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Excerpted from Abundance
copyright 2012
by Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler
Abundance
The Future
Is Better Than
You Think
PETER H. DIAMANDIS
AND
STEVEN KOTLER
Free Press
New York
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London Toronto
Sydney
New Delhi
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Free Press
A Division of Simon & Schuster, Inc.
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Copyright © 2012 by Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler
All rights reserved, including the right to reproduce this book or portions thereof
in any form whatsoever. For information address Free Press Subsidiary Rights
Department, 1230 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10020.
First Free Press hardcover edition February 2012
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Designed by Maura Fadden Rosenthal/Mspace
Manufactured in the United States of America
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Diamandis, Peter H.
Abundance : the future is better than you think /
Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler. — 1st ed.
p. cm.
1. Technological innovations—Forecasting. 2. Technological forecasting.
3. Technology—Social aspects. I. Kotler, Steven, 1967– II. Title.
T173.8.D536 2012
303.48'3—dc23
2011039926
ISBN 978-1-4516-1421-3
ISBN 978-1-4516-1684-2 (ebook)
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PETER’S DEDICATION
During the writing of this book, my wife, Kristen, gave birth to our two sons, Jet
James Diamandis and Daxton Harry Diamandis. It is to her, and to them, that I
dedicate this book. May Dax and Jet live in a world of true Abundance.
STEVEN’S DEDICATION
When I was younger it was a quintet of men who taught me the importance of dreaming big: Daniel Kamionkowski, Joshua Lauber, Steve Peppercorn, Howard Shack, and
Michael Wharton. When I was older it was a trio of women who taught me how hard
one has to fight to make those dreams a reality: my wife, Joy Nicholson; Dr. Kathleen
Ramsey; and Dr. Patricia Wright. It’s to all of you I dedicate this book.
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Contents
A Note from the Authors ix
PART ONE:
PERSPECTIVE
Chapter One Our Grandest Challenge
Chapter Two Building the Pyramid
3
12
Chapter Three Seeing the Forest Through the Trees
Chapter Four It’s Not as Bad as You Think
PART TWO:
27
38
EXPONENTIAL TECHNOLOGIES
Chapter Five Ray Kurzweil and the Go-Fast Button 51
Chapter Six The Singularity Is Nearer 59
PART THREE:
BUILDING THE BASE OF THE PYRAMID
Chapter Seven The Tools of Cooperation
77
Chapter Eight Water 85
Chapter Nine Feeding Nine Billion
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CONTENTS
viii
PART FOUR:
THE FORCES OF ABUNDANCE
Chapter Ten The DIY Innovator 119
Chapter Eleven The Technophilanthropists
Chapter Twelve The Rising Billion
PART FIVE:
132
140
PEAK OF THE PYRAMID
Chapter Thirteen Energy
155
Chapter Fourteen Education
174
Chapter Fifteen Health Care
189
Chapter Sixteen Freedom
PART SIX:
205
STEERING FASTER
Chapter Seventeen Driving Innovation and Breakthroughs
Chapter Eighteen Risk and Failure
227
Chapter Nineteen Which Way Next?
236
Afterword: Next Step—Join the Abundance Hub
Reference Section Raw Data
241
243
Appendix: Dangers of the Exponentials
Notes
217
293
305
Acknowledgments
357
Index 359
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A Note from the Authors
A Historical Perspective
hese are turbulent times. A quick glance at the headlines is enough to
set anybody on edge and—with the endless media stream that has lately
become our lives—it’s hard to get away from those headlines. Worse, evolution shaped the human brain to be acutely aware of all potential dangers.
