The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa dropped by 0.7% month-over-month in August 2024, following a 0.7% rise in the previous month. This marked the sharpest contraction since March, driven primarily by declines in seven of the ten available component time series, which outweighed gains in the remaining three. The most significant negative contributors were a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate of the real M1 money supply and a drop in South Africa’s USD-denominated export commodity price index. On the positive side, the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index improved and the number of approved residential building plans increased. source: South African Reserve Bank

Leading Economic Index South Africa decreased 0.70 percent in August of 2024 over the same month in the previous year. Leading Economic Index in South Africa averaged 0.20 percent from 1960 until 2024, reaching an all time high of 4.80 percent in June of 2020 and a record low of -6.40 percent in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - South Africa Leading Economic Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on November of 2024.

Leading Economic Index South Africa decreased 0.70 percent in August of 2024 over the same month in the previous year. Leading Economic Index in South Africa is expected to be 1.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM is projected to trend around 0.70 percent in 2025 and 1.00 percent in 2026, according to our econometric models.




Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2024-09-25 07:00 AM
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
Jul 0.7% -0.1% -0.2%
2024-10-22 07:00 AM
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
Aug -0.7% 0.7% -0.3%
2024-11-26 07:00 AM
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
Sep -0.7% 1.5%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Bankruptcies 117.00 128.00 Companies Sep 2024
Business Confidence 45.00 38.00 points Dec 2024
Capacity Utilization 77.90 78.40 percent Jun 2024
Car Registrations 34228.00 30218.00 Units Oct 2024
Changes in Inventories 9561.00 3762.00 ZAR Million Jun 2024
SACCI Business Confidence 110.20 111.50 points Sep 2024
Composite Leading Indicator 99.81 99.71 points Oct 2024
Corruption Index 41.00 43.00 Points Dec 2023
Corruption Rank 83.00 72.00 Dec 2023
Electricity Production 19879.00 20838.00 Gigawatt-hour Sep 2024
Gold Production YoY -3.70 -4.60 percent Sep 2024
Manufacturing Production YoY -0.80 -0.80 percent Sep 2024
Manufacturing Production MoM 0.00 -0.70 percent Sep 2024
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM -0.70 0.70 percent Aug 2024
Mining Production MoM 4.70 0.30 percent Sep 2024
Total New Vehicle Sales 47940.00 44080.00 Units Oct 2024

South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
In South Africa, the Composite Leading Business Cycle Indicator examines the direction in which real economic activity is moving, in real time. It is calculated on the basis of the following components: building plans approved, new passenger vehicles sold, commodity price index for main export commodities, index of prices of all classes of shares traded on the JSE, job advertisements, volume of orders in manufacturing, real M1, average hours worked per factory worker in manufacturing, interest rate spread, composite leading business cycle indicator of the major trading-partner countries, business confidence index, gross operating surplus as a percentage of GDP. The index has a base value of 100 as of 2010.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-0.70 0.70 4.80 -6.40 1960 - 2024 percent Monthly
SA


News Stream
South Africa Leading Index Returns to Contraction
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa dropped by 0.7% month-over-month in August 2024, following a 0.7% rise in the previous month. This marked the sharpest contraction since March, driven primarily by declines in seven of the ten available component time series, which outweighed gains in the remaining three. The most significant negative contributors were a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate of the real M1 money supply and a drop in South Africa’s USD-denominated export commodity price index. On the positive side, the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index improved and the number of approved residential building plans increased.
2024-10-22
South Africa Leading Index Rebounds in July
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa climbed by 0.7% month-on-month in July 2024, recovering from a downwardly revised 0.1% fall in the previous month. This marked the first increase in economic activity in three months driven largely by rises in six of the ten component time series outweighed decreases in the remaining four. The largest positive contributors were accelerations in the six-month smoothed growth rates in the job advertisement space and the number of new passenger vehicles sold. The largest negative contributors were a narrowing of the interest rate spread and a decrease in South Africa’s US-dollar-denominated export commodity price index.
2024-09-25
South Africa Leading Index Falls for 2nd Month
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa fell by 0.4% month-on-month in June 2024, following a 1% drop in the previous month. This marked the second consecutive month of decreased economic activity, driven largely by declines in five of the seven component time series, which outweighed the improvements in the other two. The major negative factors included a reduction in approved residential building plans and a narrowing of the interest rate spread. Conversely, the only positive contributions came from increases in the six-month smoothed growth rates of the real M1 money supply and the number of new passenger vehicles sold.
2024-08-20