The fighting in Ukraine, like all wars, will eventually come to an end.
The question is, on whose terms — and whether the peace that emerges can be sustained.
In his fixation on helping Ukraine in small doses for “as long as it takes,” President Biden is setting Kyiv up for failure, and NATO for a major strategic setback.
Ahead of the alliance’s summit in Washington, which seems unlikely to bring major breakthroughs for Ukraine, the US administration is delivering a new package of military aid from the $60 billion supplemental bill passed in April.
The tranche of aid, worth $2.3 billion, includes “air defense inceptors, anti-tank weapons and other critical munitions from US inventories,” according to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.
Air defenses to protect Ukraine’s cities and infrastructure from Russian bombing and a resupply of munitions constitute the bare minimum that allow Ukraine to hold current lines and protect its population from Russian depredations.
Already, the country has lost almost half of its energy generating capacity, or some 9.2 gigawatts, because of Russian attacks — and electricity imports and generators can cover only a fraction of the losses, setting Ukraine up for a very harsh winter.
The attacks come with relentless pressure on the frontlines — especially in Donbas, where Russian advances are small and slow, but consistent.
In response, Ukrainians must be allowed to leverage their own strengths.
Patriot and similar missile systems help secure Ukraine’s skies, but the Biden administration must also allow Ukraine to inflict asymmetrical pain on Russia.
The Ukrainians are capable of denying Russia’s military presence in Crimea, degrading its logistical and supply lines, and striking against its airports and other assets using long-range, high-precision systems — many of which Washington continues to keep away from Ukraine’s reach.
With the meltdown of Joe Biden’s campaign and with Donald Trump’s pledge to end the war before he even arrives in office, the window for decisive action by the administration is narrowing.
All people of good will want the war to end as soon as possible, but rewarding Putin by seeking to trade Ukrainian territory for peace is both wrong — as it incentivizes similar behavior by Iran, China, or North Korea — and short-sighted.
A deal that can stick, thereby securing Ukraine’s future as an independent nation and advancing US interests in Europe, must be negotiated from a position of strength, beginning with Ukrainian successes on the battlefield.
There have been more than a few — most notably in the Black Sea.
With ATACMS, JASAMS, or Taurus systems, and with F-16s or Mirage 2000s, Ukrainians could throw much more sand into Russia’s war machine, if we allow them.
Whether and how he decides to terminate his re-election bid, Biden would be well-advised to think about his legacy — and also about setting up his successor, whoever it might be, for success.
Making a big push for arming Ukraine now and allowing it to put points on the board in the coming months is key.
No less important is an understanding, both by Democrats and Republicans, that any future deal will have to be underwritten by the United States and our allies.
Vladimir Putin cannot be trusted, but he can be deterred through mechanisms of collective security, such as NATO.
Next week’s summit, therefore, cannot be a quiet celebration of the alliance’s 75th anniversary, but must provide a decisive dose of assistance to the Ukrainians and lay the groundwork for Ukraine’s accession as soon as the fighting stops.
A failure to do so not only threatens Ukraine’s survival, but leaves some of our best and most reliable allies, such as Poland and the Baltic states, with no choice but to look for alternatives: think unchecked nuclear proliferation, formation of unstable regional alliances, or accommodation of adversaries like China.
For those who care about American power in the world and our ability to shape Europe’s future, the time to act is now.
Dalibor Rohac is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington DC. Twitter: @DaliborRohac.