As will be explored in later chapters, this dire combination has a profound
impact on human perception: It literally shuts off our ability to take in
good news.
his creates something of a challenge for us, as Abundance is a tale of
good news. At its core, this book examines the hard facts, the science and
engineering, the social trends and economic forces that are rapidly transforming our world. But we are not so naïve as to think that there won’t be
bumps along the way. Some of those will be big bumps: economic meltdowns, natural disasters, terrorist attacks. During these times, the concept
of abundance will seem far-off, alien, even nonsensical, but a quick look at
history shows that progress continues through the good times and the bad.
he twentieth century, for example, witnessed both incredible advancement and unspeakable tragedy. he 1918 influenza epidemic killed fifty
million people, World War II killed another sixty million. here were tsunamis, hurricanes, earthquakes, fires, floods, even plagues of locust. Despite
such unrest, this period also saw infant mortality decrease by 90 percent,
maternal mortality decrease by 99 percent, and, overall, human lifespan
increase by more than 100 percent. In the past two decades, the United
States has experienced tremendous economic upheaval. Yet today, even
the poorest Americans have access to a telephone, television, and a flush
toilet—three luxuries that even the wealthiest couldn’t imagine at the turn
of the last century. In fact, as will soon be clear, using almost any metric
currently available, quality of life has improved more in the past century
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x
A N OT E F RO M T H E AU T H O R S
than ever before. So while there are likely to be plenty of rude, heartbreaking interruptions along the way, as this book will demonstrate, global living
standards will continue to improve regardless of the horrors that dominate
the headlines.
Why You Should Care
his is a book about improving global living standards and the standards
that need the most help are those found in the developing world. his
raises a second question. For those of us living in the developed world, why
should we care? After all, there are plenty of important issues facing us here
at home. Both US unemployment rates and foreclosure rates are soaring,
so humanitarian reasons aside, should we really waste our time working
toward an age of global abundance?
he short answer is yes. Our days of isolation are behind us. In today’s
world, what happens “over there” impacts “over here.” Pandemics do not
respect borders, terrorist organizations operate on a global scale, and overpopulation is everybody’s problem. What’s the best way to solve these issues?
Raise global standards of living. Research shows that the wealthier, more
educated, and healthier a nation, the less violence and civil unrest among
its populace, and the less likely that unrest will spread across its borders. As
such, stable governments are better prepared to stop an infectious disease
outbreak before it becomes a global pandemic. And, as a bonus, there is a
direct correlation between quality of life and population growth rates—as
quality increases, birth rates decrease. he point is this: In today’s hyperlinked world, solving problems anywhere, solves problems everywhere.
Moreover, the greatest tool we have for tackling our grand challenges is
the human mind. he information and communications revolution now
underway is rapidly spreading across the planet. Over the next eight years,
three billion new individuals will be coming online, joining the global conversation, and contributing to the global economy. heir ideas—ideas we’ve
never before had access to—will result in new discoveries, products, and
inventions that will benefit us all.
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A N OT E F RO M T H E AU T H O R S
xi
A Collaboration of Two Minds
Peter and Steven first met in 2000, when Steven wrote an article on the
X PRIZE for GQ magazine. Peter enjoyed Steven’s writing style and
approached him about a book collaboration on the concept of abundance.
Peter had come to this organizing principal through his creation of the
X PRIZE Foundation and Singularity University and his work on innovation and exponential technologies. Steven had been considering similar
ideas and brought his unique perspective and expertise on neuroscience,
psychology, technology, education, energy, and the environment to this
book. his effort is a true partnership, as the ideas and the writing in Abundance were shared equally between Peter and Steven.
Peter H. Diamandis
Santa Monica, California
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Steven Kotler
Chimayo, New Mexico
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PART ONE
PERSPECTIVE
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CHAPTER ONE
OUR GRANDEST CHALLENGE
The Lesson of Aluminum
Gaius Plinius Cecilius Secundus, known as Pliny the Elder, was born in
Italy in the year AD 23. He was a naval and army commander in the early
Roman Empire, later an author, naturalist, and natural philosopher, best
known for his Naturalis Historia, a thirty-seven-volume encyclopedia
describing, well, everything there was to describe. His opus includes a book
on cosmology, another on farming, a third on magic. It took him four volumes to cover world geography, nine for flora and fauna, and another nine
for medicine. In one of his later volumes, Earth, book XXXV, Pliny tells
the story of a goldsmith who brought an unusual dinner plate to the court
of Emperor Tiberius.
he plate was a stunner, made from a new metal, very light, shiny, almost
as bright as silver. he goldsmith claimed he’d extracted it from plain clay,
using a secret technique, the formula known only to himself and the gods.
Tiberius, though, was a little concerned. he emperor was one of Rome’s
great generals, a warmonger who conquered most of what is now Europe
and amassed a fortune of gold and silver along the way. He was also a financial expert who knew the value of his treasure would seriously decline if
people suddenly had access to a shiny new metal rarer than gold. “herefore,” recounts Pliny, “instead of giving the goldsmith the regard expected,
he ordered him to be beheaded.”
his shiny new metal was aluminum, and that beheading marked its loss
to the world for nearly two millennia. It next reappeared during the early
3
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PERSPECTIVE
1800s but was still rare enough to be considered the most valuable metal
in the world. Napoléon III himself threw a banquet for the king of Siam
where the honored guests were given aluminum utensils, while the others
had to make do with gold.
Aluminum’s rarity comes down to chemistry. Technically, behind oxygen and silicon, it’s the third most abundant element in the Earth’s crust,
making up 8.3 percent of the weight of the world. Today it’s cheap, ubiquitous, and used with a throwaway mind-set, but—as Napoléon’s banquet
demonstrates—this wasn’t always the case. Because of aluminum’s high
affinity for oxygen, it never appears in nature as a pure metal. Instead it’s
found tightly bound as oxides and silicates in a claylike material called
bauxite.
While bauxite is 52 percent aluminum, separating out the pure metal
ore was a complex and difficult task. But between 1825 and 1845, Hans
Christian Oersted and Frederick Wohler discovered that heating anhydrous
aluminum chloride with potassium amalgam and then distilling away the
mercury left a residue of pure aluminum. In 1854 Henri Sainte-Claire
Deville created the first commercial process for extraction, driving down
the price by 90 percent. Yet the metal was still costly and in short supply.
It was the creation of a new breakthrough technology known as electrolysis, discovered independently and almost simultaneously in 1886 by
American chemist Charles Martin Hall and Frenchman Paul Héroult, that
changed everything. he Hall-Héroult process, as it is now known, uses
electricity to liberate aluminum from bauxite. Suddenly everyone on the
planet had access to ridiculous amounts of cheap, light, pliable metal.
Save the beheading, there’s nothing too unusual in this story. History’s
littered with tales of once-rare resources made plentiful by innovation.
he reason is pretty straightforward: scarcity is often contextual. Imagine
a giant orange tree packed with fruit. If I pluck all the oranges from the
lower branches, I am effectively out of accessible fruit. From my limited
perspective, oranges are now scarce. But once someone invents a piece of
technology called a ladder, I’ve suddenly got new reach. Problem solved.
Technology is a resource-liberating mechanism. It can make the once
scarce the now abundant.
To expand on this a bit, let’s take a look at the planned city of Masdar, now under construction by the Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company.
Located on the edge of Abu Dhabi, out past the oil refinery and the air-
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OUR GRANDEST CHALLENGE
5
port, Masdar will soon house 50,000 residents, while another 40,000 work
there. hey will do so without producing any waste or releasing any carbon. No cars will be allowed within the city’s perimeter and no fossil fuels
will be consumed inside its walls. Abu Dhabi is the fourth-largest OPEC
producer, with 10 percent of known oil reserves. Fortune magazine once
called it the wealthiest city in the world. All of which makes it interesting
that they’re willing to spend $20 billion of that wealth building the world’s
first post-petroleum city.
