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Štampa:
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Časopis izlazi četiri puta godišnje
Broj 1-2 str. 1 - 118
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Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 1-118
SADRŽAJ
Lidija Madžar
THE PHILLIPS CURVE OF THE SERBIAN ECONOMY..................7
Vesna Martin
THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS ON FINANCIAL
AND PRICE STABILITY: CASE OF SERBIA...................................31
Vladimir Zakić i Marija Nikolić
NASTANAK I RAZVOJ ŠTEDNO-KREDITNIH ZADRUGA U
SRBIJI..................................................................................................53
Slavoljub Vujović i Željko Bjeljac
SPECIFIČNOSTI TURISTIČKE PONUDE: PROIZVOD ILI
USLUGA..............................................................................................69
Dejan Molnar i Nikola Amidžić
INDEKS REGIONALNE KONKURENTNOSTI EU KAO
INSTRUMENT ZA ANALIZU REGIONALNIH DISPARITETA.....91
Milan Vujović
PRIKAZ KNJIGE DR VUKA OGNJANOVIĆA: „IZAZOV
ODRŽIVOG RAZVOJA: IDENTITET SRBIJE OD IMATI DO
BITI“..................................................................................................105
IN MEMORIAM:
PROF. DR SRETEN VUKOVIĆ.............................................................111
UPUTSTVO ZA AUTORE.....................................................................115
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 1-29
Originalni naučni rad
THE PHILLIPS CURVE OF THE SERBIAN ECONOMY+1
Lidija Madžar*2
lidi.madzar@gmail.com
Abstract
The Phillips curve is a classic economic model that, in its original form,
describes the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. This curve
indicates the sacrifice that society must make in order to implement successfully
the policy of disinflation. The purpose of this paper is to define the Phillips curve of
the Serbian economy, as well as to determine whether this model is still applicable
in the circumstances of large external negative shocks, general global instability
and frequent government interventions. This article traces the Phillips curve of
Serbia’s economy from the democratic changes in society, which corresponded to
the correlated change in the course of domestic economic policy in the direction
of privatization and transition to a market economy, in the period from 2003 to
2022. The paper concludes that the Phillips curve of Serbian economy has shifted
to the left, and that it seems that in turbulent times it is not possible to achieve an
effective trade-off between inflation and unemployment. This thesis is confirmed
by the conducted correlation analysis, the Granger causality test and the Johansen
cointegration test, which indicated that there is neither a long-term nor a causal
relationship between the observed variables. It is an overly simple model that
cannot encompass all the complexities of contemporary market trends, which is
why there is a need to supplement it with other relevant economic analyses.
Key words: Phillips curve, Serbian economy, inflation, unemployment
JEL CLASSIFICATION: E12, E24, E31
This paper is a part of the results within the research project II U-001/20, “Assessment of the impact of Covid-19
on social and economic development” of the Faculty of Finance, Banking and Auditing, Alfa BK University,
Belgrade
2*
Faculty of Finance, Banking and Auditing, Alfa BK University, Belgrade
1+
7
Lidija Madžar
The Phillips curve of the Serbian economy
INTRODUCTION
The concept of the Phillips curve has been a central topic of
macroeconomic research ever since its appearance in the late 1950s. The
famous economist William A. Phillips first introduced the Phillips curve in
1958, originally defining it as the inverse relation between the unemployment
rate and the growth rate of nominal wages as a proxy variable for inflation. The
importance of the Phillips curve is reflected in the connection of monetary,
i.e. nominal variables such as prices, wages and inflation with real variables
related to the functioning of the economy. In other words, it explains the impact
of changes in prices and produced quantities on real income, and indicates
the mutual interaction between price decisions and real economic activities
in the production process. In this way, the Phillips curve essentially illustrates
the impact of economic activities on monetary variables such as prices,
wages and inflation and on real variables such as output and unemployment,
which is of substantial interest for economic decision-makers in a society. By
changing monetary and fiscal policy aimed at influencing aggregate demand,
policymakers can opt for high inflation and low unemployment and vice versa.1
Assuming that policymakers can take macroeconomic measures that will affect
aggregate supply and demand, their moves can have different implications for
the level of real gross domestic product (GDP) and the inflation rate. While
the original contribution of William A. Phillips is reflected in the identification
of the relationship between the level of unemployment and wage growth, the
modern monetary interpretation of this curve treats deviations of inflation
from its long-term stable trend as a consequence of stagnation in the economy,
inflationary expectations and price shocks.2
The concept of the Phillips curve has undergone several transformations,
along with the emergence and development of new schools of economic
thought. This curve was later modified into an inverse interdependence of
the unemployment rate and the inflation rate, which finally gave economic
policy the possibility of a choice, i.e. a trade-off between different levels of
unemployment and inflation. This point of view was principally based on
the Keynesian concept. The policy implications of the Phillips curve various
interpretations ranged from the possibility of fine-tuning the real economy
to other extreme situations in which the managing the aggregate demand
proved to be ineffective in influencing changes in real variables. While the
1
2
Manjku (2005), p. 786
Eser et al. (2020), p. 4
8
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 1-29
first scenario implied the establishment of a stable trade-off between higher
inflation and lower unemployment and vice versa, the second scenario
excluded the possibility of a compromise between these variables.3 These
outcomes also indicated the different rate of sacrifices that a society has
to make in implementing a disinflation policy. Underlying these different
outcomes are different assumptions about the role of inflationary expectations
and price rigidity. In its second phase, the Phillips curve was complemented
with adaptive expectations, while in its third stage of evolution it was enriched
with inflationary expectations.4
This article is structured as follows: Section 1 explains in more detail
the emergence and evolution of the application of the Phillips curve concept
in theory and practice. Section 2 provides an overview of the most recent
literature on the Phillips curve, while Section 3 discusses the data used and the
methodology applied in this study, with particular emphasis on methodological
changes in the coverage of unemployment that could somewhat obscure the
results of this analysis. Section 4 deals with the construction and analysis of
the Phillips curve of the Serbian economy, while the last section concludes the
article and provides some significant and useful insights into this issue.
1. THE EMERGENCE AND EVOLUTION OF THE PHILLIPS
CURVE
Until the appearance of the Phillips curve, there was no defined
relationship between prices and real GDP in the economic theory. Either prices
or real output were fixed, and changes in aggregate demand were conditioned
exclusively by one of these categories, while holding the assumption of
constancy of the other one. Examining the history of monetary doctrine and
looking for precursors to its somewhat more modern formulations in works
prior to William A. Phillips’ pioneering article in 1958, Humphrey5 finds
earlier interpretations of the Phillips curve in articles by many authors such
as David Hume. Other initial works on the relationship between inflation and
unemployment include articles by Irving Fisher, who first formulated this
statistical relationship, Jan Tinbergen, who provided the first econometric
estimate of the Phillips curve equation, and Paul Sultan, who first presented
Motyovszki (2013), p. 1
Jakšić (2006), p. 181
5
Humphrey (1985a), pp. 17-24
3
4
9
Lidija Madžar
The Phillips curve of the Serbian economy
this relationship graphically. Other pioneers of the Phillips curve include
Henry Thornton, John Stuart Mill, Lawrence Klein, A. J. Brown and others.
In this sense, the Phillips curve represents a revolutionary model that
simultaneously captured inflation (changes in the general price level) and real
economic flows (primarily expressed by unemployment). In its original setting,
the Phillips curve appeared as a mathematical equation fitted to annual data
on percentage changes in nominal wages and the unemployment rate for the
case of British economy from 1861 to 1957. The resulting curve was convex
and had a negative slope, which intersected the horizontal axis at a certain
positive level of unemployment. With this, William A. Phillips proved that
there was a positive relation between inflation and real economic activities, i.e.
production6, at the same time confirming the relationship between monetary
and real variables in the short term. This further meant that when the labour
market was in equilibrium, there were no pressures on nominal wages, while
this condition corresponded to certain positive equilibrium unemployment. At
the same time, equilibrium unemployment was positive because in the economy
of every country there is always a certain short-term frictional unemployment
that occurs owing to job search, job change, transaction costs, entry and/or
exit of people from the labour force and payment of unemployment benefits.
Frictional unemployment typically occurs in growing and stable economies,
and this is the point to which the economy will return if policymakers stop
maintaining labour market imbalances by fixing excess labour demand.7
With the growth of aggregate demand in the economy, there will be
an excess labour demand, which will lead to a drop in the unemployment rate
below its equilibrium level and which will further put pressure on wage and
price growth. However, since the market is a self-regulating mechanism, after
that unemployment will return to its equilibrium level, while wages and prices
will stabilize. The Phillips curve is convex and has a negative slope because
the excess labour demand leads to an increase in real output, a decrease in
unemployment and an increase in wages. Wage growth further puts pressure
on prices, causing inflation. By the late 1960s, there was a general consensus
among economists and policymakers that the Phillips curve represented a
reliable trade-off between inflation and unemployment, offering them many
opportunities for short-term managing of the country’s economic trends.
Considering the aforementioned compromise, the only thing left for the policy
makers was to choose the optimal combination of inflation and unemployment
6
7
Phillips (1958), pp. 283-299
Humphrey (1985b), p. 4
10
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 1-29
rates, taking into account acceptable social costs.8 After this moment, the
concept of the Phillips curve began to change along with the emergence of
doubts about the possibility of an effective compromise between inflation and
unemployment. This concept was soon challenged by the view of monetarists
who argued that it was applicable only in the short term, but not in the long
term. Proponents of monetarism further claimed that in the long term prices
have no effect on the unemployment rate because unemployment otherwise
returns to its natural level, which is why the long-term Phillips curve appears as
a vertical line. This thesis soon became known as the natural rate hypothesis.9
Further changes in the Phillips curve were primarily driven by the
emergence of the Theory of rational expectations, which emphasized that
the systemic policies of macroeconomic stabilization and demand managing
cannot affect real economic activity. In addition, it was considered that there
are errors in expectations that can lead to deviations of output and employment
from their normal equilibrium level. In such cases, for example, policymakers
could stabilize the price level to prevent the occurrence of unexpected inflation
that leads to errors in price perception. On the other hand, they could also
direct their efforts towards minimizing random and erratic variations in
monetary variables. In this way, policy makers would certainly influence the
reduction of forecasting errors, as well as the uncertainties that accompany
the economic policy conducting of each country. Over time, the Philips curve
theory was complemented by the ideas of the Natural-rational expectations
school, which advocated the use of microeconomic structural policies with the
aim of permanently reducing the unemployment rate. Proponents of this school
of thought believed that such microeconomic policies, by improving product
efficiency and labour market performance, could also reduce the natural rate
of unemployment and shift the Phillips curve to the left. A similar position
was expressed by those economists who, at the beginning of the 1960s, were
in favour of conducting macroeconomic structural policies with the aim of
shifting the Phillips curve to the left. In the end, the story of the Phillips curve
ultimately appeared as a trade-off between those who believed in its effects
and those who strongly disputed it.10 Despite all, in its finality, the Phillips
curve is still a useful tool that describes the relationship between inflation
and unemployment as the most important indicators of a society’s economic
performance.
Motyovszki (2013), p. 5
Hetzel (2013), p. 100
10
Humphrey (1985b), pp. 20-21
8
9
11
Lidija Madžar
The Phillips curve of the Serbian economy
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
Numerous published studies have addressed this research question,
suggesting quite mixed research results so far. Blanchard, Cerutti and
Summers11 investigated the relationship between inflation and unemployment
by constructing a Phillips curve on the example of 20 developed recessionary
countries over the last 50 years, finding that the impact of unemployment on
inflation for a given expected inflation rate declined until the early 1990s,
followed by a period of its relative stability. In estimating the Phillips curve,
the authors used a Time-Varying Approach (TVA) that takes into account the
impact of the unemployment gap on inflationary expectations. They find that
in times of low inflation there are also low inflation expectations, shifting the
“accelerationist Phillips curve”, in which changes in unemployment affect
changes in inflation, to a more stable “level Phillips curve,” in which the
unemployment gap affects the level of inflation. They also find that for most
of the countries surveyed, the slope of the Phillips curve has decreased over
time, with most of its decline occurring from the mid-1970s to the early 1990s.
Since then, its ratio has remained stable, including the period of the recent
Global Financial and Economic Crisis in 2007 and 2008.
Olivier Blanchard12 subsequently extended this analysis by investigating
the impact of past inflation and expected long-term inflation on its current
level. More precisely, the author investigates the impact of past inflation on
current inflation and short-term inflationary expectations, as well as the impact
of lagged inflation on long-term inflationary expectations on the example of
the same developed recessionary countries from the previously mentioned
article. Blanchard found that the relationship of the Phillips curve is now close
to level-level one, and that the relationship between the level of the inflation
rate and the stable long-term expected inflation depends on the level of the
unemployment rate. This article also found that the slope of the Phillips curve
rose from the 1960s to the late 1970s, then steadily declined until the late
1980s and remained relatively stable and low since then. Therefore, its current
form poses serious challenges for the creators of future monetary policy.
Eser et al.13 revisited the structural Phillips curve, highlighting the
challenges in recovering structural parameters from the reduced form of its
Blanchard et al. (2015)
Blanchard (2016), pp. 31-34
13
Eser et al. (2020)
11
12
12
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 1-29
estimation and relating the reduced Phillips curve to the (semi)structural
models used by the European Central Bank (ECB). After that, the authors
determine the slope of the structural Phillips curve using cross-country
variation and high-frequency monetary policy surprises in the form of
external policy instruments. The authors conducted a panel regression using
quarterly data on the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and three
measures of economic slack: a) the output gap, b) the unemployment gap,
and c) the unemployment rate. Based on the results of a simple regression
that uses data from the Eurozone and from a Dynamic Panel Regression of
Fixed Effects that uses data on 18 countries of the Eurozone, the results of the
analysis indicate statistically significant estimates of slack coefficients in all
regressions conducted. In their second approach to establish the causal effect
of slack on inflation, the authors use exogenous variations in slack caused
by monetary policy shocks and conclude that there is a negative relationship
between the unemployment gap and HICP inflation. Finally, the paper draws
the conclusion that the structural Phillips curve, which describes the causal
relationship between slack and inflation in the entire economy, can be a useful
tool for considering the transmission of ECB monetary policy measures.
Smith et al.14 also revisited time variation in the Phillips curve, using
new Bayesian Panel Methods (BPM) with breakpoints on disaggregated data
for the US and European Union (EU) countries. It is a more flexible approach
than the conventional panel data method, which is nevertheless more efficient
than estimating separate time series regressions for each individually observed
region or industry branch. This approach allows them to estimate accurately
both the number and timing of breaking points in the Phillips curve. This
methodology further allowed them to identify the existence of clusters of
industries, cities or countries whose Phillips curve shows similar patterns of
instability. The authors found evidence of a pronounced flattening of the Phillips
curve for the US sectorial data and poorer EU members, while the flattening is
weaker in the case of Measurement System Analysis (MSA)-level data and for
the Phillips wage curve. Smith et al. first established the existence of at most
two structural breaks, the first in the early 1970s and the second around 2000,
while the flattening of the Phillips curve from the beginning of this century
was more pronounced for goods than for services. Finally, the authors found
that there is a convergence of the slope coefficients of the Phillips curve in the
EU member states, which is consistent with greater geographic mobility of the
population. Overall, these data indicate the existence of a break in the Phillips
price curve, which remains relatively steep in times of crisis.
14
Smith et al. (2023), pp. 1-35
13
Lidija Madžar
The Phillips curve of the Serbian economy
Regarding the study of the Phillips curve in Serbia, Furtula et al.15
tested the empirical Phillips curve in Serbia and Romania for the period from
1996 to 2015 using several Bayesian linear regression models. They find a
positive correlation between inflation and unemployment in both countries,
which contradicts the economic theory of the Phillips curve and conclude that
the model of the traditional Phillips curve exists only in the short run in both
considered countries. The authors also applied both the Granger causality test
and the Johansen cointegration test to the data from both countries, suggesting
that there is a positive long-term cointegration relationship between inflation
and the unemployment rate. On the other hand, Mihajlovic16 investigates the
validity of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve model in Serbia with marginal
costs, providing unequivocal evidence that the growth of inflation cost could
be reduced by the policy of increasing productivity. Using quarterly data for
the period from 2008 to 2019 and applying the Nonlinear Autoregressive
Distributive Lag (NARDL) method, the author examines the direction and
statistical significance of the relationship among real marginal costs, the
output gap and the inflation rate in Serbia, as well as the presence of longterm asymmetry in the reaction of inflation on these variables in periods of
economic expansion and contraction. His findings indicate that the NARDL
method with the output gap provides evidence in favour of the expansionary
monetary policy of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) since it can stimulate
economic activity without creating significant pressures on inflation.
Finally, evidence from the Western Balkans region suggests that there
has been acceleration in inflation driven by global commodity price shocks,
a strong recovery from the pandemic and longer-lasting supply bottlenecks.
Minasyan et al.17, using the augmented Phillips Curve Panel Method and
the Structural VAR (SVAR) model, conclude that international food prices
affect domestic inflation, and that inflation in the region, in addition to
external shocks, is strongly influenced by domestic factors, especially by
aggregate demand shocks. The authors use the reduced Phillips curve model,
augmented with international food and energy prices in order to monitor the
overall dynamics of inflation in the region, and the SVAR model to determine
the relative contributions of different shocks to inflation in each country.
Ultimately, they find that international food prices play an important role in
tracking inflation in the region, and that domestic food inflation determines
Furtula et al. (2018), pp. 40-48
Mihajlovic (2020), pp. 83-95
17
Minasyan et al. (2023), pp. 1-5
15
16
14
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 1-29
inflationary expectations. This further, in combination with high persistent
inflation, implies that international food price shocks can have a large and
lasting impact on inflation in the countries of the Western Balkans, as well as
that its reduction would have to be gradual.
3. DATA AND METHODOLOGY
Annual data on inflation rate were taken from the World Bank database.
The article traces the trend of the inflation rate for the period from 2003 to
2022. The World Bank measures the rate of inflation by the Consumer Price
Index (CPI), which indicates the annual percentage change in the basket of
goods and services costs of the average consumer. For this purpose, the World
Bank usually applies the Laspeyres formula.18 The Laspeyres index is obtained
as the ratio between the costs of a basket of goods and services calculated at
current prices and the costs of the same group of goods and services calculated
at prices from the base period, multiplied by 100. This indicator can be written
as follows:19
where
Pi0 are the prices of goods and services in time ,
Pit are the prices of goods and services in time , and
Qio are the quantities of goods and services in base period .
Annual data on unemployment rate trends are taken from the Statistical
Office of the Republic of Serbia (SORS) Labour Force Survey. The paper
considers the trend of the unemployment rate in the period from 2003 to 2022.
SORS defines in detail the unemployed population as persons aged 15 to 74 who:
a) were not employed in the observed week; b) who are currently available for
work and who are ready to start working as paid employees or self-employed,
and c) who are actively looking for a job in terms of undertaking activities on
18
19
The World Bank Data (2023)
Nuffield Foundation (2011)
15
Lidija Madžar
The Phillips curve of the Serbian economy
that plan or have already contracted, i.e. found a job on they will start working
no later than for a period of three months from the given week of observation.
On the other hand, the new definition of the employed population includes
persons from 15 to even 89 years of age who during a given week worked for
at least one hour for earnings or some form of income, including unpaid family
workers, as well as persons who have a job or business from which they was
temporarily absent. In addition, seasonal workers who did not work during the
observed week, but for whom it is certain that they will return to their seasonal
jobs, are also treated as employed individuals.20 While it seems that the criteria
for acquiring the status of an employee are quite flexible and broadly defined,
the criteria for being classified as unemployed are quite restrictive.21
The Labour Force Survey (LFS) in Serbia was introduced in 1994, while
its data became internationally comparable only in 2004. After that, in 2008,
the structure of the Survey questionnaire was changed, with new introduced
questions that contributed to aligning the concept of employment in Serbia
with the recommendations of the International Labour Organization (ILO).
This led to a noticeable growth of some borderline forms of employment,
primarily due to better coverage of family workers and people starting their
own business, but also to methodologically induced improvements in all key
indicators of the labour market.22
However, the objective limitation of this study is reflected in the fact
that since the beginning of 2016, SORS began to apply a new assessment
methodology, more precisely a calculation of weights by which the sample
is extrapolated to the population level. Although that change broke the
comparability of previous and subsequent data series, SORS also provided
revised data for 2014 and 2015.23 On this occasion, the definition of employees
also underwent its fundamental changes, which included in the labour force
contingent all those persons who performed some paid work (in money or
in kind) for at least one hour in the observed week. However, this method
of measurement systematically reduces the problem of unemployment and
creates a blurred picture of the real state of society. At the same time, it seems
that in this way, official domestic statistics favour the very concept of a flexible
understanding of the labour market and employment.24 In the general and
professional public, heated discussions are usually held about the published
Republički zavod za statistiku RS (2023), p. 77
Bradaš (2017), p. 13
22
Arandarenko (2011), p. 19
23
Republički zavod za statistiku RS (2016)
24
Katić (2018)
20
21
16
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 1-29
data on labour market statistics. Moreover, while the general public doubts the
data on the unemployment rate, expert circles dispute the data on the increase in
employment, primarily pointing to the inconsistency of employment indicators
with macroeconomic and fiscal trends such as GDP and productivity.25
Among other things, since 2015, SORS has been conducting its Labour
Force Survey in the form of continuous research on a randomly selected
sample of households. This means that every week during the calendar year is
considered as a reference period. In this Survey, a week is defined as a period
of seven days, lasting from every Monday to every Sunday. At the same time,
the survey period lasts two weeks after the observed week.26
Finally, SORS also switched to a new, redesigned Survey methodology
from January 1, 2021, in accordance with the new Regulation of the European
Parliament and the Council. While defining the basic contingents of the
workforce, international recommendations and definitions were used that
ensure comparability with similar data from other countries.27 Some of the
most important methodological changes refer to the exclusion of persons who
produce goods and services for their own consumption, and to a lesser extent
for market exchange from the contingent of employees, as well as to measures
that ensure better monitoring of the growing flexibility of employment, more
precise detection of obstacles in the labour market and in absence from work,
better coverage of the structure and content of the business of self-employed
persons, etc.28 These methodological changes could certainly influence
the decline of the official unemployment rate, and thus the raise the official
employment in Serbia.
However, although these data are not mutually comparable due to
explained methodological changes, based on the available official statistical
data, some orientation conclusions about the unemployment trend in Serbia
can still be drawn. According to the author’s knowledge, these are also the only
official data available, which is why there is still no more consistent and uniform
data on the state of the domestic labour market. In addition, SORS delivers
these official data to numerous international organizations such as Eurostat,
International Labour Organization (ILO), World Bank, International Monetary
Fund (IMF), Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
Bradaš (2017), p. 1
Republički zavod za statistiku RS (2023), p. 76
27
Republički zavod za statistiku RS (2023), p. 3
28
Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (2021)
25
26
17
Lidija Madžar
The Phillips curve of the Serbian economy
(OECD), UNICEF, UNESCO and others.29 Finally, these are the only data
usually used in numerous domestic and international analyses. Unfortunately,
according to the author’s knowledge, SORS has not yet provided long-term
comparable results that would certainly be more valid for the purposes of this
analysis.
4. THE PHILLIPS CURVE OF SERBIAN ECONOMY
The purpose of this paper is to construct the Phillips curve of Serbian
economy, as well as to determine, using the example of Serbia, whether this
concept is still applicable in the circumstances of large external negative shocks,
general global instability and frequent government interventions, especially
when it comes to a developing country. This paper traces the Phillips curve of
Serbia since the democratic changes in society, which were accompanied with
the corresponding change in the economic policy course in the direction of
privatization and transition to a market economy. Compared to the countries of
the EU where at the beginning of 2023 the unemployment rate was on average
6%30, at the moment unemployment in Serbia is still high, with a large number
of people engaged in susceptible, i.e. vulnerable jobs and in the grey economy.
In Serbia, there are huge inequalities in household disposable income. The
European Anti-Poverty Network estimated that in 2018, 25.5% of people lived
at risk of poverty31, while UNICEF estimated that around 7% of the population
lived in absolute poverty in 2020.32
Despite significant economic and fiscal reforms, the country still
faces a low pace of real economic growth and a series of social problems that
prevent its more serious convergence towards the European average. Public
enterprises are still poorly managed and inefficient, while the low quality of
public services is also observable. Although the general business environment
is solid, especially for foreign investors, the state retained its influence in
the economy. Privatization is still proceeding at a modest pace, but the fiscal
stabilization policy has been relatively successful, enabling the Government
to implement significant anti-Covid-19 measures at the level of the entire
economy in its fight against the emerging recession. The level of public debt
increased significantly, especially during Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic in
2020, but its share in the country’s GDP is still expected to be below allowed
60% in the coming years. At the same time, Serbia’s economy also recorded
29
Republički zavod za statistiku (2015), p. 3
18
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 1-29
a relatively small decline of only 1.5% during that year, as a consequence of
the introduced anti-Covid-19 fiscal and monetary measures and the specific
structure of the country’s economy. In addition, the low level of economic
growth since the last Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 can be attributed to
the poorer quality of institutions, the weaker rule of law, but also the high level
of emigration due to the lack of economic and employment opportunities.33
The article traces the trend of unemployment and inflation rates in
Serbia in the period from 2003 to 2022, for which there are available data.
The average unemployment rate in the observed period from 2003 to 2022
was 16.76%, while after several fluctuations it decreased from 14.6% in 2003
to 8.9% in 2022 (a decrease of 5.7%). On the other hand, the average inflation
rate was 6.98%, achieving its growth by as much as 4.72%, from 9.88% in
2003 to 14.6% in 2022, primarily due to the outbreak of the Ukrainian War,
which disrupted global supply chains and triggered imported inflation in the
Serbian economy.
The statistical decline in unemployment was undoubtedly partially
influenced by the country’s economic growth and the creation of new jobs.
