NCAA rule changes around cut-blocking in football made it considerably more difficult for service academies to execute their offenses.
Linemen who are routinely 20-40 pounds lighter than their competition in the trenches no longer had a technical advantage.
The result for Army and Navy was a rough two-year stretch in which the prestigious schools combined to go 21-27 with zero bowl bids.
But there is reason for optimism heading into the 2024 season — Army’s first in the American Athletic Conference.
Let’s take a look at two teams I expect will go bowling this season.
Army (5.5 win total)
The Black Knights were searching for an answer to their blocking problems last season, so coach Jeff Monken brought in offensive coordinator Drew Thatcher to shake things up.
Thatcher’s shotgun attack promised more in the passing game without fully veering away from Army’s option identity. It was a disaster.
The Cadets scored just 14 points per game against FBS opponents through the end of October.
In November, Monken went back to the flexbone attack he’d relied upon his entire career.
Army responded, winning its last four games behind a strong running game (244 yards per game) that was suddenly playing keep away again.
During a six-year run from 2016 to 2021, the Cadets finished outside the top five in time of possession just once and appeared in five bowl games.
Quarterback Bryson Daily returns and is a bull at 225 pounds. An experienced line that finished 12th in line yards could be even better.
Nate Woody’s defense was solid last year because it didn’t get gouged by big plays, while finishing inside the top 40 in red-zone defense.
Eight new starters have a lot to live up to on that side of the ball.
The schedule is much more forgiving than last year’s gauntlet.
The Cadets will face just two quality quarterbacks in their first nine games (Rice, UAB) and both come to West Point.
Recommendation: Over 5.5 wins (-150, FanDuel)
Navy (5.5 win total)
The Midshipmen struggled mightily last season on offense, finishing 116th in rushing success rate. By season’s end, Navy had averaged just 17.7 points per game (125th).
Coach Brian Newberry wasted little time addressing this issue, shaking up his coaching staff. His new offensive coordinator, Drew Cronic, arrives from Mercer after turning the Bears into a fearsome FCS program.
Cronic’s hybrid offense is built around Wing-T principles.
The “Millennial Wing T” will marry flexbone/triple-option football with some of the modern eye candy that made Coastal Carolina so difficult to defend in recent years.
You can expect lots of misdirection, jet sweeps and RPO elements.
Blake Horvath will run the offense behind an experienced line, and he has a potential star at fullback in Alex Tecza.
Slotback Eli Heidenreich could be in line for a breakout season after averaging nearly 8 yards per carry during limited action last fall. He played wide receiver in high school and could see action in Cronic’s short passing game.
Betting on College Football?
- Check out the best College Football betting sites
- Read our expert’s guide on how to bet on College Football
- Get the latest College Football National Championship winner odds
Defensively, the secondary has a chance to be one of the better units in the AAC.
After finishing last season 66th against the pass, the back end of the defense returns a load of experience, starting with cornerbacks Dashaun Peele and Andrew Duhart.
We’ll see if the Midshipmen can hold up in the run game after losing nose guard Donald Berniard Jr. and his 42 career starts.
If it’s in the same neighborhood against the run (33rd), this will be a bowl-quality defense.
Bucknell and Temple both visit Annapolis early, before Navy travels to UAB and Air Force.
After that, the Midshipmen host Charlotte for homecoming. With the exception of Air Force, none of those teams can stop the run.
I expect a hot start for this offense.
Recommendation: Over 5.5 wins (+120, FanDuel)