In February 2009 I traveled to Abu Dhabi to find out just how interesting. Soon after arriving, I left my hotel, hopped in a cab, and took a ride out
to the Masdar construction site. It was a journey back in time. I was staying
at the Emirates Palace, which is both one of the most expensive hotels ever
built and one of the few places I know of where someone (someone, that is,
with a budget much different from mine) can rent a gold-plated suite for
$11,500 a night. Until the discovery of oil in 1960, Abu Dhabi had been
a community of nomadic herders and pearl divers. As my taxi drove past
the “Welcome to the future home of Masdar” sign, I saw evidence of this.
I was hoping the world’s first post-petroleum city might look something
like a Star Trek set. What I found was a few construction trailers parked in
a barren plot of desert.
During my visit, I had the chance to meet Jay Witherspoon, the technical director for the whole project. Witherspoon explained the challenges
they were facing and the reasons for those challenges. Masdar, he said,
was being built on a conceptual foundation known as One Planet Living
(OPL). To understand OPL, Witherspoon explained, I first had to understand three facts. Fact one: Currently humanity uses 30 percent more of our
planet’s natural resources than we can replace. Fact two: If everyone on this
planet wanted to live with the lifestyle of the average European, we would
need three planets’ worth of resources to pull it off. Fact three: If everyone
on this planet wished to live like an average North American, then we’d
need five planets to pull it off. OPL, then, is a global initiative meant to
combat these shortages.
he OPL initiative, created by BioRegional Development and the World
Wildlife Fund, is really a set of ten core principles. hey stretch from preserving indigenous cultures to the development of cradle-to-cradle sustainable materials, but really they’re all about learning to share. Masdar is one of
the most expensive construction projects in history. he entire city is being
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6
PERSPECTIVE
built for a post-petroleum future where oil shortages and water war are a significant threat. But this is where the lesson of aluminum becomes relevant.
Even in a world without oil, Masdar is still bathed in sunlight. A lot of
sunlight. he amount of solar energy that hits our atmosphere has been well
established at 174 petawatts (1.740 × 10^17 watts), plus or minus 3.5 percent. Out of this total solar flux, approximately half reaches the Earth’s
surface. Since humanity currently consumes about 16 terawatts annually (going by 2008 numbers), there’s over five thousand times more solar
energy falling on the planet’s surface than we use in a year. Once again, it’s
not an issue of scarcity, it’s an issue of accessibility.
Moreover, as far as water wars are concerned, Masdar sits on the Persian
Gulf—which is a mighty aqueous body. he Earth itself is a water planet,
covered 70 percent by oceans. But these oceans, like the Persian Gulf, are
far too salty for consumption or crop production. In fact, 97.3 percent of
all water on this planet is salt water. What if, though, in the same way that
electrolysis easily transformed bauxite into aluminum, a new technology
could desalinate just a minute fraction of our oceans? How thirsty is Masdar then?
he point is this: When seen through the lens of technology, few
resources are truly scarce; they’re mainly inaccessible. Yet the threat of scarcity still dominates our worldview.
The Limits to Growth
Scarcity has been an issue since life first emerged on this planet, but its contemporary incarnation—what many call the “scarcity model”—dates to the
late eighteenth century, when British scholar homas Robert Malthus realized that while food production expands linearly, population grows exponentially. Because of this, Malthus was certain there was going to come a
point in time when we would exceed our capacity to feed ourselves. As he
put it, “he power of population is indefinitely greater than the power of
the Earth to produce subsistence for man.”
In the years since, plenty of thinkers have echoed this concern. By the
early 1960s something of a consensus had been reached. In 1966 Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. pointed out: “Unlike the plagues of the dark ages or
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OUR GRANDEST CHALLENGE
7
contemporary diseases, which we do not understand, the modern plague of
overpopulation is soluble by means we have discovered and with resources
we possess.” Two years later, Stanford University biologist Dr. Paul R.
Ehrlich sounded an even louder alarm with the publication of he Population Bomb. But it was the downstream result of a small meeting held in
1968 that really alerted the world to the depth of the crisis.
hat year, Scottish scientist Alexander King and Italian industrialist
Aurelio Peccei gathered together a multidisciplinary group of top international thinkers at a small villa in Rome. he Club of Rome, as this group
was soon known, had come together to discuss the problems of short-term
thinking in a long-term world.