However, unlike the impact of general macroeconomic trends, it is difficult to
quantify and analyse the impact of other factors on employment, employees
and business operations. Serbia has also experienced an advanced phase of
transition and enterprise restructuring, as well as several methodological
changes in its Labour Force Survey. Based on unadjusted data from the LFS,
it follows that the previous increase in unemployment was caused by the
privatization and restructuring of companies that began in 2007. In addition,
the long-term impact of the Global Financial Crisis from 2007 and 2008 had
a dominant effect on the former unemployment growth in Serbia. However,
due to mentioned methodological changes in the statistical coverage of
unemployment, it is not possible to make a clear distinction between the current
“real” and “methodological” employment growth.34 Theoretically, all these
trends could increase unemployment and reduce inflation during the period of
economic restructuring. Besides, according to official data, it seems that the
Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic did not have significant negative impacts on
registered employment.35 These data were also supported by the analysis of
the International Labour Organization, which indicated that in the middle of
2020 there were almost 11,000 fewer registered unemployed persons than in
BTI Transformation Index (2022)
Arandarenko (2011), pp. 19-20
35
Vlada Republike Srbije (2021), p. 29
33
34
19
Lidija Madžar
The Phillips curve of the Serbian economy
December 2019. In addition, the movements of financial aid for unemployed
persons in 2020 did not differ much from those from the same period in 2019.36
Kovačević and Stančić37 recognized the rise in oil, food and energy
prices, disruptions in supply chains and general, the growth in aggregate demand
in post-pandemic era among the most significant causes of inflation. However,
in addition to these external shocks, inflation in Serbia was also generated by
the action of some other, internal factors, as well as by the characteristics of
an economy that already has deep-rooted experience with high inflation. Here,
above all, we mean changes in the level of aggregate supply, disruptions in
supply, changes in productivity, changes in labour supply, and the like. The
Ukrainian conflict further worsened the situation by leading to uncertainty,
supply disruptions, the suspension of exports of basic foodstuffs and an
embargo on exports from Russia, which is Europe’s largest supplier of energy
and many other goods. In addition to these factors, we should also mention the
high participation rate of food expenditures, state regulations and price control
of food and agricultural products, as well as the largest recorded drought in
2022 as the most significant triggers of domestic inflation.
Here, it should also be noted that special caution is needed in the
interpretation of data on the unemployment rate, given that the SORS has
meanwhile changed the methodology for the inclusion of employed persons,
according to which persons who work under special contracts are also counted
as employed persons. More precisely, as already mentioned this applies to
persons on temporary and casual jobs, those who are engaged through youth
cooperatives, seasonal workers, etc. In addition, Serbia is also facing a massive
wave of emigration, which obviously reduces its unemployment, while it is
also known that the National Employment Service (NES) deletes from the
records those people who have refused the offered job, which also affects the
reduction of unemployment.38 For example, in 2022 alone, the NES deleted
284,885 persons from its records, or an average of 23,740 individuals on a
monthly basis, which represented a decrease of 0.8% compared to the same
period of the previous 2021 year.39 In addition, the Law on Employment and
Unemployment Insurance of the Republic of Serbia (RS) itself, in its articles
86 and 87, provides for the deletion from the records of an unemployed person
due to non-compliance with the legal provisions on the obligations of the
International Labour Organization (2020), p. 31
Kovačević and Stančić (2023), pp. 18-20
38
BBC News na srpskom (2019)
39
Nacionalna služba za zapošljavanje (2022), p. 10
36
37
20
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 1-29
unemployed. According to the current Law, the person is obliged to respond
to the National Employment Service within the prescribed time limits, to
provide proof of active job search, to accept the offered mediation for suitable
employment, to report to the recommended employer, to accept the individual
plan of employment and active employment policy measures, to respond to the
call of the NES officer, and others.40
Following the approach of Paul Sultan,41 who was the first to publish
a graphical version of the Phillips curve, and Furtula et al.42 this article relates
the level variables of the inflation rate and the unemployment rate with the aim
of finding their graphical interpretation. After this step, the paper applies both
the Granger causality test and the Johansen cointegration test to determine
whether these variables cause each other and whether between them there is a
long-term relationship. Bearing in mind the mentioned facts, the constructed
Phillips curve of the Serbian economy took the following form shown in
Figure 1.
Figure 1. Phillips curve of the Serbian economy in the period from 2003 to 2022
Source: Author’s calculation and figure
As can be seen from the figure above, the Phillips curve of the Serbian
economy does not have the expected regular downward shape at all. Contrary
Službeni glasnik Republike Srbije (2021), articles 86 and 87
Sultan (1957)
42
Furtula et al. (2018), pp. 40-56
40
41
21
Lidija Madžar
The Phillips curve of the Serbian economy
to all expectations, it meanders moving from right to left and has the shape of
a loop. While 2015 was the year with one of the lowest inflation rates (1.39%)
and one of the highest unemployment rates (17.7%), one of the highest
recorded inflation rates of 14.6% and the smallest unemployment rate of 8.9%
are perceived for 2022. Also in this period there were years like 2005, 2006
and 2011 with very high both rates, and there were also periods in which both
variables moved in the same direction (2003-2005, 2006-2007, 2010-2011,
2013-2016, 2017-2020 and 2020-2021). The Figure 1 also indicates the need
to implement a policy of disinflation, and if that is not possible, at least to
stabilize prices.
In addition, the conducted correlation analysis between inflation and
unemployment indicated the presence of a weak positive and statistically
insignificant correlation (, ), denying the original interpretation of the Phillips
curve on the inverse relationship between the observed variables. In the
paper, the Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) test was applied to
the observed variables with the aim of determining the stationarity of these
otherwise short time series. The initial hypothesis of the KPSS test starts from
the assumption that the observed time series is stationary, whereby the results
of the conducted test at the significance level of 5% and 10% are given in
Table 1.
Table 1. Results of the KPSS stationarity test of observed variables
Variable
KPSS test LM-statistic
Unemployment rate
0,1589
Inflation rate
0,1345
Source: Author’s calculation
Conclusion
Stationary at 5% and 10%
Stationary at 10%
Since the KPSS test showed the stationarity of the both observed
variables at the significance level of 10%, the Granger causality between them
was finally determined. It is well known that the Granger causality test can
only be performed on stationary time series.43 The starting hypothesis of the
Granger causality test is that there is no causal relation between the observed
variables. The results of the applied test indicated that none of these variables
causes the other one in the Granger sense at the level of 5% (Table 2).
Table 2. Granger causality test results
43
Furtula et al. (2018), p. 48
22
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 1-29
The null hypothesis
F-statistic
Inflation does not Granger cause 1,2000
unemployment
Unemployment does not Granger 2,7964
cause inflation
Source: Author’s calculation
Probability
0,3324
Conclusion
No relationship
0,0977
No relationship
Thus, the applied Granger causality test also indicated the absence of a
causal relationship between inflation and unemployment in Serbia. Finally, the
Johansen cointegration test was applied in the analysis in order to determine if
there is any cointegrating relationship between the observed variables and the
data series at the level. The results of the conducted test indicated that there
was no long-term correlation between unemployment and inflation in Serbia,
implying the disputability of the Phillips curve original model in the case of
Serbian economy.
The results of this study fit quite well within the findings of Furtula et
al. who, contrary to theoretical postulates, find a positive correlation between
inflation and unemployment in Serbia and Romania and indicate that the
Phillips curve exists only in the short term. However, unlike these authors, this
paper does not find their long-term cointegration relationship. The results of the
conducted research partially fit in the findings of Smith et al.45 who observed
patterns of volatility and steepening of the Phillips curve in times of crisis. On
the other hand, the findings of this study are not fully consistent with the results
of the analysis by Blanchard, Cerutti and Summers46; Blanchard47, and Eser et
al.48 who nevertheless found a negative relationship between unemployment
and inflation. However, in a slightly longer time frame, Blanchard, Cerutti and
Summers49 and Blanchard50 reveal instability, that is, periods of growth and
decline in the slope of the Phillips curve.
44
Furtula et al. (2018), p. 40-56
Smith et al. (2023), pp. 1-35
46
Blanchard et al. (2015)
47
Blanchard (2016), pp. 31-34
48
Eser at al. (2020)
49
Blanchard et al. (2015)
50
Blanchard (2016)
44
45
23
Lidija Madžar
The Phillips curve of the Serbian economy
CONCLUDING REMARKS
It seems that the Phillips curve of the Serbian economy generally
shifted to the left during the discussed period. In the period from 2003 to 2012,
periods of unidirectional and non-unidirectional inflation and unemployment
trends alternated, turning the Phillips curve into a kind of loop. On the other
hand, in the period from 2012 to 2020, there was a gradual decline in the
unemployment rate, with a relatively stable and low inflation rate and low
inflationary expectations. This period also coincides with the officially recorded
and proclaimed period of development of the domestic economy. However, as
it was already mentioned, we need a special caution in the interpretation of
unemployment data considering the large emigration of the Serbian population,
as well as the changed methodology of calculating employed persons. It also
appears that since 2020 Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic and the negative
supply shock, there has been an upward shift in inflation expectations. This
situation was especially complicated by the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis.
Figure 1 also shows periods of rising unemployment-inflation rates, which
contradict the Phillips curve theory saying that there is a trade-off between
unemployment and inflation.51 As already mentioned, the period from 2012
to 2020 was accompanied by a drop in unemployment and low inflation,
which could perhaps be partially attributed to a successful monetary policy
regime that reduced people’s inflationary expectations, but also to increased
worker productivity. Correlation analysis, Granger causality test and Johansen
cointegration test also indicated that there is no long-term or causal relationship
between inflation and unemployment in Serbia. To summarize, it seems that
in turbulent times it is not possible to achieve an effective trade-off between
inflation and unemployment.
In any case, this Phillips curve indicates that expected inflation and
negative supply shocks do indeed cause the increase of inflation. However,
we can also conclude that the Phillips curve is still a too simple model to be
able to encompass all the complexities of the modern market economy, and
that it must be supplemented with other relevant analyses, especially in the
circumstances of large external negative shocks, general global instability and
frequent governmental interventions. From this arises the question to what
extent it can be useful for forecasting inflation. Therefore, there is no unique
consensus among economists and policy makers on the utility and relevance of
51
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2008)
24
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 1-29
the Phillips curve framework. However, Phillips curve is still one of the most
important relationships between inflation and unemployment that serve to
design contemporary economic policies worldwide, although it represents at
the same time one of the most controversial topics in modern macroeconomics.
FILIPSOVA KRIVA PRIVREDE SRBIJE
Rezime
Filipsova kriva je klasičan ekonomski model koji u svom originalnom
obliku opisuje inverzni odnos između inflacije i nezaposlenosti. Ova kriva
ukazuje na žrtvu koju društvo mora da podnese da bi se uspešno sprovela politika
dezinflacije. Svrha ovog rada je da definiše Filipsovu krivu privrede Srbije, kao
i da utvrdi da li je ovaj model još uvek primenjiv u okolnostima velikih spoljnih
negativnih šokova, opšte globalne nestabilnosti i čestih vladinih intervencija. Ovaj
članak prati Filipsovu krivu privrede Srbije od demokratskih promena u društvu
kojima je korespondirala i odgovarajuća promena kursa ekonomske politike u
pravcu privatizacije i tranzicije ka tržišnoj privredi, u periodu od 2003. do 2022.
godine. U radu se zaključuje da se Filipsova kriva Srbije pomerila ulevo, kao i
da se čini da u turbulentnim vremenima nije moguće ostvariti efikasnu nagodbu
između inflacije i nezaposlenosti. Ovu tezu potvrđuju i sprovedena korelaciona
analiza, Grangerov test uzročnosti i Johansenov test kointegracije koji su ukazali
na to da nema ni dugoročne, ali ni uročno-posledične veze između posmatranih
varijabli. Radi se o isuviše jednostavnom modelu koji ne može da obuhvati sve
kompleksnosti savremenih tržišnih kretanja, zbog čega se i javlja potreba za
njegovom dopunom drugim relevantnim ekonomskim analizama.
Ključne reči: Filipsova kriva, privreda Srbije, inflacija, nezaposlenost
25
Lidija Madžar
The Phillips curve of the Serbian economy
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Pregledni članak
THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS ON FINANCIAL
AND PRICE STABILITY: CASE OF SERBIA
Vesna Martin*1
martinv0803@hotmail.com
Abstract
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine had far-reaching global consequences, including a significant increase in energy and food prices, which led to an
increase in inflation and inflationary expectations. The current economic uncertainty has contributed to a slowing of global growth while tightening local and
global financing conditions. The aforementioned events had an impact on price
and financial stability, both of which are vulnerable to increased geopolitical risk.
Previously achieved macroeconomic stability had the effect of reducing the impact of geopolitical tensions on Serbia, which managed to maintain and strengthen financial stability. Serbia experienced an increase in inflation as a result of
the energy crisis, with the majority of this increase due to imported inflation, on
which the National Bank of Serbia’s monetary policy measures had no influence.
The analysis showed that the transmission mechanism of monetary policy was effective through the interest rate channel and that financial stability was preserved,
as indicated by the results of the systemic stress indicator and the financial stress
index.
Key words: price stability, financial stability, geopolitical tensions
JEL CLASSIFICATION: E52, E58, G21, G32.
National Bank of Serbia, Division for Macroprudential Supervision, Financial Stability Department. The views
expressed in the paper are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the official view of the National
Bank of Serbia.
1*
31
Vesna Martin
The impact of geopolitical tensions on financial and price stability...
INTRODUCTION
The global balance has been significantly disrupted as a result of
geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, which began in February
2022. The energy crisis has raised significant concerns about the security of
energy and food supplies. Such developments influenced the rise in inflation
above the targeted levels, as well as the rise in inflationary expectations.
In order to combat high inflation, the majority of central banks tightened
monetary conditions, resulting in higher borrowing costs on both domestic
and international markets. Increased uncertainty has contributed to a slowing
of global growth as well as a reduction in economic growth projections for the
coming years.
None of this went unnoticed in Serbia, which, like the rest of the
world, is dealing with multiple crises - geopolitical, energy, and health-related
(COVID-19). Because of the previous period’s macroeconomic stability and
the significant aid packages approved for the corporates and households in
2020 and 2021, the consequences of the Ukrainian conflict have left fewer
consequences in Serbia than in most European countries. Serbia experienced
an increase in headline inflation as a result of the energy crisis, with the highest
growth being due to imported inflation, on which monetary policy has no
influence. On the other hand, indicators of liquidity, profitability, and capital
adequacy in the banking sector are at high levels. The quality of the banking
sector’s assets has not been harmed, even after the moratorium ended as part
of a package of economic measures for the corporates and households, as
evidenced by the historically low movement of non-performing loans. So far,
geopolitical tensions have not jeopardized the Republic of Serbia’s financial
stability. Nonetheless, it is critical to maintain the banking sector’s resilience
to potential future shocks.
The goal of this research is to determine how geopolitical tensions
affect financial and price stability in Serbia. A literature review follows the
introductory presentation. The third and fourth sections of the paper examine
financial and price stability in times of increased risk and uncertainty at the
global level, respectively. The final section of the paper provides an overview
of future action proposals, while the concluding remarks summarizes the main
points of this paper.
32
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 31-52
1. LITERATURE REVIEW
There is a wealth of research that examines the effects of geopolitical
risks while taking into account how they affect the operation of the entire
economy. According to Song et al.1, it is significant that so many academic
research have examined the effects of geopolitical threats on various sectors
(tourist, government, renewable energy sources) and indicators (economic
growth, investments, trade flows). Plakandaras, Gogas, and Papadimitriou2
claim that geopolitical risk is defined as the impact of an attack on the economy.
As such, it is a rare occurrence that is challenging to empirically quantify and
forecast. Numerous events that raised geopolitical risk have occurred since the
1990s began, including the Arab Spring and concerns over nuclear weapons
between Iran and North Korea3. One of the key factors influencing investment
decisions is geopolitical risk, which may have an impact on financial system
stability, economic growth, and development. Extreme occurrences have been
more frequent since the turn of the century, and there has been a major rise
in geopolitical and health hazards. This has made the world economy and
financial markets more uncertain4.
Numerous authors investigate how geopolitical concerns affect the
financial and commodity markets, as well as how they affect monetary policy
implementation. Because of the aforementioned geopolitical risk, central bank
officials must balance protecting the corporate and the household from rising
expenses with maintaining price stability. Central banks are also examining
the possible effects of price pressures and supply chain disruptions on the
global economic recovery5. According to Wang et al.6, both short-term and
long-term variations in oil prices on the international market may be caused
by geopolitical risk and the unpredictability of global economic policy. The
primary variable determining the fluctuation of crude oil prices is thought to
be this risk. When there were significant political tensions, the dynamic link
between geopolitical events and crude oil price changes revealed significant
volatility7. It is crucial to draw attention to the connection between changes
in crude oil prices and financial liquidity, which exhibits a strong link in the
Song, Y., Chen, B., Wang, X-Y. and Wang P-P., (2022), pp. 2
Plakandaras, V., Gogas, P. and Papadimitriou, T. (2018), pp. 1
3
Lu, Z., Gozgor, G., Huang, M. and Lau, C. K. M. (2020), pp. 98
4
Long, S. and Guo, J. (2022), pp. 12
5
Crow, A. and Saran, S. (2021). pp. 10
6
Wang, Y., Wei, M., Bashir, U. and Zhou, C. (2022a), pp. 8
7
Li, F., Huang, Z., Zhong, J. and Albitar, K. (2020), pp. 7
1
2
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The impact of geopolitical tensions on financial and price stability...
context of geopolitical risk8. The government must create a sufficient regulatory
mechanism in order to ensure stability and minimize price volatility for all
energy sources9.
Using nonparametric quantile-on-quantile regression analysis,
Bossman, Gubareva, and Teplova10 examined how the conflict between Russia
and Ukraine’s affected the movement of exchange rates in relation to the
US dollar. The analysis revealed that there is an asymmetrical relationship
between geopolitical risk and exchange rates, and it also suggested that the
euro and the Swiss franc would make appealing hedging currencies for a
currency portfolio that is vulnerable to geopolitical risk. The conflict between
Russia and Ukraine is cited by Wang et al.11 with a large rise in total price
volatility in the commodity markets (from 35% to 85%). At the same time, the
movement of crude oil prices turned into a net transmitter of the geopolitical
crises’ spillover, while wheat and soybeans turned into a net receiver. High
volatility in the commodity markets was prompted by substantial geopolitical
tensions.
Various researchers examined past geopolitical risks and their effects
on various markets and nations in addition to the analysis of the current
geopolitical risk. For the period from May 2007 to August 2018, Alqahtani
and Klein12 examined the long-term effects of oil prices, price volatility, as
well as the effects of regional and international geopolitical concerns on the
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock market. The aforementioned authors
calculated the effect of geopolitical risks on each of the GCC member nations
(Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates)
using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. According to their
analysis, all nations displayed resilience on a global scale, but their responses
to shocks brought on by geopolitical unpredictability varied. On the other
hand, Elsayed and Husam Helmi13 used the ADCC-GARCH model to examine
how geopolitical risk affected the volatility of the financial markets in Middle
Eastern and North African (MENA) nations. According to their analysis,
Qatar, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates were
the nations that conveyed the effects of geopolitical threats to other MENA
Xie, H., Khurshid, A., Rauf, A., Khand, K. and Caline, A. (2022), pp. 15
Khan, K., Su, C-W., Khurshid, A. and Umar, M. (2022), pp. 6
10
Bossman, A., Gubareva, M. and Teplova, T. (2023), pp. 7
11
Wang, Y., Bouri, E., Fareed, Z. and Dai, Y. (2022), pp. 18
12
Alqahtani, A. and Klein, T. (2021), pp. 22
13
Elsayed, A. and Husam Helmi, M. (2021), pp. 15
8
9
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Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 31-52
nations the most. The stock markets of the BRICS nations—Brazil, Russia,
India, and China—were studied by Balcilar et al.14 to see how they responded
to the presence of geopolitical risk. The study’s findings revealed that the stock
markets of those nations did not respond uniformly.
Uncertainty in US politics has been shown to have less of an impact on
the emergence of geopolitical risk than the corona virus, which is unquestionably
a significant source of danger. Because the virus behaves differently, it
is important to consider both the immediate and long-term effects of the
virus15. Given that financial stability strongly affects how monetary policy is
implemented, the stability of the US financial system has a considerable impact
on how the European Central Bank conducts its monetary policy16. Energy
and food costs increased, leading to higher inflation and higher inflationary
expectations, which was affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Such developments have prompted central banks to tighten monetary policy in
response. In the next section, we’ll analyze how Serbia’s financial and pricing
stability is impacted by geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
2. IMPACT ON FINANCIAL STABILITY
The Republic of Serbia’s financial system stability has been preserved
in light of the new circumstances of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which began
in February 2022. Given the high share of foreign-owned banks in the banking
sector, the potential risks here relate to the transfer of risk to Serbia’s financial
sector via exposures to foreign banks. At the end of the fourth quarter of
2022, 17 foreign banks (out of a total of 21) were operating in the Republic
of Serbia’s financial system, accounting for 76.2% of total financial sector
assets. Nevertheless, even though customer deposits are the most common
source of funding for banks in Serbia, fundraising from parent banks is less
prevalent. Loan-to-deposit (LtD) ratio was 0.85 in March 2023 (0.81 at the
end of the fourth quarter 2022), indicating that banks in the Republic of
Serbia rely more on domestic, stable sources of funding, such as deposits. The
recent strengthening of the domestic deposit base has significantly reduced
this risk, as has the possibility of financial shocks being transmitted from the
Balcilar, M., Bonato, M., Demirer R. and Gupta, R. (2018), pp. 298
Sharifa, A., Alouib, C. and Yarovaya, L. (2020), pp. 7
16
Curi, C. and Murgia, L. (2023), pp. 4
14
15
35
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The impact of geopolitical tensions on financial and price stability...
parent countries of foreign-owned domestic banks. Furthermore, domestic
deposits are safe because clients’ dinar and foreign currency deposits in banks
are insured up to 50,000 euros in dinar equivalents, in accordance with the
provisions of the Deposit Insurance Law17. Keeping potential risks in mind,
the National Bank of Serbia acted quickly to create conditions for financial
stability. The domestic AIK bank completed its acquisition of Sberbank Serbia
in early March 2022, and this bank continued to operate under the name Naša
AIK. The transaction was completed on time, allowing the bank to halt the
outflow of deposits that had occurred as a result of depositors’ increased
perception of risk in light of the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The trends in the systemic stress indicators and the financial stress
index indicate that the Republic of Serbia’s financial stability was preserved
and strengthened during geopolitical tensions. The systemic stress indicator is
a tool for identifying periods of crisis in the domestic financial system, as well
as identifying increased levels of systemic stress in the Republic of Serbia and
evaluating the main components of that stress. As a result, this indicator serves
as an important quantitative decision-making tool during the crisis period,
as well as important information during the implementation of measures to
achieve and maintain macroeconomic stability. The systemic stress indicator
reflects financial stress movements in twenty-five indicators grouped into
the six most important segments of the Republic of Serbia’s financial system
(the foreign exchange market, government securities market, money market,
capital market, banking sector, and international environment) (Chart 1). The
indicator of systemic stress was 0.020 at the end of March 2022, immediately
after the start of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which is higher
than the value at the end of 2021 (0.006), but lower than the value during the
pandemic (in March 2020, 0.037). If we examine the data from January 2008
to December 2022, we observe that the indicator of systemic stress recorded
17
Deposit Insurance Law (RS Official Gazette Nos 14/2015, 51/2017 and 73/2019)
36
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 31-52
УНУТРАШ
Chart 1. Indicator of Systemic Stress
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10
2008
2009
2010
Systemic risk
Money market
International environment
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Foreign currency market
Capital market
Indicator of Systemic Stress
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Securities issued by governement
Domestic bank sector
Source: National Bank of Serbia, https://nbs.rs/en/indeks/index.html
significant values during crisis periods. The highest value (0.284) was recorded
in February 2009, when the impact of the global economic crisis was most
pronounced in the Republic of Serbia. Increased values of this indicator were
recorded in September 2011 (0.100), as a result of international instability
caused by the European Union’s sovereign debt crisis, and then in early 2015
(the indicator of systemic stress was 0.066 in February of that year), as a result
of Greece’s debt crisis. Following that, the systemic stress indicator had a low
and stable value until the beginning of 2020 and the Corona virus pandemic.
In addition to the systemic stress indicator, the National Bank of Serbia
employs the financial stress index in its analyses, which was designed to identify episodes of elevated financial stress, as well as their duration and culmination. The financial system’s operation cannot be monitored and analyzed using
a single indicator due to its complexity. As a result, the financial stress index
includes variables that are critical to the functioning of the financial sector
and are relevant when examining real economic activity. The financial stress
index includes the spread between the BEONIA interest rate (the weighted average interest rate on overnight loans in the Serbian interbank money market)
and the National Bank of Serbia’s key policy rate, the volatility of the stock
market, the volatility of the exchange rate, and the spread between the yield
on government bonds and the National Bank of Serbia’s key policy rate. The
financial stress index, which is based on the above said indicators, represents
the sum of the standardized deviations of the aforementioned variables. If the
37
УНУТРАШЊА УПОТРЕБА
The impact of geopolitical tensions on financial and price stability...
Vesna Martin
Chart 2. Index of Financial Stress and GDP
(in %)
18
10
2
-6
-14
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Exchange rate volatility
Stock market volatility
EURO EMBIG
Gap between key policy rate and BEONIA
Index of Financial Stress
GDP rate (real term)
2021
2022
Source: National Bank of Serbia, https://nbs.rs/en/indeks/index.html
index is positive, it means the market is experiencing above-average financial
stress, while a negative value means the financial system is experiencing
below-average financial stress (Chart 2).
Based on the movement of the financial stress index from the first
quarter of 2006 to the fourth quarter of 2022, it can be seen that it recorded
positive values from the first quarter of 2007 (with the exception of the third
quarter of that year) to the fourth quarter of 2012, indicating that the financial
health can be evaluated negatively during the mentioned period. During the
time period under consideration, the index ranged from 0.27 (second quarter
of 2007) to 12.44 (fourth quarter of 2008). The index’s highest value, achieved
in the fourth quarter of 2008, reflects the effects of the global economic
crisis. The index recorded negative values in the remaining period, indicating
that financial health can be assessed positively; that is, the index’s achieved
values indicate a below-average level of financial stress. According to the
aforementioned developments, the domestic financial system experienced
below-average levels of financial stress during the Corona virus pandemic, as
well as during a period of pronounced geopolitical tensions.
The Republic of Serbia was able to preserve key macroprudential
indicators while maintaining financial stability during geopolitical tensions.
The banking sector, which accounted for 91.1% of total asset value at the
end of the fourth quarter, continued to operate profitably while maintaining
liquidity and capital adequacy indicators. The return on assets was 1.9% and
the return on capital was 13.9% at the end of the fourth quarter 2022 (they
38
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 31-52
were 1.2% and 7.8%, respectively, at the end of 2021). At the end of 2022, the
average monthly liquidity ratio was 2.2, which was higher than the regulated
minimum of 1.0. The high capital base contributed to capital adequacy
indicators exceeding regulatory minimums: at the end of the fourth quarter
2022 regulatory capital to risk-weighted assets was 20.2% and regulatory Tier
1 capital to risk-weighted assets was 18.8% (regulatory minimums are 8%, and
6%, respectively). To preserve capital, the National Bank of Serbia adopted a
Decision on temporary measure regarding the calculation of bank capital18 in
June 2022. The aforementioned decision was made in order to mitigate the
negative effects of changes in the prices of securities on capital as a result
of significant volatility in the international capital market. The temporary
measure is available to commercial banks from June 30, 2022 to December
31, 2023.
To ensure an adequate response and the implementation of
macroprudential policy measures, the main risks to financial stability in
the Republic of Serbia, namely high euroization and a high share of nonperforming loans, should be closely monitored. With the strengthening of
the domestic deposit base, the risk of deleveraging is no longer the primary
risk to which the Republic of Serbia’s financial system is exposed. Credit
euroization was 64.9% at the end of December 2022 (61.7% at the end of
2021), and deposit euroization was 59.9% (59.7% at the end of 2021). The
non-performing loan ratio was extremely low in the last few years, posing
no risk to financial stability. The National Bank of Serbia, on the other hand,
continues to monitor the potential growth of non-performing loans. The nonperforming loans ratio was 3.0% in March 2023, down 0.4 percentage point
year on year and 19.3 percentage point since August 2015, when the nonperforming loans Resolution Strategy was implemented.
The National Bank of Serbia will continue to closely monitor and
analyze domestic and international situations. As before, the Bank will make
timely decisions and take measures to maintain macroeconomic and financial
stability in such uncertain times and with increased geopolitical risks.
18
Decision on temporary measure regarding the calculation of bank capital (RS Official Gazette Nos
72/2022 and 124/2022)
39
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The impact of geopolitical tensions on financial and price stability...
3. PRICE STABILITY DEVELOPMENT
The National Bank of Serbia’s primary objective is to achieve and
maintain price stability, according to the first paragraph of the third article of
the Law on the National Bank of Serbia19. It seeks to ensure financial stability
in addition to its primary objective of preserving price stability, which was
covered in more detail in the previous section of the paper. The National Bank
of Serbia has been employing an inflation targeting strategy since the beginning
of 2009 in order to achieve price stability. The National Bank of Serbia’s stated
monetary policy objective, which is expressed as a percentage change in the
consumer price index on an annual basis, is 3%, with a tolerance band of ±
1.5 percentage points. The National Bank of Serbia utilizes the key policy rate
as the primary tool of monetary policy to carry out reverse repo operations
with a maturity of seven days in order to accomplish the specified objective.
Lending and deposit facilities, required reserves, open market operations and
interventions on the foreign exchange market are additional monetary policy
tools that play a supporting role.
Headline inflation in the Republic of Serbia began to rise in April 2021
(2.8% y-o-y), which is mostly due to the impact of temporary variables such
the increase in vegetable costs and the price of crude oil in the globe, as well as
the exceptionally low base from the same period last year. The drought-related
increase in vegetable prices as of September 2021 was a major factor in the
yearly headline inflation rate exceeding the desired upper limit (5.7% y-o-y).
Cost pressures on the local and global markets were also strengthened. It should
be emphasized that the base inflation, which can be influenced by monetary
policy measures and is determined by the change in the consumer price index
excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, was much lower than the total
in September 2021, coming in at 2.6% year-over-year. Headline inflation in
December 2021 was 7.9% y-o-y, with the movement of food and energy costs
accounting for around 75% of the total. These are variables that monetary
policy cannot affect. In response to these events, the National Bank of Serbia
restrained the expansion of monetary policy while maintaining the stability
of the key interest rates. It implemented this strategy by raising the average
Law on the National Bank of Serbia (RS Official Gazette, Nos 72/2003, 55/2004, 85/2005 – other law, 44/2010,
76/2012, 106/2012, 14/2015, 40/2015 – Constitutional Court decision and 44/2018)
19
40
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 31-52
Chart 3. Movement of core and headline inflation
Chart 4. Projection of headline inflation
(y-o-y rates, in %)
(annual rates, in %)
16
20
14
16
12
10
12
8
8
6
4
4
2
0
2007
0
2009
2011
2013
Core inflation-annual rate
Period average - core inflation
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
-4
Headline inflation-annual rate
Period average -headline inflation
3
6
2021
Sources: National Bank of Serbia and Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia.
9
12
3
6
2022
9
12
3
6
2023
9
12
3
6
2024
9
12
3
2025
Source: National Bank of Serbia,https://nbs.rs/en/indeks/index.html
weighted interest rate during one-week repo auctions where it removes extra
dinar liquidity. The average weighted interest rate at one-week repo auctions
throughout the first nine months of 2021 was 0.11%, whereas it was 0.24% at
the first auction in October and 0.50% at the end of the year.
The annual headline inflation rate for 2022 was over the target for the
entire year and fluctuated between 8.2% y-o-y in January and 15.1% y-o-y
in November and December (Chart 3). Such fluctuations were influenced by
geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, which had an impact on
the sharp rise in energy, food, and raw material prices globally. Along with
the aforementioned factors, the stagnation of global supply chains and the
scarcity of specific industrial raw materials also played a role in the headline
inflation rise. In April 2023 headline inflation was at the level of 15.1% y-o-y.
The dinar’s exchange rate remained relatively stable against the euro, which
helped to keep the base level below the headline inflation rate. Due to the
significant inflow of foreign direct investments, the current account deficit is
entirely covered (according to the National Bank of Serbia, a record inflow
of foreign direct investments of 4.4 billion euros was achieved in 2022, i.e.
4.3 billion euros in net terms). The National Bank of Serbia intervened on the
interbank foreign exchange market by making a net purchase of 1 billion euros
in 2022 as a result of the dinar’s 0.2% increase against the euro (purchases
in the total amount of 3,480 million euros and sales in the total amount of
2,480 million euros). The total foreign exchange reserves at the end of 2022
(19.4 billion euros) were boosted by net purchases on the interbank foreign
exchange market, marking the highest level ever recorded since these figures
have been tracked (since 2020). As a result, one of the crucial indicators in the
fight against shocks was maintained in times of crises.
41
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The impact of geopolitical tensions on financial and price stability...
Inflationary expectations increased as a result of rising inflation. The
National Bank of Serbia started tracking and assessing the inflation expectations
of economic agents (the financial sector, the corporate sector, trade unions, and
households) in January 2009, in accordance with best international practice20.
The financial sector, which is the most representative sector, expects the
annual headline inflation rate to be 8.0% in March 2024 and 5.0% in March
2025, according to the Results of the Inflation Expectations Survey21 from
March 2023. This indicates that both in the short and medium terms, headline
inflation above the upper limit of the inflation target is expected. When the
National Bank of Serbia raised the key policy rate from 1% (the lowest level
under the inflation targeting system) to 1.5% in April 2022, the tightening of
monetary policy officially began. The National Bank of Serbia continued to
raise the key policy rate during all of the board’s remaining meetings, which
reached at 5.0% at the end of 2022. The National Bank of Serbia further
boosted the key policy rate to 6.0% in the first four of the board’s five sessions
in 2023 (the rate was left unchanged in May). The National Bank of Serbia has
a direct impact on minimizing the secondary effects of cost pressures on price
growth through inflationary expectations by tightening monetary conditions.
Additionally, the efficiency of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy
through the interest rate channel is demonstrated by the transfer of the increase
in the key policy rate to interest rates in the money market, loans, and dinar
savings.
Due to lower import inflation, an easing of global cost pressures, and
the impact of previously implemented monetary policy measures, the National
Bank of Serbia reduced its predictions for inflation in 2024 in its Inflation
Report22 dated May 2023. According to the National Bank of Serbia, headline
inflation will be dropping, with a considerable reduction expected in the second
half of 2023, and by the middle of 2024 will have returned to the target range
of 3%, with a tolerance zone of 1.5 percentage points (Chart 4).
In addition to raising the key policy rate, the National Bank
implemented a number of timely measures aimed at limiting price increases in
financial products. The National Bank of Serbia adopted the Decision on the
payment account23 with basic features in August 2022, which stated that the
Martin, V. (2020), p. 65
Results of the Inflation Expectations Survey, National Bank of Serbia, Available at: https://www.nbs.rs/export/
sites/NBS_site/documents-eng/publikacije/io/io_e_03_23.pdf
22
National Bank of Serbia, Inflation Report – May 2023, https://www.nbs.rs/export/sites/NBS_site/documentseng/publikacije/ioi/izvestaji/inflation_report_05_2023.pdf
23
Decision on the payment account with basic features (RS Official Gazette, No. 89/2022)
20
21
42
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 31-52
price of a payment account package with basic services could not exceed 150
dinars per month, and the aforementioned decision specified the guaranteed
content of that basic service package. With this decision, the National Bank
of Serbia prevented an increase in the prices of certain financial services from
causing headline inflation because, prior to the adoption of the aforementioned
decision, certain banks announced an increase in fees for certain payment
account services. Following that, in September 2022, all insurance companies
informed insurance contractors about the procedure for returning a portion
of the motor third-party liability premium as a result of the return of those
premiums to their previous level. Specifically, without the prior consent of the
National Bank of Serbia, the insurance sector’s regulator, insurance companies
increased motor third-party liability insurance premiums by about 22% on
average beginning August 1, 2022. The government of the Republic of Serbia
made a significant contribution to limiting the growth of headline inflation by
adopting measures to limit the prices of basic foodstuffs, petroleum products
and gas, as well as the temporary limitation of excise duties on petroleum
products.
In the light of geopolitical tensions and higher-than-expected headline
inflation, the Republic of Serbia managed to keep its rating one notch below
investment grade. Fitch Ratings kept the rating at BB+ in February 2023,
and Standard & Poor’s at BB+ in April 2023, with a stable outlook for an
increase in the credit rating in the following period. Both agencies stated that
the Republic of Serbia maintained a credible macroeconomic framework
while maintaining an adequate level of foreign exchange reserves as an
important pillar in the domestic economy’s defense against external shocks.
Despite international challenges, the International Monetary Fund confirmed
preserved macroeconomic stability in November 2022 with the successful
completion of the third revision of the Policy Coordination Instrument, which
the Republic of Serbia concluded with the International Monetary Fund in June
2021 for 30 months without using funds. Following that, in December 2022,
the Republic of Serbia signed a Stand-by Arrangement with the International
Monetary Fund, which replaced the previous Policy Coordination Instrument.
The Stand-by Arrangement, which was signed for a two-year period, includes
support for the Republic of Serbia’s economic development and was approved
in the amount of 290% of the Republic of Serbia’s quota in the International
Monetary Fund (about 2.4 billion euros). Economic activity increased (0.7%
in the first quarter of 2023), unemployment is at a record low (9.4% in 2022),
and public debt is under control and below the Maastricht criterion of 60% of
GDP (51.0% of GDP in March 2023).
43
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The impact of geopolitical tensions on financial and price stability...
4. PROPOSALS FOR FUTURE ACTIONS
Due to increased economic and geopolitical uncertainty, as well as
disruptions in the energy and commodity markets brought on by the coronavirus
pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine, the world economy is currently dealing
with high inflation that has reached multi-decade highs in a large number
of countries. In prevous period investors were accustomed to low volatility
because central banks have kept interest rates at historically low levels. With
high levels of capital and significant liquidity reserves, the financial system
remained resilient throughout the epidemic and the crisis in Ukraine. Given
that the influence of geopolitical tensions on financial and price stability was
examined in the previous section, this part of the paper will focus on the study
of proposals for future actions from those two perspectives.
Although the aim of monetary policy is to achieve and maintain
price stability, the aim of macroprudential policy is to achieve and maintain
financial stability. Since macroprudential policy is an area that is always
evolving, the Law on the National Bank of Serbia does not regulate specific
macroprudential policy instruments, as it does with monetary policy
instruments. With this solution, the National Bank of Serbia has the flexibility
to apply macroprudential instruments. However, in an effort to more strictly
regulate this area and make it more accessible to the public, the National Bank
of Serbia published the consultative document Macroprudential Framework24
in March 2015. This document more strictly regulates the objectives, tools,
and decision-making procedure of macroprudential policy in the Republic of
Serbia. The National Bank of Serbia adopted macroprudential policy measures
with the intention of limiting systemic risk, which is the risk of widespread
disruptions in the delivery of financial services brought on by a disruption in
all or a portion of the financial system and which can have serious negative
effects on the real economy.
Macroprudential policy for emerging nations, to which the Republic of
Serbia belongs, should apply sufficient capital buffers and a suitable amount
of liquidity in order to shield those nations from potential global disruptions.
The National Bank of Serbia should keeping capital buffers to maintain the
banking sector’s resistance to shocks from the domestic and international
environment. Capital buffers—macroprudential instruments that represent
24
Macroprudential framework, National Bank of Serbia, https://www.nbs.rs/export/sites/NBS_site/documents-eng/finansijska-stabilnost/macroprudential_framework_201503.pdf
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Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 31-52
additional Common Equity Tier 1 capital that the bank is required to keep
above the stipulated regulatory minimum—were added to Serbia’s regulatory
framework in December 2016 by rules that adopted Basel III standards25. As
of June 30, 2017, banks in the Republic of Serbia must keep following capital
buffers: capital conservation buffer,fwang countercyclical capital buffer, capital
buffer for a systemically important bank and systemic risk buffer26. Given that
the financial system of the Republic of Serbia is incredibly bank-centric, better
capitalized individual banks will result in a stronger banking system and overall
financial system. As seen by previous financial crises, the losses suffered by the
banking industry during a period of declining loan activity following a period
of rapid growth can be very significant. These losses can cause the banking
industry to become unstable, which in turn can cause the actual economy to
contract. This cycle can continue until the banking industry becomes even
more unstable. This connection emphasizes how crucial it is to increase the
banking sector’s capital base during times of noticeable development in the
risk of systemic imbalances spreading. Strengthening the capital base can also
aid in containing excessive credit expansion because capital is an expensive
source of financing, and when economic and financial conditions are unstable,
demand for loans declines as a result of higher loan prices. Stress tests can
be used to examine the banking sector’s resilience to shocks in addition to
ensuring that it has appropriate capitalization. The presumptions upon which
macroprudential stress assessments are based have been tightened due to
growing geopolitical uncertainty. Macroprudential stress tests, which are
conducted by the National Bank of Serbia on a quarterly basis, reveal that even
in the worst-case scenarios, the banking industry is appropriately capitalized
and liquid.
Regarding suggestions for monetary policy implementation
improvements, it should be noted that the framework for how central banks
operate today has been greatly enlarged to include aspects like digitalization,
climate change, and increasing pressures from the residential real estate
market. The effects of climate change and the rise in property values have a
big impact on the inflation trend. Given that the idea of the “green economy”
has an impact on both social and economic elements, it unavoidably has a
variety of effects on the financial sector. In this regard, both the activities that
participants in the domestic financial market engage in relation to this topic,
as well as its development, structuring, and standardization at the international
25
26
Martin, V. (2021), p. 76
Martin, V. (2022), p. 7
45
Vesna Martin
The impact of geopolitical tensions on financial and price stability...
level, are closely watched by the National Bank of Serbia. The Republic of
Serbia accepted the Green Agenda Declaration in October 2020 at a conference
in Sofia and committed to putting it into action through the Regional Action
Plan that was adopted at the summit in Slovenia in October 2021. The
aforementioned projects aim to transform the Republic of Serbia into a more
environmentally friendly nation, particularly in the areas of lowering soil,
water, and air pollution and implementing the circular economy. It should also
be highlighted that the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), a
group of central banks and supervisors, includes the National Bank of Serbia
from July 2021, and that this network undoubtedly keeps track of how this
subject develops on a global scale. Also, the Republic of Serbia in September
2021 issued a green eurobond for the first time in its history in the amount of
1.0 billion EUR with a maturity of seven years. The issue itself complies with
the International Capital Markets Association’s Green Bond Guidelines.
One of the objectives of the Republic of Serbia in the upcoming time
should be energy efficiency and the continued development of renewable
energy sources, keeping in mind that in the previous period the growth of
inflation was caused by the increase in energy prices. Since the era of low
energy prices is over, energy usage must be considered carefully. Banks
work to lessen their negative effects on the environment, consume less
energy, and create a more hospitable environment for human life. In order
to guarantee energy efficiency for new buildings as well as renovations of
existing commercial and residential structures, Serbia’s banking sector has
long approved loans to households and corporations from its own funds as
well as from credit lines from international financial organizations (like the
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development). The most frequent uses
of loan funds are to install solar panels, replace dated carpentry, and build
a new exterior. Local self-government organizations, in addition to banks,
also approve funding through grants and subsidies in order to increase energy
efficiency. Commercial banks in the Republic of Serbia also approve green car
loans in an effort to boost the use of electric and hybrid vehicles and cut down
on the use of fossil fuels. The requirement for green agricultural production,
which incorporates the idea of organic production and operates in accordance
with environmental protection principles, is imposed by the struggle against
climate change. However, it is important to note that the creation of organic
agricultural production entails greater investments than traditional agricultural
production because it necessitates respecting the controls, certification, and
methods used in organic production, as well as the labeling, storage, and
46
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 31-52
transportation of organic products. Due to higher per-unit investments as
well as a lower output volume than traditional production, organic production
has higher expenses. This method of manufacturing involves adhering to the
values of sustainable business, but it also means that inflation will rise as a
result of the higher costs of organic production.
A smooth transition to a sustainable economy and the cooperation
of all key institutions—public and private—are required in order to increase
public awareness of the harmful impacts of climate change and implement
policies aimed at minimizing and managing climate risks. By encouraging
sustainable finance in the financial sector, the central bank also aids in the fight
against climate change.
CONCLUSION REMARKS
Following the start of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine at the
end of February 2022, geopolitical tensions increased, which caused major
turbulence in the commodity and financial markets. Global supply chains
came to a standstill as China strengthened its anti-pandemic regulations at the
same time. Given that Russia and Ukraine are the world’s top producers of
metals and cereals, and Russia is the world’s top producer of natural gas and
oil, the conflict between these two nations has led to sharp increases in the
cost of these products, which have now reached record highs. As a result of
these changes in food and energy prices, inflation and inflationary expectations
have significantly increased, which has led central banks to tighten monetary
policy in response. Geopolitical tensions contributed to a further spike in
global inflation, which had already started to climb in 2021 as a result of the
pandemic’s end. International financial institutions have lowered economic
growth expectations in response to the altered economic environment, while
sharply raising their worldwide inflation projections.
After the conflict began, the United States of America and the European
Union put sanctions on Russia, which slowed down both global economic
growth and the expansion of the euro zone, the Republic of Serbia’s primary
trading partner. Over the course of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, Serbia’s
inflation rate grew as a result of global events. Base inflation was much lower
than headline inflation thanks to the continued stability of the dinar’s exchange
rate in reference to the euro. The rise in the cost of energy and basic goods, as
47
Vesna Martin
The impact of geopolitical tensions on financial and price stability...
well as a sizable amount of import inflation, were the main causes of the high
inflationary pressures. The National Bank of Serbia used macroprudential and
monetary policy measures to attain and maintain price and financial stability.
The analysis revealed that while financial stability was maintained, as indicated
by the results of the systemic stress indicator and the financial stress index,
geopolitical concerns were a factor in the increase in inflation.
Despite all the difficulties over the past few years, the Republic of
Serbia’s banking industry has continued to operate well. A profitable outcome
was reached in 2021, and profitability indicators continued to rise in 2022. It
is anticipated that the banking industry will continue to be well-capitalized
and very liquid in the years to come. In order to reduce systemic risks in the
financial system, the National Bank of Serbia has also implemented all capital
buffers since the end of June 2017. The amount of non-performing loans in the
banking sector has significantly decreased as a result of the measures taken
to address them in prior years. This shows that the quality of bank assets has
not decreased even after the measures to aid the corporates and households in
reducing the negative effects of the corona virus were discontinued and that
it does not pose a barrier to future growth in credit activities. The National
Bank of Serbia made the decision to tighten monetary policy in 2022 and
in fist four months in 2023 by raising the reference interest rate due to the
escalating cost pressures from the domestic and global environments. By
this policy, the National Bank of Serbia aimed to reduce market participants’
inflationary expectations while also limiting any negative consequences on the
movement of product and service prices. As a result of the increase in the key
policy rate, the interest rates in the money market, loans, and dinar savings
also increased. This proves the efficiency of the transmission mechanism
through the interest rate. The government’s actions to control food and energy
prices on the domestic market should be noted in addition to monetary policy
measures intended to reduce inflationary pressures.
The National Bank of Serbia shall regularly monitor and react promptly
to the formation of systemic risk in the area of financial stability in order to
adequately respond to all shocks from the local and international environment.
In this context, stress tests must be performed in order to assess the banking
sector’s resilience while also allocating a suitable amount of capital buffers.
In order to ensure price stability, the Republic of Serbia must concentrate
on renewable energy sources, keeping in mind that the rise in energy prices
accounted for the majority of import inflation. The situation in the financial
48
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 31-52
sector, as well as changes in the domestic market, will be closely monitored
and analyzed by the National Bank of Serbia in the future, particularly
changes and risks from the global environment. As before, the National Bank
of Serbia will take prompt monetary, microprudential, and macroprudential
action to maintain macroeconomic and financial stability in the face of such
unpredictability and elevated geopolitical risks.
UTICAJ GEOPOLITIČKIH TENZIJA NA FINANSIJSKU I
CENOVNU STABILNOST: PRIMER SRBIJE
Rezime
Sukob između Rusije i Ukrajine je ostavio dalekosežne posledice na
globalnom nivou i odrazio se na značajan rast cena energenata i hrane, što
je posledično dovelo do porasta inflacije i inflacionih očekivanja. Prisutna
ekonomska neizvesnost je uticala na usporavanje globalnog rasta, uz istovremeno
pooštravanje lokalnih i globalnih uslova finansiranja. Opisana dešavanja su
se odražila na cenovnu i finansijsku stabilnost, koje su izložene povećanom
geopolitičkom riziku. Prethodno postignuta makroekonomska stabilnost je uticala
da geopolitičke tenzije imaju manje posledice na Srbiju, koja je uspela da sačuva
i dodatno ojača finansijsku stabilnost. Usled energetske krize Srbija je zabežila
porast inflacije pri čemu najveći deo tog porasta se duguje uvoznoj inflacije na
koju mere monetarne politike Narodne banke Srbije nemaju uticaj. Analiza je
pokazala da je transimisioni mehanizam monetarne politike bio efikasan putem
kanala kamatne stope, a da je finansijsku stabilnost očuvana na šta upućuju
rezultati pokazatelja sistemskog stresa i indeksa finansijskog stresa.
Ključne reči: cenovna stabilnost, finansijsku stabilnost, geopolitičke tenzije
49
Vesna Martin
The impact of geopolitical tensions on financial and price stability...
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Pregledni članak
NASTANAK I RAZVOJ ŠTEDNO-KREDITNIH ZADRUGA U
SRBIJI+1
Vladimir Zakić*2
zakic@agrif.bf.ac.rs
Marija Nikolić**3
mnikolic@agrif.bf.ac.rs
Rezime
Samo dve godine nakon osnivanja Ročdelske zadruge u Velikoj Britaniji
(prve priznate zadruge u svetu), Slovaci osnivaju 1846. godine u Bačkom Petrovcu
Gazdovský spolok. Značajniji razvoj zadružnih organizacija u Vojvodini počinje
od 1860-ih. Nakon dobijanja nezavisnosti od Turske 1878. godine, stvaraju se
uslovi i za razvoj zadrugarstva na području centralne Srbije. Posle relativnog
neuspeha prvih zadruga, u selu Vranovu kod Smedereva 1894. godine osnovana je
Zadruga za međusobno pomaganje i štednju. Posle Vranova, osnivaju se zadruge
Rajfajzenovog tipa širom Srbije. Nakon okončanja prvog svetskog rata i ujedinjenja,
došlo je do intenzivnog razvoja zadrugarstva. Početno forsiranje razvoja kreditnih
zadruga od 1920-ih u velikoj meri je doprinelo stvaranju „zlatne ere“ zadružnog
sektora u Srbiji – broj nabavno-prodajnih zadruga se povećao tri puta, a broj
svih ostalih specijalizovanih zadruga čak 16 puta. Nakon drugog svetskog rata,
zadrugarstvo je u početnim fazama često imalo „prinudan“ karakter za članove, dok
su kasnije zadruge suštinski bile slične preduzećima i finansijskim organizacijama
„samoupravnog“ tipa. U tranzicionom periodu delovao je mali broj oslabljenih
štedno-kreditnih zadruga sa redukovanim članstvom. Ključna prepreka koja je
u potpunosti onemogućila rad štedno-kreditnih zadruga je usvajanje Zakona o
bankama iz 2005. godine. Ovaj zakon predviđa da se štedno-kreditnim poslovima
mogu baviti isključivo banke. Iskustva većine razvijenih evropskih država
pokazuju izuzetan značaj i uticaj zadružnih finansijskih organizacija, što ukazuje
na neophodnost njihovog ponovnog osnivanja u Srbiji.
Ključne reči: štedno-kreditne zadruge, kooperative, kreditne unije
JEL KLASIFIKACIJA: G21, P13
Rad je nastao kao rezultat istraživanja u okviru ugovora o realizaciji i finansiranju naučnoistraživačkog rada u
2023. godini između Poljoprivrednog fakulteta u Beogradu i Ministarstva nauke, tehnološkog razvoja i inovacija
Republike Srbije, evidencioni broj ugovora: 451-03-682023-14200116.
2*
Redovni profesor, Univerzitet u Beogradu – Poljoprivredni fakultet
3**
Docent, Univerzitet u Beogradu – Poljoprivredni fakultet
1+
53
Vladimir Zakić i Marija Nikolić
Nastanak i razvoj štedno-kreditnih zadruga u Srbiji
UVOD
Pod zadružnim finansijskim organizacijama podrazumevaju se dve
vrste finansijskih organizacija: štedno-kreditne zadruge i zadružne banke.
Obe navedene organizacije posluju u skladu sa zadružnim principima, odnosno
predstavljaju vrstu zadruga čiji je zadatak da svojim članovima obezbeđuju
povoljne finansijske usluge. Razlike između štedno-kreditnih zadruga i
zadružnih banaka se odnose na veličinu imovine kojom raspolažu, strukturu
članova i obim i vrstu finansijskih usluga koje pružaju. Štedno-kreditne zadruge
su po pravilu manje organizacije čiji su članovi pretežno fizička lica i koje
pružaju osnovne finansijske usluge. Nasuprot tome, zadružne banke raspolažu
značajnom imovinom, njihovi članovi su pretežno pravna lica, uključujući i
štedno-kreditne zadruge, i pružaju širok spektar finansijskih usluga.
Štedno-kreditne zadruge (ŠKZ) predstavljaju posebnu vrstu zadruga
koje se bave pružanjem finansijskih usluga, pre svega obezbeđivanjem kredita
pod povoljnim uslovima. Kako je akcenat njihovog poslovanja na davanju
kredita, štedno-kreditne zadruge se skraćeno nazivaju kreditne zadruge.
Formira ih organizovana grupa ljudi povezana zajedničkom vezom koji se
udružuju kako bi sebi obezbedili određene finansijske usluge. Štedno-kreditne
zadruge ili kreditne zadruge se još nazivaju i kreditne unije, najčešće u zapadnoevropskim zemljama. Drugim rečima, za zadrugu koja pruža finansijske usluge
se može koristiti termin štedno-kreditna zadruga, kreditna zadruga ili kreditna
unija (svaka evropska država je u početnim fazama razvoja zadruga prihvatala
jedan od ova tri naziva).
Značajno je napomenuti i da se u našoj domaćoj praksi i literaturi
upotrebljava prvenstveno termin „zadruga“, dok je međunarodni termin
„kooperativa“ – engleski: cooperative; francuski: coopérative; italijanski:
cooperativa; ruski: кооператив.
ŠKZ je posebna vrsta zadruga koja posluje na finansijskom tržištu.
Ona nije u vlasništvu jednog lica ili grupe akcionara. Vlasnici su njeni članovi,
koji se istovremeno javljaju i kao korisnici usluga zadruge. Naime, da bi
zainteresovano lice moglo da štedi ili uzima pozajmice od ŠKZ ono mora da
postane njen član i da po osnovu toga uplati određeni ulog koji se koristi za
formiranje kapitala. Na taj način ista osoba se javlja kao vlasnik (po osnovu
uplate kapitala), član (jer je zadovoljio kriterijum za članstvo) i klijent (jer
54
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 53-67
štedi u kreditnoj zadruzi ili uzima zajam od nje). Pored toga, ovo lice učestvuje
u upravljanju zadrugom po osnovu članstva i to tako što se sve odluke donose
većinom glasova, pri čemu svaki član ima jedan glas (pravilo jedan član –
jedan glas).
ŠKZ radi u cilju maksimiziranja ekonomske koristi svojih članova
pružanjem finansijskih usluga, odnosno ima za cilj da svojim članovima
obezbedi povoljne finansijske usluge. Višak koji se ostvari vraća se članovima
kroz niže naknade za pružene usluge, više kamatne stope na uloženu štednju i
niže kamate na pozajmice u odnosu na komercijalne banke.
1. ISTORIJSKI OSNOV RAZVOJA I AKTUELNO STANJE
ZADRUŽNIH FINANSIJSKIH ORGANIZACIJA U EVROPI
Začeci zadružnog pokreta se vezuju za sredinu 19. veka i aktivnosti
dva izuzetna pojedinca: Rajfajzena (Friedrich Willhelm Raiffeisen) i ŠulcDeliča (Franz Hermann Schulze-Delitzsch). Kao gradonačelnik nekoliko
manjih gradova u Nemačkoj, Rajfajzen je nastojao da ublaži patnje siromašnih
seljaka koji su bili u „kandžama“ zelenaša i svojevrsnom dužničkom ropstvu.
Uz donacije bogatih sugrađana, osniva nekoliko dobrotvornih organizacija
koje su imale za cilj da obezbede osnovne životne namirnice, ali i živu stoku
najsiromašnijim slojevima stanovništva pod povoljnim uslovima. Budući da
su ove organizacije bile zavisne od donacija, nisu obezbeđivale adekvatnu
podršku, niti su bile ekonomski stabilne i nezavisne. Uviđajući nedostatke
ovakvih organizacija, kao i izraženu potrebu seljaka za finansijskim sredstvima,
transformiše ih u kreditne zadruge, čiji je zadatak bio da pozajmljuju novac
članovima po niskim kamatnim stopama. Smatrao je da je potrebno podučiti
poljoprivrednike kako da sami sebi pomognu kroz delovanje kreditnih
zemljoradničkih zadruga, kao i da takve organizacije moraju poslovati po
strogim i specifičnim pravilima. Suštinska odlika zadruga Rajfajzenovog
tipa bila je oslanjanje na moralne kvalitete članstva. Smatrao je da je svako
dobrodošao u zadrugu, bez obzira na materijalnu situaciju, ali pod uslovom da
neko od članova zadruge garantuje za njega, odnosno da svi članovi zadruge
treba da solidarno i neograničeno garantuju za njeno poslovanje. Polazeći
od ovih premisa, nastali su principi rada kreditnih zemljoradničkih zadruga.1
Druga značajna ličnost u razvoju zadružnog bankarstva je nemački političar
1
Nikolić et al (2018), str. 72
55
Vladimir Zakić i Marija Nikolić
Nastanak i razvoj štedno-kreditnih zadruga u Srbiji
i ekonomista Šulc-Delič, čija je aktivnost bila okrenuta prvenstveno ka
urbanim područjima. Osnivanjem „narodnih banaka“ nastojao je da pomogne
sitnim zanatlijama, trgovcima i radnicima da opstanu u uslovima intenzivne
industrijalizacije.
Tradicionalno posmatrano, postoje dva tipa zadružnih banaka: Rajfajzen
banke, koje se vezuju za ruralna područja i Folks banke (Volksbanken), koje
se vezuju za ideje Šulc-Deliča i urbana područja. Do kraja 19. veka štednokreditne zadruge su razvile čitavu poslovnu mrežu u Nemačkoj (više hiljada
banaka), a pozitivna iskustva su dovela do prihvatanja ovih ideja i u drugim
evropskim zemljama.
Prema podacima Evropske asocijacije zadružnih banaka (European
Asociation Of Co-Operative Banks – EACB), danas u Evropi posluje 2.700
zadružnih banaka sa 40 hiljada poslovnica, imaju ukupno 227 miliona
klijenata, 89 miliona članova i 720 hiljada zaposlenih, a prosečno imaju 20%
tržišnog učešća.2
Od zemalja zapadne Evrope, među lidere u razvoju zadružnog
bankarstva mogu se izdvojiti Nemačka, Austrija, Francuska, Holandija i
Finska. Njihove zadružne bankarske grupacije su među vodećim evropskim ili
nacionalnim bankama (DZ, Raiffeisen, Crédit Agricole, Rabobank itd), a svoju
snagu zasnivaju na mreži lokalnih zadružnih banaka i jedne ili više centralnih
finansijskih institucija koje posluju kao komercijalne banke. Razvijeno
zadružno bankarstvo prisutno je i u brojnim zapadno-evropskim državama
poput Italije, Irske, Velike Britanije itd. Sa druge strane postoje i primeri
nekoliko država EU sa razvijenim zadružnim sistemima, ali bez značajnih
zadružnih finansijskih institucija (npr. Belgija i Švedska). Interesantan je
primer Grčke, koja je zadružno bankarstvo počela da razvija tek od 1992.
godine, pre svega kroz usklađivanje sa evropskom regulativom.
2. RAZVOJ ŠTEDNO-KREDITNIH ZADRUGA U SRBIJI
Srbija je do drugog svetskog rata imala izraženu i uspešnu zadružnu
tradiciju. Međunarodni zadružni savez (International Co-operative Alliance
– ICA), kao danas najvažnija globalna institucija koja predstavlja više od
milijardu članova zadruga iz 105 država, osnovana je na prvom Kongresu u
2
https://www.eacb.coop/en/european-association-of-co-operative-banks.html (datum pristupa 02.03.2023)
56
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 53-67
Londonu 1895. godine. Među samo trinaest zemalja osnivača ovog Saveza
bila je i Kraljevina Srbija (uz SAD, Nemačku, Englesku, Italiju, Francusku,
Holandiju, Dansku, Švajcarsku, Belgiju, Australiju, Argentinu i Indiju).
Zadružna ideja u Srbiji razvijala se paralelno na teritoriji tadašnje
Srbije i Vojvodine. Vojvodina, kao južni deo Ugarske, bila je bliža Evropi, te
su stoga i nove ideje na ovoj teritoriji usvajane ranije nego u Srbiji, mada one
u oba područja vuku korene iz porodičnih zadruga.
Od sredine 19. veka sve više je sazrevalo uverenje da je udruživanje
jedini spas ne samo za pojedince nego i za ceo narod. Stoga su aktivnosti
naprednih ljudi (često su to bili seoski učitelji i sveštenici) usmerene ne samo
na udruživanje, već i na prosvećivanje i kulturno podizanje seljaka i zanatlija.
Nosioci ovih ideja i organizatori aktivnosti u narodu su brojni. Među njima
se posebno ističe Štefan Homola, slovački evangelistički kapelan u Bačkom
Petrovcu, koji bio je utemeljitelj organizovanog društvenog i privrednog rada
Slovaka u Vojvodini. Osnovao je 1846. godine prvu zemljoradničko-kreditnu
zadrugu u Bačkom Petrovcu. U zadružnoj literaturi, zadruga pod nazivom
Gozdovsky spolok se smatra prvom zadrugom ove vrste na južnoslovenskim
prostorima.3
Zadružni pokret u Vojvodini je dao dobre rezultate već u početnoj
fazi razvoja. Pored zadruga u poljoprivredi, ove organizacije se javljaju i u
zanatstvu. Prve kabaničarske zadruge osnovane su tokom 1866. godine u
Pančevu, Vršcu, Velikom Bečkereku, Velikoj Kikindi i drugim mestima. Prva
kreditna zadruga tipa Šulce-Deliča namenjena zanatlijama osnovana je, kod
vojvođanskih Slovaka, u Pivnicama 1868. godine. Naredne godine u Gložaku
je osnovana Zadruga za uzajamno pomaganje među zanatlijama i trgovcima, a
zatim u Bačkom Petrovcu, Staroj Palanci i dr. Prva kreditna zadruga kod Srba
u Vojvodini osnovana je u Novom Sadu 1870. godine pod nazivom Srpska
zadruga za uzajamno pomaganje i štednju (Nikolić, Zakić, Tasić, 2018, str.
76). Iste godine osnovana je zadruga za srpsku narodnu štampariju. Prve
krojačke zadruge osnovane su 1871. godine (za muška odela) i 1872. godine
(za ženska odela).4
Usponu zadružnog pokreta u Vojvodini doprinelo je i osnivanje
specijalizovanih zadruga koje je na poseban način preporučivala Mitropolija
Karlovačka preko svoga sveštenstva. Naime, sveštenstvu je preporučivano da,
pored ostalih dužnosti, podstiču zadruge za međusobno pomaganje i štednju,
3
4
Videti više: Zakić Z., (2000), str. 222-226.
Op. cit
57
Vladimir Zakić i Marija Nikolić
Nastanak i razvoj štedno-kreditnih zadruga u Srbiji
zajedničku proizvodnju i prodaju, zajedničku nabavku radila i dr. Naročito
su preporučivane voćarske, svilarske, vrtlarske i vinarske zadruge. Takođe
je preporučivano zasnivanje oglednih opštinskih voćnjaka. Smatralo se da u
selima nema mnogo obrazovanijih ljudi od sveštenika, te da oni treba da se
angažuju u pomaganju svojih parohijana.5
Nakon dobijanja nezavisnosti od Turske 1878. godine (Berlinskim
kongresom), stvaraju se uslovi za ubrzani razvoj zadrugarstva na području
centralne Srbije. Posle relativnog neuspeha prvih zadruga, u selu Vranovu
kod Smedereva 1894. godine osnovana je Zadruga za međusobno pomaganje
i štednju. Osnivanje ove zadruge vezuje za Mihajla Avramovića, koji je bio
najznačajnije ime početne faze razvoja zadružnog pokreta u Srbiji. Pošao je od
praktičnih iskustava Rafajzenovih poljoprivrednih kreditnih zadruga koje je
proučavao u Nemačkoj i Italiji, kao i francuskih nabavno-prodajnih zadruga.
Avramović deluje dvojako - kao praktičar koji pokreće osnivanje zadruga
učestvujući u tome lično, i kao pisac - teoretičar koji je ostavio duboke tragove
u zadružnoj teoriji ne samo na južnoslovenskim prostorima, već i daleko šire
u međunarodnim razmerama.6
Smederevo sa okolinom u to vreme je bilo jedno od najrazvijenijih
područja u Srbiji. Seljaci u smederevskoj okolini su ipak bili prezaduženi. To
je jedan od glavnih razloga što su ovde, pre nego u drugim krajevima, ideje
Mihaila Avramovića o zadrugarstvu prihvaćene. Selo Vranovo je bilo jedno od
naprednijih. U samom Vranovu bilo je dosta seoskih gazda, trgovaca i zelenaša
koji su od lokalnih seljaka jeftino kupovali poljoprivredne proizvode i davali
im pozajmice uz visoke kamatne stope.
Iz Pravila zadruge se vidi da je osnovni cilj ove zadruge bio ,,da nabavi
svojim članovima novac za poljoprivredne radove, da razvija i odomaći svest o
štednji između njih, te da na taj način utiče na popravku njihovog materijalnog
stanja… zaključuje zajmove na osnovu solidarne obaveze svojih članova i da
prima štedioničke uloge, kako od svojih članova tako i od drugih lica.“7
Potreban kapital za rad zadruge formiran je na osnovu uloga
članova zadruge (čija visina je zavisila od imovinskog stanja svakog člana)
i zaduženjem kod Smederevske okružne banke. Kapital zadruge se uvećavao
po osnovu štednje članova i kamata na odobrene kredite. U svom radu ova
zadruga se strogo pridržavala osnovnih zadružnih principa kao što su: jednako
Kišgeci i Vitez (1996): str. 3-11.
Videti više o Mihajlu Avramoviću: Zakić Z., (2000), str. 241-250.
7
Pantić i Nikolov (1994), str. 203.
5
6
58
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 53-67
pravo glasa, solidarna odgovornost, sloboda ulaska i izlaska, regulisana podela
dobiti i besplatno obavljanje funkcije (plaćena je bila samo funkcija sekretaraknjigovođe).
Posle Vranova, osnivaju se kreditno-štedne zadruge Rajfajzenovog
tipa prvo u okolini Smedereva, a potom i širom Srbije. Posle ovog prvog talasa
kreditnih zemljoradničkih zadruga niču i brojne specijalizovane zadruge
(zanatske, voćarske, ratarske…).
Nakon okončanja prvog svetskog rata i ujedinjenja, došlo je do
intenzivnog razvoja zadrugarstva. U početnim fazama tokom 1920-ih, u Srbiji
je forsiran razvoj kreditnih zadruga koje su do 1934. godine bile vodeće po
broju (Tabela 1). Nezavisno od naziva one nisu nikada bile isključivo kreditne
zadruge, već su predstavljale više tip multifunkcionalnih zadruga koje su se
bavile, između ostalog, i nabavkom potrebnih sredstava za poljoprivredna
gazdinstva. Jedna od bitnih karakteristika ovih zadruga bila je u tome što
one nisu delile ostvarenu dobit svojim članovima. Neto dobitak se prenosio u
rezervni fond koji je bio namenjen za pokriće eventualnih gubitaka zadruge,
kao i za dodeljivanje nagrade uspešnim zemljoradnicima - članovima zadruge,
zatim dobrim štedišama, dobrim majkama, dobroj deci-đacima, te za druge
prosvetne i dobrotvorne svrhe. U slučaju prestanka rada zadruge ovaj fond
je predavan Savezu srpskih zemljoradničkih zadruga koji ga je usmeravao
na osnivanje novih zadruga istog tipa, prevashodno u mestu gde je do tada
poslovala ugašena zadruga.8
Tabela 1. Vrste zadružnih organizacija u Srbiji tokom međuratnog perioda
Kreditne
Godina
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
8
Broj
800
808
1258
1227
1220
1181
%
55
52
62
61
61
60
Različiti oblici zadruga
NabavnoOstale
prodajne
Broj
%
Broj
%
621
694
700
716
708
707
42
44
35
36
36
36
47
61
62
63
65
72
Izvor podataka o razvoju zadrugarstva u Srbiji: Zakić i Zakić (2021). str. 207-252.
59
3
4
3
3
3
4
Ukupno
1468
1563
2020
2006
1993
1960
Vladimir Zakić i Marija Nikolić
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1165
1183
1059
1087
1187
1096
1139
1173
1156
1109
1109
1096
1098
1077
59
60
57
55
53
48
45
43
40
37
35
33
31
29
Nastanak i razvoj štedno-kreditnih zadruga u Srbiji
718
727
746
806
880
903
1018
1153
1325
1424
1558
1632
1731
1819
37
37
39
40
40
40
41
42
45
48
49
49
50
50
74
66
85
102
152
287
352
394
425
446
490
595
654
751
4
3
4
5
7
12
14
15
15
15
16
18
19
21
1957
1976
1890
1995
2219
2286
2509
2720
2906
2979
3157
3323
3483
3647
Izvor: Pavlović (1994), str. 31
Početno forsiranje kreditnih zadruga u velikoj meri je doprinelo
stvaranju „zlatne ere“ zadružnog sektora u Srbiji – u međuratnom periodu
broj nabavno-prodajnih zadruga se povećao tri puta, a broj svih ostalih
specijalizovanih zadruga čak 16 puta.
Nakon drugog svetskog rata, zadrugarstvo je u početnim fazama
često imalo „prinudan“ karakter za članove, dok su kasnije zadruge suštinski
bile slične preduzećima i finansijskim organizacijama „samoupravnog“ tipa.
U tranzicionom periodu delovao je mali broj oslabljenih štedno-kreditnih
zadruga sa redukovanim članstvom. Nemogućnost podizanja devizne
štednje u državnim bankama, hiperinflacija i pojava piramidalnih „banaka“
ili „štedionica“ (Dafiment, Jugoskandik) obesmislila je ideju štednje u Srbiji
tokom 1990-ih.
Ključna prepreka koja je u potpunosti onemogućila rad štednokreditnih zadruga je usvajanje Zakona o bankama iz 2005. godine. Ovaj zakon
predviđa da se štedno-kreditnim poslovima mogu baviti isključivo banke,
čime su ukinute ne samo ova vrsta zadruga, već i štedionice i štedno-kreditne
organizacije. Druge finansijske organizacije koje su želele da se transformišu
u banke u skladu sa ovim zakonom imale su obavezu da obezbede osnivački
60
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 53-67
kapital od deset miliona evra, što je za preostale štedno-kreditne zadruge bilo
nemoguće, pa su krajem 2008. godine sve ukinute.9
3. AKTUELNO STANJE ZADRUGARSTVA U SRBIJI I
PROBLEMI FINANSIRANJA
Dugo očekivani novi Zakon o zadrugama usvojen je 2015. godine.
Zakon je doneo unapređenja, ali ima i određenih nedostataka koji se mogu
posmatrati i kao posledica žurbe da se zakon konačno usvoji posle više
neuspešnih pokušaja tokom prethodnih godina. Prema ovom zakonu (član
10), zadruge se mogu osnovati kao zemljoradničke ili poljoprivredne,
stambene, potrošačke, zanatske, radničke, studentsko-omladinske, socijalne,
zdravstvene, kao i druge vrste zadruga za obavljanje proizvodnje, prometa
robe, vršenja usluga i drugih delatnosti. Iz ovog člana proizilazi jedan od
ključnih nedostataka ovog Zakona, a to je odsustvo mogućnosti osnivanja
zadružnih finansijskih organizacija koje često predstavljaju najvažniji izvor
finansiranja drugih zadruga u razvijenim zemljama. U zakonu nije data čak
ni mogućnost osnivanja štedno-kreditnih zadruga nakon eventualnih izmena
drugih zakona koji regulišu rad finansijskih organizacija.
Uprkos navedenom ograničenju, zadružni sektor u Srbiji nije
zanemarljiv. Prema poslednjim dostupnim podacima registrovano je 2.910
zadruga i 31 zadružni savez (podaci Privredne komore Srbije za kraj 2021.
godine, kriterijum „aktivan status“). Od ukupnog broja registrovanih zadruga
preko 70% su poljoprivredne zadruge (uključujući i zadruge za proizvodnju
prehrambenih proizvoda i pića), odnosno zadruge u agrobiznisu.
Od ukupnog broja zadruga, 2.233 ili 76,7% je locirano u seoskim
sredinama, što znači da su već usmerene na rad sa ruralnim stanovništvom.
Manje od četvrtine zadruga posluje u gradskim sredinama, pri čemu su,
očekivano, brojnije one koje posluju van agrara (470) u odnosu na zadruge iz
agrobiznisa (207).
Zakon o zadrugama naglašava da zadruge uživaju posebnu zaštitu
Republike Srbije, autonomne pokrajine i jedinice lokalne samouprave u
obavljanju njihove pretežne delatnosti. Ova zaštita ogleda se u podsticanju
zadrugarstva merama ekonomske, agrarne i stambene politike, kao i drugih
9
Nikolić et al (2018), str. 80-82.
61
Vladimir Zakić i Marija Nikolić
Nastanak i razvoj štedno-kreditnih zadruga u Srbiji
razvojnih politika, uključujući davanje odgovarajućih olakšica i pogodnosti,
koje se utvrđuju posebnim propisima, kao i mogućnosti osnivanja posebnih
fondova za razvoj zadruga od strane jedinica lokalne samouprave ili autonomne
pokrajine ili obezbeđivanjem sredstava u budžetu jedinica lokalne samouprave,
autonomne pokrajine i republike (Zakon o zadrugama, 2015, član 12).
Prve konkretne mere podrške razvoju zadrugarstva nakon više decenija
usledile su tokom 2017. godine, kada je Vlada Republike Srbije usvojila
projekat „Petsto zadruga u petsto sela“. U periodu od 2017. do 2021. godine,
Srbija je programom podrške razvoju zadrugarstva dodelom bespovratnih
sredstava za unapređenje poslovanja i tehnološki razvoj zadruga pomogla 207
zadruga širom Srbije, uključujući i Kosovo i Metohiju. Dodeljeno je ukupno
2,198 milijardi dinara, što je 18.697.720 evra. Bespovratna sredstva, do
petnaest miliona dinara, dobile su 82 stare zadruge, dok je podsticaje države,
do sedam i po miliona dinara, dobila 121 nova zadruga.10
Polazeći od iskustava razvijenih zemalja, jasno je da ovakve državne
donacije ne mogu trajati u nedogled i da će razvoj zadrugarstva morati da se
zasniva na drugim izvorima finansiranja. Kao najznačajniji rezultat ove mere
podrške zadrugama se izdvaja značajan broj novoformiranih zadruga. Trećina
ukupnog broja, tj. 958 aktivnih zadruga je počelo sa radom u periodu primene
ove mere, odnosno od 2017. godine do danas. Najveći broj ovih zadruga
registrovano je u agrobiznis sektoru, čak 773, što je i očekivano imajući u vidu
da su mere podrške bile usmerene dominantno na poljoprivredne zadruge,
posebno u početnim fazama primene programa.
Od blizu 3.000 registrovanih zadruga, prema podacima za poslednju
dostupnu godinu11 1.333 su ostvarile poslovne prihode, dok je 939 ostvarilo
pozitivan neto rezultat-dobitak. Zadruge imaju oko 5.600 zaposlenih, što je
samo 0,24% od ukupnog broja zaposlenih u Srbiji (2,34 miliona).
Sa aspekta finansijskog uspeha, zadruge su klasifikovane u četiri
kategorije: pozitivan i negativan neto rezultat, zadruge čiji je neto rezultat bio
na nuli i zadruge bez podataka o neto rezultatu. Broj zadruga sa pozitivnim
finansijskim rezultatom iznosi 939 ili 32,3%, dok je broj zadruga čiji je
poslovni rezultat bio na nuli ili negativan ukupno 1.297 ili 44,6%. Za ostatak
zadruga nisu dostupni finansijski podaci.
www.rts.rs/page/stories/sr/story/13/ekonomija/5055439/zadruge-zadrugarstvo-udruzivanje-poljoprivrednika-.
html (datum pristupa 02.03.2023)
11
Za većinu zadruga podaci PKS se odnose na 2021. godinu, Međutim, za jedan broj zadruga (383) poslednje
dostupni podaci su za period od 2014. do 2020. godine.
10
62
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 53-67
Drugim rečima, blizu dve trećine zadruga u Srbiji nisu ostvarile dobitak
u 2021. godini. Stanje je još više zabrinjavajuće ako se analiziraju samo zadruge
nastale u poslednjem „talasu“ osnivanja, počev od 2017. godine. Od preko
900 novoosnovanih zadruga za koje su postojala očekivanja da budu pokretači
razvoja zadrugarstva, posebno sa obzirom na to da je preko 120 ovih zadruga
dobilo značajne državne subvencije, samo 300 je poslovalo sa dobitkom.
To može ukazivati na neodgovarajuće kriterijume prilikom dodeljivanja
ovih sredstava i na eventualno osnivanje novih zadruga isključivo sa ciljem
dobijanja državne subvencije. Samim tim, potrebno je razmotriti drugačije
forme državnih subvencija, uključujući i finansijsku podršku osnivanju štednokreditnih zadruga.
Loš finansijski uspeh novoformiranih zadruga može se objasniti i
poteškoćama povezanim sa razvojem novog preduzeća, pozicijom zadruga
u prehrambenom lancu, nedovoljno razvijenim vezama sa prerađivačkom
industrijom, ali i nedostatkom kapitala za angažovanjem u sferi prerade.
Tradicionalno, poljoprivredne zadruge su predstavljale sponu između
poljoprivrednika i prerađivačke industrije koja je koristila poljoprivredne
proizvode kao sirovinu. Zatvaranje prerađivačkih kapaciteta usled neuspešne
privatizacije i povezivanje preostalih prerađivačkih kapaciteta u jake subjekte
u oligopolističkom položaju na tržištu sirovih poljoprivrednih proizvoda,
onemogućilo je zadruge da i dalje obavljaju svoju posredničku ulogu. U takvim
uslovima, zadruge imaju perspektivu ukoliko svojim članovima obezbede
mogućnost da sirove poljoprivredne proizvode prerade u proizvode višeg
stepena prerade i takve plasiraju na tržište. Ovo zahteva poslovno povezivanje
zadruga, ali i značajna finansijska sredstva. U tom smislu, postojanje štednokreditnih zadruga je nužno ne samo u cilju finansiranja primarne poljoprivredne
proizvodnje, već i opstanka i prosperiteta drugih vrsta zadruga.
Među zadrugama koje su poslovale pozitivno, najviše je zadruga čiji je
neto rezultat iznosio do 100 hiljada dinara. Sa povećanjem visine neto rezultata
smanjuje se broj zadruga koji su uspele da ga dostignu, pa je tako najmanje
zadruga – svega 12 ili 0,4% ukupnog broja zadruga poslovalo sa preko 50
miliona dinara dobitka.
Komercijalne banke u Srbiji nisu pokazale interesovanje za odobravanje
posebnih kredita za zadruge. S obzirom na činjenicu da u Srbiji ima ubedljivo
najviše poljoprivrednih zadruga, mogu se analizirati obim i uslovi odobravanja
poljoprivrednih kredita. Prema podacima Narodne banke Srbije (NBS) koji se
odnose na sektorsku raspodelu ukupnih kredita, u periodu 2008-2021. godine,
63
Vladimir Zakić i Marija Nikolić
Nastanak i razvoj štedno-kreditnih zadruga u Srbiji
učešće poljoprivrede se kreće od 2,7-3,7% (Tabela 2). Nakon 2015. godine
kada je učešće dostiglo maksimalnih 3,7%, dolazi do stalne stagnacije, pa
je 2021. godine ono iznosilo 3%. Nisu dostupni podaci o strukturi klijenata
(fizička i pravna lica) koji uzimaju poljoprivredne kredite, pa se može
pretpostaviti da se jedan deo ovog učešća odnosi na velika preduzeća. Takođe,
kredite koje odobravaju „nepoljoprivrednim“ zadrugama banke evidentiraju u
okviru drugih sektora, ali je izvesno da su oni u relativno skromnim iznosima.
Tabela 2. Procentualno učešće poljoprivrede u ukupno odobrenim kreditima banaka
(2008-2021)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
3,3
3,1
3,0
2,8
3,0
2,7
3,5
3,7
3,6
3,5
3,5
3,5
3,3
3,0
Izvor: NBS, Godišnji izveštaj o stabilnosti finansijskog sistema u 2021, str. 54
Iskustva razvijenih zemalja EU pokazuju da komercijalne banke po
svojoj prirodi nisu okrenute fizičkim licima i manjim pravnim licima u
ruralnim područjima. Ova praksa je takođe očigledna u Srbiji, što ukazuje
na izuzetan značaj osnivanja zadružnih finansijskih organizacija, koje bi
popunile ovu “prazninu”.
ZAKLJUČAK
Posmatrano sa aspekta pojavnih oblika, štedno-kreditne zadruge (ŠKZ)
mogu poslovati kao samostalne organizacije, što je karakteristično za zemlje
sa razvijenim privrednim sistemom i zadružnim sektorom, kao i za sredine u
kojima postoji kultura i tradicija štednje. U inicijalnim fazama razvoja zadruga,
kao i u privredama na nižem stepenu razvoja, štedno-kreditnim aktivnostima
se mogu baviti drugi oblici zadruga. U našim uslovima, za ove organizacije
se koristio termin štedno-kreditne službe i one su poslovale u okviru drugih
vrsta zadruga, kao što su poljoprivredne ili zanatske zadruge. Polazeći od
toga, planiranje revitalizacije ŠKZ u Srbiji podrazumeva najpre izbor jednog
od ova dva modela. „Jednostavniji model“ koji polazi od istorijskog aspekta
i trenutne faze razvoja zadrugarstva podrazumeva da se omogući postojećim
64
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 53-67
zadrugama da se bave i štedno-kreditnim aktivnostima, odnosno da se unutar
poljoprivrednih i drugih vrsta zadruga formiraju štedno-kreditne službe.
Nakon nekog vremena, ove službe bi se izdvojile kao samostalne štednokreditne zadruge. Drugi model podrazumeva od starta uspostavljanje ŠKZ kao
samostalnih organizacija.
Istorijski posmatrano, angažovanje drugih vrsta zadruga u obavljanju
štedno-kreditnih poslova se javlja u vreme nastanka prvih zadruga (npr. u
Nemačkoj i Austriji) ili u vreme socijalizma (kao što je slučaj u bivšoj SFRJ).
U svakom slučaju, u savremenoj evropskoj zadružnoj praksi ne postoje ovakva
rešenja i to iz dva razloga:
1) poljoprivredne i druge specijalizovane vrste zadruge su značajno
usmerene na obavljanje svoje primarne delatnosti i za njih je suviše zahtevno
u kadrovskom, organizacionom, prostornom i drugom smislu da uporedo
realizuju dve aktivnosti;
2) zahtevi na finansijskom tržištu, potrebni nivo znanja i obuke
zaposlenih, tehnička opremljenost i obim poslova štedno-kreditnih zadruga su
suviše kompleksni i specifični da bi uspešno mogli da se realizuju u drugim
vrstama zadruga.
Imajući u vidu prethodno, preporuka je da se štedno-kreditne zadruge od
momenta ponovnog uvođenja u privredni sistem Republike Srbije formiraju
kao samostalne organizacije.
EMERGENCE AND DEVELOPMENT OF SAVINGS AND LOAN
COOPERATIVES IN SERBIA
Abstract
Only two years after the founding of the Rochdale cooperative in Great
Britain (the first recognized cooperative in the world), the Slovaks founded
Gazdovský spolok in Bački Petrovac in 1846. The more significant development
of cooperative organizations in Vojvodina began in the 1860s. After gaining
independence from Turkey in 1878, conditions were created for the development
of cooperatives in the area of central Serbia. After the relative business failure
of the first cooperatives, in the village of Vranovo near Smederevo, in 1894, the
Cooperative for Mutual Help and Savings was founded. After Vranovo, Raiffeisen-
65
Vladimir Zakić i Marija Nikolić
Nastanak i razvoj štedno-kreditnih zadruga u Srbiji
type cooperatives were founded all over Serbia. After the end of the First World
War and unification, there was an intensive development of cooperatives. The
initial push for the development of credit cooperatives from the 1920s largely
contributed to the creation of the “golden era” of the cooperative sector in Serbia
- the number of purchase and sales cooperatives increased three times, and the
number of all other specialized cooperatives increased 16 times. After the Second
World War, cooperatives in the initial stages often had a “forced” character for
members, while later cooperatives were essentially similar to enterprises and
financial organizations of the “self-governing” type. In the transition period,
operated only a small number of weakened savings and credit cooperatives with
reduced membership. The key obstacle that completely prevented the operation of
savings and credit cooperatives was the adoption of the Law on Banks from 2005.
This law stipulates that only banks can deal with savings and loan operations.
The experiences of most developed European countries show the exceptional
importance and influence of cooperative financial organizations, which indicates
the necessity of their re-establishment in Serbia.
Key words: savings and credit cooperatives, credit unions
LITERATURA
Kišgeci, J., Vitez, M. (1996). Povodom 150. godišnjice osnivanja
zemljoradničke zadruge u Bačkom Petrovcu: osvrt na prve oblike zadrugarstva
u Vojvodini, Vek i po zemljoradničkog zadrugarstva u Vojvodini, Zadružni
savez Vojvodine, Novi Sad, str. 3-11.
NBS, Godišnji izveštaj o stabilnosti finansijskog sistema u 2021
Nikolić, M., Zakić, V., Tasić, V. (2018). Revitalizacija štedno-kreditnih
zadruga u Srbiji, Bankarstvo, 47(2), str. 70-91, Udruženje banaka Srbije,
Beograd.
Pantić, V., Nikolov, N. (1994). Kreditna zemljoradnička zadruga u
Vranovu, u ,,100 godina zemljoradničkog zadrugarstva Srbije“, ZSS, Beograd,
str. 202-205.
Pavlović, M. (1994). Zemljoradničko zadrugarstvo Srbije u Kraljevini
Jugoslaviji (1918-1941), u ,,100 godina zemljoradničkog zadrugarstva Srbije“,
Zadružni savez Srbije, Beograd, str. 30-47.
66
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 53-67
Zakić, V., Nikolić, M. (2018). Finansijska podrška države zadrugama
u Srbiji, Škola biznisa, Broj 1/2018, Visoka poslovna škola strukovnih studija
Novi Sad, str. 158-174.
Zakić, V., Nikolić, M., Kovačević, V. (2018). International experiences
in cooperative audit and lessons for Serbia, Economics of Agriculture, 65(3),
p. 1111-1122.
Zakić, Z. (2000). Koop menadžment, Dunav grupa, Dunav preving
a.d., Beograd
Zakić, V., Zakić, Z. (2021). Koop model privređivanja kao alternativa
održivog razvoja, Univerzitet u Beogradu – Poljoprivredni fakultet.
67
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 69-90
Pregledni članak
SPECIFIČNOSTI TURISTIČKE PONUDE: PROIZVOD ILI
USLUGA
Slavoljub Vujović*1
kelovic1967@yahoo.com
Željko Bjeljac**2
bjeljac.zeljko@gmail.com
Apstrakt
Sa stanovišta poimanja osnovnih činilaca turizma, odnosno turističke
ponude, posebno je interesantno pitanje: da li se radi o proizvodu ili usluzi (misli
se na ono što turisti plaćaju).
Ako se ne razumeju osnovni činioci neke pojave, ili procesa, kako onda
pisati razne pisanije i izvoditi zaključke o toj pojavi, ovakve ili onakve, otvarajući
vrata raznim nelogičnostima prisutnim u literaturi o turizmu.
Šta proizvode veliki turoperatori, koji, na primer u vlasništvu imaju više
aviona nego pola zemalja u svetu? Shodno njihovim promotivnim aktivnostima, i
zahvaljujući informaciono-komunikacionim tehnologijama poznato je šta nude i
kakve prihode ostvaruju.
Interdisciplinarno istraživanje bazirano na analizi literature, usmereno je
ka traženju odgovora na pitanje: da li se radi o proizvodu ili usluzi, kada je reč o
turističkoj ponudi?
Ključne reči: turizam, turistička ponuda, turistička usluga.
JEL KLASIFIKACIJA: F6, Q2, Q3, Q5
1*
Naučni savetnik, Ekonomski institut, Beograd, Srbija
Naučni savetnik, Institut „Jovan Cvijić“, SANU, Beograd, Srbija
2**
69
Slavoljub Vujović i Željko Bjeljac
Specifičnosti turističke ponude: proizvod ili usluga
UVOD
Kako u literaturi o turizmu, tako i praksi postoje pogrešna tumačenja
osnovnih pojmova i činilaca (etimologije i značenja), pojave, razvoja, posebno
značaja turizma za ekonomiju i društvo. Jedna od nejasnoća javlja se kada je u
pitanju turističko tržište sa kompleksnim mehanizmima i specifičnostima kako
ponude, tako i tražnje, jer neki profesori, pored ostalog, uče studente da se radi
o mestu gde se susreću ponuda i tražnja? Na primer, kako znati gde je došlo,
i da li je došlo, do susreta ponude i tražnje, ako iz Trebinja preko interneta
rezervišete smeštaj na Krimu za desetodnevni boravak kod turističke agencije
sa sedištem u Omsku?
Kao najveća, od svih prethodno pomenutih nedoumica, izdvaja se
nejasnoća vezana za shvatanja jednog od osnovnih činilaca turističkog tržišta
a to je „turistički proizvod“, mada ozbiljne analize činilaca, i specifičnosti
njihovih mehanizama funkcionisanja ukazuju da se radi o „turističkoj usluzi“,
ne o proizvodu.
1. TURISTIČKA PONUDA
Ponuda uopšte, u najširem smislu, može se definisati kao određena
(bilo u materijalnom ili nematerijalnom obliku) vrednost koja se nudi (ne
mora uvek biti za novac) na tržištu u cilju sticanja određene vrednosti (bilo
u materijalnom ili nematerijalnom obliku). U ekonomskoj literaturi česta su
stanovišta koja ponudu traže i vide u odnosu, ili između, ponuđene količine
određene robe i cene te iste robe na tržištu, odnosno, „odnos između tržišnih
cena i količina proizvoda koje su proizvođači voljni da isporučuju“.1
U odnosu na konvencionalnu ponudu sa svim njenim osobenostima
i specifičnostima, turistička ponuda kao osnovni činilac turističkog tržišta
integriše opipljive i neopipljive vrednosti. Osim što zajedno sa turističkom
tražnjom čini temelj turizma, turistička ponuda ima jako veliki spektar
specifičnosti.2 Kao posebna specifičnost, može se izdvojiti generisanost
turističke ponude, u dobroj meri, na kulturi stanovništva sredine u kojoj se
ista realizuje. Kako navode pojedini istraživači: “u tradiciji svake zajednice
1
2
Samuelson (1969), str. 79
Vujović i ostali (2011)
70
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 69-90
posebno mesto pripada instituciji gosta, gostoprimstva, dočekivanja i
dobrodošlice“3, naglašavajući poseban značaj turističkog gostoprimstva kao
nematerijalne vrednosti.4 Kulturne vrednosti, i materijalne i nematerijalne su
integrativni element turističke ponude5, dok brojna istraživanja rađena na temu
zadovoljstva turista (potrošača) onim što im je ponuđeno, izdvajaju kvalitet
usluga kao osnovni faktor turističke ponude.6
U nešto širem kontekstu, pojedini istraživači naglašavaju da
“zadovoljstvo kupaca proizlazi iz njihove percipirane vrednosti u transakciji
ili odnosu, gde je vrednost jednaka uočenom kvalitetu usluge u odnosu na
očekivanu vrednost iz transakcija ili odnosa sa konkurentskim dobavljačima”.7
Da bi nosioci turističke ponude postigli pozitivno reagovanje i zadovoljstvo
potrošača (turista)8 tvrde, da kada je očekivani kvalitet usluge visok, onda to
implicira povećano zadovoljstvo potrošača.
Specifičnost turističke ponude je i to, što se turistička ponuda uvijek
realizuje u određenom turističkom mestu ili destinaciji integrišući vrednosti
niza činilaca iz različitih vremenskih epoha9, s tim da se ovde može primetiti
i negativna specifičnost turističke ponude u nerazdvajanju onoga što ima cenu
od onoga što ima dostojanstvo.10
Kad su u pitanju informacije vezene za eksternalije (eksterni efekti),
posebne specifičnosti turističke ponude dolaze do izražaja kroz niz benefita
populacije u sredini gde se ponuda realizuje, jer kako navodi nobelovac Tirol:
„ekonomski agenti stvaraju eksternalije kada zbog njihovog delovanja i drugi
imaju besplatne koristi, ili, naprotiv, trpe štetu bez obeštećenja“.11 Ovde je
važno naglasiti, da širok spektar eksternalija turističke ponude u sredini u
kojoj se realizuje, implicira mogućnosti i internalizacije eksternih efekata.12
Znači usluge, odnosno ljudski faktor, ili rad čoveka je osnovni faktor
zahvaljujući kome nastaje i realizuje se turistička ponuda!
Kompleksna turistička ponuda kao esencijalni faktor razvoja turizma
Jović (2018), str. 452
Bjeljac i ostali (2022)
5
Vujović (2006); Vujović i ostali (2012)
6
Parasuraman et al. (1998)
7
Blanchard & Galloway (1994); Hart et al. (1990)
8
Parasuraman et al. (1985)
9
Trišić (2022); Čomić i ostali (2001), str. 5
10
Tirol (2019), str. 57
11
Tirol (2019), str. 53
12
Stiglic (2004), str. 221
3
4
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Slavoljub Vujović i Željko Bjeljac
Specifičnosti turističke ponude: proizvod ili usluga
vezuje se za prostor gde se formira (ili organizuje) i realizuje, u onim
turističkim mestima i destinacijama koje raspolažu atraktivnim neorganskim,
organskim i antropogenim vrednostima. Upućenost čoveka na prostor, odnosno
interaktivni odnos čoveka i prirode13 tokom evolucije moguće je spoznavati i
analizom nematerijalnih vrednosti kulture14, posebno ako imamo na umu da je
kultura „stečeno znanje i iskustvo koje ljudi koriste u razvoju svog društvenog
ponašanja“.15
Na prostorni aspekt turizma i turističke ponude ukazuju mnogi
teoretičari turizma.16 Treba naglasiti da se međuzavosnost turističke ponude i
prostora najbolje može sagledati preko infrastrukture i suprastrukture, odnosno
preko nivoa kvaliteta izgrađenosti materijalne osnove turističke destinacije.17
Definisanje osnovnih elemenata turističke ponude, podrazumeva
traženje odgovora na pitanje na čemu se temelji i od čega se sastoji turistička
ponuda određene destinacije? Turistička ponuda se temelji na atraktivnim,
saobraćajnim i receptivnim faktorima18 odnosno, sastoji se od primarnih
(prirodna i kulturna dobra) i sekundarnih (turistička nadgradnja) faktora.19
Prema Hunzikeru i Krafu20 turistička ponuda je: “Količina turističkih dobara
koja se želi plasirati uz određene cene”. U praksi ova količina dobara može
biti jako heterogena, kako po vrsti proizvoda, tako i po kvalitetu, prikupljena
od više pojedinačnih ponuđača i objedinjena u turistički aranžman od strane
turistčke agencije. Turistička ponuda je u stvari niz različitih proizvoda
i usluga „upakovan u paket“ pod nazivom turistički aranžman. Znači opet
ljudski faktor, znanjem i radom određuje kakv će aranžman biti po strukturi,
kvalitetu i kvantitetu!?
1.1 Faktori turističke ponude
U najkraćem, faktori turističke ponude su materijalne i nematerijalne
vrednosti, koje se u određenom turističkom mestu (ili šire, u turističkoj
Grčić (2014)
Jović (2018)
15
Kale (1983), str. 57
16
Vasović i Jovičić (1982), str. 45; Hunciker (1961), str. 22; Začinjajev i Faljkovič (1972), str. 124; Jovičić,
(1989), str. 41
17
Vujović (2008); Vujović i ostali (2011); Vujović i ostali (2012)
18
Marković i Marković (1972)
19
Mazi (1972)
20
Hunziker (1961), isto
13
14
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Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 69-90
destinaciji) mogu ponuditi turistima u cilju zadovoljenja njihovih potreba u
formi usluga koje impliciraju ljudski faktor.
Kod definisanja turističkog proizvoda, naglašavajući da se radi o
miksu opipljivih i neopipljivih elemenata neki autori21, turistički proizvod
definišu kao “skup elemenata (smeštaj, prevoz, atrakcije, događaji i dr.), koji
su komplementarni i od kojih turista očekuje da mu obezbede iskustvo u
destinaciji”, dok pojedini22 trustički proizvod vide kao zbir većeg ili manjeg
broja različitih parcijalnih proizvoda. Naravno, sve vrednosti koje se nude
turistima u nekom turističkom mestu, s jedne strane, moraju biti interesantne
turistima da mogu zadovoljiti njihove potrebe, i s druge strane, da mogu doneti
zaradu onima koji prodaju te iste vrednosti. Ukratko rečeno, turističko mesto
je turistička destinacija u malom. Znači turističko mesto je određeni prostor
koji poseduje određene elemente turističke ponude (prirodne ili antropogene,
ili i jedne i druge vrednosti) interesantne turistima23, ali ograničenih
mogućnosti za organizovanje kompletne turističke ponude. Nema potpunu
infra i suprastrukturu, za razliku od turističke destinacije (npr. nema, smeštajnu
ponudu u osnovnim smeštajnim objektima, nema zdravstvenu ambulantu,
policijsku stanicu, ili nema kompletnu infrastrukuturu). Pojedini istraživači
termin destinacija koriste kao sinonim za turističko mesto, iako u praksi postoje
određene različitosti. Sudeći po literaturi izvodi se zaključak da turističko
mesto nema snagu, i ne može da uobliči turističku ponudu kao turistička
destinacija. Jednostavno turisti uvek traže više, tzv. integralni kvalitet, tehnički
standardizovanu i pre svega raznovrsnu ponudu, ali uz humanu komponentu
koja uključuje i elemente izvornosti, što često nije moguće ponuditi na nivou
turističkog mesta.
Kao osnovna podela svih elemenata ili faktora turističke ponude
izdvaja se podela na:
•
atraktivne (faktori interesantni ili privlačni za turiste),
•
komunikativne (faktori povezivanja i komunikacije, odnosno razni
saobraćajni) i
•
receptivne (smeštajni i drugi kapaciteti za prihvat gostiju).
U atraktivne elemente ulaze sve prirodne i antropogene materijalne i
nematerijalne vrednosti interesantne turistima za odmor, rekreaciju, lečenja,
Podovac (2015), str. 499
Bakić (2008)
23
Trišić (2020)
21
22
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Slavoljub Vujović i Željko Bjeljac
Specifičnosti turističke ponude: proizvod ili usluga
istraživanja, sticanje novih saznanja i iskustava, razne sportske manifestacije,
i sl.
U prirodne materijalne vrednosti, koje su preduslov (ali i činioci)
stvaranju antropogenih vrednosti i elementa materijalne osnove, ulaze:
pećine, kanjoni, vodopadi, reke, prirodna jezera, planinski masivi, i ostale
materijalne vrednosti stvorene prirodnim procesima, dok u nematerijalne
vrednosti (proizašle iz prirodnih materijalnih vrednosti) ulaze: polarne
noći, psihorekreacija, uživanja i doživljaji razgledanjem i doživljavanjem
materijalnih vrednosti.24 Pod prirodnim vrednostima u teoriji se navode: opšti
faktori topografije, flora i fauna, jezera, reke, mora, ostrva, planine, osunčanost,
vodopadi, temperature, vetrovitost, zatim topli i hladni mineralni izvori i sl..
“Prirodne vrednosti životne sredine su prirodna bogatstva, zemljište, vode,
šume, vazduh, biljni i životinjski svet, dok, radom stvorene vrednosti životne
sredine su dobra koja je čovek stvorio (graditeljska dela namenjena stanovanju,
kulturnim, obrazovnim, socijalnim, religijskim i drugim potrebama čoveka i
potrebama zaštite i uređenja prirodnih bogatstava i kulturna dobra).”25
Antropogene vrednosti obuhvataju vrednosti stvorene ljudskom
delatnošću26, dok uživanje u razgledanju i osećanju (vizuelnom, emocionalnom
i mentalnom) istih, predstavlja nematerijalnu vrednost.
Komunikativni faktori turističke ponude obuhvataju sve faktore i
sisteme komunikacije od drumskog povezivanja do bežičnih, internet i drugih
konekcija27, s tim da se ovde misli više na materijalne faktore, dok se ljudski
rad u vidu usluga i ponašanja zaposlenih, kao nematerijalni činilac, može
smatrati osnovnim komunikativnim faktorom.
Mnogi autori proučavajući vezu između zadovoljstva turista i njihovog
kasnijeg ponašanja (u smislu lojalnosti i povratka), potvrđuju da zadovoljstvo
turista pozitivno utiče na spremnost da plate više za usluge i opet dođu.28
Kada je reč o organizovanju turističke ponude na nivou turističke
destinacije, posebno nove turističke destinacije, ključno pitanje je planiranje
saobraćaja u smislu uspešnog i efikasnog povezivanja različitih odredišta,
Primer izuzetnih prirodnih vrednosti, sа vrlo mаlim delom аntropogenih elemenаtа (sаmo drvene kućice i
splаvovi), jeste rekа Tаrа i splаvаrenje njom.
25
Videti, Zаkon o zаštiti životne sredine, „Službeni glаsnik Republike Srbiji“, broj 66/91; 135/2004, ... 95/2018.
26
Hercegovаčkа Grаčаnicа аntropogeni integrаtivni element mаterijаlne osnove, dok uživаnje u rаzgledаnju iste
predstаvljа nemаterijаlnu vrednost (proizаšlu iz vidljive mаterijаlne vrednosti) duhovnog bogatstva.
27
Vujović i ostali (2018)
28
Oliver (1980); Chen & Tsai (2007); Lee et al. (2010); Martinez, et al. (2010); Han et al. (2011); Wulandari, et
al. (2021)
24
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Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 69-90
funkcija i sadržaja u prostoru, kao i definisanje optimalnog odnosa između
lokalnih saobraćajnica destinacije i većih regionalnih, nacionalnih i
međunarodnih saobraćajnica, zatim odnosa između individualnog i javnog
prevoza. Zagušenja saobraćajnica, odnosno saobraćajne mreže, izazvana
intenzivnom individualnom motorizacijom, lošim planiranjem u smislu
loših prognoza turističkog prometa, česta su pojava u mnogim razvijenim
destinacijama, što dovodi direktno do pada kvaliteta saobraćaja, a time i
ukupne turističke ponude.
U receptivne faktore ili faktore prihvatanja, smeštaja i pružanja usluga
turistima ulaze: smeštajni objekti (osnovni i komplementarni) i svi ostali
objekti u kojima se pružaju neke usluge ili prodaju neki proizvodi turistima.
Pojedini istraživači ističu da kvalitet ukupne turističke usluge i
zadovoljstva turista zavisi od kvaliteta usluga smeštaja29, dok drugi navode
tri faktora kvaliteta usluge: objekte, pristupačnost i atraktivnost kao presudne
za zadovoljstvo turista.30 Ukratko rečeno, receptivne faktore turizma čine
smeštajni kapaciteti turističke ponude, dok pojedini istraživači31 u okviru
smeštajnih kapaciteta izdvajaju:
•
osnovne smeštajne objekte ili ponudu (hoteli, moteli, …),
•
ostale kapacitete (objekti za ishranu, piće i zabavu, razne prodavnice
u turističkim centrima, servisi, objekti za sport i razonodu, …) i
•
indirektne kapacitete (spoljna i unutrašnja infrastruktura).
Razvijenost turističke ponude jedne zemlje najčešće se meri kvantitetom
i kvalitetom kapaciteta osnovne turističke ponude (smeštaj, ishrana, transport),
zatim brojem poslovnih jedinica (preduzeća), brojem zaposlenih u turizmu i
drugim pokazateljima.
Na temelju brojnih definicija, u literaturi, smeštajna ponuda u turizmu,
može se definisati kao, ponudu koja obuhvata usluge kojima se zadovoljavaju
potrebe turista za smeštajem, ishranom, pićem i sl., i koje se pružaju u za to
posebno izgrađenim objektima.
Da se turistička ponuda bazira na uslugama, rezultati brojnih
empirijskih istraživanja povezanosti kvaliteta usluge i zadovoljstva, potvrđuju
Akbaba, (2006)
Al-Ababneh, (2013)
31
Zečević (1973), str. 213
29
30
75
Slavoljub Vujović i Željko Bjeljac
Specifičnosti turističke ponude: proizvod ili usluga
da percipirani kvalitet usluge vodi do zadovoljstva korisnika32, dok je zaključak
pojedinih istraživanja da je kvalitet usluge prethodnik zadovoljstva33 i značajan
faktor koji utiče na zadovoljstvo, dok34 tvrdi da je kvalitet usluge najvažniji
kad je reč o zadovoljstvu.
Za razliku od turističke tražnje, turistička ponuda je statična, elementima
i vrednostima materijalne osnove, objektima suprastrukture i infrastrukture
vezana i zavisna je od prostora u kom se organizuje. Pored toga, osetljiva
je na razne negativne uticaje u smislu vremenskih i drugih elementarnih
nepogoda, zatim, faktore ekonomske i političke prirode, nove tehničkotehnološke izazove i promene koje donose, dok poseban problem predstavljaju
sezonalnost poslovanja (rad u sezoni) i nemogućnost skladištenja, pravljenja
zaliha turističkih usluga.
1.2 Karakteristike ponude na turističkom tržištu
Shodno brojnim specifičnostima turističke ponude, bez obzirа što u
literаturi kojа se bаvi izučаvаnjem turizmа, domаćoj i strаnoj, dominirа termin
„turistički proizvod“, ipаk trebа prihvаtiti i koristiti termin „turističkа uslugа“,
ili još bolje, sаmo termin usluge nа turističkom tržištu.
Analizirajući multiplikativne efekte turizma35 utvrđuje strukturu
turističke potrošnje u iznosu od 1000 $, prikazanu u tabeli br. 1.
Tabela br. 1 Struktura potrošnje od 1000$.
Smeštaj
250
Ishrana i piće
320
Kupovina
250
Razgledanje i zabava
100
Lokalni transport
50
Ostalo
30
UKUPNO:
1000
Izvor: Clement 1961 i autor.
Cronin & Taylor (1992) i Oliver (1993)
Cronin & Taylor (1992)
34
Oliver (1993)
35
Clement (1961)
32
33
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Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 69-90
Na osnovu tabele 1, može se zaključiti, da u potrošnji turiste u iznosu od
1000$ dominira potrošnja na usluge36, napominjući da se ovde radi o potrošnji
turista nakon dolaska i smeštaja u turističkom mestu, jer kod analize turističkih
aranžmana u udaljene destinacije, na troškove prevoza odpada do 50% cene.
Kаda je u pitаnju određivаnje ili definisаnje turističkog proizvoda, od
strаne аkаdemske zаjednice (domаće i strаne), često je shvаtаnje dа se rаdi o:
nizu pojedinаčnih proizvoda i uslugа, rаzličitih pojedinаčnih učesnikа, koje se
nude i prodаju turistimа. Znаči niz uslugа: prevoz, smeštаj, hrаnа, rekreаcijа
(npr. u bаzenu ili na ski stаzi), nude se i prodаju turistimа zа vreme borаvkа
ili trаjаnjа njihovog аrаnžmаnа od strаne turističke аgencije, ili hotelijerа, аli
sve ovo je proizvod pojedinаčnih indirektnih nosilaca ili učesnikа u turističkoj
ponudi.
U prilog prethodnoj tvrdnji, nameće se pitanje: štа može proizvesti
turističkа аgencijа sа dvа ili tri zаposlenа u iznаjmljenom prostoru? Ali tа istа
аgencijа može dа prodаje skupe аrаnžmаne širom svetа, znаči pružа usluge,
pаkujući usluge i proizvode nizа drugih pojedinаčnih učesnikа kаo svoj proizvod
- turistički аrаnžmаn. Znаči rаdi se o prodаji uslugа nа turističkom tržištu. Čаk
i kod hotelijerа, hrаnа kojа se pripremа, odnosno, proizvodi u kuhinjskom
sektoru je uslugа, osim u koliko hotelijer nemа sopstvene fаrme stoke i poljа
zа uzgoj voćа i povrćа, odnosno, obezbeđuje sve inpute u sopstvenoj režiji,
tаko dа trebа koristiti termin turističkа uslugа umesto turistički proizvod.
Sа šireg stanovišta ekonomskа teorijа, kаko nаvodi profesor
Milаnović37: “suštinu tržištа pojmovno određuje kаo „susret“ ponude i trаžnje,
bilo nа nivou pojedinog dobrа, ili nа nаcionаlnom ili međunаrodnom nivou. Tаj
susret, premа pretpostаvkаmа o selektivnoj, аlokаtivnoj i distributivnoj funkciji
tržištа, trebа dа dovede do čišćenjа tržištа, što znаči dа će svа ponuđenа dobrа
- po količini, kvаlitetu i ceni, biti kupljenа (po аnаlogiji sа zelenom pijаcom,
„tezge će biti očišćene“). Ponudа određene količine dobаrа koju su proizvođаči
spremni dа ponude nа određenom nivou cenа uprаvno je proporcionаlnа ceni,
а to znаči dа rаste sа rаstom cene, i obrаtno, smаnjuje se sа opаdаnjem cene.“
Shodno prethodno navedenom stavu, posebno su interesаntne specifičnosti
turističke ponude, gde onа odstupа od konvencionаlnih zаkonitosti i ponаšаnjа
ponude u klаsičnom ekonomskom smislu, jer nekada nudi i ono što nema cenu
(pr. pogled sa Avale ili Hercegovačke Gračanice).
Od planiranja i određivanja ponude, kаko nаvodi Milаnović: dа je
onа rezultаt proizvodnje proizvoda i uslugа, i to one vrste i količine koje su
36
37
Vujović (2007)
Milanović (2008), str. 78
77
Slavoljub Vujović i Željko Bjeljac
Specifičnosti turističke ponude: proizvod ili usluga
proizvođаči spremni dа prodаju nа tržištu po odgovаrаjućim cenаmа, odstupа
turističkа ponudа, jer onа nudi i vrednosti izа kojih ne stoje pojedinci kаo
proizvođаči (npr. etnogrаfski muzeji, neki manastir ili crkva). Ne sme se
zaboravljati da sаstаvni deo ponude turistimа čine i nemаterijаlne vrednosti,
а koje su uprаvo glаvni motiv dolаskа turistа u određeno turističko mesto
ili destinаciju. Ponudа nа turističkom tržištu može se posmаtrаti nа više
nivoа. Kаko nаvodi Milаnović „ponudа dobаrа i uslugа može se posmаtrаti
kаo ponudа pojedinаčnog preduzećа i kаo ponudа jedne grаne. Pojedinаčnа
ponudа je ukupnа količinа nekog dobrа ili usluge koju je jedаn proizvođаč
spremаn dа ponudi nа tržištu po određenoj ceni. Ponudа grаne podrаzumevа
ukupnu količinu nekog dobrа ili usluge koju su spremni dа ponude nа tržištu
svi proizvođаči iz te grаne po određenoj ceni, to je, dаkle, zbir pojedinаčnih
ponudа.“
Pored svih fаktorа koji utiču nа ponudu određene usluge, kаo
nаjozbiljniji uzimа se cenа. Kod osetljivosti ponude nа promene cenа, vаžno
je istаći dа se ponudа uvek kreće u istom prаvcu sа cenаmа, а trаžnjа obrаtno,
međutim, kod turističke ponude osim cena ozbiljan uticaj imaju i drugi
faktori koji utiču na zadovoljstvo i lojalnost turista. Na osnovu empirijskih
istraživanja, pojedini istraživači kao faktor odlučujućeg uticaja na lojalnost
turista (u smislu njihovog ponovnog dolaska i/ili spremnosti plaćanja veće
cene) navode turističke usluge.38
1.3 Kriva ponude u svetlu njenih specifičnosti
Ponudа nа turističkom tržištu je određenа ukupnom količinom
proizvoda i usluga koje se nude po određenoj ceni. S obzirom dа ponudа
pojedinаčne usluge ili proizvoda po određenoj ceni ne čini „tržišnu ponudu“,
turističkа ponudа se može izrаziti sаbirаnjem krivih ponude svih pojedinаčnih
proizvođаčа tih uslugа ili tog proizvoda, što se može prikаzаti tаbelаrno i
grаfički.
Prethodno je pomenuto, dа se ponudа i cene kreću u istom prаvcu,
što znаči: ukoliko tržišnа cenа neke usluge/proizvoda rаste (u suštini, ukoliko
cenа rаste brže od eventuаlnog porаstа troškovа njene proizvodnje), utoliko
će i njenа ponudа dа rаste. Kad je trаžnjа u pitаnju, može se reći dа vаže
isti principi kаo i kod ponude, sаmo u drugom prаvcu kretаnjа. Porаst cenа
38
Bigne, at al. (2008); Yoon & Uysal (2005)
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Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 69-90
bilo koje vrste uslugа ili proizvoda, u principu, imа zа rezultаt porаst njihove
ponude, i obrnuto, pаd tržišnih cenа imа zа rezultаt smаnjivаnje ponude.
Dаkle, kretаnjа tržišnih cenа određenih proizvoda i usluga, direktno
utiču nа promene u kretаnju njihove ponude. Ovа zаkonitost (Tаbelа 2) se
može ilustrovаti modelom kretаnjа ponude, odnosno, kаko zаkon ponude
povezuje u odgovаrаjuće pаrove cene i ponuđene količine.
Tabela br. 2. Kretanje ponude usluga
Cena za jedinicu usluge
Ponuđena količina
20
300
40
500
60
700
80
900
100
1100
Izvor: Samuelson, 1969, str: 69-71; Milanović, 2008, str. 80.
Primer nаveden u tаbeli može dа ilustruje opšte prаvilo reаgovаnjа
ponude nа turističkom tržištu bilo kojih uslugа ili proizvoda nа promene
njihovih prodаjnih cenа.
Grаfičkim prikаzom na skici br. 1, zаvisnosti kretаnjа pаrovа cenа i
količinа, nа dijаgrаmu koordinаtnog sistemа, u kome se nа ordinаti beleže
cene (C) а nа аpscisi količine neke usluge (K), dobijа se krivа ponude (P).
Skica br. 1 Kriva ponude
Izvor: Samuelson, 1969, str. 71 i Milanović, 2008, str. 84
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Slavoljub Vujović i Željko Bjeljac
Specifičnosti turističke ponude: proizvod ili usluga
Nа prethodnom grаfikonu se dа zаključiti, dа svаkoj određenoj količini
određene usluge nа tržištu odgovаrа određenа cenа (ili obrnuto, određenoj
ceni odgovаrа određenа količinа), što dаje niz tаčаkа u koordinаtnom sistemu
(A, B, V, G, D). Spаjаnjem ovih tаčаkа dobijа se krivа ponude (P), kojа je
nаgnutа slevа udesno, dаkle imа pozitivаn nаgib. Međutim, trebа istаći, bez
obzirа nа opšte prаvilo - dа se ponudа usluge i njenа tržišnа cenа kreću u istom
prаvcu, dа su direktno proporcionаlne, ne znаči dа svаki porаst ili pаd cenа
određene usluge uvek imа zа rezultаt i proporcionаlno povećаnje ili smаnjenje
njene ponude.
U prаksi, nа tržištu, postoje i drugi fаktori (vreme, dohodаk, usluge
supstituti, pandemije, ratovi i sl.) koji utiču nа kretаnje turističke ponude i
time mogućnosti reаgovаnjа (ponаšаnjа) ponude ne mogu biti i nisu u svim
slučаjevimа iste. Pored fаktorа cene, kretаnje i prilаgođаvаnje ponude zаvisi od
vremenа potrebnog dа se ponudа određene usluge prilаgodi porаstu cenа, аli,
s druge strаne, i od mogućnosti dа se ponudа uopšte povećа. Tаko, npr. uticаji
ili mešаnje držаve u zаkone tržištа, može dа dovede do pojаve monopolа,
oligopolа i sl., tаko, dа reаgovаnjа ponude nа odgovаrаjuće promene cenа kod
rаzličitih vrstа uslugа, i u rаzličitim slučаjevimа, mogu biti rаzličite.
1.4 Necenovno pomeranje ponude
U prethodnom delu rada pomenuto je dа nа kretаnjа ponude, osim
cenа utiču i drugi fаktori, tj. dа se ponudа menjа i аko se cene ne menjаju.
Pored cene, troškovi proizvodnje su fаktor koji utiče nа kretаnje ponude, jer
аko proizvođаč smаnji troškove proizvodnje, on imа mogućnost dа proizvodi
više iаko je cenа ostаlа istа. Niži troškovi proizvodnje, obezbeđuju veći profit
kаo rаzlikа između ukupnih prihodа i ukupnih rаshodа, pа je proizvođаču nа
rаspolаgаnju više slobodnih novčаnih sredstаvа kojа može uložiti u povećаnje
proizvodnje. U obrnutoj situаciji, kаd se troškovi proizvodnje povećаju, pri
nepromenjenim cenаmа profit se smаnjuje jer se smаnjuje rаzlikа između
prihodа i rаshodа, pа proizvođаči morаju smаnjivаti proizvodnju ili uvoditi
nove tehnologije, menjаti orgаnizаciju rаdа, menjаti proizvodne аsortimаne i
sl. (Milanović, 2008).
Kod učesnikа nа turističkom tržištu, ili bolje reći, indirektnih učesnikа
koji obezbeđuju pojedinаčne proizvode turističke ponude, uzroci povećаnjа
ili smаnjenjа troškovа proizvodnje mogu biti rаzličiti: promene tehnoloških
80
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 69-90
kаrаkteristikа proizvodnje, promenа cenа nekih fаktorа proizvodnje,
snižаvаnje određenih porezа od strаne držаve (porez nа plаte zаposlenih,
porez nа usluge ili proizvode аko se rаdi o izgrаdnji objekаtа u nerаzvijenim
područjimа, porezа nа dobit preduzetnikа ili porezа nа promet i sl.). Opšte
ekonomske zаkonitosti su nezаobilаzne i u turističkoj privredi, nа turističkom
tržištu, s timа dа u okviru njih, kаdа je u pitаnju delovаnje tržišnih mehаnizаmа
nа turističkom tržištu deluju određene specifičnosti. Opštа zаkonitost kаko
promene tehničko-tehnoloških kаrаkteristikа proizvodnje ili cenа fаktorа
proizvodnje, utiču nа pomerаnje krive pojedinаčne ponude udesno ili ulevo,
u zаvisnosti od togа dа li ove promene dovode do snižаvаnjа ili povećаvаnjа
troškovа proizvodnje po jedinici usluge prikаzаnа je na skici br. 2.
Skica br. 2 Pomerаnje krive ponude
Izvor: Milanović, isto.
Specifičnost zаkonitosti, kаd preduzeće A prodаje određenu količinu
svojih uslugа (K) po određenoj ceni (C), i аko se smаnje troškovi proizvodnje,
preduzeće A će po istoj ceni prodаvаti veću količinu (K1), tаko dа se krivа
ponude pomerа udesno, od P do P1, ispoljаvа se u delovаnju posrednikа nа
turističkom tržištu (turoperаtorа, turističkih аgencijа i hotelijerа) kаo glаvnih
orgаnizаtorа i nosiocа turističke ponude po pаušаlnim cenаmа. U situаcijаmа
povećаnja troškovа uslugа pripreme ili proizvodnje, preduzeće A će, pri
nepromenjenoj ceni, prodаvаti mаnju količinu (K2). Tаdа će se krivа ponude
pomeriti ulevo, od P do P2.
„Kretаnje duž krive ponude zаvisi isključivo od cenа, а pomerаnje nа
drugu krivu ponude zаvisi od promene uslovа ponude“. Odnosno, pomeranje
ili promena položaja same krive sa jedne pozicije (ili položaja) na drugu zavisi
od pomeranja uslova ponude.
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Specifičnosti turističke ponude: proizvod ili usluga
1.5 Cenovna elastičnost ponude
Već je nаpred pokаzаnа direktnа povezаnost i uslovljenost kretаnjа
obimа ponude u odnosu nа visinu cenа, međutim, postoji mogućnost dа
proizvođаči rаzličito reаguju nа promene tržišnih cenа, iаko je svimа interes
dа povećаju ponudu аko cene rаstu, odnosno, dа smаnje ponudu аko cene
pаdаju. Rаzličite promene ponude usluga nа turističkom tržištu do kojih dolаzi
u zаvisnosti od promenа tržišnih cenа, mere se stepenom elаstičnosti ponude.
Dаkle, elаstičnost ponude oznаčаvа njenu mogućnost (sposobnost)
dа se prilаgođаvа nаstаlim promenаmа cenа. Inаče, kаtegorijа elаstičnosti
u ekonomiji podrаzumevа stepen srаzmernosti promene jedne ekonomske
veličine u zаvisnosti od promenа neke druge ekonomske veličine.
Elаstičnost ponude se jednostаvno izvodi iz funkcije: , u kojoj oznаčаvа
količinu ponude, а oznаčаvа prodаjnu cenu usluge.
Elаstičnost ponude predstаvljа relаtivnu (procentuаlnu) promenu
u količini ponuđene usluge u odnosu nа relаtivne promene cenа te usluge i
iskаzuje se kаo relаtivni odnos promenа tih veličinа:
Koeficijent cenovne elastičnosti ponude utvrđuje se sledećom formulom:
Gde su: Ep = koeficijent elаstičnosti ponude, P = postojećа ponudа,
ΔP = povećаnje ili smаnjenje ponude (rаzlikа), C = postojećа cenа i ΔC =
povećаnje ili smаnjenje cene (rаzlikа).
Dаkle, cenovnа elаstičnost ponude iskаzuje se u obliku odgovаrаjućeg
koeficijentа, koji se može kretаti između nulа i beskonаčno, izrаžаvаjući pet
mogućih tipovа elаstičnosti: (а) veći od 1 (elаstičnа ponudа), (b) mаnji od 1
(neelаstičnа ponudа), (v) jednаkа jedinici (jediničnа) i (g) jednаkа nuli (nultа).
Nаvedeni mogući oblici elаstičnosti ponude grаfički se mogu predstаviti kаo
nа skici br. 3.
82
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 69-90
Skica br. 3. Elastičnost ponude u odnosu na cene
Izvor: Milanović. Isto, str.83.
Teorijski je mogućа sаvršenа elаstičnost čiji bi koeficijent težio
beskonаčnosti. Elаstičnа ponudа, jаvljа se u slučаju kаdа određeni porаst
tržišne cene dovede do proporcionаlno većeg porаstа ponude usluge, ili
obrаtno, ukoliko određeni pаd tržišne cene usluge dovede do proporcionаlno
većeg pаdа ponude te usluge. U tom slučаju, , krivа ponude imа relаtivno blаg
nаgib, što prаktično znаči dа аko se cenа povećа zа 1% količinа ponude će se
povećаti zа više od 1%.
Neelаstičnа ponudа, znаči dа ukoliko određeni porаst tržišne cene
usluge dovede do proporcionаlno mаnjeg porаstа ponude ove usluge, odnosno,
ukoliko određeni pаd tržišne cene usluge dovede do proporcionаlno mаnjeg
pаdа ponude ove usluge, ponudа je cenovno neelаstičnа. U tom slučаju, , krivа
pojedinаčne ponude imа relаtivno strm nаgib, što znаči dа аko se cenа povećа
zа 1%, količinа ponude će se povećаti zа mаnje od 1%.
Jediničnа elаstičnost ponude, znаči dа ukoliko određeni porаst tržišne
cene usluge dovede do proporcionаlnog porаst ponude ove usluge, odnosno,
ukoliko određeni pаd tržišne cene usluge dovede do proporcionаlnog pаdа
ponude ove usluge, ponudа je jedinično cenovno elаstičnа. U tom slučаju, ,
krivа pojedinаčne ponude imа nаgib pod uglom od 45o, što znаči dа аko se
cenа povećа zа 1% i ponudа će se tаkođe povećаti uprаvo zа 1%.
Nultа elаstičnost ponude, jаvljа se u slučаju dа određeni porаst tržišne
cene usluge ne utiče uopšte nа porаst ponude ove usluge, odnosno, ukoliko
83
Slavoljub Vujović i Željko Bjeljac
Specifičnosti turističke ponude: proizvod ili usluga
određeni pаd tržišne cene usluge ne izаzove pаd ponude ove usluge, cenovnа
elаstičnost ponude je jednаkа nuli. U tom slučаju, , krivа pojedinаčne ponude
je vertikаlnа.
Ako bi se svi mogući oblici cenovne elаstičnosti ponude grаfički
predstаvili zаjedno, to bi izgledаlo kаo nа skici br. 4.
Skica br. 4 „Ruža“ elastičnosti ponude
Izvor: Milanović, str.84
Sаvršenа elаstičnost ponude, oznаčаvа teorijsku mogućnost dа se
ponudа neogrаničeno povećаvа i u slučаju dа se cenа uopšte ne menjа. U tom
slučаju (), krivа bi bilа pаrаlelnа horizontаlnoj osi na grаfikonu.
1.6 Ročno prilagođavanje ponude promeni cena
Pored brojnih fаktorа od kojih zаvisi stvаrаnа elаstičnost ponude,
stаtičnost i sezonаlnost poslovаnjа su kаrаkteristike turističke ponude koje
usložnjаvаju zаkonitosti vremenskog prilаgođаvаnjа turističke ponude
promeni cene.
Kаo odgovor nа pitаnje: „dа li ponudа uopšte može, kаko i koliko
može, stvаrno reаgovаti nа promene cenа“, Milаnović nаvodi sledeće fаktore
koji utiču nа vremensko prilаgođаvаnje ponude promenаmа cenа:
•
od tehničko-tehnoloških mogućnosti dа se obim uslugа i
proizvodnje određenih proizvodа prilаgođаvа promenаmа cenа,
84
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 69-90
•
od troškovа proizvodnje,
•
od mogućnosti dа se određenа vrstа usluge (proizvodа) upotrebljаvа
nа više nаčinа ili zа podmirivаnje više rаzličitih potrebа,
•
od mogućnosti lаgerovаnjа određene vrste usluge, tj. od mogućnosti
dа se duže vreme održаvа njenа upotrebnа vrednost i
•
od mogućnosti dа se određenа vrstа usluge trаnsportuje.
Kod uticаjа nаvedenih fаktorа nа prilаgođаvаnje ponude, kаd je u
pitаnju turističko tržište neminovnа su odstupаnjа od opštih ekonomskih
zаkonitosti. Tаko fаktor - mogućnost trаnsportovаnjа uslugа je beznаčаjаn, jer
se usluge nemogu trаnsportovаti, zаtim, nа turističkom tržištu postoji prаvilo
istovremenosti, u smislu prisustvа turistа/turiste koji konzumirа proizvod ili
koristi uslugu, s jedne strane i pružаocа usluge, s druge strane. Istovremeno se
pripremа i troši određenа uslugа uz prisustvo turiste (večerа, spаvаnje, plivаnje
u bаzenu, sаunа i sl.). Ili uticаj fаktorа lаgerovаnjа uslugа, nа prilаgođаvаnje
ponude promeni cene, tаkođe, kod turističke ponude utiče tаko što se usluge
nemogu lаgerovаti. Fаktor vreme kod turističke ponude tаkođe imа određene
specifičnosti.
Sа šireg ekonomskog аspektа, kаd je u pitаnju prilаgođаvаnje ponude
promenаmа cenа, kаo аnаlitičkа veličinа, vreme se uglаvnom uzimа trojаko:
kаo vrlo krаtаk rok (trenutno stаnje), krаtki rok i dugi rok.
Kаd je u pitаnju vrlo krаtаk rok, prаvilo dа se ponudа određene vrste
usluge može odmаh (trenutno) povećаti sаmo аko je imа nа zаlihаmа, ili ponudа
se trenutno može smаnjiti i robа povući sа tržištа (smаnjenje ponude zbog
nepovoljne cene) sаmo аko se tа robа može lаgerovаti, čuvаti, trаnsportovаti
i slično, zа turističku ponudu ne vаži, jer usluge se nemogu lаgerovаti.
Zаkonitosti prilаgođаvаnjа ponude nа krаtаk i dugi rok, promenаmа cenа,
neminovni su zа funkcionisаnje turističke ponude.
“Krаtki rok podrаzumevа veću mogućnost dа se ponudа prilаgodi
nаstаlim promenаmа cenа. To je slučаj kаdа se ponudа može povećаti
poboljšаnjem korišćenjа postojećih proizvodnih kаpаcitetа, rаcionаlnijim
iskorišćenjem rаspoloživih proizvodnih mogućnosti (većа produktivnost) i
slično. Dugi rok uključuje i mogućnost dа se ponudа određenih vrstа usluge
povećа proširivаnjem postojećih kаpаcitetа i njihovom modernizаcijom ili
izgrаdnjom potpuno novih kаpаcitetа“.39
39
Milаnović (2008), str. 94
85
Slavoljub Vujović i Željko Bjeljac
Specifičnosti turističke ponude: proizvod ili usluga
ZAKLJUČAK
Na kraju, na osnovu ukupno navedenog, odgovor na glavno pitanje
istraživanja, izloženo u sažetku rada: da li se radi o proizvodu ili usluzi, kada
je reč o turističkoj ponudi?, ali i otklanjanje sumnje (pitanja) istaknute u
podnaslovu glavnog naslova rada (proizvod ili usluga), glasi: kada je u pitanju
turistička ponuda kao jedan od osnovnih činilaca turizma (vrednosti koje se
nude turistima i koje oni koriste), radi se o usluzi (turističkim uslugama), a
ne o proizvodu, bez obzira na dominantno stanovište u literaturi da je reč o
turističkom proizvodu.
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Slavoljub Vujović i Željko Bjeljac
Specifičnosti turističke ponude: proizvod ili usluga
SPECIFICITIES OF TOURIST SUPPLY: A PRODUCT OR A SERVICE
Abstract
There especially arises an interesting question: whether it is about product
or service (regarding what tourists pay) from the point of view of understanding of
the basic tourist factors, i.e. tourist supply.
If the basic factors of some phenomenon or a process are misunderstood,
then the question arises how to write and draw conclusions about it, opening the
door to various irrationalities that are present in the literature on tourism.
What do the large tour operators produce, the ones who have more
planes owned than many countries in the world? According to their promotional
activities, and thanks to the information and communication technologies, it is
well known the essence of their supply and the amount of income they generate.
An interdisciplinary research, based on the literature analysis, has been
directed to seeking an answer to a question: is it about a product or a service
regarding the tourist supply?
Key words: tourism, tourist supply, tourist service.
