARY