Markets Actual Q4/24 Q1/25 Q2/25 Q3/25
Currency 1.25 1.28 1.27 1.27 1.26
Stock Market (points) 8262.08 8183 8106 8029 7952
Government Bond 10Y (%) 4.39 4.46 4.41 4.36 4.31

Overview Actual Q4/24 Q1/25 Q2/25 Q3/25
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.10 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.00 1 1 1.2 1.5
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.30 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6
Inflation Rate (%) 2.30 2.6 2.7 2.8 3
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.60 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3
Interest Rate (%) 4.75 4.75 4.5 4.25 4
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -3462.00 -1700 -1800 -4100 -2700
Current Account (GBP Million) -28397.00 -16500 -14500 -14200 -15800
Manufacturing PMI (points) 48.60 52.3 52 51.7 52
Services PMI (points) 50.00 53.3 52.5 51.6 52.7
Business Confidence (points) -24.00 -3 4 7 4
Retail Sales MoM (%) -0.70 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
Consumer Confidence (points) -18.00 -15 -12 -10 -7
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.30 -5.5
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 97.60 102
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.40 -3.3

GDP Actual Q4/24 Q1/25 Q2/25 Q3/25
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.10 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.00 1 1 1.2 1.5
GDP Constant Prices (GBP Million) 640002.00 638143 642584 646764 649602
Gross National Product (GBP Million) 694291.00 690009 696943 702622 704705
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GBP Million) 115101.00 112959 114311 115199 116828
Monthly GDP MoM (%) -0.10 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2
Monthly GDP YoY (%) 1.00 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.4
GDP from Agriculture (GBP Million) 4242.00 4238 4221 4245 4306
GDP from Mining (GBP Million) 8440.00 8756 8568 8542 8567
GDP from Transport (GBP Million) 21198.00 20341 21062 21531 21516
GDP from Manufacturing (GBP Million) 51424.00 51842 52205 51952 52195
GDP from Public Administration (GBP Million) 29633.00 29626 29615 29881 30077
GDP from Construction (GBP Million) 35461.00 35826 35590 35585 35993
GDP from Services (GBP Million) 461829.00 458797 462913 466768 468756
GDP (USD Billion) 3340.03 3380
GDP per Capita (USD) 47005.12 47569
GDP per Capita PPP (USD) 54126.14 54776
Full Year GDP Growth (%) 0.30 1.2

Labour Actual Q4/24 Q1/25 Q2/25 Q3/25
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.30 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6
Employed Persons (Thousand) 33313.00 33400 33200 33100 33200
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 1805.70 18100 18350 18500 18620
Claimant Count Change (Thousand) 26.70 -5 5 15 18
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 78.20 78.3 78.5 78.6 78.5
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 13.70 13.6 13.8 13.9 14
Labour Costs (points) 110.50 113 114 114 113
Productivity (points) 99.10 102 102 102 103
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 831.00 820 780 760 770
Wages (GBP/Week) 696.00 695 706 709 715
Wages in Manufacturing (GBP/Week) 768.00 756 786 785 789
Wage Growth (%) 4.30 3.7 3.2 2.9 2.7
Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (%) 4.80 3.8 3.6 3.2 3
Employment Change (Thousand) 220.00 -130 -20 65 25
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 32.10 32 31.9 32 32
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) -5.20 20 35 40 35
Minimum Wages (GBP/Hour) 11.44 11.44
Population (Million) 68.27 68.43

Prices Actual Q4/24 Q1/25 Q2/25 Q3/25
Inflation Rate (%) 2.30 2.6 2.7 2.8 3
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.60 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 135.00 136 137 138 138
Core Inflation Rate (%) 3.30 3 2.8 2.6 2.5
Core Consumer Prices (points) 132.10 132 132 134 135
GDP Deflator (points) 110.70 111 112 113 114
Producer Prices Change (%) -0.80 0.8 1.5 2.5 2
Food Inflation (%) 1.90 2.4 2.1 2.2 2
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%) 0.00 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1
PPI Input YoY (%) -2.30 -1 0.2 0.9 1.7
PPI Input (%) 0.10 -1.3 -0.3 0.9 1.1
Core Producer Prices MoM (%) 0.30 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2
Core Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.40 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1
Core Producer Prices YoY (%) 1.70 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1
CPI Transportation (points) 133.50 134 134 134 134
Producer Prices (points) 135.80 137 139 140 139
Core Producer Prices (points) 136.60 137 138 139 139
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 140.60 141 144 141 141
Retail Price Index (%) 3.40 1.5 1.1 0.8 1

