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2011, Annals of Geophysics
Bollettino Di Geofisica Teorica Ed Applicata
Quantifying probabilities of eruption at a well-monitored active volcano: an application to Mt. Etna (Sicily, Italy)Boll. Geofis. Teor. …
Quantifying probabilities of eruption at a well-monitored active volcano: an application to Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy)2012 •
2009 •
2011 •
The statistical analysis of volcanic activity at Mt Etna was conducted with the twofold aim of (1) constructing a probability map for vent opening of future flank eruptions and (2) forecasting the expected number of eruptive events at the summit craters. The spatiotemporal map of new vent opening at Etna volcano is based on the analysis of spatial locations and frequency of flank eruptions starting from 1610. Thanks to the completeness and accuracy of historical data over the last four centuries, we examined in detail the spatial and temporal distribution of flank eruptions showing that effusive events follow a nonhomogenous Poisson process with space-time varying intensities. After demonstrating the spatial nonhomogeneity and the temporal nonstationarity of flank eruptions at Etna, we calculated the recurrence rates (events expected per unit area per unit time) and produced different spatiotemporal probability maps of new vent opening in the next 1, 10 and 50 years. These probabilistic maps have an immediate use in evaluating the future timing and areas of Etna prone to volcanic hazards. Finally, the results of the analysis of the persistent summit activity during the last 110 years indicate that the hazard rate for eruptive events is not constant with time, differs for each summit crater of Mt Etna, highlighting a general increase in the eruptive frequency starting from the middle of last century and particularly from 1971, when the SE crater was formed.
Bulletin of Volcanology
Integration of stochastic models for long-term eruption forecasting into a Bayesian event tree scheme: a basis method to estimate the probability of volcanic unrest2013 •
Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
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Customary Tenure and Large-Scale Land Acquisitions in the Global South: Issues and Redressal Approaches in Governance Policy2021 •
The emerging literature on large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) vis-à-vis customary land tenure in the global south focuses on whether they deliver promised benefits. It uncovers how constitutional provisions and statutes to protect the marginalised are realised at the national level. The trend of evaluation this essay picture is the tendency to instrumentalise the customary repertoire under neoliberal globalisation, trade liberalisation and modernisation process. The glorified land dispossession programmes that global capitalist accumulation with neo-colonial underpinnings pursue is akin to the extractive economy that does not shy away from coercive land grabs. The challenges of LSLAs to overcome the programme inefficiency requires bridging the utilitarian foundation of neo-liberalism with restored dignity of customary practices if short-term band-aid solutions are to be avoided.
ATOS 16,16-18 E A PITONISA DE DELFOS: ARQUEOLOGIA, HISTÓRIA E RELIGIÃO - ACTS 16:16-18 AND THE PYTHONESS OF DELPHI: ARCHAEOLOGY, HISTORY AND RELIGION
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