The forecast consequences of climate change on human health are profound, especially in low- and ... more The forecast consequences of climate change on human health are profound, especially in low- and middle-income countries and among the most disadvantaged populations. Innovative policy tools are needed to address the adverse health effects of climate change. Cash transfers are established policy tools for protecting population health before, during and after climate-related disasters. For example, the Ethiopian Productive Safety Net Programme provides cash transfers to reduce food insecurity resulting from droughts. We propose extending cash transfer interventions to more proactive measures to improve health in the context of climate change. We identify promising cash transfer schemes that could be used to prevent the adverse health consequences of climatic hazards. Cash transfers for using emission-free, active modes of transport - e.g. cash for cycling to work - could prevent future adverse health consequences by contributing to climate change mitigation and, at the same time, imp...
Australian and New Zealand journal of public health, Jan 10, 2015
Modelling the relationship between weather, climate and infectious diseases can help identify hig... more Modelling the relationship between weather, climate and infectious diseases can help identify high-risk periods and provide understanding of the determinants of longer-term trends. We provide a detailed examination of the non-linear and delayed association between temperature and salmonellosis in three New Zealand cities (Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch). Salmonella notifications were geocoded to the city of residence for the reported case. City-specific associations between weekly maximum temperature and the onset date for reported salmonella infections (1997-2007) were modelled using non-linear distributed lag models, while controlling for season and long-term trends. Relatively high temperatures were positively associated with infection risk in Auckland (n=3,073) and Christchurch (n=880), although the former showed evidence of a more immediate relationship with exposure to high temperatures. There was no significant association between temperature and salmonellosis risk in ...
This paper describes an investigation of the patterns of self-reported asthma symptoms in relatio... more This paper describes an investigation of the patterns of self-reported asthma symptoms in relation to demographic and environmental factors in New Zealand. The subjects of the study consisted of 25,000 adults aged 20-44 who responded to a postal questionnaire. For each respondent, physical and social environmental conditions in the meshblock of residence were estimated using a Geographic Information System. The measured outcome was the 12-month prevalence of asthma. An artificial neural-network was constructed to model this outcome on the basis of the 13 environmental and demographic inputs, using a randomly selected sample of the data and tested on the remaining set of data. The modelling results indicated that there was different behaviour for the 20-25 and 26-44 age-groups, and separate neural-network models were constructed for each of these two age-groups. A set of inference rules were then extracted from each of the two neural networks. When applied to test data, the inference...
To examine geographical variations in the prevalence of asthma symptoms in a random population sa... more To examine geographical variations in the prevalence of asthma symptoms in a random population sample of New Zealand adults aged 20-44 years. A one page asthma symptom questionnaire was sent to 31470 people aged 20-44 years. The questionnaire asked about respiratory symptoms, asthma attacks and asthma treatment. Those who had not responded after two reminder postcards were followed with a telephone call where possible. A response rate of 82% (25664) was achieved. The 12 month period prevalence of asthma (defined as woken by shortness of breath, or an attack of asthma in the past year, or current asthma medication) was 15.2% overall, but was higher in females (17.0%) than in males (13.2%); the prevalence was 22.1% in Maori, 20.6% in Pacific Islanders and 14.3% in non Polynesians. In North Island electorates, the highest age and ethinicity standardised prevalences were found in some of the electorates in the Auckland and Wellington urban regions although prevalence was also high in so...
The context for this study is public concern about aerial spraying of biological insecticides ove... more The context for this study is public concern about aerial spraying of biological insecticides over Auckland, New Zealand between January 2002 and May 2004. We analysed childhood asthma hospital admissions for the whole of New Zealand, July 1999 - December 2004 using a spatial scan statistic. We found spatial clustering of asthma admissions in many New Zealand cities, and spatiotemporal
Cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis have been recognized by the WHO as 'Neglected Diseases'.... more Cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis have been recognized by the WHO as 'Neglected Diseases'. Minimal attention has been paid to the spatial and temporal distribution of disease incidence patterns. Using disease notification data, we detected spatio-temporal clusters of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis across three time periods: (i) 1997-2000, (ii) 2001-2004, (iii) 2005-2008. There was substantial variation in the geographical location and timing of recurrent cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis clusters. Statistically significant (P < 0·05) giardiasis clusters tended to occur in predominantly urban areas with little apparent seasonal influence, while statistically significant cryptosporidiosis clusters were detected in spring, in areas with high livestock land use. The location and timing of cryptosporidiosis clusters suggest an influence of livestock production practices, while urban exposures and host behaviour are likely to influence giardiasis clusters. This approach provide...
Although fuel poverty is becoming increasingly researched, there is very limited information curr... more Although fuel poverty is becoming increasingly researched, there is very limited information currently available on the experiences of and effects on children living in fuel poverty. This paper examines the consequences of using prepayment metering, a payment method typically used by low-income households, on households with children. We present new results from two postal survey datasets, the Electricity Prepayment Meter Users' Survey undertaken in late 2010 and the follow-up survey undertaken in 2011, which explore the outcomes of prepayment metering and living on low-incomes for households with children. Among prepayment consumers, households with children experience greater levels of hardship. Households with children were statistically significantly more likely to cut back on grocery spending, and indicated greater levels of financial difficulty than childless households. Although there were no differences between the groups for most indicators of poor thermal comfort level...