Money Actual Q4/24 Q1/25 Q2/25 Q3/25
Interest Rate (%) 4.75 4.75 4.5 4.25 4
Interbank Rate (%) 5.30 5.3 5.05 4.8 4.55
Money Supply M2 (GBP Million) 3039644.00 3016000 3013000 3015000 3019000
Loans to Private Sector (GBP Million) 2710502.00 2721311 2731733 2743028 2751160
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 4.75 4.75 4.5 4.25 4
Lending Rate (%) 5.25 5.25 5 4.75 4.5
Private Debt to GDP (%) 160.90 165

Trade Actual Q4/24 Q1/25 Q2/25 Q3/25
Balance of Trade (GBP Million) -3462.00 -1700 -1800 -4100 -2700
Current Account (GBP Million) -28397.00 -16500 -14500 -14200 -15800
Exports (GBP Million) 68204.00 73100 72800 71000 72500
Imports (GBP Million) 71666.00 74800 74600 75100 75200
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 636.00 650 700 720 740
Goods Trade Balance (GBP Million) -16321.00 -16200 -15900 -15500 -15300
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.30 -5.5

Government Actual Q4/24 Q1/25 Q2/25 Q3/25
Government Budget Value (GBP Million) -17354.00 -11300 -12200 -14200 -15200
Government Debt (GBP Billion) 2791.50 2790 2810 2830 2840
Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP Million) -17354.00 -10400 -11200 -13400 -14400
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 97.60 102
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.40 -3.3
Government Spending to GDP (% of GDP) 44.50 44.2

Business Actual Q4/24 Q1/25 Q2/25 Q3/25
Manufacturing PMI (points) 48.60 52.3 52 51.7 52
Services PMI (points) 50.00 53.3 52.5 51.6 52.7
Business Confidence (points) -24.00 -3 4 7 4
Industrial Production Mom (%) -0.50 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1
Industrial Production (%) -1.80 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.7
Manufacturing Production (%) -0.70 0.5 1.2 2 2.3
Factory Orders (Net Balance) -19.00 -5 1 4 3
Bankruptcies (Companies) 1747.00 2200 2150 2420 2100
Corporate Profits (GBP Million) 145102.00 141000 147000 149000 143000
Car Production (Units) 70039.00 84900 76700 70300 89250
Car Registrations (Units) 144288.00 142600 314000 182000 290000
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (%) 0.30 2.8 2.2 2 1.9
Composite PMI (points) 49.90 54 53 52.2 53.5
Private Investment (%) 1.20 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.6
Leading Economic Index (%) 0.10 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3

Consumer Actual Q4/24 Q1/25 Q2/25 Q3/25
Retail Sales MoM (%) -0.70 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
Consumer Confidence (points) -18.00 -15 -12 -10 -7
Retail Sales YoY (%) 2.40 3.5 2.7 2.5 1.3
Consumer Spending (GBP Million) 389499.00 388606 390896 392352 395341
Disposable Personal Income (GBP Million) 410995.00 403643 409955 415927 417160
Personal Savings (%) 10.00 9.1 8.3 7.5 7.1
Net Lending to Individuals MoM (GBP Million) 3771.00 3500 3900 4100 4200
Consumer Credit (GBP Million) 1231.00 1268 1429 900 1249
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.75 1.76 1.79 1.82 1.84
Cbi Distributive Trades (Net Balance) -6.00 4 9 15 13

Housing Actual Q4/24 Q1/25 Q2/25 Q3/25
Housing Starts (units) 22990.00 31000 34500 37000 38500
Construction Output (%) -0.40 1.6 2.2 2.3 1.8
Housing Index (points) 507.00 501 508 517 526
Mortgage Approvals (Thousand) 65.65 61.5 62 62.4 63
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (%) 2.40 4.1 4.7 4.3 3.7
House Price Index YoY (%) 3.90 1.2 2.1 3.7 4
Home Loans (GBP Million) 2541.00 2200 2350 2180 2220
Nationwide Housing Prices (points) 530.12 520 532 550 552
Mortgage Rate (%) 7.69 7.69 7.44 7.19 6.94
Construction PMI (points) 54.30 53.7 52 52.3 52.5
Construction Orders (%) -9.40 15 10 7 6