In 1972 they published the results of that discussion. he Limits to
Growth became an instant classic, selling twelve million copies in thirty
languages, and scaring almost everyone who read it. Using a model developed by the founder of system dynamics, Jay Forrester, the club compared
worldwide population growth rates to global resource consumption rates.
he science behind this model is complicated, the message was not. Quite
simply: we are running out of resources, and we are running out of time.
It’s been over four decades since that report came out. While many of
their more dire predictions have failed to materialize, for the most part, the
years haven’t softened the assessment. Today we are still finding proof of its
veracity most places we look. One in four mammals now faces extinction,
while 90 percent of the large fish are already gone. Our aquifers are starting to dry up, our soil growing too salty for crop production. We’re running out of oil, running low on uranium. Even phosphorus—one of the
principal ingredients in fertilizer—is in short supply. In the time it takes to
read this sentence, one child will die of hunger. By the time you’ve made it
through this paragraph, another will be dead from thirst (or from drinking
dirty water to quench that thirst).
And this, the experts say, is just the warm-up round.
here are now more than seven billion people on the planet. If trends
don’t reverse, by 2050, we’ll be closer to ten billion. Scientists who study the
carrying capacity of the Earth—the measure of how many people can live
here sustainably—have fluctuated massively in their estimations. Wild-eyed
optimists believe it’s close to two billion. Dour pessimists think it might
be three hundred million. But if you agree with even the most uplifting of
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PERSPECTIVE
these predictions—as Dr. Nina Fedoroff, science and technology advisor to
the US secretary of state, recently told reporters—only one conclusion can
be drawn: “We need to decrease the growth rate of the global population;
the planet cannot support many more people.”
Some things, though, are easier said than done.
he most infamous example of top-down population control was the
Nazis’ eugenics program, but there have been a few other nightmares as
well. India performed tubal ligations and vasectomies on thousands of people during the middle 1970s. Some were paid for their sacrifice; others
were simply forced into the procedure. he results drove the ruling party
out of power and created a controversy that still rages today. China, meanwhile, has spent thirty years under a one-child-per-family policy (while it’s
often discussed as a blanket program, this policy actually extends to only
about 36 percent of the population). According to the government, the
results have been 300 million fewer people. According to Amnesty International, the results have been an increase in bribery, corruption, suicide
rates, abortion rates, forced sterilization procedures, and persistent rumors
of infanticide. (A male child is preferable, so rumors hold that newborn
girls are being murdered.) Either way, as our species has sadly discovered,
top-down population control is barbaric, both in theory and in practice.
his seems to leave only one remaining option. If you can’t shed people, you have to stretch the resources those people use. And stretch them
dramatically. How to do this has been a matter of much debate, but these
days the principles of OPL have been put forth as the only viable option.
his option bothered me, but not because I wasn’t committed to the idea of
greater efficiency. Seriously—use less, gain more—who would be opposed
to efficiency? Rather, the source of my concern was that efficiency was being
forwarded as the only option available. But everything I was doing with my
life told me there were additional paths worth pursuing.
he organization I run, the X PRIZE Foundation, is a nonprofit dedicated to bringing about radical breakthroughs for the benefit of humanity
through the design and operation of large incentive-prize competitions.
One month before traveling to Masdar, I’d chaired our annual “Visioneering” board meeting, where maverick inventors like Dean Kamen and Craig
Venter, brilliant technology entrepreneurs such as Larry Page and Elon
Musk, and international business giants like Ratan Tata and Anousheh
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OUR GRANDEST CHALLENGE
9
Ansari were debating how to drive radical breakthroughs in energy, life sciences, education, and global development. hese are all people who have
created world-changing industries where none had existed before. Most of
them accomplished this feat by solving problems that had long been considered unsolvable. Taken together, they are a group whose track record
showed that one of the better responses to the threat of scarcity is not to try
to slice our pie thinner—rather it’s to figure out how to make more pies.
