A Brief Guide to Presidential Elections in Mexico, 2018 By Gustavo Cano, Ph.D. Political Science, Columbia University in the City of New York April 15, 2018* This is a brief guide to the Mexican presidential campaigns and election that shall take place on July 1, 2018. The idea is to offer analytical, practical information about the most important facts and actors of the race, so those who are interested in Mexican politics, can be aware of what is currently going on and, most important, can understand the developing facts during the following ten weeks of the remaining electoral period. Actors: the eternal candidate, l´enfant terrible, the sympathizer no-militant, a national government in a very bad shape, the powerful Fourth Column (El Jefe Diego included), organized crime, fake news, the upcoming Congress and, of course, the unpredictable Amigo Donald. At the end of the writing you will find a set of illustrative institutional references, and the dates for the presidential debates. Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO, El Peje) Coalition “Juntos Haremos Historia” (Together We Will Make History) MORENA-PT-PES The eternal candidate, this is the third time in his life that he is a presidential candidate. He also has been a member of three different political parties during his life: The PRI, The PRD, and now Morena. He is the most experienced candidate in the Mexican presidential elections in 2018, and probably in the whole history of the country. Currently he is the frontrunner, and he has the power to set up the candidates´ agenda as a whole. Topic that he decides to deal with, topic that other candidates, and even the federal government, talk about. It does not matter what he says or does, up to know he does not lose any ground regarding the public´s preference. His main fear is to lose the elections through fraud. This fear is one of the main driving forces behind his current strategy of accepting alliances with practically anybody, at any level. He has incorporated into the wide spectrum of Morena-sponsored candidacies (or into his relatively well-organized army of collaborators) ladies and gentlemen from every other political party, friend or foe, Catholic or not, and even people with doubtful reputation that he still has not met personally. The idea is not only to increase the probable 1 number of votes on July 1st, but also to extend at a national level his network of anti-fraud watchdogs the day of the election. He currently is above the mark of 30 points regarding voters´ preference (without considering the undecided). Day after day he becomes a strong favorite to win the race, to the extent that now he starts to talk about controlling the Congress and the Senate, mostly with the aim to implement his anti-corruption/impunity agenda in National politics. He appears to have a fair share of support within the business community, and has channeled to his advantage the fed up of the people related to failed politics and policies of the national government, and the ruling party, the PRI. AMLO is the passion candidate: people love him, and people hate him too. Although he has a great propaganda machine working against him 24/24, he has learned (more or less) to avoid getting mad whenever he hears something he does not like. He is now telling all the people, all the media, all the time: Love and peace to everybody!!! As the current frontrunner, he is more assertive, and tends only to defend himself when he is attacked by other candidates, but rarely takes the initiative to attack. Each time that Anaya and Meade get into a fight, he knows that he is adding tiny, solid, fractions of points to his preference numbers from the electorate. In this election, most voters who have decided to vote for this or that candidate will hardly change his/her vote throughout the campaign trail. This is, unless something spectacular or extraordinary takes place. AMLO´s constituency is ´very´ hardcore, and is ready for any spectacular, horrible, and shameful revelation(s) to occur in the following weeks. The electoral shielding of AMLO´s constituency is very strong, a direct product of almost 18 years of continuously running for president. AMLO´s voters do not get scarred anymore about AMLO´s negative past, present or future that his opponents try to picture on him. Calderón´s negative facts on AMLO while campaigning became an awful reality under his own presidency, as it also happened with El Presidente Peña Nieto. This is, most Morena sympathizers have seen that Calderón failed as president, and Peña Nieto too, preceding a campaign of forecasting fears and future disasters if AMLO would get elected. This time is different, the fear strategy does not seem to work anymore as it used to work, at least with Morena´s hardcore constituency. Which is large, by the way. In the last ten weeks of campaign, the only thing he has to do is to hold on into his current level of preference among the electorate. This implies that in the three upcoming electoral debates, he must keep the calm, and keep