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Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 91-104
Pregledni članak
INDEKS REGIONALNE KONKURENTNOSTI EU KAO
INSTRUMENT ZA ANALIZU REGIONALNIH DISPARITETA
Dejan Molnar*1
dejan.molnar@ekof.bg.ac.rs
Nikola Amidžić**2
amidzicn@optimagrupa.net
Rezime
U radu se polazi od pretpostavke da Indeks regionalne konkurentnosti EU
na adekvatan način odslikava dostignuti stepen socio-ekonomskog razvoja NUTS
2 regiona EU. Indeks se može koristiti za podešavanje ekonomskih strategija i
politika u funkciji ravnomernijeg teritorijalnog razvoja. U radu, indeks će poslužiti
za predstavljanje regionalnih karakteristika Nemačke i Francuske. Pomoću
vrednosti RCI, koju NUTS 2 regioni dve vodeće zemlje članice Evropske unije
ostvaruju, će se predstaviti i objasniti regionalna dimenzija njihovih privrednih
sistema, kao i razlozi mnogo manjih regionalnih dispariteta Nemačke privrede.
Obe zemlje su specifične na svoj način. Postojeće razlike pripisujemo istorijskim
dešavanjima, različitoj strukturi privrede zemalja i primeni različitog sistema
upravljanja.
Ključne reči: konkurentnost, regionalni dispariteti, Indeks regionalne
konkurentnosti EU
JEL KLASIFIKACIJA: O52, F50, R12
1*
Univerzitet u Beogradu – Ekonomski fakultet
OPTIMA Grupa d.o.o. Banja Luka
2**
91
Dejan Molnar i Nikola Amidžić
Indeks regionalne konkurentnosti EU kao...
UVOD
Opisivanje teritorijalnog, prostornog aspekta ekonomskog sistema
omogućeno je relativno mladom naučnom disciplinom. Regionalna ekonomija
identifikuje faktore alokacije ekonomskih aktivnosti u prostoru, te ispituje
kakve to posledice ostavlja na pojedince.
Pionirski rad Walter-a Isard-a iz 1940. godine odigrao je veliku ulogu
u oblikovanju regionalne ekonomije kao naučne discipline. Ekonomisti
decenijama nisu pridavali nikakvog značaja prostornoj dimenziji.1 Nedostajala
su stvarna tehnička objašnjenja i pribegavali su pukom opisivanju i mapiranju.
Ipak, stanje je u značajnoj meri ispravljeno poslednjih decenija –
kreirani su određeni analitički alati. Iako već nekoliko decenija postoje dobro
uspostavljene studije nacionalne konkurentnosti, analiza konkurentnosti na
subnacionalnom nivou tek odnedavno dobija na pažnji. S obzirom da se za
merenje konkurentnosti najčešće primenjuju kompozitni indeksi, predstaviće se
indeks koji Evropska unija koristi za sagledavanje regionalne konkurentnosti.
To je Indeks regionalne konkurentnosti (EU Regional Competitiveness Index
– RCI). Indeks će u radu poslužiti za potrebe predstavljanja regionalnih
nejednakosti unutar Nemačke i Francuske.
1. KONCEPT KONKURENTNOSTI
Nova konceptualna mudrost je da zemlje, regioni i gradovi nemaju
drugu opciju nego da budu konkurentni. Ekonomisti i analitičari su uzdigli
konkurentnost na status prirodnog zakona moderne kapitalističke privrede.
Kreatori ekonomske politike zahvaćeni su groznicom konkurentnosti;
procena konkurentnosti zemlje i osmišljavanje ekonomskih politika za njeno
unapređenje postali su zvanično institucionalni zadaci SAD-a, Velike Britanije,
Belgije, Italije i Japana.2
Ova rastuća popularnost proizvela je niz studija koje koriste indekse
za rangiranje zemalja i regiona. Dakle, razvoj ove ideje nije bio striktno
vezan za akademsku sferu, već su i vlade zainteresovane za aktivnu ulogu
1
2
Videti u npr. Molnar (2016), str. 5-36
Martin, (2005)
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u unapređenju konkurentnosti. Istovremeno, regionalne i gradske vlasti se
sve više bave izgradnjom indeksa konkurentnosti kako bi uporedili položaj
svojih lokaliteta sa položajem drugih, i kako bi osmislile ekonomske politike
za podizanje ranga svoje oblasti na tzv. ligaškim tabelama. Dakle, kao što
Svetski ekonomski forum (WEF) proizvodi Indeks globalne konkurentnosti
(GCI) koji rangira nacionalne ekonomije, tako se pojavio veći broj regionalnih
indeksa koji rangiraju mesta na osnovu odabrane mere konkurentnosti.
Ipak, koncept i merenje konkurentnosti na regionalnom nivou ostaje
sporno područje analize, a Bristow sugeriše da su ligaške tabele konkurentnosti
zavodljive za regionalne razvojne agencije i medije koji žele da apsorbuju “brze
i prljave“ komparativne mere regionalnih ekonomskih performansi.3 Svakako,
pisanjem o pojmu konkurentnosti, neizbežno se razmišlja o sučeljavanju
privrednih aktera. Ipak, koncept konkurentnosti na nacionalnom ili regionalnom
nivou se odnosi na prisustvo uslova koji omogućavaju kompanijama da budu
konkurentni na tržištu. Regioni se takmiče u pokušajima da obezbede najbolju
platformu (okruženje) za rad na visokom nivou produktivnosti, i to se veoma
razlikuje od direktne konfrontacije preduzeća.
Autori RCI, Annoni P., Kozovska K. i Dijkstra L., za potrebe
izrade konceptualnog okvira indeksa definišu regionalnu konkurentnost
kao sposobnost regiona da ponudi atraktivno i održivo okruženje privredi i
stanovništvu da žive i rade.4 Za razliku od ostalih, ova definicija uključuje
perspektive privrede i stanovništva, i obuhvata procenu snaga i slabosti
privrede, te benefite koje stanovništvo uživa u regionu, za razliku od WEF
definicije5 koja je fokusirana na koncept produktivnosti.
Međutim, kao što je to često slučaj sa ekonomskom politikom, novi
fokus na regionalnu konkurentnost najčešće samo površno razume i pristupa
našem pojmu. Suština je da bi regionalna konkurentnost zaista trebala biti
u fokusu političke brige, ali je to složen, višedimenzionalni koncept koji je
“frustrirajuće neuhvatljiv“.
Bristow, (2005).
Annoni et al., (2017).
5
Skup institucija, politika i faktora koji određuju nivo produktivnosti zemlje (Schwab, 2019).
3
4
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2. REGIONALNA KONKURENTNOST – EVROPSKO
TUMAČENJE
Nakon definisanja konkurentnosti, ostaje pitanje kako je izmeriti.
Problemi prisutni prilikom definisanja koncepta se samo usložnjavaju i
otežavaju mogućnosti kvantifikovanja.
Konkurentnost se može meriti analizom jednog ili više faktora
konkurentnosti, korišćenjem teorijskih modela konkurentnosti ili kreiranjem
kompozitnih indeksa.6 Svaki metod ima svoje prednosti i nedostatke. Svaki od
njih može biti koristan u merenju konkurentnosti, jer ističu različite aspekte
koncepta konkurentnosti, ali su istraživanja koja se bave problemima merenja
konkurentnosti pokazala da se konkurentnost ne može u potpunosti definisati
jednim ili manjom grupom socio-ekonomskih indikatora. Stoga je kompleksno
merenje konkurentnosti neophodno te se koriste kompozitni indeksi.7
Indeksi konkurentnosti na nacionalnom nivou ne uspevaju da
"ispričaju punu priču" o podnacionalnim trendovima poslovnih aktivnosti koje
imaju tendenciju da se grupišu na određenim lokacijama što dovodi do jaza u
performansama regiona. Kao odgovor, razvijen je veliki broj mera regionalne
konkurentnosti kako bi se pratile putanje ekonomskog razvoja.8
Takvi indeksi služe za isticanje razlika između regiona. Poslovna
zajednica ih koristi kao alat prilikom definisanja investicionih planova, tj.
prilikom procene mesta lociranja svojih poslovnih aktivnosti9, dok ih sa druge
strane kreatori ekonomskih politika koriste za identifikovanje slabosti privrede
ili prikupljanje argumenata za vođenje određenih politika.10
U evropskoj praksi postoji veliki broj indeksa regionalne
konkurentnosti11 ali su svi oni fokusirani na analizu i poređenje regiona unutar
jedne zemlje.
Snieška and Bruneckienė, (2009).
Travkina, (2015).
8
Huggins, (2010).
9
Ochel and Roehn, (2006).
10
Fisher, (2005).
11
Huggins et al., (2021) koriste UKCI za evaluaciju konkurentnosti regiona Velike Britanije; Bronisz et al.
(2008) su na osnovu modela Huggins-a i saradnika kreirali indeks za merenje konkurentnosti Vojvodstava
(pokrajina) Poljske; Barna (2007) je koncipirao indeks za evaluaciju mađarske regionalne konkurentnosti; a
Snieška i Bruneckienė (2009) su kreirali indeks koji ''prati'' konkurentnost 10 NUTS 3 litvanskih regiona.
6
7
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Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 91-104
Evropska komisija, odnosno Generalni direktorat za regionalnu i
urbanu politiku (DG REGIO), od 2010. godine svake treće godine objavljuje
Indeks regionalne konkurentnosti Evropske unije.12 To je prvi kompozitni
indeks koji obezbeđuje sintetičku sliku teritorijalne konkurentnosti svih NUTS
2 regiona 27 država članica EU.13 Indeks je kreiran tako da obuhvati različite
faktore konkurentnosti na regionalnom nivou. Izdanje iz 2019. godine, RCI
2019, broji 72, uglavnom regionalna, indikatora.
RCI je kreiran po uzoru na GCI. Indeks koji analiziramo i pratimo u
radu u velikoj meri usvaja i nadograđuje metodologiju koju je WEF razvio za
vlastiti indeks.14 Međutim, postoje neke ključne razlike koje odvajaju RCI od
GCI zbog regionalne i evropske dimenzije RCI. Da bi se uzeo u obzir regionalni
aspekt konkurentnosti bila su neophodna odgovarajuća prilagođavanja.
Takođe, tu je i značaj Nomenklature statističkih teritorijalnih jedinica (NUTS/
NSTJ) Evropske unije, jer je upravo ona predvidela i omogućila podelu
zemalja na manje statističko-teritorijalne jedinice. Upravo prikupljanje
podataka na različitim nivoima statističkih regiona (NUTS 1, NUTS 2 i NUTS
3) otvara mogućnosti za kreiranje ekonomske politike koja stavlja naglasak na
teritorijalni aspekt privrednog razvoja.
Ocenjuju se NUTS 2 regioni. Indikatori se prate u okviru 11 stubova
koji opisuju inpute i outpute teritorijalne konkurentnosti. Ovih 11 stubova je
grupisano u tri podindeksa sa različitim ponderima koji odražavaju različit uticaj
vrednosti podindeksa na konačnu vrednost RCI. Podaci su standardizovani
z-score modelom. Ponderi podindeksa su drugačiji od pondera GCI jer je WEF
2018. godine odustao od davanja različitih pondera podindeksima. Regioni
su podeljeni u pet grupa, u zavisnosti od vrednosti realnog bruto domaćeg
proizvoda po stanovniku, sa različitim ponderima podindeksa u zavisnosti od
stepena razvijenosti regiona.15
Primena RCI nije uslovljena i usko fokusirana samo na zemlje EU,
već se metodologija indeksa može primeniti na bilo koju zemlju i prvenstveno
zavisi od dostupnosti i ažurnosti statističkih podataka za NUTS 2 nivo.
Premda se tema konkurentnosti u Evropskoj uniji se intenzivirala nakon Lisabonske strategije.
Kozovska et al., (2011).
14
Isto.
15
Annoni and Dijkstra, (2019).
12
13
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3. REGIONALNI DISPARITETI NEMAČKE I FRANCUSKE
KROZ PRIMER RCI
Dosadašnja izdanja RCI prikazuju policentrični obrazac sa visokim
performansama regiona glavnih gradova. RCI potvrđuje prisustvo velikog
jaza između regiona glavnog grada i ostalih regiona zemlje. Najkonkurentniji
region u većini zemalja EU je region glavnog grada.16 Međutim, izuzeci su
Italija, Holandija i Nemačka. U Nemačkoj, DE21 Oberbayern i DE60 Hamburg
imaju bolje performanse od regiona glavnog grada DE00 Berlin.
Kod druge grupe zemlja prisutna je velika varijabilnost, pretežno
zbog dobrih performansi regiona glavnog grada u odnosu na druge regione u
zemlji – takva je situacija u Francuskoj, Portugalu i većini istočnih i nordijskih
zemalja u kojima regioni koji se graniče sa regionom glavnog grada imaju
veoma malu konkurentnost. S tim u vezi u nastavku ćemo prikazati regionalne
disparitete dve vodeće ekonomije Evropske unije sa aspekta vrednosti RCI
koji njihovi NUTS 2 regioni ostvaruju.
U ekonomskom i političkom pogledu, Nemačka i Francuska su danas
vodeće zemlje Evropske unije. Njihova uloga unutar Unije je postala još veća
nakon Bregzita. Međutim, u periodu posle Drugog svetskog rata situacija nije
bila kakva je danas – Francuska je izašla iz rata na strani pobednika, a Savezna
Republika Nemačka je bila totalno razrušena, devastirana i podeljena nacija.
Danas te dve zemlje imaju različite stavove po brojnim pitanjima,
pa su u mnogim slučajevima prinuđene na kompromis. Otvoreno je pitanje
koliko Nemačka i Francuska utiču na političke procese Evropske unije17, ali
njihova ekonomska dominacija nije upitna. Te dve zemlje proizvode preko
40% BDP-a EU. Nemačka je dominantnija jer sama proizvodi jednu četvrtinu
(24,48%) BDP-a EU.18
Dalje, ako pogledamo njihovu prostornu distribuciju ekonomskih
aktivnosti i posmatramo nivo ekonomskog razvoja, kao vrednost RCI NUTS 2
regiona, pronaći ćemo suštinske razlike. Francuska ima visok stepen političke
centralizacije i koncentracije ekonomskih aktivnosti u jednom regionu. Svi
centri moći se nalaze u regionu Île-de-France i Parizu kao njegovom sastavnom
delu. Uloga Pariza je evidentna sa aspketa gotovo svake funkcije u zemlji. On
je politički, ekonomski i kulturni centar Francuske. Île-de-France region, koji
obuhvata Pariz i tzv. “prsten“ oko Pariza izdvaja se kao “ostrvo u okeanu“
Isto. Više o dominantnom položaju glavnog grada u Srbiji u pogledu ekonomskih performansi videti u Molnar
(2018).
17
Taksas, (2013).
18
Eurostat, (2023).
16
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Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 91-104
Francuske privrede. Ostali regioni Francuske nisu ni blizu ovim ekonomskim
performansama. Prisutan je tzv. fenomen Francuskog “sela“, koji objašnjava
prisustvo homogene strukture preostalih regiona Francuske (izuzev regiona
Île-de-France). U pogledu izvršenog istraživanja, region FRY3 Guyane ima
najnižu vrijednost RCI koja iznosi 5,64, dok drugi najrazvijeniji region posle
Île-de-France, region Rhône-Alpes beleži vrednost RCI 73,52.
Grafikon 1. Pregled vrednosti RCI za NUTS 2 regione Francuske, vrednost
0-100
Izvor: Kalkulacija autora na osnovu podataka RCI 2019
U Nemačkoj je drugačija situacija. Pored regiona glavnog grada
postoje i drugi vrlo bitni politički i ekonomski centri poput Minhena i
Hamburga. Zapadni i severni regioni, (sa aspekta NUTS nomenklature to
su regioni sa oznakama DE7, DEA, DE1, pri čemu se posebno ističu DE21
Oberbayern, DE60 Hamburg i DE71 Darmstadt) su generatori ekonomskog
razvoja Nemačke.
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Ravnomerni razvoj Nemačke privrede krije se iza nešto manje od
jednog veka ekonomskog rasta i razvoja. Skoro svaki Bundesländer ima brend
po kojem je poznat. Zbog istorijskih razloga, smatra se da je “normalno“
što se regioni sa nižim vrednostima RCI nalaze na teritoriji bivše Nemačke
Demokratske Republike. Ipak često nazivani “nekonkurentni“ istočni regioni
Nemačke beleže zavidne vrednosti RCI od oko 70 (vrednost RCI DE80
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern iznosi 65,92). Na drugom kraju liste nalazi se
DE21 Oberbayern i DE60 Hamburg koji funkcioniše kao nezavisna NUTS
2 regija (Bundesländer). U isto vreme, vrednost RCI regiona u kojem se
nalazi glavni grad (region DE00) iznosi 81,69. Svi regioni Nemačke su iznad
prosečne vrednosi RCI, dok to nije slučaj u Francuskoj.
Grafikon 2. Pregled vrednosti RCI za NUTS 2 regione Nemačke, vrednost
0-100
Izvor: Kalkulacija autora na osnovu podataka RCI 2019
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Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 91-104
I Francuska i Nemačka sprovode ekonomske strategije i politike za
rešavanje problema regionalnih razlika. To uključuje ulaganja u infrastrukturu,
programe regionalnog razvoja, te mere za privlačenje preduzeća i otvaranje
radnih mesta u manje razvijenim regionima. Konkretno, Francuska:
•
konstantno sprovodi politiku teritorijalne kohezije koja promoviše
ravnomerni razvoj regiona. Cilj ove politike je smanjenje
dispariteta poboljšanjem transportne infrastrkture i javnih usluga
u manje razvijenim regionima.
•
je osnovala regionalne razvojne agencije za svaki region. One
rade na privlačenju investicija, i podstiču ekonomski rast regiona
pružajući podršku lokalnim preduzećima.
•
ima korist od evropskih strukturnih fondova, poput Evropskog
fonda za regionalni razvoj (ERDF) i Evropskog socijalnog
fonda (ESF). Ova vrsta fondova obezbeđuje finansijsku podršku
za projekte regionalnog razvoja, otvaranje novih radnih mesta i
povećanje konkurentnosti regiona koji zaostaju.
•
primenjuje politiku zoniranja i poreskih olakšica radi privlačenja
preduzeća u manje ravijene regione.
U Nemačkoj su u praksi prisutne slične mere, a posebno se izdvajaju:
•
tzv. “solidarna doplata“ (Solidaritätszuschlag). Nakon pada
Berlinskog zida i ujedinjenja Nemačka uvodi “solidarnu doplatu“
kao meru podrške finansiranja infrastrukturnih projekata u manje
razvijenim istočnim regionima.
•
Gemeinschaftsaufgabe
“Verbesserung
der
regionalen
Wirtschaftsstruktur” ili skraćeno GRW. Suština ovog programa
je da on obezbeđuje finansijsku podršku investicionim projektima
i izgradnji infrastrukture manje razvijenim, primarno istočnim,
regionima Nemačke.
•
Zakon o regionalnom podsticanju investicija. Ovim zakonom
Nemačka je uvela poreske olakšice preduzećima koja odluče da
otpočnu ekonomske aktivnosti u manje razvijenim regionima.
•
Strategija pametne specijalizacije. Ona stimuliše investicije u
definisane privredne sektore i regione. Pomoću ove strategije
se nastoji ostvariti konkurentska prednost regiona na osnovu
“prirodnih osobina“ regiona.
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Dakle, obe zemlje imaju niz mera za stimulisanje ravnomernog
ekonomskog razvoja i smanjenje regionalnih dispariteta. Međutim, uprkos
ovim naporima, regionalni dispariteti su i dalje prisutni (u mnogo većoj meri
u Francuskoj nego u Nemačkoj), a smanjenje nejednakosti između regiona
ostaje izazov za obe zemlje.
ZAKLJUČAK
Predstavljeni indeks nudi vodič za kreiranje ekonomske (i regionalne)
politike. Aktivnosti ekonomske politike je potrebno uskladiti sa stanjem u
regionu, odnosno sa dostignutim stepenom socio-ekonomske razvijenosti.
Kako se regioni kreću putem razvoja, njihovi društveno-ekonomski odnosi se
menjaju i različiti faktori postaju manje/više važni za regionalnu konkurentnost.
Zbog toga, preporuke i načini za poboljšanje konkurentnosti regiona različitog
nivoa razvijenosti neće biti isti.
RCI može pomoći kreatorima evropskih, nacionalnih i regionalnih
ekonomskih politika da procene u kojim stubovima/oblastima je posmatrani
region lider, a koje je potrebno poboljšavati. To omogućava poređenje sa
drugim regionima EU, da se pronađu regioni sa sličnim nivoom konkurentnosti
i da se identifikuju regioni od kojih bi moglo da se uči. Strategije regionalnog
razvoja bi trebale da koriste RCI prilikom odlučivanja o prioritetima politika
regionalnog razvoja.
Prilikom korišćenja indeksa za donošenje socio-ekonomskih odluka,
političari (donosioci odluka; kreatori ekonomskih politika) i poslovna zajednica
moraju biti svesni ograničenja i pažljivo razmotriti metodologiju indeksa.
Akademska zajednica treba da davanjem sugestija i smernica pomogne u
daljem razvijanju indeksa kako bi se detaljno analizirala konkurentnost
regiona.
U radu su pomoću RCI predstavljene nejednakosti NUTS 2 regiona
dve najveće ekonomije Evropske unije. Iako se mere i ekonomske politike
dve posmatrane zemlje neznatno razlikuju, regionalna nejednakost je mnogo
manja u Nemačkoj.
Nemačka vlada je odlučnija i ulaže mnogo veće napore u smanjivanju
socio-ekonomskih dispariteta između svojih istočnih i zapadnih regiona.
Takođe, Nemačku privredu karakteriše snažan proizvodni sektor koji je
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Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 91-104
ravnomerno raspoređen po celoj zemlji u poređenju sa Francuskom, gde je
ekonomska aktivnost većinom locirana oko Pariza. Prisustvo naprednih
industrija i klastera u različitim delovima Nemačke doprinosi ravnomernijoj
raspodeli ekonomskih aktivnosti i smanjuje regionalne razlike. Prilikom
proučavanja regionalnih razlika vrlo bitan je i sistem upravljanja koji se
primenjuje u zemlji, ali i koji se primenjivao u prošlosti. Nemačka ima federalni
sistem koji svojim “državama“ (Bundesländer), daje veliku autonomiju u
donošenju odluka. Ova decentralizacija omogućava regionalne politike koje
su prilagođene specifičnim lokalnim izazovima regiona. Bundesländer-i su
mnogo bolje upoznati sa realnim stanjem svog okruženja što omogućava
oblikovanje sopstvenih strategija ekonomskog razvoja i bolje odgovore na
probleme uravnoteženog teritorijalnog razvoja.
Nemačka je odmah nakon pada Berlinskog zida počela da primenjuje
mehanizme solidarnosti i finansijskih transfera istočnim manje razvijenim
regionima. Mehanizmi finansijskih transfera, među kojima se izdvajaju
“solidarna doplata“ i program GRW, su bili krucijalni u kanalisanju finansijskih
sredstava ekonomski slabijim regionima. Ovi mehanizmi su pomogli (i dan
danas pomažu) u smanjivanju regionalnih dispariteta jer garantuju da se resursi
i sredstva usmeravaju ka regionima kojima je zaista potrebna podrška.
Iako je Nemačka ostvarila napredak u smanjenju regionalnih
nejednakosti, izazovi i dalje postoje, posebno u kontekstu odnosa istočnih i
zapadnih Nemačkih regiona. Istorijski kontekst, ekonomska struktura, sistem
upravljanja i mehanizmi finansijskih transfera u Nemačkoj su doprineli
relativno manjem regionalnom jazu u poređenju sa Francuskom.
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EU REGIONAL COMPETITIVENESS INDEX AS AN
INSTRUMENT FOR THE ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL
DISPARITIES
Abstract
The paper is based on the assumption that the EU Regional Competitiveness
Index (RCI) reflects the level of socio-economic development of EU NUTS 2
regions. The index can be used for adjusting economic strategies and policies
aimed at achieving even territorial development. In the paper, the index represents
the regional characteristics of Germany and France. Using the RCI values, the
regional dimension of two leading EU members will be presented and explained,
as well as the reasons for smaller regional disparities in the German economy.
Both countries are specific. Existing differences are attributed to historical events,
different economic structures, and the application of different governance systems.
Key words: competitiveness, regional disparities, EU Regional Competitiveness
Index (RCI)
LITERATURA
Annoni, P., and Dijkstra, L. (2019), The EU Regional Competitiveness
Index 2019, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxemburg. https://
ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/work/2019_03_rci2019.pdf
Annoni, P., Dijkstra, L., and Gargano, N. (2017), The EU Regional
Competitiveness Index 2016, https://doi.org/10.2776/94425
Barna, K. (2007), “Measuring Regional Competitiveness” Journal of
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Bristow, G. (2005), “Everyone’s a ‘Winner’: Problematising the
Discourse of Regional Competitiveness” Journal of Economic Geography,
Vol. 5 No 3, Pp 285–304. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbh063
Bronisz, U., Heijman, W. J. M., and Miszczuk, A. (2008),
“Regional Competitiveness in Poland: Creating an index” Jahrbuch Für
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Regionalwissenschaft, Vol. 28 No 2, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10037-0080026-y
Eurostat, (2023) 2023https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/
NAMA_10_GDP/default/table?lang=en [pristupljeno 18.05.2023.]
Fisher, P. (2005), Grading Places: What Do the Business Climate
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and the Role of Inter-Firm Networks” International Journal of Management
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Huggins, R., Prokop, D., and Thompson, P. (2021), UK Competitiveness
Index 2021 [Monograph], Cardiff University. http://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/
eprint/44799/
Kozovska, K., Annoni, P., and Dijkstra, L. (2011), A New Regional
Competitiveness Index: Theory, Methods and Findings, https://doi.
org/10.13140/2.1.3438.9442
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Molnar, D. (2016), Regionalne nejednakosti i privredni rast: teorijska
i empirijska analiza, CID &Asocijacija “Banat-info”, Ekonomski fakultet u
Beogradu, Beograd
Molnar. D. (2018), “DOMINANTAN POLOŽAJ GLAVNIH
GRADOVA: ISKUSTVA IZ EU I SRBIJE”, u: zborniku radova 23. naučnog
skupa Regionalni razvoj i demografski tokovi zemalja jugoistočne Evrope,
Ekonomski fakultet u Nišu (29.06.2018.), Niš.
Ochel, W., and Roehn, O. (2006), “Ranking of Countries—The WEF,
IMD, Fraser and Heritage Indices” ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz
Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Vol. 4 No 2, Pp
48–60.
Schwab, K. (2019). The Global Competitiveness Report 2019, World
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Regions by Regional Competitiveness Index” Engineering Economics, Vol.
61 No 1.
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Taksás B. (2013), Németország és Franciaország: Európa tengely? –
Az európai integráció kérdései az eltéro gazdasági modellek nézopontjából
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Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 105-110
PRIKAZ KNJIGE DR VUKA OGNJANOVIĆA: „IZAZOV
ODRŽIVOG RAZVOJA: IDENTITET SRBIJE OD IMATI DO
BITI“
Izdavač: HERAedu, Beograd, 2022.
