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PREDICTION OF MW= 6.2 KOJOOR EARTHQUAKE IN NORTH OF IRAN, USING EMPIRICAL GREEN FUNCTIONS

PREDICTION OF MW= 6.2 KOJOOR EARTHQUAKE IN NORTH OF IRAN, USING EMPIRICAL GREEN FUNCTIONS

Abstract
In this paper potential use of the EGF (empirical green function) approach as a prediction tool in strong ground motion seismology is presented. This analysis was carried out on Kojoor earthquake. Here thirty possible rupture models are generated on causative fault’s plane to account for source variability. These models were based on previous study of this area and without including any knowledge of the source characteristics prior to the occurrence of this earthquake. The strong ground motion prediction provides an accurate, justifiable means to characterize site and path effects, and therefore allows the uncertainties in the predicted hazard to be because of unresolved issues about the earthquake source such as the geological constraints of a particular fault and details about the physics of earthquakes. It is found that the actual ground motion recordings fell within the range of synthesized ground motions. To conclude, it is possible to make reasonable strong ground motion “pred...

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