on with the right political mood which currently works for him: to exploit what he would do in the short term once he wins the election; and to be honest, realistic, and highly rational whenever he addresses issues that he does not agree with. Character explosions full of passion has proven politically disastrous for him in the past. 2 Fraud against him still is possible and probable, though. El Bronco´s last-minute, beyondthe-deadline, approved independent candidacy is a clear sign that the establishment will try to do anything to undermine his chances to win the presidency, and/or a comfortable majority in Congress. Ricardo Anaya Coalition “Por México al Frente” (The Front for Mexico) PAN – PRD – MC Ricardo, l´enfant terrible Anaya, is a young, hardcore panista-man whose biggest accomplishment so far is to have taken control of the PAN out of the hands of the former president Calderón. Which is a big accomplishment, by the way. His pragmatic alliance with the pseudo-leftist PRD is oriented to try to steal preferences from Morena, and not to arrive in a weak position in both chambers of the legislative right after elections. However, the alliance is weird, and speaks more of a moribund PRD in the national stage that takes desperate measures to survive, than that of an innovative rightwing all-inclusive umbrella panista political pragmatism. Main distinctive of Ayala: his youth, and his clever, ironic, and efficient way of approaching politics. He includes in his persona the deep-thinking style of doing politics of the former panista mogul Castillo Peraza; the cruel pragmatism of his former boss and idol, Calderón; the lightness, candid, and intense human rationality of Fox; and the honesty, rightness, and heroic portrait of Maquío. 101% panista, in other words. Even if we wins or loses this election, his control of the PAN appears to be a lasting, and powerful one. If Anaya loses this election, chances are very high for him to win the 2024 presidential race, caeteris paribus. Currently he has the 20-25% of the electorate support (without considering the undecided). And things can get better: he is the only candidate whose preferences have grown in a significant manner in the last weeks. Anaya is currently working boldly to consolidate his hardcore constituency in a voting bloc; he tries hard to steal votes from Meade; he tries hard to earn the hearts and minds of the undecided, and he defends himself from the internal bleeding that Margarita Zavala (the independent rightist, former member of the PAN, and wife of the former president Calderón) represents for his campaign. Little or nothing can he do to earn confidence (and take away votes on July 1) from the mainstream left, the Morena constituency. Still, the influence of the former president Calderón in the PAN guarantees an uphill battle within the party for Anaya during the current presidential race. The dominant strategy of Anaya is to push down Meade to reach AMLO. If momentum arrives, Anaya can take advantage of any show of weakness of AMLO, and could get into a neck to neck race towards the end of the campaign trial. If this is the case, the role of Margarita Zavala could become essential for Anaya to win or not the presidency. 3 The federal government plays against Anaya, accusing him (without any solid proof yet) of money laundering. This is a highly distractive move for Anaya but, up to now, the more the federal government gets involved in the electoral process, the stronger Anaya becomes. It also exists the scenario in which, at the end of the race, many priistas who may perceive that Meade will arrive nowhere, would exert their “useful vote” for Anaya. These would be mainly priistas who would do literally anything in their hands to prevent AMLO´s arrival to power. This very last drive could help Anaya to win the presidency. José Antonio “Pepe” Meade Coalition “Todos por México” PRI – PVEM – PANAL (Everybody for Mexico) Pepe has a solid trajectory of high profile office tenures in the governments of the panista Calderón, and the priista Peña Nieto. When he was chosen the presidential candidate on behalf of the PRI, his popularity sailed around the 3-5% in terms of public preference. He is a sympathizer, non-militant of the PRI, a fact that has become the principal challenge during his political campaign. He has tried very hard to sell the electorate that he is a citizen candidate, who has nothing to do with the PRI in terms of its corrupt, unpunished, and cynically muddy past… it has not worked very well, so far. He also has tried very hard to sell himself to the PRI militant in terms of confidence and popularity, with a meagre outcome so far. He is not the favorite of the political bosses of the PRI, who see in his failed political bet on the presidency a golden opportunity to get rid once and for all of Luis Videgaray, the powerful Minister of Foreign Affairs. Pepe was chosen candidate by the weakest president in the modern history of Mexico, whose popularity is currently half of that of El Presidente Trump in the U.S. Pepe