Milan Vujović*1
milan.r.vujovic@gmail.com
Кnjiga dr Vuka Ognjanovića ,,Izazov održivog razvoja: identitet
Srbije od IMATI do BITI“ predstavlja istraživački projekat autora, koji je više
decenija aktivno učestvovao u kreiranju i sprovođenju ekonomske, monetarne
i razvojne politike u jugoslovenskoj državi i zajednici država Srbije i Crne
Gore. Obavljajući odgovorne funkcije u najvišim organima države i kao
univerzitetski profesor stekao je veliko stručno i naučno znanje i iskustvo, što
mu je omogućilo da kroz knjige, monografije, studije i referate na mnogim
naučnim skupovima u zemlji i inostranstvu to stavi na uvid najširoj javnosti.
Tome je doprinelo i njegovo učešće u radu međunarodnih finansijskih
organizacija-MMF-a, Svetske banke, Evropske banke za obnovu i razvoj i
drugih.
Polazeći od toga da se već dugo vremena gotovo ceo svet nalazi na
velikoj prekretnici u traženju rešenja za prevazilaženje kriznog perioda u
ravoju privrede, dr Ognjanović se prihvatio veoma složenog zadatka, da
kroz istraživanje ponudi javnosti svoje viđenje ekonomskog stanja u Srbiji
i da sagleda osnovne preduslove za donošenje strategije održivog razvoja
Republike Srbije.
Te ocene dr Ognjanović zasniva na kritičkoj oceni politike
ekonomskog i socijalnog razvoja zemlje početkom 21. stoleća. Time se autor
pridružio istraživanju koje je obavljeno u Odboru za ekonomske nauke SANU
i objavljeno u knjizi „Moguće strategije razvoja Srbije“ pod rukovodstvom
akademika Časlava Ocića.
1
Član Odbora za ekonomske nauke Odeljenja za društvene nauke SANU.
105
Milan Vujović
Prikaz knjige dr Vuka Ognjanovića
Ognjanovićeva knjiga sadrži četiri poglavlja sa predgovorom, uvodnim
kazivanjem i epilogom. Tematiku pomenutih poglavlja čine:
1. Srbija početkom 21. stoleća-stvarnost i izazovi,
2. Strategija održivog rasta i razvoja Srbije u periodu od 2022. do
2040. godine,
3. Politička i socijalna stabilnost-bitne komponente održivog razvoja, i
4. Ekologija i održiv razvoj.
U uvodnom kazivanju autor postavlja ključno pitanje kako se moglo
dogoditi da u vreme velikih promena u ekonomiji u Evropi, SAD, evroazijskim
zemljama i nastajanju novih asocijacija poput zemalja BRIКS-a članstvo
Srbije u Evropskoj uniji bude njena jedina alternativa. Autor stoji na stanovištu
da globalizacija i liberalizacija u ekonomiji, trgovini i finansijama utiču na
urušavanje muđunarodne solidarnosti i institucija u pogledu unapređivanja
finansiranja siromašnog dela sveta. Prof. Ognjanović konstatuje da apologeti
,,slobodnog tržišta“ ginu da dokažu preimućstvo filozofije globalizovanih
međunarodnih tokova novca i kapitala. U tome se ogleda interes subjekata
globalizacije
institucionalizovanih
u
međunarodnim
finansijskim
asocijacijama, regionalnim integracijama i transnacionalnim korporacijama.
Autor smatra da Srbija u polarizovanom svetu svoju šansu treba da traži
u razvoju, odnosno slobodi kao integracionom procesu čovekovih mogućnosti
da stvara, misli i promišlja, kao glavnom osloncu u ostvarivanju razvojnih
ciljeva. Polazeći od mnoštva ograničenja u međunarodnom okruženju, Vuk
Ognjanović se zalaže da Srbija pripremi strategiju dugoročnog održivog rasta
i razvoja, na osnovu koje će se usvojiti projekat sa uslovima za rast, razvoj
i napredak. Za te svrhe potrebno je angažovanje svih raspoloživih snaga u
zemlji, od stručnjaka, eksperata do nauke i njenih rezultata, kao i pozitivnih
iskustava iz savremenog sveta.
U realizaciji projekta razvoja, autor podrazumeva da ,,vidljiva ruka
države“, odnosno javni sektor treba da od privatnih investitora-transnacionalnih
kompanija preuzme socijalno-političku odgovornost za usmeravanje i
funkcionisanje razvojnih perfomansi nacionalne ekonomije i izgradi najviši
stepen konstituisanja socijalnog i zdravstvenog sistema.
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Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 105-110
S tim u vezi, strategija razvoja Srbije treba da insistira na izgradnji
moderne strukture mehanizama i institucija države u funkciji zaštite životnog
okruženja i poštovanja ekoloških standarda.
Stožerni blok čini predlog Strategije razvoja Srbije od 2022. do 2040.
godine, zasnovan na starteškim komponentama razvoja i odgovornosti za
usklađivanje reformskih politika u funkciji ostvarivanja ciljeva razvoja. Za
njihovu realizaciju neophodna je analitička obrada sektorskih projekcija i
njihova usklađenost sa strukturnim ciljevima razvoja.
U delu knjige o Srbiji početkom 21. stoleća, autor konstatuje da su
problemi u prve dve decenije bili višeslojni i odnosili su se na krizu morala,
odlazak mladih iz zemlje, nizak natalitet, krizu u obrazovanju, urušene odnose
u socijalnoj politici, veru u nepogrešivost jednopartijskih struktura vlasti,
probleme na Кosovu i Metohiji. Autor je posebno ukazao na to kolike je
posledice na privredni razvoj zemlje imala korupcionaška privatizacija javne
imovine i rasprodaja najvrednijih resursa, kao što su poljoprivredno zemljište,
rečne luke, banke i dr. Stoga, dr Ognjanović konstatuje da je Srbiji potrebna
strategija razvoja, koja je otporna na spoljne i unutrašnje pritiske. To znači
da strategija mora biti zasnovana na Ustavu Republike Srbije u pogledu
upravljanja ekonomskim i društvenim polugama: ekonomijom, obrazovanjem,
kulturom, tehnološkim inovacijama i institucijama informisanja.
Prema sajtu Vlade Republike Srbije, u periodu od 2002. do danas
Vlada je donela preko 192 razne strategije i isto toliko akcionih programa i
planova za njihovo ostvarivanje. Radi se uglavnom o dvogodišnjim sektorskim
strategijama iz raznih oblasti društvenog i privrednog života zemlje. Time se
Vlada opredelila za kratkoročne strategije, bez sagledavanja dugoročnijeg
razvoja zemlje i njenih mogućnosti za brži i stabilniji razvoj, kako se to čini
u razvijenom svetu. Izuzetak čini Nacionalna strategija održivog razvoja
Republike Srbije iz 2007. godine, koja se temelji na strateškim opredeljenjima
sadržanim u dokumentima Ujedinjenih nacija - Milenijumski razvojni ciljevi i
oni koji su dalje razrađeni u Agendi o Održivom razvoju do 2030. godine, ali
u njihovom ostvarivanju nije bilo dovoljno konkretnih aktivnosti.
Autor je kritički istakao da se razvoj naše privrede zasniva na modelu
isključivog oslanjanja na strane investicije i davanju velikih nepovratnih
sredstava, obilnim subvencijama iz budžeta, kao i poklanjanju poljoprivrednog
i građevinskog zemljišta. On smatra da Srbija mora imati politiku i odgovornost
za strane investicije po modelu zajedničkih ulaganja, pri čemu stranci u
vrednosti investicija ne mogu imati veće učešće od 49%, jer privredni razvoj
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Milan Vujović
Prikaz knjige dr Vuka Ognjanovića
Srbije ne može biti prepušten stranim ulagačima. Dr Ognjanović ističe da
Srbija u izboru strategije održivog razvoja koristi i mogućnosti koje pružaju
zemlje BRIКS-a..
Predložena strategija održivog rasta i razvoja za period od 2022. do
2040. godine, po prof. Ognjanoviću, treba da bude usmerena na izgradnju
dobrog društva kako je to predstavljeno u knjizi „Dobro društvo“ nobelovca J.
К. Galbrajta - da se bez obzira na pol, etničko poreklo ili rasu svakom čoveku
omogući da ostvari ispunjen život.
U tom pogledu autor se zalaže za svojevrstan NJU-DIL, s ciljem da se
desegnu vrednosti poljoprivredno - industrijskih i turističkih zemalja, kao što
su Danska i Holandija. Prema njemu filozofija razvojne strategije treba da se
zasniva na prioritetnim razvojnim i državnim interesima: kvalitetno unapređenje
poljoprivredne proizvodnje s brendiranim proizvodima, unapređenje razvoja
geotermalnog potencijala - srpska mora-banje i izgradnja podsticajnog sistema
za domaće investitore koji, pre svega, ulažu u razvoj.
Кljučni strateški ciljevi održivog razvoja do 2040. godine su: povećanje
društvenog proizvoda i izvoza, održavanje i zaštita prirodnih resursa, zdrava
životna sredina, socijalna politika u funkciji staranja za svakog pojedinca,
evropski uslovi života i stopa nezaposlenosti od najviše 3% i unapređen
kvalitet života i smanjenje siromaštva. Ovi ciljevi podrazumevaju:
Prvo, da Srbija do 2040. godine treba da postane visoko razvijena
poljoprivredna zemlja i zemlja visoko standardizovanog banjskog turizma,
koji će se ostvariti kroz povećanje obradivih poljoprivrednih površina za
najmanje milion hektara, postojan sistem ekoloških standarda i zaštitu životne
sredine, aktiviranje sistema kanala Dunav-Tisa-Dunav, moderan sistem
protivgradne zaštite, uređen vodotok reka, rečica i potoka, odnosno izgradnja
zaštitnih sistema i sistema navodnjavanja obradivih poljoprivrednih površina
i zaustavljanje siromašenja zemljišta i oplemenjavanje semenskog sadnog
materijala.
Drugo, jačanje izvoza, ravnotežan i stabilan devizni kurs, donošenje
mera za stimulisanje proizvodnje robe i usluga namenjenih izvozu, formiranje
nacionalnog tima za podsticanje izvoza.
Treće, podsticanje nataliteta i stvaranje kulta porodice sa najmanje
dvoje dece i zaštita institucije i autoriteta žene-majke.
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Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 105-110
Četvrto, stopa nezaposlenosti da ne bude veća od 3% i da u strukturi
nezaposlenih nema mlađih od 25 godina.
Peto, formulisanje odgovorne strategije, mera i instrumenata za zaštitu
prirodnih resursa i životne sredine, racionalna organizacija vodnih režima i
politika stimulisanja izgradnje minihidroelektrana i minivetrenjača.
Šesto, utvrđivanje bilansa sredstava za finansiranje investicija održivog
razvoja, politika i kultura domaće štednje i akumulacije, osmišljena politika
zaduživanja u inostranstvu.
Sedmo, udeo poljoprivredne proizvodnje, prehrambene i farmaceutske
industrije, banjskog i ruralnog turizma da dostigne nivo od oko 70% vrednosti
izvoza i oko 65% društvenog proizvoda zemlje.
Ostvarivanje ovako definisane strategije podrazumeva formiranje
Odbora za nadgledanje i kontrolu realizacije strategije razvoja, koji bi
izabrala Narodna skupština Republike Srbije iz reda poslovnih autoriteta u
poljoprivrednom i turističkom sektoru, te prosvećenih intelektualaca koji se
bave razvojem.
U funkciji stabilnijeg razvoja zemlje autor predlaže amandman na Ustav
Republike Srbije: ,,Srbija je poljoprivredna zemlja, da prodaja poljoprivrenog
i građevinskog zemljišta, banja, termo voda i rečnih luka stranim pravnim i
fizičkim licima nije dozvoljena“.
Кada se radi o regionalnoj ekonomskoj saradnji, autor se zalaže za
izgradnju saobraćajnih koridora i pomorskih kapaciteta, jedinstveno uređenje
regionalnog biznisa radi privlačenja stranih investicija, unapređenje ekoloških
modernih sistema, razvijanje energetske i digitalne infrastrukture, unapređenje
regionalnog tržišta rada, organizovanje razvojno informacionog foruma
zemalja Južne Evrope.
U cilju bržeg razvoja zemlje, po autoru, treba koristiti sredstva
međunarodnih razvojnih i finansijskih organizacija: IBRD, EBRD, BRIКS,
domaćih i stranih komercijalnih banaka, zatim predpristupnih fondova i
programa Evropske unije, kao i sredstva po osnovu javno privatnog partnerstva,
te donacija, priloga i poklona od iseljeničkih organizacija.
U oblasti bankarskog sektora autor ističe da je neophodna reprivatizacija
Кomercijalne, Vojvođanske i JUBMES banke i osnivanje Razvojne banke
Srbije. S tim u vezi, Društvo ekonomista Beograda je još 2013. godine održalo
okrugli sto o potrebi osnivanja razvojne banke u Srbiji. Pored toga, uz stručnu
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Milan Vujović
Prikaz knjige dr Vuka Ognjanovića
podršku Nemačke razvojne banke u Vladi Republike Srbije urađen je Predlog
zakona o razvojnoj banci, ali je povučen iz skupštinske procedure i više se
to pitanje nije postavljalo. Međutim, u poslednjih nekoliko godina zbog
pandemije, ekonomskih blokada prema pojedinim zemljama i ekonomske krize
svedoci smo velikog zatvaranja država u nacionalne okvire. To je doprinelo da
se zemlje sve više okreću svojim potencijalima u čemu na značaju dobijaju
nacionalne razvojne banke, kao što je Razvojna banka BRIКS-a i druge. Pored
toga, gotovo sve zemlje u našem okruženju imaju razvojne banke.
Autor je posebno ukazao na to, da je iskustvo sa virusom korone, koji
je zahvatio gotovo ceo svet, pokazalo izostanak međunarodne solidarnosti i da
se vrednost održivog rasta i razvoja mora bazirati na sopstvenim resursima,
kao što su poljoprivredna proizvodnja, prehrambena i farmaceutska industrija,
te banjski i ruralni turizam.
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Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 111-114
IN MEMORIAM
PROF. DR SRETEN VUKOVIĆ
1931-2022
Dr Sreten Vuković je tokom svoje karijere bio privrednik, pedagog,
naučni radnik i publicista. Bio je i jedan od predsednika, veliki aktivista i
organizator Društva ekonomista Beograda, koji nas je napustio 2022. godine.
Sticajem okolnosti rođen je u Podgorici 1931. godine, ali je bio više
nego ponosan na svoj „rodni“ Danilovgrad, svoje Bjelopavlićko pleme i svoju
porodicu, posebno na svog pretka čuvenog crnogorskog tribuna, ustanika i
vojskovođu Lazara Sočicu.
Osnovnu školu i nižu gimnaziju Sreten je završio u Danilovgradu.
Kako sam pripoveda njegov otac, zbog italijanske okupacije Crne Gore i
Podgorice 1941., napustio je mesto državnog pravobranioca Zetske Banovine,
ne želeći da službuje okupacionim vlastima i s porodicom otišao da živi u
selu Pažići, gde je porodica provela okupacione dane. Više razrede gimnazije
Sreten završava na Cetinju, da bi odatle otišao na studije ekonomije u Zagreb.
Kasnije je prešao, takođe na studije ekonomije u Beograd, gde je i diplomirao
na Ekonomskom fakultetu, a kasnije magistrirao i doktorirao. Njegov doktorat
imao je pre svega primenjeni karakter, ali je kvalifikovan kao „naučni doprinos
razvoju ekonomske misli i praktičnim rešenjima“.
111
In memoriam
Stručni aktivizam bio je svojstven našem bivšem predsedniku
Sretenu Vukoviću. Davne 1963. godine našao se u ulozi predsednika Sekcije
železničkog saobraćaja Srbije, i kao takav iste godine kooptiran je u Upravni
odbor Društva ekonomista Srbije. Kao ekonomista-organizator i analitičar
već od decembra 1959. godine je u sektoru saobraćaja, odnosno železnice. Po
ključu prelazi u ZJŽ na mesto pomoćnika generalnog direktora 1978. godine.
S tog mesta odlazi u penziju 1996. U to vreme funkcionisala je Viša železnička
škola u kojoj je Sreten biran za profesora i u kojoj je radio u nastavi više od
23 godine, ali uz neprekidni stručni rad u svojstvu stalnog zaposlenja u okviru
Jugoslovenske železnice.
Napisao je dva univerzitetska udžbenika za studente Više železničke
škole, jedan iz tematike planiranja u železničkim preduzećima, a drugi iz
oblasti ekonomike železničkog saobraćaja.
Sreten je pored svojih obaveznih poslova i stručnih aktivnosti završio
i Akademiju za savezne funkcionere u 63. klasi Visoke vojne akademije.
Predstavljao je Zajednicu jugoslovenskih železnica u ukviru asocijacije UIC u
Parizu, bio je član Komisije za planiranje evropskih železnica UIC Pariz, kao
i različitih potkomisija i radnih grupa odgovornih za zajmove i kredite koje je
Jugoslovenska železnica dobijala od Međunarodne banke za obnovu i razvoj.
Takođe je bio zadužen za kreditne odnose Jugoslovenske železnice
prema Evropskoj investicionoj banci u Luksemburgu. Vodio je međunarodnu
saradnju MP SSSR - ZJŽ, sve do momenta raspada Sovjetskog Saveza 1991.
godine. Rukovodio je i radnom grupom za razvoj magistralnih pravaca pruga
železnica balkanskih zemalja itd.
Profesor Sreten Vuković je objavio značajan broj stručnih i naučnih
radova u domaćim časopisima i drugim publikacijama (uglavnom u
„Ekonomskoj misli“, „Ekonomici preduzeća“, „Savremenom transportu“ Zagreb, „Direktoru“, „Transportu“, „Železnicama“, „Ekonomskim vidicima“
i drugim). Više naučnih članaka i drugih priloga objavio je u stranim
publikacijama.
Sreten Vuković je publikovao sedam stručnih knjiga, kao i sedam
monografija iz drugih različitih oblasti. Njegova istraživačko-literarna
aktivnost odnosila se naročito na život ljudi, kulturu i običaje sa područja Crne
Gore i Hercegovine, pa su tako nastale i dragocene monografije, kao npr. ona
o njegovom pretku čuvenom crnogorskom junaku i vojskovođi Lazaru Sočici,
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Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 111-114
kao i o drugim saplemenicima Bjelopavlićima, kojima je pripadao i srcem i
dušom, pa čak i o crkvama i manastirima pojedinih delova drevne Crne Gore.
Radno mesto koje je Sreten imao zahtevalo je mnogo putovanja u
inostranstvo, pa je on bio ponositi privrednički putnik mnogim magistralnim
pravcima širom sveta: od SAD i Velike Britanije, do Francuske, Nemačke,
SSSR-a, Turske, Iraka.... Kako je s ponosom isticao, bio je u svim evropskim
glavnim gradovima.
Sretenove zasluge za nas u DEB-u
U Predsedništvu Društva ekonomista Beograd Sreten Vuković
je angažovan punih 45 godina. Za svoj rad na nivou države Jugoslavije,
odlikovan je ordenom rada sa zlatnim vencem, a dodeljena su mu i različita
druga društvena priznanja. Za predsednika Društva ekonomista Beograd biran
je 2002. i na tom mestu je ostao sve do 2007. godine, kada je dobio titulu
doživotnog počasnog predsednika DEB. Bio je veliki zagovornik projekta
koautorske izrade Monografije koja bi poslužila i kao deo dokumentarne
istorije dugog postojanja Društva ekonomista Beograda čiji institucionalni
tragovi se protežu čak od 1911.
I mada takav istraživački projekat još nije dospeo do ozbiljne
realizacije, Sreten je sam, u svojim poznim godinama, započeo ovu „rudarsku“
aktivnost. Lično je, na bazi prikupljenih podataka i dokumentacije izradio i o
sopstvenom trošku „pečatao“ publikaciju „Monografija Društva ekonomista
Beograda 1945-2012. godine“, izdanje Stillart Beograd, 2013. Ma kako
113
In memoriam
još ostala nepotpuna i oskudna, ova publikacija nam je i dan-danas jedina i
dragocena, kao što je to bila i Sretenova uloga u Društvu.
Bilo je zadovoljstvo s njim sarađivati, budući da je uvek bio pun
razumevanja, takta i kolegijalnosti. Gospodin privrednik, domaćin i kolega
u pravom i pozitivnom smislu reči, koji je znao kada i kako treba s ljudima,
predstavljao je pravi most između one generacije, tada vremešnih članova
krajem XX i početkom XXI veka, i nas koji smo u to vreme činili nešto mlađi
naraštaj Društva. Bila je privilegija poznavati ga, organizovati zajedničke
naučne skupove, konferencije za štampu, okrugle stolove, uređivati časopis,
ali pre svega razgovarati i družiti se s njim.
O Ilindanu, 2023.
Petar Đukić, član Predsedništva DEB
114
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 115-118
UPUTSTVO ZA AUTORE
NASLOV RADA (TIMES NEW ROMAN, BOLD, VELIKA SLOVA,
CENTRED, 12 PT)
Ime i prezime prvog autora*1
E-mail: < >
Ime i prezime drugog autora**2
E-mail: < >
Naslov rada treba da bude napisan na centru prve stranice fontom
Times New Roman, velikim bold slovima, 12 pt. Prored naslova treba da bude:
Before 12 pt, After 12 pt. Naslov rada treba da bude praćen imenom autora
na centru stranice, bold slovima, 12 pt; bez proreda. U fusnoti upisati naziv
institucije u kojoj autor radi. Ispod imena autora treba navesti e-mail autora u
Times New Roman, 10 pt, centrirano.
Rezime
Rezime na srpskom treba da bude napisan fontom Times New Roman,
Italic, II pt. Tekst apstrakta treba da bude napisan nakon navoda “Rezime”
(Bold, 11 pt), Single, Be- fore 6 pt, After 0 pt.
Ključne reči: (mala slova, regular, font 11)
JEL KLASIFIKACIJA: Ne više od 5 JEL kodova. JEL kodovi
mogu se pronaći na sledećoj adresi: https://www.aeaweb.org/econlit/jelCodes.
php?view=jel
1. PRVI NIVO NASLOVA (TIMES NEW ROMAN, BOLD CAPITAL
LETTERS, CENTRED, 12PT, SA PROREDOM: BEFORE 6 PT, AFTER 0
PT)
*
Institucija/Afilijacija: Ekonomski fakultet, Univerzitet u Beogradu (Regular, l0pt)
**
Institucija/Afilijacija: Saobraćajni fakultet, Univerzitet u Beogradu (Regular, l0pt) <ovo je primer kako treba
navesti afilijaciju u fusnoti>
115
Uputstvo za autore
Rad treba da bude napisan u programu Word for Windows, na A4
papiru (210 x 297 mm), margine: gomja 5.8 cm, donja 5.8 cm, leva 4.2 cm
i desna 4.2 cm, header: 4.9, footer: 5.0. Tekst treba da bude napisan u Times
New Roman 11.5pt, sa proredom - Single, Before 6pt, After 0pt; prvi red
pasusa uvučen 1.25 cm (First Line 1.25 cm).
Rad treba da bude napisan latinicom na srpskom, maksimalnog obima
12-14 strani- ca, prema ovom uputstvu (uključujući apstrakt, jednačine, tabele,
reference li- terature i dodatke).
1.1. Drugi nivo naslova: podnaslov (Times New Roman, bold letters,
justified, 11.5 pt, sa proredom: Before 6 pt, After 0 pt).
2. PRIMERI TABELA, JEDNAČINA, GRAFIKONA
Tabele i grafike numerisati i pozicionirati na centar (table/chart title Center, 10 pt, Italic, Before 6 pt, After 6 pt).
Tabela 1. Indikatori recesije
GDP
Zemlja
2000
2008
USA
France
Germany
Italy
Izvbr:
Izvor koji se citira u fusnoti treba da bude napisan tako da je najpre
navedeno prezime autora, nakon čega je u zagradama navedena godina izdanja, a zatim stranica.3
3
Stiglitz and Charlton (2005), str. 23. (Regular, 10 pt)
116
Ekonomski vidici, XXVIII (2023), Br 1-2, str. 115-118
Jednačina treba da bude napisana u Equation Editor, sa desnom
numeracijom (arapskim brojevima).
(1)
Z-Y = V
3. NA KRAJU RADA SE DAJE NASLOV RADA NA ENGLESKOM
JEZIKU I APSTRAKT RADA NA ENGLESKOM JEZIKU
THE ARTICLE’S TITLE
(Times New Roman, velikim bold slovima, 12 pt. Prored naslova
treba da bude: Before 12 pt, After 12 pt)
Abstract
The abstract in English shouid be written in Times New Roman, Italic,
11 pt. The text of the abstract should be written after the quote “ Abstract”
(Bold, 11 pt). The abstract line spacing is Single, Before 6pt, After 0 pt.
Key words: (small letters, regular, font 11)
LITERATURA
U literaturi treba navesti samo radove koji su direktno korišćeni u radu
i to abecednim redom prezimena autora.
<Primer knjige:>
Klein, E. (1973), Mathematical Methods, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge.
Abel, A. and Bemanke, B. (2004), Macroeconomics, Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge.
<Primer čianka u časopisu:>
117
Uputstvo za autore
Greenwald, B. and Stiglitz, J. E. (1993), “Financial Market
Imperfections and Business Cycles” Quaterly Journals ofEconomics, Vol.
108, Pp 77 - 114
<Primer za knjigu koja je uređivana:>
Blinder, A. S. (2006), “The Case Against the Case Against Discretionary
Fiscal Policy“, in Kopcke et al. (ed.) (2006), The Macroeconomics ofFiscal
Poli- cy, MIT Press, Cambridge Massachusetts, Pp 25-61
< Primer za workingpaper:>
Li, G. and Smith, P. A. (2009), “New Evidence on 401(k) Borrowing
and House- hold Balance Sheets”, Federal Reserve Board, Washington,
Working paper, No. 19, May2009
< Primer za internet referencu:>
http://www.nber.org/cycles.html [Pristup: 08/02/07]
Pripremljen rad na način izložen u ovom uputstvu u elektronskoj formi
treba poslati na e-mail adresu: deb.ekonomski.vidici@gmail.com
Svi poslati radovi podležu anonimnim recenzijama. Samo pozitivno
recenzirani radovi biće objavljeni.
118
Vesna Martin, Ph.D.