The Possibility of Abundance
Of course, the make-more-pies approach is nothing new, but there are a
few key differences this time around. hese differences will comprise the
bulk of this book, but the short version is that for the first time in history,
our capabilities have begun to catch up to our ambitions. Humanity is now
entering a period of radical transformation in which technology has the
potential to significantly raise the basic standards of living for every man,
woman, and child on the planet. Within a generation, we will be able to
provide goods and services, once reserved for the wealthy few, to any and
all who need them. Or desire them. Abundance for all is actually within our
grasp.
In this modern age of cynicism, many of us bridle in the face of such
proclamation, but elements of this transformation are already underway.
Over the past twenty years, wireless technologies and the Internet have
become ubiquitous, affordable, and available to almost everyone. Africa
has skipped a technological generation, by-passing the landlines that stripe
our Western skies for the wireless way. Mobile phone penetration is growing exponentially, from 2 percent in 2000, to 28 percent in 2009, to an
expected 70 percent in 2013. Already folks with no education and little to
eat have gained access to cellular connectivity unheard of just thirty years
ago. Right now a Masai warrior with a cell phone has better mobile phone
capabilities than the president of the United States did twenty-five years
ago. And if he’s on a smart phone with access to Google, then he has better access to information than the president did just fifteen years ago. By
the end of 2013, the vast majority of humanity will be caught in this same
World Wide Web of instantaneous, low-cost communications and infor-
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PERSPECTIVE
mation. In other words, we are now living in a world of information and
communication abundance.
In a similar fashion, the advancement of new, transformational
technologies—computational systems, networks and sensors, artificial
intelligence, robotics, biotechnology, bioinformatics, 3-D printing, nanotechnology, human-machine interfaces, and biomedical engineering—will
soon enable the vast majority of humanity to experience what only the
affluent have access to today. Even better, these technologies aren’t the only
change agents in play.
here are three additional forces at work, each augmented by the power
of exponentially growing technologies, each with significant, abundanceproducing potential. A Do-It-Yourself (DIY) revolution has been brewing
for the past fifty years, but lately it’s begun to bubble over. In today’s world,
the purview of backyard tinkerers has extended far beyond custom cars
and homebrew computers, and now reaches into once-esoteric fields like
genetics and robotics. What’s more, these days, small groups of motivated
DIY-ers can accomplish what was once the sole province of large corporations and governments. he aerospace giants felt it was impossible, but Burt
Rutan flew into space. Craig Venter tied the mighty US government in the
race to sequence the human genome. he newfound power of these maverick innovators is the first of our three forces.
he second force is money—a lot of money—being spent in a very
particular way. he high-tech revolution created an entirely new breed of
wealthy technophilanthropists who are using their fortunes to solve global,
abundance-related challenges. Bill Gates is crusading against malaria;
Mark Zuckerberg is working to reinvent education; while Pierre and Pam
Omidyar are focused on bringing electricity to the developing world. And
this list goes on and on. Taken together, our second driver is a technophilanthropic force unrivaled in history.
Lastly, there are the very poorest of the poor, the so-called bottom billion, who are finally plugging into the global economy and are poised to
become what I call “the rising billion.” he creation of a global transportation network was the initial step down this path, but it’s the combination
of the Internet, microfinance, and wireless communication technology
that’s transforming the poorest of the poor into an emerging market force.
Acting alone, each of these three forces has enormous potential. But act-
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OUR GRANDEST CHALLENGE
11
ing together, amplified by exponentially growing technologies, the onceunimaginable becomes the now actually possible.
So what is possible?
Imagine a world of nine billion people with clean water, nutritious
food, affordable housing, personalized education, top-tier medical care, and
nonpolluting, ubiquitous energy. Building this better world is humanity’s
grandest challenge. What follows is the story of how we can rise to meet it.
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