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An attack on a military parade in the southern Iranian city of Ahwaz is likely to prompt Iranian retaliation against opposition groups at home and abroad. It also deepens Iranian fears that the United States.
LUMSA University
Iran protests: The consequences for international security2022 •
Since the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, on September 16, 2022, a wave of unprecedented mass protests has swept the country. For the Iranian government, this represents one of the biggest challenges since its institution in 1979 after the revolution led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. The protests, led primarily by young students and minorities within the country, reflect a society that has dramatically changed over the years, and now has reached a point where it's ready to challenge the current leadership to demand a regime change. The objective of this Policy Brief is to present an accurate picture of the current situation in Iran, and explain the reasons behind the mass protests in the country. The document will also analyze the perspectives of different media in various parts of the world and their role in shaping the perceptions of their audience on current events. Finally, it will also describe various scenarios that could follow a possible fall of the regime, and the consequences for international security, along with purposing practical solutions to mitigate its negative effects.
2015 •
The Iranian regime claimed this week that the United States is behind the terrorist attacks in Paris that claimed 129 lives. The allegation, however, should come as no surprise. Ever since the emergence of the Islamic State, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has claimed that America created the organization, also known as ISIS, ISIL and Daesh. Khamenei argues that ISIS fits into Washington’s two-track strategy to dominate the region by spurring war and exporting anti-Islamic cultural influences. This conspiratorial worldview suggests that Tehran will continue to view the United States as an enemy, regardless of the recent nuclear agreement.
2011 •
Recent protests in Iran erupted on December 28, 2017, initially over an abrupt increase in food prices and the country's overall financial policies. Protesters first started to rally in the second largest city of Mashhad, known for its religious and spiritual identity and hosting the Imam Reza Shrine, then spread to many cities across the country. The riots, which then turned violent by damaging banks and municipal buildings, ended on January 4th leaving behind a number of casualties. It is important to note that we will always stand by the elected government of Iran and be opposed to any attempts and moves intended to weaken the government or cause fragmentation in Iran. Needless to say, all democratic citizens of all countries are entitled to stage democratic demonstrations - just as President Rouhani commented - by saying Iranian citizens must have the right to voice their concerns. He also made another important statement in Press TV as, "We are a free nation, and based on the Constitution and citizenship rights, people are completely free to express their criticism and even their protest."
Pirate Security Conference
Iran -Current situation in the Middle East2020 •
My Talk at the 2020 Pirate Security Conference in Munich 2020 looks like a Game changer for the Middle East. The killing of Qasem Soleimani on January 3rd and the unrest in Iran following the events of the shot down of Flight 752 by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on January 8th 2020 which sparked anger and unrest inside Iran against the Iranian government changed much of the tensions and dynamics in the Middle East and between the United States and Iran. The killings of Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi military leaders who were also victims in the attack by the United States helped to bring Iran and Iraq closer together. Also the Iraqi government ordered that the United States has to withdrawal its forces from Iraq. While the Iran needs soon to prepare itself for the sooner then later political transition after the Death of the current Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran tried to avoid a power vacuum and power struggle which could be used by third power to strike directly against Iran. On the other hand the political system and power in Iran had to change drastically if Iran won't find itself in an internal weakness and struggle which could also be an opportunity for other powers to strike. The memories of the Iran-Iraq war are very strong in Iran and in the Iranian diaspora. The Death of Qasem Soleimani is part of a current power struggle in Iran but also lay out that Iran will be forced even more to secure its influence with their allies. But also show the potential allies Iran would gain, if Iran would push for a more nationalistic agenda. The consequences for the Middle East will be dramatic and the impact will have also big consequences for the Great and Middle powers involved. 2020 could turn out to be an important step for Iran to become an even powerful player in the region but it could transform the country also into a more political free country which let it achieve its strategic goals the country always needed to archive since the rise of the first Persian Empire. Geopolitics and strategy are always forced by geography. Iran had faced since the 19th century a huge treat for the country and tried since the beginning of the 20th century to overcome this dangerous situation. 2020 could be the major turning point that Iran will archive its strategic goals but on the way it could “sacrifice” the Islamic Republic for the greater goal of Iran. The United States want to quit its commitment to the Region and other Western powers need to be prepared for that moment too because if they won't be ready other major Powers like Russia and China would use that window of Opportunity and the EU would become in the end a major victim of its own passive agenda. Ignoring the changes in Iran and the region also in the public debate would weaken the EU but also be a danger for the resilience of the EU and its single member states.
Le forme del vetro: tecnologie a confronto. Produzioni vitree e invetriate in Sicilia, Italia peninsulare, Ifrīqiya e al-Andalus tra IX e XI secolo
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