Starship Flight 8: Is a February launch still achievable?

SpaceX hasn’t stopped working on getting its Starship Flight 8 hardware ready to fly, but does it have a chance to launch by the end of February? If previous timelines are to be believed, it seems unlikely, and that’s before the FAA releases the rocket from its mishap investigation.

Flight 8 hardware static fired

The three pieces of hardware that SpaceX will need ready for Starship Flight 8’s launch are Booster 15, Ship 34, and, of course, the launch pad. All three are making progress toward being ready to fly, but they’re not 100% ready yet.

Both Booster 15 and Ship 34 have completed their static firings and have returned to the production site. Both went off overall well, although there has been no official word on whether they were successful, except for posts on social media about their completion. These are the closest we get to any official successful statements from SpaceX – unless Elon Musk shares something.

For Pad A, work continues to get the pad ready for launch. This is usually the leading item for each launch attempt. Months of work have to go into refurbishing the pad between launches. This will likely be something that is reduced with Starbase‘s Pad B design as Starship requires quick turnarounds to achieve its lunar and Martian goals.

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Once we see the scaffolding removed from Pad A, that will be a key sign that the pad is nearing readiness for Starship Flight 8.

From a hardware standpoint, there is still a good chance SpaceX is ready to launch by the end of February. However, it usually takes a few weeks from static fire to seeing the stages arrive at the launch site for stacking, so that could reduce that likelihood.

Regulatory road blocks

Starship Flight 7 was the first Starship launch that wasn’t driven by the FAA for its timeline. So being back, awaiting the FAA’s approval to launch feels almost like home.

However, while previous FAA-led delays felt unnecessary or annoying, Flight 7’s investigations are 100% warranted. Starship Flight 7 concluded well before SpaceX intended it to, making it its first true failed flight. This triggered the FAA to mandate a Mishap Investigation led by SpaceX. This obviously sounds worse than what it is, as SpaceX would have conducted one anyway. However, the FAA will have to sign off on the investigation before granting SpaceX permission to launch again.

The second investigation is into the debris from Starship Flight 7 falling outside its designated restricted zones. While early reports from that investigation showed no injuries and only minor damage to a vehicle, the falling debris caused mass disruption to airline traffic in the area. Flights were delayed on the ground, diverted in the air, or placed in holding patterns until it was deemed safe to cross the debris field. Some flights were forced to take the risk and fly through the debris field due to low fuel. Thankfully, no airplanes were hit by any debris.

These investigations are likely the greatest threat to a February launch, as they could take a few more weeks to finalize and be signed off on by the FAA. It doesn’t look like, for now at least, that Elon Musk’s newfound power in the Trump Administration has been used to push through any early Starship approval. However, we’ll have to wait and see how far into March Starship Flight 8 slips with ready hardware before Musk begins to throw much more real threats, like he has done in the past.