The forecast consequences of climate change on human health are profound, especially in low- and ... more The forecast consequences of climate change on human health are profound, especially in low- and middle-income countries and among the most disadvantaged populations. Innovative policy tools are needed to address the adverse health effects of climate change. Cash transfers are established policy tools for protecting population health before, during and after climate-related disasters. For example, the Ethiopian Productive Safety Net Programme provides cash transfers to reduce food insecurity resulting from droughts. We propose extending cash transfer interventions to more proactive measures to improve health in the context of climate change. We identify promising cash transfer schemes that could be used to prevent the adverse health consequences of climatic hazards. Cash transfers for using emission-free, active modes of transport - e.g. cash for cycling to work - could prevent future adverse health consequences by contributing to climate change mitigation and, at the same time, imp...
Australian and New Zealand journal of public health, Jan 10, 2015
Modelling the relationship between weather, climate and infectious diseases can help identify hig... more Modelling the relationship between weather, climate and infectious diseases can help identify high-risk periods and provide understanding of the determinants of longer-term trends. We provide a detailed examination of the non-linear and delayed association between temperature and salmonellosis in three New Zealand cities (Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch). Salmonella notifications were geocoded to the city of residence for the reported case. City-specific associations between weekly maximum temperature and the onset date for reported salmonella infections (1997-2007) were modelled using non-linear distributed lag models, while controlling for season and long-term trends. Relatively high temperatures were positively associated with infection risk in Auckland (n=3,073) and Christchurch (n=880), although the former showed evidence of a more immediate relationship with exposure to high temperatures. There was no significant association between temperature and salmonellosis risk in ...
This paper describes an investigation of the patterns of self-reported asthma symptoms in relatio... more This paper describes an investigation of the patterns of self-reported asthma symptoms in relation to demographic and environmental factors in New Zealand. The subjects of the study consisted of 25,000 adults aged 20-44 who responded to a postal questionnaire. For each respondent, physical and social environmental conditions in the meshblock of residence were estimated using a Geographic Information System. The measured outcome was the 12-month prevalence of asthma. An artificial neural-network was constructed to model this outcome on the basis of the 13 environmental and demographic inputs, using a randomly selected sample of the data and tested on the remaining set of data. The modelling results indicated that there was different behaviour for the 20-25 and 26-44 age-groups, and separate neural-network models were constructed for each of these two age-groups. A set of inference rules were then extracted from each of the two neural networks. When applied to test data, the inference...
To examine geographical variations in the prevalence of asthma symptoms in a random population sa... more To examine geographical variations in the prevalence of asthma symptoms in a random population sample of New Zealand adults aged 20-44 years. A one page asthma symptom questionnaire was sent to 31470 people aged 20-44 years. The questionnaire asked about respiratory symptoms, asthma attacks and asthma treatment. Those who had not responded after two reminder postcards were followed with a telephone call where possible. A response rate of 82% (25664) was achieved. The 12 month period prevalence of asthma (defined as woken by shortness of breath, or an attack of asthma in the past year, or current asthma medication) was 15.2% overall, but was higher in females (17.0%) than in males (13.2%); the prevalence was 22.1% in Maori, 20.6% in Pacific Islanders and 14.3% in non Polynesians. In North Island electorates, the highest age and ethinicity standardised prevalences were found in some of the electorates in the Auckland and Wellington urban regions although prevalence was also high in so...
The context for this study is public concern about aerial spraying of biological insecticides ove... more The context for this study is public concern about aerial spraying of biological insecticides over Auckland, New Zealand between January 2002 and May 2004. We analysed childhood asthma hospital admissions for the whole of New Zealand, July 1999 - December 2004 using a spatial scan statistic. We found spatial clustering of asthma admissions in many New Zealand cities, and spatiotemporal
Cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis have been recognized by the WHO as 'Neglected Diseases'.... more Cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis have been recognized by the WHO as 'Neglected Diseases'. Minimal attention has been paid to the spatial and temporal distribution of disease incidence patterns. Using disease notification data, we detected spatio-temporal clusters of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis across three time periods: (i) 1997-2000, (ii) 2001-2004, (iii) 2005-2008. There was substantial variation in the geographical location and timing of recurrent cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis clusters. Statistically significant (P < 0·05) giardiasis clusters tended to occur in predominantly urban areas with little apparent seasonal influence, while statistically significant cryptosporidiosis clusters were detected in spring, in areas with high livestock land use. The location and timing of cryptosporidiosis clusters suggest an influence of livestock production practices, while urban exposures and host behaviour are likely to influence giardiasis clusters. This approach provide...
Although fuel poverty is becoming increasingly researched, there is very limited information curr... more Although fuel poverty is becoming increasingly researched, there is very limited information currently available on the experiences of and effects on children living in fuel poverty. This paper examines the consequences of using prepayment metering, a payment method typically used by low-income households, on households with children. We present new results from two postal survey datasets, the Electricity Prepayment Meter Users' Survey undertaken in late 2010 and the follow-up survey undertaken in 2011, which explore the outcomes of prepayment metering and living on low-incomes for households with children. Among prepayment consumers, households with children experience greater levels of hardship. Households with children were statistically significantly more likely to cut back on grocery spending, and indicated greater levels of financial difficulty than childless households. Although there were no differences between the groups for most indicators of poor thermal comfort level...
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Papers by Simon Hales