also carries on his back the burden of federal policies that have affected the life of the average Mexican: el gasolinazo (January 2017, gas prices soared 20%), which Mexicans tend to relate to his tenure as Minister of Finance of El Presidente Peña Nieto. Pepe currently is in a distant third place in the race, with 14-19% of the electoral preference (without considering the undecided). There are two ways for him to get to the presidency: the Disney´s promise, and the nuclear option. The Disney´s promise means that if he plays by the book, he will win the race. And well… even in this world, odds are well against Pepe. Whatever he does to attack Anaya may help AMLO, and vice versa. His proposals are interesting, but offer continuity with an economic model that has not worked during the last 30 years. His speeches dance around a future that has not arrived in the last 30 years. Whenever he tries to improvise, he falls into AMLO´s agenda. He challenges the other two candidates to this or that, but the other candidates do not take very seriously his proposals. In TV shows, panistas and members of the green party have the spotlights, and do a surreal job trying to defend him, but rarely a big boss from the PRI 4 becomes part of these media exercises. Last, but not least, the get-out-the-vote strategy of Meade during the campaign is surreal: he tries to get the vote for the PRI trying to sell to the people that he is not from the PRI. Or, like one friend recently told me: he is trying to put aside to the party, so the party can win. A tough sell in electoral times, certainly. He has ten weeks to overcome Anaya and AMLO, this is, by the end of April, his popular preference should be around 22-24%, by the end of May 27-29%, and by the end of June 31-33% (without considering the undecided). This is really difficult considering that the big priista bosses, who control the hardcore political militants of the party, does not allow the bases to grow, fully support, or just get along with the candidate. Momentum regarding this aspect is yet to be seen. Then the federal government is also intervening in the campaign, trying to indict publicly Anaya under laundering money charges. Anaya has defended himself very well, adding points to his cause. This is, it seems that Pepe cannot control all the powerful actors and institutions that affect directly the development of his campaign. The result of this can be seen clearly in raw numbers: since the beginning of the electoral process, in December 14, 2017, he has not left the third place of the race. Then we have the nuclear option. Under this scenario, the only thing that Pepe has to do is to get close enough to the first place at the end of June. If the difference is no larger than 56%, the political operators of his team face an interesting option: electoral fraud. A little, but effective one. The type of fraud does not matter, it can even be cynical, no problem. This option assumes that the federal government controls the electoral authorities to the extent that any investigation about any fraud would arrive nowhere. This option also assumes that there is an unlimited (federal) budget to spend in the campaign, and not only in the probable fraud. Otherwise, how on earth can Pepe´s numbers get so close to the leading candidate at the end of June? If there is unlimited budget, surveys during and at the end of the race are also not a problem in today´s Mexico. Manipulative numbers can be bought by the dozens… Only very few survey companies do an incorruptible job down here. The only way for Pepe to increase his chances in real terms is that both, AMLO and Anaya to constantly lose ground practically in a simultaneous way in terms of electoral preference, which is almost impossible to happen. Mostly because every single time that Pepe points out a negative aspect of AMLO or Anaya, the average voter relates more his remarks with political defects or disasters of El Presidente Peña Nieto, or with active and corrupt priistas in federal or state governments, or both… 5 The Others The Fourth Column This is a very selective group of businessmen and politicians who have strong interests to keep the economic and political status quo. These people are the direct beneficiaries of an open economy, the El Presidente Peña state reforms, the new Mexico City airport, the North America Free Trade Agreement, foreign investment, etc. For them, the Neoliberal promises of an increasing flow of income, rising wealth, and high quality of life have become a beautiful reality. They certainly have very little to do with the other 99% of Mexicans… One of the most notable political operators of the group is El Jefe Diego. Mr Diego Fernández de Cevallos, has become a power broker, a pragmatic panista whose political actions and sayings tend to be… well, just spectacular. He was the political candidate of the PAN in 1994. Right after the assassination of Colosio (the leading priista candidate), El Jefe Diego disappeared from the campaign trial. Weeks and weeks without doing anything