Using age-related infection rates derived from serological data in available deterministic and specially developed stochastic simulation models, it has been possible to establish that the basic reproductive rates for South African Territory (SAT) type foot and mouth disease virus in buffalo (Syncerus caffer) are high. The models predict that there is a periodicity of infection within herds and possibly the population as a whole. Thus, buffalo herds are likely to be more infectious at some times than at others. However, because most infections in buffalo are inapparent, such episodes are difficult to identify. There is wide intratypic variation within the SAT type virus populations circulating in buffalo. This was determined by sequencing part of the 1 D gene of buffalo isolates and establishing antigenic profiles with neutralising monoclonal antibodies and conventional antisera.