during campaign time. He definitely played very well to lose the presidential elections. But he won huge shares of power by becoming the main and only deal maker between the priistas and the panistas during many years. Then his law firm has become one of the most successful institutions to win cases (and a lot of money) mainly against the federal government. Then he was kidnapped, but everything went OK at the end. Now he reappears in national politics by being one of the most important advisors to Anaya. But he also attends, happily and openly, to the birthday celebrations of Pepe Meade, and Carlos Salinas de Gortari. “If they invite me, I go,” he argues. The role of the Jefe Diego in the current elections seems to be the following: If Anaya wins, he guarantees to Anaya that his victory will be respected. He also guarantees to the Fourth Column that their interests will remain practically intact, and most members of the current national government (the corrupt ones, of course) will remain immune to any legal allegation of any wrongdoing during their office tenure. The favorite candidate of the Fourth Column is Pepe Meade, however, thanks to El Jefe Diego, Anaya is a viable option too. The Fourth Column will do whatever it takes to defend their interests. They have the means, the contacts, and the know-how. They also rely on and/or have strong influence in Pepe Meade, Anaya, Margarita Zavala, el Bronco, the current National government, and the electoral authorities… Just like the good old days, in which the PRI used to control everything in the electoral process. The main difference today is that the Fourth Column takes (very rational) decisions based more on economic interests than political, and that they control everything in the presidential electoral process, with exception of the final outcome, so far. 6 The flow of power in modern Mexico circulates mainly through economic interests. For the average powerful Mexican politician, politics is now just a mean to materialize economic interests and exert power, legally or not. Current elections are part of this flow of power. Independent Candidates Margarita Zavala, the wife of the former president Calderón and hardcore panista, left the PAN as soon as she realized that there was no way for her to become the presidential candidate of the party. Margarita is part of the political establishment of the country. She has no chance at all of winning anything in this election. However, she can take away priceless votes from the Anaya constituency, which could become decisive in a close race between Anaya and AMLO. She also faces an interesting and critical decision after the election: Will she form a new party? Is this the beginning of a split of the right in Mexican politics? If Anaya wins the race, chances are very high this will happen, unless El Jefe Diego intervenes in the decision process. Jaime Rodríguez, El Bronco. Well, El Bronco is, in many aspects, the Mexican Trump. The forced approval of his candidacy is seen as a way to try to steal away votes from AMLO. His intervention in the political debates is a guarantee that they will be anything but boring. El Bronco, a well-known misogynous politician, has the merit of becoming governor of Nuevo León, one of the richest states of the republic. He defeated as an independent candidate to the PRI and PAN in this northern state. He is in the presidential race now against all odds, again. This time, however, El Bronco, has no chance of winning the race, but he can obtain a good number of votes across the northern states, which can be very useful when trying to balance forces against Morena in the forecoming Congress… The Composition of the New Congress Any candidate, in order to really control the destiny of the nation, at least for the very first three years of tenure, needs to control two thirds of both chambers: Congress and Senate. Morena alone is far from that type of legislative control. Its coalition with PT & PES may put AMLO close to that goal, but there is no way to predict the legislative behavior of PES under this circumstance. Indeed, the alliance PES-Morena is less reliable that the alliance PAN-PRD when addressing legislative tasks. For AMLO, in order to materialize his political and policy agendas, definitely he needs to control the legislative. A surprise for Morena in this sense may happen, but it would be that: a surprise. Anaya´s PAN and Meade´s PRI may get important shares of the legislative, but not a majority each. However, PAN and PRI´s joint forces in Congress and the Senate may make a very unhappy tenure to the Peje, at least during the first three years of his presidency. 7 Organized Crime These elections have been by far the most violent elections in the modern history of Mexico. Numbers: almost 50 murdered pre-candidates and candidates from mid-December 2018 to mid-April 2018. At this point of the race, organized crime has the power to decide who runs for what, mostly at local, and state level. This is a serious challenge for the democratic regime. It is plain and simple: if people cannot run for a public job, and be elected for that job, democracy is not/not working. In a worst case scenario, organized crime may also decide about the fate of any presidential candidate in order to protect their powerful interests. And this need to be not a collegiate decision: a single Mafioso group, out of the five most important groups that currently control pretty much of the Mexican territory, can take the decision on its own, and things can get extremely ugly… In the meantime, AMLO, with his anti-corruption campaign platform, touches indirectly the interests of the organized crime, while the rest of the candidates barely touch the topic in their speeches. This is understandable, the organized crime is out of control in Mexico. To the extent that it conforms a parallel state, exerting an unlimited and independent budget, and a strong, well-equipped, army of sicarios and, more frequently, soldiers from the military. In most Mexican territory the organized crime rules through murder, corruption, and impunity after 12 years of failed security policies. 200,000 - 400,000 deaths are the silent witnesses of this horrible governing fiasco. The next presidency will be extremely challenging, and something (effective) needs to be done regarding organized crime. Donald Amigo Well, El Presidente Trump is a little bit insane. He is also unpredictable, and anti-Mexican. It´s like the wild card of a mucho-loco game. Anything goes with El Presidente. Sending happy American troops to Mexico if AMLO wins the race? Why not? Canceling the NAFTA deal one day, and three weeks later trying frenetically to renew the deal? Why not? Demanding the new Mexican president to pay for the wall or else? Why not? There is no way, and it really makes no sense trying to predict or to reason what is next with El Presidente Donald. Social Media & Fake News Social media is widely used by Mexicans 24/24. Fake news are booming in many aspects in Mexican society, and electoral information is not the exception. Mainly through social media, indeed. In accordance to verificado.mx, the most important sites that lead the dissemination of fake political news in these elections are, in facebook: Nación Unida, Argumento Político, Amor a México, and Zócalo Virtual. In the web: El Mexicano Digital.com; TodoInforme.com; Argumento Político.com/.org; NoticiasOcultas.net; FisgonPolitico.com; and NacionUnida.com. It will be very interesting to read the scholar 8 works about how the spreading of fake news affected or not the final results of the elections, essentially the presidential one. Governors´ Races In accordance to sinembargo.mx, up to mid-April, the electoral preference regarding the governors´ race favors strongly the following coalitions or political parties: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Chiapas – Morena-PES-PT: Rutilio Escandón Cadenas Mexico City – Morena-PES-PT: Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo Guanajuato – PAN-PRD-MC: Diego Sinhué Rodríguez Jalisco – MC: Enrique Alfaro Ramírez Morelos – Morena-PES-PT: Cuauhtémoc Blanco Bravo Puebla - Morena-PES-PT: Miguel Barbosa Huerta & PAN-PRD-MC-local parties: Martha Erika Alonso 7. Tabasco – Morena-PES-PT: Adán A. López Hernández 8. Veracruz – Morena-PES-PT: Cuitláhuac García Jiménez & PAN-PRD-MC: Miguel Ángel Yunes Márquez 9. Yucatán - PAN: Mauricio Vila Dosal With exception of Veracruz and Puebla, it seems that all the other races are pretty much defined. Cero governor posts for the PRI. Practical References Presidential debates, 2018: 1. Mexico City, April 22, 20 hrs. 2. Tijuana, May 20, 20 hrs. 3. Mérida, June 12, 21 hrs. Presidential terms: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Carlos Salinas de Gortari Ernesto Zedillo Ponce de León Vicente Fox Quezada Felipe Calderón Hinojosa Enrique Peña Nieto PRI, 1988-1994 PRI, 1994-2000 PAN, 2000-2006 PAN, 2006-2012 PRI, 2012-2018 9 Congress, most important forces, out of 500 positions: 2000-2003: PRI 211; PAN 207; PRD 50 2003-2006: PRI 224; PAN 151; PRD 97 2006-2009: PAN 206; PRD 127; PRI 106 2009-2012: PRI 237; PAN 143; PRD 70 2012-2015: PRI 212; PAN 114; PRD 104 2015-2018: PRI 203; PAN 108; PRD 52; Morena 50 Senate, most important forces, out of 128 positions: 2000-2006: PRI 59; PAN 45; PRD 17 2006-2012: PAN 52; PRI 35; PRD 31 2012-2018: PRI 55; PAN 34; PRD 19 Mexican Political Parties, National Level MC – Movimiento Ciudadano Morena – Movimiento de Renovación Nacional PAN – Partido de Acción Nacional PANAL – Partido Nueva Alianza PES – Partido de Encuentro Social PRD – Partido de la Revolución Democrática PRI – Partido Revolucionario Institucional PT – Partido del Trabajo PVEM – Partido Verde Ecologista * The original version of this paper was presented by the author at the conference: “México 2018: Las elecciones más extrañas en la historia moderna del país”. The conference took place at the Universidad Iberoamericana, Campus León, on April 12, 2018. The author is part-time professor of the Department of Economics and Administration at the same university. 10